In this episode, we discuss the swing between the Conservatives and Liberals from their last poll to their current poll, as well as how the Tories are doing on the major issues, and which issues are ranking highest for Canadians.
00:00:00.000Ahoy, everyone. Wyatt Claypool here, back again to break down some Canadian national polling numbers.
00:00:06.620Today on the show, we're going to be breaking down a few different subjects.
00:00:10.920We're going to start off with the swing between the Conservatives and the Liberals across four pollsters from their last poll to their current poll.
00:00:19.420And then I want to talk about some issue polling, how the Conservatives are doing compared to the Liberals on the different major issues for Canadians, as well as which issues are ranking highest for Canadians right now.
00:00:32.720Spoiler alert, the Liberals are losing their Trump issue very, very hard now.
00:00:37.760Like, previously, I was blowing the whistle on the fact that Carney needs to find a new issue to run on, because Trump and his administration and abacus data's polling had fallen to like 34% when around election time it was nearly 50% of people would place it in their top three.
00:00:55.420Now it's way further down than even just 34% at this point.
00:00:59.800But before we start breaking down these different subjects, I just want to remind you guys, if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber,
00:01:10.180and if you want to help support the channel, you can join the membership for the channel.
00:01:13.820Helps make the channel more sustainable for me and makes me less reliant on YouTube's algorithm.
00:01:19.320But now, let's get right into it, and we will start off with the most boring swing on this board, which comes from Abacus Data.
00:01:27.880And this is what I mean when I say that Abacus Data is kind of a boring pollster, or not boring, so I mean conservative pollster.
00:01:35.240They tend to have boring numbers week to week, and that's not a bad thing.
00:01:39.520They just don't tend to change very much, since they have a very good polling methodology that doesn't end up oversampling one group more one week and then another group the next week.
00:01:49.280When a pollster has their numbers going way up and way down week to week, you know that there's a problem with their sampling, because people don't change their opinions that much.
00:01:58.760So Abacus Data is a very conservative pollster.
00:02:01.980And from their last poll to this most recent poll, they have literally not budged an inch.
00:02:07.420They have the liberals and the conservatives still both at 41%.
00:02:11.980I am just including this one here, just for the sake of completion, to show you I'm not leaving anything out here.
00:02:18.620There are some pollsters not showing the conservatives are making gains, so that is a completely neutral move since the last Abacus Data poll.
00:02:31.560It's not like Palace and Main Street that we'll be getting into in a bit.
00:02:34.300The conservatives are not gaining on the liberals exactly, but the liberals are shrinking towards the conservatives.
00:02:41.860In fact, since Ipsos' last poll, which I believe was over like a month ago, maybe even two months ago, the liberals have actually lost three points and fallen to 40%.
00:02:53.200And the conservatives lost points too, but they only fell to 37%, meaning that this poll, despite both parties losing support, is still a plus one swing towards the conservatives.
00:03:08.180Because, of course, a swing is just the difference between the two parties.
00:03:13.060How are these parties basically shifting away towards each other?
00:03:17.880So that's a plus one swing for the conservatives, regardless of the fact that they did lose a little bit of support here.
00:03:25.020But now let's get to Main Street research.
00:04:32.780Hopefully that doesn't bother you guys too much.
00:04:35.200And then Palestina, this is a milder one, but it is still significant here.
00:04:40.260We had the liberals fall by half a point down to 40.9% and the conservatives had gone up by 0.8% up to 37.7%.
00:04:52.380And that means that is an overall swing of 1.3% for the conservatives since the last Pal as a data poll, which is not too shabby at all if you are the conservatives.
00:05:09.240And now, again, we go back to the news of the day, which is the liberals trying to acquire a majority by just having conservatives cross the floor.
00:05:19.540And considering here we have had a neutral poll and then we have had three polls that show the conservatives making a gain on the liberals.
00:05:28.220Well, yeah, the liberals are going to be nervous thinking about actually having to run in a new election because they're not doing that well considering they are currently the incumbent government very early into their term when they should be racking up popularity points.
00:05:44.220Because early into an administration, you're obviously going to be doing your most popular policies first.
00:05:51.180You're going to be pushing those ones in the House of Commons, making yourself seem more popular simply by doing the easy crowd-pleasing stuff first.
00:06:02.100The problem is, Carney didn't really promise much.
00:06:04.860And what he did promise he has not achieved because I'm not sure if you guys have noticed or not, we do not currently have a trade agreement signed with the United States.
00:06:14.860So, yeah, and that is exactly why you're seeing a shift back towards conservatives.
00:06:19.320Less a shift towards the conservatives, more so the conservatives across most of the pollsters have mostly just been maintaining either high 30s, 38, 39 percent, or even low 40s, 41, 42.
00:06:32.320Now, the liberals generally have the same polling, but again, why are they neck and neck with a party that they just beat in the last federal election and they are currently in the driver's seat to push forward policy to make themselves more popular?
00:06:47.320The thing is, the liberals are pretty underwhelming to a lot of Canadians, especially what I call business liberals, people who maybe are more socially liberal, but if the economy gets bad enough, they'll go vote for the conservatives.
00:06:59.680A lot of business liberals came back after they were really ticked off with Justin Trudeau and voted for Carney because he's the businessman, he's the economist, he's the former governor of the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England.
00:07:11.600And then when he delivers a tax cut that maybe saves the average family, you know, 400 and 500 bucks.
00:07:18.460And then also, what else was he doing? You know, blowing out the budget, not getting a trade deal signed, having billions and billions of dollars flood into the United States away from Canada.
00:07:31.960So much capital has left Canada and gone to the United States. Those people are not going to say, well, give them some time.
00:07:37.980They were promised a lot and those people are going to swing pretty fast away from the liberals because prior to Carney taking over for Trudeau, they were pretty dead set on not voting liberal.
00:07:47.480So they're not going to say, we'll give it another few years. They're already mad now.
00:07:52.200And that's why Carney has not seen a big bump since the election. He is still neck and neck with Polyev.
00:07:58.360But now I'm going to clear the board here and then I want to take you guys into some of the issue polling because this is where I actually think it really gets interesting.
00:08:06.860We're going to start off with what issues Canadians care most about and then we will get into on which issues, which party they trust more on.
00:08:14.440But let me clear this and then we will go through that. I think you will find it entertaining.
00:08:20.360Now, sorry if this kind of looks quick and dirty here. I can't actually put everything on the chart on the screen or on my whiteboard here.
00:08:28.740It's just a little bit too cluttered with it all. I will quickly, before we start writing anything down, show you what the Abacus data chart looks like.
00:08:35.920This is how they display it. And Abacus, I think, does a really good job of this, where they allow people to pick multiple top issues.
00:08:43.260Because let's be honest, most people, you can't boil them down to a single issue. People should be allowed to pick up to three.
00:08:49.880And again, this is a conservative pollster, not an ideology. The guy who runs it, David Coletto, I believe is more of a center-left guy.
00:08:57.680But the whole point is that their methodology and the way they do things tends to make for more consistent numbers over time.
00:09:03.780An Abacus data number from today is more likely to look the same next week when they do new polling than another pollster.
00:09:11.700That's not because they're manipulating anything. They just make sure to have a very consistent sample, depending on what people vote for last election, gender, all that stuff.
00:09:20.660But let's go through what Canadians' top issues are when they are allowed to pick three of them.
00:09:27.100So I'll just start from the top here. I'll use a slightly different color just for the sake of it, just so everything doesn't blend in with each other.
00:09:34.960Obviously, at the top here, we have the cost of... Why do I have it C-O-S? It should be C-O-L.
00:09:43.380Guys, I'm really stupid. We have the cost of living.
00:09:48.500Cost of living is naturally an issue that bothers pretty much everyone.
00:09:52.360So this one gets 62% with Canadians. That's how many people care about it.
00:13:39.580But now I want to go back and then race this board and go take you guys through the different issues and who Canadians trust the most on those particular issues.
00:13:49.940Because this is where it gets interesting.
00:13:52.260Because, yes, the Liberals do rank higher than the Conservatives on many of these issues.
00:13:57.760At the same time, their margins of, like, their victory margins on some of these issues are far smaller than the margins that the Conservatives win other issues on.
00:14:09.620That's a little bit of a confusing way of putting it.
00:14:11.380But you will get what I mean when I come back here in just a second.
00:14:15.620So we're just going to start off with these select issues on the board.
00:14:19.700And I may race them and bring a few others on.
00:14:21.720I want to talk about, like, immigration.
00:14:23.920But we're going to go through what Canadians, who Canadians think are the better party on these different issues.
00:14:29.880Because, again, this is demonstrating a big problem when it comes, like, for the Liberal government.
00:14:35.400On the cost of living, you know, the biggest issue in the country right now, the Conservatives are leading on this one with 42% of people thinking that they are best fit to handle this issue.
00:14:55.560The Conservatives are literally leading them on the biggest issue in Canada by plus 13%.
00:15:03.320Now, maybe that's a little unfair to the Liberals because the NDP had 9%.
00:15:07.900And maybe some of those NDP idealists may say the NDP is the best, but they'll settle for the Liberals.
00:15:14.300But still, even if you took 9% out of the Conservatives' lead and just gave 9% to the Liberals,
00:15:19.880they would still be underwater by four points.
00:15:22.360And some of those NDP people are, in fact, voting for them.
00:15:25.560When we go to the economic growth and jobs, this is one that the Liberals do, in fact, lead on.
00:15:31.540They are at 44% on basically economic growth and jobs.
00:15:37.160It's kind of a little contradictory that people support the Conservatives on cost of living.
00:15:41.680But on economic growth and jobs, they think the Liberals are better.
00:15:44.820But this is kind of the irrationality of a lot of voters.
00:15:47.280But again, notice that the Liberals are only leading here by, maybe I'll switch to using the actual color of the party leading instead of black.
00:17:55.400And I think the Conservatives were like 26% or something like that.
00:17:58.860So even then, on this issue that's a big issue for the Liberals, they have still fallen in Canadians' countenance of how good they are with it.
00:18:07.100But let's go to the opposite version of that issue, which is crime, where we have the Conservatives absolutely slaughtering the Liberals on this one, with 51% of people trusting them the most.
00:18:19.900Not as high as the Liberals on Trump, but the Liberals are also lower when it comes to crime at only 27%, meaning that, what is that, 3%, 20%, 24%, plus 24% lead for the Conservatives when it comes to crime.
00:18:36.480Okay, now, again, crime isn't the biggest rating issue for a lot of people.
00:18:42.440But in select parts of the country, Richmond, the GTA, Winnipeg, if you're really good on crime, that is going to give you benefits.
00:18:50.600Oftentimes, you will see issues where people wonder, like, well, you know, it's niche, who cares?
00:18:56.580Well, it might be a niche issue where not even 1% of Canadians care about it.
00:19:01.060But if you're in the particular place that it matters, like with forestry or fishing or certain farming issues, it pays massive dividends to be on the right side of it.
00:19:10.420But overall, the Liberals, where they are leading, like on the economy, they're leading with, like, a plus 3, or on healthcare, they lead with a plus 8.
00:19:18.160But cost of living, Conservatives lead with plus 13, and on crime, they lead with plus 24.
00:19:22.820Now, I'm just going to do a rough sort of scrubbing of the board here, so that we can talk about a few different issues, one of them being migration.
00:19:34.380I still want to write down immigration, so I'm calling it migration.
00:19:37.960Migration has become a massive issue for Canadians, considering back in the day, this would be like a single-digit type of polling issue for Canadians.
00:19:46.820Not many people would really care about it that much.
00:19:50.940And right now, on immigration, if I can find it on our chart here, yeah, on immigration, the Conservatives are literally rated at 59%.
00:20:02.76059% of people trust the Conservatives the most to handle immigration.
00:20:07.640The Liberals are only at 18% on that issue, which, if you can do the math, means that that is a plus 41% issue for the Conservative Party of Canada.
00:20:22.640This is why it was a fantastic pivot after the election for Kalev to go away from just saying that they want marginally lower immigration rates than the Liberals,
00:20:32.680to going full into saying that, no, we need net negative migration, which I think is an extremely reasonable policy.
00:20:40.460It allows you to still bring people in who have great skills that the country needs.
00:20:44.780At the same time, it's saying, but the outflow of TFWs, the outflow of people on student visas, the outflow of criminal or permanent residents and people exploiting the social service system,
00:20:55.580more of those people have to be leaving than new people coming in.
00:20:59.080We just can't handle it at this point.
00:21:01.800And then I wanted to bring in one more issue, and this is kind of a problem for Mark Carney.
00:21:06.760I want to do, it doesn't really matter, I'll just do, I guess I can do it in both.
00:21:14.780Enviro, and then we'll do, like, climate.
00:21:26.580Now, previously when I did this poll, and this is where the MOU was hurting the Liberals, the MOU was not going to build a pipeline.
00:21:33.900So Mark Carney's not buying himself a lot of votes out in the Alberta area.
00:21:38.640But he, but the thing is that, at the same time, business Liberals and a lot of other people don't really trust that he's going to build a pipeline because of all the excuse making he keeps making, and then giving all these vetoes to the government of British Columbia and to First Nations to kill a pipeline.
00:21:53.580The problem is the MOU still hurt him with the Green left.
00:21:58.040Previously, it was actually the Liberals who were leading on environment and climate change.
00:22:04.080And you will not be shocked to hear on one of these.
00:22:06.320In fact, the Green Party is now leading with 33% of people thinking they are best on the climate and 29% on the environment in general.
00:22:16.400So, like, that's more like environmental stewardship, and this is the climate.
00:22:19.980Now, conservative voters are not climate voters, so this almost does not matter at all.
00:22:24.900But the Liberals on both of these issues are at 31%.
00:22:30.420They are leading the Greens on environment, but they're falling behind them on climate.
00:22:35.560And I don't even need to show you the other numbers here.
00:22:37.900You know, you get the Conservatives around, like, you know, 14%, 20% on one of these, and the NDPs around 10% and 8%.
00:22:45.220But the problem is that even on these more niche issues that usually the Liberals rely on for a few extra votes over the Conservatives in certain select areas around the GTA,
00:22:55.640there are certain people who are Green Liberals who will show up for the Liberals to stop those dirty pro-oil Conservatives.
00:23:03.400But because Carney signed an MOU, the Greens are now beating him on that issue,
00:23:07.440and they may no longer show up for Carney because he's a dirty pro-oil and gas Liberal,
00:23:12.680although he's never actually going to build a pipeline, so Carney's facing the worst of both worlds.
00:23:18.040He's the guy who's not going to build a pipeline.
00:23:20.160At the same time, he is ticking off the Green Left, represented by people like Stephen Gilbeau,
00:23:24.920who left his cabinet over the MOU, which, I'm going to remind you, again, I only said it five seconds ago,
00:23:30.740is not actually going to result in a pipeline being built.
00:23:34.400It's crazy talents in the Liberal world right now.
00:23:37.380But overall, again, as you go through it, immigration, a really big issue for Canadians.
00:23:42.160It's a 41% lead, a 13% lead on the cost of living, a massive lead, 24% on crime.