The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - November 18, 2025


Liberal budget barely pass - Setup to Spring 2026 election!


Episode Stats


Length

16 minutes

Words per minute

171.88634

Word count

2,843

Sentence count

153

Harmful content

Misogyny

4

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Wyatt Claypool breaks down how the Liberal government barely passed the 2019-2020 budget, and why the opposition parties were complicit with the Liberals in order to set us up for a potential election in the spring or summer of 2020.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Let's just get right into the news. Prime Minister Mark Carney's liberal government budget barely passed.
00:00:10.280 170 votes in favor to 168 votes against. I'm going to show you the tape of it passing in just a second here, but this is as close as you could get.
00:00:22.220 But technically one other person could have voted against it, but still, there was only one other party that supported this budget, and that was the Greens.
00:00:32.860 It was just the one Green MP, Elizabeth May, who voted in favor of the budget with the Liberals, and even that wasn't a majority of MPs.
00:00:41.840 There was just three other opposition MPs who decided not to vote, and so the Liberals were able to pass this budget with the skin of their teeth.
00:00:50.480 I believe this is going to be the setup for a 2026 spring or summer election.
00:00:58.120 Very clearly, the NDP did not want to pass this thing, the Bloc did not want to pass this thing, and the Conservatives did not want to pass this thing.
00:01:05.220 And I think very shortly into the next year, they will be back for their pound of flesh.
00:01:10.500 But now, let's just go to the tape, and we will talk a little bit about it afterwards.
00:01:20.480 They do display the number wrong on screen.
00:01:37.420 They show 177 to 168, but it was 170 to 168.
00:01:41.500 I'm actually amazed by how often these things are screwed up during parliamentary streams where they end up entering the wrong numbers in.
00:01:50.640 It was 170 to 168.
00:01:53.420 The three, I believe it was three MPs who abstained, it may have been four, but they were NDP and one Conservative, that Conservative being Matt Genereau.
00:02:03.220 You will know that that is the one Conservative MP who is going to be resigning sometime in the spring if there isn't already a federal election happening at the same time.
00:02:13.500 And so I think that maybe for personal reasons, maybe for strategic reasons, he was not present for the vote.
00:02:19.720 But the entirety of the NDP caucus, if they did vote, voted against it.
00:02:26.400 The only people who didn't vote against it just didn't vote at all.
00:02:30.080 And so the budget ended up sailing through, not because people were endorsing it, but just because the other parties didn't really want to stop it that badly.
00:02:39.260 The NDP definitely didn't like the budget, but the problem is they are a combination of broke, and they do not have a permanent leader.
00:02:46.220 Their current leader is interim leader Don Davies, and so they didn't exactly want to face an election without actually having a permanent leader installed heading up the party.
00:02:58.120 And now, again, Matt Genereau probably skipped it for personal reasons or maybe for strategic reasons, but regardless, this is setting us up for a federal election because, again, the other parties are not happy at all.
00:03:10.300 They didn't like the fact that they had to let this budget be passed just simply because it's so early going.
00:03:15.200 Because the conventional wisdom is that you don't call an election this early or you're going to look really, really bad.
00:03:21.440 I want to jump over now to some of the press conferences that have started to go on with the other parties.
00:03:27.000 The CBC has a live stream here where they're talking, the different party leaders are coming out and giving their reaction.
00:03:32.900 So let's start off with, in fact, what is the most important party in this scenario, the NDP.
00:03:39.060 Standing behind him, about to explain why the NDP just did what they did.
00:03:43.740 Let's listen in.
00:03:44.340 In the lead-up to budget 2025, New Democrats made it very clear that it needs to address head-on the crises facing Canadian families and invest in the programs that Canadians rely on.
00:04:00.320 We have record unemployment, particularly among young people.
00:04:04.320 We have a housing shortage and a cost-of-living crisis in communities across the country.
00:04:10.080 Our cherished public health care system needs to be expanded, not cut.
00:04:16.220 We need better child care.
00:04:18.700 Since the budget was presented almost two weeks ago, we have taken the time to listen to our constituents and to meet with stakeholders.
00:04:25.880 It is clear from those conversations that this is a budget that does not address the real needs facing Canadians.
00:04:35.340 It fails to meet the moment, deliver transformational change, or address the urgent needs facing Canadians.
00:04:43.600 While there are elements of the budget which reflect our concerns on the whole, this is a conservative budget.
00:04:52.200 From reducing health care funding to provinces.
00:04:54.900 This is all kind of silly overall, because the budget is actually massive.
00:05:00.480 It's running a $78 billion deficit, which is the biggest raw dollar deficit that's ever been run in Canadian history.
00:05:08.840 But because there may be some slight spending reductions in some areas the NDP cares about, they can't support this thing.
00:05:16.100 Now, this is just classic political brinksmanship.
00:05:18.320 Really, the reality is that the NDP simply needs to oppose the Liberals.
00:05:24.480 That sounds like a very shallow statement, but it's true. 0.52
00:05:28.660 Jagmeet Singh was so just complicitory with the Liberals.
00:05:33.740 He went along with every single vote with them.
00:05:36.020 There was no point in the NDP existing with Jagmeet Singh around.
00:05:38.800 That the NDP actually needs to artificially complain about everything now in order for them to show their left-wing progressive base that they are somehow better than the Liberals.
00:05:49.100 Really, I could see the NDP pretty much passing the same budget with maybe a slightly different balance between infrastructure spending and operating budget expenses.
00:05:57.920 They would be blowing out the deficit too.
00:06:00.080 The mix of spending would just be slightly different.
00:06:02.520 But this is enough for the NDP these days to oppose it simply because they only have seven seats and they need to find an excuse to call an election next year in order for them to at least double it so they can get their official party status back.
00:06:17.080 Which is hilarious that he's saying like, oh my goodness, we're moving backwards on climate stuff.
00:06:41.140 No, Elizabeth May just confirmed today that the Liberals were going to stick to the Paris Climate Accord and all of their other green initiatives. 0.71
00:06:51.060 None of it's going away.
00:06:52.440 Him saying, oh my goodness, they're cutting more than Stephen Harper ever did.
00:06:56.260 Well, not really.
00:06:57.100 They're going to reduce certain operating budgets by 15%, but that doesn't phase in for years.
00:07:01.600 And so really, they're probably just not going to actually do it.
00:07:05.200 And there's a difference in Harper cutting, and I agree with Harper cutting waste. 0.99
00:07:10.100 But Harper was cutting waste back when there wasn't nearly as much waste to cut.
00:07:14.040 It was still good for him to cut it.
00:07:15.680 Carney is proposing that he might in the future at some point cut some waste, 15%, at a time when there is more waste than ever to cut.
00:07:25.180 The fact that he can only reduce operating budgets by 15%, he's still probably not even going to do it, is ridiculous.
00:07:30.540 He could cut way more because the government's size has gone up by more than 50% since Justin Trudeau was in office or since he came to office in 2015.
00:07:40.420 It particularly fails Indigenous people.
00:07:46.220 But through these discussions, it became equally clear that Canadians do not want an election right now.
00:07:53.220 The consequences of defeating this budget would not be to improve it or to help Canadians.
00:07:59.300 Honestly, I don't even need to go on here.
00:08:02.460 What a pathetic answer from Don Davies.
00:08:04.500 Don't even talk about the election.
00:08:06.260 Don't make it sound like you're cowards.
00:08:08.160 Say that we voted against it, but two of our people abstained because we need to first finish our NDP leadership race,
00:08:14.460 and then we will be back to basically exact justice on this liberal government.
00:08:21.340 That's what I would have said.
00:08:22.340 But Don Davies not being a smart political operator, smarter than Jagmeet Singh still.
00:08:27.640 He's coming out and attacking it and then saying, also, Canadians don't want an election right now.
00:08:32.940 It's like, don't say that.
00:08:33.900 You look really weak saying stuff like that.
00:08:36.100 But I want to go away from that and go over to what Elizabeth May said today just to kind of fact check Don Davies on the idea
00:08:42.360 that somehow the liberals have become less green, less of an environmentalist party.
00:08:48.760 Can he confirm here on the floor of this House that in passing this budget,
00:08:55.140 the government is committed to holding to as far below two degrees as possible,
00:09:00.320 to funding climate adaptation, to delivering on the nature strategy,
00:09:05.560 and continuing to engage in meaningful indigenous reconciliation?
00:09:11.940 Can he confirm to this House that we will respect our parents' commitments for climate change,
00:09:17.560 and we're determined to achieve them?
00:09:19.220 I can confirm with this House that consistent with our Kunming Montreal commitments,
00:09:23.940 the nature strategy will release in the coming weeks.
00:09:27.000 We will build this country strong, sustainable, and pure for future generations.
00:09:32.920 It's always stunning to me just how kind of mediocre of a speaker Mark Carney is.
00:09:37.040 There's a reason why he so often skips QP, because he's not a very confident speaker.
00:09:41.980 But the optics of this are actually quite bad, because it's not a liberal NDP budget.
00:09:48.020 I don't think that really bothers Canadians that much if the liberals and the NDP teamed up to pass a budget.
00:09:53.400 They got used to that going on since 2019 between Singh and Trudeau.
00:09:57.740 In this budget, though, it's a carny Elizabeth May budget.
00:10:02.640 You could say, well, technically Elizabeth May could have not voted for it,
00:10:06.100 and it would have still passed.
00:10:07.400 You know, it would have passed 169 to 168.
00:10:10.240 Okay, but the problem there is they courted her for this vote.
00:10:15.300 They confirmed certain things to her.
00:10:17.260 They negotiated with her to get her vote.
00:10:19.420 So it very much is a red-green type of a budget,
00:10:22.660 because they have now committed to stupid spending initiatives that Trudeau had
00:10:27.340 in order to make Elizabeth May happy. 0.84
00:10:29.780 They're keeping around a bunch of wasteful spending,
00:10:32.060 a bunch of really stupid environmental regulations and projects
00:10:36.900 in order to make Elizabeth May happy enough to get her one vote. 1.00
00:10:40.680 It's just not a very good look.
00:10:43.080 I want to check how things are going in the CBC stream.
00:10:46.420 I want to see if we have a new party talking,
00:10:48.500 because I really don't need to hear from Don Davies again.
00:10:51.200 Well, we can go over now to Philippe Champagne,
00:10:56.840 talking to people outside of when talking to people
00:11:01.600 or talking to the media after the budget here.
00:11:04.340 I also have to bring it up on screen, guys.
00:11:06.060 Sorry, we're doing this very garage band here in my hotel room.
00:11:10.160 Here we go.
00:11:11.840 Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne spoke to reporters just a few minutes ago.
00:11:16.020 Let's listen to what the finance minister has to say
00:11:18.120 on his first budget clearing a big hurdle right now.
00:11:21.200 What matters today is that, you know, people decided to,
00:11:38.240 parliamentarians, though they're born in a favour,
00:11:40.080 they decided to put Canada first.
00:11:42.480 And that's really what matters today.
00:11:44.320 You know, people in their constituency and people are looking.
00:11:48.720 There's enough uncertainty in the world.
00:11:50.200 We need to come together to support Canadians.
00:11:52.900 And that's why those who voted in favour,
00:11:55.980 I think, have shown that they are really committed to Canada.
00:12:00.240 And so, yes, we keep on working.
00:12:02.280 Every day is a good day to fight.
00:12:03.400 How are we negotiating on too with other parties?
00:12:05.640 Merci.
00:12:05.900 Yeah, we don't need to hear that in French again.
00:12:10.220 But the problem for the Liberals here is, again, the fact that they couldn't get another party on side,
00:12:15.880 despite having been signalling since they were elected that they're willing to work with other parties,
00:12:21.320 let's unify the country, makes them look like a very disunified government with the rest of the country.
00:12:26.940 And no doubt what they've done so far when it comes to the Air Canada strikes and when it comes to the proposed budget cuts,
00:12:35.320 the operating expense cuts, the staffing cuts,
00:12:37.640 they are going to be pushing a lot of their progressive left back over to the NDP.
00:12:43.020 Because remember, the NDP, in the election previous to 2025, got around 18% of the vote.
00:12:48.700 In 2025, they only got one-third of the vote they're used to.
00:12:51.600 They only got like 6.3%, 6.6% of the vote.
00:12:54.660 Same thing with the bloc.
00:12:56.060 Usually they get like 30% in Quebec, and I think they ended up getting like 25% or something like that.
00:13:00.860 They fell from around 8% nationally, which is obviously better for them because it's all concentrated in Quebec, 1.00
00:13:06.300 to around 6%.
00:13:07.320 Maybe there were 7.5% before, then they were 6%, but it lost them like about 10 seats or so.
00:13:12.140 So they're going to lose a bunch more seats, the Liberals, over back to the Bloc Québécois,
00:13:17.800 because they can say, see, they don't care about Quebec.
00:13:20.620 Carney wishes he could just bypass us by electing a bunch of Liberals who aren't going to stand up for Quebec interests.
00:13:25.760 Now, is the NDP and the Bloc's arguments good?
00:13:29.100 No, I disagree with their framing of the issue.
00:13:31.620 In fact, of course, being Conservative, I agree with the Conservatives' framing of the budget
00:13:35.840 that it's blowing a crazy amount of money into the economy, trying to stabilize things,
00:13:41.120 when in fact the problem is too much government.
00:13:43.860 You need to cut spending, you need to cut taxes, you need to cut regulations,
00:13:46.980 and the Liberals are effectively putting up more microwave Justin Trudeau-type policies over again,
00:13:54.600 assuming that we're going to get a different result.
00:13:57.980 And what I want, is there anything else interesting going on with the live stream with the CDC?
00:14:03.100 Nah, nothing in particular.
00:14:04.280 Rick Bell's talking, and I like Rick Bell, but I just don't need to go over there right now.
00:14:08.040 No doubt we're going to get a reaction to the budget from Pierre Polyev in the next hour or so.
00:14:14.960 I can probably cover that in a different video here.
00:14:17.920 But what this is probably going to be doing, again, for the 2026 spring election,
00:14:23.460 is that the Liberals are going to run on the idea that we have all these achievements,
00:14:27.100 we've announced all these projects, projects that were already underway,
00:14:30.280 or they were almost done, or their thing's not going to be done for five years.
00:14:33.240 And then they're going to say, well, we did all these trade deals, just vague, hollow agreements that they signed in Europe and Asia,
00:14:39.960 saying we should maybe trade more together.
00:14:42.400 They're going to try and run on all these achievements, run on the things that the budget is supposedly going to do.
00:14:47.680 But I think the problem for Carney, despite still having a net favorable approval rating,
00:14:53.620 his approval rating is higher than his disapproval rating, and the fact that his government even has a higher approval rating than disapproval rating,
00:15:00.420 I think he thinks he has a chance to win a majority in a spring or summer election.
00:15:05.000 But the problem is, I think that the emotions are on the side of those who want to get rid of him.
00:15:09.860 I don't think a lot of voters who voted Liberal in this last election are going to show up again,
00:15:14.960 because Trump is not going to be the top issue anymore, and Carney has objectively broken a lot of promises already.
00:15:21.280 And then you're going to have those who want a fiscal restraint, who voted Liberal, who typically vote Conservative,
00:15:26.540 go back to voting Conservative.
00:15:27.980 You're going to have the progressive left who typically voted NDP, but voted Liberal in this last election.
00:15:32.680 Many of them will go back to voting for the NDP.
00:15:35.380 And again, a lot of Bloc Québécois, Quebec sovereignty voters who voted for the Liberals,
00:15:40.040 because he's going to stand up to Trump and we believe this is a, you know, a party for Quebec,
00:15:44.120 might go back and start voting Bloc again.
00:15:47.000 The only, and so by passing this thing with just the support of Elizabeth May,
00:15:53.720 they both end up looking way too left-wing to more centre-right voters,
00:15:58.680 and they don't look progressive enough to the NDP and the Bloc because they couldn't lock down their support.
00:16:03.560 So I think the set is, or the stage is set for this next election,
00:16:08.100 and based on the polling right now, I think Carney thinks he can actually win it.
00:16:12.440 But I also think all the other parties also think they can either win if they're the Conservatives,
00:16:16.260 or they can make a lot of gains if they're the NDP or the Bloc Québécois.
00:16:20.420 And so next year, 2026, is going to be chaotic,
00:16:24.380 and we will be following the follow-up of this as we get more details.
00:16:28.640 Anyways, with all that being said, thank you guys for watching, and I'll see you all later.