The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 18, 2025


Liberals are heavily over polled & very WEAK!


Episode Stats


Length

14 minutes

Words per minute

173.3408

Word count

2,476

Sentence count

141

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A new poll from Angus Reid Institute proves that the Liberals are actually gaining ground in the polls. And it's not a rigged poll. It's a result of a massive Liberal response bias that is being magnified by a massive number of Liberal supporters taking the polls and not enough conservative ones.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I needed to make this video today because I just had the perfect example fall into my lap to prove my point that right now Mark Carney's Liberal Party is being severely overpulled because a lot of pollsters are not properly compensating for the massive Liberal response bias.
00:00:22.080 If you haven't heard me explain what a response bias is before, basically it's where supporters of a particular party become extremely likely to take a poll compared to supporters of other parties.
00:00:36.120 This can also happen in reverse, where one-party supporters are extremely unlikely to take a poll, which makes it look like they are way less popular than they really are.
00:00:46.260 Look at this poll result from the Angus Reid Institute, and a reminder that Angus Reid himself tends to be more of a conservative.
00:00:55.040 He's not doing this to hurt the conservatives. He has no ill will towards the conservatives.
00:00:59.660 I think that his sample is just taking way too many people from downtown Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, and not enough people who are farmers out in rural areas or who work trades jobs like electrician or plumber.
00:01:13.680 Look back here. Back in late December, and this is where everything started falling apart for Justin Trudeau, the Liberals dipped down from only being 21% in the polls to just 16%.
00:01:25.680 They were trailing Jagmeet Singh's NDP by 5 points, which should be impossible based on how crushingly incompetent Jagmeet Singh is.
00:01:35.900 And then, once Trudeau left, they popped from 16% to 29%. That's a 13% gain.
00:01:42.920 And then they went to 37%, and that is at the start of February, so they were at 29% in January, 37% in February, 37% at the start of March, and now they're at 42%, leading the conservatives by 5%.
00:01:57.900 Now, I'm going to say, it's not that because the Liberals are doing well now that I don't believe the poll.
00:02:04.380 I don't believe them when they say the Liberals were only at 16.
00:02:08.200 This is a response bias, the 16 for the Liberals and 21 for the NDP, as well as the 45 for the conservatives.
00:02:15.060 That's a response bias just as much as a 42-37 for the Liberals compared to the conservatives is a response bias.
00:02:23.940 And I have more stuff in this poll to prove my point here.
00:02:28.260 So, you know how Justin Trudeau was extremely unpopular?
00:02:33.160 Yeah, so we have a new poll out demonstrating, I have to pull it up on a different page here, but we have a new poll from Angus Reid from the same round that shows that right now, Justin Trudeau is almost at a positive approval rating.
00:02:49.940 Look at this.
00:02:50.660 I'm going to bring it up on screen in just a second here.
00:02:53.940 Justin Trudeau, according to Angus Reid, has his disapproval fall by 25% after leaving office and his approval gain by 25%, which is not usually a one-to-one transfer because a lot of people go from disapproving to being neutral before they start approving of someone if they're truly actually improving their reputation.
00:03:14.380 What we have here is just a lot of federal liberal supporters suddenly taking the polls, and that is what is causing Trudeau's approval rating to suddenly pop back up.
00:03:26.700 Do Canadians suddenly like Trudeau?
00:03:29.040 Are 47% of people actually happy with Trudeau and only 49% disapproving?
00:03:33.980 Remember, this used to be a rating of 22% of people who liked him to 74% of people who didn't like him.
00:03:41.460 That is insane.
00:03:43.540 That's never happened.
00:03:44.980 I don't think I have to tell you that I've never seen a politician actually gain back that much approval.
00:03:52.100 We are in a liberal honeymoon right now with pollsters like Angus Reid, like Nanos, like Leger, especially like ECOS, not compensating for the fact that a lot of lefties are taking their polls and not a lot of people on the right.
00:04:06.740 But, wait just a second, even in this Angus Reid poll, I can prove to you how vulnerable the liberals are, even in a poll where they are leading the conservatives supposedly by five points.
00:04:19.780 Again, it's not a rigged poll, it's just not a very well done poll.
00:04:23.920 Before I get into this next part, guys, just remember to like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment.
00:04:29.480 I almost always forget to do that at the start.
00:04:31.900 Now we're in like the middle, so if you're still watching and you want more content on the polls, breaking how the stuff goes down, make sure you subscribe.
00:04:39.740 I'm not even like a polling expert, a guy who makes his own models.
00:04:43.100 I'll leave that to the Great Canadian Bagel and Sheree Attiste and Brian Berguet and 338 Canada.
00:04:48.960 They can do all the modeling.
00:04:50.520 But I, as somebody who can just read a basic study and who can read a poll, can show you why all this stuff doesn't make any sense.
00:04:57.540 Let's go back to the polls of who is actually committed to voting between all of the parties.
00:05:05.420 Look at this.
00:05:06.580 This should be very startling for the liberals that even in a poll like this, they are not rated very strongly with their own supporters.
00:05:15.260 So this is a poll of how likely you are to vote.
00:05:18.440 Dark red is not committed at all.
00:05:20.540 Light red is basically not very committed, like I might show up if I have the time.
00:05:24.780 Blue, light blue is fairly committed, and dark blue is very committed.
00:05:29.060 We'll definitely stick it out and vote in the next election.
00:05:32.140 Look here.
00:05:33.140 Even in this poll where the conservatives are behind, what you can see in the conservative sample is that conservatives are very sure of who they're voting for.
00:05:41.520 And this is my point I've made in other videos, where it's mostly middle-aged, working-class men who are really going to turn out for the conservatives and are not considering voting for another party.
00:05:54.600 Whereas what the liberals have mostly gained with, since they swapped out Trudeau, is with upper-middle-class women living in suburban and urban areas.
00:06:04.160 But look at here, 66% of conservatives are very likely to be voting conservative in the next election.
00:06:12.880 They are extremely committed.
00:06:14.800 24% are fairly committed, 7% are not that committed, and 3% are probably not going to vote.
00:06:21.240 Now we should go to the liberals.
00:06:22.760 3% are probably not going to vote.
00:06:24.320 It's pretty consistent among the parties that a lot of people are not, like, you know, there's a very small amount of people who are truly not going to vote who will still take a poll.
00:06:31.480 10% of liberals are not sure they're really going to be voting, are fairly uncommitted.
00:06:37.960 38% are fairly committed, and only 49% of people are very committed to voting.
00:06:43.640 That is 49 to 66.
00:06:47.600 So that is, what is that, 57% gap between the conservative committed voters, very committed voters, and the liberals.
00:06:55.940 This is the problem.
00:06:57.460 And then the NDP are also subject to change.
00:06:59.540 You could say that benefits the liberals because they might swing towards the liberals.
00:07:03.800 But even that, that is actually not true that NDP voters then go to the next most right or most left party.
00:07:11.460 NDP voters don't just go green or they go liberal.
00:07:13.920 Many NDP voters are these private sector union men and women who are tired of the way that the left-wing parties tend to disrespect people who actually work real jobs, you know, who work on construction sites, who are working in trades.
00:07:29.820 They don't like how the liberals and the NDP have become the party of white-collar government service workers.
00:07:36.540 And so NDP voters who end up defecting are equally as likely to go towards the conservatives as they are towards the liberals or the greens.
00:07:45.820 So this is where I'm saying that even in a poll where the conservatives are behind, you can literally see the strength of the conservatives still there.
00:07:56.980 We are simply looking at polls where there was way more default liberals polled than there were default conservatives.
00:08:04.280 This is just how sampling works in general.
00:08:07.780 You can't poll, if you poll 100,000 people, but they all live in downtown urban areas, it doesn't matter how big your sample is, you're not going to get a real national view of what's happening in Canada.
00:08:21.640 In theory, then, you could also only poll 500 people.
00:08:24.620 And you could have an extremely accurate poll because you have the right amount of people with just a high school diploma, right amount of people with a trades degree, bachelor's degree, master's degree, PhD, you have the right people in the different age brackets and the right different income brackets.
00:08:41.640 And then you can weight the groups differently based on how they normally turn out to vote.
00:08:46.360 When I say turnout, I'm talking about, you know, women tend to turn out a little bit more than men.
00:08:51.500 I'm not sure about that this election because there are so many, especially younger men, who are going to be showing up for the conservatives because they just don't like how the liberals tend to be the party of radical feminists, which is also why a lot of married women are not going to be voting liberal.
00:09:06.900 That's the funny thing.
00:09:08.260 Women, on average, tend to be more liberal than men.
00:09:11.880 But married women are more conservative than men in general.
00:09:15.580 In fact, married women tend to be the most socially conservative voters compared to everyone else. 0.98
00:09:21.580 But the women category tends to be kind of thrown off because single women never married tends to be the most liberal demographic in the country, especially young single women never married.
00:09:33.600 So, yeah, this is going to be going into demographic theory over a little bit too much, but it doesn't really matter.
00:09:39.740 I think you guys get my point.
00:09:41.260 Maybe I can even pull up the ECOS poll here if you guys are interested in seeing that again.
00:09:46.860 The ECOS poll was utterly ridiculous, if you remember.
00:09:50.320 It was Frank Graves saying that somehow the liberals are now above 50% across the country.
00:09:57.040 And what I find really sad is how much the liberals are willing to buy into polls like that.
00:10:02.300 If you have to buy a poll like that, I think that you just aren't serious anymore and you're willing to believe things just because it benefits you to believe it at the moment.
00:10:12.140 Can I find ECOS here?
00:10:14.780 Can I?
00:10:15.340 Oh, there we go.
00:10:16.360 I'm going to bring this up on screen.
00:10:18.120 This is an actual poll that people were claiming to be solid.
00:10:22.700 Look at this.
00:10:24.500 50% liberal.
00:10:26.220 Sorry, I'm bouncing the table there.
00:10:28.060 But 50% liberal to 32% conservative, 8% NDP, 5% block.
00:10:36.600 I don't know why the block would be falling 3%.
00:10:39.400 Blanchet has not done anything to embarrass himself.
00:10:42.200 And if anything, separatist sentiments are actually up and come back right now.
00:10:45.760 But apparently the block is falling apart and the PPC is still at 3%.
00:10:49.680 The PPC is polling better in ECOS than anywhere else, which demonstrates the fact that I think that people like Frank Graves and ECOS are just making up their polls.
00:10:59.760 Most pollsters who are doing a bad job right now are just doing a bad job right now.
00:11:04.820 I think Frank Graves and ECOS are fully making stuff up because when you look at their samples and their regionals, it makes no sense.
00:11:11.600 The PPC will be at like 10% in Alberta.
00:11:13.960 They are not scoring 10% in Alberta.
00:11:16.980 How do I know?
00:11:17.700 We've had by-elections in Alberta and Manitoba and BC.
00:11:22.820 And the PPC has fallen hard on their faces.
00:11:25.860 By the way, I just want to bring this up because I found it annoying.
00:11:29.500 When I see PPC guys still running around saying,
00:11:32.160 We're the pure party, so you guys better vote for us because we're, in theory, better people than the conservatives or whatever.
00:11:38.640 This was a very, like, I think just sort of like very demonstrative thing that a PPC candidate said.
00:11:46.980 He says, the PPC represents the Canadian mainstream of the future.
00:11:51.320 We are not a fringe group or whatever.
00:11:54.340 He didn't really finish that sentence properly.
00:11:56.340 But I naturally agree with what I said above, that it feels like he used the term mainstream of the future to justify why the PPC is also not going to try in this upcoming federal election, but will keep demanding donor money from its donors.
00:12:11.360 And or keep demanding money from its donors.
00:12:14.540 I find the PPC obnoxious, not because they're splitting the vote or anything.
00:12:19.720 I don't care about splitting the vote.
00:12:21.760 I care when a party is taking donor money and they aren't even trying.
00:12:26.980 Because I consider that legalized theft.
00:12:29.880 That you're going to take in millions of dollars from PPC donors every year, and you're not even going to try and buy elections.
00:12:37.620 You're not even going to try in a federal race.
00:12:40.140 That's an insult to politics and democracy in general.
00:12:43.200 When people are willing to give you their hard-earned dollars, and Bernier and his team just eat it all up, paying themselves massive salaries, just to barely even show up when there's a by-election going on.
00:12:55.120 Hit a couple doors, make it look good, and then go back to Florida.
00:12:58.860 I have no time for crap like that.
00:13:01.620 Anyways.
00:13:02.840 Well, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:13:04.800 Hopefully you didn't find this video too rambly.
00:13:06.900 But when I saw that Angus Reid poll, and I especially saw their polling of Justin Trudeau's approval rating, I needed to say something, because that's ridiculous.
00:13:16.380 Not a chance is Justin Trudeau suddenly almost at par on his net approval rating.
00:13:22.340 No chance did the Liberals somehow go from 16% to 42%.
00:13:27.720 It was probably that they were never at 16 in the first place, and they were never at 42 now.
00:13:32.280 They were probably always around the mid-20s, and now they might be at the low 30s.
00:13:37.700 They're not in the low 40s.
00:13:39.860 They have not earned it at all.
00:13:41.380 In fact, do you realize how little people actually pay attention to the news?
00:13:46.040 If you poll Canadians right now who don't watch the news, most of them probably don't even know that Justin Trudeau has been replaced.
00:13:52.800 So the idea that the news cycle is causing polls to go from down there to up here is patently absurd.
00:14:00.860 It's not how public opinion works.
00:14:03.820 But anyways, so make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment.
00:14:08.720 What do you think about everything that's been going on these days?
00:14:11.800 And you'll see me in another video sometime in the future.
00:14:16.520 See you guys later.