The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 06, 2025


Liberals FALL behind Conservatives - Carney approval drops hard!


Episode Stats


Length

17 minutes

Words per minute

160.70035

Word count

2,882

Sentence count

161


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A new poll from Angus Reid Research shows the Liberals are now just 2 points behind the Tories in the polls, and Mark Carney's approval rating is at an all-time low. What does this mean for the future of the government?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
00:00:00.240 Ahoy, everyone. I am back on the whiteboard today because we need to talk about a shocking poll out from Angus Reid that, like the Abacus data poll, shows not only the Liberals down below the Conservatives, but it also shows Mark Carney's approval falling off a cliff at a time when it should be very easy for the Liberals and for Carney to maintain popularity.
00:00:26.640 Generally speaking, when a party gets elected or re-elected, it is going to have a honeymoon phase for about six months where people have that feeling of, well, give them a chance.
00:00:39.140 You know, let's think nice things about them because, you know, everyone generally wants to like their government.
00:00:45.460 You really want to live in a country where you hate the government. You'd probably rather like them than dislike them.
00:00:51.160 And so people will pretend as long as they can. And so the honeymoon is ending two months early because of just how poorly the Liberals are performing.
00:01:00.960 It is quite remarkable that they have taken a situation where they should be easily flying 10 points above the Conservatives, and they are now two points down.
00:01:11.920 I will break this poll down for you guys in just a second.
00:01:15.180 But before we get into it, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on this video.
00:01:21.320 Subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber. Help me get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December of this year.
00:01:27.880 And leave a comment on what you think about the current state of Canadian politics.
00:01:32.680 Now, right off the bat, I want to mention this poll is being done with a sample size of 3,378.
00:01:40.380 This is a massive sample size for anyone out there who wants to say, well, it's only 1,000 people.
00:01:47.540 Even 1,000 people is actually good for a sample size. This one is very good.
00:01:52.500 This is not a fluke result because they only polled 800 people and they just had a strange sample.
00:01:58.640 This is overcoming any barriers that you're going to have with a smaller sample.
00:02:02.580 So, right now, we have the Conservatives at 40%, Liberals at 38%, we have the NDP at 10%, Bloc Québécois at 8%, Greens are 2%, and I even included the PPC at 1% because I like the fact that I have the right colors with all my markers now.
00:02:20.480 The Conservatives are technically down by just 1% since the election.
00:02:26.560 Angus Reid actually has not released a poll since the election up to this point, but it is particularly bad for the Liberals, who are down around 5.5%.
00:02:40.160 Ooh, I'm going to rewrite that one.
00:02:42.620 But the Liberals are down 5.5% since Election Day.
00:02:47.080 This is like the type of swing that would cause the Conservatives to almost be in government because what you may remember in this last election is that despite the Conservatives losing the popular vote by 2.3%, it was actually still really close because unlike previous elections, the Conservative vote is more efficient than the Liberal vote.
00:03:14.020 Usually, the Conservatives could win the popular vote by 1% or 2%, but they would still lose to the Liberals simply because so much of their vote was bound up in Western Canada.
00:03:25.500 Now, the Conservatives still do well in Western Canada, but they're making gains in strategic places that make it easier for them to win, whereas now they need fewer votes in theory to be able to win a seat than the Liberals do.
00:03:38.740 But the NDP is up by actually 4% since Election Day, which is great for them, and we have the Bloc Québécois up by 2%, and then the Greens and the PPC holding neutral.
00:03:56.180 Now, what you're going to see in this poll is the real story has really nothing to do with the Conservatives.
00:04:02.480 In fact, they're technically down by a point.
00:04:05.100 It doesn't really matter because even a poll like this will have a margin of error of 2.5%.
00:04:09.860 If you re-polled this multiple times, you would have a result where the Conservatives have 42%, where they have 39%, where they have 40% like here, they have 41% like they had on Election Day.
00:04:19.700 But this is not a margin of error issue for the Liberals.
00:04:23.380 They have fallen 5.5 points since Election Day, and this is not disconnected from the Liberals' performance.
00:04:30.080 It's not that Canadians have gotten harsher, they've gotten picky with what they want their government to do.
00:04:34.940 This is because we have a $92 billion deficit.
00:04:38.560 We have been failing on the trade negotiations with the United States, that we've lost 107,000 jobs in the last two months,
00:04:48.260 and that Carney seems completely disconnected from the actual issues of the country.
00:04:53.380 Everything he's doing feels like business as usual when he marketed himself as the crisis management prime minister.
00:05:00.520 He's going to get in here and fix up all the problems, and he immediately goes on vacation.
00:05:04.820 All of that is why they're down.
00:05:07.120 But most in particular, the reason the Liberals are currently down is because of Air Canada.
00:05:14.040 That fiasco is what is causing people to go from the Liberal Party and jump over both to the NDP as well as the Bloc Québécois.
00:05:24.800 Workers in Quebec, as in the rest of Canada, who voted Liberal in this last election,
00:05:32.280 but probably previously voted for one of those other two parties, are currently going home.
00:05:37.400 So I want to erase the board for just a second here, and then I'm going to come back and show you guys where these votes are currently splitting from the Liberals.
00:05:47.000 It's very interesting.
00:05:48.880 And now we're back, and I want to talk to you about where the Liberal votes are currently going.
00:05:55.280 For context, the Conservative Party of Canada is maintaining 93% of their vote.
00:06:02.400 So 93% of people who voted for the Conservatives in the 2025 federal election plan on doing it next time,
00:06:11.700 with there being some undecided people, you know, 1% going NDP, 1% going back Liberal, or 3% going back Liberal, 1% going to the Bloc.
00:06:20.040 It's kind of a small portion of people who may move over to a different party, which is typical.
00:06:25.560 You typically hold on, if you're a healthy party, to 90-plus percent of your vote.
00:06:30.160 But the Liberals, on the other hand, are holding on to 84% of their vote.
00:06:38.340 So, which is not terrible, but considering, again, it's only been a few months,
00:06:45.240 it is quite concerning that now, though, they have 9% of their party now considering going back to the NDP,
00:06:55.960 with also another sliver going back to the Bloc Québécois, an actual sliver also going over to the Green Party,
00:07:04.760 and then people also deciding to go over to the Conservatives.
00:07:10.580 And so this is what the current 2025 Liberal Voter Coalition is looking like in the next election.
00:07:17.400 Yes, while they have a lot of Liberals still willing to stick around, 84% ain't exactly how you're going to win the next election.
00:07:27.860 And people sometimes misread this because right now it says on the NDP's side of things
00:07:34.420 that 79% of people who voted NDP in 2025 plan on voting NDP again,
00:07:42.420 with having 12% of the people who voted NDP in the 2025 election planning on going to vote Liberal.
00:07:51.040 But naturally, remember, though, that in this poll, because of the amount of people, the size of the poll, it was really big.
00:08:00.120 So, this poll, though, had only 186 people who had voted NDP last time.
00:08:11.620 And this poll had 1,388 people who voted Liberal.
00:08:17.700 I am merely pointing out that 12% of NDP voters going to go vote Liberal who voted NDP this last time
00:08:27.440 and having 9% who voted Liberal last time going to vote NDP the next time is obviously the better deal for the NDP.
00:08:35.680 This 12%, I calculated it, for the NDP going to the Liberals represents about 0.7% of the electorate
00:08:43.980 thinking about going from NDP to Liberal, where this 9% of the Liberals is 3.7% of the entire electorate
00:08:51.900 deciding to go back here.
00:08:53.600 There is a reason why the NDP is now at 10%.
00:08:57.900 They've jumped up 4% in the polls, mostly off of the back of this 9% of Liberals jumping over,
00:09:05.200 plus some from the Bloc and a little bit from the Conservatives.
00:09:08.420 But things are actually somehow looking good for the NDP, who are politically incompetent.
00:09:15.040 These guys could mess up breakfast cereal, but they are somehow jumping ahead
00:09:20.280 because of the incompetence, the greater incompetence of Mark Carney as his Liberal government.
00:09:26.720 Part of it's the arrogance.
00:09:28.540 Mark Carney just appoints people around him that he likes, that don't get on his nerves.
00:09:33.780 So Nate Erskine Smith got to be Housing Minister for like three weeks before Carney called the
00:09:39.500 federal election, and then he replaced him with Gregor Robertson, who's the former mayor
00:09:44.720 of Vancouver, completely incompetent.
00:09:47.120 But he's a yes man, that's why he keeps him around.
00:09:49.400 That's why he made a man like Gary Amasangari, the Public Safety Minister, despite the fact that
00:09:54.940 he may be himself a part of a terror group.
00:09:57.760 Because in 2006, his phone number was on a directory for other people who were part of
00:10:04.680 the Tamil Tigers.
00:10:06.180 Like, my goodness.
00:10:07.740 But this is what's going on in Canada right now.
00:10:10.320 We just have a bunch of incompetent losers in government who can't do anything because,
00:10:15.480 well, Mark Carney likes hanging out with them better than the other guys in his cabinet or
00:10:19.760 in his party.
00:10:20.820 And that's not an endorsement of Nate Erskine Smith.
00:10:23.700 The man's a crazy vegan.
00:10:24.940 He is someone who would probably be wanting to keep the EV mandate in place that Mark Carney
00:10:30.260 put a pause on yesterday.
00:10:32.260 But at least he had new ideas.
00:10:34.860 And again, I'm speaking from the perspective, if I was a liberal, obviously I'm a conservative.
00:10:40.340 But if I was a liberal, I would be trying to tell Carney to stand firm on some of these
00:10:46.460 policies.
00:10:47.260 Because the thing is, he's feeding into a narrative that is quickly developing about
00:10:52.140 himself, that he gets pushed off the ball easily, that he's not a crisis manager, that
00:10:58.180 he doesn't know how to deal with Donald Trump, that he is not actually more fiscally responsible
00:11:02.400 than Justin Trudeau.
00:11:04.020 But in a second here, we are going to talk further about Mark Carney and specifically his
00:11:09.380 approval rating.
00:11:10.360 Just let me reset the board.
00:11:11.660 And I want to show you the chart over time, because this is something that Angus Reid has
00:11:15.740 been tracking over the last few months.
00:11:17.920 They only recently put out specific partisan numbers, but previously they were just asking
00:11:22.560 people about Mark Carney's approval rating.
00:11:27.280 Hopefully everyone excuses me for my poor line work.
00:11:31.660 But this is Mark Carney's current approval rating trends on the Angus Reid poll.
00:11:38.400 So what we have back here is this is April.
00:11:42.480 This is a couple days before the election.
00:11:44.460 We're in a much very partisan time, but he still has a good approval.
00:11:48.660 54 to 41.
00:11:50.920 High disapprovals, because obviously he's constantly taking attacks from the NDP, the Conservatives,
00:11:56.700 the Bloc, everyone.
00:11:58.260 And then right after the election, Canadians decide, let's give the guy a chance.
00:12:03.020 And his approval goes from 54 to 57, with many people who are disapproving of him previously
00:12:09.220 going into the undecided category, having this number drop from 41% all the way down to just
00:12:16.760 29.
00:12:18.200 But then we have, because this next number, this is July, this is August.
00:12:24.000 And so this is around the time that we are having the Air Canada strike not yet occurring,
00:12:31.680 but it's on the kind of horizon.
00:12:33.940 And we have the disapproval rating having been increasing by 5% as Mark Carney's government
00:12:41.080 is not doing much, but mostly his approval is steady, 57 to 56.
00:12:45.560 But now in September, this poll was done on August 29th to September, I believe, 3rd or 4th.
00:12:52.520 We have the disapprovals jump from 34% back to where they were right on before the election,
00:12:58.760 41, it jumps up 7 points, and we have now the approval all by 5 points.
00:13:07.220 So since this last poll, this last approval poll that they did in August, in early August,
00:13:15.800 we have him going down 5 points and the disapproval increasing by 7.
00:13:22.620 So if you can do math, unlike myself sometimes, my goodness, that is him falling.
00:13:30.300 That is a net 13% swing against the Prime Minister over this period of time.
00:13:39.480 Not fantastic for his future projections.
00:13:43.300 The fact that you're falling that much is pretty sad.
00:13:46.080 And there's just a couple more things I want to talk about in this poll before we wrap up.
00:13:51.220 And I do want to just bring it up on screen now, just for the sake of it.
00:13:55.240 The thing is that right now, the regional numbers are really not great for the Liberals too.
00:14:01.060 Like the regionals are pretty abysmal.
00:14:04.460 Right now, in Ontario, the Liberals are tied.
00:14:08.000 The thing is that during the election, they won by about 6 or 7 points.
00:14:12.620 The fact that they're tied probably means the Conservatives take the majority of those seats.
00:14:17.900 In Manitoba, we actually have the Conservatives 12 points ahead of the Liberals.
00:14:23.100 A province where usually the Liberals can actually outpace the Conservatives or come close.
00:14:28.360 Atlantic Canada, this is where the Liberals in previous polls were running 60%.
00:14:34.220 Now they're 51 and the Conservatives are 37, which is a big climb up for the Conservatives,
00:14:39.540 considering that in previous months they were only at 30.
00:14:43.120 And then in British Columbia, we have the Conservatives leading by 3 points,
00:14:48.820 with actually the NDP back up to more normal-looking numbers for themselves at 15 points.
00:14:55.520 The problem is the Conservatives are not actually, again, going up in this poll.
00:15:00.280 The Conservatives are maintaining, while everyone is reconsidering the Liberals on the left.
00:15:06.840 The Liberals are mostly being pulled in the direction of the Bloc Québécois and the NDP.
00:15:13.240 The Conservatives, by having more bold policy, I think that will pay dividends for them in the future,
00:15:18.820 and they are going to gain more support because of Polyev's more hard-line stances on things like immigration,
00:15:26.020 on the TFW program, on the EV mandate, scrapping the industrial carbon tax.
00:15:31.700 There's many areas where Polyev has gotten stronger, and it will help him.
00:15:36.540 But right now, the main problem for the Liberals is just that people see them as weak.
00:15:40.660 So even the Conservatives just doing enough to maintain means that they could win the next election.
00:15:45.500 Now, I think they should always be more assertive.
00:15:47.620 Always try and claw more support over to yourself.
00:15:51.580 Don't just try and hold the line.
00:15:53.920 You should always be trying to take more territory.
00:15:56.360 But that's pathetic.
00:15:57.360 The Conservatives could tread water right now and be beating the Liberals.
00:16:01.480 And people can say, well, the Liberals won the last election.
00:16:04.200 How couldn't they just win this one?
00:16:05.780 Well, sure, they could just win the next election.
00:16:08.320 But that's just not really how elections work.
00:16:11.120 People tend to, like, you can't pull the same trick twice.
00:16:15.780 Eventually, people kind of learn their lesson.
00:16:18.460 Because Justin Trudeau was such an anomalously bad leader in a lot of people's minds,
00:16:22.560 by simply swapping him out, you did change it to being a new government.
00:16:26.840 And that's why the Liberals even now keep saying, we're a new government.
00:16:29.640 We're the new government.
00:16:30.740 Because they need to try and shake the legacy of Trudeau.
00:16:34.200 But if it's proven that even a new government is no different than a normal bad Liberal government,
00:16:41.240 well, people eventually are maybe not even going to switch to voting Conservative.
00:16:45.140 But they're not going to be showing up for the Liberals.
00:16:46.940 And that's enough.
00:16:47.720 Again, people will say, well, most people will just delusionally vote Liberal again,
00:16:51.980 who voted Liberal last time.
00:16:53.620 Okay.
00:16:54.560 But if they come in with 30% of their vote, are they going to win?
00:16:58.080 If they come in with 35% and the Conservatives have 42%, are they going to win?
00:17:02.060 Politics is done along the margins.
00:17:04.420 You don't need to win all the other person's troops in order to win the battle.
00:17:08.580 You just need to have more.
00:17:10.260 You just need to have a significant amount, enough more,
00:17:14.400 that you can get a majority government,
00:17:16.160 which for the Conservatives may only need to be like 3%,
00:17:20.040 a 3% victory in the popular vote.
00:17:23.180 But anyways, with that being said,
00:17:25.020 thank you guys for watching these polling update videos.
00:17:27.800 I'll probably take a break from doing these,
00:17:30.240 but we just had a big spate of new numbers coming out.
00:17:33.220 So it was worth me making three videos in about three or four days.
00:17:38.520 Because like it was just genuinely a big news,
00:17:41.480 just how much Canadians are starting to shift hard against the Liberals.
00:17:45.060 But anyways, so with that said, make sure to like the video,
00:17:48.260 subscribe, share, leave a comment, do all that fantastic stuff.
00:17:52.340 It really helps us out.
00:17:53.640 And I will see you guys all next time.