Liberals behind Conservatives by 26% in new poll! No Carney Comeback
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Summary
Wyatt Claypool breaks down the latest poll numbers on the Canadian election, and why he thinks the Liberal Party of Canada is going to lose the next election. He also talks about the new Abacus Data poll, and how it paints a picture of what's going to happen in the upcoming election.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. One important lesson to learn in Canadian politics is that
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while things do change, they change rather slowly. And that's a lesson I don't think the
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Liberal Party of Canada has learned, because they started this new Liberal leadership race
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less than a year away from the next federal election, and they expected to change the
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electoral landscape of the country before they get absolutely crushed sometime in May,
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or maybe October if they can really draw this thing out. And there has been a lot of different
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polling trends coming up from the different national pollsters, and I think one of them
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is just lying at this point. So I showed you this poll the other day from ECOS, which is run by Frank
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Graves, that showed that the conservative lead had narrowed to just 11 points. Now, that's pretty
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crazy, because ECOS themselves showed the conservatives with a 25-point lead in December.
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I'm sorry, but if you observe politics, especially in Canada for long enough, you know that polls do
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not swing by 14 points in less than a month. So we've been seeing three different polling trends.
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That's the one, the ECOS one, that I just think is entirely fake. It's not that it's a faked poll,
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but Frank Graves, when he saw that result, should have known it wasn't real and that he needed to
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do some more surveys. But the other two are fairly realistic, and I think that it's probably the result
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in between these two that is the real one. So Main Street research, as we talked about the other day
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as well, showed that the liberals, after Trudeau announced that he will be resigning as prime
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minister sometime in March, and either being replaced likely by Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland,
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that the liberals had bumped up from around 20, 21 up to 26, a five-point gain in the aftermath of
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probably some liberal supporters being less depressed and now willing to say they're voting
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liberal again, not that they should. But now there is a new poll out from Abacus Data that's taken more
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time than these other pollsters to put out their poll that actually shows that nothing's changed and
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still nobody likes the liberal brand. I think probably reality is in some place between Abacus
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and Main Street, but I want to break some of these results down with you because Abacus shows the
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conservatives are still leading by 26 points. By the way, Main Street showed that the conservatives
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were still leading by 18 points, so that 5% bump didn't even exactly help the liberals much.
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But before we get into the new Abacus results, and before I have to make fun of Frank Gravesmore,
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make sure you like this video, subscribe to the channel. We're trying to get to 100,000 subscribers
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by mid-December, and you know, share it with a friend, do all that great stuff, really helps me out.
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But here are the regionals in the Abacus Data poll. Again, the overall lead for the conservatives in this
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poll was 25%, but then we also see, or I think 26%, but we also see a massive lead for the
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conservatives in provinces like British Columbia, getting 50% of the vote there. In Saskatchewan and
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Manitoba, 58%. While it's obvious that Saskatchewan is a conservative province with a 58% result in that
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collection of provinces, that probably means the conservatives can win seats in everywhere,
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probably except northern Manitoba and Winnipeg. And in Ontario, like BC, they're at 50%. In Atlantic
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Canada, 53%. This would result, and I don't probably have to tell you this, in the Liberal Party
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getting absolutely stomped. I saw that Sheree Attiste, in fact, actually served, like put these
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poll results, the ECOS one and the Abacus Data one, in his poll model. In the ECOS poll, if he put that
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into his model, the conservatives would actually only win 166 seats, which would only be a minority
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government, and the liberals would get something like 117, 120 seats. Again, I think that's complete
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garbage. In the Abacus one, it's probably a little too hawkish for the conservatives, because Sheree Attiste
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in his model shows that the conservatives would win like 240 seats, 230 seats, and the liberals would only
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get like nine. I think the liberals will probably stay an official party. But yeah, it's looking
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really bad for them. Here are the demographic results. And this is what's showing the conservative
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strength. They are winning people between the ages of 18 to 44 by a pretty wide margin. Voters that in
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theory should be voting NDP, and less than a year ago, it actually used to be a pretty tough knife
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fight between Singh's NDP and Polyev's conservatives on who were going to win the Zoomer demographic of
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18 to 29-year-old voters. But now I want to highlight another result that I find absolutely
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hilarious, and that is what people think of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and what people think
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of President-elect Donald Trump, who is being inaugurated tomorrow. So this is Justin Trudeau's
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current approval rating. He has people, in terms of his impression, 64% of people have a negative
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impression of Justin Trudeau. Only 19% of people, 1% less than are even voting liberal, have a positive
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impression of Justin Trudeau. That is absolutely abysmal. And in fact, it is lower than people's
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impression of Donald Trump. Check this out. They don't tend to test his approval rating as much in
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Canada. Well, look at this. Donald Trump, while yes, because it's kind of a default thing in Canada
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that you should dislike Donald Trump because he is the evil orange man. He's absolutely fine in my
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mind. His policies are pretty general conservative policies. But his approval rating, even now, is
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higher than Justin Trudeau's. Despite the tariff threats, he is at a 21% approval rating and only has
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62% of people who disapprove of him. Remember, Justin Trudeau is at 64%. That is absolutely wild.
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And yeah, I find that actually stands to reason at this point, because even if people dislike Trump
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in Canada because of the breathlessly anti-Trump coverage in the media, there is a certain demographic
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of people who, even if they don't like him, can respect him. And I think that that is what you would
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probably find if you polled people on adjectives they would associate with Trump, that he is strong,
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he's a tough guy. And the problem with Trudeau is he's weak, he's petty, he's whiny. And that's why
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the whole Team Canada thing that Justin Trudeau is doing right now is just so pathetic. Is that really
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you're going to be the man holding together Team Canada, meeting with all the premiers? You're barely
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even the prime minister at this point, man. But now I got to get back to ECOS polling, because when they put
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out polls and people criticize them saying, no way the liberals are only down 11% on the
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conservatives, people will then say, well, just because you don't like the poll doesn't mean it's
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bad. Oh, conservatives mad because now the liberals are experiencing Mark Carney momentum. It's
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Carney-mentum out there. Nobody knows who Mark Carney is. Only 23% of people can identify him when they
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are shown a picture. Nobody knows who this guy is. No way the liberals recovered 14% between the swing
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between them and the conservatives in less than a month. And I think this tweet really should flavor
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how we consume all Frank Graves' ECOS polls. While this poll, this post was deleted, I think it's a good
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insight into what Frank Graves thinks. Now, obviously, this is a different profile picture, because this is
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something he tweeted, as you can see, back in March of 2022. Yeah, March 15th of 2022. He said,
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a real conservative option is a healthy counterbalance and a healthy democracy.
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Pierre Polyev is an acolyte of an authoritarian populism. This is never healthy. You are on notice,
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going to make sure you are never going to leave my country. I don't make idle threats.
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Now, should I believe it when nothing has really changed that much? While, yes, Trudeau has announced
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he's resigning, which is a significant change. Has the Liberal Party or government changed much?
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Are the leadership candidates of the Liberal Party running on anything significantly different
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than what Trudeau is already doing? While, yes, Carney and Freeland are saying they're going to get rid of
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the carbon tax, they're going to replace it with probably some even more intense industrial carbon tax.
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They'll have some other price on carbon emissions at some point. At least they'll cancel it for now
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and say, well, Donald Trump is making life so hard. We need to get rid of the carbon tax. Now,
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they'll bring it back somehow. But nothing really has changed. And you can even see it in Abacus
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Data's poll of government approval, if I can find it here, because people do not think that Canada is
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doing a good job. The Canadian government is doing well. They don't have it here. But you can trust me that
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whenever Abacus Data does a poll of what people think of the current government, it basically is
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as negative as Justin Trudeau's approval rating. Here's a good one, people's top issues.
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67% of people, their top issue was the cost of living, 40% health care, 38% housing affordability
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and accessibility, 37% the economy, 28% immigration, and 26% Donald Trump administration. And that one,
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you could say probably is a bit of a 50-50 issue between the liberals and conservatives in terms
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of what people's concerns are. Either the conservatives are too friendly to Trump, which
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I don't even know what that means, or Justin Trudeau's too weak and we need Polyev as our leader
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when Trump's the president. But all of these top issues are pro-conservative issues. All of these
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issues favor the conservative party in terms of who's going to be able to campaign most effectively on
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them. And that's why when I see Frank Graves frankly farred out a result that says 11 points,
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a narrowing to just 11 point lead for the conservatives, I don't trust this guy because
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that's not how politics works. That's not how public opinion works. It takes people a while to
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know that significant events have even occurred because people are not glued to the news. And so
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it seems like Frank has been perfectly fine with letting his samples get corrupted with liberal
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or very, very nervous middle-class partisans who don't like when the conservatives say something
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conservative. And so every time Polyev has a controversy in the media that actually makes
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most people like him more, his polling goes down in Frank Graves' poll. It seems like everything
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tends to be the exact way in terms of how his results come out. Everything just tends to track
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exactly with Frank Graves' personal politics. He wants Trudeau out in December so the conservatives
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have a big lead. He wants there to be a comeback narrative for Mark Carney or Christy Freeland.
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Suddenly everything's narrowing, even though not enough time has passed for anyone to digest
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Trudeau leaving office or whether or not they actually see Carney and Freeland as real new options.
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No, everything just suddenly narrows. You are not going to see, unless the conservatives do something
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monumentally stupid, and I do not see that happening, they're not going to fall below 40%. He had them
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at 39%. No way when every other pollster consistently has them at least at 43, up to 47% in fact.
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So yeah, I don't trust Frank Graves. Neither should you. I think that a lot of the pollsters are very good
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at what they do. Main Street Research, Abacus Data, a lot of the other ones, Ipsos. I think they're
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actually quite solid. He goes, Frank Graves, they need to go the way of Ann Seltzer in that crazy
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Iowa poll where she said Kamala Harris was up three points. No way, because I understand how politics
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works. That's not what public opinion is right now. It's not just because I dislike Trudeau and the
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liberals that I think this is how public opinion is. It's because I actually, you know, exist in the
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world and I try and figure out what other people think that I know the conservatives are not that close
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to the liberals. They're not in punching distance right now. But anyways, that's it for me today,
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guys. Have a great one. Remember to like, subscribe, and share the video. Do all that great stuff.