The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - July 06, 2025


Liberals and Conservatives just 1% apart in new poll!

Topics
credentialism
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Mark Carney Justin Trudeau Maxime Bernier Sam Harris Shreya Teeth Polyev
Liberals hit $92 Billion deficit while Carney celebrates fake win CBC EXPOSED for Liberal corruption of news!

Episode Stats


Length

18 minutes

Words per minute

176.88

Word count

3,231

Sentence count

234

Harmful content

Misogyny

6

sentences flagged

Toxicity

6

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode of the podcast, Wyatt Claypool talks about a new poll that shows the Liberals are only 1 point behind the Tories in the polls. He also talks about Mark Carney screwing up pancakes just like his predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I have a very interesting poll I want to discuss with you guys today because I think it tells a story about what Canadian politics is currently like.
00:00:12.180 The Liberal government and Mark Carney are currently in a support honeymoon, but when you actually look at which party Canadians prefer to be in office, things are still extremely divided.
00:00:23.980 This abacus data poll that we're going to be discussing shows that the Liberals are only leading, right now, the Conservatives by 1%.
00:00:32.980 We will be getting to that in just a second, but first I just want to remind you guys, if you like my coverage of Canadian politics, make sure to leave a like on this video.
00:00:41.980 If you're not yet a subscriber, please hit the subscribe button. We're trying to make it to 100,000 by mid-December of this year.
00:00:47.980 And leave a comment on what you think about the current political situation in Canada.
00:00:52.980 But before I get into the more serious stuff, I do just want to cover a couple of videos, the first of which being Mark Carney screwing up flipping pancakes just like his predecessor, Justin Trudeau.
00:01:04.980 Now, do I care about this that much? Not really, but it's funny, so we're still going to play the video.
00:01:09.980 That's special. Yes. Yes, you can flip that one.
00:01:15.980 Oh, there you go. That's not it. That's not, that's not. I was better in Ottawa. I'm better in Ottawa.
00:01:29.980 I got to do another one. I got to do another one. I'm practicing. I got a little cocky there.
00:01:36.980 The, um, but I was not here.
00:01:39.980 No, no, I'll take, I'll take responsibility.
00:01:43.980 Okay. These are mine.
00:01:47.980 I'll even say that Mark Carney as a person doesn't come across like a bad guy.
00:01:54.980 I don't like his policies. I really don't like really his philosophy when it comes to politics.
00:02:00.980 But still, at least he takes, you know, screwing something up better than Justin Trudeau.
00:02:05.980 But this leads into, uh, what pure poly have said at the conservative party barbecue about Mark, about Mark Carney and his dealings with the United States, because he does make a reference to Mark Carney's pancake flipping in this clip.
00:02:20.980 Here we go.
00:02:21.980 And so let me start in a spirit of nonpartisanship as a Calgarian to welcome Prime Minister Mark Carney to his very first stampede in this role.
00:02:32.980 And he had, of course, to do the customary thing and flip some pancakes.
00:02:36.980 Now he thought he would be great at it because in his trade talks with Trump, he's had so much experience flip-flopping.
00:02:43.980 But still, it didn't go as planned.
00:02:51.980 One of the pancakes got broken in half and the other one splattered everywhere.
00:02:55.980 And he owned up to it.
00:02:58.980 But a careful review of a slow motion replay demonstrated exactly what the problem was.
00:03:05.980 He couldn't figure out whether to put his elbows up or down.
00:03:09.980 And so let me start in a spirit of nonpartisanship as a...
00:03:19.980 I don't know.
00:03:20.980 I thought that was a fun moment.
00:03:22.980 But yeah, let's get into the polling numbers now.
00:03:25.980 I'm done playing silly clips.
00:03:27.980 And now here's what you guys have actually come here for.
00:03:30.980 It is the polling numbers.
00:03:32.980 So right now, not only are the Conservatives only one point down from the Liberals.
00:03:37.980 I'll just use Shreya Teeth's posting of it right now for a second before I get into the official Abacus data PowerPoint.
00:03:45.980 But Shreya Teeth shows here new Abacus data poll.
00:03:49.980 Liberals are at 41%.
00:03:51.980 Conservatives are at 40%.
00:03:53.980 NDP, 9%.
00:03:54.980 Block, 7%.
00:03:55.980 Greens, 2%.
00:03:56.980 PPC, 2%.
00:03:57.980 Other, 0%.
00:03:58.980 And this is the percentage change it's showing since the last Abacus data poll came out.
00:04:04.980 So the Liberals have lost a point.
00:04:06.980 The Conservatives have gained a point.
00:04:08.980 NDP have gained 2.
00:04:09.980 Block have gained 1.
00:04:10.980 Greens down 1.
00:04:11.980 PPC up 1.
00:04:12.980 And so what this would actually result in, according to Shreya Teeth's election model... 0.99
00:04:17.980 And by the way, I'm not polling on an election model I like.
00:04:20.980 This guy's election model was the most accurate election model in the 2025 federal election.
00:04:27.980 The guy just graduated from grade 11 and he is doing polling projections better than anyone in Canadian politics right now.
00:04:34.980 And he actually shows this poll resulting in a minority government for the Conservatives.
00:04:40.980 Obviously, the outcome is influenced by what the underlying regional numbers look like.
00:04:45.980 But it would result in the Conservatives winning 158 seats.
00:04:49.980 Liberals 144.
00:04:50.980 Block, 27.
00:04:51.980 NDP, 12.
00:04:52.980 Greens, 2.
00:04:53.980 And then you can see where generally the strength of the Conservatives would lie.
00:04:58.980 Basically, they would start digging more into the Brampton, Mississauga area, into the GTA, picking up a couple seats in BC.
00:05:07.980 But again, this isn't that different of an election result compared to what we currently have.
00:05:12.980 This is about 40 seats changing hands between all of the different parties.
00:05:16.980 But now I want to get into the actual official posting of this poll by Abacus because I think it's very interesting what we see from it.
00:05:26.980 So this is the current government approval rating over the last year.
00:05:30.980 Since February of 2024, it's tracking this.
00:05:33.980 And I think it's because this is not showing that this is a fluke.
00:05:37.980 It has been a gradual rise since Justin Trudeau resigned and Mark Carney took over.
00:05:43.980 Back a year ago, we would have some disapproval rating numbers as high as 64% people disapproving of the government with only 23%, 22% of people approving of it.
00:05:56.980 Now, those things have reversed.
00:05:58.980 We have 52% of Canadians who approve of the government, 25% who disapprove.
00:06:04.980 Now, let me remind you, again, this tends to happen with every new government.
00:06:09.980 And we can sit here and say it's not really a new government.
00:06:11.980 It's a fourth liberal term.
00:06:13.980 They're acting pretty much the same as Justin Trudeau's liberals had in the first three terms.
00:06:18.980 There is going to be differences, but what Canadians, I think, more so appreciate is it's a stylistic difference.
00:06:25.980 You and I both know it's not going to be that much of a policy difference, but people see it's a different guy leading the government.
00:06:30.980 There's a few new faces in cabinet.
00:06:32.980 It feels new.
00:06:33.980 Let's give them the benefit of the doubt.
00:06:36.980 Now, remember this in the context of at the same time, the liberals and conservatives are only 1% away.
00:06:43.980 I think what this is demonstrating is a lot of people, while, again, they're willing to be more surface level patriotic right now because we're in a trade dispute with the United States and we have a somewhat new government, people will think nice things.
00:06:59.980 But if you ask them, who would you really like in government, you're not getting a lot of people to budge from saying conservative.
00:07:05.980 Because remember, 41 and a half people voted for the conservatives in this last election.
00:07:10.980 And since the election, they've only lost one point, which is in the margin of error.
00:07:14.980 The liberals are at 41%.
00:07:15.980 They got 43 on election night, still within the margin of error.
00:07:19.980 Not much has really changed here.
00:07:21.980 And now here is the impression of Mark Carney.
00:07:24.980 Back in January, when not a lot of people really had a strong opinion about him, he had 19% positive, 14% negative.
00:07:31.980 And as of today, he is 49% positive and only 29, 28% negative.
00:07:37.980 And then when we move on to Polyev, he's actually also not doing that bad considering how much the media has been attacking him and the fact that he lost the election.
00:07:46.980 Usually, if you're, you know, the loser of the election, a lot of people don't tend to hold out many good feelings for you.
00:07:51.980 In fact, his approval, net approval rating has been improving since the election, which demonstrates just how big the anti-Polyev propaganda effort was during the election.
00:08:02.980 Let's zoom in here so you can see it.
00:08:04.980 During the election, like late in the election, Abacus found 39% of people had a positive impression of him and 46% had a negative impression of him.
00:08:14.980 That is a pretty massive gap, a negative of seven during the election when you are trying to market yourself very positively.
00:08:23.980 And now he's at negative 43 and positive 39.
00:08:26.980 And so the gap has fallen to just negative four, which isn't too bad for a conservative leader, considering that typically you are considered the bad guy of Canadian politics.
00:08:37.980 The media is oriented against you. 0.71
00:08:39.980 They present you as one of those very dirty American like Canadian politicians. 0.94
00:08:44.980 And so people naturally will be like, well, I'm not conservative, so I hate whoever the conservative is.
00:08:49.980 And whereas you get a lot of conservatives on the other side who, you know, if Mark Carney's nice enough and he jokes around a little bit, even though they won't vote for the guy, they'll be like, he's nice.
00:08:59.980 He's nice. And maybe I'll even say his government's nice, even though in the same poll, they're saying I'm going to vote conservative.
00:09:04.980 This does actually happen a lot. This happened actually when Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee for president in 2024.
00:09:13.980 As soon as she was made the presidential nominee, her negative approval rating turned around and became positive because, well, she's no longer the vice president anymore. 0.96
00:09:22.980 She's the nominee for the president in 2024. 1.00
00:09:25.980 So there was this big reevaluation that people actually like her.
00:09:29.980 Well, the presidential election results spoke for themselves.
00:09:32.980 You know, hardcore Democrats would vote for her, but a lot. 0.99
00:09:35.980 But obviously Republicans vote Republican and independents split Republican really hard against her. 0.73
00:09:41.980 You know, people will say nice things about you.
00:09:43.980 But as they, you know, live with you, they'll say, like, oh, yeah, she's nice, but I'll never vote for her.
00:09:48.980 And so the reelectability of the liberals has jumped a lot.
00:09:52.980 And so that's been great for them.
00:09:55.980 But at the same time, we actually do have when you look at accessible voter pools, the conservatives are still doing pretty well in Canada.
00:10:02.980 And really, the only area that they're suffering in is Quebec, which is not surprising.
00:10:06.980 It's Quebec. The conservatives have never really done that well in Quebec.
00:10:09.980 And what I find slightly odd about the conservative strategy right now and what they need to change is it's so Quebec center centric.
00:10:19.980 The margin of loss in Quebec, the average seat that the conservatives lost in Quebec has a much wider margin of loss than a seat that they didn't win in Ontario or a seat that they didn't win in the Maritimes.
00:10:35.980 It's far easier to win the seats in the Maritimes and in Ontario and clean up the remaining ridings in Saskatchewan and Alberta and win some more in BC than it is to win in Quebec.
00:10:46.980 Stop running at the wall that is Quebec here, the conservatives.
00:10:50.980 The conservatives are going to win the ridings they already win in the in the province, regardless of what they do.
00:10:55.980 They mostly win border ridings with the United States or with English Canada, where people tend to be more free market.
00:11:02.980 They actually don't like supply management in those areas.
00:11:05.980 That's why Maxime Bernier used to be able to get elected very consistently in the bows as a conservative, even though he was anti supply management is because people in the bows tend to be anti supply management, too.
00:11:15.980 They're the more libertarian entrepreneur types in Quebec.
00:11:19.980 And so what we have, though, is the conservatives still not willing to say that we need to adjust supply management in order to sign a trade deal.
00:11:27.980 I think they should say it. Who cares if a few Quebec politicians are going to contemn you?
00:11:32.980 You're not winning in Quebec anyways.
00:11:34.980 But again, here is the chart of the current polling.
00:11:38.980 Again, think about this in the context of what I just showed you.
00:11:41.980 Mark Carney is considered very popular right now, a plus 21 net approval rating.
00:11:46.980 We have the government with a high approval rating right now when usually even the government had a lower approval rating than when Trudeau was around.
00:11:53.980 Trudeau would have a better approval rating than even his government did.
00:11:56.980 And now both of them are in the positives.
00:11:59.980 But we have right now the conservatives within one point of the liberals.
00:12:05.980 And that's not at all like that's not at all a fluke, because do you think the working class guy in Windsor suddenly wants to vote liberal now?
00:12:14.980 And anyone who was voting liberal before, they actually have a good chance potentially of bleeding off the NDP because Mark Carney wasn't the hyper progressive that Justin Trudeau was.
00:12:28.980 That's not saying that Mark Carney is going to be significantly better.
00:12:31.980 He still does a lot of virtue signaling. He just isn't gratuitous about it in a way where certain hyper progressives might think, well, this isn't the party I signed up for and then go vote for Don Davies MVP.
00:12:43.980 But what we see here is some decently positive numbers in B.C. The conservatives have 41 percent.
00:12:48.980 Alberta, obviously 60. Saskatchewan, Manitoba, 54.
00:12:52.980 Most of that strength is in Saskatchewan, to be fair. So it's very tight in Manitoba.
00:12:56.980 Ontario, conservatives 43 to 44. Quebec, this is why they need to stop trying.
00:13:02.980 They're at 19 percent. Atlantic Canada, 37, which is far better than what most pollsters put them at in Atlantic Canada in the last election.
00:13:09.980 Still doing very well with younger voters and they tend to be trailing with older voters.
00:13:14.980 And this thing is this is actually not much of a reversal.
00:13:17.980 The only big thing that's happened with the age brackets is that the NDPs collapsed with younger voters.
00:13:24.980 The conservatives actually have always usually been the middle aged voter party.
00:13:28.980 The young party was always the NDP for the longest time until Jagmeet Singh sank that party into the quicksand.
00:13:35.980 And then the older party, like 60 plus, that's actually always been the liberal party.
00:13:41.980 If you're in that demo, if you're above the age of 60 and you vote conservative, you're just the conservative voting portion of that group.
00:13:48.980 But disproportionately, that vote that group does vote liberal.
00:13:52.980 And it's because that demographic, you know, is usually receiving CPP benefits.
00:13:58.980 Disproportionately, they live a little bit more in the east.
00:14:01.980 You know, they've already owned their own home.
00:14:03.980 They usually live in safer neighborhoods.
00:14:05.980 And so naturally, a lot of the policy issues that the liberals have caused over the last 10 years hasn't reached that group as much.
00:14:13.980 So they are more willing to forgive policy failures or not even notice them.
00:14:17.980 If you live in the west and you're in that older demo, no doubt the conservatives are winning you overwhelmingly because you live where the policy failures are concentrated. 0.78
00:14:25.980 So even if you're retired, you still live in a province where you're constantly under attack, where it's constantly in the news.
00:14:33.980 The liberals are shutting down pipeline projects or saying no to things like the tech mine.
00:14:38.980 So you're not likely to fall for, you know, the progressive propaganda that, look, we have a new dental program.
00:14:44.980 That means we're doing a good job because you live in the region where we pay for all of it.
00:14:48.980 And you realize how much the liberals are squandering the economic powerhouse of the country.
00:14:53.980 But to go through this a little bit more here, we have actually an improvement with women for the conservative party. 0.99
00:15:00.980 And I think it's more so that post-election things are getting a little bit less polarized.
00:15:05.980 Women for the conservatives are 37 to the liberals 41 with the new Democrats grabbing 11 men.
00:15:11.980 The conservatives are leading by 42 compared to the liberals 40.
00:15:15.980 Not too bad.
00:15:16.980 And then we have, of course, you see here conservatives do well with high school or less and then college.
00:15:22.980 But then the liberals have been cleaning up with universities.
00:15:24.980 That's also why they do very well in urban areas. 0.99
00:15:27.980 And I always hate the idea when people put out this stupid misnomer. 0.98
00:15:31.980 Oh, it's because people vote liberal because they're more educated. 1.00
00:15:34.980 It's like maybe you vote liberal because you're overeducated.
00:15:39.980 Guys, I have a master's degree.
00:15:41.980 My master's degree mostly taught me that people who have master's degrees are insane, that they will. 1.00
00:15:47.980 There is a sort of type of person who simply is getting educated more.
00:15:52.980 They're taking more degrees because it's their personality, too.
00:15:56.980 They're not getting smarter.
00:15:57.980 And the thing is, I took a master's degree in public policy. 0.99
00:16:00.980 Policy people are crazy.
00:16:02.980 They'll get they'll see like some bloated piece of legislation and they'll say, well, you know, on page 70, it gets good.
00:16:08.980 It's like, why is it 70 pages at all?
00:16:10.980 Why aren't we passing legislation that's 10 pages?
00:16:13.980 But you get a lot of wonky people who are in the policy world who like policy detail and they think all the problems of the universe can be solved through more detail, more regulations, more committee meetings.
00:16:27.980 And that's just not like the conservative mind, what a conservative minded person believes.
00:16:31.980 And the thing is that that person who was predisposed to believing that we need more detail, we need more laws, we need more restrictions are also the type of people who are going to get that extra degree that they probably didn't need because they live in the world of credentialism.
00:16:44.980 Where, you know, in the policy, the policy they support, well, we should only be hiring people with a master's degree or better because that's good for, you know, it's good for government.
00:16:54.980 We need people with higher educations in order to run things more efficiently, even though that's not true at all.
00:16:58.980 But now I'm just rambling about education. Don't get a master's degree unless you really need it.
00:17:05.980 Anyway, so that should be it for me today, guys.
00:17:08.980 I think, again, right now, the story of Canadian politics is that people are giving the benefit of the doubt to Carney and the government.
00:17:15.980 At the same time, if you held an election, they're not going to vote for them because they wanted the more fulsome reform that conservatives represented.
00:17:23.980 At the same time, what I will say about the conservatives is that if they want to win next time, they need to run on an unmistakable reform platform.
00:17:33.980 Their platform needs to be audacious with the reforms that it's trying to push. Run on a 20% across the board tax cut.
00:17:42.980 Every bracket, corporate taxes, doesn't matter. Lower the amount of taxes that Canadians pay over four years by 20%.
00:17:49.980 And then next election, lower it by a little bit more and keep lowering it because we are living in a world where we could probably do without 40% of the tax revenue.
00:17:59.980 And we wouldn't have any of our lifestyles affected if you aren't living off of the government dole.
00:18:04.980 But anyways, so that should be it for me today, guys.
00:18:08.980 Again, like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment if you like the show.
00:18:12.980 And I will see you guys all next time.