The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Liberals drop 6% - Carney has done himself massive damage!

00:00:00.040 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here back with some more national Canadian polling numbers.

00:00:06.080 I know my last video was also on polling, but I just had to cover this today because we had

00:00:12.040 two more polls come out that are absolutely reinforcing my point that Mark Carney and

00:00:17.900 the Liberal government are in a really bad position right now. In fact, they're falling

00:00:23.160 off hard in some of these polls because Canadians are reacting to a few different things their

00:00:29.220 government is doing and not liking it at all. One, they have not delivered on their only promise

00:00:35.080 from the last election, which was to get a trade deal signed with the Americans. Now Carney can say,

00:00:41.080 oh, Trump's hard to deal with, but he was the person who positioned himself as the Trump whisperer

00:00:46.780 ahead of the last election, and if you left him, he's going to get a deal signed by July 21st or

00:00:52.500 whatever, and he absolutely blew past that date, blew past the next date that was set up, and now he's

00:00:58.260 who cares about actually getting a deal signed. On other pieces of legislation, the Liberals have

00:01:03.600 also just been kind of mediocre. The tax cut that they were pushing is absolutely pathetic. Nobody 0.99

00:01:09.320 really is going to notice the benefit of getting a few hundred bucks back per year, and then when it

00:01:14.320 comes to the floor crossings, the Liberals have made themselves look extremely sleazy, not wanting to

00:01:20.500 actually face the voters next year, so they're effectively trying to coax over some Conservatives for

00:01:26.380 either, you know, power benefits or bribes or whatever is going on in the background, and Canadians

00:01:31.780 don't really like it. It feels undemocratic. Now is it legal? Yes, it is, unless obviously someone's

00:01:39.120 being bribed. When I say bribed, I don't even exactly mean in a legal way, but hey, we'll give

00:01:44.540 you a cabinet position or we'll give you some role that pays more or has more prominence to it, something

00:01:50.000 like that. It doesn't matter if you can do it, which I keep hearing from pundits online. Yeah, you can do

00:01:56.000 it, and Canadians can also not like it, and they're choosing not to like it. So in this video, I want to

00:02:01.660 take you guys through the Liaison numbers and the Nanos numbers, because these, other than maybe the

00:02:07.720 Main Street numbers, have been some of the most dramatic in terms of their change. We're going to be

00:02:13.340 looking at Liaison from its previous polling back in October, so I can maybe just put this out here

00:02:19.620 for you guys. This first number from Liaison is from October. Just so you know, this isn't like last

00:02:26.480 week's numbers, but for Nanos, this is last week. This is actually on top here. December 11 was the

00:02:34.680 last poll that Nanos did. They tend to do weekly polling. I just wanted to show you guys how big the

00:02:42.020 difference was in Nanos, once I go through that in just a second. Actually, December's going to get

00:02:46.580 in my way, but you'll know that this one's the more recent one. It is quite insane just how much the

00:02:52.900 Liberals have fallen off, despite, again, as I've been saying, they are in the driver's seat. They

00:02:58.340 could pass a bunch of crowd-pleasing legislation and make Canadians like them. They could have passed

00:03:02.400 a bigger tax cut. They could have maybe taken a few points off the GST, cut a bunch of regulations.

00:03:06.920 The major projects office is not bringing them any fans, because it's bureaucratic. It's slow.

00:03:14.880 Every time people look into the projects that Mark Carney is approving through it, it's stuff that 0.99

00:03:18.840 was already done, and it just makes it feel like he thinks you're an idiot, but that by fast-tracking 0.93

00:03:23.840 a bunch of projects that are like a month away from cutting the ribbon, that he's going to make it seem 0.98

00:03:29.720 like he's actually like, you know, getting the economy firing up. But before I get into all this,

00:03:34.440 guys, I do just want to mention that if you want to help support the channel, hit the Join button

00:03:39.240 below the video. It's my membership program. There's a couple tiers. They're pretty cheap.

00:03:43.320 You don't have to do it, but it just helps make the channel more sustainable for me

00:03:46.920 and makes me less reliant on the YouTube algorithm to push my videos. But now, let's get into the

00:03:54.040 numbers here. Let's start off, like, in order from top to bottom, we'll start off with Liaison.

00:03:59.080 So, these were the numbers back in around mid-October. 44% for the Liberals, 35% for the

00:04:06.840 Conservatives, 10% for the NDP. This was a plus nine poll for the Liberals. I think back then,

00:04:14.520 the Bloc Québécois in October was at like five or six points, something like that. I'm just not

00:04:20.600 including them here because it's not necessary for the natural picture. Obviously, Quebec factors quite

00:04:25.720 heavily in to election outcomes, but I can tell you pretty much across all the polls,

00:04:31.160 the Bloc's been around six to eight points across all of them. They haven't moved a lot.

00:04:36.040 I know Quebec specifically, there is quite a difference between a six, seven, and an eight,

00:04:41.160 but that's why it should just be a completely different video here. But Liaison, since mid-October,

00:04:48.520 we're in around mid-December, the Liberals have fallen a little bit. In fact, they've fallen to

00:04:56.680 38% in just two months. The Conservatives, on the other hand, have actually gained a few points

00:05:04.760 going up to 38 and tying the Liberals. And the NDP are up from 10% to 12. And I believe the Bloc also

00:05:15.000 gained a point or two, and the Green Party had also gained a point. This is quite an incredible

00:05:21.880 change. And it demonstrates that Mark Carney has somehow found the way of pleasing absolutely nobody

00:05:29.560 with the way he's governing. He is not green enough for the green left. He is not pro-public

00:05:35.560 employee enough for the NDP trade unionist voters, and they're heading back towards the orange team.

00:05:41.000 And for the business Liberals, who are willing to take a last chance on Mark Carney, they're

00:05:46.120 realizing that he's not actually as good for the economy as he was making himself out to be.

00:05:50.680 And they're also upset and leaving the party. So, yes, are the Conservatives under-polling what

00:05:56.440 they had in the last election? A little bit. But that's, you know, obviously going to happen if

00:06:01.720 you lose the election. Some of your voters are going to contract a little bit, but the contraction

00:06:06.200 has not been a lot. It's been a few points. 38% down from what the Liberals had last election,

00:06:12.280 43% is quite more of a drop. And it's a massive drop from what they used to have a couple of months

00:06:18.200 ago, back when maybe some Canadians were believing that, you know, they're going to get a real pipeline

00:06:23.000 deal signed with Alberta. And then we have the memorandum of understanding drop that effectively

00:06:28.920 means absolutely nothing. Again, he ticked off the green left. He ticked off the more

00:06:35.240 bluish Liberals on his right flank of his party who wanted the economy to go great guns and it's just

00:06:40.760 not, he doesn't have a trade deal signed. And so he's splitting both towards the Conservatives as well

00:06:45.560 as towards the NDP and the bloc. He's just being savage from all angles. Usually what will happen is

00:06:51.400 when the Liberals weaken, the polls, the numbers will go decisively in one direction or another.

00:06:57.320 You know, he did something too left wing. So he ends up throwing a bunch of votes over to the

00:07:01.720 Conservatives and he may even pick up an NDP vote because he did something very left wing.

00:07:06.360 In this case, he's just doing incompetent things. So he's just losing his vote everywhere.

00:07:11.880 And so now we are at a tie ball game. And let's just say that effectively is favoring

00:07:17.320 the Conservatives, considering that they're not the ones that are dropping. So we had the Conservatives go

00:07:22.840 up by three points, the Liberals had gone down by six points, and then we had the NDP go up by a

00:07:31.000 couple of points. Everyone is benefiting from the fall of the Liberals. But now let's move on to talking

00:07:38.280 about the Nanos poll. This one again was just done back on December 11th. So we've moved up to December

00:07:46.840 22nd today. The poll would have probably been already concluded and put together a couple days ago.

00:07:53.240 But this is not a long ways away. This is a little bit more than a week since the last Nanos poll.

00:07:58.520 And since then, the Liberals have dropped a decent amount of points over a short period of time.

00:08:05.080 They went from 38.4% down to 36.3%.

00:08:13.240 We had the Conservatives also fall a little bit in this poll. But again, it's all relative to the other party.

00:08:18.840 Nanos tends to have a little bit more of a left leaning sample. Doesn't mean they can't be accurate.

00:08:24.040 Some of their post-election polls were really weird though, so it seems like they must have somehow

00:08:28.840 fixed their sampling over time. Or maybe even the more liberal samples of Nanos are not liking

00:08:35.480 the Conservatives or not liking the Liberals anymore. But the Conservatives only fell by 0.4%.

00:08:41.880 So in this poll, they are at 35.6%. And then the NDP gained a sixth of a point,

00:08:51.240 and they jumped up to 11.4%. Meaning that the Liberals in this poll are only leading by how much is that?

00:09:02.600 For seven points. So their lead has gone from 2.04 to 0.7%.

00:09:11.560 The problem for the Liberals though is with this Nanos poll, they would in fact lose the next election.

00:09:17.880 The Conservatives would win because the Conservatives have had their voter efficiency going upward.

00:09:23.880 I've explained this in other videos, but what that basically means is that for every 100,000 votes

00:09:29.400 a party gets, how many seats does it win? So as an example, the NDP has very low voter efficiency.

00:09:36.440 They have a lot of thrown away votes in tons of ridings where they get, you know, 5%, 12%,

00:09:41.880 12%, sometimes 18%, 20%, but they don't win. And so only every maybe 400,000 votes or something like

00:09:50.040 that, that the NDP is winning, it's getting like a single seat. Obviously, the Liberals and the

00:09:54.920 Conservatives are way more efficient. So every 100,000 votes, the Conservatives are winning, let's say,

00:10:00.440 three seats. But every 100,000 votes or three and a half or whatever. But for every 100,000 votes,

00:10:05.960 the Liberals are winning these days, they're only getting three seats. So the Conservatives have a

00:10:09.640 slight advantage for every vote they are getting nationally because their vote has become more

00:10:14.280 concentrated in the areas that they need it. If I was a Conservative advisor, and I'm not saying

00:10:19.320 to do this aggressively, but you should basically just ignore Quebec. You have the seven or eight 0.98

00:10:25.160 seats or whatever that you're going to win in that province from here until the end of time. The more

00:10:30.920 pro-free market people along the border with Ontario and the Maritimes, those people vote

00:10:38.440 Conservative. Some people in Quebec City suburbs vote Conservative. Stick with those. In a place

00:10:43.800 like Montreal, the Conservatives literally get less than 10% of the vote in most of the ridings.

00:10:49.480 Don't bother with it. Focus on the Maritimes. Southern Ontario, the GTA, just pick good candidates for

00:10:57.720 Mississauga and Brampton, have real nominations where people pick who their representatives are,

00:11:02.600 and they will show up. If you appoint candidates in, it insults the community and they don't want to show

00:11:07.080 up. And then, of course, focus on areas around, you know, Vancouver, the greater Vancouver area,

00:11:13.240 and you can probably cobble together a win. That's what they need to be doing. But I want to pull up

00:11:18.200 now Sherea Teeth's projections, the seat projections on Nanos' poll, because this was quite, you know,

00:11:25.400 it's interesting to see how this kind of models out, even though the Conservatives are technically losing

00:11:30.920 the popular vote here with a much more robust NDP. So right below each of the parties, I'm going to be

00:11:37.240 writing down what their seat count would be. And I'll also, of course, mix in the Bloc Québécois as

00:11:42.040 well as the Green Party here. So in this Nanos' poll, with 35.6% of the vote, the Conservatives would

00:11:48.760 win a minority government with 150 seats. The Liberals would come in second, of course, with 142 seats,

00:11:57.720 so it's obviously not a comfortable Conservative minority, and it would probably be pure chaos,

00:12:02.360 but whatever. I think poly of strategy at that point would basically just be, you know, trying

00:12:08.040 to propose as many good pieces of legislation that Canadians like as possible. And if the opposition

00:12:13.080 keeps shooting it down for six or seven months, then you can call a new election saying, I want to

00:12:17.880 cut taxes substantially, I want to deregulate, I want to get a pipeline built, and these people are

00:12:22.920 obstructing me, and then you go into an election and make them eat it. But the NDP here would be

00:12:28.520 getting 17 seats, and the Bloc Québécois would grab 31 seats with the Greens actually acquiring three

00:12:38.360 seats based on this poll, although that can be fudged a little bit because the Greens tend to win

00:12:43.480 in ridings where it's a three-way race. Pretty much even in Elizabeth May's riding these days, 0.99

00:12:48.520 it's pretty much a three-way race. And so the Green seats could literally go to any of these parties,

00:12:54.840 and so we could even just give them all to the Liberals, and the Conservatives would still be

00:12:58.440 winning, Conservatives would grab them, their position would be a little more comfortable.

00:13:02.440 I don't even think Elizabeth May even bothers running in the next election, so the Green Party

00:13:06.440 could even just fold up and win zero seats and be a, you know, a thing of the past by that point.

00:13:11.640 But again, looking at this chart, this is exactly why Mark Carney wants to try and get a majority

00:13:17.880 government without actually having to face the voters. Across all of the pollsters, pretty much

00:13:23.400 everyone except ECOS. Oh my goodness, I can't believe we're not winning ECOS, guys, which is run

00:13:28.280 by Frank Graves, who hates Polyev's guts. Wonder why he gives these absurd leads to the Liberals when no

00:13:34.440 other pollster is doing so. Carney's own approval rating right now is not even doing that well.

00:13:39.960 Carney's not a man with a strong enough personality to truly hate. I know we definitely don't like him

00:13:47.160 at all, but I mean for like the average Canadian, the average Canadian doesn't hate Mark Carney.

00:13:52.680 He's too boring to hate. But even in his approval ratings, he's becoming a more contentious figure.

00:13:58.280 I don't think the people who disapprove of him have like a seething hatred, they just kind of find him

00:14:03.080 underwhelming. He overpromised himself, he comes across like a corporate blowhard, and I think that is

00:14:09.160 actually kind of as a key seal these days. And then as we have seen from other pollsters like Abacus

00:14:13.880 Data, the amount of Canadians who truly care about Donald Trump in the United States as like a big

00:14:19.960 election issue has fallen to rock bottom levels since the election. In the election, it was like 48%, 49%

00:14:28.120 of voters would put Trump as one of their top three issues. And even when you force them to narrow it down

00:14:32.920 to top two and your top issue, Trump would be a substantially high issue for a lot of voters.

00:14:39.080 These days, picking three issues, he only comes in, the Trump and the Americans only come in at 24%

00:14:45.400 of voters even putting it in their top three. And all of the major issues that the conservatives are

00:14:51.560 winning, they're winning by massive margins over the liberals. If the liberals are beating the

00:14:55.720 conservatives on an issue, it's either the Trump issue which is falling in its relevance, so their wide

00:15:00.680 lead is mattering less and less as time goes on. But things like cost of living, conservatives win

00:15:05.480 that issue over the liberals and who you trust more by massive margin. But on the economy and job growth

00:15:11.720 with the liberals edge out the conservatives a little bit on that one, they're winning by plus four.

00:15:17.080 So the conservatives have a plus 13 rating on cost of living. And on job growth, the liberals have plus

00:15:22.440 four. And really, all that says is a lot of public sector employees effectively trust the liberals to

00:15:28.440 keep a lot of people employed, whereas probably polio would end up gutting a lot of the public

00:15:34.920 sector of all the bloat. But even then, it's kind of a bit of a backhanded way of saying,

00:15:39.640 oh, he wouldn't create jobs. But again, that issue is very 50-50, because a lot of Canadians

00:15:44.120 do think the conservatives would grow the economy. And we go to things like the environment. Not only

00:15:48.520 are the Greens winning on the environment these days, because again, Carney has ticked off the green

00:15:52.760 left by not being able to pick a lane between pro pipeline and not pro pipeline. But even the

00:15:58.360 liberals, when they win on other social issues, again, it's narrow, or they're having to share

00:16:02.840 it with the NDP, where the liberals are winning the issue. But like the NDP is like in a close

00:16:08.280 second or something like that on things like healthcare, or the conservatives are in second,

00:16:12.280 but the NDP is kind of like a close third. So it's not even a decisively good issue for the liberals,

00:16:17.480 they actually end up losing a lot of nurses and doctors towards the NDP, which is like the healthcare

00:16:22.440 party in people's minds. It shouldn't be the healthcare party in people's minds. They suck 0.80

00:16:26.760 on healthcare, but they mark themselves that way. So they get a lot of votes that way as well. 0.99

00:16:31.960 But that's all I wanted to cover in this video. I don't want to do multiple charts,

00:16:36.120 I just want to show you guys the progression of what is going on. In the Main Street poll,

00:16:40.840 the liberals from their last poll like a month ago had lost another couple of points. It's embarrassing,

00:16:46.200 a lot of other ones. Yes, the conservatives were also coming down a bit, but the swings here

00:16:50.840 are quite good for the conservatives. Like the swing, let's just go back up to the top. Sorry,

00:16:55.080 I'm not ending the video quite yet. But when the liberals end up losing six points, and the

00:17:00.920 conservatives end up gaining three points, remember, that is between the liberals and conservatives, a

00:17:06.360 plus nine percent swing for the conservatives. Now, did the conservatives also lose points in the

00:17:14.040 Nanos poll? Yes, but as we've gone over, that actually doesn't matter. What matters is what the swing is.

00:17:20.520 So if the liberals lost 2.1 points and the conservatives lost 0.4, well, what does that

00:17:26.760 mean? That means the conservatives still had a positive 1.7 percent swing with the liberals,

00:17:33.880 and that was over just a week. That is fast changing polls at a time when Carney and the liberals

00:17:39.400 were trying to pretend they're up on top of the world because they got in Michael Ma. And again,

00:17:44.680 it doesn't matter if they even secure a majority because the conservatives would rip up their pairing

00:17:49.080 agreement with the liberals, and they would stop telling their own MPs to keep away from voting if

00:17:55.160 a liberal had to go to a dentist appointment back in their home riding. They would basically just

00:17:59.160 make the liberals' lives a living hell until the liberals call an election, and you would have a

00:18:03.560 lot of liberals just saying, let me out of this place. Conservatives are not letting us do anything

00:18:07.640 without a 10-year-long fight. But with all that said, thank you guys for watching this video.

00:18:14.280 I will be back tomorrow with some BC news. We are in control of the party again. Once again,

00:18:20.600 for 1BC, Dallas Brody is back as the party leader. I am absolutely there to support her,

00:18:27.320 and we actually had two polls come out today showing 1BC at 7% and 8%, which is massively good

00:18:34.680 because the party has only really been operating in the public eye for around four months. And our

00:18:39.880 strategy right now is we're really focused on winning those blue-collar voters away from the

00:18:45.000 MVP. You're going to have conservatives saying, well, we're splitting their vote. Not really. We're

00:18:49.400 picking up votes from neglected voters. That's how it's happening. The PPC is a great example of a

00:18:56.360 small party that goes nowhere. It only got 0.7% of the vote in the last election because they didn't

00:19:01.400 have a reason to exist. Small parties only start gaining large amounts of momentum because people

00:19:07.800 want something different. And right now in British Columbia, people want something different because

00:19:12.520 the blue-collar workers who probably don't like the NDP anymore but are voting NDP don't see enough

00:19:17.320 of a difference with the BC conservatives to switch over. So 1BC can actually do more damage to the NDP

00:19:23.480 in the long run than any quote-unquote damage we're doing to the conservatives by quote-unquote

00:19:28.040 splitting the vote. All a stupid argument I have to have with people on another day, but I will be back 0.98

00:19:34.440 to discuss that tomorrow. But until then, like, share, subscribe, consider joining the membership 0.88

00:19:40.280 at the join button below. With all that said, I'll see you guys all later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - December 23, 2025

Liberals drop 6% - Carney has done himself massive damage!

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