The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - May 01, 2026


Liberals LOSING 2 MPs - Mark Carney could LOSE his Fake Majority!


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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Jonathan Wilkinson is stepping down from the House of Commons of Canada to become the new Canadian ambassador to the European Union. This is a big blow to the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government. I discuss why this is a good thing for the Conservatives and why a by-election in the riding of North Vancouver-Capilano is likely to be a Conservative win.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
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00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here, and welcome back to the National Telegraph YouTube channel.
00:00:06.580 So, a bunch of nonsense is going to happen all over again, because Prime Minister Mark Carney's
00:00:12.860 Liberal government is about to lose two Liberal MPs, and we are going to have another three
00:00:18.940 by-elections this summer that could determine whether or not the Liberals will actually have
00:00:24.360 a majority come the fall. So let's just get right into it and not do any annoying intro stuff.
00:00:31.600 The person who announced today that they will be stepping down sometime in later June is Jonathan
00:00:37.860 Wilkinson, who has been representing the riding of North Vancouver Capilano since 2015. That's what
00:00:45.060 the riding is currently called. It's been called other things previously, but the boundaries are
00:00:49.780 pretty much the same that they've always been. But Jonathan is now saying that he is going to become
00:00:55.940 Canada's ambassador to the European Union. He specifically states here,
00:01:00.680 Today I've accepted the Prime Minister's invitation to serve as Canada's ambassador to the European
00:01:06.060 Union. I take on this role for the same reason I entered public life, to serve Canada. Thank you
00:01:11.880 for your trust, your candor, and your belief that we can always do better. Now, I don't actually
00:01:17.440 believe. The Prime Minister invited him to go become the ambassador to the European Union.
00:01:22.120 It's probably that Jonathan Wilkinson and Mark Carney do not like each other, just like Christy
00:01:27.160 Freeland and Mark Carney do not like each other. And so he is going to go find work elsewhere.
00:01:32.860 Also, whenever a person says, oh, I got into politics to serve Canada, it's like,
00:01:38.160 no, you didn't. Even politicians I like, they didn't get into it to serve Canada or to serve
00:01:43.820 Canadians. They have specific interests that they want to serve. And I don't mean that from
00:01:48.040 a nefarious perspective. If you're, let's say, like myself, a fiscal hawk, a social and cultural
00:01:54.640 conservative, you are getting into politics to try and bring those values into Canada's government.
00:02:00.660 Now, some people have sleazier motivations for getting into politics. They want, you know,
00:02:04.660 the adulation. They want the attention. You know, some are hyper-progressives and they want to bring
00:02:08.760 hyper-progressive Marxism into government. Nobody gets into politics because I want to serve
00:02:13.740 Canada. You know, I think there are some people who want to live up to a patriotic ideal, but
00:02:18.100 that's not like the reason you got in. There's many reasons, and maybe patriotism is somewhere
00:02:23.080 on the list, but goodness, I just hate the kind of boilerplate so many politicians use in this
00:02:28.320 country. Now, the problem for Mark Carney and the Liberals is that this writing and another writing
00:02:34.760 that we're going to be talking about in just a bit are actually winnable for the Conservatives.
00:02:40.840 This was the 2025 election results for North Vancouver Capilano.
00:02:48.400 Jonathan Wilkinson took 59.83% of the vote.
00:02:52.560 The Conservatives, Stephen Curran, got 33.6% and DP got 4.24%.
00:02:57.880 But that was a massive underperformance compared to what they usually do.
00:03:01.660 Greens got 1.7%. People's Party got 0.4%.
00:03:04.840 But the problem is, even though that's a really healthy margin for Jonathan Wilkinson,
00:03:10.400 I believe that that is a margin that only will show up for Jonathan Wilkinson doesn't mean a liberal will not win it in a by-election. What I'm saying is that a very popular individual, whether you and I actually like them or not, you know, I don't like Jonathan Wilkinson, but there's a certain type of liberal curious voter who likes Jonathan Wilkinson, someone who, you know, definitely the base of the liberal party liked him.
00:03:35.400 There's probably some new Democrats who liked him, and there's probably some people who previously voted conservative who liked the cut of Jonathan Wilkinson's, you know, jib.
00:03:44.460 But the problem is, if Jonathan Wilkinson isn't around anymore, is it going to be more of a swing riding again?
00:03:51.500 So I'm just going to go through the election results for Jonathan Wilkinson since 2015, and we'll go a little bit further back then.
00:03:59.320 So in 2021, he had 45% of the vote, and his conservative opponent had only 28%.
00:04:05.120 really embarrassing for the conservatives. But again, I think it's just that Jonathan Wilkinson
00:04:09.640 is quite popular, and it would have been tough for anyone to beat him. In 2019, he got 42% of
00:04:15.460 the vote. The conservative previous MP ran again. Andrew Saxton only got 26% of the vote. In 2015
00:04:22.580 was the first time that Jonathan Wilkinson took the seat and won it from Andrew Saxton,
00:04:26.620 and he got 56% of the vote that last time. But as I'm indicating here, Jonathan Saxton in 2011
00:04:33.620 won it with 48% of the vote. And Tlaib Nur Muhammad, who's now, I believe, the MP for
00:04:39.720 Vancouver Center, or it's not Vancouver Center, it might be like Vancouver, whatever. It's not
00:04:45.300 Quadra, that's Wade Grant. But he's a current liberal MP, more downtown-ish Vancouver. Tlaib
00:04:51.780 Nur Muhammad ran against Andrew Saxton in 2011 and got beaten 48 to 29. And before that, Andrew
00:04:58.520 Saxton won it in a much tighter election in 2008, and he got it from Don Bell, the previous MP,
00:05:04.980 42 to 37. Don Bell had held the riding for two terms, and before that, it was Ted White who won
00:05:11.460 it for the Alliance Party, but also had won it both times that reform ran in 1993 and 1997.
00:05:20.840 This is to say, this isn't liberal territory. With Jonathan Wilkinson, it's liberal territory,
00:05:26.800 but there are many ridings throughout Canada that unless a specific person ran, that party's not
00:05:33.060 going to do nearly as well. If Elizabeth May steps down in Saanich and the islands, the Green Party's
00:05:39.180 probably not holding on to that riding. There are other ridings around the country, like one of the 0.95
00:05:44.320 ridings that we're going to be talking about that's going to have a by-election. I forget what his
00:05:48.540 name is Alexander Andre, the one NDP MP that was left in all of Quebec. In the by-election,
00:05:56.920 I'm not sure if the NDP hold on to that. He was just personally popular, and now he's going into
00:06:01.180 Quebec provincial politics. And even though the Quebec Solidaire Party isn't that popular overall
00:06:06.200 in Quebec, he's going to be able to easily win a seat for the Quebec Solidaire Party because he
00:06:11.860 just brings that personal magnetism to the races. That's what Jonathan Wilkinson brought into this
00:06:17.080 riding. And I think now what we are going to see is that it's going to become a competitive swing
00:06:23.060 riding again. And Avi Lewis, the new the new NDP leader, is from the lower mainland. He's a
00:06:30.100 Vancouverite. Even if he's not going to run as the candidate, and he's already confirmed that I
00:06:35.440 should bring this up now on X. So Rob Shaw here reports, NDP leader Avi Lewis says he will not
00:06:43.940 run in the by-election to replace Wilkinson in North Vancouver, Cavillano, says we'll leave the
00:06:48.460 House of Commons, work for five MPs, and spend his time traveling the country to get other ridings
00:06:53.180 ready and raise money for the next election. Now, some people are calling coward at Avi Lewis.
00:06:58.540 I don't like Avi Lewis, so I'm not one to give the man a compliment or make excuses for him for
00:07:03.040 no reason. He's not a coward. They just don't have the ground really set for him to run here.
00:07:09.460 Maybe he could win, maybe he couldn't.
00:07:11.300 If he doesn't win, he's an embarrassment and the party starts really hurting.
00:07:15.420 But there's another by-election that's going to happen that's far better for him
00:07:19.760 that we will be getting to in just a bit.
00:07:21.640 I actually just quickly want to take you guys through some clips of Jonathan Wilkinson
00:07:27.080 on CTV News Power Play, sort of talking about politics as he's leaving.
00:07:32.180 Right here, this is not the best thing for Jonathan Wilkinson to say on his way out for
00:07:37.740 Mark Carney, again, probably because he doesn't like Carney and he's not playing along with the
00:07:41.580 narrative, you know, in Carney's pro-pipeline narrative about himself. Is Carney actually
00:07:46.560 pro-pipeline? No, he just pretends to be, just as people pretend to be doctors on television,
00:07:51.720 Mark Carney pretends to be pro-pipeline as prime minister. Jonathan Wilkinson is somebody who
00:07:56.080 has always been opposing a pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast, is saying that he doesn't
00:08:00.860 actually believe that Carney's going to build the pipeline. As I say, I know the prime minister
00:08:05.080 and i know his commitment to climate action and i would also say um he has a view that it's very
00:08:10.520 important that we find a way to bring alberta along with us in this conversation um and and
00:08:16.440 while i know there are some folks who have raised concerns with respect to some elements of the mou
00:08:20.440 with alberta part of what that's about is getting alberta to buy into an industrial carbon price
00:08:24.680 that's actually going to be effective to move forward on carbon capture and sequestration that
00:08:28.840 allow us to reduce emissions in the oil and gas sector in Alberta. So I do think that there are
00:08:36.200 different ways to go about addressing the climate issue. But at my heart, I believe that the Prime
00:08:43.240 Minister is committed to this. I just do. Now, what the cat that Mr. Wilkinson just let out of
00:08:48.560 the bag there is that Mark Carney is not actually serious about getting a pipeline built because
00:08:53.340 he's saying he's confident that Mark Carney is going to do the right thing. And the right thing
00:08:57.700 from Jonathan Wilkinson's perspective is not building a pipeline. Actually, this is another
00:09:02.060 thing that Donald Trump's now eating Mark Carney's lunch on. He just said, I'd love to build more
00:09:06.520 pipelines from Canada to the United States. There's an area of leverage here that Carney could
00:09:11.020 exploit, but he's not going to because he's anti-pipeline and he's anti-Trump. And what
00:09:15.480 Jonathan Wilkinson is saying is that he doesn't actually think that Carney's going to build the
00:09:19.100 pipeline and that he's effectively in his MOU trying to trick Alberta into hurting its own
00:09:24.480 oil and gas industry to try and butter up the liberals for a pipeline that they're never going
00:09:29.980 to build. Like Daniel Smith is probably getting real close this year to just saying Carney's
00:09:35.260 lying to me. And like with his negotiations, Donald Trump on trade, they're meant to go
00:09:39.860 nowhere and I'm cutting them off. Now I just want to get you guys to this last clip. I want to play
00:09:44.740 with Jonathan Wilkinson before we move on to the next by-election writing that we will be talking
00:09:49.560 about. What are your timelines now? This is now him on the CBC. You've accepted this job but you're
00:09:54.420 still a member of parliament. We're going to have a by-election with Mr. Boulerice, maybe with
00:09:58.740 Nader Eskin-Smith. Obviously this means there'll be a by-election in your writing. What were the
00:10:02.460 timelines before? Boulerice, I think Alexander Boulerice is the NDP guy resigning in Quebec to
00:10:09.300 run for the Quebec Solidaire, just for some context. When you officially say goodbye to the
00:10:13.280 House of Commons. So I will be here through much of June, likely till the end of the session.
00:10:19.560 That's a nice sort of departure point and a departure point, you know, with my constituents as well.
00:10:28.220 And I think my wife and I are looking at being over in Brussels sometime early in July.
00:10:33.080 What are your timelines now?
00:10:34.580 You've accepted that showing us that these things are going to be coming up fast.
00:10:38.060 So Mark Carr is going to maintain all the votes he needs until the end of session.
00:10:43.600 Nate Erskine-Smith isn't going to leave until session's over, as well as Alexander Bola-Reese. 0.96
00:10:48.080 It would just be foolish.
00:10:48.880 they would look really bad in front of voters because they're all trying to do other things 0.98
00:10:54.040 right now. Jonathan Wilkinson doesn't have any reason to rock the boat right now on Carney
00:10:58.700 because Carney could just not let him be EU ambassador if he screws him over and resigns
00:11:02.720 early. So he's going to hold out. Nate Erskine-Smith doesn't want to look like he's abandoning
00:11:07.160 the prime minister while he's trying to run for provincial office. And Bola Rees doesn't
00:11:11.660 want to slag Avi Lewis on the way out by looking like he's escaping rather than he's going to
00:11:16.480 continue sitting and voting along with his NDP allies until the Quebec provincial election
00:11:21.420 happens. But Bola Reese is probably a lock for that Quebec Solidaire seat in Quebec. If you don't
00:11:26.860 know, Quebec Solidaire is very strange. It's like a very nationalistic, pro-separatist
00:11:35.300 socialist party. It's very strange. They're so woke. This is the funny thing with a lot of Quebec
00:11:43.100 nationalists. Nationalism makes you think social conservatism, you know, protecting strong,
00:11:49.060 growing families. They're protective of the very hyper-progressive downtown Montreal politics,
00:11:57.260 and that is what they stand up to protect. So they're like very anti-immigration because they
00:12:01.860 want to protect the province for only hyper-progressive Quebecers. It's very weird.
00:12:08.520 but now we are getting into our next you know i don't know of what we're gonna i don't even know
00:12:15.180 what to describe this guy is it's not you know it's not a hero or anything like that this next 0.81
00:12:19.860 person in the liberal party who's not going to be running again this ungrate this whiner or
00:12:26.660 whatever i can only nate erskine smith just makes me think of whining every time i see him he's like 0.95
00:12:31.020 very much a progressive urbanite whiner, some vegan scold. So Nate Erskine-Smith is currently
00:12:38.860 running to replace Dolly Begum, who you will know just replaced Bill Blair, for the Scarborough
00:12:46.020 Southwest federal riding. That means the Scarborough Southwest provincial riding in Ontario
00:12:51.480 is unoccupied. And Nate Erskine-Smith has been running very hard and frankly bullying people
00:12:57.520 to try and get this riding. Now, the actual, as you can see here, it's last day to register to
00:13:04.740 vote and trying to get people to buy Ontario Liberal Party membership so he can get that
00:13:08.960 riding. I think he's probably going to do it. The man came second place in the last Ontario
00:13:15.500 provincial leadership to Bonnie Crombie. He's probably going to be able to win this nomination.
00:13:23.760 But the problem is that while he's getting a clear exit to go get this new seat in the Ontario legislature and then run for Ontario Liberal leader, that means that there's going to be an unoccupied seat that he's leaving behind, which is Beaches East York.
00:13:41.140 And now I want to quickly bring up Beaches East York and his electoral record in that riding, because while it looks like this should be a really easy riding for the Liberals to win in a by-election, not so much in this particular by-election because of the dynamics.
00:13:57.940 So in 2025, you can see that he won the riding with 67% of the vote, a massive amount.
00:14:04.200 Conservatives got 23, New Democrats got 6, or 6.8%.
00:14:08.520 Previously, Erskine-Smith won with 56, to the NDP's 22, and the Conservatives got 14.
00:14:15.080 We have here, in 2019, Erskine-Smith got 57%, NDP got 21, and the Conservatives got 14.
00:14:23.340 Very, very left-wing.
00:14:24.860 He has been representing the riding since 2015. But before, in 2011, the NDP did win it. This
00:14:31.380 riding can swing hard. Now, that was a bad election overall for the Liberals because that was the
00:14:37.260 Michael Ignatieff election where everyone was more infatuated on the left with Jack Layton
00:14:41.900 than his professorial style. The Liberals won it again in 2008. But if you go back far enough,
00:14:48.980 I actually do believe the NDP had previously won this, yeah, this riding in 1988. Now,
00:14:53.960 that's a long ways away but if you actually look at the vote totals it's kind of a bipolar riding
00:14:59.260 it will sometimes vote hard liberal and the new democrats come at like a very distant like you
00:15:04.700 know second place but if you go to other elections it gets closer 2004 it's 47 to 32 in 2006 it's 40
00:15:13.920 to 34 these ridings are can be competitive on the progressive left now i need to show you this
00:15:21.940 special poll that came out from Main Street Research, like basically, I think a couple months
00:15:28.020 ago. This was really interesting. Now, this is kind of older, so I'll show you all the inside
00:15:32.640 information I get by paying Main Street to actually look at their data tables. It's old enough. I
00:15:36.600 don't think Kudo Maggie cares. So this is their local poll for Beaches East York. They currently 0.93
00:15:43.440 show it that if the election was held today, they would have, the liberals would win it again with
00:15:50.720 67% of the vote, conservatives would get 17, and the NDP would get 12. Now, you might be thinking,
00:15:57.180 Wyatt, why the heck are you showing me that the liberals would retain it with effectively the
00:16:02.260 exact same percentage of the vote? Well, they ended up running another poll where they asked
00:16:07.980 people, how would you vote if Avi Lewis, the new leader of the NDP, was running? And suddenly,
00:16:15.240 the election turns into a close NDP lead with a lot of people becoming undecided.
00:16:21.860 If you know Beaches East York, I've never been there personally. I've just
00:16:25.460 seen what it looks like. I've seen the demographics. I've seen the type of people
00:16:29.220 they vote in, including Nate Erskine-Smith. It's a progressive, progressive riding.
00:16:35.520 You know, I would say Christy Freeland's riding is like business progressive. A lot of business-y
00:16:40.440 people living in downtown toronto yeah they're progressive but like these people are you know
00:16:48.060 beaches east york it must be like i think it's i think you get your citizenship taken away in that
00:16:52.680 riding if you don't go to at least three pride parades during the month of june and you don't
00:16:56.960 take your kids to drag queen story hour and so nader sky and smith despite the fact or the
00:17:02.620 jovi lewis despite the fact he's a west coaster in main street research is polling gets 33 of the
00:17:09.060 vote to the Liberals, 31%. Now, that's not too shabby at all. And this is, by the way,
00:17:17.220 with 440 respondents from postal codes in that riding. 32.9 Avi Lewis, 30.8 Liberal,
00:17:27.140 2.1 Green, the Conservatives getting 12%. And by the way, the Conservatives in Wilkinson's
00:17:34.500 riding of North Vancouver Capilano and in Beaches East York should throw everything at the wall they
00:17:40.260 should throw everything at the wall even in Bola Reese's riding in Montreal because guess what
00:17:44.620 conservatives can win North Vancouver Capilano potentially if Lewis's NDP really throw money
00:17:50.220 into that riding and even if he's not riding himself they really throw money into that riding
00:17:53.660 and they go from six percent to let's say 18 because he throws everything everything in the
00:17:57.900 kitchen sink at it to try and win that riding because they need to put in a good showing and
00:18:02.280 show the NDPs back, and the Liberals slump, and the Conservatives really push out their voters,
00:18:08.960 they could win that riding. Done really well, they could at least look really good, the Conservatives.
00:18:14.600 And then they should run really hard in Beaches, East York, because it would, in theory, be even
00:18:20.540 easier for somebody like Avi Lewis to win this riding if the Conservatives didn't just get 12%
00:18:25.540 of the vote. If we did it with, this is the redistributed results, sorry, the screen keeps
00:18:31.920 shifting around. This is with undecideds taken out and reallocated to who they're leaning towards
00:18:36.840 or completely eliminated if they just have no opinion at all. It goes 43 NDP, 39 Liberal,
00:18:42.900 and 14 Conservative. Now, the margin of error on a poll like this is going to be quite high.
00:18:48.900 What the Conservatives could maybe do is that if they put in like $70,000 into this writing,
00:18:55.860 run a really good candidate, and you focus on all the Liberal-leaning neighborhoods,
00:19:00.160 you could probably give Avi Lewis a little bit of help and start hurting the liberal vote by
00:19:05.260 giving Avi Lewis a bigger voice in parliament. I'm not saying, I'm just saying. And then in
00:19:11.640 Bola Risa's writing, and I don't care to look up the name because I'm not Quebecer and I'm not
00:19:16.360 French and I would probably butcher the name anyways. Yeah, in his writing, the conservatives
00:19:20.680 probably get about 5% of the vote. You have a good French, you know, BC, you know, Quebec
00:19:26.260 conservative candidate who wants to cut his teeth on running in this election knowing he's not going
00:19:30.400 to win, give him $50,000 and have him target all the more ND liberal-ish suburbs of that riding
00:19:37.620 and give Bullerice a little bit of help. You know, grab onto all the anti-separatist voters in that
00:19:44.480 by-election from the liberals and see what you can do. I'm just saying the conservatives could
00:19:50.860 probably help trip up the Liberals from winning over that NDP rotting in Montreal. They could
00:19:56.760 trip up the Liberals in Beaches, East York, and let the NDP pick up that seat. And in North
00:20:02.140 Vancouver, Capilano, they could flat out win that one. I'd give that candidate like $200,000,
00:20:07.560 have every someone come out, reach out to all the provincial parties and see if they'll help.
00:20:12.120 Reach out to both the BC Conservatives and us at 1BC. Maybe we can get something to happen.
00:20:16.860 I'm not saying. I'm just saying. By the way, I'm purely speaking for myself. I'm not speaking on behalf of 1BC. I'm just being funny here. But regardless, there is actually a potential that Mark Carney gained a majority through floor crossings that was very sleazy and holding on to it through three easy by-elections.
00:20:38.740 I always hate when people are like, oh, the conservatives did so badly in those by-elections.
00:20:42.880 Those, the last three by-elections we had, University-Rosedale, the one in Quebec, or
00:20:48.200 which one was it?
00:20:49.140 It was like Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest, there's another one.
00:20:53.860 Those have never, Terrebonne or whatever, those have never been conservative ridings.
00:20:57.460 So of course conservatives didn't show up to them.
00:20:59.700 It's a by-election where you're not going to win.
00:21:01.900 Conservatives only show up in those ridings in the general elections out of solidarity
00:21:04.940 with the rest of the voters and easier to win ridings.
00:21:07.980 Of course, they didn't do well in these ones. But in these new by-elections, there actually is
00:21:12.520 the potential of Carney getting his majority in a corrupt fashion and then getting punished by
00:21:18.020 voters in the next three by-elections and then losing it again, or it gets basically whittled
00:21:22.280 down to just one. Actually, if they lose both North Vancouver, Capilano, as well as Beaches,
00:21:29.360 East York, it would actually now be a minority government once again. And that, to me, would be
00:21:35.160 quite funny anyways so with all that being said conservative party take my advice don't take my
00:21:41.320 advice either either take this advice or hold pierre down and force him to wear like a brown
00:21:47.300 tie like this rather than like always wearing a dark navy tie this is my pet peeve with pierre
00:21:51.700 i like the guy i like him but i am a fashion terrorist and i will eventually find him and
00:21:58.860 force him to pick a color other than navy blue and slightly dark blue he needs another color he's
00:22:06.440 looking like spongebob square pants these days always wearing the same outfit every day he needs
00:22:10.320 some color in his life bring out bring out the color in your eyes by wearing like brown brown
00:22:15.900 loves blue for all you men out there trying to figure out how to wear suits if you have a dark
00:22:22.020 blue suit brown ties work really well with it cream colored shirt don't always buy white shirts
00:22:27.940 it makes everything cool cream colored shirts look good anyways with all that being said thank
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