00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome back to the National Telegraph YouTube channel.
00:00:06.580So, a bunch of nonsense is going to happen all over again, because Prime Minister Mark Carney's
00:00:12.860Liberal government is about to lose two Liberal MPs, and we are going to have another three
00:00:18.940by-elections this summer that could determine whether or not the Liberals will actually have
00:00:24.360a majority come the fall. So let's just get right into it and not do any annoying intro stuff.
00:00:31.600The person who announced today that they will be stepping down sometime in later June is Jonathan
00:00:37.860Wilkinson, who has been representing the riding of North Vancouver Capilano since 2015. That's what
00:00:45.060the riding is currently called. It's been called other things previously, but the boundaries are
00:00:49.780pretty much the same that they've always been. But Jonathan is now saying that he is going to become
00:00:55.940Canada's ambassador to the European Union. He specifically states here,
00:01:00.680Today I've accepted the Prime Minister's invitation to serve as Canada's ambassador to the European
00:01:06.060Union. I take on this role for the same reason I entered public life, to serve Canada. Thank you
00:01:11.880for your trust, your candor, and your belief that we can always do better. Now, I don't actually
00:01:17.440believe. The Prime Minister invited him to go become the ambassador to the European Union.
00:01:22.120It's probably that Jonathan Wilkinson and Mark Carney do not like each other, just like Christy
00:01:27.160Freeland and Mark Carney do not like each other. And so he is going to go find work elsewhere.
00:01:32.860Also, whenever a person says, oh, I got into politics to serve Canada, it's like,
00:01:38.160no, you didn't. Even politicians I like, they didn't get into it to serve Canada or to serve
00:01:43.820Canadians. They have specific interests that they want to serve. And I don't mean that from
00:01:48.040a nefarious perspective. If you're, let's say, like myself, a fiscal hawk, a social and cultural
00:01:54.640conservative, you are getting into politics to try and bring those values into Canada's government.
00:02:00.660Now, some people have sleazier motivations for getting into politics. They want, you know,
00:02:04.660the adulation. They want the attention. You know, some are hyper-progressives and they want to bring
00:02:08.760hyper-progressive Marxism into government. Nobody gets into politics because I want to serve
00:02:13.740Canada. You know, I think there are some people who want to live up to a patriotic ideal, but
00:02:18.100that's not like the reason you got in. There's many reasons, and maybe patriotism is somewhere
00:02:23.080on the list, but goodness, I just hate the kind of boilerplate so many politicians use in this
00:02:28.320country. Now, the problem for Mark Carney and the Liberals is that this writing and another writing
00:02:34.760that we're going to be talking about in just a bit are actually winnable for the Conservatives.
00:02:40.840This was the 2025 election results for North Vancouver Capilano.
00:02:48.400Jonathan Wilkinson took 59.83% of the vote.
00:02:52.560The Conservatives, Stephen Curran, got 33.6% and DP got 4.24%.
00:02:57.880But that was a massive underperformance compared to what they usually do.
00:03:01.660Greens got 1.7%. People's Party got 0.4%.
00:03:04.840But the problem is, even though that's a really healthy margin for Jonathan Wilkinson,
00:03:10.400I believe that that is a margin that only will show up for Jonathan Wilkinson doesn't mean a liberal will not win it in a by-election. What I'm saying is that a very popular individual, whether you and I actually like them or not, you know, I don't like Jonathan Wilkinson, but there's a certain type of liberal curious voter who likes Jonathan Wilkinson, someone who, you know, definitely the base of the liberal party liked him.
00:03:35.400There's probably some new Democrats who liked him, and there's probably some people who previously voted conservative who liked the cut of Jonathan Wilkinson's, you know, jib.
00:03:44.460But the problem is, if Jonathan Wilkinson isn't around anymore, is it going to be more of a swing riding again?
00:03:51.500So I'm just going to go through the election results for Jonathan Wilkinson since 2015, and we'll go a little bit further back then.
00:03:59.320So in 2021, he had 45% of the vote, and his conservative opponent had only 28%.
00:04:05.120really embarrassing for the conservatives. But again, I think it's just that Jonathan Wilkinson
00:04:09.640is quite popular, and it would have been tough for anyone to beat him. In 2019, he got 42% of
00:04:15.460the vote. The conservative previous MP ran again. Andrew Saxton only got 26% of the vote. In 2015
00:04:22.580was the first time that Jonathan Wilkinson took the seat and won it from Andrew Saxton,
00:04:26.620and he got 56% of the vote that last time. But as I'm indicating here, Jonathan Saxton in 2011
00:04:33.620won it with 48% of the vote. And Tlaib Nur Muhammad, who's now, I believe, the MP for
00:04:39.720Vancouver Center, or it's not Vancouver Center, it might be like Vancouver, whatever. It's not
00:04:45.300Quadra, that's Wade Grant. But he's a current liberal MP, more downtown-ish Vancouver. Tlaib
00:04:51.780Nur Muhammad ran against Andrew Saxton in 2011 and got beaten 48 to 29. And before that, Andrew
00:04:58.520Saxton won it in a much tighter election in 2008, and he got it from Don Bell, the previous MP,
00:05:04.98042 to 37. Don Bell had held the riding for two terms, and before that, it was Ted White who won
00:05:11.460it for the Alliance Party, but also had won it both times that reform ran in 1993 and 1997.
00:05:20.840This is to say, this isn't liberal territory. With Jonathan Wilkinson, it's liberal territory,
00:05:26.800but there are many ridings throughout Canada that unless a specific person ran, that party's not
00:05:33.060going to do nearly as well. If Elizabeth May steps down in Saanich and the islands, the Green Party's
00:05:39.180probably not holding on to that riding. There are other ridings around the country, like one of the0.95
00:05:44.320ridings that we're going to be talking about that's going to have a by-election. I forget what his
00:05:48.540name is Alexander Andre, the one NDP MP that was left in all of Quebec. In the by-election,
00:05:56.920I'm not sure if the NDP hold on to that. He was just personally popular, and now he's going into
00:06:01.180Quebec provincial politics. And even though the Quebec Solidaire Party isn't that popular overall
00:06:06.200in Quebec, he's going to be able to easily win a seat for the Quebec Solidaire Party because he
00:06:11.860just brings that personal magnetism to the races. That's what Jonathan Wilkinson brought into this
00:06:17.080riding. And I think now what we are going to see is that it's going to become a competitive swing
00:06:23.060riding again. And Avi Lewis, the new the new NDP leader, is from the lower mainland. He's a
00:06:30.100Vancouverite. Even if he's not going to run as the candidate, and he's already confirmed that I
00:06:35.440should bring this up now on X. So Rob Shaw here reports, NDP leader Avi Lewis says he will not
00:06:43.940run in the by-election to replace Wilkinson in North Vancouver, Cavillano, says we'll leave the
00:06:48.460House of Commons, work for five MPs, and spend his time traveling the country to get other ridings
00:06:53.180ready and raise money for the next election. Now, some people are calling coward at Avi Lewis.
00:06:58.540I don't like Avi Lewis, so I'm not one to give the man a compliment or make excuses for him for
00:07:03.040no reason. He's not a coward. They just don't have the ground really set for him to run here.
00:07:09.460Maybe he could win, maybe he couldn't.
00:07:11.300If he doesn't win, he's an embarrassment and the party starts really hurting.
00:07:15.420But there's another by-election that's going to happen that's far better for him
00:07:19.760that we will be getting to in just a bit.
00:07:21.640I actually just quickly want to take you guys through some clips of Jonathan Wilkinson
00:07:27.080on CTV News Power Play, sort of talking about politics as he's leaving.
00:07:32.180Right here, this is not the best thing for Jonathan Wilkinson to say on his way out for
00:07:37.740Mark Carney, again, probably because he doesn't like Carney and he's not playing along with the
00:07:41.580narrative, you know, in Carney's pro-pipeline narrative about himself. Is Carney actually
00:07:46.560pro-pipeline? No, he just pretends to be, just as people pretend to be doctors on television,
00:07:51.720Mark Carney pretends to be pro-pipeline as prime minister. Jonathan Wilkinson is somebody who
00:07:56.080has always been opposing a pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast, is saying that he doesn't
00:08:00.860actually believe that Carney's going to build the pipeline. As I say, I know the prime minister
00:08:05.080and i know his commitment to climate action and i would also say um he has a view that it's very
00:08:10.520important that we find a way to bring alberta along with us in this conversation um and and
00:08:16.440while i know there are some folks who have raised concerns with respect to some elements of the mou
00:08:20.440with alberta part of what that's about is getting alberta to buy into an industrial carbon price
00:08:24.680that's actually going to be effective to move forward on carbon capture and sequestration that
00:08:28.840allow us to reduce emissions in the oil and gas sector in Alberta. So I do think that there are
00:08:36.200different ways to go about addressing the climate issue. But at my heart, I believe that the Prime
00:08:43.240Minister is committed to this. I just do. Now, what the cat that Mr. Wilkinson just let out of
00:08:48.560the bag there is that Mark Carney is not actually serious about getting a pipeline built because
00:08:53.340he's saying he's confident that Mark Carney is going to do the right thing. And the right thing
00:08:57.700from Jonathan Wilkinson's perspective is not building a pipeline. Actually, this is another
00:09:02.060thing that Donald Trump's now eating Mark Carney's lunch on. He just said, I'd love to build more
00:09:06.520pipelines from Canada to the United States. There's an area of leverage here that Carney could
00:09:11.020exploit, but he's not going to because he's anti-pipeline and he's anti-Trump. And what
00:09:15.480Jonathan Wilkinson is saying is that he doesn't actually think that Carney's going to build the
00:09:19.100pipeline and that he's effectively in his MOU trying to trick Alberta into hurting its own
00:09:24.480oil and gas industry to try and butter up the liberals for a pipeline that they're never going
00:09:29.980to build. Like Daniel Smith is probably getting real close this year to just saying Carney's
00:09:35.260lying to me. And like with his negotiations, Donald Trump on trade, they're meant to go
00:09:39.860nowhere and I'm cutting them off. Now I just want to get you guys to this last clip. I want to play
00:09:44.740with Jonathan Wilkinson before we move on to the next by-election writing that we will be talking
00:09:49.560about. What are your timelines now? This is now him on the CBC. You've accepted this job but you're
00:09:54.420still a member of parliament. We're going to have a by-election with Mr. Boulerice, maybe with
00:09:58.740Nader Eskin-Smith. Obviously this means there'll be a by-election in your writing. What were the
00:10:02.460timelines before? Boulerice, I think Alexander Boulerice is the NDP guy resigning in Quebec to
00:10:09.300run for the Quebec Solidaire, just for some context. When you officially say goodbye to the
00:10:13.280House of Commons. So I will be here through much of June, likely till the end of the session.
00:10:19.560That's a nice sort of departure point and a departure point, you know, with my constituents as well.
00:10:28.220And I think my wife and I are looking at being over in Brussels sometime early in July.
00:10:48.880they would look really bad in front of voters because they're all trying to do other things0.98
00:10:54.040right now. Jonathan Wilkinson doesn't have any reason to rock the boat right now on Carney
00:10:58.700because Carney could just not let him be EU ambassador if he screws him over and resigns
00:11:02.720early. So he's going to hold out. Nate Erskine-Smith doesn't want to look like he's abandoning
00:11:07.160the prime minister while he's trying to run for provincial office. And Bola Rees doesn't
00:11:11.660want to slag Avi Lewis on the way out by looking like he's escaping rather than he's going to
00:11:16.480continue sitting and voting along with his NDP allies until the Quebec provincial election
00:11:21.420happens. But Bola Reese is probably a lock for that Quebec Solidaire seat in Quebec. If you don't
00:11:26.860know, Quebec Solidaire is very strange. It's like a very nationalistic, pro-separatist
00:11:35.300socialist party. It's very strange. They're so woke. This is the funny thing with a lot of Quebec
00:11:43.100nationalists. Nationalism makes you think social conservatism, you know, protecting strong,
00:11:49.060growing families. They're protective of the very hyper-progressive downtown Montreal politics,
00:11:57.260and that is what they stand up to protect. So they're like very anti-immigration because they
00:12:01.860want to protect the province for only hyper-progressive Quebecers. It's very weird.
00:12:08.520but now we are getting into our next you know i don't know of what we're gonna i don't even know
00:12:15.180what to describe this guy is it's not you know it's not a hero or anything like that this next0.81
00:12:19.860person in the liberal party who's not going to be running again this ungrate this whiner or
00:12:26.660whatever i can only nate erskine smith just makes me think of whining every time i see him he's like0.95
00:12:31.020very much a progressive urbanite whiner, some vegan scold. So Nate Erskine-Smith is currently
00:12:38.860running to replace Dolly Begum, who you will know just replaced Bill Blair, for the Scarborough
00:12:46.020Southwest federal riding. That means the Scarborough Southwest provincial riding in Ontario
00:12:51.480is unoccupied. And Nate Erskine-Smith has been running very hard and frankly bullying people
00:12:57.520to try and get this riding. Now, the actual, as you can see here, it's last day to register to
00:13:04.740vote and trying to get people to buy Ontario Liberal Party membership so he can get that
00:13:08.960riding. I think he's probably going to do it. The man came second place in the last Ontario
00:13:15.500provincial leadership to Bonnie Crombie. He's probably going to be able to win this nomination.
00:13:23.760But the problem is that while he's getting a clear exit to go get this new seat in the Ontario legislature and then run for Ontario Liberal leader, that means that there's going to be an unoccupied seat that he's leaving behind, which is Beaches East York.
00:13:41.140And now I want to quickly bring up Beaches East York and his electoral record in that riding, because while it looks like this should be a really easy riding for the Liberals to win in a by-election, not so much in this particular by-election because of the dynamics.
00:13:57.940So in 2025, you can see that he won the riding with 67% of the vote, a massive amount.
00:14:04.200Conservatives got 23, New Democrats got 6, or 6.8%.
00:14:08.520Previously, Erskine-Smith won with 56, to the NDP's 22, and the Conservatives got 14.
00:14:15.080We have here, in 2019, Erskine-Smith got 57%, NDP got 21, and the Conservatives got 14.
00:14:24.860He has been representing the riding since 2015. But before, in 2011, the NDP did win it. This
00:14:31.380riding can swing hard. Now, that was a bad election overall for the Liberals because that was the
00:14:37.260Michael Ignatieff election where everyone was more infatuated on the left with Jack Layton
00:14:41.900than his professorial style. The Liberals won it again in 2008. But if you go back far enough,
00:14:48.980I actually do believe the NDP had previously won this, yeah, this riding in 1988. Now,
00:14:53.960that's a long ways away but if you actually look at the vote totals it's kind of a bipolar riding
00:14:59.260it will sometimes vote hard liberal and the new democrats come at like a very distant like you
00:15:04.700know second place but if you go to other elections it gets closer 2004 it's 47 to 32 in 2006 it's 40
00:15:13.920to 34 these ridings are can be competitive on the progressive left now i need to show you this
00:15:21.940special poll that came out from Main Street Research, like basically, I think a couple months
00:15:28.020ago. This was really interesting. Now, this is kind of older, so I'll show you all the inside
00:15:32.640information I get by paying Main Street to actually look at their data tables. It's old enough. I
00:15:36.600don't think Kudo Maggie cares. So this is their local poll for Beaches East York. They currently0.93
00:15:43.440show it that if the election was held today, they would have, the liberals would win it again with
00:15:50.72067% of the vote, conservatives would get 17, and the NDP would get 12. Now, you might be thinking,
00:15:57.180Wyatt, why the heck are you showing me that the liberals would retain it with effectively the
00:16:02.260exact same percentage of the vote? Well, they ended up running another poll where they asked
00:16:07.980people, how would you vote if Avi Lewis, the new leader of the NDP, was running? And suddenly,
00:16:15.240the election turns into a close NDP lead with a lot of people becoming undecided.
00:16:21.860If you know Beaches East York, I've never been there personally. I've just
00:16:25.460seen what it looks like. I've seen the demographics. I've seen the type of people
00:16:29.220they vote in, including Nate Erskine-Smith. It's a progressive, progressive riding.
00:16:35.520You know, I would say Christy Freeland's riding is like business progressive. A lot of business-y
00:16:40.440people living in downtown toronto yeah they're progressive but like these people are you know
00:16:48.060beaches east york it must be like i think it's i think you get your citizenship taken away in that
00:16:52.680riding if you don't go to at least three pride parades during the month of june and you don't
00:16:56.960take your kids to drag queen story hour and so nader sky and smith despite the fact or the
00:17:02.620jovi lewis despite the fact he's a west coaster in main street research is polling gets 33 of the
00:17:09.060vote to the Liberals, 31%. Now, that's not too shabby at all. And this is, by the way,
00:17:17.220with 440 respondents from postal codes in that riding. 32.9 Avi Lewis, 30.8 Liberal,
00:17:27.1402.1 Green, the Conservatives getting 12%. And by the way, the Conservatives in Wilkinson's
00:17:34.500riding of North Vancouver Capilano and in Beaches East York should throw everything at the wall they
00:17:40.260should throw everything at the wall even in Bola Reese's riding in Montreal because guess what
00:17:44.620conservatives can win North Vancouver Capilano potentially if Lewis's NDP really throw money
00:17:50.220into that riding and even if he's not riding himself they really throw money into that riding
00:17:53.660and they go from six percent to let's say 18 because he throws everything everything in the
00:17:57.900kitchen sink at it to try and win that riding because they need to put in a good showing and
00:18:02.280show the NDPs back, and the Liberals slump, and the Conservatives really push out their voters,
00:18:08.960they could win that riding. Done really well, they could at least look really good, the Conservatives.
00:18:14.600And then they should run really hard in Beaches, East York, because it would, in theory, be even
00:18:20.540easier for somebody like Avi Lewis to win this riding if the Conservatives didn't just get 12%
00:18:25.540of the vote. If we did it with, this is the redistributed results, sorry, the screen keeps
00:18:31.920shifting around. This is with undecideds taken out and reallocated to who they're leaning towards
00:18:36.840or completely eliminated if they just have no opinion at all. It goes 43 NDP, 39 Liberal,
00:18:42.900and 14 Conservative. Now, the margin of error on a poll like this is going to be quite high.
00:18:48.900What the Conservatives could maybe do is that if they put in like $70,000 into this writing,
00:18:55.860run a really good candidate, and you focus on all the Liberal-leaning neighborhoods,
00:19:00.160you could probably give Avi Lewis a little bit of help and start hurting the liberal vote by
00:19:05.260giving Avi Lewis a bigger voice in parliament. I'm not saying, I'm just saying. And then in
00:19:11.640Bola Risa's writing, and I don't care to look up the name because I'm not Quebecer and I'm not
00:19:16.360French and I would probably butcher the name anyways. Yeah, in his writing, the conservatives
00:19:20.680probably get about 5% of the vote. You have a good French, you know, BC, you know, Quebec
00:19:26.260conservative candidate who wants to cut his teeth on running in this election knowing he's not going
00:19:30.400to win, give him $50,000 and have him target all the more ND liberal-ish suburbs of that riding
00:19:37.620and give Bullerice a little bit of help. You know, grab onto all the anti-separatist voters in that
00:19:44.480by-election from the liberals and see what you can do. I'm just saying the conservatives could
00:19:50.860probably help trip up the Liberals from winning over that NDP rotting in Montreal. They could
00:19:56.760trip up the Liberals in Beaches, East York, and let the NDP pick up that seat. And in North
00:20:02.140Vancouver, Capilano, they could flat out win that one. I'd give that candidate like $200,000,
00:20:07.560have every someone come out, reach out to all the provincial parties and see if they'll help.
00:20:12.120Reach out to both the BC Conservatives and us at 1BC. Maybe we can get something to happen.
00:20:16.860I'm not saying. I'm just saying. By the way, I'm purely speaking for myself. I'm not speaking on behalf of 1BC. I'm just being funny here. But regardless, there is actually a potential that Mark Carney gained a majority through floor crossings that was very sleazy and holding on to it through three easy by-elections.
00:20:38.740I always hate when people are like, oh, the conservatives did so badly in those by-elections.
00:20:42.880Those, the last three by-elections we had, University-Rosedale, the one in Quebec, or