The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 24, 2025


Liberals in BIG trouble in new polls - Canadians regret not voting Conservative!


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Length

19 minutes

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165.0937

Word count

3,242

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158

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, we look at how things have shifted in the polls over the past week and a half, and how the momentum has shifted from the Liberals to the Tories. We also look at the most recent numbers from Nanos and Angus Reid.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.240 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back yet again to talk about the current state of national polls in Canada.
00:00:08.280 We have just had Parliament reconvene, and like I had been predicting, by the time that Parliament was back into session,
00:00:16.740 Mark Carney and the Liberals were going to be past their honeymoon period.
00:00:20.920 It ended probably two or three months sooner than it would normally do for another government,
00:00:26.820 but the Liberal government has been making so many mistakes over the summer
00:00:31.820 that inevitably Canadians were going to stop having this artificial feeling of positivity
00:00:38.400 because, hey, it's a new government, let's give them a chance.
00:00:43.040 People are kind of past that, it doesn't mean that they are suffering in the polls and down 20 points like Justin Trudeau was,
00:00:50.480 but people are more realistically grading how they're doing these days,
00:00:54.960 and that's why we're seeing pollsters who lean heavily Liberal showing it get pretty close with the Conservatives,
00:01:02.060 as well as other pollsters showing the Conservatives taking the lead.
00:01:06.140 That's not just Abacus Data anymore, that is also the Angus Reid Institute
00:01:11.040 who has had now two polls in a row where the Conservatives are leading the Liberals.
00:01:17.140 But before I get into the Angus Reid numbers that I want to discuss,
00:01:21.260 I also want to talk about the Nanos numbers.
00:01:24.960 Now, I don't even like Nanos as a pollster.
00:01:27.940 I find their between-election methodology tends to be quite lazy,
00:01:32.220 which means their polls tend to lean quite heavily Liberal.
00:01:36.120 But even in a poll like that, you can still see a massive momentum shift
00:01:41.400 from the Liberals towards the Conservatives.
00:01:44.440 But before we get deeper into the numbers, guys, I just want to remind you,
00:01:49.780 hey, if you like this show, make sure to leave a like on this video,
00:01:53.240 subscribe to the channel if you want to see more videos like this,
00:01:57.020 and also leave a comment on what you think.
00:01:59.640 It helps us on the algorithm, and I do like scrolling through on my off time
00:02:03.420 and seeing what people say about what's going on.
00:02:06.540 But I want to go back to a few of the older Nanos polls
00:02:11.360 to show you guys how things have shifted.
00:02:14.680 So they actually tend to pull the most out of all the pollsters these days.
00:02:19.000 They will release new numbers every week or so,
00:02:22.040 or even sometimes, like twice a week, they will have new numbers out.
00:02:26.340 But I want to go back, not very far, but to August 5th.
00:02:32.520 August, actually not August, August 29th,
00:02:36.160 and then we're going to go to September 5th next.
00:02:38.280 But back on August 29th, what we ended up seeing in the polls back then
00:02:47.060 was we had Nanos showing the Liberals at 43% of the vote,
00:02:55.340 and we had the Conservatives all the way down at just 32%.
00:03:02.220 And then after that, once we get to September 5th,
00:03:07.640 saying it right this time,
00:03:09.700 we then had a little bit of a shift
00:03:12.660 to the Liberals still having 43% of the vote,
00:03:18.180 but the Conservatives went up to 33%.
00:03:24.060 Now, this is shortly after, or this is in the aftermath of the Air Canada fiasco.
00:03:30.340 But let's go a little bit further.
00:03:33.080 So now we're on September 12th,
00:03:37.260 and on September 12th, we have the Liberals falling 1.242%,
00:03:43.620 and the Conservatives jumping up to 35%.
00:03:48.340 So they've gained two, the Liberals have lost one.
00:03:52.320 And now, in the final day we will look at,
00:03:55.660 we will look at the most recent numbers,
00:03:57.860 which are on September 19th.
00:04:01.720 This is basically after a week of Parliament being back in session,
00:04:06.240 and now we have the Liberals falling an extra point down to 41%,
00:04:10.340 and the Conservatives now being at 36%.
00:04:16.340 Now, we're actually getting into more realistic numbers here from Nanos,
00:04:21.520 because previously they had been showing the Liberals leading by 15 points post-election,
00:04:28.040 13 points, 14 points.
00:04:30.280 Now, even here, they're still at 11.
00:04:32.520 So they went from plus 11 back here,
00:04:37.040 which is a very good lead for the Liberals, nationally speaking, of course,
00:04:42.060 and then we go to September 19th,
00:04:45.840 where now the Conservatives are only behind,
00:04:49.080 the Liberals are leading, by 5 points.
00:04:52.780 So since then, we have had more than half of the Liberal lead diminish,
00:04:58.080 and it's gone down by negative 6.
00:05:00.420 So naturally, the Conservatives are very happy with the big momentum shift that has happened,
00:05:06.440 and this is a result of the death of 1,000 cuts
00:05:10.100 that the Mark Carney Liberals are currently going through.
00:05:12.880 They can pull out of it.
00:05:14.200 Obviously, if they just start passing popular legislation,
00:05:18.400 if they actually start, you know, getting their act together,
00:05:20.800 as if that will ever happen, it could reverse.
00:05:23.860 Now, I don't think it's going to happen,
00:05:25.900 but they could kick out of this thing.
00:05:28.180 And, but, this is just Nanos.
00:05:31.760 Nanos, again, has a very liberal methodology between elections.
00:05:36.980 It's kind of a strange concept.
00:05:39.540 Nanos is actually a very good pollster during elections,
00:05:42.960 but between elections, they go to a cheaper form of polling
00:05:46.440 that means that they're more likely to get people living in urban areas.
00:05:50.640 If it's a live phone poll,
00:05:52.740 naturally, a farmer is not going to pick up the phone
00:05:54.940 and then sit through a five-minute survey.
00:05:57.300 They're just going to pick up the phone,
00:05:59.300 hear someone talking,
00:06:00.360 hey, would you like to take it,
00:06:01.480 and then they're just going to click.
00:06:02.900 It actually tends to be easier to get working-class people,
00:06:06.880 farmers, or more conservative types to take a poll
00:06:09.800 when it's one of those IVR polls where it's a robotic voice
00:06:12.640 and it lets you just hit your button and go within 30 seconds.
00:06:15.820 When it's a live phone poll,
00:06:17.280 they have to give you a lot more stipulations and whatnot,
00:06:19.580 so people click off.
00:06:21.960 And even with that methodology,
00:06:23.960 conservatives are not doing too bad,
00:06:25.840 at least compared to how they were doing
00:06:27.860 just less than a month ago from the 29th to the 19th.
00:06:33.060 Just 20 days ago, just 22 days ago or so,
00:06:36.280 the conservatives were getting murdered,
00:06:38.120 and now it's actually kind of competitive.
00:06:40.760 But now I want to jump over to the Angus Reid poll,
00:06:44.340 and I want to show you some of the regionals.
00:06:46.280 We haven't actually really done regionals on the show yet,
00:06:49.360 and I want to go over the bright spots currently
00:06:52.100 for the conservatives in the major regions
00:06:54.420 that they need to secure in order to win the next election.
00:06:58.060 Anyways, I'm going to clear the board,
00:06:59.500 and then we will be back in just a second.
00:07:04.260 And we're back.
00:07:06.060 Forgive me for the chart kind of angling up.
00:07:08.580 It's just the way that I positioned the board.
00:07:10.600 You'll get over it.
00:07:12.180 So this is the current national numbers for Angus Reid.
00:07:16.020 We have the conservatives leading by three points right now,
00:07:20.320 which is only up by one since the last time that they did a poll.
00:07:25.780 But still, generally speaking,
00:07:27.780 I think the conservatives will be happy with any lead right now,
00:07:31.400 considering how bad the polls were to them
00:07:33.840 just a couple of months ago.
00:07:36.000 Two months ago, we were maybe sitting with Abacus data,
00:07:39.820 showing you reasonably competitive numbers
00:07:42.100 where they were within two points.
00:07:43.620 And then the rest of the polls,
00:07:45.400 the conservatives were down five, down seven, down 14.
00:07:49.460 And now, again, like we just showed with Nanos,
00:07:52.140 they are only five behind a pollster
00:07:54.460 that used to say 14 or 15 behind,
00:07:57.180 which indeed is a big improvement.
00:08:00.300 But we will just go party to party here.
00:08:03.040 The liberals are currently sitting at 38%,
00:08:06.700 conservatives 41%, NDP 10%.
00:08:09.620 We have two for the Green Party,
00:08:12.760 and we have eight right now for the Bloc Quebecois.
00:08:17.340 And I do just want to quickly bring up
00:08:19.560 where this will put us for the seat count.
00:08:22.360 I'm specifically using Shrey Attiste,
00:08:24.940 who I will show on screen in just a second here.
00:08:27.180 I think he does a fantastic job
00:08:29.080 when it comes to polling analysis.
00:08:31.900 He does a lot of the seat projections.
00:08:33.280 And even though the guy is literally
00:08:35.640 just out of grade 11,
00:08:37.320 or I think he's just starting grade 11,
00:08:39.920 or he's just finished it,
00:08:41.200 now he's going into grade 12,
00:08:42.880 easily one of the most accurate people is him,
00:08:45.740 as well as the great Canadian bagel,
00:08:47.880 who are quite good.
00:08:49.020 So I'm using his analysis
00:08:50.380 because he was quite close
00:08:52.220 on the actual federal election.
00:08:54.440 As you can see him right there,
00:08:56.100 I will be plugging his account
00:08:57.520 in the description below.
00:08:59.540 So right now, we have the Conservatives
00:09:02.100 with 157 seats with this result.
00:09:07.680 The Liberals, let's just use Black 1.00
00:09:09.480 to make it easier not having to switch.
00:09:11.320 We have them with 137.
00:09:14.240 NDP would gain seats and be at 11.
00:09:17.600 The Green Party would have two seats,
00:09:19.980 which is a gain of one.
00:09:21.440 And the Bloc Quebecois would be at 36 seats,
00:09:25.480 which actually would be a gain of 14 for them.
00:09:28.200 This would be a loss.
00:09:30.300 Let's make sure I'm still writing this on screen.
00:09:32.880 Oh, it wouldn't be.
00:09:33.840 That would be, for the Liberals,
00:09:36.540 a loss of actually 32 seats there.
00:09:42.220 Now, the big area that the Liberals
00:09:45.560 are losing support in the fastest,
00:09:47.920 not that hard to guess,
00:09:49.560 it is the province of Ontario.
00:09:52.280 Now, if you actually remember back
00:09:54.360 during the federal election,
00:09:55.860 it wasn't like this was a big victory
00:09:58.840 for the Liberals,
00:09:59.660 where they blew out the Conservatives,
00:10:01.440 but they were just a vote or two short
00:10:03.280 of a majority.
00:10:04.600 They were close to a majority,
00:10:06.400 no doubt about that,
00:10:07.780 but they were actually very close
00:10:09.760 in all the ridings that they won
00:10:11.380 in order to secure a minority government.
00:10:14.000 In fact, the Conservatives
00:10:15.540 were only 82 votes behind
00:10:17.980 getting a minority government themselves,
00:10:21.280 82 votes within the closest ridings.
00:10:23.960 You took the margin of difference
00:10:25.980 between the Liberals and Conservatives,
00:10:27.820 where the Conservatives would need
00:10:29.160 to win for a minority government.
00:10:30.760 It was only 8,200 votes collectively,
00:10:33.300 which is at least super, super tight.
00:10:36.400 And even then,
00:10:37.280 they only ended up winning
00:10:38.440 an extra seat from the bloc
00:10:40.040 because terrible,
00:10:41.100 they just decided,
00:10:42.240 who cares about election integrity?
00:10:44.340 Yeah, the Liberal won by one vote
00:10:46.000 because elections can't have messed up
00:10:47.600 massively with mail-in ballots,
00:10:49.140 but, you know,
00:10:50.180 what's a bit of incompetence
00:10:52.020 between friends that happens
00:10:53.400 to get the Liberals the seat.
00:10:55.240 So in just a second here,
00:10:56.380 I'm going to clear the board again,
00:10:57.640 and then we will be back
00:10:58.800 talking about how the Conservatives
00:11:01.340 and Liberals are faring right now
00:11:03.000 in the province of Ontario.
00:11:04.720 Obviously, I will also be adding
00:11:06.260 in the NDP as well,
00:11:08.380 but I will see you guys back
00:11:09.540 in just a second.
00:11:12.160 Okay, so we're back once again,
00:11:14.300 and now I want to break down
00:11:16.120 the current Angus Reid numbers
00:11:18.060 for the province of Ontario
00:11:19.680 compared to the percentages of the vote
00:11:22.640 that we saw in the April general election.
00:11:26.340 So right now,
00:11:27.640 in the Angus Reid poll,
00:11:29.560 we'll start off with that one.
00:11:31.520 We had the Conservatives running with,
00:11:34.940 we now have the Conservatives behind,
00:11:37.680 but catching up,
00:11:38.460 with the Liberals having 44% of the vote
00:11:42.400 and the Conservatives having 42%.
00:11:47.040 Now, naturally,
00:11:49.080 one would maybe assume
00:11:50.340 a plus two Liberal victory
00:11:52.800 in the province of Ontario
00:11:54.620 would generally mean like,
00:11:56.720 okay, well,
00:11:57.440 can the Conservatives even win
00:11:58.700 the biggest province
00:11:59.560 the Liberals are leading?
00:12:01.200 The problem, though,
00:12:02.300 is obviously,
00:12:03.180 for a Liberal party to win,
00:12:05.200 it really needs to run up the score
00:12:07.240 in large, populous urban areas
00:12:10.020 like Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver.
00:12:13.560 You get the picture.
00:12:15.000 And the thing is,
00:12:15.700 when it's that tight,
00:12:16.680 this is basically saying
00:12:17.880 the only thing the Liberals
00:12:19.040 are really winning is Toronto.
00:12:20.800 This would be the Conservatives
00:12:22.160 getting into other areas of the GTA.
00:12:25.500 And to benchmark this thing a little bit,
00:12:27.680 we currently have also the NDP
00:12:30.480 with 10% in Ontario
00:12:33.520 in this Angus Reid poll.
00:12:36.000 And so with all that,
00:12:37.900 I want to now show you
00:12:39.300 the 2025 results
00:12:41.460 on the other side here
00:12:43.280 because the Liberal win in 2025
00:12:46.180 was far bigger than this.
00:12:48.800 In the election in April,
00:12:51.020 we had the Liberals getting 49% of the vote
00:12:55.120 and we had the Conservatives
00:12:57.020 getting 43.8%.
00:13:02.760 Now, the Conservatives
00:13:04.460 are still doing better
00:13:05.720 in the last election
00:13:06.880 than they are doing in this poll,
00:13:08.540 but all the numbers
00:13:09.860 are always relative.
00:13:11.220 Are you beating the other parties
00:13:12.600 is really the thing
00:13:13.740 that you want to see.
00:13:15.060 And in the election,
00:13:16.320 back in April,
00:13:17.660 we effectively saw,
00:13:19.400 we actually literally saw,
00:13:21.140 the Liberals win
00:13:22.420 by, what is this,
00:13:24.340 5.2%.
00:13:26.420 They have a 5.2% win
00:13:28.880 and now it's down
00:13:29.700 to a 2% victory.
00:13:31.120 And a big problem as well
00:13:33.320 is in Ontario,
00:13:35.820 the NDP in the general election
00:13:38.120 had only gotten 4.9%.
00:13:42.040 So them doubling their vote
00:13:44.060 immediately puts the NDP
00:13:45.900 back into play
00:13:47.240 in many of the ridings
00:13:48.840 that they had lost
00:13:49.720 to the Liberals.
00:13:51.460 Not to the Conservatives.
00:13:52.700 I believe with this,
00:13:54.420 the Liberals would,
00:13:55.280 or the Conservatives
00:13:55.960 would still be holding
00:13:57.000 onto ridings
00:13:57.720 like Hamilton East,
00:13:59.700 like the Windsor ridings
00:14:00.820 because their vote
00:14:01.640 is pretty much stable.
00:14:03.480 The one that is falling here
00:14:04.900 is the Liberals.
00:14:06.160 They effectively fall
00:14:07.220 by five points
00:14:08.100 and surprise, surprise,
00:14:09.440 we see the NDP
00:14:10.440 gain five points.
00:14:12.900 So what we,
00:14:13.560 and this is probably
00:14:14.300 a direct result
00:14:15.340 of what we've seen
00:14:16.560 with the Air Canada fiasco.
00:14:19.120 The Liberals
00:14:19.840 with their newly required
00:14:21.640 public sector union base
00:14:23.200 because of Jagmeet Singh's
00:14:24.500 competence have now
00:14:25.660 ticked those same people off
00:14:27.020 who decided to switch
00:14:28.120 from Singh's NDP
00:14:29.100 to the Federal Conservatives
00:14:30.840 under Carney.
00:14:31.880 And now those people
00:14:33.100 are going to go
00:14:33.900 from Carney's Liberals
00:14:35.120 back to Don Davies' NDP.
00:14:37.940 And they haven't had
00:14:38.960 these voters for very long.
00:14:40.200 It wasn't like
00:14:40.760 there was a loyalty
00:14:41.760 being built up
00:14:42.740 and, you know,
00:14:43.180 maybe they'll still
00:14:43.880 go vote Liberal.
00:14:45.080 They were giving
00:14:45.960 the Liberals a chance
00:14:47.060 and then the Liberals
00:14:48.000 immediately slapped them
00:14:48.820 on the nose
00:14:49.340 and they were off
00:14:50.220 back to their old party.
00:14:51.860 So yes,
00:14:52.760 this is a very bad thing
00:14:54.340 right now
00:14:54.800 for the Liberals.
00:14:56.500 And in other provinces,
00:14:58.460 the story is the same.
00:15:00.000 I'm just going to bring
00:15:00.580 this up on screen
00:15:01.460 so you can get
00:15:02.180 the context
00:15:03.120 I'm working with here.
00:15:05.660 I'm not going to write
00:15:06.640 anything else
00:15:07.140 on the board,
00:15:08.140 but right now
00:15:08.940 this Angus Reid poll
00:15:09.920 shows a lead
00:15:11.720 for the Conservatives
00:15:12.560 of 8%
00:15:13.800 or that's very 6%
00:15:15.380 in British Columbia.
00:15:17.500 Now,
00:15:18.000 in the actual election,
00:15:19.460 the Conservatives
00:15:20.060 actually lost
00:15:20.800 by 0.8%
00:15:21.880 to the Liberals.
00:15:22.640 It ended 41%
00:15:23.960 for the Conservatives,
00:15:25.360 41.8%
00:15:26.500 for the Liberals,
00:15:27.680 and the NDP
00:15:28.620 got 13%.
00:15:29.940 So now,
00:15:31.100 again,
00:15:31.860 we see the Conservatives
00:15:33.080 effectively maintaining
00:15:34.500 their support.
00:15:35.300 They gained one point
00:15:36.140 since the election
00:15:36.840 and the NDP
00:15:38.140 ends up gaining
00:15:39.380 three points
00:15:40.020 and the Liberals
00:15:40.840 end up losing
00:15:41.700 to both of those parties.
00:15:43.540 They lost a point
00:15:44.260 to the Conservatives
00:15:45.800 and then they lost
00:15:46.540 three more points
00:15:47.600 to the NDP
00:15:48.940 and one as well
00:15:50.320 to the Greens.
00:15:51.860 So,
00:15:52.300 all around,
00:15:53.160 this is quite good
00:15:53.980 for the Conservatives.
00:15:55.260 Let's find another one here.
00:15:58.780 Out in Atlantic Canada,
00:16:01.820 we have the Conservatives
00:16:03.100 here.
00:16:03.440 This actually may be
00:16:04.100 a bit of an underpull
00:16:05.060 for them
00:16:05.480 just because it's hard to...
00:16:07.580 Oh yeah,
00:16:07.940 we can't really do this one
00:16:08.820 because they don't do
00:16:09.300 a conglomeration
00:16:10.260 of Atlantic Canada
00:16:12.340 within the Wikipedia page
00:16:13.980 for the results,
00:16:15.020 but that's what
00:16:15.580 we have to work with.
00:16:16.440 In general though,
00:16:18.020 Conservatives maintaining,
00:16:20.020 Liberals are losing
00:16:21.020 and they're losing
00:16:21.900 to their left's flank.
00:16:23.840 Now,
00:16:24.060 it'd be great
00:16:24.680 if the Conservatives
00:16:25.400 were taking votes
00:16:26.340 away from the Liberals
00:16:27.260 and expanding their lead
00:16:28.740 that way
00:16:29.300 because it's a bigger swing,
00:16:31.160 but if the Liberals
00:16:32.240 are bleeding out,
00:16:33.000 I think Pierre Polyev
00:16:33.980 and the Conservatives
00:16:34.720 are going to be
00:16:35.340 completely satisfied
00:16:37.100 with that.
00:16:38.120 And again,
00:16:38.700 we look at the news cycle
00:16:39.900 and this is why polling
00:16:41.060 is actually something
00:16:42.520 good to look into.
00:16:43.560 I know a lot of people
00:16:44.120 are saying,
00:16:44.520 well,
00:16:44.600 we're three years away
00:16:45.440 from the election,
00:16:46.000 who cares?
00:16:46.440 Some pollsters are off,
00:16:47.940 like I don't trust
00:16:48.820 Nanos' numbers
00:16:49.660 and neither do I.
00:16:51.220 I don't trust Nanos' numbers,
00:16:52.820 you shouldn't either,
00:16:53.880 but I can still look
00:16:54.820 at their polls
00:16:55.380 to see that even
00:16:56.640 a very liberal
00:16:57.580 leading pollster
00:16:58.380 is showing a momentum
00:16:59.980 shift to the other side.
00:17:02.280 And what this also teaches you
00:17:03.740 is when things happen
00:17:05.200 in Canadian politics,
00:17:06.520 where are people moving?
00:17:07.840 Who's reacting?
00:17:09.160 So if you were ever
00:17:10.100 running a campaign
00:17:10.980 or you were trying
00:17:12.140 to basically figure out
00:17:13.480 something that happens
00:17:16.400 and you're trying to figure
00:17:17.000 out what the effect
00:17:17.600 is going to be,
00:17:18.460 we're starting
00:17:18.840 to notice patterns.
00:17:20.180 More labor strikes
00:17:21.180 are going to see
00:17:22.040 bigger transfers
00:17:22.920 back towards the NDP.
00:17:24.820 We have deficit spending,
00:17:26.940 we have a lot of issues
00:17:28.280 around the budget
00:17:29.460 not being put out.
00:17:30.600 You're probably going
00:17:31.300 to see a minor move
00:17:32.540 towards the conservatives
00:17:35.300 in the national numbers.
00:17:37.660 And so right now,
00:17:38.960 Mark Carney,
00:17:39.700 with frankly no real
00:17:41.240 big policy wins
00:17:42.360 on the horizon,
00:17:43.700 is going to probably
00:17:44.600 be turtling up
00:17:45.460 and not wanting
00:17:46.180 a new election
00:17:46.900 anytime soon.
00:17:48.160 And I think the election
00:17:49.140 at this point
00:17:49.820 kind of rests on
00:17:50.760 who ends up becoming
00:17:51.640 the federal NDP leader.
00:17:53.680 Because the Bloc Québécois
00:17:55.080 and the NDP
00:17:56.080 are greatly incentivized
00:17:58.060 to want to actually
00:18:00.060 gain seats like we saw
00:18:01.420 in that seat projection
00:18:02.680 from Sheree Attiste.
00:18:04.260 I think if Heather McPherson
00:18:05.600 becomes the new NDP leader,
00:18:07.720 she will call an election
00:18:08.720 if she smells blood
00:18:09.640 in the water.
00:18:10.460 And I think that's
00:18:11.620 pretty much the same
00:18:12.360 with Yves-Francois Blanchet
00:18:13.880 leading the Bloc Québécois.
00:18:15.780 Both parties,
00:18:16.880 really any political party's
00:18:18.620 job is to gain power.
00:18:20.640 It doesn't matter
00:18:21.460 if the conservatives
00:18:22.480 gain government,
00:18:23.240 it doesn't matter
00:18:23.600 if the liberals
00:18:24.040 keep government,
00:18:25.020 you want an election
00:18:25.980 whenever it allows you
00:18:27.020 to take your seven seats
00:18:28.160 as the NDP
00:18:28.740 and turn it into 24.
00:18:30.660 To take your,
00:18:31.640 I think it's 24 seats
00:18:32.620 right now as the Bloc 0.65
00:18:33.320 and turn it into 34.
00:18:35.600 You are only ever
00:18:37.020 trying to make
00:18:37.860 your party
00:18:38.700 bigger in parliament.
00:18:40.400 If you try
00:18:41.080 and do politics
00:18:41.860 for any other reason,
00:18:43.180 you will lose.
00:18:44.320 It doesn't matter
00:18:44.780 if you're a small party
00:18:45.700 or a big party,
00:18:46.960 you do things
00:18:47.700 to gain seats.
00:18:49.440 Obviously,
00:18:49.960 I'd hope
00:18:50.340 if you're conservative,
00:18:51.380 you're doing
00:18:51.740 principled things,
00:18:53.140 but naturally,
00:18:54.260 the sort of
00:18:54.940 tug-of-war
00:18:55.500 inside parties
00:18:56.400 is doing the thing
00:18:57.620 that may get you a seat
00:18:58.800 or doing the harder thing
00:18:59.820 that may not get you a seat,
00:19:01.060 but it's what pleases
00:19:01.860 your base.
00:19:02.800 The good thing,
00:19:03.380 though,
00:19:03.520 is I find
00:19:04.000 it tends to be
00:19:04.960 the things that
00:19:05.440 please your base
00:19:06.020 that also gets you
00:19:06.820 more seats,
00:19:07.780 but you'll always
00:19:08.640 have strategists out there
00:19:09.680 who can convince
00:19:10.380 themselves of the opposite
00:19:11.720 as if your party exists
00:19:13.560 not to actually fulfill
00:19:14.780 the things the base wants,
00:19:16.100 but to betray the base
00:19:17.220 and try and find weird
00:19:18.640 in-between voters
00:19:19.640 who don't like the liberals
00:19:20.560 or conservatives,
00:19:21.400 but if you water yourself
00:19:22.240 down enough,
00:19:23.000 then they may cast
00:19:23.840 a ballot for you.
00:19:24.900 Never chase those people.
00:19:26.480 They are not worth it.
00:19:27.940 Anyways,
00:19:28.560 so that should be it
00:19:29.680 for this video, guys.
00:19:30.700 Thank you for watching
00:19:31.680 and tuning back
00:19:32.820 into me,
00:19:33.940 Wyatt Claypool,
00:19:34.740 rambling about the numbers.
00:19:36.200 I will see you guys
00:19:37.120 all next time.