The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Liberal strategists admits Carney has NO WINS in government!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome back to the National Telegraph YouTube channel.

00:00:05.700 Although Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals are currently flying pretty high in

00:00:11.020 the polls right now, one of the things that's coming down the tracks towards them is the fact

00:00:16.180 that they really haven't accomplished anything yet. And when I say the Liberals are leading in

00:00:21.140 the polls, we do have to discount the crazy polls showing them like plus 13, plus 15. No,

00:00:28.460 the Liberal Party is not ahead of the Conservatives by 15 points. Public opinion does not move like

00:00:34.200 that. The Liberals have an edge because Donald Trump has been in the news lately, so it has moved up

00:00:39.820 the issue of Trump and his administration in the polling, which means more people are rallying

00:00:46.060 around the current incumbent government. We have this new poll out from Abacus Data that shows the

00:00:51.980 Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by seven points. Here are the regionals, although even then I don't

00:00:58.300 think the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives by seven points. I think it would be fair to say

00:01:03.660 they're ahead by four points. Also, the Quebec sample tends to look a little bit wonky to me,

00:01:09.160 both Ontario and Quebec. I don't think the Liberals are ahead by nine in Ontario, and I do not think

00:01:15.000 they're ahead by 19 points over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec. Actually, it was pointed out by Cade right

00:01:22.320 here. I'll bring this back up on screen. The reason why I don't quite trust their Ontario samples,

00:01:27.880 and they had a big Ontario sample. I give it to David Coletto and Abacus Data. They polled a thousand

00:01:33.060 people in the province of Ontario, but Cade here, who is a polling analyst, much like Sheree Attiste and

00:01:40.060 the Great Canadian Bagel, he points out the Liberal Party of Canada is plus 30 in the City of Toronto,

00:01:45.980 but the Conservative Party of Canada is plus 12 in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area. So that feels

00:01:52.480 like they probably just had a crazy Liberal urbanite sample. Way too many elbows up Liberals

00:02:00.360 ended up getting into the sample, which threw the whole thing off, and maybe that was even an

00:02:05.420 overpull for the Conservatives in the GTA. But every once in a while, based on the news cycle, sometimes

00:02:11.380 you have it that Liberals are far more likely to pick up the phone or answer an online survey

00:02:16.660 than the Conservatives. That's what we call a response bias. There is a bias in who is willing

00:02:23.140 to respond to the survey. That doesn't mean that Liberals are passing each other the links to the

00:02:28.020 surveys and they're all taking it artificially. That's impossible based on the way these pollsters

00:02:32.400 do things. What would be happening is just more so because of the way Liberals feel at the time,

00:02:37.980 they become 80% likely to take the survey, whereas Conservatives are 60% likely to take the survey,

00:02:44.280 which throws the balance off a bit. But this is basically to say the Liberals are still ahead,

00:02:50.080 but it's because of the issue of Trump. Now I want to get to a video from CPAC, which is the state

00:02:57.440 broadcaster that does all of the parliamentary broadcasting. Whenever you see question period

00:03:02.660 clips that is being taken by CPAC, they also have these little panel shows where strategists talk

00:03:08.520 about politics. And I found it very odd that in this clip right here, we actually have the Liberal

00:03:15.980 on the panel admit that Carney doesn't have any actual wins right now. And like I said, that is the

00:03:23.000 fundamental problem for Carney. He is ahead in the polls right now because Trump is in the headlines,

00:03:27.960 but that is a temporary bump that Carney gets. Now, maybe if an election occurs, maybe the bump

00:03:34.900 happens at just the right moment that it carries him into a majority government. But if he doesn't

00:03:39.880 get the Trump bump, well, he's going to have to try and rely on his record. And there's pretty much

00:03:45.700 nothing actually there. But before I get into this clip, guys, I just want to remind you that if you

00:03:50.500 like the show, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe. If you are not yet a subscriber,

00:03:55.500 leave a comment about what you think about all this. And if you guys want to help try and financially

00:04:00.260 support the channel, you can hit the join button below the show. It makes the channel more sustainable

00:04:05.180 for me and allows me to be less reliant on the YouTube algorithm. A great example of what I mean

00:04:10.540 by that is a few days ago, I made a video about the BC Conservative leadership race and the overall

00:04:16.940 polling in British Columbia right now. That video is quite long. I went into a lot of detail and talked

00:04:22.500 about every single one of the BC Conservative leadership candidates. But because it's not

00:04:27.420 exactly the most spicy video of all time, it doesn't do that well. But those who want to know

00:04:33.520 information about the race do appreciate that stuff. And by having that monthly support by the members of

00:04:39.320 the channel, it allows me to do a video like that knowing it's not going to be super friendly to the

00:04:43.900 algorithm. Anyways, let's get into this. I want to first go to the Conservative on the panel,

00:04:50.220 hear him describe Mark Carney's performance in terms of any wins, any accomplishments he's gotten

00:04:56.220 done. And then I want to jump over to the Liberal and show you how similar what both of them say are

00:05:01.700 on a fundamental level. That is exactly where I want to pick it up because, you know, we're

00:05:08.180 approaching the first break week of this year. We are just a couple of weeks away from the first

00:05:13.140 anniversary of Mark Carney becoming the Liberal leader. So that's where I want to begin. In terms of the

00:05:18.660 assessment of what this government has been able to do. Has Mark Carney, has his government lived up

00:05:24.600 to what it campaigned it would be in the last election, Cole?

00:05:28.940 No, I don't think so.

00:05:29.940 So this is Cole Hogan. He is the Conservative on the panel. And again, I'm going to let him run

00:05:34.820 through. He's going to say a lot of stuff that you and I would agree with. I think he's a great

00:05:38.140 commentator. But I then want you to remember what he said and then match it up to what the Liberal

00:05:43.920 says. Now, the Liberal is going to say everything in a flowery way, but she's not going to factually 1.00

00:05:48.460 disagree with them exactly.

00:05:50.020 And I think there's a few things they need to do to really, like we've mentioned before on this

00:05:54.120 program, demonstrate those wins. And there is a spirit of cooperation on Parliament Hill right now.

00:06:00.480 So, you know, the Conservatives voted for Bill C-5, the major projects bill. They voted for the GST

00:06:07.020 bill the other day. They actually put forward a unanimous consent motion to push forward the GST bill

00:06:12.740 even faster. And they're willing to work on, well, I think Pierre said they'll vote for anything that

00:06:17.200 makes groceries more affordable. And they're willing to work on the crime bill as well. So I think right

00:06:21.760 now we're not anywhere near an election for all those reasons, because I think the Conservatives

00:06:26.080 see that they need to meet the moment in terms of cross the aisle cooperation. But Mark Carney in

00:06:31.000 particular and the Liberals, they really do need some to demonstrate some wins on the domestic front

00:06:35.920 because there really isn't anything measurable that we can point to. They had a housing

00:06:39.920 announcement that was completely buried by the EV strategy because the government has only built

00:06:44.620 about 7,500 houses when they need to build about half a million by each year to keep up with

00:06:50.220 population growth. So if they don't get any major wins on the domestic front, it's going to be pretty

00:06:54.660 hard to go back to the electorate and ask for a majority mandate. Now, I also just want to quickly

00:06:59.540 talk about what he just said there about kind of conservative strategy of, you know, voting with the

00:07:04.920 Liberals. It is actually very smart right now for Polyev to be voting with the Liberals on much of

00:07:11.080 this stuff. Because the thing is, the GST rebate really isn't going to do all that much. And you

00:07:16.580 could say, well, that's it's bad policy, the Conservatives should vote against it. The problem

00:07:21.540 with voting against it as the Conservatives is then if it gets defeated, or you're not part of it,

00:07:27.460 it looks like you're blocking benefits for Canadians, that you don't want people getting the grocery

00:07:32.400 rebate. Now, the rebate's silly. I think it's going to cause more inflation. I think also a lot of 0.73

00:07:37.580 people are going to be ticked off that they're not included in it because it's only for the bottom 30%

00:07:42.300 of income earners. But the thing is that it's worse if you're the Conservatives and you don't vote for it

00:07:47.120 because the Liberals get to go into the next election saying the Conservatives are trying to block

00:07:51.120 all the benefits that Mark Carney's trying to give you. And so they're basically, that's where it

00:07:56.860 becomes a little bit of a game of cat and mouse. They don't want to go to an election on the basis of

00:08:01.700 blocking at least surface level popular Liberal legislation. They would rather it be over

00:08:08.060 something really big the Liberals are doing. And even then, it kind of steals the accomplishment

00:08:12.560 away from the Liberals because it becomes a unanimous thing. And if it doesn't work out very well,

00:08:17.320 the Conservatives said, well, we gave you our votes, we let you pass it without any friction

00:08:22.100 because you thought it was going to be so helpful. And it turns out it wasn't just like we said.

00:08:26.600 But now let's get over to the Liberal on the panel to make my point that even the Liberals

00:08:31.580 know that Carney hasn't accomplished much.

00:08:34.500 What would you say about, you know, living up to the promise? Really, and dovetail that

00:08:38.360 with the accomplishments that you would say the Liberals have been able to accomplish under Mark

00:08:42.320 Carney?

00:08:42.740 Yeah, but I think to the point of where the polls set, I think he has been very successful

00:08:47.260 and he's told Canadians what he was going to do and more importantly, who he was going to be.

00:08:51.520 See, now you can already feel the pivot happening. She's about to get to the point where she just 0.59

00:08:55.660 admits he doesn't actually have a lot of wins right now. But immediately she's just saying,

00:08:58.920 well, we know he's doing a good job and that he's what Canadians want because the polls show that

00:09:04.200 he's doing quite well. Okay, well, that's different because the polls are the way they

00:09:08.120 are because of Donald Trump and because Canadians will naturally or people of any country will

00:09:13.180 rally around the current party in power when opposing the at least imagined threat of an outside

00:09:20.400 force. Now, I don't actually think that Trump's a massive threat to Canada. And I think our

00:09:24.580 negotiators on trade have been terrible. But to the average Canadian who's not a big political

00:09:29.560 watcher, they see it as a Trump-Carney conflict. So they're more willing to vote for Carney.

00:09:33.960 So I would disagree with Laura Pennell here, who is acting like somehow the polling is a direct

00:09:40.620 reflection of the polling is somehow a reflection of Mark Carney's performance. It really isn't. It's

00:09:48.200 complete outside factor driving this. But then notice that she says, well, you know, he was honest

00:09:52.740 about who he is because he's not honest about his actual accomplishments because he hasn't

00:09:56.640 accomplished the things that he promised to do. So instead, we're going to do this like, well,

00:10:00.340 you saw in the glint of his eye that he wasn't going to do the things he said he was going to do

00:10:06.440 and you're happy with it anyways. He has been very successful and he's told Canadians what he was

00:10:10.940 going to do and more importantly, who he was going to be. Oh, who he was going to be. Oh, we don't

00:10:16.100 actually care about real accomplishments. We care about who he was going to be. But let's get into the

00:10:20.360 accomplishments section of this. And that these are extremely and I hate using this word like

00:10:24.360 unprecedented or challenging times. And they wanted someone who could roll with the punches and be a

00:10:30.380 steady at the helm of the ship. And I think that's what they're getting. And so I understand and I agree

00:10:35.740 that they're going to have to find some wins in the levels over the next few months. These promises

00:10:40.280 that they've made on infrastructure, on housing and cost of living are going to have to start to roll

00:10:44.440 out. But I also think so that's that's hilarious. So she talks about how well, Mark Carney has been

00:10:50.680 the steady hand on the wheel of the ship and Canadians appreciate the fact that he's, you know,

00:10:56.680 firm or he's some they talk about him like they're describing a mattress. Well, he's very firm,

00:11:02.760 but soft. And he's always there for us at night. It's like, but then she moves into the you know,

00:11:07.960 but he does kind of have to start moving on all these accomplishments and get something done on

00:11:11.960 housing, health care, affordability, all this stuff, you know, pretty much everything.

00:11:16.280 Name me the place where we're doing better. Even areas where we need to spend more on the military.

00:11:21.800 Well, yeah, he's earmarking more to be spent on the military, but we still haven't

00:11:25.640 actually improved the military in any way now. Housing starts are down. Inflation's way up.

00:11:31.640 Jobs are down. Manufacturing jobs are way down. And now we even have certain liberal MPs

00:11:38.920 like Jenna Suds and Bruce Fanjoy in the Ottawa area having to now oppose their own Prime Minister

00:11:45.960 Carney and say that they oppose his back to work order for their for federal workers,

00:11:51.960 because those two ridings are kind of the outskirts of Ottawa. They're not exactly

00:11:56.840 attached to Ottawa directly. And a lot of federal workers moved out to those ridings and Mark Carney

00:12:02.280 wanting workers to go back to work, which is something I actually agree with. You should be

00:12:06.440 present in the office to work your federal job in Ottawa. They're actually having to push back on him

00:12:12.120 because they technically never ran on that. And that's going to start taking off a lot of those

00:12:17.400 liberal voting public sector workers and may push them over to the NDP if Carney's not careful. Now,

00:12:23.240 he's right to tell the workers to go back to work, but the liberals are doing like the problem is that

00:12:28.680 this is considered like a conservative thing to do. And the liberal base doesn't want him to do

00:12:34.600 those conservative things. But anyways, I'll let her keep going here. Canadians see that leadership

00:12:39.320 and that steady helm. I think people right now are very stressed at home. They're scared at home.

00:12:44.120 There's a lot of noise on the news right now, and he gives people a lot of confidence. And so I don't

00:12:49.160 think we should kind of discount what that is. And I think he's looking at this in generational wins,

00:12:56.280 and he needs to find a way to to find those more immediate political wins. Okay, it's generational wins.

00:13:02.200 So he's not actually going to get anything done right now, even though if you just cut taxes,

00:13:06.280 our economy would be doing fantastic overnight. If you just cut taxes, everything solves itself.

00:13:12.760 So many problems are just a problem of how bad the taxes are. But to occupy generational wins,

00:13:17.960 that's basically saying, well, you know, he's focused on the wins that come eight years later,

00:13:22.760 aka, he's not going to do any of it. He doesn't have to actually accomplish it because he'll just say

00:13:27.640 in eight years when he's not prime minister, oh, well, you know, the thing that the conservatives are

00:13:31.560 doing that's working, that was because of something I did during my prime ministership.

00:13:36.520 She is right, he doesn't have any immediate wins, and he'll need them. As soon as Trump is out of the

00:13:41.080 headlines, you will start to see the polling go back towards the mean, which is probably around

00:13:46.040 a tie ballgame. And as we saw in that abacus data poll, the problem with a lot of the liberal polling

00:13:52.120 is that it's all bound up in the sort of Toronto area, not even the GTA, just Toronto, just Montreal,

00:14:00.440 just, you know, some of the other big cities in Winnipeg and in Vancouver. And that's a lot of

00:14:06.280 seats. The problem is, is if you start losing the southwest of Ontario pretty hard, or you start

00:14:11.560 losing seats in Brampton, Mississauga, Hamilton, on in the Maritimes, you'll lose a couple other seats

00:14:17.560 in the lower mainland, Kelowna gets recaptured by the conservatives. Now, it's pretty impossible to

00:14:23.800 actually win the election, you can sweep all the Vancouver ridings, all the Montreal ridings,

00:14:29.080 all of the Toronto ridings. But if you start losing the GTA, the Maritimes, and you start getting

00:14:33.560 cleaned up in the north in the southwest of Ontario and some of these other places in British Columbia,

00:14:38.600 now the conservatives are getting to that point where they're 10-15 seats away from a majority

00:14:43.480 government or even at a majority. Anyways, but with all that being said, thank you guys for watching

00:14:48.760 today. You know, this was just a bit of an overview of that one clip I wanted to go over and talk about

00:14:55.640 sort of the dynamics of the next federal election because a lot of people are seeing the Liberals

00:15:00.600 far ahead in the polls and they think that this is permanent. They're not. One, the Liberals are not 15

00:15:05.720 points ahead like what you'll see with ECOS or what you'll see with Main Street Research. They're not

00:15:10.520 behind, but they're not ahead by that much. And when we understand that why they're ahead,

00:15:15.800 you wouldn't want to be Mark Carney right now, not in the sense that, of course, you want to be

00:15:19.720 whatever party is leading, but in the sense that it's not like this is some sort of lead that you

00:15:24.920 should be jealous of. It's temporary because like with Trump in the last election, when Trump pops up

00:15:31.800 in the news, the Liberals rise. But if he's distant from the news cycle for a month or so,

00:15:36.840 the Conservatives come back up and oftentimes they start leading. You would rather be the party

00:15:41.480 that's winning on the issues rather than the party that only wins if Trump happens to pop up

00:15:46.040 in the headlines again. Anyways, well, with all that being said, thank you guys for watching.

00:15:52.440 Like, share, subscribe, comment, and I'll see you all next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 15, 2026

Liberal strategists admits Carney has NO WINS in government!

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