The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Liberals behind Conservatives by 26% in new poll! No Carney Comeback

00:00:00.160 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. One important lesson to learn in Canadian politics is that

00:00:06.900 while things do change, they change rather slowly. And that's a lesson I don't think the

00:00:12.640 Liberal Party of Canada has learned, because they started this new Liberal leadership race

00:00:17.840 less than a year away from the next federal election, and they expected to change the

00:00:22.940 electoral landscape of the country before they get absolutely crushed sometime in May,

00:00:28.620 or maybe October if they can really draw this thing out. And there has been a lot of different

00:00:34.680 polling trends coming up from the different national pollsters, and I think one of them

00:00:39.860 is just lying at this point. So I showed you this poll the other day from ECOS, which is run by Frank

00:00:47.040 Graves, that showed that the conservative lead had narrowed to just 11 points. Now, that's pretty

00:00:54.100 crazy, because ECOS themselves showed the conservatives with a 25-point lead in December.

00:01:01.420 I'm sorry, but if you observe politics, especially in Canada for long enough, you know that polls do

00:01:07.800 not swing by 14 points in less than a month. So we've been seeing three different polling trends.

00:01:15.340 That's the one, the ECOS one, that I just think is entirely fake. It's not that it's a faked poll,

00:01:20.920 but Frank Graves, when he saw that result, should have known it wasn't real and that he needed to

00:01:26.500 do some more surveys. But the other two are fairly realistic, and I think that it's probably the result

00:01:33.520 in between these two that is the real one. So Main Street research, as we talked about the other day

00:01:39.860 as well, showed that the liberals, after Trudeau announced that he will be resigning as prime

00:01:44.400 minister sometime in March, and either being replaced likely by Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland,

00:01:49.680 that the liberals had bumped up from around 20, 21 up to 26, a five-point gain in the aftermath of

00:01:57.120 probably some liberal supporters being less depressed and now willing to say they're voting

00:02:01.580 liberal again, not that they should. But now there is a new poll out from Abacus Data that's taken more

00:02:07.880 time than these other pollsters to put out their poll that actually shows that nothing's changed and

00:02:13.240 still nobody likes the liberal brand. I think probably reality is in some place between Abacus

00:02:20.420 and Main Street, but I want to break some of these results down with you because Abacus shows the

00:02:25.360 conservatives are still leading by 26 points. By the way, Main Street showed that the conservatives

00:02:30.980 were still leading by 18 points, so that 5% bump didn't even exactly help the liberals much.

00:02:35.700 But before we get into the new Abacus results, and before I have to make fun of Frank Gravesmore,

00:02:41.600 make sure you like this video, subscribe to the channel. We're trying to get to 100,000 subscribers

00:02:46.720 by mid-December, and you know, share it with a friend, do all that great stuff, really helps me out.

00:02:53.060 But here are the regionals in the Abacus Data poll. Again, the overall lead for the conservatives in this

00:03:00.260 poll was 25%, but then we also see, or I think 26%, but we also see a massive lead for the

00:03:07.340 conservatives in provinces like British Columbia, getting 50% of the vote there. In Saskatchewan and

00:03:13.260 Manitoba, 58%. While it's obvious that Saskatchewan is a conservative province with a 58% result in that

00:03:21.840 collection of provinces, that probably means the conservatives can win seats in everywhere,

00:03:26.840 probably except northern Manitoba and Winnipeg. And in Ontario, like BC, they're at 50%. In Atlantic

00:03:33.680 Canada, 53%. This would result, and I don't probably have to tell you this, in the Liberal Party

00:03:39.540 getting absolutely stomped. I saw that Sheree Attiste, in fact, actually served, like put these 0.99

00:03:45.900 poll results, the ECOS one and the Abacus Data one, in his poll model. In the ECOS poll, if he put that

00:03:52.980 into his model, the conservatives would actually only win 166 seats, which would only be a minority

00:03:58.880 government, and the liberals would get something like 117, 120 seats. Again, I think that's complete

00:04:05.480 garbage. In the Abacus one, it's probably a little too hawkish for the conservatives, because Sheree Attiste 0.99

00:04:11.620 in his model shows that the conservatives would win like 240 seats, 230 seats, and the liberals would only

00:04:18.540 get like nine. I think the liberals will probably stay an official party. But yeah, it's looking

00:04:25.000 really bad for them. Here are the demographic results. And this is what's showing the conservative

00:04:30.120 strength. They are winning people between the ages of 18 to 44 by a pretty wide margin. Voters that in

00:04:38.140 theory should be voting NDP, and less than a year ago, it actually used to be a pretty tough knife

00:04:43.720 fight between Singh's NDP and Polyev's conservatives on who were going to win the Zoomer demographic of

00:04:49.960 18 to 29-year-old voters. But now I want to highlight another result that I find absolutely

00:04:56.400 hilarious, and that is what people think of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and what people think

00:05:04.300 of President-elect Donald Trump, who is being inaugurated tomorrow. So this is Justin Trudeau's

00:05:10.400 current approval rating. He has people, in terms of his impression, 64% of people have a negative

00:05:18.540 impression of Justin Trudeau. Only 19% of people, 1% less than are even voting liberal, have a positive

00:05:26.380 impression of Justin Trudeau. That is absolutely abysmal. And in fact, it is lower than people's

00:05:34.420 impression of Donald Trump. Check this out. They don't tend to test his approval rating as much in

00:05:40.220 Canada. Well, look at this. Donald Trump, while yes, because it's kind of a default thing in Canada

00:05:47.640 that you should dislike Donald Trump because he is the evil orange man. He's absolutely fine in my 0.98

00:05:53.840 mind. His policies are pretty general conservative policies. But his approval rating, even now, is

00:05:59.840 higher than Justin Trudeau's. Despite the tariff threats, he is at a 21% approval rating and only has

00:06:05.720 62% of people who disapprove of him. Remember, Justin Trudeau is at 64%. That is absolutely wild.

00:06:14.800 And yeah, I find that actually stands to reason at this point, because even if people dislike Trump

00:06:21.420 in Canada because of the breathlessly anti-Trump coverage in the media, there is a certain demographic

00:06:27.260 of people who, even if they don't like him, can respect him. And I think that that is what you would

00:06:31.960 probably find if you polled people on adjectives they would associate with Trump, that he is strong,

00:06:37.240 he's a tough guy. And the problem with Trudeau is he's weak, he's petty, he's whiny. And that's why 0.86

00:06:43.140 the whole Team Canada thing that Justin Trudeau is doing right now is just so pathetic. Is that really 0.97

00:06:48.920 you're going to be the man holding together Team Canada, meeting with all the premiers? You're barely

00:06:54.400 even the prime minister at this point, man. But now I got to get back to ECOS polling, because when they put

00:07:01.160 out polls and people criticize them saying, no way the liberals are only down 11% on the

00:07:07.560 conservatives, people will then say, well, just because you don't like the poll doesn't mean it's

00:07:12.260 bad. Oh, conservatives mad because now the liberals are experiencing Mark Carney momentum. It's

00:07:20.160 Carney-mentum out there. Nobody knows who Mark Carney is. Only 23% of people can identify him when they

00:07:27.780 are shown a picture. Nobody knows who this guy is. No way the liberals recovered 14% between the swing

00:07:35.340 between them and the conservatives in less than a month. And I think this tweet really should flavor

00:07:41.080 how we consume all Frank Graves' ECOS polls. While this poll, this post was deleted, I think it's a good

00:07:48.400 insight into what Frank Graves thinks. Now, obviously, this is a different profile picture, because this is

00:07:53.480 something he tweeted, as you can see, back in March of 2022. Yeah, March 15th of 2022. He said,

00:08:03.040 a real conservative option is a healthy counterbalance and a healthy democracy.

00:08:07.440 Pierre Polyev is an acolyte of an authoritarian populism. This is never healthy. You are on notice,

00:08:14.380 going to make sure you are never going to leave my country. I don't make idle threats.

00:08:18.500 Now, should I believe it when nothing has really changed that much? While, yes, Trudeau has announced

00:08:26.240 he's resigning, which is a significant change. Has the Liberal Party or government changed much?

00:08:32.600 Are the leadership candidates of the Liberal Party running on anything significantly different

00:08:36.620 than what Trudeau is already doing? While, yes, Carney and Freeland are saying they're going to get rid of

00:08:41.660 the carbon tax, they're going to replace it with probably some even more intense industrial carbon tax.

00:08:47.160 They'll have some other price on carbon emissions at some point. At least they'll cancel it for now

00:08:54.280 and say, well, Donald Trump is making life so hard. We need to get rid of the carbon tax. Now,

00:08:59.020 they'll bring it back somehow. But nothing really has changed. And you can even see it in Abacus

00:09:03.900 Data's poll of government approval, if I can find it here, because people do not think that Canada is

00:09:11.700 doing a good job. The Canadian government is doing well. They don't have it here. But you can trust me that

00:09:16.840 whenever Abacus Data does a poll of what people think of the current government, it basically is

00:09:21.380 as negative as Justin Trudeau's approval rating. Here's a good one, people's top issues.

00:09:28.860 67% of people, their top issue was the cost of living, 40% health care, 38% housing affordability

00:09:36.080 and accessibility, 37% the economy, 28% immigration, and 26% Donald Trump administration. And that one,

00:09:43.620 you could say probably is a bit of a 50-50 issue between the liberals and conservatives in terms

00:09:48.180 of what people's concerns are. Either the conservatives are too friendly to Trump, which

00:09:52.120 I don't even know what that means, or Justin Trudeau's too weak and we need Polyev as our leader

00:09:57.080 when Trump's the president. But all of these top issues are pro-conservative issues. All of these

00:10:03.080 issues favor the conservative party in terms of who's going to be able to campaign most effectively on

00:10:08.780 them. And that's why when I see Frank Graves frankly farred out a result that says 11 points,

00:10:17.120 a narrowing to just 11 point lead for the conservatives, I don't trust this guy because

00:10:23.080 that's not how politics works. That's not how public opinion works. It takes people a while to

00:10:29.120 know that significant events have even occurred because people are not glued to the news. And so

00:10:34.340 it seems like Frank has been perfectly fine with letting his samples get corrupted with liberal

00:10:40.200 or very, very nervous middle-class partisans who don't like when the conservatives say something

00:10:45.720 conservative. And so every time Polyev has a controversy in the media that actually makes

00:10:50.260 most people like him more, his polling goes down in Frank Graves' poll. It seems like everything

00:10:56.940 tends to be the exact way in terms of how his results come out. Everything just tends to track

00:11:02.300 exactly with Frank Graves' personal politics. He wants Trudeau out in December so the conservatives

00:11:08.740 have a big lead. He wants there to be a comeback narrative for Mark Carney or Christy Freeland.

00:11:13.760 Suddenly everything's narrowing, even though not enough time has passed for anyone to digest

00:11:19.320 Trudeau leaving office or whether or not they actually see Carney and Freeland as real new options.

00:11:26.180 No, everything just suddenly narrows. You are not going to see, unless the conservatives do something

00:11:31.520 monumentally stupid, and I do not see that happening, they're not going to fall below 40%. He had them 1.00

00:11:36.820 at 39%. No way when every other pollster consistently has them at least at 43, up to 47% in fact.

00:11:45.700 So yeah, I don't trust Frank Graves. Neither should you. I think that a lot of the pollsters are very good

00:11:51.500 at what they do. Main Street Research, Abacus Data, a lot of the other ones, Ipsos. I think they're

00:11:56.780 actually quite solid. He goes, Frank Graves, they need to go the way of Ann Seltzer in that crazy 0.82

00:12:03.380 Iowa poll where she said Kamala Harris was up three points. No way, because I understand how politics 0.83

00:12:08.800 works. That's not what public opinion is right now. It's not just because I dislike Trudeau and the

00:12:13.920 liberals that I think this is how public opinion is. It's because I actually, you know, exist in the

00:12:18.700 world and I try and figure out what other people think that I know the conservatives are not that close

00:12:24.320 to the liberals. They're not in punching distance right now. But anyways, that's it for me today,

00:12:29.640 guys. Have a great one. Remember to like, subscribe, and share the video. Do all that great stuff.

00:12:35.120 See you later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 20, 2025

Liberals behind Conservatives by 26% in new poll! No Carney Comeback

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