The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 22, 2025


Liberals 13% behind Conservatives as ＂Business Liberals＂ go Blue

Topics
business liberals core left voters Carney and business liberals
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Mark Carney Michael Ignatieff Greg Staley Anthony Zambito Frank Graves
Carney think Canadians are REALLY stupid, look at his new slogan! Leftist MP starts petition to revoke Elon Musk's Canadian citizenship

Episode Stats


Length

10 minutes

Words per minute

183.43

Word count

1,925

Sentence count

122

Harmful content

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, we have a new pollster who is actually putting out realistic numbers for the next federal election. They are Abacus Data and Innovation Research, and they are the only two pollsters who are actually doing a good job at predicting the outcome of the election. In this video, we will talk about why Abacus is actually getting the polls right and why everyone else is not.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and I am happy to report today that we have a second pollster who's actually putting out realistic numbers for the next federal election.
00:00:11.640 I will keep repeating it until the cows come home.
00:00:14.700 Elections do not swing as hard as most of these pollsters are showing.
00:00:18.420 You can't have the conservatives up 25% in December and then in early February have the liberals in the lead.
00:00:25.080 That is not how polling changes over time. Public opinion changes slowly, and when there is a news cycle that justifies it.
00:00:33.940 But let's just jump right into this innovation research poll right away, because I think that they do a very good job showing us what the landscape currently looks like.
00:00:42.880 Have the liberals received a bump in support? Yes, they have, but they are still 13% behind the conservatives, and I want to show you exactly why.
00:00:52.020 Before I get into it, guys, just remember to like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, maybe point out other pollsters who are doing a good job.
00:01:01.220 The only two I know at the moment who are doing a good job federally are Innovation Research and Abacus Data, and they're doing a good job because they balance the types of voters who are actually turning out.
00:01:13.120 And I will get to what I mean by that in just a second.
00:01:15.560 But here are the top line numbers. We have the federal conservatives at 40%, liberals 27%, NDP 16%.
00:01:24.560 That is also a tell that this is a much better poll than others.
00:01:28.300 The NDP were never going to collapse to 11% overnight.
00:01:32.140 Yes, they are going to retract a little bit, and 16% makes sense. 0.98
00:01:36.180 This poll also has the Bloc Québécois at 9%, which means they're doing quite well in Quebec, Greens at 4%, People's Party 3%, and they even have Maverick Party added in, but they clocked in at 0%, and Other also has 0%.
00:01:49.860 Here is what their numbers have looked like over time.
00:01:52.940 So you can see that the conservatives have indeed, in January and February, dipped down a little bit, and the liberals have dipped up a little bit.
00:02:01.620 It makes sense. Justin Trudeau is no longer around, and it was going to be very unrealistic for the liberals to actually continue sitting at just 20% forever.
00:02:12.100 And so I want to now take you to the next part that actually demonstrates why Innovation and Abacus are getting the polls right and why everyone else is not.
00:02:22.020 I can show you the regionals here, too, if you want to quickly glance at it.
00:02:25.680 They have the Bloc at 38%. That might be a bit high. I'd probably ballpark them more at 33%, 34%.
00:02:32.180 But, you know, polls have a little bit of a tendency to, you know, gurgle back and forth in terms of where parties are at.
00:02:38.680 They'll be a little bit too high one week. They'll be a little bit too low the next week.
00:02:42.720 But what this pollster has done extremely well is that they actually lay down the Canadian electorate into different types of voters.
00:02:51.900 And so when Innovation Research does a poll, if one type of voter is way overrepresented, they know that what likely happened is not a bunch of people changing the worldview.
00:03:05.000 It's that they had a certain type of voter answering the poll too much.
00:03:08.500 So if core left, which is 17% in this model, was suddenly 30%, you know that's probably not a realistic swing.
00:03:17.040 Just the core leftists are voting a lot.
00:03:20.260 And when populist conservatives are voting a lot in your poll, that might be why, if you had the PPC at 9%, that might be why.
00:03:27.340 Not because everyone suddenly became super populist.
00:03:30.400 But the thing that I want you guys to look at in this poll, and we're going to sort of focus in on in this video, is business liberals, 21%.
00:03:39.640 So these are people who are probably more socially liberal, maybe not hyper-progressive, but they're people who believe in, you know, strong public services, a lot of social service spending.
00:03:51.020 They back the general idea of maybe universal dental in principle, but maybe if it costs a lot, they might kind of, you know, get a little bit tight and they don't really like what you're doing.
00:04:01.400 This is the voting bloc that the current liberal party is losing.
00:04:05.660 And Innovation Research actually shows how the different types of voters have shifted since December.
00:04:11.940 And this is where we really are seeing, like, this is really where we're seeing why the liberals are losing.
00:04:19.900 So in December, the conservatives with business liberals are winning them with 43%.
00:04:27.580 The liberals only have 27, and the NDP has 15.
00:04:32.160 It's probably very downtown business liberals who maybe are just voting because they don't like the liberals in somewhere like Spadina, Fort York,
00:04:38.760 and they don't want them to get back in again, so they're willing to vote NDP to get rid of them.
00:04:43.220 But when January hits, the conservatives go from 43 down to 39 with the business liberals.
00:04:50.640 First week of February, they're at 44.
00:04:52.840 Second week, they're at 41.
00:04:54.440 And third week, they're at 38.
00:04:56.120 So they've been going down as Carney has been gaining momentum in the liberal leadership.
00:05:01.000 He is sort of a businessman.
00:05:03.020 He has that financial background that can make these voters more comfortable.
00:05:06.000 So they definitely have clawed it back a bit.
00:05:08.300 And the liberals have gone from just 27 in December under Trudeau to now 32.
00:05:14.200 They could keep this trend up.
00:05:16.160 But the problem is, for the liberals to actually win the 2025 federal election, I guarantee they need to flip this.
00:05:22.800 They need to be at 38 or 40%.
00:05:24.920 But the liberals just don't really have a solid base anymore.
00:05:29.100 Left liberals are actually kind of divided between the conservatives, liberals, and the NDP.
00:05:35.280 That's nuts.
00:05:36.000 If you left liberals, people who will tell you that they are actually quite progressive, they are quite left-leaning on a lot of issues, they're actually being won currently by conservatives.
00:05:46.180 I'm not sure if there's the bandwidth for the liberal party to even win these people back.
00:05:51.900 Even look at core left.
00:05:53.140 Naturally, this is where the conservatives are really far behind, and I think it validates that this is actually a good measure of categorizing voters.
00:06:00.140 Core leftists are like NDP stalwarts.
00:06:03.460 This is where Carney actually has had the best luck.
00:06:06.280 So in December 2024, conservatives are at 24% with this group.
00:06:10.820 Liberals are 29%, and NDP is 28%.
00:06:13.080 And there's also Block 8, Greens 8, PPC 3.
00:06:16.300 That's probably like one guy voting for them in this poll.
00:06:19.640 But as we get to February, conservatives fall with core leftists from 24 to 17.
00:06:25.820 Naturally, they were not the natural party for these people to vote for.
00:06:28.700 But now the liberals are at 37, and the NDP is at 29.
00:06:32.500 So a lot of core leftists have gone from conservatives probably just wanting Trudeau out, and now they're willing to vote for Carney while the NDP vote has actually maintained pretty steady there.
00:06:44.640 That's also why I don't believe ECOS research when Frank Graves claims that the NDP has collapsed from 18% to 9.
00:06:54.180 I'm no NDP guy.
00:06:55.760 I'm a very orthodox conservative.
00:06:58.360 At the same time, I know how NDP voters think.
00:07:01.480 They are very doggedly supportive of this absolute failure of a party.
00:07:06.960 And so they aren't just suddenly going to get up and leave because Mark Carney's running for the Liberal Party leadership.
00:07:13.200 If anything, he embodies a lot of things that the NDP hate.
00:07:16.380 He is like an elitist rich guy.
00:07:18.840 The NDP are not moving over for him.
00:07:21.380 And so, yeah, this poll is why I think right now the liberals are in trouble.
00:07:26.640 When you actually break it down to different types of voters, their gains with voters are very subtle.
00:07:32.180 They're gaining back some business liberals a little bit.
00:07:36.100 They're gaining back some left liberals.
00:07:38.280 But the conservatives are still maintaining decent leads with them.
00:07:41.240 The only area that the liberals have actually gained in significantly is core left, which, in my opinion, is telling you who Mark Carney is.
00:07:51.160 He is playing for the left vote.
00:07:53.620 He's not trying to grab away conservatives, people who are red Tories, who are maybe voting for Chiray in the 22 Conservative Party leadership.
00:08:02.220 No, no, no.
00:08:02.720 He is still in recovery mode trying to get back the default liberals that the Liberal Party has lost over the last two years.
00:08:09.920 And I'm not sure if he's the right man for the job.
00:08:12.720 I don't want him to be the right man for the job, but I don't think he's the man for the job from just an analyst perspective because it's been like he was the man in charge of all the policies that alienated these people in the first place.
00:08:26.560 Mark Carney is a walking conservative advertisement because the man is a closet full of skeletons.
00:08:32.700 You can go over how he's been advising Trudeau on all of the worst economic policies over the past four years.
00:08:38.460 You can go after him for the fact that he only came back to Canada very recently because he wanted to run for prime minister, like Michael Ignatieff, but at least Michael Ignatieff was just south of the border.
00:08:48.040 This guy was across an ocean.
00:08:49.800 I guess maybe that plays better with the anti-American voter that at least he's not from the U.S., but whatever.
00:08:55.140 He's a big backer of central bank digital currencies.
00:08:57.580 He's a big backer of carbon tax tariffs.
00:09:00.320 All of his policies are basically core left policies, and that's the sort of thing that's making the business liberals not want to come back.
00:09:07.980 And I think the business liberals and some of these other default liberals who have now gone conservative, I think they're pretty set on at least giving the conservatives one election, and then the conservatives will have to earn that vote again.
00:09:19.980 But they're not going back liberal because after about three terms, it's really hard to justify like, hey, let's take it for one more ride down the block.
00:09:28.480 You know, give us one more chance.
00:09:30.760 And Carney's far too as closely associated with the current government to really say that we put, you know, we haven't just put a new paint job on the car.
00:09:37.960 We've actually changed out the engine and whatnot.
00:09:40.040 We're not going to break down this time.
00:09:42.400 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:09:44.760 I just want to make this a quick little polling update.
00:09:47.580 By the way, hey, guys, if you live in Ontario, please vote for the new blue party in the provincial election.
00:09:52.800 I just got back from leafleting literally 2,000 doors with Greg Staley from Diverge Media and Anthony Zambito.
00:10:02.440 Is that his actual full name?
00:10:03.740 I don't know.
00:10:04.160 Greg can tell me later.
00:10:05.220 He's one of the candidates for the party running in Quinty, I think, somewhere out there.
00:10:11.960 But, yeah, we've been absolutely, you know, running our shoe leather off.
00:10:15.660 So if you live in Ontario, please, you know, help the movement that we're trying to start here and vote for the new blues because Ford's PCs are basically just federal liberals in a blue paint job.
00:10:27.300 Anyways, so that's it for me today, guys.
00:10:29.220 See you later.