Liberals drop 6% - Carney has done himself massive damage!
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Summary
In this episode, I cover two new polls from Liaison Research and Nanos that reinforce my point that the Liberal government is in serious trouble. The numbers don't get any better than that, and it's only getting worse.
Transcript
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Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here back with some more national Canadian polling numbers.
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I know my last video was also on polling, but I just had to cover this today because we had
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two more polls come out that are absolutely reinforcing my point that Mark Carney and
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the Liberal government are in a really bad position right now. In fact, they're falling
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off hard in some of these polls because Canadians are reacting to a few different things their
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government is doing and not liking it at all. One, they have not delivered on their only promise
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from the last election, which was to get a trade deal signed with the Americans. Now Carney can say,
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oh, Trump's hard to deal with, but he was the person who positioned himself as the Trump whisperer
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ahead of the last election, and if you left him, he's going to get a deal signed by July 21st or
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whatever, and he absolutely blew past that date, blew past the next date that was set up, and now he's
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who cares about actually getting a deal signed. On other pieces of legislation, the Liberals have
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also just been kind of mediocre. The tax cut that they were pushing is absolutely pathetic. Nobody
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really is going to notice the benefit of getting a few hundred bucks back per year, and then when it
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comes to the floor crossings, the Liberals have made themselves look extremely sleazy, not wanting to
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actually face the voters next year, so they're effectively trying to coax over some Conservatives for
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either, you know, power benefits or bribes or whatever is going on in the background, and Canadians
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don't really like it. It feels undemocratic. Now is it legal? Yes, it is, unless obviously someone's
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being bribed. When I say bribed, I don't even exactly mean in a legal way, but hey, we'll give
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you a cabinet position or we'll give you some role that pays more or has more prominence to it, something
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like that. It doesn't matter if you can do it, which I keep hearing from pundits online. Yeah, you can do
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it, and Canadians can also not like it, and they're choosing not to like it. So in this video, I want to
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take you guys through the Liaison numbers and the Nanos numbers, because these, other than maybe the
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Main Street numbers, have been some of the most dramatic in terms of their change. We're going to be
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looking at Liaison from its previous polling back in October, so I can maybe just put this out here
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for you guys. This first number from Liaison is from October. Just so you know, this isn't like last
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week's numbers, but for Nanos, this is last week. This is actually on top here. December 11 was the
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last poll that Nanos did. They tend to do weekly polling. I just wanted to show you guys how big the
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difference was in Nanos, once I go through that in just a second. Actually, December's going to get
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in my way, but you'll know that this one's the more recent one. It is quite insane just how much the
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Liberals have fallen off, despite, again, as I've been saying, they are in the driver's seat. They
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could pass a bunch of crowd-pleasing legislation and make Canadians like them. They could have passed
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a bigger tax cut. They could have maybe taken a few points off the GST, cut a bunch of regulations.
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The major projects office is not bringing them any fans, because it's bureaucratic. It's slow.
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Every time people look into the projects that Mark Carney is approving through it, it's stuff that
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was already done, and it just makes it feel like he thinks you're an idiot, but that by fast-tracking
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a bunch of projects that are like a month away from cutting the ribbon, that he's going to make it seem
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like he's actually like, you know, getting the economy firing up. But before I get into all this,
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guys, I do just want to mention that if you want to help support the channel, hit the Join button
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below the video. It's my membership program. There's a couple tiers. They're pretty cheap.
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You don't have to do it, but it just helps make the channel more sustainable for me
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and makes me less reliant on the YouTube algorithm to push my videos. But now, let's get into the
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numbers here. Let's start off, like, in order from top to bottom, we'll start off with Liaison.
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So, these were the numbers back in around mid-October. 44% for the Liberals, 35% for the
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Conservatives, 10% for the NDP. This was a plus nine poll for the Liberals. I think back then,
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the Bloc Québécois in October was at like five or six points, something like that. I'm just not
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including them here because it's not necessary for the natural picture. Obviously, Quebec factors quite
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heavily in to election outcomes, but I can tell you pretty much across all the polls,
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the Bloc's been around six to eight points across all of them. They haven't moved a lot.
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I know Quebec specifically, there is quite a difference between a six, seven, and an eight,
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but that's why it should just be a completely different video here. But Liaison, since mid-October,
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we're in around mid-December, the Liberals have fallen a little bit. In fact, they've fallen to
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38% in just two months. The Conservatives, on the other hand, have actually gained a few points
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going up to 38 and tying the Liberals. And the NDP are up from 10% to 12. And I believe the Bloc also
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gained a point or two, and the Green Party had also gained a point. This is quite an incredible
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change. And it demonstrates that Mark Carney has somehow found the way of pleasing absolutely nobody
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with the way he's governing. He is not green enough for the green left. He is not pro-public
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employee enough for the NDP trade unionist voters, and they're heading back towards the orange team.
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And for the business Liberals, who are willing to take a last chance on Mark Carney, they're
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realizing that he's not actually as good for the economy as he was making himself out to be.
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And they're also upset and leaving the party. So, yes, are the Conservatives under-polling what
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they had in the last election? A little bit. But that's, you know, obviously going to happen if
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you lose the election. Some of your voters are going to contract a little bit, but the contraction
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has not been a lot. It's been a few points. 38% down from what the Liberals had last election,
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43% is quite more of a drop. And it's a massive drop from what they used to have a couple of months
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ago, back when maybe some Canadians were believing that, you know, they're going to get a real pipeline
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deal signed with Alberta. And then we have the memorandum of understanding drop that effectively
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means absolutely nothing. Again, he ticked off the green left. He ticked off the more
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bluish Liberals on his right flank of his party who wanted the economy to go great guns and it's just
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not, he doesn't have a trade deal signed. And so he's splitting both towards the Conservatives as well
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as towards the NDP and the bloc. He's just being savage from all angles. Usually what will happen is
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when the Liberals weaken, the polls, the numbers will go decisively in one direction or another.
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You know, he did something too left wing. So he ends up throwing a bunch of votes over to the
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Conservatives and he may even pick up an NDP vote because he did something very left wing.
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In this case, he's just doing incompetent things. So he's just losing his vote everywhere.
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And so now we are at a tie ball game. And let's just say that effectively is favoring
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the Conservatives, considering that they're not the ones that are dropping. So we had the Conservatives go
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up by three points, the Liberals had gone down by six points, and then we had the NDP go up by a
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couple of points. Everyone is benefiting from the fall of the Liberals. But now let's move on to talking
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about the Nanos poll. This one again was just done back on December 11th. So we've moved up to December
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22nd today. The poll would have probably been already concluded and put together a couple days ago.
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But this is not a long ways away. This is a little bit more than a week since the last Nanos poll.
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And since then, the Liberals have dropped a decent amount of points over a short period of time.
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We had the Conservatives also fall a little bit in this poll. But again, it's all relative to the other party.
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Nanos tends to have a little bit more of a left leaning sample. Doesn't mean they can't be accurate.
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Some of their post-election polls were really weird though, so it seems like they must have somehow
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fixed their sampling over time. Or maybe even the more liberal samples of Nanos are not liking
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the Conservatives or not liking the Liberals anymore. But the Conservatives only fell by 0.4%.
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So in this poll, they are at 35.6%. And then the NDP gained a sixth of a point,
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and they jumped up to 11.4%. Meaning that the Liberals in this poll are only leading by how much is that?
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For seven points. So their lead has gone from 2.04 to 0.7%.
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The problem for the Liberals though is with this Nanos poll, they would in fact lose the next election.
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The Conservatives would win because the Conservatives have had their voter efficiency going upward.
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I've explained this in other videos, but what that basically means is that for every 100,000 votes
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a party gets, how many seats does it win? So as an example, the NDP has very low voter efficiency.
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They have a lot of thrown away votes in tons of ridings where they get, you know, 5%, 12%,
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12%, sometimes 18%, 20%, but they don't win. And so only every maybe 400,000 votes or something like
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that, that the NDP is winning, it's getting like a single seat. Obviously, the Liberals and the
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Conservatives are way more efficient. So every 100,000 votes, the Conservatives are winning, let's say,
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three seats. But every 100,000 votes or three and a half or whatever. But for every 100,000 votes,
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the Liberals are winning these days, they're only getting three seats. So the Conservatives have a
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slight advantage for every vote they are getting nationally because their vote has become more
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concentrated in the areas that they need it. If I was a Conservative advisor, and I'm not saying
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to do this aggressively, but you should basically just ignore Quebec. You have the seven or eight
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seats or whatever that you're going to win in that province from here until the end of time. The more
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pro-free market people along the border with Ontario and the Maritimes, those people vote
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Conservative. Some people in Quebec City suburbs vote Conservative. Stick with those. In a place
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like Montreal, the Conservatives literally get less than 10% of the vote in most of the ridings.
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Don't bother with it. Focus on the Maritimes. Southern Ontario, the GTA, just pick good candidates for
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Mississauga and Brampton, have real nominations where people pick who their representatives are,
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and they will show up. If you appoint candidates in, it insults the community and they don't want to show
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up. And then, of course, focus on areas around, you know, Vancouver, the greater Vancouver area,
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and you can probably cobble together a win. That's what they need to be doing. But I want to pull up
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now Sherea Teeth's projections, the seat projections on Nanos' poll, because this was quite, you know,
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it's interesting to see how this kind of models out, even though the Conservatives are technically losing
00:11:30.920
the popular vote here with a much more robust NDP. So right below each of the parties, I'm going to be
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writing down what their seat count would be. And I'll also, of course, mix in the Bloc Québécois as
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well as the Green Party here. So in this Nanos' poll, with 35.6% of the vote, the Conservatives would
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win a minority government with 150 seats. The Liberals would come in second, of course, with 142 seats,
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so it's obviously not a comfortable Conservative minority, and it would probably be pure chaos,
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but whatever. I think poly of strategy at that point would basically just be, you know, trying
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to propose as many good pieces of legislation that Canadians like as possible. And if the opposition
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keeps shooting it down for six or seven months, then you can call a new election saying, I want to
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cut taxes substantially, I want to deregulate, I want to get a pipeline built, and these people are
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obstructing me, and then you go into an election and make them eat it. But the NDP here would be
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getting 17 seats, and the Bloc Québécois would grab 31 seats with the Greens actually acquiring three
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seats based on this poll, although that can be fudged a little bit because the Greens tend to win
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in ridings where it's a three-way race. Pretty much even in Elizabeth May's riding these days,
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it's pretty much a three-way race. And so the Green seats could literally go to any of these parties,
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and so we could even just give them all to the Liberals, and the Conservatives would still be
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winning, Conservatives would grab them, their position would be a little more comfortable.
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I don't even think Elizabeth May even bothers running in the next election, so the Green Party
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could even just fold up and win zero seats and be a, you know, a thing of the past by that point.
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But again, looking at this chart, this is exactly why Mark Carney wants to try and get a majority
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government without actually having to face the voters. Across all of the pollsters, pretty much
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everyone except ECOS. Oh my goodness, I can't believe we're not winning ECOS, guys, which is run
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by Frank Graves, who hates Polyev's guts. Wonder why he gives these absurd leads to the Liberals when no
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other pollster is doing so. Carney's own approval rating right now is not even doing that well.
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Carney's not a man with a strong enough personality to truly hate. I know we definitely don't like him
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at all, but I mean for like the average Canadian, the average Canadian doesn't hate Mark Carney.
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He's too boring to hate. But even in his approval ratings, he's becoming a more contentious figure.
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I don't think the people who disapprove of him have like a seething hatred, they just kind of find him
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underwhelming. He overpromised himself, he comes across like a corporate blowhard, and I think that is
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actually kind of as a key seal these days. And then as we have seen from other pollsters like Abacus
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Data, the amount of Canadians who truly care about Donald Trump in the United States as like a big
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election issue has fallen to rock bottom levels since the election. In the election, it was like 48%, 49%
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of voters would put Trump as one of their top three issues. And even when you force them to narrow it down
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to top two and your top issue, Trump would be a substantially high issue for a lot of voters.
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These days, picking three issues, he only comes in, the Trump and the Americans only come in at 24%
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of voters even putting it in their top three. And all of the major issues that the conservatives are
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winning, they're winning by massive margins over the liberals. If the liberals are beating the
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conservatives on an issue, it's either the Trump issue which is falling in its relevance, so their wide
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lead is mattering less and less as time goes on. But things like cost of living, conservatives win
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that issue over the liberals and who you trust more by massive margin. But on the economy and job growth
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with the liberals edge out the conservatives a little bit on that one, they're winning by plus four.
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So the conservatives have a plus 13 rating on cost of living. And on job growth, the liberals have plus
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four. And really, all that says is a lot of public sector employees effectively trust the liberals to
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keep a lot of people employed, whereas probably polio would end up gutting a lot of the public
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sector of all the bloat. But even then, it's kind of a bit of a backhanded way of saying,
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oh, he wouldn't create jobs. But again, that issue is very 50-50, because a lot of Canadians
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do think the conservatives would grow the economy. And we go to things like the environment. Not only
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are the Greens winning on the environment these days, because again, Carney has ticked off the green
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left by not being able to pick a lane between pro pipeline and not pro pipeline. But even the
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liberals, when they win on other social issues, again, it's narrow, or they're having to share
00:16:02.840
it with the NDP, where the liberals are winning the issue. But like the NDP is like in a close
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second or something like that on things like healthcare, or the conservatives are in second,
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but the NDP is kind of like a close third. So it's not even a decisively good issue for the liberals,
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they actually end up losing a lot of nurses and doctors towards the NDP, which is like the healthcare
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party in people's minds. It shouldn't be the healthcare party in people's minds. They suck
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on healthcare, but they mark themselves that way. So they get a lot of votes that way as well.
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But that's all I wanted to cover in this video. I don't want to do multiple charts,
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I just want to show you guys the progression of what is going on. In the Main Street poll,
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the liberals from their last poll like a month ago had lost another couple of points. It's embarrassing,
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a lot of other ones. Yes, the conservatives were also coming down a bit, but the swings here
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are quite good for the conservatives. Like the swing, let's just go back up to the top. Sorry,
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I'm not ending the video quite yet. But when the liberals end up losing six points, and the
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conservatives end up gaining three points, remember, that is between the liberals and conservatives, a
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plus nine percent swing for the conservatives. Now, did the conservatives also lose points in the
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Nanos poll? Yes, but as we've gone over, that actually doesn't matter. What matters is what the swing is.
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So if the liberals lost 2.1 points and the conservatives lost 0.4, well, what does that
00:17:26.760
mean? That means the conservatives still had a positive 1.7 percent swing with the liberals,
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and that was over just a week. That is fast changing polls at a time when Carney and the liberals
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were trying to pretend they're up on top of the world because they got in Michael Ma. And again,
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it doesn't matter if they even secure a majority because the conservatives would rip up their pairing
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agreement with the liberals, and they would stop telling their own MPs to keep away from voting if
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a liberal had to go to a dentist appointment back in their home riding. They would basically just
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make the liberals' lives a living hell until the liberals call an election, and you would have a
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lot of liberals just saying, let me out of this place. Conservatives are not letting us do anything
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without a 10-year-long fight. But with all that said, thank you guys for watching this video.
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I will be back tomorrow with some BC news. We are in control of the party again. Once again,
00:18:20.600
for 1BC, Dallas Brody is back as the party leader. I am absolutely there to support her,
00:18:27.320
and we actually had two polls come out today showing 1BC at 7% and 8%, which is massively good
00:18:34.680
because the party has only really been operating in the public eye for around four months. And our
00:18:39.880
strategy right now is we're really focused on winning those blue-collar voters away from the
00:18:45.000
MVP. You're going to have conservatives saying, well, we're splitting their vote. Not really. We're
00:18:49.400
picking up votes from neglected voters. That's how it's happening. The PPC is a great example of a
00:18:56.360
small party that goes nowhere. It only got 0.7% of the vote in the last election because they didn't
00:19:01.400
have a reason to exist. Small parties only start gaining large amounts of momentum because people
00:19:07.800
want something different. And right now in British Columbia, people want something different because
00:19:12.520
the blue-collar workers who probably don't like the NDP anymore but are voting NDP don't see enough
00:19:17.320
of a difference with the BC conservatives to switch over. So 1BC can actually do more damage to the NDP
00:19:23.480
in the long run than any quote-unquote damage we're doing to the conservatives by quote-unquote
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splitting the vote. All a stupid argument I have to have with people on another day, but I will be back
00:19:34.440
to discuss that tomorrow. But until then, like, share, subscribe, consider joining the membership
00:19:40.280
at the join button below. With all that said, I'll see you guys all later.