The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - November 03, 2025


Liberal approval down 17% after series of Carney FAILS!


Episode Stats


Length

10 minutes

Words per minute

168.34518

Word count

1,744

Sentence count

78

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Claypool explains why the Liberal government's approval rating has dropped significantly since the apology to Ronald Reagan and the Doug Ford ad in the wake of it, and why it's not going to get any better than this.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.120 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here with another video on the whiteboard.
00:00:05.260 I want to make this one a bit shorter, so I just want to show you guys two key statistics
00:00:10.740 that really demonstrate the precarious position that Prime Minister Mark Carney and his liberal
00:00:16.260 government are in. Because the problem for this liberal government compared to previous
00:00:21.660 Trudeau liberal governments is that this one was elected on really, really big promises.
00:00:27.920 If you think back to 2015, Trudeau actually set him up with the perfect promises to make
00:00:33.300 getting into office. He's going to run deficits and he's going to invest more in the economy.
00:00:38.220 One is literally saying, I'm going to be fiscally irresponsible, but don't worry,
00:00:42.240 I'm investing in the economy. It's actually hard to kind of break those promises because they're so
00:00:47.160 vague and dumb that most people won't really know when the promise has been broken. Yeah,
00:00:52.800 we all kind of know the promise was broken from the start because he's claiming that this is going
00:00:56.920 to bring prosperity. And if you know Economics 101, it's just not. But Carney, on the other hand,
00:01:02.760 came in saying he was going to get a trade deal signed, that he was going to spend less and invest
00:01:07.420 more and we have a massive deficit. And of many other areas of policy where they're promising
00:01:13.240 prosperity and then they are basically delivering complete nothingness. And then also basically
00:01:19.440 reintroducing a bunch of old Trudeau liberal policies around hate speech and censorship and whatnot
00:01:25.360 that should have a lot of Canadians realizing that this is not a new, more business-focused
00:01:31.000 liberal government like Carney had been marketing as. What I want to show you guys on this chart is
00:01:36.420 just the government approval ratings in the abacus poll over time. I want to take you guys back
00:01:41.920 to June of this year because back in June, this government, shortly after being elected,
00:01:48.260 was riding pretty high when it came to people's perception of them. Back in June, the approval
00:01:55.560 rating of the Carney liberal government was literally 53%. That is fantastic when it comes to Canadian
00:02:06.140 politics in a multi-party system where inevitably parties win with only 43% of the vote like the liberals
00:02:13.820 did. And they are not only getting all their people to say that they approve of them, they are getting
00:02:18.160 10% more Canadians who also say that they approve of them. And back in June, the amount of people who
00:02:23.880 disapproved of the liberal government was only at the time 23%. Now, that was a while ago, and I can tell
00:02:34.780 you things have changed quite a bit. Now, when I say things change, people sometimes think, oh, these two
00:02:40.980 numbers have to reverse or it isn't significant. No, if you have had a massive reduction in your
00:02:47.820 margin over a period of just a few months, that is statistically significant because generally the
00:02:54.400 public's opinion of you is going to take a long time to change unless you've done stupid things that
00:02:59.640 are going to cause them to change their opinion quite quickly. And the Carney liberals, by not getting
00:03:05.000 an actual trade deal signed, made this move quite a bit. So this, as you can do, anyone who can do math
00:03:11.280 can tell, this was a plus 30% approval for the government. And the government is usually easier
00:03:19.760 to hate than the prime minister themselves because, hey, it's harder to hate a person. But when it comes
00:03:25.180 to the government, people will be more honest saying that they like them or don't like them. People
00:03:28.660 back in June, really like these guys. But flash forward to Mark Carney not getting a trade deal
00:03:34.820 signed and looking like a complete fool in the aftermath of this Ronald Reagan, Doug Ford ad thing.
00:03:40.500 And we've had these two numbers tighten up significantly. So now in October, the last poll in October,
00:03:48.000 we had the Carney liberal government approval rating, now just at 47%. And then we also have the
00:03:59.840 disapproval rating having risen a lot to now being at 34%. So that is an 11% rise on the negative.
00:04:13.180 And then that is a fall on the positive side of 6%. And then when you add those two up, what we have
00:04:23.400 now is a margin that has reduced from being a plus 30% approval rating down to just a plus 13%.
00:04:33.420 And now remember, this poll was literally conducted before Mark Carney had to apologize to Donald Trump
00:04:41.280 or the Ronald Reagan ads. That also matters a lot. I know people say, well, what does it matter as
00:04:47.800 Doug Ford's ads? The problem is, is that now Mark Carney is less elbows up to his own base
00:04:53.100 than the progressive conservative premier Doug Ford, who's not conservative in any way. Doug Ford's a big
00:04:58.640 liberal. But Carney ran on being the tough elbows up guy. And even before the apology, this whole poll was
00:05:06.740 conducted before the apology story. He's gone from plus 30 on the government approval side down to
00:05:13.020 plus 13. It is literally more than fallen in half. That is absolutely ridiculous. But now I just want
00:05:20.640 to jump over to the national polls and show where the conservatives currently are relative to the
00:05:25.540 liberals and what we'll probably end up seeing by next spring when it is rumored that there may be a 0.85
00:05:31.480 new election. Now we're back. And this is currently what the top line numbers look like. According to
00:05:40.640 abacus data, we currently have the federal conservative sitting at 42% of the vote, liberals at 40. We have
00:05:47.940 the NDP at eight. We have the bloc-capacoa at six. And we have the greens, which I didn't fill that in
00:05:54.160 right, sitting at three percent. And now this, in fact, although abacus tends to have a more rigid
00:06:01.140 voter sample, they don't tend to have their polls go way up or way down for any of the parties week to
00:06:07.320 week. So I find you can pretty much trust that they are measuring real public opinion changes,
00:06:12.360 because whenever you see a poll where one week the liberals are up five, and then the next the
00:06:16.740 conservatives are up three, and then the next the liberals are at plus two, and then the next week
00:06:21.180 they're tied, and then the conservatives are up 10. Whenever you see numbers like that, that's just
00:06:25.460 not how most people change their opinions. But what we've seen over time is a gradual reduction in
00:06:31.780 liberal support. Sometimes they drop down to 39, and then they go back up to 40. But back just a few
00:06:37.560 months ago in June, they would have been at 43 or 44, and the conservatives would have been down at like
00:06:43.060 39% below them by about four points. A plus two result for the conservatives naturally means that they
00:06:50.780 would win the most seats, and they would actually be pretty close to a majority government. This
00:06:55.820 would put them around 167 seats or so, and the liberals down around like 142 seats or something
00:07:03.020 like that. And the thing is that this is actually very statistically significant, because this is the
00:07:10.000 highest conservative polling from abacus data since the last election. The last election, the conservatives
00:07:16.080 got around 41.3% of the vote, they have 42 here, and since the election abacus, the highest they've
00:07:24.220 ever had them was 41. Now, it could go back down to 41 next week, but still the whole point is that
00:07:30.420 we've seen the trend that the conservatives have been able to maintain and even grow a little bit
00:07:35.600 since the last election, whereas the liberals have fallen a couple of points, going from 43% in the last
00:07:42.500 election, dropping three points since then, at the same time that a party like the NDP has actually
00:07:50.280 gone up by 2%, and going through the leadership, they actually may even be able to grab up more.
00:07:57.600 And another thing in this poll is that, like the major regions that you sort of look at, in Ontario,
00:08:05.700 we have an actual statistical tie, which is great, considering in the federal election, the liberals
00:08:13.040 had won by like six or seven points, and now we are seeing a statistical tie. And if you watch the
00:08:19.460 results for the federal election in Ontario, there was a lot of close seats. So if we go to a tie,
00:08:24.180 they're all going to be falling over towards conservatives. And then in somewhere like BC,
00:08:28.860 another big battleground province for conservatives and liberals, we actually have in this poll,
00:08:36.360 looking at the specific regionals, we have the conservatives winning that by 1%, which is not
00:08:44.240 too shabby considering the liberals had won it in the federal election. And then we jump over to
00:08:50.280 Atlantic Canada. This is an area where the liberals would have won around 50% of the vote. We have ATL
00:08:57.700 here. And now this poll, even though again, the liberals would have won the Atlantic Canadian
00:09:03.920 provinces by around 10 points, this poll only shows them winning it by 5%. Now naturally, this would
00:09:13.180 also mean overall that in provinces like Alberta, the conservatives would be picking up an extra seat
00:09:19.480 probably in Calgary, in Quebec, the conservatives would be able to maybe grab up another seat.
00:09:24.620 Overall, though, the thing that you would just say is, the conservatives have basically maintained,
00:09:30.740 strengthened a little bit, and the liberals, because they promised so much and delivered so little,
00:09:36.000 are starting to soften. Now, elbows up was a pretty powerful force in Canadian politics.
00:09:41.840 And I really want to see next week, or in the next couple of weeks, how the polls are going to respond
00:09:47.140 from the objective weakness by Carney. You don't have to be conservative or liberal to say that,
00:09:52.820 yes, that looked weak. Not that he should be, you know, badgering Trump and telling him what for,
00:09:58.220 but objectively, he put himself in a position to apologize for something that he shouldn't have
00:10:03.000 had to apologize for, because he either should have stopped Ford from doing the advertising,
00:10:08.040 or condemned him rather than sticking by Ford for about a week until he actually then called him out.
00:10:13.820 Anyways, that should be it for this polling update, guys. Thank you for watching.
00:10:17.640 Like, share, subscribe, do all that great stuff, and I'll see you guys all next time.