The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 25, 2025


Liberal firm cranks out Fake Poll to stop Carney's support bleed!

Topics
ECOS Polling and Liberal Party popularity Ecos polling bias
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Trudeau Frank Graves Bill C-63 Harper Conservatives Mark Carney Nanos Ecos Gary Amasangari Pierre Poilievre Clark Carney Kosovo Ski Gender Marty Picos Bloc
Trump ENDS trade talks with Canada after DUMB move by Doug Ford! Liberals lose on another issue - Bill C-9 gets destroyed in Committee!

Episode Stats


Length

17 minutes

Words per minute

180.64

Word count

3,222

Sentence count

227

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Toxicity

17

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, I talk about the dismal polling numbers coming out of ECOS, and why you should be mad at the Liberals. I also talk about Bill C-9, and how the government is screwing up the public's right to free speech.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.120 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back again to talk about polling in Canadian politics.
00:00:07.140 And I want to start this episode off by asking you guys, what is the best indicator of a
00:00:13.660 political party becoming less popular?
00:00:16.880 Well, at least in the case of the Liberals, for me, the best indicator that they're not
00:00:22.740 doing very well is when ECOS Polling starts telling you that the Liberals are doing great.
00:00:27.940 Because ECOS is not in the polling business, they are in the PR business.
00:00:34.220 Frank Graves, who runs ECOS, hates Pierre Polyev's guts, and he was never a good pollster to
00:00:40.420 begin with, even back in the day when he was trying to be accurate.
00:00:44.080 Now, he's not trying to be accurate at all, he puts out narrative polls to try and forward
00:00:50.020 certain narratives about Canadian politics.
00:00:52.820 Now, I am a big proponent of polling.
00:00:55.920 I think it's a very useful tool to see what Canadians feel like about the current political
00:01:01.260 landscape and how they may vote in the next election.
00:01:04.540 That doesn't mean that every firm is made equal and they're all fantastic.
00:01:08.700 Some of them are very good.
00:01:10.120 Some of them tend to be a little bit more skewed in the leftward direction.
00:01:13.860 Some could even be skewed in the rightward direction.
00:01:16.460 But if you follow polling long enough, you can kind of unskew the polls a little bit.
00:01:21.000 You know that Nanos leans a little more liberal with their samples.
00:01:24.100 You know other ones will lean a little bit more right, and you can kind of mentally correct
00:01:28.660 more towards what a realistic result would look like.
00:01:32.720 ECOS is nowhere near realistic, and that's why we need to talk about this today, because 0.94
00:01:37.140 it's so pathetic. 0.97
00:01:39.040 The liberals and Mark Carney are clearly in a bit of a hole right now. 0.99
00:01:43.200 They should be riding high.
00:01:44.680 It's the first year of their new government.
00:01:46.900 So they should have a very easy time maintaining popularity.
00:01:51.000 People don't really expect results super, super fast this early into a government, as
00:01:57.580 long as you're not obviously screwing up.
00:02:00.640 But the problem is the liberals have been obviously screwing up, and they keep putting
00:02:04.360 their rhetorical foot in their mouth all of the time. 1.00
00:02:08.120 Just stupid scandals, not getting the trade deal signed, not having a budget on time, going 1.00
00:02:13.780 way over budget and having a massive deficit. 1.00
00:02:16.040 But Canadian voters, the average voter who is willing to change between the liberals and
00:02:21.780 conservatives, is deeply unimpressed right now.
00:02:25.040 But anyways, before we get into it, guys, I just want to remind you that if you like the
00:02:28.800 show, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber, and
00:02:33.420 if you are a subscriber, hit the notification bell so you are notified whenever a new video
00:02:37.500 comes out.
00:02:38.380 And of course, leave a comment on what you think about all this.
00:02:41.780 But let's start off with what the top-line ECOS numbers are, presented by Polling Canada,
00:02:48.440 who does a really good job on X of displaying these polls.
00:02:51.820 Now, he's not going to discriminate between a poll that is good quality and bad quality.
00:02:56.180 He just puts it all out, which is totally okay.
00:02:59.260 You know, hey, it's part of his business model as a guy who gets revenue on X.
00:03:02.920 This is the numbers you are supposed to believe from ECOS right now.
00:03:08.680 Liberal Party at 44%, Conservatives at 32%, NDP at 12%, Bloc at 6%, Green Party at 3%, and
00:03:15.800 the PPC at 2%.
00:03:17.700 No, this is just not true.
00:03:22.300 I don't know how to say it in any other way.
00:03:24.840 These are just bad numbers.
00:03:26.860 If you follow Canadian politics right now, does Carney even feel like he's on a rhetorical
00:03:32.180 upswing?
00:03:33.180 No.
00:03:33.940 He's been having to be extremely defensive.
00:03:37.260 He had to do that pre-budget press conference or a presentation where he's trying to reiterate
00:03:43.000 a lot of his old campaign rhetoric about how our relationship with the U.S. is over.
00:03:48.340 We need to protect our country and find different trade partners and gird up our industries and
00:03:54.140 whatnot.
00:03:54.540 I'm like, well, it's six months in, dude.
00:03:56.260 How haven't you done any of this? 0.96
00:03:57.960 You know, Gary Amasangri is having to run away from his dumb comments on the gun vibe. 0.87
00:04:02.180 Actually, smart comments that he's running away from because it undermined the liberal 0.99
00:04:06.280 narrative, him admitting it was a dumb policy.
00:04:08.780 It looks like they're going to get rid of the gun buyback. 0.77
00:04:10.940 They already had to scrap Bill C-2, which was just this horrible border security bill
00:04:15.380 that just injected a bunch of privacy violations in it for no reason.
00:04:19.420 They've now turned into Bill C-12, but even that one's under fire.
00:04:23.300 Around every corner, this government is screwing up.
00:04:25.780 They have Bill C-8, Bill C-9.
00:04:27.160 Again, more censorship, more hate speech laws that are not playing well in the public at
00:04:31.620 all.
00:04:32.420 So even from just a layman's perspective, not even looking at the numbers, does Carney feel
00:04:37.880 stronger or weaker since the election?
00:04:41.660 Obviously, he's weaker.
00:04:43.880 But ECOS wants you to think, no, no, no.
00:04:46.160 He's actually doing even better.
00:04:48.300 Remember, the liberals barely won the last election.
00:04:51.260 And they ended up winning the popular vote by 2.3%.
00:04:56.320 But because their vote is so concentrated in a place like Montreal and Toronto, even with
00:05:00.820 a 2.3% lead, they only actually beat the conservatives in the closest ridings to prevent
00:05:05.440 the conservatives from winning a minority government by a little more than 8,000 votes.
00:05:10.080 Here is the current polling trends that polling can also put together.
00:05:14.520 Back on election day, it was like 41% conservative.
00:05:19.520 It was like 41% conservative, 43.2% for the liberals.
00:05:24.980 Those aren't exact numbers, but that's the general margin.
00:05:27.840 Conservatives are above 41.
00:05:29.380 Liberals are a little bit above 43.
00:05:32.060 And then you do have the gap widened.
00:05:34.620 And it's because, hey, it's a new government.
00:05:36.060 Let's give them a chance.
00:05:37.040 They won, you know, to the victor goes the spoils.
00:05:39.740 And people start voting liberal more often in the polls.
00:05:42.080 Plus, conservative voters might be a little depressed.
00:05:44.520 After not winning, they're less likely to take a poll.
00:05:47.860 And now you jump six months ahead and all the polls averaged out have the liberals and
00:05:53.220 conservatives within basically a point of each other, an average of 40.9 to 38.4.
00:06:01.400 And by the way, guys, 40.9 to 38.4 would have the conservatives win the entire election.
00:06:07.980 Maybe not a majority, obviously, but they would win a minority.
00:06:10.620 Because, again, their vote is far more efficient these days than the liberals.
00:06:14.520 They can win Rosedale, University of Rosedale in Toronto, with 70% of the vote.
00:06:19.700 It doesn't make a difference in terms of how many seats that party is actually going to win.
00:06:25.120 You don't get a bonus seat for winning one rural or one super urban riding by, like, a massive margin if you're the conservatives or the liberals.
00:06:32.780 But now we've got to go into the actual poll that Ecos put out and all the detail to show you what a bad poll looks like and also the propaganda effect that the liberals are clearly wanting from this.
00:06:46.560 Now, I'm not saying this is paid for by the liberals, although it kind of is when you look at all the contracts that Ecos gets from the liberal government.
00:06:53.220 And I'm not saying that they were in contact with Frank Graves saying, can you do a poll on this?
00:06:58.260 But isn't it kind of suspicious at a time when the liberals are panicking about potentially having to face an election either in the next couple months, which is unlikely, but more likely in the next six to eight months next spring, that they want polling out there that says Canadians don't want this right now.
00:07:14.720 Oh, don't guys, don't go for the election.
00:07:16.460 Most Canadians don't want it.
00:07:17.700 So you look at this, the headline of the poll is a little appetite for fall election.
00:07:23.620 And look at this, support for fall election.
00:07:25.720 Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement.
00:07:30.200 Federal opposition parties should vote against the upcoming federal budget this fall, triggering a fall election.
00:07:35.400 Now, of course, you have 69% of conservatives who think that they should, 29% of block voters, 10% of Green Party voters, 9% of NDP.
00:07:43.000 So it's showing, although overall, 54% nationally do not want an election right now.
00:07:48.820 And I don't doubt that it's still pretty early.
00:07:51.600 And then another one right here says, please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement.
00:07:56.120 I would be less likely to vote for a party that brings down the government.
00:07:59.840 And it says 52% of people overall agree that they're less likely to vote for a party that brings down this government.
00:08:06.520 Now, it doesn't matter.
00:08:09.000 It really doesn't matter.
00:08:10.480 However, it's such just kind of a limp question, like, oh, well, people don't really want an early election.
00:08:17.460 That doesn't mean that Carney would perform well in an early election, though, because his base is going to feel like, really, we're having to fight for this guy again after he basically didn't deliver anything he actually promised.
00:08:29.140 And again, the conservatives are not going to be forcing election likely over this budget.
00:08:33.760 NDP are still in a leadership race.
00:08:35.720 They're going to fight that thing out before they actually decide whether or not to go into a new election, which will mean that there's not going to be an election opportunity until after February or March of next year.
00:08:48.240 But within the summer or spring of that of the year 2026, you could have an election.
00:08:53.640 And here's the thing.
00:08:54.700 Look at this trend line from ECOS.
00:08:58.460 Now, people say, well, ECOS was showing big margins for the conservatives back in December 2024.
00:09:04.120 They can't be that biased.
00:09:05.800 Well, of course, the liberal establishment wanted Trudeau out.
00:09:08.260 So even ECOS was eventually going to start showing that the liberals are doing terrible.
00:09:12.680 Before December of 2024, where this chart starts, ECOS was the one showing that Trudeau was only, you know, was still only behind by seven or eight points, which he wasn't.
00:09:22.420 He was clearly behind by double digits at the very least, probably mid-teens, if not 20%.
00:09:27.380 And then as soon as the liberal establishment needs Trudeau out, suddenly ECOS says, oh, actually, Trudeau's behind by 25 points.
00:09:33.860 They actually had an overcorrection, and they said that the liberals were literally below 18% or below 20%.
00:09:40.600 You can see it on the chart. 0.90
00:09:42.100 It was ridiculous.
00:09:43.220 I don't think the liberals were ever below 20%, but ECOS is a propaganda pollster.
00:09:47.380 So their polls, that little crossover point right there, you can see in the middle, that's the actual election result.
00:09:54.040 Now, I think the conservative line overlays the liberal line a bit, so it makes it look like they're higher.
00:09:58.500 But the liberals did better than the conservatives in the election, obviously.
00:10:02.500 But right after the election, you just see these two lines where it just shows the liberals above 40% and the conservatives in the mid to low 30s the entire time since the election.
00:10:12.320 It's almost like ECOS exists just to basically say, nope, liberals are still popular.
00:10:17.080 They're still ahead.
00:10:17.880 If you're a liberal voter, keep voting for them.
00:10:19.800 And now look at the actual regionals in this poll.
00:10:23.220 61% for the liberals in Atlantic Canada and only 19% for the conservatives.
00:10:27.600 The conservatives scored like 35%, 36%, 37% in Atlantic Canada.
00:10:34.040 And you're telling me that they've basically only, they've collapsed only having half of what they had.
00:10:38.800 The conservatives, the PCs, even though they are more very red Tory-ish PCs, the PC party just won the Newfoundland provincial election.
00:10:47.340 And Atlantic Canada was the place in the federal election with the biggest polling misses.
00:10:51.700 Pretty much every pollster showed the liberals at like 57%, 55%.
00:10:56.540 And they did well.
00:10:57.620 They got like 48% or maybe 50%.
00:10:59.480 But so many pollsters were showing them in like the 60s or the high 50s.
00:11:03.920 And it didn't actually happen.
00:11:05.800 And the conservatives were going to win zero seats in Atlantic Canada.
00:11:09.160 And yes, the conservatives lost seats in Nova Scotia.
00:11:11.920 But they gained seats in Newfoundland and then New Brunswick as a draw.
00:11:15.720 And the PEI was all liberal again like it usually is.
00:11:18.860 The thing is, as soon as you see regionals that don't make any sense like this, the pollster is probably bad.
00:11:25.320 Do you really think that Mark Carney and the liberals are leading 16 points in Ontario?
00:11:31.540 They're leading 10 points in British Columbia?
00:11:35.020 Now, I can believe the liberals are leading in Ontario.
00:11:38.820 British Columbia, when the polls are close like in the other pollsters, even when the liberals are leading by two or three points,
00:11:44.700 conservatives are usually leading in British Columbia.
00:11:46.660 There's a lot of rural small-town ridings in British Columbia and even some winnable Vancouver ridings for the conservatives federally.
00:11:55.560 But then you come down to age and gender.
00:11:59.100 Gender is the one that should indicate to you guys this is effectively a cooked poll.
00:12:03.540 Is Frank faking the numbers?
00:12:05.760 Probably not.
00:12:06.740 He just doesn't care that the response rates of his polls look like the demographics of Reddit.
00:12:12.880 He doesn't really care that he's polling people who work too many, who are mostly public sector workers and whatnot.
00:12:21.940 Women really are 49% liberal to 27% conservative. 1.00
00:12:26.040 Now, women are more liberal than men. 0.99
00:12:29.660 And same with men are usually more conservative than women. 0.89
00:12:31.940 But really, it is a 22% lead for the liberals on women.
00:12:38.560 That's not how any of this works.
00:12:41.280 And you guys don't need to see any more of this.
00:12:42.840 This is propaganda.
00:12:44.440 And the propaganda is, in fact, exposing the fact the liberals are not doing very well right now.
00:12:49.880 Look at this one right here.
00:12:51.420 Working class is apparently tied.
00:12:53.820 Working class voters.
00:12:54.820 Yes, plumbers, electricians, tradespeople.
00:12:57.940 Yes, the liberals are tied with the conservatives on the working class.
00:13:02.020 Get out of here. 1.00
00:13:03.020 It's so stupid. 1.00
00:13:04.440 It's no, it's a bad poll. 1.00
00:13:06.260 But the fact that the propaganda is so obvious should tell you that the liberals are in a currently bad spot.
00:13:12.980 Ecos hasn't even really been doing that much polling.
00:13:15.680 And suddenly, when things start going really bad for the liberals, then they crank back up the polls.
00:13:21.060 Now they're suddenly talking about what's going on again.
00:13:24.740 It's very obvious what is going on here.
00:13:27.440 And to make the point even clearer, you want to see something kind of funny?
00:13:31.680 As Marty up north points out, the Ecos gets a lot of money from the federal government to do polling.
00:13:39.360 Ecos Research and Associates in this one contract given to them on November 21st, 2024,
00:13:44.620 was a contract for $99,976.
00:13:49.700 And I'm not saying that Ecos would be basically scuffing polls for that little money.
00:13:56.240 They've been getting a lot more than this over the past decade.
00:13:58.720 Here's another post by somebody who pointed out,
00:14:02.420 Ecos Research Polling received five times the amount of money from Trudeau liberals in two years
00:14:08.160 than Harper Conservatives in four years.
00:14:10.480 Let that sink in before you trust another poll from Ecos again.
00:14:13.800 And they're showing 2008 to 2011 or so, these years where they had contracts.
00:14:20.100 And then they're showing the kind of the late stage Trudeau years, 2023 to 2025.
00:14:26.220 Harper, under Harper, they had gotten contracts for $270,000, a collective $270,000.
00:14:33.500 Under Trudeau, they had $1.4 million given to them in a very short period of time, very close to the election year.
00:14:42.220 Yeah, I think it's going to affect things a little bit when Ecos relies mostly on government funds.
00:14:48.760 Abacus Data, Nanos, Main Street, a lot of these other ones mostly rely on private pollsters, on private money.
00:14:57.160 They do polling for corporations, you know, market research, if a singular party hires them to do internal polling.
00:15:04.960 That's what they do.
00:15:06.720 Ecos is a government pollster, so you wonder why they have a government bias when it comes to the numbers.
00:15:12.600 Even when Nanos, Nanos tends to lean liberal between elections with its sample.
00:15:18.080 They're actually quite accurate during election time.
00:15:22.200 The problem is they go to a cheaper form of polling between elections that tends to get more liberal sampling.
00:15:27.160 But even their sampling right now is showing the liberals are, like, leading by 1%, which would mean the conservatives would win the election.
00:15:34.520 Well, it's so obvious what Frank Graves is doing here.
00:15:38.660 And I don't even, we can bring it up again, but, like, there's famous posts.
00:15:42.740 Do I have it here?
00:15:43.680 Maybe I don't have it here right at my fingertips.
00:15:46.680 But, like, Frank Graves is famous for having put out tweets about the fact that he doesn't want to see pure poly have become prime minister
00:15:53.580 and he will do everything in his power to prevent him. 0.76
00:15:56.140 And you think this guy's not willing to just put out a crap poll in order to make it look like Clark Carney's still riding high 0.94
00:16:03.660 to basically give some confidence to liberal donors to keep putting in money 0.94
00:16:08.480 or to try and prevent the NDP and the bloc and the conservatives from triggering an election
00:16:13.980 because, hey, look, my poll says you guys would be super unpopular if you did that.
00:16:17.340 At the end of the day, I don't really think, I don't think Canadians want an election within a year.
00:16:22.640 But if the government just completely fails on delivering everything and things get significantly worse,
00:16:28.160 this isn't like you only gave a new government a year and a half.
00:16:31.360 This is saying the government that's been around for already 10 years maybe doesn't deserve another four.
00:16:37.560 Let's re-roll the dice.
00:16:38.540 They said they were crisis managers.
00:16:39.780 They clearly aren't.
00:16:40.660 Let's do another election.
00:16:41.940 The last one was indecisive.
00:16:43.280 But, yeah.
00:16:45.320 Anyways, so that should be it for this video, guys.
00:16:48.540 Thank you for watching.
00:16:49.920 Hopefully you don't mind me doing videos where not only am I talking about polls,
00:16:54.460 but I'm, like, going after particularly bad pollsters.
00:16:57.720 I think it's always good information for you to know.
00:17:00.720 Picos, don't trust it.
00:17:02.120 You know, Abacus, Main Street, even, like, these pollsters can still sometimes be off.
00:17:06.820 Main Street was wildly off in Newfoundland and Labrador's provincial election.
00:17:10.040 I give them a pass on that because they tend to be much better elsewhere.
00:17:14.120 It's hard to pull Atlantic Canada.
00:17:16.040 I give it to people on that.
00:17:17.600 But Abacus, Innovative.
00:17:19.800 You have Kosovo Ski.
00:17:22.120 You have Main Street.
00:17:23.660 Even Nanos.
00:17:25.000 These ones are actually pretty good pollsters.
00:17:26.820 There's some other good ones out there.
00:17:28.760 Ecos, whenever they pop up.
00:17:30.800 Spark Insight, whenever they pop up.
00:17:33.140 Don't even take it with a grain of salt.
00:17:34.840 Just assume if they say the liberals are wildly ahead,
00:17:37.280 it probably means they're actually not wildly ahead.
00:17:39.960 It probably means the liberals are panicking,
00:17:41.860 and they needed a good poll out there to make them look not terrible.
00:17:45.680 Anyways, with that being said,
00:17:47.620 thank you guys for watching, and I'll see you guys next time.