Back in June, the Liberals were actually doing quite well in the polls. It looked like a solid honeymoon period for them, and maybe they would be able to end the honeymoon soon. But as the summer has ground on, the polls have shifted back towards the Conservatives.
00:00:00.200Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, and we are back on the whiteboard today to talk about where the polls sit nationally between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
00:00:11.260Because we have been seeing a major shift back towards the Conservatives as the summer has ground on.
00:00:18.720Back in June, the Liberals were actually doing quite well.
00:00:22.120It looked like a solid honeymoon period for them, and maybe they're actually going to be able to end the honeymoon, still doing quite well in the polls.
00:00:30.600The honeymoon period is kind of that artificial period right after an election where people are willing to artificially think nice things about whoever was elected.
00:00:39.600And then over time, people kind of make up their real minds about them.
00:00:44.120They could start to think a little bit less of the government, and they could even start liking them even more if they start doing a lot of good stuff.
00:00:50.440But Mark Carney and the Liberals have really not accomplished much of anything, and they have stumbled on many, many fronts.
00:00:59.300So I want to walk you guys through some of the major pollsters.
00:01:03.660Some of them I like, some of them I don't even like, but we will show the change in their numbers over time.
00:01:10.020Because even with a bad pollster, you can still see a momentum shift.
00:01:14.580But before we get into the numbers, guys, I just want to remind you, if you like this show, make sure to leave a like on this video.
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00:03:31.300I would say this looked like a more realistic pollster back at this time.
00:03:36.280And again, this is the honeymoon period.
00:03:38.600This is what voters tend to do right after a government is elected.
00:03:42.880There is a bit of the bandwagoning effect.
00:03:45.000Everyone pretends they voted for the winner a little bit.
00:03:47.420You have Conservatives less likely to pick up the phone.
00:03:50.080The samples start to get thrown off a little bit.
00:03:52.460Some pollsters also don't correct for who you voted for in the last election.
00:03:58.040So sometimes these pollsters, soon after the election, will be like 52% people voting in the poll, voted Liberal in the last election, even though in Canada only 43% of people voted Liberal.
00:04:10.780So then you have the numbers really thrown off with a massive response bias for the Liberals.
00:04:17.040A response bias is basically when there is a particular group of people, either a party supporters, or it could even just be geographically or occupation-based, being more or less likely to pick up the phone.
00:04:30.140Rural voters, notoriously hard to get on the phone to answer a poll.
00:04:33.360Guys who are plumbers, electricians, trades workers, typically not going to pick up the phone and even take a 30-second poll.
00:04:40.320If you work for the government, or you work in a job where it's more part-time, or you're an older voter, you are more likely to be able to take a poll.
00:04:48.900You also tend to get a lot of Zoomer people taking polls because they sign up for tons of online polls.
00:04:54.480Or again, you know, you're younger, you probably have less responsibilities, you can take a poll.
00:04:59.500Or it's actually that kind of middle-aged or rural demographic that is least likely to actually take a poll, which always sucks for the Conservatives because that is who the Conservatives rely on for a lot of votes.
00:05:10.420But let's finish up here with innovation.
00:05:12.400They had the Liberals at their lowest marks in this earlier part of the year, 43% to the Conservatives, 38%.
00:05:23.700This is also why I do like Innovative.
00:05:26.420That's a pretty realistic number, a plus-five result for the Conservatives or for the Liberals in this one.
00:05:33.560But now, let's jump over to what the numbers look like as of recently for all of these pollsters.
00:05:43.440So now in September here, in the Research Co poll, we now have the Liberals dropping by four points down to 43% in their most recent poll that just released yesterday, I believe.
00:06:02.260And the Conservatives had gained a point up to 38%, which is a very good gain for them, considering the overall swing here is now plus-five for the Conservatives.
00:06:16.040The polls moved five overall points towards the Conservatives, you know, four away from the Liberals, one towards the Conservatives.
00:06:37.320The most recent Leger poll has Liberals having fallen one point down to 47%, but they have the Conservatives having gained three points going up to 38%.
00:06:51.760Afterwards, I'm also going to go down and calculate out all the swings, and then we will see what the sort of average swing has been across all the pollsters in just a couple of months.
00:07:02.640Because this encapsulates right now, the Air Canada fiasco incorporates the trade fiasco, all the issues around, like, the bloated budgets, the Gary Amasangari being exposed as a public safety minister with a Tamil Tiger past, which is a terrorist group in Sri Lanka.
00:07:22.400We have all the stupid garbage going on, no budget yet, you have the PBO, the Parliamentary Budget Office, not being replaced yet because they don't actually want financial transparency.
00:07:36.140And now, with Nanos, the most recent Nanos poll, this one is surprising to me because this is not a pollster I like, and I still don't like them.
00:07:44.660But just the swing in their poll is quite incredible.
00:07:48.560We've had the Liberals go from 45% to 42%, and the Conservatives going up to 35%.
00:07:56.080Because this was even a pollster that basically didn't even react around the Air Canada thing.
00:08:01.220The sign of a bad pollster is when it barely moves when a big event happens.
00:08:07.480Like, you know, let's say you get caught in a scandal, a politician gets caught in a drug scandal,
00:08:12.900the leader of a major party is caught doing something stupid, and a week later, a poll comes up from a pollster, and the polls have not moved at all.
00:08:21.880And there's no feasible, there's no real reason why people wouldn't have reacted harshly.
00:08:45.940The Liberals fell by three, and the Conservatives gained two.
00:08:49.540So that's another five-point swing there.
00:08:52.300Main Street, this was a big tightening for the Conservatives.
00:08:56.740Remember, this is just a couple-month period.
00:08:59.440The Liberals went all the way down to just 42%.
00:09:05.620So regardless of what happens to the Conservatives, that's already a five-point swing, and the Conservatives ended up actually jumping up to 40%, which means that they are now only separated by two points, which is within the margin of error.
00:09:22.600So in theory, that could mean the Liberals are still up by four points, but it also could mean that they are within a tie.
00:09:28.900Okay, and now the last one we have to mark down is Innovative Research.
00:09:34.860Their last one was a little bit further back, I believe.
00:09:56.280How about you finish your work and you actually write down the one there?
00:10:00.320So, yeah, this is where we've seen things move.
00:10:04.560And part of it, I think, is just the honeymoon ending.
00:10:08.260People are starting to have more realistic opinions about the government.
00:10:11.840And I think it's also just been that the Liberal government hasn't taken the opportunity of having everyone artificially on their side for a bit and used it to do anything.
00:10:22.760And the fact that we're seeing all these firings, we just had David Lamedi get fired from the Prime Minister's office, the former awful justice minister that took over for Jody Wilson-Raybould.
00:10:35.880I've heard the man is a complete political psychopath, cold as a lizard and as ambitious as Lucifer.
00:10:43.980So if I can give Mark Carney credit for anything, he did get rid of David Lamedi, or at least he made David Lamedi a living hell to the point that David Lamedi left.
00:10:53.040Obviously, I still do not like Mark Carney.
00:10:55.060But we then have these five Liberal MPs planning on resigning from office, either in the near future or maybe within the next year.
00:11:03.660People like Nate Erskine-Smith, who's a young man for politics, but he's leaving because him and Carney don't get along.
00:11:09.720And he'd rather go and try and lead the Ontario Liberals, most likely.
00:11:13.820You have Freeland, who, again, is not really old by Canadian politics standards.
00:11:19.120You can be in Canadian politics, really, until your early 70s, before someone's maybe going to try and push you to step out of office.
00:11:26.400And she's leaving because she probably doesn't get along with Carney.
00:11:29.520She was even calling a lot of his Trudeau-era ideas around economics gimmicky.
00:11:34.200She did not like his GST tax freeze and all of his other spending plans.
00:11:37.660That ended up embarrassing her into having to release the $62 billion deficit last year at a time when she was supposed to be trying to keep the deficit within $40 billion.
00:11:50.480That was all because of the suggestions of Mark Carney that Trudeau forced her to implement.
00:11:55.260And it seems like after winning the election, she doesn't really want to stick around too much longer.
00:12:00.040And then you also have Bill Blair probably going to leave, Jonathan Wilkinson also probably going to leave, and then Stephen Gilbeau.
00:12:07.600Because although Mark Carney is obviously a very green energy subsidy, like crazy green energy guy when it comes to disliking oil and gas and not wanting pipelines,
00:12:20.280but because he's not as radical as Stephen Gilbeau, because Stephen Gilbeau probably didn't like that the EV mandate got paused,
00:12:26.900Stephen has either probably been suggested to him, or on his own, he just wants to go because he no longer fully fits in.
00:12:34.000Now again, this is not the Liberal Party moderating.
00:12:37.460This is just not them radicalizing as fastly as Stephen Gilbeau would want.
00:12:41.320But what we can see here is that we had a four-point drop at the top in research for the Liberals,
00:12:47.960and we had a one-point gain for the Conservatives, meaning that this was a plus-five CPC swing.
00:12:57.300Next poll down there, Leger, Liberals lost one, Conservatives gained three.
00:13:03.060That is a plus-four swing for the Conservatives.
00:13:07.120Nanos here, we had a three-percent drop for the Liberals, two-percent gain for the Conservatives.
00:13:15.260Main Street, we had five-percent fall for the Liberals, and we had a two-point-six percent gain for the Conservatives,
00:13:23.400meaning it is a plus-seven percent swing for the Conservatives.
00:13:28.260Innovative Research, we had a two-percent drop for the Liberals, and we had a one-percent gain for the Conservatives,
00:13:34.480but this one has always been a more conservative poll, not in terms of ideology,
00:13:38.300but their numbers have been a little bit more slower to move since the last election.
00:17:00.000So, anyways, thanks for watching this video, guys.
00:17:04.720I hope that you do find the numbers encouraging that not all Canadians are crazy.
00:17:09.120Many people who voted Liberal, it was just the moment, oh, you know,
00:17:12.080we got to fight back against Trump, elbows up.
00:17:14.660Once you actually see the policies, you're going to get that marginal voter start to be like,
00:17:19.760we made a mistake, and then they'll kind of walk it back.
00:17:22.440Again, politics is done along the margins.
00:17:25.680You don't need to win half of the Liberals' current vote and bring them over to voting for the Conservatives to be able to win the next election.
00:17:33.800What you need to be able to do is just win a few points.
00:17:37.620If we take, let's just say, Main Street as the current pollster, Liberals beat the Conservatives by 2.3 percent in the election in terms of the popular vote.
00:17:47.720If we take this as the true state of Canadian politics right now, 42 to 40.
00:17:55.940Remember, the Conservatives only lost the actual minority.
00:18:01.260They would have won the election and gotten a minority government if they just had 8,000 more votes in the closest ridings.
00:18:09.820So even if the Conservatives just gain literally 1 percent here, and the Liberals presumably lose one, and it's 41 to 41, the Conservatives would win that election.
00:18:21.520The Conservative vote has become much more efficient.
00:18:24.840Remember 2021 and 2019, Conservatives win popular vote, but they still don't win as many seats as the Liberals.
00:18:31.260Because the Conservative vote used to be so bound up in the West, because, frankly, back then, I don't think Conservative strategists knew who their base was.
00:18:41.060Even now, I don't think they know who they are.
00:18:43.100I think Pollyov generally knows who they are.
00:18:45.960It's working-class people who don't like liberal political culture anymore.
00:18:51.420It's not just people who support oil and gas and guns and are pro-free market.
00:18:55.380It can be old union voters in Windsor who will come and vote Conservatives, people in Hamilton, people in the GTA who don't like all the crazy anti-Semitism of the Liberal Party and the NDP.
00:19:09.940They will come over and vote Conservative.
00:19:11.960Chinese voters in both Richmond Hill, Vaughn, Markham, and Richmond in British Columbia, they're voting Conservative because they don't like crime and drugs.
00:19:26.760So if the Conservatives want to win women, you have to have a stronger pro, even have a softly pro-life policy.
00:19:32.880Because I know people will always argue with me in the comments being like, no, if the Conservatives run pro-life, they'll lose.
00:19:38.320Well, they've never run pro-life, and they've never won.
00:19:41.040So I don't really know the argument there.
00:19:43.520But if you actually look at polling on abortion practices, if you just said we're going to ban sex-selective abortion, extreme late-term abortion,
00:19:51.160maybe you're not going to gain women voting for the Conservatives.
00:19:56.000But what you're going to do is have a lot of people realize, oh, my goodness, the Liberals are in favor of sex-selective abortion.
00:20:02.020They won't vote to ban it, even though the Conservatives have been proposing it.
00:20:50.640This is really, when you look at how close some of these elections are, yeah, Nanos is still way out there because it's a very, just a bad sample that they put out.
00:20:58.980But it's still changing towards conservatives.
00:21:00.700But if you're even in an innovative research-type election, 41 to 39, or if you're even in the research co-election, 43 to 38, that's a winnable race with just a tightening up between, if the Liberals here lost three points and the Conservatives gained three points, they would easily win that election.
00:21:20.580This is how Razor think Canadian politics, or all politics, can really be in what is effectively a two-party system.
00:21:28.200Anyways, so that should be it for me today, guys.