The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 17, 2025


Liberals experience major drop in support across ALL POLLS!

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Mark Carney Steven Guilbeault David Lamedi ResearchCo Nanos Trudeau Leger Jody Wilson-Raybould Jonathan Wilkinson Gary Amasangari Laura Babcock Tamil Tigers Bill Blair Lucifer Zoomer Jump
Chrystia Freeland is OUT! Poilievre roasts Carney's incompetence as PM Senior Carney advisor quits - Liberals walking back budget timeline!

Episode Stats


Length

21 minutes

Words per minute

173.69

Word count

3,806

Sentence count

232

Harmful content

Misogyny

4

sentences flagged

Toxicity

7

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Back in June, the Liberals were actually doing quite well in the polls. It looked like a solid honeymoon period for them, and maybe they would be able to end the honeymoon soon. But as the summer has ground on, the polls have shifted back towards the Conservatives.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.200 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, and we are back on the whiteboard today to talk about where the polls sit nationally between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
00:00:11.260 Because we have been seeing a major shift back towards the Conservatives as the summer has ground on.
00:00:18.720 Back in June, the Liberals were actually doing quite well.
00:00:22.120 It looked like a solid honeymoon period for them, and maybe they're actually going to be able to end the honeymoon, still doing quite well in the polls.
00:00:30.600 The honeymoon period is kind of that artificial period right after an election where people are willing to artificially think nice things about whoever was elected.
00:00:39.600 And then over time, people kind of make up their real minds about them.
00:00:44.120 They could start to think a little bit less of the government, and they could even start liking them even more if they start doing a lot of good stuff.
00:00:50.440 But Mark Carney and the Liberals have really not accomplished much of anything, and they have stumbled on many, many fronts.
00:00:59.300 So I want to walk you guys through some of the major pollsters.
00:01:03.660 Some of them I like, some of them I don't even like, but we will show the change in their numbers over time.
00:01:10.020 Because even with a bad pollster, you can still see a momentum shift.
00:01:14.580 But before we get into the numbers, guys, I just want to remind you, if you like this show, make sure to leave a like on this video.
00:01:22.000 Subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber.
00:01:24.640 Around 50% of anyone watching the videos usually isn't yet subscribed.
00:01:28.960 And then also leave a comment on what you think about things.
00:01:32.480 I do like to scroll through and see what people are saying.
00:01:34.880 Plus, selfishly enough, comments do help us on the algorithm on YouTube.
00:01:39.020 Anyways, we will get right into it.
00:01:42.340 We will start off with ResearchCo at the top.
00:01:45.320 I'm going to go through what these pollsters had, the Liberals and Conservatives, around the June-July period.
00:01:52.100 And then I'm going to be jumping ahead to their most recent numbers.
00:01:56.740 And so let's start out with ResearchCo.
00:01:59.160 This was one that really surprised me.
00:02:01.540 And you'll see why once we get to the current numbers.
00:02:04.120 But the last numbers that we saw out of ResearchCo compared to like, you know, other than the most recent ones,
00:02:10.360 but the previous last numbers had put the Liberals at a very good 47%.
00:02:17.780 That is definitely not something that you are dissatisfied with if you are Mark Carney and the Liberals.
00:02:24.960 And the Conservatives at the time, this is back in like the early July, had 37%.
00:02:32.480 It was a 10-point lead for the Liberals.
00:02:37.120 Now, let's jump down to Leger.
00:02:40.240 Leger, also early July, had the Liberals at 48%.
00:02:45.620 And we had the Conservatives at that time doing even worse than Research at just 35% in their poll.
00:02:56.520 Jump down then to Nanos.
00:02:58.780 Nanos, back then, had the Liberals at 45%.
00:03:04.360 So a lower overall total for the Liberals.
00:03:07.720 But they, again, are not very nice to the Conservatives at all.
00:03:11.360 This is an even lower rating for the Conservative Party at only 33%.
00:03:19.420 Then we have Main Street.
00:03:22.120 Main Street's last poll in this period also had Liberals, like with Research, at 47%.
00:03:26.780 And we have the Conservatives at 38%.
00:03:31.300 I would say this looked like a more realistic pollster back at this time.
00:03:36.280 And again, this is the honeymoon period.
00:03:38.600 This is what voters tend to do right after a government is elected.
00:03:42.880 There is a bit of the bandwagoning effect.
00:03:45.000 Everyone pretends they voted for the winner a little bit.
00:03:47.420 You have Conservatives less likely to pick up the phone.
00:03:50.080 The samples start to get thrown off a little bit.
00:03:52.460 Some pollsters also don't correct for who you voted for in the last election.
00:03:58.040 So sometimes these pollsters, soon after the election, will be like 52% people voting in the poll, voted Liberal in the last election, even though in Canada only 43% of people voted Liberal.
00:04:10.780 So then you have the numbers really thrown off with a massive response bias for the Liberals.
00:04:17.040 A response bias is basically when there is a particular group of people, either a party supporters, or it could even just be geographically or occupation-based, being more or less likely to pick up the phone.
00:04:30.140 Rural voters, notoriously hard to get on the phone to answer a poll.
00:04:33.360 Guys who are plumbers, electricians, trades workers, typically not going to pick up the phone and even take a 30-second poll.
00:04:40.320 If you work for the government, or you work in a job where it's more part-time, or you're an older voter, you are more likely to be able to take a poll.
00:04:48.900 You also tend to get a lot of Zoomer people taking polls because they sign up for tons of online polls.
00:04:54.480 Or again, you know, you're younger, you probably have less responsibilities, you can take a poll.
00:04:59.500 Or it's actually that kind of middle-aged or rural demographic that is least likely to actually take a poll, which always sucks for the Conservatives because that is who the Conservatives rely on for a lot of votes.
00:05:10.420 But let's finish up here with innovation.
00:05:12.400 They had the Liberals at their lowest marks in this earlier part of the year, 43% to the Conservatives, 38%.
00:05:23.700 This is also why I do like Innovative.
00:05:26.420 That's a pretty realistic number, a plus-five result for the Conservatives or for the Liberals in this one.
00:05:33.560 But now, let's jump over to what the numbers look like as of recently for all of these pollsters.
00:05:43.440 So now in September here, in the Research Co poll, we now have the Liberals dropping by four points down to 43% in their most recent poll that just released yesterday, I believe.
00:06:02.260 And the Conservatives had gained a point up to 38%, which is a very good gain for them, considering the overall swing here is now plus-five for the Conservatives.
00:06:16.040 The polls moved five overall points towards the Conservatives, you know, four away from the Liberals, one towards the Conservatives.
00:06:23.820 Someone's calling me.
00:06:25.460 I don't know why people call me in the middle of my filming.
00:06:27.680 That should be illegal.
00:06:28.480 If I was running Canada, the whiteboard videos would be sacred and you wouldn't be allowed to call me during it.
00:06:34.380 But now, let's move over to Leger.
00:06:37.320 The most recent Leger poll has Liberals having fallen one point down to 47%, but they have the Conservatives having gained three points going up to 38%.
00:06:51.760 Afterwards, I'm also going to go down and calculate out all the swings, and then we will see what the sort of average swing has been across all the pollsters in just a couple of months.
00:07:02.640 Because this encapsulates right now, the Air Canada fiasco incorporates the trade fiasco, all the issues around, like, the bloated budgets, the Gary Amasangari being exposed as a public safety minister with a Tamil Tiger past, which is a terrorist group in Sri Lanka. 0.93
00:07:22.400 We have all the stupid garbage going on, no budget yet, you have the PBO, the Parliamentary Budget Office, not being replaced yet because they don't actually want financial transparency. 0.92
00:07:33.580 So that is being captured here. 0.99
00:07:36.140 And now, with Nanos, the most recent Nanos poll, this one is surprising to me because this is not a pollster I like, and I still don't like them.
00:07:44.660 But just the swing in their poll is quite incredible.
00:07:48.560 We've had the Liberals go from 45% to 42%, and the Conservatives going up to 35%.
00:07:56.080 Because this was even a pollster that basically didn't even react around the Air Canada thing.
00:08:01.220 The sign of a bad pollster is when it barely moves when a big event happens.
00:08:07.480 Like, you know, let's say you get caught in a scandal, a politician gets caught in a drug scandal,
00:08:12.900 the leader of a major party is caught doing something stupid, and a week later, a poll comes up from a pollster, and the polls have not moved at all.
00:08:21.880 And there's no feasible, there's no real reason why people wouldn't have reacted harshly. 0.99
00:08:26.740 It just didn't react.
00:08:27.740 It's like, you probably have a sample that is way too partisan.
00:08:31.540 These are not average voters.
00:08:33.000 These are hardcore supporters of each party.
00:08:35.520 The poll is too opt-in, and so the people opting in are the people who will never change their minds ever.
00:08:41.620 These are Laura Babcock liberal supporters, and that's it.
00:08:44.960 But that was good.
00:08:45.940 The Liberals fell by three, and the Conservatives gained two.
00:08:49.540 So that's another five-point swing there.
00:08:52.300 Main Street, this was a big tightening for the Conservatives.
00:08:56.740 Remember, this is just a couple-month period.
00:08:59.440 The Liberals went all the way down to just 42%.
00:09:05.620 So regardless of what happens to the Conservatives, that's already a five-point swing, and the Conservatives ended up actually jumping up to 40%, which means that they are now only separated by two points, which is within the margin of error.
00:09:22.600 So in theory, that could mean the Liberals are still up by four points, but it also could mean that they are within a tie.
00:09:28.900 Okay, and now the last one we have to mark down is Innovative Research.
00:09:34.860 Their last one was a little bit further back, I believe.
00:09:39.380 Oh, come on. 0.87
00:09:39.940 Can I not find this thing?
00:09:41.880 I think I remember what that poll result was.
00:09:44.560 I think what we had there, because for some reason not on 338 Canada, the Liberals went to 41, and the Conservatives had gone up to 39.
00:09:55.420 Oh, my goodness, Wyatt.
00:09:56.280 How about you finish your work and you actually write down the one there?
00:10:00.320 So, yeah, this is where we've seen things move.
00:10:04.560 And part of it, I think, is just the honeymoon ending.
00:10:08.260 People are starting to have more realistic opinions about the government.
00:10:11.840 And I think it's also just been that the Liberal government hasn't taken the opportunity of having everyone artificially on their side for a bit and used it to do anything.
00:10:22.760 And the fact that we're seeing all these firings, we just had David Lamedi get fired from the Prime Minister's office, the former awful justice minister that took over for Jody Wilson-Raybould. 0.80
00:10:35.880 I've heard the man is a complete political psychopath, cold as a lizard and as ambitious as Lucifer.
00:10:43.980 So if I can give Mark Carney credit for anything, he did get rid of David Lamedi, or at least he made David Lamedi a living hell to the point that David Lamedi left. 0.95
00:10:53.040 Obviously, I still do not like Mark Carney.
00:10:55.060 But we then have these five Liberal MPs planning on resigning from office, either in the near future or maybe within the next year.
00:11:03.660 People like Nate Erskine-Smith, who's a young man for politics, but he's leaving because him and Carney don't get along.
00:11:09.720 And he'd rather go and try and lead the Ontario Liberals, most likely.
00:11:13.820 You have Freeland, who, again, is not really old by Canadian politics standards.
00:11:18.240 She's in her 50s.
00:11:19.120 You can be in Canadian politics, really, until your early 70s, before someone's maybe going to try and push you to step out of office.
00:11:26.400 And she's leaving because she probably doesn't get along with Carney.
00:11:29.520 She was even calling a lot of his Trudeau-era ideas around economics gimmicky.
00:11:34.200 She did not like his GST tax freeze and all of his other spending plans.
00:11:37.660 That ended up embarrassing her into having to release the $62 billion deficit last year at a time when she was supposed to be trying to keep the deficit within $40 billion.
00:11:50.480 That was all because of the suggestions of Mark Carney that Trudeau forced her to implement.
00:11:55.260 And it seems like after winning the election, she doesn't really want to stick around too much longer.
00:12:00.040 And then you also have Bill Blair probably going to leave, Jonathan Wilkinson also probably going to leave, and then Stephen Gilbeau.
00:12:07.600 Because although Mark Carney is obviously a very green energy subsidy, like crazy green energy guy when it comes to disliking oil and gas and not wanting pipelines,
00:12:20.280 but because he's not as radical as Stephen Gilbeau, because Stephen Gilbeau probably didn't like that the EV mandate got paused,
00:12:26.900 Stephen has either probably been suggested to him, or on his own, he just wants to go because he no longer fully fits in.
00:12:34.000 Now again, this is not the Liberal Party moderating.
00:12:37.460 This is just not them radicalizing as fastly as Stephen Gilbeau would want.
00:12:41.320 But what we can see here is that we had a four-point drop at the top in research for the Liberals,
00:12:47.960 and we had a one-point gain for the Conservatives, meaning that this was a plus-five CPC swing.
00:12:57.300 Next poll down there, Leger, Liberals lost one, Conservatives gained three.
00:13:03.060 That is a plus-four swing for the Conservatives.
00:13:07.120 Nanos here, we had a three-percent drop for the Liberals, two-percent gain for the Conservatives.
00:13:15.260 Main Street, we had five-percent fall for the Liberals, and we had a two-point-six percent gain for the Conservatives,
00:13:23.400 meaning it is a plus-seven percent swing for the Conservatives.
00:13:28.260 Innovative Research, we had a two-percent drop for the Liberals, and we had a one-percent gain for the Conservatives,
00:13:34.480 but this one has always been a more conservative poll, not in terms of ideology,
00:13:38.300 but their numbers have been a little bit more slower to move since the last election.
00:13:43.380 So that is a three-percent gain.
00:13:45.400 I was going to include Abacus here. I just ran out of room.
00:13:48.760 I know their latest poll showed the Liberals popped back up by three points.
00:13:52.960 That's a complicated subject.
00:13:55.320 It's not because the Liberals gained ground.
00:13:57.220 It's because they usually release a poll every couple of weeks.
00:14:00.660 And then they released a poll, and then five days later, they released another poll,
00:14:05.020 mostly because they wanted to do issue-based polling.
00:14:07.620 And I think they didn't really care what their sample was in that poll,
00:14:10.720 because typically they try and keep their sample to be reflective of the last election.
00:14:16.080 They have 43 percent of respondents who voted Liberal last time, 41 Conservatives, 6 percent NDP,
00:14:21.860 and then they'll have a portion of people who didn't vote as a portion of the likely people
00:14:26.620 who might vote in an election but aren't completely, you know, didn't vote but are not completely opposed to voting.
00:14:33.060 They'll usually mix some of those people in.
00:14:35.700 And I think that that's what happened, is that they went from plus three Liberal to plus two Conservative,
00:14:42.060 back to plus three Liberal, and I don't think that was an actual shift in public opinion back.
00:14:46.520 I think it was just a weaker sample that time.
00:14:48.480 So that's what threw off those numbers, you know, because some people accused me like,
00:14:52.640 why, you didn't talk about abacus, are you scared of abacus's numbers?
00:14:56.320 No.
00:14:57.000 Plus, again, there is miscibility in polls.
00:14:59.680 Polls are an art, they are not a science.
00:15:02.040 You can never get the exact right people to take the poll.
00:15:05.200 Some people could lie and say, I voted Conservative last time, and now I like the Liberals,
00:15:08.520 just because it, you know, maybe makes the Conservatives look bad.
00:15:11.500 Not too much of that goes on, but, you know, within a margin of error,
00:15:15.340 maybe the Conservatives slip back to just being tied with the Liberals from a plus two to tie.
00:15:20.360 I don't think the Liberals took the lead again, but we will see next time abacus releases a poll.
00:15:25.740 But yeah, so this is pretty bad for the Liberals overall.
00:15:29.320 So we've had five, four, five, seven, and three.
00:15:34.420 I would say we would say the average swing here has probably been five percent or four and a half
00:15:39.680 towards the Conservatives in just a couple-month period.
00:15:43.280 This is not cherry-picking a poll.
00:15:45.080 This is going through all of the major polls and showing the Conservatives universally gaining.
00:15:50.880 In fact, it's mostly just the Liberals losing.
00:15:53.400 If we went back through here and we looked at the NDP's numbers,
00:15:56.560 no doubt that NDP on average has picked up two and a half points in the polls,
00:16:01.560 going from six to around eight or nine percent.
00:16:03.680 Now, again, I don't like a lot of these polls.
00:16:07.620 Nanos is not a great pollster, in my opinion.
00:16:11.040 They do very good work within the writ period.
00:16:13.660 But for some reason, after the election is over,
00:16:17.200 they go to a cheaper version of polling where they do only 250 people poll per three days
00:16:21.980 and some online rolling poll.
00:16:24.380 And it tends to, like, you can see their polling right after the election.
00:16:27.500 It's very tight, very tight.
00:16:28.860 After the election, Liberals leading by 14 points.
00:16:31.460 And look, right now, they have the Liberals leading by, like, what is it,
00:16:37.520 nine points or something like that?
00:16:39.420 Back in the day, it was, like, 13 points they were leading, and now it's nine.
00:16:43.880 Again, I think it's still a very – oh, no, I'm looking at Leger there.
00:16:48.540 Same thing with Leger, but you get my point.
00:16:50.480 You got a 12 percent lead for the Liberals here with Nanos.
00:16:54.620 And now over here, you have only a 7 percent lead.
00:16:58.580 Quite a bit of a swing there.
00:17:00.000 So, anyways, thanks for watching this video, guys. 0.82
00:17:04.720 I hope that you do find the numbers encouraging that not all Canadians are crazy.
00:17:09.120 Many people who voted Liberal, it was just the moment, oh, you know,
00:17:12.080 we got to fight back against Trump, elbows up.
00:17:14.660 Once you actually see the policies, you're going to get that marginal voter start to be like,
00:17:19.760 we made a mistake, and then they'll kind of walk it back.
00:17:22.440 Again, politics is done along the margins.
00:17:25.680 You don't need to win half of the Liberals' current vote and bring them over to voting for the Conservatives to be able to win the next election.
00:17:33.800 What you need to be able to do is just win a few points.
00:17:37.620 If we take, let's just say, Main Street as the current pollster, Liberals beat the Conservatives by 2.3 percent in the election in terms of the popular vote.
00:17:47.720 If we take this as the true state of Canadian politics right now, 42 to 40.
00:17:55.940 Remember, the Conservatives only lost the actual minority.
00:18:01.260 They would have won the election and gotten a minority government if they just had 8,000 more votes in the closest ridings.
00:18:09.820 So even if the Conservatives just gain literally 1 percent here, and the Liberals presumably lose one, and it's 41 to 41, the Conservatives would win that election.
00:18:21.520 The Conservative vote has become much more efficient.
00:18:24.840 Remember 2021 and 2019, Conservatives win popular vote, but they still don't win as many seats as the Liberals.
00:18:31.260 Because the Conservative vote used to be so bound up in the West, because, frankly, back then, I don't think Conservative strategists knew who their base was.
00:18:41.060 Even now, I don't think they know who they are.
00:18:43.100 I think Pollyov generally knows who they are.
00:18:45.960 It's working-class people who don't like liberal political culture anymore.
00:18:51.420 It's not just people who support oil and gas and guns and are pro-free market.
00:18:55.380 It can be old union voters in Windsor who will come and vote Conservatives, people in Hamilton, people in the GTA who don't like all the crazy anti-Semitism of the Liberal Party and the NDP.
00:19:09.940 They will come over and vote Conservative.
00:19:11.960 Chinese voters in both Richmond Hill, Vaughn, Markham, and Richmond in British Columbia, they're voting Conservative because they don't like crime and drugs. 0.97
00:19:21.240 They are crime and drug voters.
00:19:23.180 Women are crime voters. 1.00
00:19:25.700 They are family voters.
00:19:26.760 So if the Conservatives want to win women, you have to have a stronger pro, even have a softly pro-life policy.
00:19:32.880 Because I know people will always argue with me in the comments being like, no, if the Conservatives run pro-life, they'll lose.
00:19:38.320 Well, they've never run pro-life, and they've never won.
00:19:41.040 So I don't really know the argument there.
00:19:43.520 But if you actually look at polling on abortion practices, if you just said we're going to ban sex-selective abortion, extreme late-term abortion,
00:19:51.160 maybe you're not going to gain women voting for the Conservatives. 0.82
00:19:56.000 But what you're going to do is have a lot of people realize, oh, my goodness, the Liberals are in favor of sex-selective abortion.
00:20:02.020 They won't vote to ban it, even though the Conservatives have been proposing it.
00:20:05.380 They will defect from the Liberals.
00:20:07.600 Maybe not voting Conservatives.
00:20:08.740 They'll maybe just stay home because that kind of grosses them out.
00:20:11.180 And the thing is that especially financially secure older voters, in which a lot of you are, probably know people.
00:20:19.220 Because if you're watching this channel, you're voting Conservative.
00:20:21.500 But you probably know people who they don't really care about the economy because they own their own home.
00:20:25.520 They live in a safe part of town.
00:20:26.920 Those are the voters where you need to run on a parental rights platform.
00:20:32.160 You might have already had your kids move out, and they have their own kids.
00:20:35.400 But those people care about their grandkids.
00:20:36.980 And if you run on a pro-parental rights platform, they'll show up for that.
00:20:41.440 Run on getting the crazy sex ed curriculums out of schools, or you'll pull federal funding from those districts. 0.98
00:20:47.140 Do stuff like that.
00:20:48.280 You will do better.
00:20:49.960 So, yeah.
00:20:50.640 This is really, when you look at how close some of these elections are, yeah, Nanos is still way out there because it's a very, just a bad sample that they put out.
00:20:58.980 But it's still changing towards conservatives.
00:21:00.700 But if you're even in an innovative research-type election, 41 to 39, or if you're even in the research co-election, 43 to 38, that's a winnable race with just a tightening up between, if the Liberals here lost three points and the Conservatives gained three points, they would easily win that election.
00:21:20.580 This is how Razor think Canadian politics, or all politics, can really be in what is effectively a two-party system.
00:21:28.200 Anyways, so that should be it for me today, guys.
00:21:31.760 Thank you for watching.
00:21:32.720 Make sure to like the video, subscribe, leave a comment, do all that great stuff.
00:21:36.720 Recommend the show to a friend.
00:21:38.480 I don't know, maybe you don't even like the show, but you want to bore them to death.
00:21:41.680 And, you know, you'll think this will make them fall asleep at the wheel while they're trying to drive home.
00:21:46.580 But hopefully that's not your opinion and you've made it this far because you actually like the show.
00:21:50.480 Anyways, well, that should be it for me today, guys.
00:21:53.460 See you all later.