The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Liberals running from a 2026 Election! Carney is on thin ice!

00:00:00.000 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here back again to break down some Canadian national polling numbers.

00:00:06.460 Today I want to talk about why it is very likely that we are going to see a new federal election

00:00:12.500 in 2026 and why Mark Carney's Liberal Party is so terrified of a new election occurring.

00:00:20.460 This is not like when Pierre Polyev first became the Conservative leader in 2022 where both the

00:00:26.580 NDP and the Liberals were trying to duck a new election at all costs, even though Jagmeet

00:00:31.840 Singh's NDP would have benefited. We are in a very different environment here in 2025 going into

00:00:37.880 2026. Pretty much all of the parties smell blood in the water, including the Liberals. They're just

00:00:44.960 kind of timid about having a new election because their polling is not very strong right now. Yes,

00:00:50.940 the Liberals could still win a new election if one took place. They are one of the top two parties

00:00:56.460 so obviously they always have a chance to win, but I don't think Mark Carney really wants to roll

00:01:01.420 the dice on this one. That's why he's trying to poach more MPs to cross the floor and join his

00:01:07.440 government. But even in that scenario, where a couple of more Conservatives or an NDP crosses the

00:01:13.940 floor and joins Mark Carney's team, we would still be likely to have an election because the entire

00:01:20.000 opposition would just try and throw as much sand in the gears of government as possible and make

00:01:25.640 Mark Carney's life absolutely insufferable if he ends up getting a majority through effective,

00:01:32.280 you know, sleazy, fraudulent behavior. Maybe legal behavior, but deeply sleazy, driving people with,

00:01:40.040 you know, powerful positions they can have, you know, higher salaries in those positions, 0.96

00:01:44.600 maybe a bigger re-election fund. I don't know what he is offering these MPs crossing the floor,

00:01:49.880 but obviously people are leaving for non-ideological reasons. Maybe they were never

00:01:55.060 Conservatives in the first place, maybe Chris Dontremont and Michael Ma were always complete

00:01:59.340 weaklings. At the very least, I don't think it's because they agree with the Liberal agenda so much

00:02:03.660 that they're leaving, it's something else that's motivating it. But we'll get to talking more about

00:02:08.560 the details in just a second here. First, I just quickly want to do a shameless plug for the membership

00:02:14.320 program for the channel. If you go underneath the video and hit the join button, you can join the TNT

00:02:20.600 membership program. It's not much. It's basically just helping sustain the channel so I don't have

00:02:26.960 to rely on the algorithm so much. You'll put out a video and you think you did good work, but the video

00:02:32.680 mentions Ukraine and so YouTube just absolutely craters the reach of that video and you just have

00:02:38.120 to deal with it. By having the membership program, it makes me less reliant on the algorithm and makes

00:02:43.060 the whole thing more sustainable for me. So join that if you don't mind. If you don't want to,

00:02:48.480 that's totally fine. Like, share, subscribe, do all that great stuff and you're already doing a lot

00:02:52.460 for me. But today, what we're going to be breaking down is voter enthusiasm among each of the different

00:02:59.420 parties for a new election. Because this tells us how likely the parties are going to push for a new

00:03:06.360 election to happen. I want to go through all of the other parties and then we'll go back to the

00:03:11.740 liberals because the liberal number is quite telling. If they smelled a majority, it would be

00:03:17.440 a different result than what we are going to see here. But before we get into those numbers,

00:03:22.920 I just want to show that it's starting to be picked up by the media that the liberals are not

00:03:28.060 in a super comfortable position right now. This is coming from the National Post, an article by Tristan

00:03:33.420 Hopper, and it says, as the year ends, the conservatives are polling better than at any point since the

00:03:39.220 election. Absolutely. And although their average right now in the polls is not higher than during

00:03:45.980 the, or it's not higher than the liberals, they're still closer to the liberals than in the April

00:03:51.560 federal election. And that's really all the conservatives need. Remember, the conservatives

00:03:56.860 did not lose by hundreds of thousands of votes across the country. They only lost by a margin of 8,000

00:04:03.560 votes in the closest ridings. And the liberals ended up with like 169 seats on election day, 168,

00:04:11.360 something like that. I think they ended up flipping terrible on a couple days later or so. Even that

00:04:16.080 one still has to be litigated because the liberals only won by a single vote. And there was a bunch of

00:04:21.440 just absolute screw ups by Elections Canada that makes it kind of illegitimate just to take that result

00:04:27.000 as if it's not completely arbitrary based on which direction Elections Canada screwed up a bunch of

00:04:32.500 mail-in ballots in. I don't have any updates on that story. Hopefully more will come out. I absolutely

00:04:37.880 hope the Bloc Québécois keeps pushing that through the court system because it's ridiculous. A judge is 0.99

00:04:43.240 just going to let the liberals win by one vote when Elections Canada screwed up on multiple mail-in ballots,

00:04:49.820 probably from areas of the riding that are more likely to vote Bloc Québécois than liberal. But another

00:04:56.360 story for another day there. We're going to be going through what each of the parties feel right now

00:05:02.320 in terms of do they want a new election? And I was actually kind of surprised by the results here.

00:05:07.780 I was assuming that the entire left would not actually want to see a new election. We'll start

00:05:13.060 off with other, which is kind of just non-voters, people who just don't really care about having a

00:05:18.220 new election. I think I also have to add PPC here. I guess I can also do that. I'll just do that right

00:05:22.800 below, even though it's only like, I don't know, like 2% of the population at most. It's probably

00:05:29.180 still less than 1%. But right now, with other, so non-voters or people who just don't like any of

00:05:35.840 the options, this group wants an election by a margin of negative 25. So people who are non-voters

00:05:44.600 or don't like any of the other options are not likely to want an election. In fact, extremely not

00:05:51.800 likely to want an election. The thing is, though, that that's kind of what you'd expect. They're

00:05:57.480 mostly people who don't really care about elections that much anyways, since they don't have a party

00:06:02.740 they particularly like. But now we're going to go through some of the other parties. I want to be

00:06:08.900 respectful of the PPC a little bit, and at least grab a purple pen for them. We'll start from the

00:06:14.180 smallest to the largest right here. So the PPC for a new election are a plus 33%. Plus 33 want an election

00:06:25.400 from the PPC's ranks. After that, you have the Green Party, which this surprised me. Ooh, that's the

00:06:33.560 green one I want to get rid of. I keep grabbing the green one. It's out of ink. Sorry for my ramshackle

00:06:38.880 show here, guys. The greens were shocking to me. The greens are not only a positive, but they are a

00:06:45.340 plus 31%. I assume you guys know what this means in terms of like, if it's a negative, there are far

00:06:52.480 more people who don't want it than want it. If it's a positive, there are far more people who want it

00:06:57.000 than don't want it. And this is a poll of like 1900 people, 1500 people from Ipsos. So it's a good

00:07:02.320 sample size here. So we have other negative 25. We have Green plus 31, PPC plus 33. Let's go to the

00:07:11.500 NDP next, who I actually believe scored below the Bloc Québécois when it came to the national vote.

00:07:18.620 But regardless, they're also smaller when it comes to seats. The NDP, another surprise, not as much as

00:07:24.160 the greens, but they are a plus 13% for wanting a new election. Now this is wildly different than

00:07:32.880 Jagmeet Singh's extremely timid leadership of the NDP. The NDP may have not been able to win the last

00:07:40.040 election when Polyev was still up by, you know, 14, 17, 20 points in the polls, but he was higher than he

00:07:47.540 used to be. In many of the polls, he was over 20%. And in the last election, I think they got like 16 or

00:07:52.740 so. He would have picked up a large swath of seats if he had allowed pure Polyev to trigger a new 0.95

00:07:58.820 election. But he kept defending the liberals in this vain attempt to try and make sure the

00:08:04.060 conservatives didn't win, which just made the NDP completely irrelevant, which is why they only have

00:08:09.100 seven seats right now. But it looks like those who are remaining as NDP voters tend to be far more

00:08:15.480 aggressive in wanting to take the liberals out, probably feeling betrayed by them. The liberals did not

00:08:21.160 allow them to have official party status. They've been completely ignored most of the time in

00:08:26.240 parliament. Carney kind of just aggressively attempts to push whatever he wants through and then badgers

00:08:30.640 people into a voting for it. This is why Carney actually kind of wants a new election too. At the

00:08:36.020 same time, he's also scared of it. Carney does not like working with other parties at all. He is used

00:08:41.520 to just bulldozing anything he wants through and letting other people deal with the messy details.

00:08:46.480 Him having to negotiate with other parties really gets under his skin. But now let's get to the

00:08:51.960 Bloc Québécois. This is less of a shock, but it's a pretty high margin of Bloc voters who want a new

00:08:57.900 election. They are a plus 26 percent prospect right now when it comes to voters enthusiastic for a new

00:09:07.040 election. That one doesn't need to be explained too much. The Bloc wants seats back from the liberals.

00:09:12.720 Carney has supposedly betrayed Quebec in his most recent budget. As an Albertan, I would just

00:09:19.240 disagree. I think Quebec tends to get a lot of what it wants, but at least in the Bloc's mind,

00:09:23.980 they have been shortchanging Quebec, and that's why we need a new election. Mark Carney can't be

00:09:30.020 trusted. And he said multiple times now, Yves-Francois Blanchet, the Bloc Québécois leader, that he is going

00:09:36.120 to push for a new election or he's not going to support anything this government's doing. He did not vote

00:09:40.820 for the budget at all. In fact, no Bloc Québécois MP voted for the budget or even abstained, so they

00:09:48.660 didn't even put up with the games that the other parties were doing to try and make sure the budget

00:09:52.040 still passed by having a few people abstain. I don't blame the other parties for having people abstain.

00:09:57.420 We did not need a Christmas election. That would have benefited the liberals because every party

00:10:01.980 involved in triggering a Christmas election looks like the Grinch party and a lot of people are just not

00:10:06.720 going to turn out for them. But now let's get to the conservatives. Now, I'm not surprised that

00:10:14.020 conservatives like myself want an election, but I'm surprised that they actually outpace even the PPC

00:10:19.340 here. The conservatives want a new election by a margin of plus 56. This basically means the amount

00:10:29.300 of conservatives who don't want a new election might be around like 25, you know, 30 or so. It's

00:10:36.720 just a massive margin for conservatives wanting a new election. Pure Polyev, after he clears his 0.95

00:10:43.960 leadership review in January, probably getting really good grades, will have a lot of new momentum going

00:10:49.880 into a new election. And remember, the only reason the NDP also don't want an election this second

00:10:55.200 is because they are without a leader, because they're currently going through a leadership race,

00:10:59.680 which I predict Heather McPherson is going to win. I think that she's going to be kind of like the 1.00

00:11:04.000 default choice as the one person who actually is a currently sitting MP. And the good thing is she's

00:11:09.460 probably going to claw more votes away from the Liberal Party than the conservatives, because although

00:11:14.020 she pretends to be somewhat in favor of oil and gas because she's an Edmonton area NDP MP, at the same

00:11:20.600 time, she mostly has appeal with social progressives, urban voters, and people who are on the Green

00:11:27.780 Left, who currently Mark Carney is alienating with his Memorandum of Understanding with Alberta, which

00:11:32.980 ironically will probably not result in any pipelines. So Carney is somehow both ticking off business

00:11:38.080 liberals and the Green Left at the same time. But now let's get to the unveiling of what liberals want.

00:11:45.140 So the liberals, unsurprisingly, are a negative. They do not want a new election,

00:11:49.940 because even though maybe the liberals would like to have a majority, liberals feel like they won,

00:11:55.940 and an election is an unnecessary risk to what they had just voted in. The liberals, though,

00:12:02.160 are not just a negative, they are a negative 58%. So if a new election gets triggered, not only are the

00:12:12.920 liberals not polling that well right now compared to how they did on election day relative to the

00:12:18.660 conservatives, but their own supporters would probably be fairly unmotivated to even show up

00:12:24.180 and vote. They just gave Mark Carney a new government. What are you talking about? You already broke it.

00:12:30.000 You need us to vote for it again. It doesn't matter if it's conservatives who trigger the election. A lot

00:12:34.840 of voters feel like, well, we just voted you in. How did it all fall apart? How did you not create a

00:12:39.800 coalition government with the NDP or the bloc? How did you screw this up so badly?

00:12:44.120 And yes, the liberals could technically get a majority government if they get a couple more

00:12:49.900 people to cross the floor. The problem is it will be a bare majority or only a majority of one extra

00:12:56.000 MP. And if they do that, all the parties, the bets will be off. All of the parties will basically start

00:13:02.080 trying to gum up the gears of government as much as possible, slow everything to a halt, have endless

00:13:08.080 amendments, endless motion votes, endless everything all the time, and make sure that Mark Carney can barely

00:13:13.740 operate. Because there's kind of like a decorum that exists in parliament, where this is what I

00:13:19.540 call, this is what's called pairing. And it's just one example of how the opposition is usually trying

00:13:23.800 to be nice to the government. And it's kind of a vice versa thing. If a liberal MP needs to go to a

00:13:29.700 dental appointment, and they have to go back to their home riding where their dentist lives, and

00:13:33.480 they'll be gone for a few days, a conservative or an NDP will typically agree that they are going to

00:13:39.260 sit out the next vote in order to allow that person to like know it. So the balance of power is not

00:13:44.960 thrown off by someone just simply needing to go for a checkup or some other preplanned thing that

00:13:50.840 they cannot miss. If the liberals basically cheat their way into a majority by getting floor crossers, 1.00

00:13:56.700 the decorum is going out the window. And Mark Carney is going to have a harder time than ever to

00:14:01.060 actually get anything done, because he's going to have to hold his own MPs hostage in the House of

00:14:05.680 Commons, making sure they are there to vote for absolutely everything. Nobody can go home. And

00:14:10.500 the opposition will be making sure to put up votes every five seconds to make sure nothing gets done

00:14:15.180 in a day. And overall, the total right now for Canadians wanting a new election is quite good.

00:14:22.940 The total, in fact, obviously, it's not going to be massive. But it is, I will use,

00:14:30.020 we'll use a different color, we'll use this dark green, just for variety sake. Right now,

00:14:36.260 we have, oh, that's a terrible 10. What the heck? Well, now I know why I don't use that one. 0.73

00:14:42.280 Goodness, that was horrible. We'll just use black, I guess. But it's right now, across the country, 1.00

00:14:49.720 a plus two for a new election. That is pretty crazy, because I remember seeing some polls that

00:14:56.220 were kind of asking people like a few months ago, what do you think about an early election?

00:15:00.040 What do you think about December election? And this is what I mean, you do not want to be the

00:15:03.580 Grinch Party stealing people's Christmas and forcing them to go into an election.

00:15:07.400 Back like a month ago, when they were asking people about a December election, it was polling

00:15:12.860 like AIDS. It was polling like the bubonic plague. It was like negative 27% of Canadians nationally

00:15:20.280 wanted an election in December. But now that we're going into the new year, and the timeline's a little

00:15:25.040 bit wider for people, it's now a plus two. So that's a big turnaround when you simply change

00:15:30.380 the season. I know there are people out there saying the conservatives are hypocrites because 0.97

00:15:34.340 Andrew Scheer and someone else hid behind the curtains to make sure that the liberals' budget 0.60

00:15:39.320 passed. I'm like, yeah, because now the amount of people who want an election is a plus two,

00:15:44.600 not a negative 27. Timing is everything in politics. We're never going to be able to change that.

00:15:50.860 Yes, should everyone like us want to talk about politics all the time and always want to vote?

00:15:56.380 Sure. But also, guys, we have to acknowledge we're freaks. We care about politics, which makes

00:16:01.240 us freaks. Most people don't care, and they just care that you are disrupting their holidays.

00:16:05.760 But if it's a spring 2026 election, and the liberals continue to fail to get anything substantial done,

00:16:11.960 yeah, you're going to see that go up way more. At the same time, the liberal number is probably

00:16:16.360 going to start going down, because you're going to find a lot more liberals are feeling a bit

00:16:20.140 queasy about where the numbers are at. I'm not even kidding. If you go through all of the numbers

00:16:25.840 right now for where the conservatives and liberals stand when it comes to the different pollsters,

00:16:32.420 it's pretty much a tie across the board. I'll even bring up something on screen for you guys here.

00:16:36.740 We're not going to put it on the whiteboard, but let's just put this on the screen so you get the

00:16:40.340 point of where the averages are going. Are the liberals still ahead? Sure, but the chart I'm about

00:16:46.040 to show you does, in fact, take into account all polls, not just the ones I trust. I do not trust

00:16:53.900 ECOS. Oh, actually, in fact, the conservatives are currently leading. But even this one takes

00:16:59.660 into account places like ECOS, which is run by Frank Graves. It's a trash pollster. As of December 0.99

00:17:06.220 27th, the polling average was 38.4% conservative, 37.8% liberal, 15.8% NDP, greens 5.8%, and PPC 2.4%.

00:17:18.080 You can see a big change over time there between the liberals and the conservatives. Or am I looking

00:17:23.380 at the wrong chart here? No, oh no, that's British Columbia there. Ah, there we go, federal. No,

00:17:29.020 the liberals are still leading. Okay, come on, give me federal. I'm messing this up, guys. I'm

00:17:37.260 filling your minds with fake news. Can we find the full one here? Oh my goodness. Okay, well,

00:17:46.260 we messed it up. I took you guys down to detour. That did not matter. But I believe my original

00:17:51.160 prediction or my original assumption was right. Right now, the conservatives are like about a point

00:17:56.720 behind the liberals federally. But remember, the conservative vote is more efficient than the

00:18:01.120 liberal vote. Conservatives getting 1% less than the liberals in a national election would in fact

00:18:06.860 beat the liberals when it comes to seats. And it went from a gap in the summer, like June, July,

00:18:12.120 the liberals were running an average gap of like seven points over the conservatives. Now it's a

00:18:17.380 point. And that point is going to keep getting smaller. And then the liberal conservatives are going

00:18:21.920 to start opening up an average lead as the liberals, again, fail to get a trade deal done,

00:18:27.740 fail to get a pipeline done. The economy starts slowing down even more. They just gave another

00:18:33.320 $2.5 billion to Ukraine. Is it a loan that they eventually have to pay back? Sure. But I'd rather

00:18:39.480 give them a loan while our deficit was not $78 billion already. I don't even mind some foreign aid.

00:18:46.060 It's fine. But how about we just do some other smart things at the same time to offset the cost of

00:18:51.220 supporting Ukraine? Like, you know, having a coherent economic, you know, like having a coherent

00:18:56.660 economic growth agenda, rather than keeping taxes really high, and then just trying to inject money

00:19:01.600 into the system. But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys. Thank you for watching. Hit the

00:19:07.920 join button if you want to become a member of the channel. And I will see you guys all next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - December 29, 2025

Liberals running from a 2026 Election! Carney is on thin ice!

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