Liberal approval down 17% after series of Carney FAILS!
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Summary
Wyatt Claypool explains why the Liberal government's approval rating has dropped significantly since the apology to Ronald Reagan and the Doug Ford ad in the wake of it, and why it's not going to get any better than this.
Transcript
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Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here with another video on the whiteboard.
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I want to make this one a bit shorter, so I just want to show you guys two key statistics
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that really demonstrate the precarious position that Prime Minister Mark Carney and his liberal
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government are in. Because the problem for this liberal government compared to previous
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Trudeau liberal governments is that this one was elected on really, really big promises.
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If you think back to 2015, Trudeau actually set him up with the perfect promises to make
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getting into office. He's going to run deficits and he's going to invest more in the economy.
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One is literally saying, I'm going to be fiscally irresponsible, but don't worry,
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I'm investing in the economy. It's actually hard to kind of break those promises because they're so
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vague and dumb that most people won't really know when the promise has been broken. Yeah,
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we all kind of know the promise was broken from the start because he's claiming that this is going
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to bring prosperity. And if you know Economics 101, it's just not. But Carney, on the other hand,
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came in saying he was going to get a trade deal signed, that he was going to spend less and invest
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more and we have a massive deficit. And of many other areas of policy where they're promising
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prosperity and then they are basically delivering complete nothingness. And then also basically
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reintroducing a bunch of old Trudeau liberal policies around hate speech and censorship and whatnot
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that should have a lot of Canadians realizing that this is not a new, more business-focused
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liberal government like Carney had been marketing as. What I want to show you guys on this chart is
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just the government approval ratings in the abacus poll over time. I want to take you guys back
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to June of this year because back in June, this government, shortly after being elected,
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was riding pretty high when it came to people's perception of them. Back in June, the approval
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rating of the Carney liberal government was literally 53%. That is fantastic when it comes to Canadian
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politics in a multi-party system where inevitably parties win with only 43% of the vote like the liberals
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did. And they are not only getting all their people to say that they approve of them, they are getting
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10% more Canadians who also say that they approve of them. And back in June, the amount of people who
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disapproved of the liberal government was only at the time 23%. Now, that was a while ago, and I can tell
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you things have changed quite a bit. Now, when I say things change, people sometimes think, oh, these two
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numbers have to reverse or it isn't significant. No, if you have had a massive reduction in your
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margin over a period of just a few months, that is statistically significant because generally the
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public's opinion of you is going to take a long time to change unless you've done stupid things that
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are going to cause them to change their opinion quite quickly. And the Carney liberals, by not getting
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an actual trade deal signed, made this move quite a bit. So this, as you can do, anyone who can do math
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can tell, this was a plus 30% approval for the government. And the government is usually easier
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to hate than the prime minister themselves because, hey, it's harder to hate a person. But when it comes
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to the government, people will be more honest saying that they like them or don't like them. People
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back in June, really like these guys. But flash forward to Mark Carney not getting a trade deal
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signed and looking like a complete fool in the aftermath of this Ronald Reagan, Doug Ford ad thing.
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And we've had these two numbers tighten up significantly. So now in October, the last poll in October,
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we had the Carney liberal government approval rating, now just at 47%. And then we also have the
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disapproval rating having risen a lot to now being at 34%. So that is an 11% rise on the negative.
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And then that is a fall on the positive side of 6%. And then when you add those two up, what we have
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now is a margin that has reduced from being a plus 30% approval rating down to just a plus 13%.
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And now remember, this poll was literally conducted before Mark Carney had to apologize to Donald Trump
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or the Ronald Reagan ads. That also matters a lot. I know people say, well, what does it matter as
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Doug Ford's ads? The problem is, is that now Mark Carney is less elbows up to his own base
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than the progressive conservative premier Doug Ford, who's not conservative in any way. Doug Ford's a big
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liberal. But Carney ran on being the tough elbows up guy. And even before the apology, this whole poll was
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conducted before the apology story. He's gone from plus 30 on the government approval side down to
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plus 13. It is literally more than fallen in half. That is absolutely ridiculous. But now I just want
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to jump over to the national polls and show where the conservatives currently are relative to the
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liberals and what we'll probably end up seeing by next spring when it is rumored that there may be a
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new election. Now we're back. And this is currently what the top line numbers look like. According to
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abacus data, we currently have the federal conservative sitting at 42% of the vote, liberals at 40. We have
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the NDP at eight. We have the bloc-capacoa at six. And we have the greens, which I didn't fill that in
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right, sitting at three percent. And now this, in fact, although abacus tends to have a more rigid
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voter sample, they don't tend to have their polls go way up or way down for any of the parties week to
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week. So I find you can pretty much trust that they are measuring real public opinion changes,
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because whenever you see a poll where one week the liberals are up five, and then the next the
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conservatives are up three, and then the next the liberals are at plus two, and then the next week
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they're tied, and then the conservatives are up 10. Whenever you see numbers like that, that's just
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not how most people change their opinions. But what we've seen over time is a gradual reduction in
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liberal support. Sometimes they drop down to 39, and then they go back up to 40. But back just a few
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months ago in June, they would have been at 43 or 44, and the conservatives would have been down at like
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39% below them by about four points. A plus two result for the conservatives naturally means that they
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would win the most seats, and they would actually be pretty close to a majority government. This
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would put them around 167 seats or so, and the liberals down around like 142 seats or something
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like that. And the thing is that this is actually very statistically significant, because this is the
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highest conservative polling from abacus data since the last election. The last election, the conservatives
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got around 41.3% of the vote, they have 42 here, and since the election abacus, the highest they've
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ever had them was 41. Now, it could go back down to 41 next week, but still the whole point is that
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we've seen the trend that the conservatives have been able to maintain and even grow a little bit
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since the last election, whereas the liberals have fallen a couple of points, going from 43% in the last
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election, dropping three points since then, at the same time that a party like the NDP has actually
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gone up by 2%, and going through the leadership, they actually may even be able to grab up more.
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And another thing in this poll is that, like the major regions that you sort of look at, in Ontario,
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we have an actual statistical tie, which is great, considering in the federal election, the liberals
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had won by like six or seven points, and now we are seeing a statistical tie. And if you watch the
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results for the federal election in Ontario, there was a lot of close seats. So if we go to a tie,
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they're all going to be falling over towards conservatives. And then in somewhere like BC,
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another big battleground province for conservatives and liberals, we actually have in this poll,
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looking at the specific regionals, we have the conservatives winning that by 1%, which is not
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too shabby considering the liberals had won it in the federal election. And then we jump over to
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Atlantic Canada. This is an area where the liberals would have won around 50% of the vote. We have ATL
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here. And now this poll, even though again, the liberals would have won the Atlantic Canadian
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provinces by around 10 points, this poll only shows them winning it by 5%. Now naturally, this would
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also mean overall that in provinces like Alberta, the conservatives would be picking up an extra seat
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probably in Calgary, in Quebec, the conservatives would be able to maybe grab up another seat.
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Overall, though, the thing that you would just say is, the conservatives have basically maintained,
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strengthened a little bit, and the liberals, because they promised so much and delivered so little,
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are starting to soften. Now, elbows up was a pretty powerful force in Canadian politics.
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And I really want to see next week, or in the next couple of weeks, how the polls are going to respond
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from the objective weakness by Carney. You don't have to be conservative or liberal to say that,
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yes, that looked weak. Not that he should be, you know, badgering Trump and telling him what for,
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but objectively, he put himself in a position to apologize for something that he shouldn't have
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had to apologize for, because he either should have stopped Ford from doing the advertising,
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or condemned him rather than sticking by Ford for about a week until he actually then called him out.
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Anyways, that should be it for this polling update, guys. Thank you for watching.
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Like, share, subscribe, do all that great stuff, and I'll see you guys all next time.