The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - November 25, 2024


Liberal support plummets to 14% - How is Justin Trudeau still leader？!？


Episode Stats


Length

19 minutes

Words per minute

181.16475

Word count

3,453

Sentence count

239

Harmful content

Misogyny

4

sentences flagged

Hate speech

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have just gotten a national poll result that is worse than the Liberals did in the 2011 election. And that's if you take out the undecideds from the poll result which actually makes it look a little bit better for the Liberals.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.320 Ladies and gentlemen, it finally happened.
00:00:04.420 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have just gotten a national poll result
00:00:09.400 that is worse than how Michael Ignatieff's Liberals performed in the 2011 federal election.
00:00:17.480 Remember, the 2011 federal election was the one that Stephen Harper got his majority government in,
00:00:23.340 and the Liberals came in third place behind Jack Layton's NDP, both in seat count and the popular vote.
00:00:32.160 Ignatieff's Liberals only got 18% of the vote,
00:00:36.580 and I'm about to show you a poll result from Main Street Research, a credible pollster,
00:00:42.080 that is significantly worse than that 18% result.
00:00:46.660 Even the top-line numbers are worse than that 18% result.
00:00:50.720 The Liberals only got 17% in this poll.
00:00:55.000 But wait for it, that's if you take out the undecideds from the poll result,
00:01:01.600 which actually makes it look a little bit better for the Liberals.
00:01:04.960 In fact, the Liberals only got 14% in this national poll
00:01:10.860 when you add in people who don't know where they're going to be placing their vote.
00:01:15.000 And granted, sometimes undecideds just don't end up voting at all,
00:01:18.880 so they actually do end up becoming irrelevant.
00:01:21.980 But still, the fact that there are this many undecideds,
00:01:25.340 equal amounts of undecideds to what the Liberals are getting in the poll, is embarrassing.
00:01:30.840 I don't know what's keeping Justin Trudeau in as the Liberals' leader and the Prime Minister.
00:01:36.760 Or I guess I do know it's massive corruption,
00:01:40.480 and the fact that the Liberal Party basically operates like a dictatorship at this point,
00:01:44.860 where to get rid of Justin Trudeau, you would, like, literally have to physically pick him up
00:01:49.880 and, like, dump him on an island somewhere and, like, you know, not report where he was.
00:01:54.360 And then the Liberals have to appoint a new leader,
00:01:56.060 because there's no mechanism to get rid of Justin Trudeau as the leader of the party.
00:02:00.820 He chooses when to step down.
00:02:02.560 Members can't vote to get rid of him.
00:02:04.200 Caucus can't vote to get rid of him.
00:02:06.180 It's a complete clown show.
00:02:07.840 So I want to get a little bit deeper into these numbers,
00:02:11.060 because I do find it quite interesting.
00:02:12.540 But before I get into that, I just want to remind you,
00:02:15.620 if you are not yet a subscriber of this channel,
00:02:17.340 make sure you go down and hit subscribe, like this video,
00:02:19.980 and if you want to support us, donate to the Gives and Go.
00:02:22.660 We have linked in the comments section below.
00:02:25.360 It's pinned there.
00:02:26.100 And you can also sign up on my website, wyattclaypool.com.
00:02:29.360 So before anyone thinks, like, well, undecideds are taken out,
00:02:33.280 that throws off all the numbers.
00:02:34.480 Okay, remember, the Conservatives had 47% here, Liberal 17.
00:02:39.740 Let's not mishear that that is a 30% lead for the Conservatives.
00:02:44.980 That's wild.
00:02:46.040 And while this is not Main Street's normal IVR-type polling,
00:02:50.500 although Polling Canada has it labeled as an IVR poll,
00:02:53.220 this is their online panel.
00:02:55.360 And Main Street, Kudo Maggie, has said they've had very good luck with it.
00:02:58.600 It is decently accurate based on how they've polled races with it in the past 0.60
00:03:02.880 and what the results were.
00:03:03.940 They just used this for the American election,
00:03:06.260 and they were decently close to the state results.
00:03:09.680 With this poll, though, you can't just say, well, it's thrown off
00:03:13.780 because undecideds aren't added in.
00:03:16.480 This is a great result for the Conservatives.
00:03:18.860 A 42% result with undecideds added in demonstrates to me that it's not that
00:03:24.780 people are parking their votes with the Conservatives
00:03:26.780 because they don't know what to do with them.
00:03:28.500 Yeah, they don't like Justin Trudeau, so I guess I'm going to vote Conservative.
00:03:31.720 No, no, people aren't decisively voting Conservative.
00:03:35.380 42%.
00:03:35.900 Even if they got not a single extra vote from that 14% of undecideds,
00:03:41.180 42% is fantastic.
00:03:43.720 There are 3% of people who also still said that they're voting for the PPC in this poll.
00:03:48.620 The Liberals only have 14%.
00:03:50.000 The NDP only have 14%.
00:03:52.260 That means the PPC are getting 21% of what the Liberals currently have.
00:03:58.080 Just insane.
00:03:59.560 The Greens have 5%.
00:04:01.840 They are now within punching distance of the NDP and the Liberals' polling numbers
00:04:07.540 in terms of the seat counts.
00:04:09.400 These seat counts would not put...
00:04:12.560 I've seen people already go through what this would actually result in for the Liberals.
00:04:16.860 I've seen it go down to like 21 seats.
00:04:20.000 And only two of the seats wouldn't be in Quebec.
00:04:22.960 It'd be like one seat in Ontario, like maybe Rosedale with Chrystia Freeland.
00:04:27.740 And then there would be like, I don't even know what the seat is in the Maritimes at this point
00:04:31.280 that they would actually be able to hold on to.
00:04:32.820 But there is supposedly a Maritime seat in this mess that the Liberals could still hold on to.
00:04:39.480 Let's go down a little bit farther.
00:04:41.100 I don't like to go through the Main Street numbers too much because you do have to pay for them.
00:04:46.880 But I'll always show you a little snippet which doesn't ruin the exclusivity of the Main Street numbers.
00:04:53.400 These are extremely bad.
00:04:55.500 Oh, sorry.
00:04:56.120 Let me plug my laptop here.
00:04:57.420 I'm incompetent sometimes at running this show.
00:04:59.320 So this is broken down by age, gender, and region in terms of the party support.
00:05:05.480 This is the real death knell.
00:05:06.920 And let's just say for argument's sake, this is a pure outlier.
00:05:10.660 Within a year, the polls are never going to look like this again.
00:05:13.880 But the fact that an outlier can look like this,
00:05:16.540 like an outlier is usually a poll that doesn't really reflect reality.
00:05:20.140 Maybe this one isn't reflective of reality.
00:05:22.120 Maybe Main Street just got a really bad sample.
00:05:25.000 Okay, but the fact that it wasn't an outlier that made it look closer where the liberals are close to conservatives.
00:05:32.980 When outliers are only ever going in the direction of making it look worse for the liberals,
00:05:36.800 that's probably because it's closer to reality than you would think.
00:05:39.920 So here's with gender. 0.95
00:05:41.460 This is a big deal for the liberals.
00:05:43.580 Male gender gap is insane. 0.99
00:05:45.700 Only 11.1% of men with undecideds added in would consider voting for the liberals.
00:05:51.820 Only 8.3% of people within the age demographic range of 18 to 34.
00:05:58.100 This has become a significantly older party for the liberals.
00:06:01.760 Their strength is mostly in 50 to 65 plus.
00:06:04.820 A lot of retirees, a lot of people who, you know,
00:06:08.020 they vote liberal because the liberals generally maintain pension benefits,
00:06:11.700 and it's been the party they voted for for decades.
00:06:13.840 That even happened in British Columbia with the NDP.
00:06:17.300 The NDP way overperformed with older demographics compared to younger demographics,
00:06:22.160 because at some point, not any of you who watch my show who might be in that older age bracket,
00:06:27.160 but when people just sort of watch legacy media news, they watch hockey, and that's kind of it,
00:06:31.800 they tend to vote the way that they voted for the last five elections.
00:06:35.000 And for the most part, there wasn't any other options but the BC liberals and the BC NDP for so long
00:06:39.880 that BC NDP is just my default.
00:06:42.020 I go, I vote for them, they keep my pension benefits generally stable,
00:06:45.080 and you don't really have to live in full reality because you don't really go to work,
00:06:49.260 you don't experience crime as much, you don't have to pay taxes.
00:06:52.660 You pay taxes but not on like a large income, just on pension benefits.
00:06:57.440 This is insane.
00:06:58.980 Alberta, you know, my home province, good thing, 6.7% of people are planning on voting liberal in Alberta.
00:07:05.640 Is there one place worse?
00:07:06.660 Yes, there is.
00:07:08.100 Prairies.
00:07:09.240 And this is, again, not some poll where they only polled like five people.
00:07:13.420 There was like 1,100 people they polled.
00:07:16.500 Maybe it's a panel error.
00:07:17.860 I have to keep repeating that because maybe it's a panel error.
00:07:20.920 But who could guess?
00:07:22.620 Who could guess why people don't like the liberals?
00:07:25.300 It's almost like they have an entirely awful message.
00:07:29.580 I'm a conservative.
00:07:31.040 Obviously, I'm a conservative person.
00:07:32.780 I even ran in a federal conservative nomination.
00:07:36.160 And I'm not somebody who like promotes the conservatives because, oh my goodness,
00:07:39.680 I desperately like hope that they would like me.
00:07:42.000 I got kicked out of a federal nomination because some, you know, frankly corrupt advisor
00:07:46.660 at the top of the federal party wanted their friend to win or an ally of theirs to win.
00:07:51.000 I made sure that person still didn't win even though they kicked me out
00:07:54.020 and they engineered the race for them to win.
00:07:56.000 So I'm not like here to be like a conservative party like shill.
00:08:00.260 I say whatever the heck I want.
00:08:01.900 But from a conservative perspective, someone who is very conservative,
00:08:05.800 I know that you could say take it with a grain of salt because you're not a liberal.
00:08:09.600 But who is this appealing to?
00:08:11.480 The liberals post more fake outrage from Pierre Polyev.
00:08:14.400 And it says November 21st, 2024.
00:08:16.740 400,000 kids are forced to eat at food banks.
00:08:19.560 And then he voted against the National School Food Program to provide 400,000 more with kids healthy
00:08:25.960 or 400 more kids with healthy meals in schools every year.
00:08:29.640 Guys, people don't think after nine years of liberal failures that we just need one or two more programs
00:08:38.400 and we're going to be rocking, rocketing towards utopia.
00:08:42.280 We are well past that.
00:08:44.260 The funny thing about the liberals is that Justin Trudeau should get like a lifetime achievement award
00:08:50.140 from the Frazier Institute or some other conservative organization because he has managed the economy,
00:08:55.800 managed programs, the tax system so poorly that people, especially young people,
00:09:01.860 are becoming very fiscally and socially conservative.
00:09:06.060 He needs a lifetime achievement award because only he, through terrible governance,
00:09:10.420 could convince people that, you know, maybe spending money on all this nonsense is a bad thing.
00:09:16.580 Here is Brian Breguet.
00:09:18.600 He ran the numbers through his model.
00:09:21.020 He runs the website Too Close to Call.
00:09:23.800 He was also one of the B.C. conservative candidates in the last election here in Vancouver Langar.
00:09:30.180 Great guy.
00:09:31.180 He says,
00:09:31.460 And again, the only thing that is currently keeping Justin Trudeau in as the prime minister
00:09:58.640 is the fact that his party cannot remove him.
00:10:01.840 And I know right now Justin Trudeau is technically trying to make changes to his policy
00:10:06.440 and back off some of his real radicalism.
00:10:09.020 The problem is, is that the rot set in too long ago for us to just simply spray something on it
00:10:15.080 and hope that it's going to go away.
00:10:16.980 Yes, he reduced immigration numbers, not by nearly enough.
00:10:20.340 I was advocating the other day that we should be reducing,
00:10:23.560 capping permanent residencies to 100,000 people.
00:10:26.500 And then I would actually probably want 10,000 caps,
00:10:30.560 like a 10,000 person cap on individual countries
00:10:33.120 that more than 10,000 people can't come from that specific country per year.
00:10:38.660 That's reasonable.
00:10:40.040 Just bringing down new permanent residencies to 395,000 is not enough.
00:10:44.560 We still also have temporary foreign workers and students on top of that.
00:10:47.860 We should also just be slashing benefits to people who are not citizens.
00:10:51.520 If you don't have the money to live here,
00:10:53.220 you shouldn't show up and then think that you're going to get money.
00:10:55.440 You shouldn't be able to, frankly, access a food bank multiple times a week
00:10:59.820 if you showed up here and you're not a citizen.
00:11:02.360 You don't get to show up and then have everyone pay for you to live here.
00:11:06.140 That's ridiculous.
00:11:07.260 If I move to Luxembourg, I can't complain that it's expensive.
00:11:11.920 I chose to move to Luxembourg, a country with a median income of like 87,000
00:11:17.240 or I think it's like 70,000 euros.
00:11:19.700 I can't sustain myself there.
00:11:23.420 Anyways, and then he's now doing this GST holiday, this HST holiday,
00:11:28.120 which he didn't inform the provinces of, which is causing like massive problems.
00:11:31.980 You can't just suddenly be like, oh, yeah, by the way, guys,
00:11:35.080 you're not going to get any sales tax revenue for the next few weeks here,
00:11:39.860 for the next two months.
00:11:40.700 And then he's copying Doug Ford, not on a good policy.
00:11:46.060 There's not many Doug Ford policies I like, where instead of giving $200
00:11:49.860 to everyone in the province of Ontario like Doug Ford is trying to do,
00:11:54.300 he's going to give, Trudeau is going to give people $250
00:11:57.340 if you make less than $150,000 a year.
00:12:00.840 And someone corrected me.
00:12:02.040 You don't even get it if you're a senior, which is really stupid
00:12:05.220 because seniors are one of the demographics, the liberals,
00:12:08.440 as I was showing, disproportionately do well with.
00:12:10.820 And so he's like kicking his own base in the teeth over this 250 bucks.
00:12:16.760 Why would you even give it to people making $150,000?
00:12:19.820 Give it to people making less than like 80,000.
00:12:22.800 I'm not a big handout guy.
00:12:25.200 Just reduce taxes.
00:12:26.620 Just reduce the...
00:12:27.720 How...
00:12:28.300 Okay, I'm going to give advice to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau right now.
00:12:32.400 I know, but, but, but, don't give him advice.
00:12:34.940 I don't want him to win.
00:12:36.620 He's going to lose anyways.
00:12:38.000 And it's good that maybe we all suffer a little bit less in the next year.
00:12:40.880 Plus, he's not going to listen to me at all.
00:12:42.800 Good idea is impenetrable to the head of Justin Trudeau.
00:12:47.560 What they should be doing, reduce the overall GST by 1.5%.
00:12:51.760 Reduce income taxes in all brackets by 1.5%.
00:12:55.220 It's a small thing.
00:12:56.480 And then just reduce, you know, DEI spending, HR, and then get rid of like a bunch of stupid foreign aid spending.
00:13:04.900 We currently, instead of providing economic opportunities there, we currently send money to West Africa to fund abortions.
00:13:13.080 Not, you know, money so that they can help grow their family and have jobs and all this stuff, only to kill your kids.
00:13:19.140 This is where I always say with the liberals, when it comes to life issues, they're not pro-choice.
00:13:23.300 They're just goblins.
00:13:24.440 I know I'm pro-life.
00:13:26.440 I'm very pro-life.
00:13:27.640 But, like, there is a difference between being like, well, I think there should be some choice here.
00:13:32.320 And Canada has, like, the craziest laws on abortion.
00:13:34.760 We are like North Korea. 0.70
00:13:35.680 You can do whatever the heck you want.
00:13:37.420 But, like, they literally will vote against laws to protect, like, pregnant women from being assaulted or killed.
00:13:43.980 It's nuts.
00:13:44.700 There's no upgraded sentencing for that.
00:13:46.860 You could just assault a pregnant woman. 0.98
00:13:48.300 And it's just a basic assault, even if she miscarries your child because of it. 0.99
00:13:51.520 It's nuts.
00:13:52.160 But if the liberals just back up a little bit of the radicalism, a little bit of the wokeism, they might be able to do better.
00:13:58.820 I know their own base is going to attack them, their progressive base, but it's worth it if you want the party to exist in the long run.
00:14:06.200 And I know from people on this channel, you might think, well, why would you want the liberals to exist?
00:14:11.620 We should just want the liberals gone. 0.81
00:14:13.020 Because the conservatives need a strong opposition.
00:14:16.980 Even if I don't agree with what the liberals are saying, I want a rational opposition who I don't always agree with what they say, but they can provide some accountability.
00:14:25.300 The worst thing on the planet right now for the conservatives is having no opposition.
00:14:29.720 Because guess what?
00:14:30.500 They can run on literally nothing and get in.
00:14:33.520 I like Polyev.
00:14:34.480 I like a lot of the conservative MPs.
00:14:37.060 What we need, though, is for every party to become more pro-Canadian, to become more pro-free market, more pro-real values, wanting to slash immigration.
00:14:47.820 And then we'll have a parliament that functions. 0.86
00:14:50.320 We won't have the good party, the okay to good party.
00:14:54.200 Under O'Toole, I would consider the conservatives to have been a bad party.
00:14:57.540 But I'd rather us have a really great party and maybe another alternative really great party if the PPC was better at organizing itself and not just purity testing all the time.
00:15:07.740 And then we had some okay parties, parties that keep your party to account.
00:15:12.420 Right now, we have a good party and we have horrible nightmare fuel, just like socialists, communists, social revolutionaries.
00:15:23.100 I'm going to make a video at some point on this one organization now going after Trudeau.
00:15:27.040 It's a migrant rights organization, migrant rights, as if you just show up here and you're allowed to have free everything.
00:15:33.360 And that's your right as a migrant.
00:15:34.560 They're attacking Trudeau because he reduced the amount of student visas, temporary foreign worker visas, I think refugee slots and whatnot, and then permanent residencies.
00:15:43.220 They're mad because they don't actually care about the health of the country.
00:15:46.600 They are radical activists who their only goal is more, more at all times.
00:15:51.980 If you ever bump up against an organization and they have no clear goal, they just want more.
00:15:59.340 Remember, those are radicals and run away from those people screaming.
00:16:03.380 Do not listen to them.
00:16:04.300 They have no rationality left.
00:16:06.980 So with the Liberal Party right now and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, one, get rid of Justin Trudeau.
00:16:12.880 I know they can't.
00:16:14.000 Then two, after you do that, just be a little bit more like, just copy and paste what Paul Martin did.
00:16:20.140 Just copy and paste what John Chrétien did.
00:16:22.480 And I think, even though I don't think they were perfect Prime Ministers or even good in some areas, they were bad in some areas, they were acceptable.
00:16:29.920 They were Canadian Prime Ministers because I don't consider Justin Trudeau a Canadian Prime Minister.
00:16:35.180 He is a, I don't like the word globalist.
00:16:37.900 I just consider him a leftist.
00:16:39.960 He just, you could insert him in any country and the policies would be the same because he doesn't actually care about Canada.
00:16:45.540 Nothing he does is tailored to Canada.
00:16:47.620 He is anti-energy in a very energy-heavy country.
00:16:50.680 He is anti-manufacturing in a country that could do a lot of manufacturing.
00:16:55.020 He is just anti-private property rights, anti-free speech in a Western democracy because he has a leftist mentality, not a Canadian Western mentality.
00:17:05.380 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:17:07.820 Again, if you want to support the show, donate to the Give, Send, Go.
00:17:10.980 It's linked in the description below and pinned at the top of the comments.
00:17:15.940 And I just want to do a quick plug for my website, wyantclaypool.com.
00:17:20.100 If you want my recommendations for local nominations or leadership races, that's both federal and provincial, go sign up there.
00:17:27.720 I have around 185 people on the list right now.
00:17:30.400 I'm hoping to get that into the thousands at some point.
00:17:33.200 So if there's ever a nomination going on in any given riding and we want to make sure it's a real conservative being nominated to these parties, a real conservative becoming the leader of a party, we can actually get behind that person.
00:17:45.320 I can inform you about some nitty-gritty stuff because I can't really make a video on some of these local races.
00:17:51.540 It would be too niche.
00:17:52.340 Not enough people would know about it.
00:17:53.700 When I was running in Signal Hill, you can see the little card I have back there when I was running.
00:17:57.920 I would have to plug it in every single video.
00:18:01.440 And maybe every video, like 12 people would actually live in my riding.
00:18:05.640 But the chance people even realize I'm talking about the riding they live in is pretty slim.
00:18:10.720 And so if I want to help out other people and we want to get real conservatives in, I just have to sign up right away.
00:18:16.660 Maybe there's not even going to be a nomination in your riding in like six years.
00:18:20.040 Just be on there in case.
00:18:22.400 So even if there's like some new thing pops up in your area or there's a federal leadership race, I can evaluate people, tell you what I think about each one of them, and then you can decide whether or not you like them or not.
00:18:33.820 And you can even send me emails on my website about who you like in certain ridings to inform me or better inform me about what's going on so that everyone can make a more informed choice.
00:18:43.800 And again, we can basically rank people because it's always ranked votes in terms of most conservative to least conservative with the addition of most professional, most effective, most honest, all that stuff also added in.
00:18:59.540 Anyways, so that's it for me today, guys.
00:19:02.040 See you around.
00:19:02.640 Thanks for watching the channel.