A new poll from Angus Reid Institute proves that the Liberals are actually gaining ground in the polls. And it's not a rigged poll. It's a result of a massive Liberal response bias that is being magnified by a massive number of Liberal supporters taking the polls and not enough conservative ones.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I needed to make this video today because I just had the perfect example fall into my lap to prove my point that right now Mark Carney's Liberal Party is being severely overpulled because a lot of pollsters are not properly compensating for the massive Liberal response bias.
00:00:22.080If you haven't heard me explain what a response bias is before, basically it's where supporters of a particular party become extremely likely to take a poll compared to supporters of other parties.
00:00:36.120This can also happen in reverse, where one-party supporters are extremely unlikely to take a poll, which makes it look like they are way less popular than they really are.
00:00:46.260Look at this poll result from the Angus Reid Institute, and a reminder that Angus Reid himself tends to be more of a conservative.
00:00:55.040He's not doing this to hurt the conservatives. He has no ill will towards the conservatives.
00:00:59.660I think that his sample is just taking way too many people from downtown Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, and not enough people who are farmers out in rural areas or who work trades jobs like electrician or plumber.
00:01:13.680Look back here. Back in late December, and this is where everything started falling apart for Justin Trudeau, the Liberals dipped down from only being 21% in the polls to just 16%.
00:01:25.680They were trailing Jagmeet Singh's NDP by 5 points, which should be impossible based on how crushingly incompetent Jagmeet Singh is.
00:01:35.900And then, once Trudeau left, they popped from 16% to 29%. That's a 13% gain.
00:01:42.920And then they went to 37%, and that is at the start of February, so they were at 29% in January, 37% in February, 37% at the start of March, and now they're at 42%, leading the conservatives by 5%.
00:01:57.900Now, I'm going to say, it's not that because the Liberals are doing well now that I don't believe the poll.
00:02:04.380I don't believe them when they say the Liberals were only at 16.
00:02:08.200This is a response bias, the 16 for the Liberals and 21 for the NDP, as well as the 45 for the conservatives.
00:02:15.060That's a response bias just as much as a 42-37 for the Liberals compared to the conservatives is a response bias.
00:02:23.940And I have more stuff in this poll to prove my point here.
00:02:28.260So, you know how Justin Trudeau was extremely unpopular?
00:02:33.160Yeah, so we have a new poll out demonstrating, I have to pull it up on a different page here, but we have a new poll from Angus Reid from the same round that shows that right now, Justin Trudeau is almost at a positive approval rating.
00:02:50.660I'm going to bring it up on screen in just a second here.
00:02:53.940Justin Trudeau, according to Angus Reid, has his disapproval fall by 25% after leaving office and his approval gain by 25%, which is not usually a one-to-one transfer because a lot of people go from disapproving to being neutral before they start approving of someone if they're truly actually improving their reputation.
00:03:14.380What we have here is just a lot of federal liberal supporters suddenly taking the polls, and that is what is causing Trudeau's approval rating to suddenly pop back up.
00:03:44.980I don't think I have to tell you that I've never seen a politician actually gain back that much approval.
00:03:52.100We are in a liberal honeymoon right now with pollsters like Angus Reid, like Nanos, like Leger, especially like ECOS, not compensating for the fact that a lot of lefties are taking their polls and not a lot of people on the right.
00:04:06.740But, wait just a second, even in this Angus Reid poll, I can prove to you how vulnerable the liberals are, even in a poll where they are leading the conservatives supposedly by five points.
00:04:19.780Again, it's not a rigged poll, it's just not a very well done poll.
00:04:23.920Before I get into this next part, guys, just remember to like this video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment.
00:04:29.480I almost always forget to do that at the start.
00:04:31.900Now we're in like the middle, so if you're still watching and you want more content on the polls, breaking how the stuff goes down, make sure you subscribe.
00:04:39.740I'm not even like a polling expert, a guy who makes his own models.
00:04:43.100I'll leave that to the Great Canadian Bagel and Sheree Attiste and Brian Berguet and 338 Canada.
00:05:33.140Even in this poll where the conservatives are behind, what you can see in the conservative sample is that conservatives are very sure of who they're voting for.
00:05:41.520And this is my point I've made in other videos, where it's mostly middle-aged, working-class men who are really going to turn out for the conservatives and are not considering voting for another party.
00:05:54.600Whereas what the liberals have mostly gained with, since they swapped out Trudeau, is with upper-middle-class women living in suburban and urban areas.
00:06:04.160But look at here, 66% of conservatives are very likely to be voting conservative in the next election.
00:06:24.320It's pretty consistent among the parties that a lot of people are not, like, you know, there's a very small amount of people who are truly not going to vote who will still take a poll.
00:06:31.48010% of liberals are not sure they're really going to be voting, are fairly uncommitted.
00:06:37.96038% are fairly committed, and only 49% of people are very committed to voting.
00:06:57.460And then the NDP are also subject to change.
00:06:59.540You could say that benefits the liberals because they might swing towards the liberals.
00:07:03.800But even that, that is actually not true that NDP voters then go to the next most right or most left party.
00:07:11.460NDP voters don't just go green or they go liberal.
00:07:13.920Many NDP voters are these private sector union men and women who are tired of the way that the left-wing parties tend to disrespect people who actually work real jobs, you know, who work on construction sites, who are working in trades.
00:07:29.820They don't like how the liberals and the NDP have become the party of white-collar government service workers.
00:07:36.540And so NDP voters who end up defecting are equally as likely to go towards the conservatives as they are towards the liberals or the greens.
00:07:45.820So this is where I'm saying that even in a poll where the conservatives are behind, you can literally see the strength of the conservatives still there.
00:07:56.980We are simply looking at polls where there was way more default liberals polled than there were default conservatives.
00:08:04.280This is just how sampling works in general.
00:08:07.780You can't poll, if you poll 100,000 people, but they all live in downtown urban areas, it doesn't matter how big your sample is, you're not going to get a real national view of what's happening in Canada.
00:08:21.640In theory, then, you could also only poll 500 people.
00:08:24.620And you could have an extremely accurate poll because you have the right amount of people with just a high school diploma, right amount of people with a trades degree, bachelor's degree, master's degree, PhD, you have the right people in the different age brackets and the right different income brackets.
00:08:41.640And then you can weight the groups differently based on how they normally turn out to vote.
00:08:46.360When I say turnout, I'm talking about, you know, women tend to turn out a little bit more than men.
00:08:51.500I'm not sure about that this election because there are so many, especially younger men, who are going to be showing up for the conservatives because they just don't like how the liberals tend to be the party of radical feminists, which is also why a lot of married women are not going to be voting liberal.
00:09:08.260Women, on average, tend to be more liberal than men.
00:09:11.880But married women are more conservative than men in general.
00:09:15.580In fact, married women tend to be the most socially conservative voters compared to everyone else.
00:09:21.580But the women category tends to be kind of thrown off because single women never married tends to be the most liberal demographic in the country, especially young single women never married.
00:09:33.600So, yeah, this is going to be going into demographic theory over a little bit too much, but it doesn't really matter.
00:09:41.260Maybe I can even pull up the ECOS poll here if you guys are interested in seeing that again.
00:09:46.860The ECOS poll was utterly ridiculous, if you remember.
00:09:50.320It was Frank Graves saying that somehow the liberals are now above 50% across the country.
00:09:57.040And what I find really sad is how much the liberals are willing to buy into polls like that.
00:10:02.300If you have to buy a poll like that, I think that you just aren't serious anymore and you're willing to believe things just because it benefits you to believe it at the moment.
00:10:28.060But 50% liberal to 32% conservative, 8% NDP, 5% block.
00:10:36.600I don't know why the block would be falling 3%.
00:10:39.400Blanchet has not done anything to embarrass himself.
00:10:42.200And if anything, separatist sentiments are actually up and come back right now.
00:10:45.760But apparently the block is falling apart and the PPC is still at 3%.
00:10:49.680The PPC is polling better in ECOS than anywhere else, which demonstrates the fact that I think that people like Frank Graves and ECOS are just making up their polls.
00:10:59.760Most pollsters who are doing a bad job right now are just doing a bad job right now.
00:11:04.820I think Frank Graves and ECOS are fully making stuff up because when you look at their samples and their regionals, it makes no sense.
00:11:11.600The PPC will be at like 10% in Alberta.
00:11:17.700We've had by-elections in Alberta and Manitoba and BC.
00:11:22.820And the PPC has fallen hard on their faces.
00:11:25.860By the way, I just want to bring this up because I found it annoying.
00:11:29.500When I see PPC guys still running around saying,
00:11:32.160We're the pure party, so you guys better vote for us because we're, in theory, better people than the conservatives or whatever.
00:11:38.640This was a very, like, I think just sort of like very demonstrative thing that a PPC candidate said.
00:11:46.980He says, the PPC represents the Canadian mainstream of the future.
00:11:51.320We are not a fringe group or whatever.
00:11:54.340He didn't really finish that sentence properly.
00:11:56.340But I naturally agree with what I said above, that it feels like he used the term mainstream of the future to justify why the PPC is also not going to try in this upcoming federal election, but will keep demanding donor money from its donors.
00:12:11.360And or keep demanding money from its donors.
00:12:14.540I find the PPC obnoxious, not because they're splitting the vote or anything.
00:12:19.720I don't care about splitting the vote.
00:12:21.760I care when a party is taking donor money and they aren't even trying.
00:12:26.980Because I consider that legalized theft.
00:12:29.880That you're going to take in millions of dollars from PPC donors every year, and you're not even going to try and buy elections.
00:12:37.620You're not even going to try in a federal race.
00:12:40.140That's an insult to politics and democracy in general.
00:12:43.200When people are willing to give you their hard-earned dollars, and Bernier and his team just eat it all up, paying themselves massive salaries, just to barely even show up when there's a by-election going on.
00:12:55.120Hit a couple doors, make it look good, and then go back to Florida.
00:13:02.840Well, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:13:04.800Hopefully you didn't find this video too rambly.
00:13:06.900But when I saw that Angus Reid poll, and I especially saw their polling of Justin Trudeau's approval rating, I needed to say something, because that's ridiculous.
00:13:16.380Not a chance is Justin Trudeau suddenly almost at par on his net approval rating.
00:13:22.340No chance did the Liberals somehow go from 16% to 42%.
00:13:27.720It was probably that they were never at 16 in the first place, and they were never at 42 now.
00:13:32.280They were probably always around the mid-20s, and now they might be at the low 30s.