The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Liberals and NDP crash in voter confidence

00:00:00.000 Right now and into the future, I'm going to keep banging the drum on the point that the Liberal Party and the NDP cannot win the 2025 election.

00:00:08.960 And you might be thinking, why? You're being really overconfident. There's still a year and a half before the next election. They could easily come back.

00:00:16.480 The media will spin the good news for the Liberals. They'll release some sort of propaganda campaign. They'll pivot on this or that policy, and they'll make a get-out-the-vote effort in order to tighten it back up.

00:00:26.260 Well, yes, the polls might tighten a little bit before the next election. When you look under the hood in these recent polls that have been coming out, the Liberal Party and the NDP have a massive confidence problem within their own base.

00:00:38.940 It's not just that the Conservatives are taking a 15-point lead over the Liberals. It's the fact that Liberal Party supporters and NDP supporters are unlikely to even show up in the next election.

00:00:49.840 There's all these people saying that, well, NDP voters might vote Liberal in order to try and stop the Conservatives.

00:00:56.260 Guys, voters are not that analytical. There's a reason that people vote for the Green Party, despite the fact that there's only two ridings they can ever win in.

00:01:04.620 It's because a lot of people just vote for what they like, even if that party's not going to win in their end.

00:01:08.900 Most people just happen to like the Conservatives, Liberals, or the NDP.

00:01:12.820 And these days, they really like the Conservatives, and they hate the Liberals and the NDP.

00:01:17.320 So here's what the new Albuquerque's data poll shows.

00:01:20.740 The Conservatives are at 40%, 15-point lead over the Liberals, 25, and the NDP has 20.

00:01:26.860 The Bloc is at 8, and obviously that's just in Quebec, so they're pretty much just going to maintain the amount of seats they have right now and pretty much just take them out of contention for the Liberals, since the Liberals are right now in second in Quebec.

00:01:38.720 But that's bad enough. But what's even worse, even worse than the Liberals' terrible fundraising numbers, is the regionals.

00:01:47.700 Now look at these right here.

00:01:49.200 In BC, the Conservatives are at 40%, with the NDP at 32% behind them because of the NDP provincial government.

00:01:57.320 That's horrible for the Liberals.

00:01:58.560 The Liberals should be either in first or second in BC if they want to win the election.

00:02:02.320 In Ontario, the Conservatives are at 43%, with the Liberals are only at 29%, and obviously that's just because the City of Toronto votes Liberal really hard.

00:02:11.400 The north and south of Ontario are going to go fully blue.

00:02:15.200 There's barely anything the Liberals can do to stop them.

00:02:18.340 In Quebec, yes, the Conservatives are only at 17 points, but the Bloc's leading with 35%, and the Liberals are at 30%.

00:02:25.500 That's another province. If the Liberals want to form a majority, they need to be beating the Bloc.

00:02:30.560 In Atlantic Canada, you have 43% for the Conservatives, 33% for the Liberals.

00:02:35.840 Atlantic Canada, as we knew in 2015, used to be a clean sweep for the Liberals.

00:02:40.420 I think in 2019, the Conservatives won like a single seat.

00:02:43.520 That is maybe not the most seat-rich area of the country, but if you're the Liberals and you want to form government,

00:02:49.340 you need to be doing well in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and in BC.

00:02:54.120 There's a reason that Abacus throws in this statistic, or this chart, into their polls,

00:03:00.480 showing that between BC, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are on average polling 42%,

00:03:06.820 and the Liberals only 27%.

00:03:08.640 And they do this because those are the three major provinces, basically the swing state-type provinces Canada has.

00:03:14.800 And when you're that far behind, when you're literally, you know, 15 points behind in the swing provinces,

00:03:22.480 that's death. That's death for your party.

00:03:24.720 But in a second, I'm going to get to the confidence polling,

00:03:27.160 and this is where it goes from bad to nightmarish for the Liberals.

00:03:30.900 But first, I just want to do a quick shameless plug and say that I, Wyatt Claypool,

00:03:35.480 am running for the Conservative Party of Canada's nomination for the Calgary Signal Hill riding.

00:03:40.460 If you live in this riding, except for the Bowness and Greenbrier areas,

00:03:45.320 because they're being removed when riding boundaries change in April,

00:03:48.360 because Alberta's getting a few more ridings, 1.00

00:03:50.320 if you live in this area, buy a Conservative Party membership and vote for me.

00:03:53.880 My website's in the description below, wyattclaypool.com.

00:03:57.320 Sign up to the email list if you live in the area,

00:03:58.940 or if you live around the riding but not in it,

00:04:01.140 you can sign up to be a volunteer, come door-knocking and whatnot with me.

00:04:04.360 We want actual blue Conservatives representing strong ridings like Signal Hill,

00:04:08.260 not wispy red Tories who were pro-lockdown five minutes ago and pro-Aaron O'Toole,

00:04:13.600 and now suddenly they're big poly of people,

00:04:15.360 even though to a certain extent they privately scorn him behind the scenes.

00:04:19.220 Anyways, getting back to it,

00:04:21.420 this poll result is the thing that should really have the Liberals and NDP,

00:04:26.260 you know, up late at night worrying.

00:04:28.580 So we have the Conservatives has a 74% certainty to vote for their party.

00:04:33.580 Same thing with the Bloc. 0.77

00:04:34.620 These are two parties that are doing strong in the areas,

00:04:37.560 like obviously the Bloc only runs in Quebec,

00:04:39.680 but these two parties have a very strong base of support.

00:04:43.780 The Liberals only have a 61% confidence rating with their supporters,

00:04:48.260 59% with the NDP.

00:04:50.740 When you're only a little bit over half of your supporters are certain to vote for you,

00:04:55.720 that's horrible,

00:04:57.180 because that means that the Liberals and the NDP,

00:04:59.480 they're going to have to spend money just making sure that their base shows up.

00:05:02.820 They cannot get new voters,

00:05:04.660 they cannot develop new support bases,

00:05:07.000 because they're going to have to spend their small budgets,

00:05:09.600 considering their fundraising so bad,

00:05:11.340 they're going to have to spend their relatively small budgets to the Conservatives,

00:05:14.520 just making sure that they can realize these 25% and 20% support numbers.

00:05:20.720 That's the biggest problem for the NDP over time, 0.96

00:05:22.840 is that their voter confidence sucks, 1.00

00:05:25.060 and their fundraising sucks. 0.99

00:05:26.620 And so they're having to spend money just trying to drive out the few people 0.97

00:05:29.720 who will actually vote for the NDP,

00:05:31.380 so they always end up underperforming their actual polling numbers.

00:05:34.760 The Liberals are now in that situation.

00:05:37.000 They could easily underperform that 25% in the polls,

00:05:41.300 because one, their budgeting is horrible,

00:05:43.760 and two, their voters think they're going to lose anyway,

00:05:46.280 so the Liberals are going to have to do crazy,

00:05:49.280 like crazy intense door-knocking efforts

00:05:51.780 in order to make sure the people that like them

00:05:54.340 will even bother showing up and casting a ballot,

00:05:56.800 because they think Polioff is already the Prime Minister, basically.

00:06:00.000 And that's where maybe Conservatives shouldn't be too overconfident.

00:06:02.960 You don't want to think,

00:06:04.060 I'm going to go on vacation during the election and not vote.

00:06:06.660 Definitely vote.

00:06:07.580 Definitely show up and do your duty.

00:06:09.060 Everyone should.

00:06:10.260 But this is where I don't think Conservatives need to be too concerned

00:06:13.220 about Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh

00:06:15.360 tinkering a little bit with the voting process rules.

00:06:17.660 It's all kind of a nothing burger.

00:06:19.400 Maybe there's going to be an extra day or two of voting.

00:06:21.920 Maybe it's going to be a little bit easier

00:06:23.500 to vote in different polling stations in your riding.

00:06:26.020 It's not going to amount to anything.

00:06:28.360 The Liberals cannot change any rules.

00:06:30.820 They cannot release any propaganda campaigns,

00:06:32.700 any of the stuff I've talked about,

00:06:34.160 in order to bring it back.

00:06:35.960 And when you've looked at the attacks they're making on Pure Poly

00:06:38.600 and how badly they've just fallen on their face,

00:06:41.700 they obviously don't know what to do communications-wise.

00:06:44.840 I'm not sure for any of you who are on X,

00:06:46.540 did you see that massive blow-up

00:06:47.940 a Liberal Party communications staffer had the other day?

00:06:50.860 Just freaking out, saying the most vulgar things possible,

00:06:53.300 because these people are flailing.

00:06:55.140 And every time people criticize them now,

00:06:56.580 they don't know what to say,

00:06:57.320 so they just get righteously indignant

00:06:59.220 and start freaking out and getting mad

00:07:00.900 and calling you terrible names

00:07:02.220 and using just vulgar terminology,

00:07:04.380 like vulgar to the point of being medical. 0.57

00:07:07.940 These people do not have their heads screwed on straight.

00:07:11.040 There's a reason why we have polls

00:07:12.440 like that old Angus Reid one that came out last week

00:07:14.640 that showed that the consumers might win 222 seats.

00:07:18.640 Another poll just came out from Main Street

00:07:20.760 that showed that they would win 220 seats.

00:07:23.860 These polling trends are not here

00:07:25.640 because polling firms are rigging it for the conservatives.

00:07:28.780 Polling firms, and this is why I trust most polling firms,

00:07:30.980 I don't like their policy polling.

00:07:32.640 They were, they'll question so badly

00:07:34.220 that the policy polling comes useless

00:07:35.860 and there's no way of actually proving

00:07:37.520 if it's accurate or not

00:07:38.560 because there's no voting day on these policies.

00:07:40.980 But generally the national numbers are accurate

00:07:43.320 because the polling firms specifically

00:07:45.480 are just demonstrating how good they are at polling

00:07:47.680 by doing this free national political polling

00:07:50.960 so that they can sell

00:07:52.020 their market research services to companies.

00:07:55.440 So whenever people, like whenever there's a poll result

00:07:57.560 that shows that the liberals

00:07:58.320 are doing a little bit better,

00:07:59.340 it's not because people are rigging it.

00:08:00.840 If anything, if they tried to rig it

00:08:02.580 and then it was shown that they were wrong,

00:08:03.880 nobody would hire them ever again.

00:08:05.980 Polling firms in Canada tend to be quite accurate

00:08:08.020 because there's not to a certain extent money

00:08:09.840 to pay them off to sweeten their polls a little bit

00:08:12.440 the way that there is in the United States.

00:08:14.460 It's like people in the United States,

00:08:16.020 like the Republicans and Democrats hire polling firms

00:08:18.460 to put out polls for them.

00:08:20.200 In Canada, nobody ever really pays for a polling firm.

00:08:22.700 They might pay for some internal polling,

00:08:24.440 but no one's going to try and like rig a poll. 0.99

00:08:26.500 You could just look like a fool for trying to do it. 0.99

00:08:29.100 But yeah, this really all demonstrates 0.99

00:08:31.380 and hopefully I don't end up rambling on too much here,

00:08:34.260 but confidence really matters.

00:08:36.520 Being able to prove that you believe you're going to win

00:08:39.660 is actually a very important thing to do in politics.

00:08:42.200 That's why, even though sometimes when I'm door knocking,

00:08:44.940 you ever once in a while get a voter who says,

00:08:47.520 well, I don't like how Paul Oyev

00:08:48.680 is criticizing the liberals so much

00:08:50.480 and he sometimes comes off as a little arrogant.

00:08:53.060 I don't think he actually does.

00:08:54.180 I think that's just the media spin of, 0.98

00:08:56.000 he's strident and arrogant.

00:08:57.740 It's because pure Oyev is coming off as confident

00:09:00.500 and he is coming off as sort of ascendant.

00:09:03.060 He's criticizing the liberals

00:09:04.360 to basically put down sort of the confidence in the liberals.

00:09:08.280 You need to do that.

00:09:09.160 One, he has to prove he's not like Aaron O'Toole

00:09:10.800 and some pansy who's going to betray conservative voters. 1.00

00:09:14.180 And two, he basically has to go after liberal party supporters

00:09:17.520 and say, your party's failing you.

00:09:19.940 Your party has done all this economic damage.

00:09:22.780 They've done all this societal divisional damage.

00:09:26.180 They've increased crime, all this stuff.

00:09:28.080 That's why Paul Oyev called out Toronto voters

00:09:29.960 for voting liberal,

00:09:31.560 because he has to kind of weaken that resolve

00:09:34.600 and confidence that the liberals

00:09:36.920 are the party of Torontonians.

00:09:38.720 He has to prove that they've actually been hurting you.

00:09:40.980 You have to actually wake up one day

00:09:42.920 and realize that you actually might need to vote

00:09:45.020 for a party that might actually serve your best interests,

00:09:47.280 which are lowering taxes,

00:09:49.020 making life more affordable,

00:09:50.620 reducing crime,

00:09:51.920 reducing drug use and all this stuff.

00:09:53.700 Yes, he might come off as kind of arrogant,

00:09:56.040 but confident people tend to run that risk

00:09:58.300 of seeming arrogant.

00:09:59.680 And party confidence,

00:10:00.920 this voter confidence I brought up is key.

00:10:03.720 The conservatives are at 74% and probably rising

00:10:06.460 because their own voters see that Paul Oyev

00:10:09.960 seems strong and confident.

00:10:11.480 If he was like Aaron O'Toole or Andrew Scheer

00:10:13.520 and he had the same personality,

00:10:15.360 the conservative vote would probably be around only 70,

00:10:18.380 maybe 64% confidence,

00:10:21.120 because they looked weak.

00:10:23.240 They looked like they could be pushed over

00:10:24.580 by Justin Trudeau,

00:10:25.560 even if voters completely agreed with them,

00:10:28.500 not as much O'Toole. 1.00

00:10:29.660 He sucked. 0.98

00:10:30.560 Both Andrew Scheer overall, 0.99

00:10:31.780 his policy was actually quite good,

00:10:33.340 but he never came off like the guy

00:10:35.120 who's going to be prime minister.

00:10:36.340 You have to act like you're going to be

00:10:38.920 the prime minister one day

00:10:39.940 or everyone's going to say,

00:10:41.180 well, that guy can't be prime minister.

00:10:42.520 He doesn't look like he's even confident

00:10:44.480 in the things he's saying right now.

00:10:46.820 Anyways, maybe that was a little bit too much rambling.

00:10:49.180 I apologize.

00:10:50.480 Anyways, in the description of the video below,

00:10:52.520 we have the GiveSend Go link

00:10:53.680 for our legal fundraiser.

00:10:55.080 We have a billionaire suing us

00:10:56.560 some developer from China.

00:10:58.460 He has no evidence we defamed him,

00:11:00.080 but he's throwing money at us

00:11:01.120 to try and get us to fake apologize to him.

00:11:03.580 We're not going to do that.

00:11:04.580 We don't get bullied.

00:11:05.640 But if you want to help contribute

00:11:06.860 to our legal fund,

00:11:07.700 it really helps us out.

00:11:08.660 We're easily winning this case.

00:11:10.500 My own lawyers have told me 1.00

00:11:11.760 that, yeah, they would be fools 0.99

00:11:13.320 to try and bring this to court 0.99

00:11:14.400 and they probably won't.

00:11:15.520 They're just throwing paperwork

00:11:16.540 at me at this point.

00:11:17.520 Our entire guest writers reporting on

00:11:19.840 that mentioned this guy

00:11:20.980 was all based on a Globe and Mail story

00:11:23.020 that came out almost two years before

00:11:24.940 that did a detailed breakdown

00:11:26.540 of all the things he was up to

00:11:27.820 in which he basically is confirmed

00:11:29.440 as all true,

00:11:30.060 but he just thinks it's still

00:11:31.080 depamatory to mention it. 0.99

00:11:33.120 Ridiculous. 0.82

00:11:33.620 But if you want to donate 0.91

00:11:34.600 to that GiveSend Go campaign,

00:11:36.120 it really helps me

00:11:36.780 in the National Telegraph vote.

00:11:38.440 And then also repeating myself again,

00:11:40.860 I, Wyatt Claypool,

00:11:41.900 am running in the Calgary Signal Hill riding.

00:11:43.700 So if you don't live in the,

00:11:45.160 if you live in the riding

00:11:46.000 and not in the Greenbrier or Bowness areas,

00:11:48.160 buy a membership, support me,

00:11:49.440 check out my website,

00:11:50.600 WyattClaypool.com

00:11:51.480 in the description below,

00:11:52.620 and I'll see you guys

00:11:53.460 later in another video.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 30, 2024

Liberals and NDP crash in voter confidence

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