In this episode, we have a new pollster who is actually putting out realistic numbers for the next federal election. They are Abacus Data and Innovation Research, and they are the only two pollsters who are actually doing a good job at predicting the outcome of the election. In this video, we will talk about why Abacus is actually getting the polls right and why everyone else is not.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and I am happy to report today that we have a second pollster who's actually putting out realistic numbers for the next federal election.
00:00:11.640I will keep repeating it until the cows come home.
00:00:14.700Elections do not swing as hard as most of these pollsters are showing.
00:00:18.420You can't have the conservatives up 25% in December and then in early February have the liberals in the lead.
00:00:25.080That is not how polling changes over time. Public opinion changes slowly, and when there is a news cycle that justifies it.
00:00:33.940But let's just jump right into this innovation research poll right away, because I think that they do a very good job showing us what the landscape currently looks like.
00:00:42.880Have the liberals received a bump in support? Yes, they have, but they are still 13% behind the conservatives, and I want to show you exactly why.
00:00:52.020Before I get into it, guys, just remember to like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, maybe point out other pollsters who are doing a good job.
00:01:01.220The only two I know at the moment who are doing a good job federally are Innovation Research and Abacus Data, and they're doing a good job because they balance the types of voters who are actually turning out.
00:01:13.120And I will get to what I mean by that in just a second.
00:01:15.560But here are the top line numbers. We have the federal conservatives at 40%, liberals 27%, NDP 16%.
00:01:24.560That is also a tell that this is a much better poll than others.
00:01:28.300The NDP were never going to collapse to 11% overnight.
00:01:32.140Yes, they are going to retract a little bit, and 16% makes sense.
00:01:36.180This poll also has the Bloc Québécois at 9%, which means they're doing quite well in Quebec, Greens at 4%, People's Party 3%, and they even have Maverick Party added in, but they clocked in at 0%, and Other also has 0%.
00:01:49.860Here is what their numbers have looked like over time.
00:01:52.940So you can see that the conservatives have indeed, in January and February, dipped down a little bit, and the liberals have dipped up a little bit.
00:02:01.620It makes sense. Justin Trudeau is no longer around, and it was going to be very unrealistic for the liberals to actually continue sitting at just 20% forever.
00:02:12.100And so I want to now take you to the next part that actually demonstrates why Innovation and Abacus are getting the polls right and why everyone else is not.
00:02:22.020I can show you the regionals here, too, if you want to quickly glance at it.
00:02:25.680They have the Bloc at 38%. That might be a bit high. I'd probably ballpark them more at 33%, 34%.
00:02:32.180But, you know, polls have a little bit of a tendency to, you know, gurgle back and forth in terms of where parties are at.
00:02:38.680They'll be a little bit too high one week. They'll be a little bit too low the next week.
00:02:42.720But what this pollster has done extremely well is that they actually lay down the Canadian electorate into different types of voters.
00:02:51.900And so when Innovation Research does a poll, if one type of voter is way overrepresented, they know that what likely happened is not a bunch of people changing the worldview.
00:03:05.000It's that they had a certain type of voter answering the poll too much.
00:03:08.500So if core left, which is 17% in this model, was suddenly 30%, you know that's probably not a realistic swing.
00:03:17.040Just the core leftists are voting a lot.
00:03:20.260And when populist conservatives are voting a lot in your poll, that might be why, if you had the PPC at 9%, that might be why.
00:03:27.340Not because everyone suddenly became super populist.
00:03:30.400But the thing that I want you guys to look at in this poll, and we're going to sort of focus in on in this video, is business liberals, 21%.
00:03:39.640So these are people who are probably more socially liberal, maybe not hyper-progressive, but they're people who believe in, you know, strong public services, a lot of social service spending.
00:03:51.020They back the general idea of maybe universal dental in principle, but maybe if it costs a lot, they might kind of, you know, get a little bit tight and they don't really like what you're doing.
00:04:01.400This is the voting bloc that the current liberal party is losing.
00:04:05.660And Innovation Research actually shows how the different types of voters have shifted since December.
00:04:11.940And this is where we really are seeing, like, this is really where we're seeing why the liberals are losing.
00:04:19.900So in December, the conservatives with business liberals are winning them with 43%.
00:04:27.580The liberals only have 27, and the NDP has 15.
00:04:32.160It's probably very downtown business liberals who maybe are just voting because they don't like the liberals in somewhere like Spadina, Fort York,
00:04:38.760and they don't want them to get back in again, so they're willing to vote NDP to get rid of them.
00:04:43.220But when January hits, the conservatives go from 43 down to 39 with the business liberals.
00:04:50.640First week of February, they're at 44.
00:05:36.000If you left liberals, people who will tell you that they are actually quite progressive, they are quite left-leaning on a lot of issues, they're actually being won currently by conservatives.
00:05:46.180I'm not sure if there's the bandwidth for the liberal party to even win these people back.
00:05:53.140Naturally, this is where the conservatives are really far behind, and I think it validates that this is actually a good measure of categorizing voters.
00:06:13.080And there's also Block 8, Greens 8, PPC 3.
00:06:16.300That's probably like one guy voting for them in this poll.
00:06:19.640But as we get to February, conservatives fall with core leftists from 24 to 17.
00:06:25.820Naturally, they were not the natural party for these people to vote for.
00:06:28.700But now the liberals are at 37, and the NDP is at 29.
00:06:32.500So a lot of core leftists have gone from conservatives probably just wanting Trudeau out, and now they're willing to vote for Carney while the NDP vote has actually maintained pretty steady there.
00:06:44.640That's also why I don't believe ECOS research when Frank Graves claims that the NDP has collapsed from 18% to 9.
00:07:21.380And so, yeah, this poll is why I think right now the liberals are in trouble.
00:07:26.640When you actually break it down to different types of voters, their gains with voters are very subtle.
00:07:32.180They're gaining back some business liberals a little bit.
00:07:36.100They're gaining back some left liberals.
00:07:38.280But the conservatives are still maintaining decent leads with them.
00:07:41.240The only area that the liberals have actually gained in significantly is core left, which, in my opinion, is telling you who Mark Carney is.
00:07:53.620He's not trying to grab away conservatives, people who are red Tories, who are maybe voting for Chiray in the 22 Conservative Party leadership.
00:08:02.720He is still in recovery mode trying to get back the default liberals that the Liberal Party has lost over the last two years.
00:08:09.920And I'm not sure if he's the right man for the job.
00:08:12.720I don't want him to be the right man for the job, but I don't think he's the man for the job from just an analyst perspective because it's been like he was the man in charge of all the policies that alienated these people in the first place.
00:08:26.560Mark Carney is a walking conservative advertisement because the man is a closet full of skeletons.
00:08:32.700You can go over how he's been advising Trudeau on all of the worst economic policies over the past four years.
00:08:38.460You can go after him for the fact that he only came back to Canada very recently because he wanted to run for prime minister, like Michael Ignatieff, but at least Michael Ignatieff was just south of the border.
00:08:49.800I guess maybe that plays better with the anti-American voter that at least he's not from the U.S., but whatever.
00:08:55.140He's a big backer of central bank digital currencies.
00:08:57.580He's a big backer of carbon tax tariffs.
00:09:00.320All of his policies are basically core left policies, and that's the sort of thing that's making the business liberals not want to come back.
00:09:07.980And I think the business liberals and some of these other default liberals who have now gone conservative, I think they're pretty set on at least giving the conservatives one election, and then the conservatives will have to earn that vote again.
00:09:19.980But they're not going back liberal because after about three terms, it's really hard to justify like, hey, let's take it for one more ride down the block.
00:09:30.760And Carney's far too as closely associated with the current government to really say that we put, you know, we haven't just put a new paint job on the car.
00:09:37.960We've actually changed out the engine and whatnot.
00:09:40.040We're not going to break down this time.
00:09:42.400Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:09:44.760I just want to make this a quick little polling update.
00:09:47.580By the way, hey, guys, if you live in Ontario, please vote for the new blue party in the provincial election.
00:09:52.800I just got back from leafleting literally 2,000 doors with Greg Staley from Diverge Media and Anthony Zambito.
00:10:05.220He's one of the candidates for the party running in Quinty, I think, somewhere out there.
00:10:11.960But, yeah, we've been absolutely, you know, running our shoe leather off.
00:10:15.660So if you live in Ontario, please, you know, help the movement that we're trying to start here and vote for the new blues because Ford's PCs are basically just federal liberals in a blue paint job.
00:10:27.300Anyways, so that's it for me today, guys.