Liberals down MASSIVELY on Top Issues - CPC holds wide lead!
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
175.77403
Summary
In this episode, I go over the recent Abacus data poll that showed the Conservatives leading the Liberals in a nationwide poll for the first time since March of this year. This is very good news for the Conservatives, and even if we assume it's a bit of an over poll, it still demonstrates that Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals are in a very vulnerable position, despite having just been re-elected back in April.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. On Sunday, I did a video where we went over the recent
00:00:06.060
Abacus data poll that showed for the first time since March of this year, the Conservatives
00:00:11.720
leading the Liberals in a nationwide poll. This is very good news for the Conservatives,
00:00:17.480
and even if we assume it's a bit of an overpoll for the Conservatives, it still demonstrates
00:00:22.960
that Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals are in a very vulnerable position, despite
00:00:28.200
having just been re-elected back in April. Now today, I want to go over the top issue polling
00:00:35.100
with you guys to show that on these top issues for Canadians, the Conservatives are absolutely
00:00:41.060
cleaning the Liberals up. People may say they're voting Liberal in the polls, but when you actually
00:00:46.520
ask them who would be better suited to tackling these individual issues, the Conservatives are
00:00:51.580
leading on the vast majority of them widely. So before we get into these numbers, I do just want
00:00:58.060
to recommend that if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe to the
00:01:03.020
channel if you are not yet a subscriber, leave a comment on what you think, and I also want to
00:01:07.640
remind you guys, if you live in British Columbia, I, with the 1BC Party, are doing a town hall in
00:01:14.260
Abbotsford on September 13th. Check out the details for that if you want to swing by in the description
00:01:19.900
below, as well as pinned at the top of the comments. But now, without further ado, let's get into
00:01:25.320
some of these numbers. So this is the rank order of what Canadians in this abacus data
00:01:31.140
poll said were their top issues. You got to pick three top issues, so naturally there was
00:01:36.920
like a dozen or so. I'm only taking the top serious ones. Once you go below crime, you
00:01:42.680
actually start to get into things where only about like 6% of people chose it as one of their
00:01:47.660
top issues, which I would say is a very niche thing that's difficult to track. I'm always actually
00:01:53.240
kind of shocked how low crime is on these polls. I guess it really is that if you live in a safe
00:01:58.440
community, it's not going to make your top three, but if you live in an area where there's a lot of
00:02:02.500
carjackings, it's probably your top issue. Crime is probably one of those things. Either it's your
00:02:07.280
very top issue, or you don't really think about it because it's not affecting you as much, but
00:02:11.640
in this poll, about 11-13% of people made it one of their top issues. So let's start at the top
00:02:18.100
with cost of living, which is by far the most chosen top issue for Canadians, with 60% of Canadians
00:02:25.220
putting it within their top three. Naturally, after that, it becomes a bit of a drop-off,
00:02:30.140
with some of these things kind of being a little bit related, like the economy and cost of living
00:02:35.120
and housing. It just is more of a niche priority compared to just cost of living alone. But I want
00:02:41.640
to go over how each of the parties are perceived on these issues. The question specifically is,
00:02:47.760
who is the best party to take on these different issues? So let's start off on the cost of living.
00:02:54.760
Specifically, in this one, it was the rise of cost of living, but same difference. So the Liberals on
00:03:00.520
the cost of living get chosen by 27% of Canadians as being the best party to tackle the issue. This is,
00:03:09.580
again, the biggest issue. Then you have the Conservatives with 39% of people believing they
00:03:17.500
are the best party to take this issue on. That is embarrassing for a government that was just
00:03:24.640
re-elected. It's not like they messed up a couple years in and now it's shifted. They basically got in
00:03:30.920
despite the fact that people do not actually trust them on the issues. But now we will jump down to one
00:03:37.380
of the few issues that does favor the Liberal Party, and that is dealing with Donald Trump.
00:03:42.460
Although, remember, this poll was conducted before Mark Carney flip-flopped on wanting to get a trade
00:03:48.080
deal done and pulling back on all his retaliatory tariffs. Plus, Trump back in late June, that was
00:03:54.680
rated by people as, like, 46% of Canadians put it as one of their top three issues. It's down to just
00:04:00.580
38%, and I think it's going to keep dropping. But here, as being the second biggest issue,
00:04:06.800
we have the Liberals with 56% of people believing that they are the best party to take on Donald
00:04:14.400
Trump and his administration, with only 21% people thinking that the Conservatives are the best.
00:04:21.420
And that would mean, let me grab a black marker here. On the first issue, it's plus 12. Actually,
00:04:27.520
I don't need a black marker. I'll indicate the party color. It's 12% of people trust the
00:04:32.860
Conservatives more than the Liberals by the margin on that particular issue. On this particular one,
00:04:40.780
it's 35% of people favor the Liberals on Donald Trump. But the problem with this, and I think you
00:04:47.200
guys probably agree, it's kind of a frivolous issue to be your issue in the long run. It doesn't say
00:04:53.040
anything fundamental about the Liberal government or how they do things. It's just saying, I guess
00:04:58.280
they're going to be more elbows up. But they're not only not doing that, but it's one of those
00:05:04.540
things that stops mattering when the economy bottoms out. But now, let's just go to the generic
00:05:10.300
economy. Just generically, who is best for economic growth? The Liberals on this issue score 34%,
00:05:19.280
which normally would be decent or pretty good. But the problem is, is that the Conservatives rank on
00:05:27.160
this one at 45% with an 11% spread on the economy. That is a great result for the Conservatives. I
00:05:35.380
probably don't need to tell you. Now, we are going down to housing. Now, on the issue of housing,
00:05:43.140
trying to find it here. The Liberals are, again, like the cost of living, which makes sense because
00:05:49.060
it's a big cost of living issue, only get 27% of people saying they're the best party to tackle the
00:05:55.600
issue. And then we have 36% of Conservatives, giving them a plus nine margin. Now, granted,
00:06:05.120
the NDP are also in a bunch of these polling questions as well. They only lead on a single one
00:06:10.320
that doesn't even make any of this top, what is it, three? Yeah, the top nine. Their next one is
00:06:16.760
like their best one is inequality and poverty, in which they lead by like one point over the Liberals
00:06:21.660
and two points over the Conservatives. It's really not worth celebrating for them. And now let's go down
00:06:28.620
to healthcare. Healthcare is much tighter, which is kind of expected. It's more of an abstract issue.
00:06:35.040
It's like, for a lot of Canadians, it gets viewed as who cares more about the public healthcare system.
00:06:42.440
But over time, this used to be a far more left-leaning issue to care about. But as the
00:06:48.200
Liberals and as left-wing governments around Canada have failed on the issue of healthcare,
00:06:52.660
we now only have the Liberals sitting at 28% on this issue, with the Conservatives surprisingly
00:06:59.100
leading, but with 30%, which is just a two-point spread, which is, I would say, in the margin of
00:07:05.220
error. They're effectively tied on this issue. The NDP was able to get 16%, which makes it one of
00:07:10.660
their better issues. But again, it's one of those things where I think it's just a bit of a dog's
00:07:15.960
breakfast. The government in power usually gets blamed for doing a bad job. And then the Conservatives
00:07:21.820
get, you know, people shaking their fingers at them because they're not sufficiently pro-public
00:07:25.900
healthcare enough. But if that's, that should be a Liberal issue. And the fact that Conservatives
00:07:31.700
are even leading by two is a big deal. Now let's go to immigration, which I just have down as
00:07:37.420
migration on the board. This one's embarrassing. Okay. We have the Liberals at 15. 15% of Liberals in a
00:07:48.040
poll where 39% of people said they would vote Liberal. When you ask people who do the best job on this
00:07:54.260
issue, 15 choose the current government. Whereas the Conservatives, and this is before the Liberals
00:08:00.180
got exposed for fudging immigration numbers, the Conservatives are at 56%. That is a plus 41%
00:08:13.500
issue. This is why during the election, I said they should run on cutting immigration rates by 80%.
00:08:19.140
And actually, right now, you have Mark Carney affected, sorry, not Mark Carney, you have Pierre
00:08:24.660
Polyev effectively running generally on what I was suggesting. Not that he specifically listened to
00:08:30.180
me, although I always would appreciate if I was able to contribute to the switch. I think Polyev is kind
00:08:37.600
of at the place he's always wanted to be. But I think he was listening to too many fussy advisors before
00:08:42.560
the election and saying just lower immigration, another 100,000. It's like net negative migration that
00:08:47.840
Polyev is running on right now is like lowering it by 80%. Anyone who has a temporary foreign worker
00:08:52.840
visa has to go, you know, and we're going to let a very limited amount of people into the country after
00:08:57.720
that who actually have real skills that we need or who are real asylum seekers coming from Iran who
00:09:03.700
would have been killed if we didn't let them in. So yeah, 41% spread. The Conservatives do not need
00:09:10.740
to focus group this anymore. Talk about immigration. It's a winning issue. And the Liberals have no leg to
00:09:16.460
stand on that one. So now let's go down to climate change and the environment because the Liberals
00:09:22.800
need some numbers on the board here. 37% of people trust them on this particular issue. And then you
00:09:29.260
get 9% for the Conservatives. No matter, this is just really not an issue anyone cares about them on.
00:09:36.580
In fact, actually, the second place party on this issue was the Green Party who got like 28% of the vote.
00:09:43.880
I don't even need to show you the Liberal spread on it because it's just one of those things where
00:09:47.720
people, you know, generically think the Liberals are good for windmills and, you know, putting up
00:09:51.800
solar panels. At the end of the day, Conservatives don't need to fret about only having a 9 on climate
00:09:57.020
change. It's an issue where the type of people who would make it their top issue are greeny,
00:10:02.760
granola, Liberal voters. They're not coming over to the Conservatives. There's no point in breaking up your
00:10:08.320
own party just to try and please the people of Saanich and the Gulf Islands and Victoria and,
00:10:14.380
you know, Toronto Centre and Montreal, Papineau voters. Don't bother with it. Let the Greens
00:10:21.180
fight the Liberals on that issue. Who cares? But now we keep going on the Conservative Victory Parade
00:10:28.760
because we are now jumping down to the issue of jobs and employment security. The Liberals,
00:10:36.320
this one's a little bit closer, but it also is because the Liberals tend to be, you know,
00:10:41.040
pro-subsidizing industries, which naturally, I guess, is good for certain people's job security.
00:10:47.200
The Liberals score on this one 35% and the Conservatives are at a 40, so they still take that
00:10:55.340
one with a respectable plus five, which I don't think anyone would sneeze at. And then we will
00:11:02.260
jump down to crime. On the issue of crime, we have crime and public safety. This actually is
00:11:09.380
the biggest lead for the Conservatives on any issue, which makes sense because the Conservatives are like
00:11:15.380
the only ones who actually emphasize locking criminals up and for longer. The Liberals on this
00:11:21.020
issue, a little bit better than immigration, they are at 16 points. But bad news for the Liberals,
00:11:27.760
the Conservatives are at 61%. Now remember, this poll had only like 41% of people saying they're voting
00:11:39.620
Conservative. So another 20 people, another 20 people who didn't say they were voting Conservative on a
00:11:47.800
national level. If you were getting, if you were trying to cobble together a government with ministers
00:11:53.440
from different parties who had free reign to do whatever they want on that issue, on crime, another
00:11:58.760
20 people who weren't saying they're voting Conservative on a national level would admit that they are still
00:12:03.900
far better on that particular issue. And so this would be, you know, 51, a plus 45 spread for the
00:12:13.060
Conservatives on the issue of crime. And so if you were putting together a platform for the
00:12:18.320
Conservatives, you would probably rightfully say you should be running on crime, you should be running
00:12:25.300
on immigration. It's a terrible writing for me, guys. I'm sorry about that. Crime, immigration,
00:12:34.700
housing is always a good one in general, you kind of have to, but you would run on then the cost of
00:12:39.060
living, that you are going to reduce taxes. And it can't be a small reduction. Again, that was a
00:12:44.660
problem during the federal election. Mark Carney saying, I'm going to give you 1% off, ooh, 1% off
00:12:52.040
on your first $50,000 of income, even though you don't even pay tax on the first 18. If you're the
00:12:58.040
Conservatives, then you then counter saying, we'll give you 1.25 points more off your taxes. It's like,
00:13:04.420
is it better? Well, yes. If someone offered me, you know, $500 back on my taxes, and someone offered
00:13:12.300
me $501, yes, strictly speaking, that is better. But if you are supposed to be the economy party,
00:13:20.180
the jobs party, the party that's really good on growth and is small government, you got to cut
00:13:25.940
taxes by three points or four points or an overall trying to reduce the amount of taxes people pay by
00:13:32.620
about 25%. You got to do a cut across the board. Even if you can't balance the budget for your
00:13:38.600
first year in office, because of all the cuts in taxes, who cares? I'd rather have deficits to let
00:13:45.000
people keep their own money than have deficits spending on stupid garbage. Plus, cutting taxes
00:13:50.700
kind of is going to, like a drill sergeant, put pressure on your own ministers, your own staff,
00:13:56.940
in order to find things in the budget to cut. Useless spending, ways of making spending more
00:14:02.460
efficient, reforming the way things are done. You kind of need to give yourself a big challenge in
00:14:07.340
order to rise to the occasion. But look at this here. We can maybe just quickly throw in that the
00:14:14.380
Liberals have a lead over the Conservatives on the issue of climate by, like, what is that, 28%?
00:14:22.000
Like, okay, like, whippy. But when you actually consider all of this, knowing that these are the
00:14:29.080
top issues, Trump's fading. That's not a big issue. The Liberals cannot run on that issue. It's
00:14:35.480
impossible next election to run on that issue. Because Trump will be halfway through his second
00:14:41.000
term, can't run for office again. And we've already admitted that our trade relationship with
00:14:45.160
them is great. And we've had Carney keep saying nice things about him. That's not an issue they can run
00:14:49.340
on again. And then what you're going to do run on climate change? They need one of these other
00:14:54.200
things. Maybe they can eke out healthcare. Maybe they can do that. But can they really? That's the
00:15:00.620
problem. Can they actually eke out a, like, a win even on that? Because they're, they, I don't suspect
00:15:07.080
they're actually going to do anything to reduce wait times. It technically is a provincial issue.
00:15:11.720
And by the way, do you know the provinces that are actually doing well on healthcare?
00:15:14.720
It's places like Alberta that Carney doesn't even like. Ontario, I can give Doug Ford credit
00:15:20.040
for something that generally their wait times have not been nearly as bad as anywhere else in Canada.
00:15:25.140
So there's no, like, liberal individual that Mark Carney can lean on as being his partner on
00:15:31.740
healthcare and shows that liberals are really great on that issue. Another person who I'm not
00:15:35.820
even sure if he's doing a good job or not, but he's popular is Wob Canoe, but he's not a liberal.
00:15:40.060
He's part of the NDP. But anyways, so yeah, that's probably going to be it for the whiteboard.
00:15:47.380
But I do just want to show you guys just specifically why I didn't end up highlighting any
00:15:52.500
other issues. There are some other issues here that do favor the liberals that we didn't talk about
00:15:57.860
yet. Threat posed by China and Russia does favor the liberals by a spread of eight points. And then we
00:16:05.380
have indigenous reconciliation in which they beat the conservatives by another wide margin.
00:16:10.860
But if you go up here and you actually look at the amount of people who can, who care about those
00:16:16.080
issues, Chinese election interference and threat posed by China and Russia, 7% and 2%. And even the
00:16:23.660
Chinese election interference obviously favors conservatives, but it's still a small, small
00:16:28.300
issue. Maybe it matters in Richmond where people don't like being bullied by CCP agents into voting a
00:16:33.860
certain way, but, and the conservatives are good on that. So it doesn't matter. But indigenous
00:16:37.900
reconciliation is down at 3%, just three. And the people who are selecting that are part of the
00:16:45.500
hardcore base of the liberals who were never going to leave in the first place. That is the baked in 20%
00:16:51.440
that they would have to like fight heaven and earth to get below. It's like the true and on crowd who
00:16:57.460
won't leave even if they're told to stop voting liberal by the liberals themselves. Even if it became a,
00:17:03.060
like a communist party, they would still say that they're correct because they vote liberal. And so that's the
00:17:09.000
problem here. The liberals have no real path on the issues for reelection unless Carney just proves that
00:17:16.300
he's so good at governing that people can't resist him and he can reverse all of these deficits he has. He's
00:17:22.400
going to be in a very tough spot in justifying why he should be reelected, especially so far with all of the
00:17:28.780
stumbles and fumbles on various issues, breaking promises already, hiding information. Now they don't even
00:17:34.880
want to replace the parliamentary budget officer watchdog because they don't like being scrutinized on how they
00:17:40.400
spend money. It's just not been very good performance from Mark Carney so far. But anyways, with that being said,
00:17:47.480
guys, again, reminder, like the video if you like the way I do this thing here. Subscribe if you want to help me get to
00:17:53.720
100,000 subscribers by mid-December of this year and leave a comment on what you think about politics
00:17:59.680
of the day. I do scroll through, contrary to popular belief, and try and answer about a couple dozen
00:18:05.380
people on comments and trying to acknowledge them and reading through them. But when I do get 1,000
00:18:11.100
comments on certain videos, great job, guys, by the way. Naturally, I'm not going to get back to every
00:18:16.260
single person or I would stop making videos and start answering comments full time. Anyways, so with that