Justin Trudeau has resigned as Prime Minister of Canada, and now it's time to pick a new leader for the Liberal Party of Canada. But what will it take to replace him? Is there any hope for the party in the short term?
00:00:02.840So it looks like the big Liberal Party switcheroo of Justin Trudeau for some boring face for the Liberal Party is not going to work at all.
00:00:12.080While yes, the Liberal Party has a 20-point gap between themselves and the Conservatives, and it seems to be an insurmountable polling gap,
00:00:20.720it's not the gap that's actually the problem for the Liberals.
00:00:23.520It's that no matter who the Liberals pick to be their new leader, Canadians are not going to consider voting for them.
00:00:30.480Here is a poll result from Ipsos that highlights this issue perfectly.
00:00:36.140The question is, now that Justin Trudeau has resigned, how likely would you be to consider voting for the Liberal Party in the next federal election?
00:00:44.70023% of respondents say very likely or fairly likely, 57% say not very likely or not at all likely, and 20% say don't know.
00:00:56.660Now, let's be very clear, they're not going to capture that full 20%.
00:01:00.92023% basically is what the Liberal Party base is.
00:01:05.840So basically everyone who is already voting Liberal, surprisingly, might still be voting Liberal.
00:01:12.040And then 57%, a majority of Canadians, a large majority of Canadians, will never consider voting for them in this next election.
00:01:21.580And with that remaining 20%, it's impossible for the Liberals to capture it all, because there are multiple parties in Canada's system.
00:01:29.760Those are going to be NDP voters, Bloc voters, Green voters, other party voters.
00:01:35.780There's just no capacity left for the Liberals to actually gain with somebody new.
00:01:41.380And do you really think that the person with the secret sauce in hand is one of the people who have announced that they're running for the Liberal leadership so far?
00:01:50.160Again, they might as well all tattoo Justin Trudeau's face on their faces, because they don't actually have any real policy disagreements with Trudeau.
00:02:00.100So even Freeland, who ended up resigning in a huff saying, oh, I don't like all these gimmicky policies, she was perfectly fine with the gimmicky policies for years.
00:02:09.440She only resigned all of a sudden because Trudeau was about to demote her, as well as the fact that he made her look silly by promising a $40 billion deficit, which isn't even good.
00:02:20.540And then Trudeau forcing her to move it up to like a $63, $62 billion deficit.
00:02:27.000That's the only reason she resigned, is that she was just particularly embarrassed by Trudeau.
00:02:31.680So if he told her to aim for a $65 billion deficit, and she came out with $62, she would be perfectly happy to take credit for undershooting the deficit line by $3 billion, even though we should try and have, you know, a balanced budget, if not a surplus, so we can start paying down the debt and actually like slashing wasteful programs.
00:02:53.180Just a thought. But let's get into some of these other results, because all this, again, is so telling at just the lack of any traction that the Liberal Party is not only going to have in the next federal election.
00:03:05.980I don't think the Liberals have a good chance of coming second place for at least another two elections.
00:03:11.880I think that 2025 is just the start of probably an eight to 12 year rebuilding program inside the Liberal Party.
00:03:18.820The only thing that could save them is if the Conservative Party just starts shooting itself in the foot and giving credence that maybe the Liberals were right about some things.
00:03:26.720I don't think that's going to happen. But, you know, never say never when people like Aaron O'Toole have been Conservative Party leader in the past.
00:03:33.300But I would say that Pierre Polyab is doing a genuinely good job at the moment.
00:03:38.540Here, let's look at this. So these are the current polls for who people would consider voting for as Liberal Party leader.
00:03:46.920Many of these people who are named in this have said that they're not running.
00:03:50.680I don't follow Ipsos, obviously, because this has been only the last couple of days that they have announced that they're not going to run.
00:03:57.820And this is not this is like people rating people's very favorable or fairly likely.
00:04:03.860Look at this. What is your impression of the following potential replacements for Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party?
00:04:10.340And this is just positive ratings. And here's another one.
00:04:13.940If they became leader of the Liberal Party before the next election, how likely would he be to consider voting for the Liberal Party?
00:04:19.700And this is my point exactly. One, look at the positive ratings.
00:04:24.380Obviously, this is going to be weighed down by the fact that most people have zero opinion about them at all.
00:04:29.640And then Conservatives are going to have extremely negative opinions of them.
00:04:33.060But Chrystia Freeland is leading the pack, like setting the trend with a positive rating of 29 percent.
00:04:41.540That's what that's the rating you get when people think you need to step down as leader.
00:04:45.760And while, yes, you could say, well, not enough Canadians know who she is.
00:04:49.660More than 50 percent of Canadians know who Chrystia Freeland is.
00:04:52.440And she's at a 29 percent positive approval rating.
00:04:55.820Mark Carney, 17. Melanie Jolie, who's not running at 15.
00:04:59.560Although she said, I'm totally ready to run.
00:05:01.760Oh, I could totally lead this party as the first female leader.
00:05:16.900And Francois-Philippe Champagne, who we are going to hear later today whether or not he is going to throw his hat in the ring and get absolutely stomped.
00:08:28.400Like, she doesn't really have much at all in terms of skills with debating or, you know, public speaking at rallies.
00:08:36.600And you kind of need that if you're going to compete with your Polyev.
00:08:40.260This is not a COVID election where you get to kind of hide in the background and be voted in because, well, we're the government.
00:08:46.720And if people want to be patriotic Canadians, they better vote for us.
00:08:50.880That's how Trudeau basically got in 2021, also with the help of Aaron O'Toole being the worst conservative leader since Kim Campbell.
00:08:58.760But here's another poll result I thought was just interesting to highlight.
00:09:01.980How would he rate the overall performance of Justin Trudeau during his time as Prime Minister of Canada?
00:09:06.160And this is important because every single liberal is going to be running with the exact same type of record because they're all stapled to his hip.
00:09:53.180So right now with Trudeau having 38% of people giving failing grades, 15% giving him a D, and 20% giving him a C.
00:10:01.820And you don't really cast a ballot for someone you'd give a C to.
00:10:05.460He's currently at 20% with those ratings.
00:10:08.620And then the party's going to try and run someone.
00:10:11.080And all this time and effort is going to get them the capacity of having 23% of people very or fairly likely to consider voting for them, which basically completely overlaps with all the people already considering voting for them.
00:10:24.640Would you already approve of Trudeau's resignation?
00:10:26.620Only 19% of people disapprove of him resigning.
00:10:29.420And let's be clear, that is basically just BK Belton, Vicky Campbell, all the true and on people, as well as conservatives who wanted to see him get his butt kicked at the next federal election.
00:10:40.520Justin Trudeau, I actually guarantee, is going to come back at some point.
00:10:44.920That by not losing the next election, not being the face of the loss, it allows him to come back maybe eight years, let the liberals lose an extra election cycle after 2025, and then reintroduce himself.
00:10:57.540As the progressive leader of the past, that's much better than the conservatives because the conservatives did something minorly wrong, because every government's going to do something wrong.
00:11:06.300Mark my words, the man is going to try it because he has absolutely no shame at all.
00:11:11.120Anyways, there isn't something new I just quickly want to move on and talk about, and that is a potential Ontario provincial election.
00:11:20.180Please, no, please do not do this to me.
00:14:45.180Oh, he's going to change our country and make us run 100% by terrorists rather than just 50% at the moment.
00:14:52.360But, yeah, here is the polling from Ontario.
00:14:55.860And this is where I actually think Doug Ford is in real danger if he tries to hold a new election.
00:15:01.960Because while he is still ahead in the polls, this is a lead dictated by the fact that he is not going to arbitrarily call a provincial election a year before they have to have one.
00:15:14.720The next Ontario election is not scheduled until June of 2026.
00:15:19.400And Doug Ford is going to try and move before the next election and try and basically take advantage of the fact that Trudeau is very unpopular and people will just vote for whatever is blue on the ballot.
00:15:33.080And so he doesn't want Trudeau to become the next – he doesn't want Polyev to become the next prime minister.
00:15:40.020And then he has to run in an election with Polyev as the prime minister.
00:15:43.660Because the secret about Doug Ford and the Ontario PC party is they are basically just liberals.
00:15:50.000Are they as far left as the current federal liberals and Justin Trudeau?
00:15:54.620No, but they give them a run for their money.
00:15:56.900In fact, Doug Ford and the PCs, which might as well just become the progressive party of Ontario, they have partnered with the liberals on tons of subsidy programs.
00:16:24.240And then also there's corruption on top of it.
00:16:26.040But sometimes the Ontario government does the right thing.
00:16:30.000Like they're going to try and privatize liquor stores or they were going to try and remove some land from the green belt to build some more houses.
00:16:36.620But even then, it's like then they're trying to cut a deal with a specific friend to be able to pull land out of the green belt for.
00:17:12.520But Merit Stiles is at least not insane.
00:17:14.820She's not a hyper-progressive, although I will condemn her if she tries to allow Sarah Jama back into her caucus, who is just a flat-out terror supporter.
00:17:23.640But all three of these parties are literally all just different versions of Liberals.
00:17:28.220Like the Ontario PCs are slightly more businessy Liberals.
00:17:31.880But at the end of the day, their actual solutions to growing business in Ontario is throwing money at them, subsidies, whatever.
00:17:49.600They also funded the battery plants with Trudeau.
00:17:53.100They also funded the EV power of the plants.
00:17:55.960They also mandate 8% green energy on the grid that has been spiking the cost of energy in Ontario.
00:18:03.380Because while, yes, provinces buy per kilowatt hour or whatever units they buy power in, although they buy power at a fixed price,
00:18:12.720you get massive subsidies if you're providing green energy onto the grid, which means that per kilowatt hour,
00:18:19.260taxpayers are paying multiple times more for that 8% of the grid to the point where that 8% mandated green energy amount on the grid
00:18:28.660ends up costing people like 30% to 40% of their power bills every month.
00:18:34.200This is why in Ontario, guys, if you live in Ontario, not only should you vote for the new blue party of Ontario,
00:18:41.840which, by the way, is run by Jim Carajalios, the man who actually originally started the axe,
00:18:47.840the carbon tax movement back in 2018, and ousted Patrick Brown as the PC Ontario leader.
00:18:54.340But he is also running, like, he's also a very competent manager of a small party.
00:18:59.820His party runs a candidate in every single riding.
00:19:02.220They have a functioning EDA in every single riding.
00:19:04.780They were, in fact, the first party to have all of their, like, their candidate, like, financial returns in.
00:19:10.840He is a very good leader, but you guys should consider not just voting for them, but potentially running for the new blue party of Ontario.
00:19:18.120I'm probably going to show up to Ontario whenever that election gets called to doorknock for them to do all sorts of things.
00:19:23.920Because the PCs, even if the new blue party is not going to form government, they got 2.3% in the last election,
00:19:31.100which is actually impressive for, like, a first time showing when Jim had just recovered from, like, really deep cancer treatments,
00:19:37.900surgeries, chemo, and all that, they got a decent amount, and they even had saboteur parties running against them
00:19:43.320who were trying to run with basically the same platform to stifle the third-party movement.
00:19:48.340But, like, they actually can be a check on the Ontario PCs to demand the bare minimum of conservative standards
00:19:55.900be actually implemented in Ontario, because that's the problem for Doug Ford.
00:21:45.540The one thing I can give them is that health care is still the best in Ontario.
00:21:48.820But that's more of just a consequence that there is the most investment in terms of tax dollars in Ontario,
00:21:55.200that it's the biggest province and you get a lot of doctors in Toronto, the Toronto area willing to live and work there.
00:22:02.040But if you go to like northern Ontario, health care sucks again.
00:22:05.000If you go to certain other parts of Ontario, there's just non-existent health care.
00:22:08.620But anyways, still, vote New Blue, Doug Ford's a clown, and I do, I hope that he doesn't call an election,
00:22:17.120although maybe it's a good thing because it might snap the PCs out of it and that they are required to actually improve how they do things.
00:22:23.540But anyways, that's it for me today, guys.
00:22:27.060Again, like and subscribe to the channel.