The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Liberals sneak past Confidence Vote - Carney on THIN ICE!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Just over an hour ago, Mark Carney's Liberal government

00:00:06.180 pulled a very sneaky move and passed the throne speech with a division vote that allowed them to

00:00:12.420 avoid having the NDP actually a vote to approve it. So the government is not going to fall today,

00:00:19.280 although I don't think that it was ever going to fall, although it is currently on thin ice when

00:00:24.600 it comes to their partners in the NDP. They are technically working with each other,

00:00:29.060 but it seems like Mark Carney knows that NDP votes are not assured. No party is really

00:00:35.180 incentivized in this moment to go to a new election, but the fact that he had to call a division vote

00:00:41.400 rather than actually having a vote where people say yay or nay is quite telling. Watch this. This

00:00:47.900 is Kevin Lemieux in the House quickly pushing through the vote, basically saying, we're going to put it

00:00:53.760 through as long as nobody opposes it. And it's a pretty empty room and there was really nobody there

00:00:58.260 to say nay or at least nobody organized enough to actually force a real vote. And this seems like

00:01:04.220 the only way that they could actually get it through here.

00:01:06.380 Mr. Speaker, there have been discussions among the parties and if you seek it, I believe you'll find

00:01:11.420 the Imam's consent for the following motion, that notwithstanding any standing order or usual

00:01:15.800 practice of the House, A, the address be engrossed and forwarded to His Majesty the King, B, an address

00:01:23.380 to be presented to Her Excellency, the Governor General praying that Her Excellency will be pleased

00:01:29.180 pleased to transmit to transmit to His Majesty the King, an engrossed address which the Commons

00:01:34.520 of Canada and Parliament assembled, adopted in reply to His Majesty's speech at the opening

00:01:40.440 of the first session of the 45th Parliament and see the address be engrossed and presented

00:01:47.060 to Her Excellency, the Governor General by the Speaker.

00:01:50.180 All those opposed to the Honourable Members moving the motion will please say nay.

00:01:57.180 Agreed.

00:01:58.180 The House has heard the terms of the motion, all those opposed to the motion will please

00:02:03.180 say nay.

00:02:04.180 Carried.

00:02:05.180 So that was literally how the throne speech was passed.

00:02:12.020 And what you'll notice in the bottom right of the screen, you can see Andrew Scheer there

00:02:17.780 speaking to Liberal House Leader Mark Gerritsen.

00:02:21.020 I'm wondering if a deal was cut with the NDP and the Conservatives and the Bloc that you guys

00:02:27.020 don't want an election right now, we don't want an election right now, but the NDP will

00:02:31.280 not stand up and vote in favor of the throne speech, so just let it happen.

00:02:36.340 Now again, I know some people will be saying, why don't the Conservatives get in there and

00:02:40.020 force a vote so then we can go to a new election, I would say that I don't think any party is

00:02:44.880 quite sure what would happen in a new election.

00:02:48.160 Maybe you would think it's still a good idea to roll the dice, but at the very least I would

00:02:53.040 say that those who are currently in Parliament aren't sure if there would actually be a positive

00:02:57.640 outcome for them, so they will let the Liberals go on with this government at least for a little

00:03:02.640 bit.

00:03:03.640 Especially if you're the party that forces a new election literally just a month and ten

00:03:08.500 days since the last election, that could look really bad on you, so at the very least they're

00:03:14.040 just going to say, okay, we'll let the Liberals have it for a little bit, but again, if the

00:03:18.620 Liberals were confident in their ability to kick the NDP into voting for what they wanted

00:03:23.660 them to, they would have called a real vote and actually had people raise their hands and

00:03:28.400 say aye and actually show that they can command the majority of the House.

00:03:32.460 They cannot, so they had this silly division vote in order to get it quickly stuck through.

00:03:38.780 Nobody was really in the room for it, and that is a major show of weakness.

00:03:44.340 The Liberal Party right now is on thin ice with the NDP.

00:03:48.940 It looks like Don Davies, the current interim leader of the NDP, and maybe he's going to be

00:03:53.880 the official leader once they have a leadership race, looks like he is following Jack Layton's

00:03:59.200 model from 2004 on how the NDP should act with a liberal minority government.

00:04:04.880 Obviously, the Jagmeet Singh way of doing things was not working because after 2019 and 2021,

00:04:11.920 when the NDP had tons of leverage, they never used it because they were scared of a conservative

00:04:17.180 government coming in.

00:04:18.460 Now, I'm a conservative.

00:04:19.760 I want the conservatives to win, but if you put yourself in the frame of mind of the NDP,

00:04:25.820 either you have to pick one of two things, that we care about expanding the seats as much as

00:04:31.080 possible, or we care about getting a government as liberal as realistically possible.

00:04:36.920 Obviously, the NDP is not going to win government, and so the best they can usually do is have

00:04:43.180 a liberal government in place that they can convince to be a little bit more leftist.

00:04:48.100 And that's what Jagmeet Singh got, and he won no awards for it because nobody really pays

00:04:53.620 attention to parliament that much, where they're going to give Jagmeet credit for slight alterations 0.62

00:05:00.120 to the universal dental program that he forced through, or the pharmacare program, or other

00:05:04.900 sorts of benefits that he was able to extract from the liberal government.

00:05:08.700 Nobody is such a wonk that they really care that he ended up adding another 10% to the budget

00:05:15.880 of some of these programs.

00:05:17.220 It doesn't matter.

00:05:18.100 So Don Davies is doing this the Jack Layton way, where what he's going to do is every

00:05:23.940 time the liberals cross him, he is going to run at them hard and vote no, unless they

00:05:28.340 find a convenient way around it to not make Don Davies have to vote no.

00:05:32.580 It's a far smarter way of doing this, because right now, basically, except for the conservatives,

00:05:38.600 all the parties are kind of broke after this election.

00:05:41.200 The liberals have an easier time fundraising because they've gotten rid of Justin Trudeau,

00:05:45.260 and they just won an election, so they probably have an easier time going to their donors and

00:05:50.180 saying, give us money because we can actually win next time again.

00:05:53.240 But the conservatives have always had a pretty good fundraising machine, and I guarantee they

00:05:57.380 still have a lot of money left over from this last election because they were absolutely

00:06:01.580 killing it in fundraising for a few years, but not the NDP.

00:06:05.280 NDP is pretty broke right now, and they just had an abysmal election performance.

00:06:09.740 They probably at least need a year in order to prove that they're back, that they're going

00:06:14.660 to be fighty, that if you give them money, they're actually going to gain seats.

00:06:18.400 And if Don Davies does that, they may actually be able to go from seven seats up to 15, up

00:06:23.340 to 30, following the Jack Layton precedent, where whenever you have an opportunity to gain

00:06:28.220 seats, you force an election.

00:06:29.920 You always make sure to force an election when you can gain something, unlike Jagmeet Singh,

00:06:34.420 who would get cold feet because, oh my goodness, Pierre Polyev may be the prime minister,

00:06:38.140 which would have been a good thing for Canada.

00:06:39.620 But I digress.

00:06:40.940 From the NDP's perspective, that's bad because they're conservative and were leftists, and

00:06:45.460 the liberals are at least sort of leftist.

00:06:47.580 In reality, they're very leftist.

00:06:49.200 The NDP just happens to be very, very leftist.

00:06:52.000 But that didn't work in the long run because if the NDP just exists to keep the liberals in

00:06:56.800 power and the conservatives out, why not just vote for the liberals because that's the

00:07:00.780 more efficient way of doing this?

00:07:02.840 So at the moment, Mark Carney's on thin ice.

00:07:05.380 He knows he doesn't have the confidence in the NDP.

00:07:07.500 The NDP, the Bloc Québécois, had also said that they would not vote for the throne speech.

00:07:12.040 The conservatives didn't say yes or no, probably because they were just going to let them pass

00:07:15.700 it through this division vote.

00:07:17.200 But right now, the NDP is flexing their muscles.

00:07:19.620 I guarantee if the liberal government tries to do anything out of the box, that they try

00:07:25.840 and do anything conservative in order to placate some more conservative members of their base.

00:07:30.640 Because when they won 43% of the vote, you have to realize a lot of those people are probably 0.63

00:07:35.140 red Tories who could have voted conservative depending on how the election went.

00:07:40.020 So Carney's in this balancing act where he can't seem as overtly leftist as Justin Trudeau

00:07:44.640 was at times.

00:07:45.660 He still absolutely is a leftist.

00:07:47.900 But because if he goes too leftist, he looks really bad to those red Tories. 0.89

00:07:51.960 But if he goes too right, the NDP will whack him in order to try and gain seats.

00:07:55.160 Really, the funniest thing about all this is like 50% of what the NDP is bad at Mark Carney

00:08:02.160 for is not lowering the threshold for them to be an official party.

00:08:06.320 They want the threshold knocked down.

00:08:08.280 So they got some extra legislative funding because they fell below the threshold of 12

00:08:13.380 seats, which means that they don't get, I believe it's probably more like 30 or 40%

00:08:17.740 more funding than they usually would get to in order to hire legislative assistance and

00:08:21.780 research people.

00:08:22.480 So that party's broke literally as a party, and they are pretty, they're a strap for cash

00:08:27.760 when it comes to even their legislative budgets.

00:08:30.440 So this is the current situation that Mark Carney sees himself in.

00:08:33.860 If you look at the polling, and I would clarify, the polling was not 100% accurate in the 2025

00:08:39.500 federal election.

00:08:41.380 But it's not like some people are saying don't trust the polls.

00:08:44.040 The polls were pretty good.

00:08:45.740 But when you saw a poll come out, you'd always have to make the adjustment in your mind that

00:08:49.500 the liberals are probably 1% lower, and the conservatives are probably a point and a half

00:08:53.120 higher.

00:08:53.800 So many polls show the conservatives at like 39% or 40% when they came in at 41 and a half.

00:08:59.780 So many polls would show the liberals at 44% or so when they really came in around like

00:09:04.440 43%.

00:09:04.780 So in general, the polls weren't too bad.

00:09:08.140 But right now, the polls do show the liberals in a bit of a honeymoon.

00:09:11.100 But if they call the election, everyone will see them as the problem, and they will fall

00:09:15.240 down the polls.

00:09:15.980 If the conservatives call an election, they currently have a deficit, and I think a lot

00:09:19.560 of Canadians would see that as whiny.

00:09:22.020 Let Mark Carney at least govern for a little bit, guys, because as bad as he's going to 0.73

00:09:26.480 be as prime minister, you get this kind of fairly silly sense of fair play from the public

00:09:31.720 that at least let him have a little bit, even though he's already acting like Trudeau's

00:09:35.980 government was previously.

00:09:37.520 But at the very least, you have to let them mess up first.

00:09:41.840 So yeah, we're in a bit of a stalemate in Parliament right now.

00:09:45.420 Hold your horses, guys, if you really want an election.

00:09:48.100 I don't think it's very good for anybody to have the election right now.

00:09:51.580 You have to give it a little bit of time to build the narrative that the liberal government

00:09:55.800 is no different than Trudeau's people.

00:09:58.020 I would say when the budget comes out in the fall, that's the time when the parties can

00:10:02.160 start pushing for a new election, when basically it's been proven that the liberal government

00:10:06.280 hasn't changed at all, they haven't budged an inch, they're still a big spending party

00:10:10.420 who is not actually going to reform the way they do anything.

00:10:13.760 And then the NDP will whine because they're not spending enough money and they're not supporting

00:10:16.980 working families enough or whatever, the NDP is going to cry about that next time. 0.80

00:10:21.360 But at the very least, they're being kind of smart about it right now with the seven seats

00:10:25.700 that they do have in order to hold Mark Carney accountable.

00:10:29.440 It's not the type of accountability I want because it's accountability from the left.

00:10:33.020 But Carney's in this weird, awkward position where he's very used to getting his way.

00:10:37.760 And now that he's not getting his way, he's not negotiating with the NDP.

00:10:40.240 He's just kind of hammering things through or trying to sneak things through without their

00:10:44.420 approval.

00:10:45.660 Let's see how it works out for him.

00:10:47.460 But that should be it for me today, guys.

00:10:49.800 If you like my political updates, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel,

00:10:53.260 leave a comment, do all that fantastic stuff.

00:10:55.260 And no doubt we will have updates more on what went on with this division vote as things

00:11:00.260 come out in the next couple of days.

00:11:02.080 See you guys later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - June 05, 2025

Liberals sneak past Confidence Vote - Carney on THIN ICE!

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