Liberals sneak past Confidence Vote - Carney on THIN ICE!
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Summary
Wyatt Claypool reacts to the Liberal government passing the Throne Speech with a division vote, and what that means for the future of the government and the possibility of a new election. Also, what is going on with Jagmeet Singh?
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Just over an hour ago, Mark Carney's Liberal government
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pulled a very sneaky move and passed the throne speech with a division vote that allowed them to
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avoid having the NDP actually a vote to approve it. So the government is not going to fall today,
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although I don't think that it was ever going to fall, although it is currently on thin ice when
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it comes to their partners in the NDP. They are technically working with each other,
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but it seems like Mark Carney knows that NDP votes are not assured. No party is really
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incentivized in this moment to go to a new election, but the fact that he had to call a division vote
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rather than actually having a vote where people say yay or nay is quite telling. Watch this. This
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is Kevin Lemieux in the House quickly pushing through the vote, basically saying, we're going to put it
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through as long as nobody opposes it. And it's a pretty empty room and there was really nobody there
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to say nay or at least nobody organized enough to actually force a real vote. And this seems like
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the only way that they could actually get it through here.
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Mr. Speaker, there have been discussions among the parties and if you seek it, I believe you'll find
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the Imam's consent for the following motion, that notwithstanding any standing order or usual
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practice of the House, A, the address be engrossed and forwarded to His Majesty the King, B, an address
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to be presented to Her Excellency, the Governor General praying that Her Excellency will be pleased
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pleased to transmit to transmit to His Majesty the King, an engrossed address which the Commons
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of Canada and Parliament assembled, adopted in reply to His Majesty's speech at the opening
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of the first session of the 45th Parliament and see the address be engrossed and presented
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to Her Excellency, the Governor General by the Speaker.
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All those opposed to the Honourable Members moving the motion will please say nay.
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The House has heard the terms of the motion, all those opposed to the motion will please
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So that was literally how the throne speech was passed.
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And what you'll notice in the bottom right of the screen, you can see Andrew Scheer there
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speaking to Liberal House Leader Mark Gerritsen.
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I'm wondering if a deal was cut with the NDP and the Conservatives and the Bloc that you guys
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don't want an election right now, we don't want an election right now, but the NDP will
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not stand up and vote in favor of the throne speech, so just let it happen.
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Now again, I know some people will be saying, why don't the Conservatives get in there and
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force a vote so then we can go to a new election, I would say that I don't think any party is
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quite sure what would happen in a new election.
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Maybe you would think it's still a good idea to roll the dice, but at the very least I would
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say that those who are currently in Parliament aren't sure if there would actually be a positive
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outcome for them, so they will let the Liberals go on with this government at least for a little
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Especially if you're the party that forces a new election literally just a month and ten
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days since the last election, that could look really bad on you, so at the very least they're
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just going to say, okay, we'll let the Liberals have it for a little bit, but again, if the
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Liberals were confident in their ability to kick the NDP into voting for what they wanted
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them to, they would have called a real vote and actually had people raise their hands and
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say aye and actually show that they can command the majority of the House.
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They cannot, so they had this silly division vote in order to get it quickly stuck through.
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Nobody was really in the room for it, and that is a major show of weakness.
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The Liberal Party right now is on thin ice with the NDP.
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It looks like Don Davies, the current interim leader of the NDP, and maybe he's going to be
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the official leader once they have a leadership race, looks like he is following Jack Layton's
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model from 2004 on how the NDP should act with a liberal minority government.
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Obviously, the Jagmeet Singh way of doing things was not working because after 2019 and 2021,
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when the NDP had tons of leverage, they never used it because they were scared of a conservative
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I want the conservatives to win, but if you put yourself in the frame of mind of the NDP,
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either you have to pick one of two things, that we care about expanding the seats as much as
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possible, or we care about getting a government as liberal as realistically possible.
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Obviously, the NDP is not going to win government, and so the best they can usually do is have
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a liberal government in place that they can convince to be a little bit more leftist.
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And that's what Jagmeet Singh got, and he won no awards for it because nobody really pays
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attention to parliament that much, where they're going to give Jagmeet credit for slight alterations
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to the universal dental program that he forced through, or the pharmacare program, or other
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sorts of benefits that he was able to extract from the liberal government.
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Nobody is such a wonk that they really care that he ended up adding another 10% to the budget
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So Don Davies is doing this the Jack Layton way, where what he's going to do is every
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time the liberals cross him, he is going to run at them hard and vote no, unless they
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find a convenient way around it to not make Don Davies have to vote no.
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It's a far smarter way of doing this, because right now, basically, except for the conservatives,
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all the parties are kind of broke after this election.
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The liberals have an easier time fundraising because they've gotten rid of Justin Trudeau,
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and they just won an election, so they probably have an easier time going to their donors and
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saying, give us money because we can actually win next time again.
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But the conservatives have always had a pretty good fundraising machine, and I guarantee they
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still have a lot of money left over from this last election because they were absolutely
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killing it in fundraising for a few years, but not the NDP.
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NDP is pretty broke right now, and they just had an abysmal election performance.
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They probably at least need a year in order to prove that they're back, that they're going
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to be fighty, that if you give them money, they're actually going to gain seats.
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And if Don Davies does that, they may actually be able to go from seven seats up to 15, up
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to 30, following the Jack Layton precedent, where whenever you have an opportunity to gain
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You always make sure to force an election when you can gain something, unlike Jagmeet Singh,
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who would get cold feet because, oh my goodness, Pierre Polyev may be the prime minister,
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From the NDP's perspective, that's bad because they're conservative and were leftists, and
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But that didn't work in the long run because if the NDP just exists to keep the liberals in
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power and the conservatives out, why not just vote for the liberals because that's the
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He knows he doesn't have the confidence in the NDP.
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The NDP, the Bloc Québécois, had also said that they would not vote for the throne speech.
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The conservatives didn't say yes or no, probably because they were just going to let them pass
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But right now, the NDP is flexing their muscles.
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I guarantee if the liberal government tries to do anything out of the box, that they try
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and do anything conservative in order to placate some more conservative members of their base.
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Because when they won 43% of the vote, you have to realize a lot of those people are probably
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red Tories who could have voted conservative depending on how the election went.
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So Carney's in this balancing act where he can't seem as overtly leftist as Justin Trudeau
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But because if he goes too leftist, he looks really bad to those red Tories.
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But if he goes too right, the NDP will whack him in order to try and gain seats.
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Really, the funniest thing about all this is like 50% of what the NDP is bad at Mark Carney
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for is not lowering the threshold for them to be an official party.
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So they got some extra legislative funding because they fell below the threshold of 12
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seats, which means that they don't get, I believe it's probably more like 30 or 40%
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more funding than they usually would get to in order to hire legislative assistance and
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So that party's broke literally as a party, and they are pretty, they're a strap for cash
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when it comes to even their legislative budgets.
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So this is the current situation that Mark Carney sees himself in.
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If you look at the polling, and I would clarify, the polling was not 100% accurate in the 2025
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But it's not like some people are saying don't trust the polls.
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But when you saw a poll come out, you'd always have to make the adjustment in your mind that
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the liberals are probably 1% lower, and the conservatives are probably a point and a half
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So many polls show the conservatives at like 39% or 40% when they came in at 41 and a half.
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So many polls would show the liberals at 44% or so when they really came in around like
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But right now, the polls do show the liberals in a bit of a honeymoon.
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But if they call the election, everyone will see them as the problem, and they will fall
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If the conservatives call an election, they currently have a deficit, and I think a lot
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Let Mark Carney at least govern for a little bit, guys, because as bad as he's going to
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be as prime minister, you get this kind of fairly silly sense of fair play from the public
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that at least let him have a little bit, even though he's already acting like Trudeau's
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But at the very least, you have to let them mess up first.
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So yeah, we're in a bit of a stalemate in Parliament right now.
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Hold your horses, guys, if you really want an election.
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I don't think it's very good for anybody to have the election right now.
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You have to give it a little bit of time to build the narrative that the liberal government
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I would say when the budget comes out in the fall, that's the time when the parties can
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start pushing for a new election, when basically it's been proven that the liberal government
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hasn't changed at all, they haven't budged an inch, they're still a big spending party
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who is not actually going to reform the way they do anything.
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And then the NDP will whine because they're not spending enough money and they're not supporting
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working families enough or whatever, the NDP is going to cry about that next time.
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But at the very least, they're being kind of smart about it right now with the seven seats
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that they do have in order to hold Mark Carney accountable.
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It's not the type of accountability I want because it's accountability from the left.
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But Carney's in this weird, awkward position where he's very used to getting his way.
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And now that he's not getting his way, he's not negotiating with the NDP.
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He's just kind of hammering things through or trying to sneak things through without their
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If you like my political updates, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel,
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And no doubt we will have updates more on what went on with this division vote as things