The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Liberals suffer BIG DECLINE in 2025 - Carney fears a 2026 election!

00:00:00.000 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back for the final time in the year 2025 to break down some Canadian national polling numbers.

00:00:09.360 In this video, I want to take you guys through where Mark Carney's Liberals were on election night in April,

00:00:16.640 and where they are now based on polling averages across all of the different regions.

00:00:22.760 I'm even going to be using a polling average that includes pollsters like ECOS.

00:00:28.480 It's not just that I don't like ECOS, they're not accurate.

00:00:32.860 They're obviously a very pro-liberal pollster that uses very heavily liberal samples, but it only makes my point better.

00:00:41.320 I can use polling averages that are going to be leaning more liberal than reality is,

00:00:47.160 and it will still show Carney's Liberals have had a significant decline since the April federal election.

00:00:54.080 And if I take Prime Minister Mark Carney at his word that this is a new liberal government,

00:01:01.240 then it is possibly one of the fastest declining new governments in Canadian history in terms of their support.

00:01:08.820 Because usually a new government, a truly new government, you know,

00:01:12.780 it was previously one party that was in power and now it's a new party,

00:01:16.420 that party typically gets the benefit of the doubt from Canadians for at least a few years.

00:01:21.880 They usually have one or two years where even if they're not doing a great job,

00:01:26.480 people say, well, give them a chance.

00:01:28.420 Let's wait and see what they actually do over a few years.

00:01:32.060 With Carney, no.

00:01:33.780 He is down from election day.

00:01:36.660 He had a big honeymoon in the summer of 2025,

00:01:40.200 but as people started noticing he's not that much different than Justin Trudeau

00:01:44.340 and in some ways worse than Trudeau,

00:01:46.120 he fell far below where he was at his peak and now he's actually below election day.

00:01:53.220 It's not a very good position for Carney to be in going into 2026,

00:01:58.780 considering we are likely to have another federal election

00:02:02.260 and he is at his weakest point since becoming Prime Minister.

00:02:06.720 But anyways, before I get into it,

00:02:09.400 I just quickly want to give a shout out to the channel members.

00:02:12.580 Thank you guys for making the channel more sustainable for me

00:02:15.740 and making me less reliant on YouTube's kind of backwards algorithm at times.

00:02:21.020 If you guys want to help sustain the channel too and you're not yet a member,

00:02:24.460 you can hit the join button below the video

00:02:26.740 and it will allow you to join one of the two fairly low cost tiers.

00:02:31.140 And effectively, again, it's just making the channel more sustainable for me.

00:02:34.940 I don't want to turn this into a hierarchical channel

00:02:37.320 where I only talk to people who are channel members.

00:02:39.620 I may reply to channel members quicker than other people,

00:02:43.840 but I always try and go through and reply to comments from all sorts of people

00:02:47.360 because I don't really want this being like, you know,

00:02:50.060 only certain people get to watch videos early

00:02:52.620 or I make exclusive content for only people who pay.

00:02:55.140 I'd rather just keep it all out in the public.

00:02:57.300 But if you join, you do just make it easier for me to keep this thing going.

00:03:01.060 And if you can't do that, that's totally fine.

00:03:03.540 Like the video, subscribe, leave comments.

00:03:06.280 That's already good enough for me.

00:03:08.360 Anyways, now I want to take you guys through the different regions

00:03:13.340 and show you what the decline has looked like.

00:03:15.940 I'm just showing you where the liberals are at on the left side here.

00:03:19.900 And then on the right side, this is going to be sort of like the now side.

00:03:24.560 What is currently taking place in terms of the polling averages?

00:03:28.540 And I will write down all the parties on the right.

00:03:30.880 And I will tell you if the conservatives are up or the NDP is up

00:03:34.380 or even if the conservatives are down on the side.

00:03:36.720 I'm not trying to hide the ball by not showing you where the conservatives

00:03:39.620 or the other parties were on the left-hand side here.

00:03:42.300 It's just things would not fit if I wrote it all down.

00:03:45.720 But there were a lot of areas of Canada where if you saw how good the liberals did,

00:03:51.740 like in Ontario right here,

00:03:54.040 Ontario was going to be a pretty difficult province to do that well.

00:03:58.540 And again, same as Atlantic Canada, 56% in Atlantic, 49% in Ontario,

00:04:04.540 and even 42% is very, is screamingly high for the liberals out in Quebec.

00:04:10.940 Because remember, the Bloc Québécois are also in Quebec.

00:04:14.580 So it's a five-party or six-party race in many of those ridings.

00:04:18.940 Yeah, the conservatives don't do well at all in Montreal,

00:04:21.540 but still 42%, getting close to a majority of the vote is quite a bit in Quebec.

00:04:27.480 And I think that it was never going to be sustainable for the liberals in the long run,

00:04:31.560 unless they just started knocking out of the park when it comes to their policy.

00:04:35.420 But that was never going to happen.

00:04:37.680 There are too many lefty ideologues who work in this liberal government still.

00:04:42.100 That makes it impossible for them to actually pivot in a more positive direction.

00:04:46.440 But let's take this thing from the top to the bottom.

00:04:49.940 We will start off with British Columbia polling averages.

00:04:54.080 And remember, this is the stuff I'm taking from Polling Canada.

00:04:58.680 These are their polling averages.

00:05:00.480 And they, in fact, do use the ECOS polling, Spark Insight polling,

00:05:06.240 all these pollsters that have a very liberal urban sampling bias.

00:05:12.060 And what they currently have the averages at for British Columbia,

00:05:16.460 they have the conservatives leading,

00:05:18.440 and they did not actually win British Columbia in the last election.

00:05:22.460 They got about 40% of the vote, or 41, and the liberals got 42.

00:05:27.740 The conservatives, who have declined a little bit since election day,

00:05:31.080 are currently at 38% in, or 38.5,

00:05:35.960 but I'll just say 38% in British Columbia.

00:05:39.300 The liberals are at 37.8.

00:05:42.780 We'll even, I'll just throw 37.8 if I'm not saying 37.5 for them.

00:05:49.040 They're at 37.8 now in British Columbia.

00:05:52.220 And the NDP has had the biggest resurgence there,

00:05:55.800 like compared to the rest of the country.

00:05:58.260 They're currently at 15% in BC,

00:06:01.680 which is great considering, I believe, on election night,

00:06:04.980 where were they at?

00:06:05.960 They were literally at like 12 or so,

00:06:08.780 so they've gained a few more points in British Columbia.

00:06:11.840 And the Green Party of Canada has even gone up in BC,

00:06:15.500 having now gotten to 6% when they were at around 3% in the last election.

00:06:22.240 This, these are great gains for the conservatives relative to the liberals.

00:06:26.820 Yes, they're a little bit down,

00:06:27.880 but because there's more undecided voters,

00:06:30.140 there tends to be a little bit more friction in the polling between elections,

00:06:33.360 but they are now leading the liberals.

00:06:35.640 Actually, I should break this out,

00:06:36.820 because my mother was nice enough to get me a pointy stick for Christmas

00:06:40.160 for these such videos.

00:06:42.220 That, again, we've gone from 42%,

00:06:44.900 now down to 37.8 for the liberals in British Columbia.

00:06:49.520 And that was even a 42% that I had even rounded up from.

00:06:53.880 I think they were like 41.8 in the election,

00:06:56.160 and I brought them to 42%.

00:06:57.840 And this is not rounded at all.

00:06:59.620 They have gone down.

00:07:01.360 And again, they're in the driver's seat of policy right now.

00:07:05.080 If they want to be more popular,

00:07:06.920 they can go out and be more popular right now

00:07:09.700 by just fixing some of their terrible policy.

00:07:12.680 Let's now go down to Alberta here.

00:07:15.300 Let me try and find Alberta.

00:07:17.060 Alberta's not going to be much of a shock to you guys.

00:07:19.960 In fact, I think technically the conservatives are down a little bit in Alberta

00:07:23.800 since the election.

00:07:25.240 It doesn't really matter.

00:07:26.380 They're always so high, they win everything.

00:07:28.720 And it's not even a bad thing that the liberal or the conservatives are down a little bit.

00:07:33.000 But the conservatives are at 58% in Alberta.

00:07:37.580 The liberals are at 26.4%, which is actually them going down by a little bit.

00:07:44.980 Let's just put it down 26%.

00:07:46.940 The NDP is around 10% right now, despite on election day,

00:07:52.520 I think they got like eight or something like that.

00:07:54.460 The only seat that they end up retaining was Heather McPherson's.

00:07:57.800 They ended up losing Blake Desjardins.

00:08:00.140 And I think then the PPC is at like 3%.

00:08:03.440 Let's be nice to them by including them here.

00:08:05.960 But yeah, that's...

00:08:07.020 And I think that most of that PPC would just go towards the conservatives

00:08:09.800 if another federal election occurred,

00:08:11.460 because I don't see the PPC actually surviving that long.

00:08:14.840 We'll move on now to the prairies.

00:08:18.260 This is going to be...

00:08:19.980 It's just Saskatchewan and Manitoba combined effectively.

00:08:23.140 Conservatives in Saskatchewan and Manitoba are at 52.

00:08:27.540 Liberals are at 31.7%, which is actually a bit of a decline.

00:08:33.220 But let's just say that it's effectively an even province for them.

00:08:37.040 NDP is up to 11%.

00:08:39.420 And then no one else has any significant amount of vote after that.

00:08:43.420 But let's now move on to Ontario, which is obviously a big one here.

00:08:48.840 This is where the Liberals are getting the lion's share of their vote.

00:08:52.780 Liberals in Ontario are down five points on average.

00:08:57.140 Again, this is with pollsters like ECOS added in,

00:09:00.320 who give them like 52% results in Ontario.

00:09:03.680 They're at 44% on the average.

00:09:06.760 Conservatives are at 40%, which effectively represents them

00:09:11.040 not even moving much at all.

00:09:12.720 I think they were at like 41% on election night, 42% on a couple points.

00:09:17.460 Not too bad, though.

00:09:18.900 New Democrats, who were actually only at 5% in Ontario last election,

00:09:24.100 are now at 10%.

00:09:25.920 And we have the Green Party at about 3.5% as well,

00:09:31.220 which also is an increase.

00:09:32.800 It may even set them up to win back one of the seats

00:09:35.840 that they lost this last election,

00:09:37.660 although it's now Conservative-held,

00:09:39.180 so that might not be as great for the Conservatives.

00:09:41.040 Now, we have two more to fill in here.

00:09:43.360 We have Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

00:09:45.480 And then I just want to start talking about

00:09:47.160 what this is going to kind of look like

00:09:49.240 in terms of seat counts when we get to a new election.

00:09:54.260 So, can I find this here?

00:09:57.400 Let's find the Quebec one.

00:09:58.960 There we go.

00:09:59.480 This is obviously where it gets more interesting

00:10:01.900 because this is not a normal province to be around for elections.

00:10:06.640 We have the Liberals now here at 37.5% in Quebec.

00:10:13.500 Bloc Québécois is at 32.9%,

00:10:17.680 even though I believe they're only at 27 or 28 election day.

00:10:21.620 Of this point, 9, we'll just say 33

00:10:24.140 because that's a very easy roundup.

00:10:28.340 33% for the Bloc Québécois.

00:10:31.600 And then we have the Conservative Party at 19%,

00:10:37.600 which I believe is them falling by two points.

00:10:41.140 But in reality, it basically doesn't matter

00:10:43.600 if the Conservatives rise or fall in Quebec.

00:10:47.060 They pretty much always win the same seven seats

00:10:49.800 and it's not going to change anytime soon.

00:10:52.020 And then the NDP is at six,

00:10:54.220 which is significant since there are some

00:10:56.560 ridings in the city of Montreal

00:10:58.400 where all of that 6% is pretty much concentrated.

00:11:02.800 The NDP effectively only exists in Montreal

00:11:05.920 and Gatineau in Quebec,

00:11:07.660 just as the Conservatives,

00:11:09.520 although they are far wider,

00:11:11.080 they kind of exist in rural southern Quebec.

00:11:13.680 They exist in, you know, the Bowes area.

00:11:17.180 Those sort of outside suburbs of Montreal.

00:11:20.000 There can sometimes be some pro-Conservative areas

00:11:22.020 as well as Quebec City.

00:11:23.980 But this would mean that the Bloc Québécois

00:11:26.060 would be probably clawing back

00:11:28.400 five to seven seats from the Liberals.

00:11:32.140 And now we have one more province

00:11:34.480 or region to talk about.

00:11:36.180 We have Atlantic Canada,

00:11:37.840 where we have the Liberals at 52%,

00:11:42.220 which is a 4% fall since election day.

00:11:45.600 We have the Conservatives at 35%,

00:11:48.600 which is, I believe, a slight fall,

00:11:50.540 but it's not much of a fall at all.

00:11:53.400 35% for the Conservatives.

00:11:55.380 We have eight for the NDP.

00:11:58.160 And then I will be nice to them again

00:12:00.080 and write it down that the PPC

00:12:02.080 has 3% in Atlantic Canada.

00:12:06.100 But this is the current path for the Liberals

00:12:10.120 or the current trajectory

00:12:11.200 that the Liberals are on.

00:12:14.260 Again, I say it a lot.

00:12:16.020 They are in the policy driver's seat.

00:12:18.080 They could become more popular

00:12:19.560 by getting out of their own way,

00:12:21.260 actually approving a pipeline,

00:12:23.120 lowering taxes in a significant way.

00:12:25.600 A 1% decrease in taxes under $50,000

00:12:29.400 is a nothing.

00:12:31.280 Nobody cares about that at all.

00:12:32.840 It doesn't matter whatsoever.

00:12:35.740 It's not going to affect anyone's lives

00:12:37.400 in a significant way.

00:12:38.400 It's giving everyone, like, back $300

00:12:40.140 on the first $50,000 that they pay.

00:12:43.460 You don't even pay taxes on the first $18,000.

00:12:45.820 So really, it's only a cut

00:12:47.660 for, like, what is that, $32,000 of your taxes?

00:12:51.400 It's stupid.

00:12:52.180 It's just almost an insult to Canadians 1.00

00:12:54.220 to think that that was going to be enough

00:12:56.040 to win them over.

00:12:57.340 But what we have here

00:12:58.720 is we have around a 4%, 5% decrease

00:13:03.280 in British Columbia.

00:13:05.160 Let's just say that's about 4%.

00:13:07.080 In Alberta, they've gone down

00:13:09.160 by another 2%,

00:13:10.420 which could put Corey Hogan's seat

00:13:12.700 in Calgary at risk.

00:13:14.000 The only seat the Liberals currently have

00:13:15.960 in Calgary could be gone.

00:13:18.420 I think they want another one

00:13:19.620 in Edmonton, but I'm forgetting there.

00:13:23.120 In the Prairies,

00:13:25.140 they're down by 1%.

00:13:27.000 In Ontario, the Liberals are down

00:13:29.700 by 5%.

00:13:31.180 Quebec, that is, like,

00:13:33.760 about 4.5 or so.

00:13:35.860 Yeah, 4.5 points.

00:13:37.240 They're down by, let's just say,

00:13:39.080 4, to be fair to them.

00:13:40.640 And then they're down

00:13:41.760 by another 4% in Atlantic Canada.

00:13:45.340 And that's significant, too,

00:13:46.700 because it's just a fact

00:13:48.320 that Atlantic Canada

00:13:49.500 has the oldest population

00:13:51.300 in Canada on average.

00:13:52.420 And on average,

00:13:53.940 the Liberals do the best

00:13:55.200 with older Canadians.

00:13:56.640 If you are above the age of 65,

00:13:58.780 you are naturally going to be

00:14:00.060 more likely to vote

00:14:01.000 for the Liberals.

00:14:02.040 If you're above the age of 65

00:14:03.360 and you're watching my videos,

00:14:04.660 no doubt you are not

00:14:05.700 actually a Liberal.

00:14:07.040 But the problem is,

00:14:08.240 is that when you're

00:14:09.900 over the age of 65,

00:14:11.580 you're likely to be retired,

00:14:13.280 you are likely to own

00:14:14.220 your own home,

00:14:15.120 and so a lot of the bad

00:14:17.020 Liberal policy

00:14:17.840 isn't just not hitting you

00:14:19.100 as hard.

00:14:19.800 Even in Atlantic Canada,

00:14:20.880 from the impression I get

00:14:22.600 from the outside,

00:14:23.640 generally lower crime,

00:14:25.260 easier way of life.

00:14:26.720 You know, it doesn't mean

00:14:27.400 that it's not,

00:14:28.060 there's not struggle.

00:14:28.980 Obviously, there's a lot of struggle

00:14:30.200 out in Atlantic Canada,

00:14:31.220 but that's more so

00:14:32.180 if you're not already retired

00:14:34.060 and on a pension,

00:14:35.200 it's hard to find a job.

00:14:36.660 But if you are retired

00:14:37.860 and on a pension,

00:14:38.480 that may not be

00:14:39.580 the biggest problem for you.

00:14:41.680 Yeah, cost of living

00:14:42.540 still matters,

00:14:43.160 but you're more likely

00:14:44.660 to be swayed by ideas

00:14:46.680 that we have to stop

00:14:47.340 Donald Trump

00:14:47.880 in these more abstract

00:14:49.040 political issues

00:14:50.160 that for, you know,

00:14:51.500 millennial or Gen Z Canadians 0.92

00:14:53.640 just really doesn't even

00:14:55.600 like come up on your radar

00:14:57.560 or something that you

00:14:58.280 should care about.

00:14:59.340 But overall,

00:15:00.560 pretty massive decline here.

00:15:02.320 Again, 4% in BC,

00:15:04.320 2% in Alberta,

00:15:05.520 1% in the Prairies,

00:15:06.960 5% in Ontario,

00:15:08.380 4% in Quebec,

00:15:09.540 Atlantic Canada,

00:15:10.420 they're down 4%.

00:15:11.560 Now, are they still leading

00:15:13.300 when it comes to Ontario?

00:15:15.160 Sure,

00:15:15.880 but based on the distribution

00:15:17.440 of vote,

00:15:18.300 the Conservatives

00:15:18.860 could actually come out

00:15:19.580 of Ontario with more seats.

00:15:21.360 It was actually pretty close

00:15:22.440 on seats in Ontario

00:15:23.460 in this last election,

00:15:25.200 even though the Liberals

00:15:26.580 ended up winning

00:15:27.280 the popular vote

00:15:28.260 in that province

00:15:29.080 by about 7 points.

00:15:31.060 Winning by 4%

00:15:32.340 is actually maybe

00:15:33.480 not enough

00:15:34.120 for the Liberals

00:15:35.040 because if the NDP

00:15:36.680 have come up

00:15:37.600 by, like,

00:15:38.600 double their vote,

00:15:39.540 they're mostly taking votes

00:15:40.840 away from the Liberals

00:15:41.840 in the GTA ridings

00:15:43.460 where the Conservatives

00:15:44.320 almost won.

00:15:45.880 I guarantee,

00:15:48.120 especially if

00:15:48.880 Heather McPherson

00:15:49.840 is the new leader

00:15:51.400 of the NDP,

00:15:52.660 she's not going to be

00:15:53.380 poaching votes

00:15:54.460 from the Conservatives

00:15:55.600 and taking them back

00:15:56.500 to the NDP.

00:15:57.520 She's going to be taking

00:15:58.380 more of those

00:15:59.060 suburban, urban,

00:16:00.360 progressive votes

00:16:01.160 from the Liberals

00:16:02.260 over to her side,

00:16:03.600 which is going to make it

00:16:04.620 far easier to win

00:16:05.800 the GTA ridings,

00:16:07.780 far easier to win

00:16:08.760 ridings in Brampton,

00:16:09.840 Mississauga,

00:16:10.980 southwestern Ontario,

00:16:12.800 because, again,

00:16:13.360 the old private sector

00:16:15.120 union vote,

00:16:16.460 and when I say the old,

00:16:17.320 not like older,

00:16:18.560 but you just need that

00:16:19.420 kind of, you know,

00:16:20.140 well-worn NDP vote,

00:16:21.740 is not coming back

00:16:22.620 to the NDP.

00:16:23.540 That is probably

00:16:24.160 going to be poly of

00:16:25.060 for a long period

00:16:26.860 of time,

00:16:27.340 at least,

00:16:27.680 because the Conservatives

00:16:29.020 actually speak

00:16:30.260 to the concerns

00:16:31.000 of guys who work

00:16:31.820 in trades,

00:16:32.760 guys who work

00:16:33.480 in private sector

00:16:34.440 unionized jobs

00:16:36.160 where the economy

00:16:36.980 actually matters.

00:16:38.260 The NDP

00:16:38.740 are going to be

00:16:39.400 taking back

00:16:39.920 public sector union

00:16:41.140 jobs from the Liberals

00:16:42.780 in terms of those voters,

00:16:44.300 and that's going

00:16:44.820 to be hurting

00:16:45.140 the Liberals

00:16:45.640 in the Ottawa area,

00:16:46.880 going to be hurting

00:16:47.400 them in urban centers

00:16:48.840 where a lot of

00:16:50.120 the public sector

00:16:51.000 employees actually work.

00:16:53.220 And so,

00:16:53.880 this is the reason

00:16:55.480 why,

00:16:55.920 as we keep saying,

00:16:57.400 Kearney is going

00:16:58.120 to try and avoid

00:16:59.140 the next election

00:16:59.980 like the plague.

00:17:01.620 These are weak numbers.

00:17:03.740 If you're in government,

00:17:04.880 you should be wanting

00:17:05.800 to take your election

00:17:06.800 day average number.

00:17:08.420 What did they even have

00:17:09.280 on election day

00:17:09.940 just to get the total?

00:17:10.980 They had about 43.8%

00:17:13.280 of the vote.

00:17:14.200 I believe the average

00:17:15.300 these days for the Liberals

00:17:16.580 is more like 40

00:17:17.660 or 41 or so,

00:17:19.380 but the Conservatives

00:17:20.200 have a more efficient vote.

00:17:21.900 It's why the Liberals

00:17:23.080 actually beat

00:17:24.240 the Conservatives

00:17:25.080 by two and a half points

00:17:26.280 on the popular vote,

00:17:27.800 but they only barely won

00:17:29.420 on the seat count

00:17:30.780 because the closest

00:17:32.340 20 seats

00:17:33.340 that represent

00:17:34.220 the Liberals'

00:17:35.360 margin

00:17:36.080 over the Conservatives,

00:17:37.720 they only won

00:17:38.460 those collectively

00:17:39.380 by 8,000 votes.

00:17:41.340 Some of those ridings

00:17:42.140 were massive squeakers,

00:17:44.060 like they only won it

00:17:44.920 from the Conservatives

00:17:45.620 by 250 votes

00:17:47.360 or 400 votes

00:17:48.600 or even 700

00:17:49.540 or 100.

00:17:51.000 That's nothing

00:17:52.060 when it comes

00:17:52.720 to federal politics

00:17:53.680 with ridings

00:17:54.560 that have the population

00:17:55.660 of a small city.

00:17:57.240 Each riding in Canada

00:17:58.320 is like 120,000 people.

00:18:01.100 Now, not everyone

00:18:01.700 can vote,

00:18:02.300 but that's usually

00:18:02.780 about 93,000 voters.

00:18:05.240 300 votes

00:18:05.940 ain't that hard to find,

00:18:06.880 especially if Carney

00:18:08.780 got in

00:18:09.400 and he didn't really

00:18:10.520 fulfill all of the promises

00:18:11.800 that he made,

00:18:12.800 you know,

00:18:13.080 like not getting

00:18:13.920 a trade deal done,

00:18:15.260 you know,

00:18:15.640 basically blowing out

00:18:16.980 the spending

00:18:17.420 like Trudeau did,

00:18:18.380 if not worse.

00:18:19.480 It actually is,

00:18:20.360 in fact,

00:18:20.860 the biggest budget deficit

00:18:22.180 since 2020

00:18:23.340 during COVID.

00:18:24.940 That's going to be

00:18:25.660 taking off

00:18:26.140 a lot of business liberals.

00:18:27.780 You're going to see

00:18:28.800 a rise in the Green Party

00:18:30.640 in some of these regions,

00:18:32.380 especially British Columbia,

00:18:33.940 over the MOU.

00:18:34.920 You're going to see

00:18:36.100 the NDP

00:18:36.880 take advantage of that.

00:18:38.360 And as I keep saying,

00:18:39.420 the funniest part about it

00:18:40.720 is it's not even like

00:18:42.980 the NDP

00:18:43.800 or the liberals

00:18:44.420 have any intention

00:18:45.220 of building a pipeline.

00:18:46.700 The memorandum

00:18:47.360 of Understanding

00:18:47.940 with Alberta

00:18:48.420 is a joke.

00:18:49.540 Danielle Smith

00:18:50.100 even knows it's a joke.

00:18:51.740 Now,

00:18:52.120 I don't blame her

00:18:53.100 for signing it.

00:18:54.220 She has to demonstrate

00:18:55.120 that she's not unwilling

00:18:56.360 to work with

00:18:57.240 the liberal government

00:18:58.020 because the liberals

00:18:58.900 would love to throw her 1.00

00:18:59.980 under the bus

00:19:00.580 for being,

00:19:01.460 quote unquote,

00:19:02.120 difficult.

00:19:03.140 She's being

00:19:03.740 anti-difficult.

00:19:04.920 She is being

00:19:05.740 very easy

00:19:06.680 to work with

00:19:07.500 so that she can

00:19:08.540 turn around probably

00:19:09.480 in about a year's time

00:19:10.580 or even less than that

00:19:11.480 and say,

00:19:12.200 Carney told me

00:19:12.820 he wanted to build

00:19:13.280 a pipeline

00:19:13.780 and then he voted

00:19:15.040 against his own MOU

00:19:16.100 when the conservatives

00:19:17.300 put it up for a motion.

00:19:18.740 There has been

00:19:19.200 no more talks

00:19:20.040 about getting

00:19:20.420 a pipeline done

00:19:21.320 and he keeps

00:19:22.160 kowtowing

00:19:22.760 to the BC NDP

00:19:24.100 government

00:19:24.640 and to First Nations

00:19:25.900 leaders

00:19:26.360 and not actually

00:19:28.260 bringing up

00:19:31.300 the pipeline issue

00:19:32.380 as a serious thing.

00:19:33.300 He's letting them

00:19:34.000 veto everything

00:19:34.740 about it.

00:19:35.620 All of these issues

00:19:36.580 building up for Carney

00:19:37.660 and even the smaller ones

00:19:39.160 that we remember

00:19:39.780 from the beginning

00:19:40.460 of the year

00:19:41.060 or earlier on

00:19:42.260 in the year

00:19:42.960 like the pilot strike

00:19:44.800 that's going to hurt Carney.

00:19:46.320 That is what is going

00:19:47.380 to be sending

00:19:47.880 public sector workers

00:19:49.300 back to Carney

00:19:50.020 because many of the

00:19:51.320 flight attendants

00:19:52.660 were part of

00:19:53.820 public sector unions.

00:19:55.460 QP

00:19:55.900 that is the flight

00:19:57.660 attendants union

00:19:58.400 for Air Canada

00:19:59.260 was a QP union.

00:20:00.860 A lot of these

00:20:01.400 nursing unions

00:20:02.380 are QP unions 0.87

00:20:03.840 and they all are going

00:20:05.280 to start pushing

00:20:06.000 their people

00:20:06.480 going to go back

00:20:07.460 to the NDP

00:20:08.020 like they had done

00:20:09.240 in previous elections

00:20:10.280 like in 2021,

00:20:12.040 2019,

00:20:12.940 and 2015.

00:20:14.640 So Carney

00:20:15.400 is going to have

00:20:16.000 to make the economy

00:20:16.820 go if he wants

00:20:17.620 to be able to replace

00:20:18.500 these public sector

00:20:19.940 union

00:20:20.500 or left-wing

00:20:21.760 greeny liberal voters

00:20:23.240 with, you know,

00:20:24.620 business liberal voters,

00:20:25.840 more of them.

00:20:26.560 But the problem is

00:20:27.280 the economy is not

00:20:28.100 even doing well.

00:20:29.100 We had the real GDP

00:20:30.340 fall in October

00:20:31.520 and we even had

00:20:32.580 the per capita GDP

00:20:34.000 fall as well,

00:20:35.540 which is pathetic

00:20:36.220 because in part

00:20:37.380 the real GDP fell

00:20:38.520 because we actually are,

00:20:40.160 which is all a good thing

00:20:41.580 that they're doing,

00:20:42.380 we actually are trying

00:20:43.440 to reduce the amount

00:20:44.340 of TFW's

00:20:45.440 new permanent residents

00:20:46.820 and students,

00:20:48.160 which is causing

00:20:49.260 the overall GDP

00:20:50.520 number to decline.

00:20:52.140 But the per capita

00:20:53.040 income number

00:20:54.540 is still declining,

00:20:56.280 which you think

00:20:56.800 it would have gone

00:20:57.200 the other way

00:20:57.760 because the population

00:20:58.640 has shrank

00:20:59.200 and now we're back

00:21:00.240 with more,

00:21:01.000 you know,

00:21:01.300 the business professional

00:21:02.540 to service worker ratio

00:21:04.540 is a little bit better now,

00:21:05.680 but it still fell

00:21:06.700 because people are losing jobs,

00:21:08.620 people are moving away,

00:21:09.780 people with skills

00:21:10.940 are going to the United States

00:21:12.120 because it's just easier

00:21:13.060 to operate.

00:21:14.160 And so you're going

00:21:14.960 to find in 2026,

00:21:16.520 my prediction,

00:21:17.620 is that Carney

00:21:18.520 is going to get ripped

00:21:19.400 in two different directions

00:21:20.540 by two sets of voters

00:21:21.920 that he cannot win

00:21:23.240 both of them back

00:21:24.260 and even with many of them

00:21:25.840 they're not going

00:21:26.420 to trust him again

00:21:27.140 because of just how poor

00:21:28.640 the performance

00:21:29.220 has been so far.

00:21:30.460 Business liberals

00:21:31.120 are going to leave

00:21:31.860 who are kind of swing voters

00:21:33.300 between the conservatives

00:21:34.080 and the liberals

00:21:34.840 and the public sector

00:21:36.260 union people

00:21:37.020 are going to be going back

00:21:38.540 and the activists

00:21:39.180 are going to go back

00:21:40.060 to the NDP

00:21:40.700 and the Greens.

00:21:42.680 If conservatives

00:21:44.120 can even get in

00:21:44.860 within one and a half points

00:21:46.680 of the liberals

00:21:47.220 in an election,

00:21:47.980 if the liberals

00:21:49.520 get 40 points

00:21:50.680 in the election

00:21:51.720 in terms of

00:21:52.540 the national vote

00:21:53.200 and the conservatives

00:21:53.980 get 39

00:21:54.660 or even 38 and a half,

00:21:56.460 the conservatives

00:21:56.980 could win that election.

00:21:58.760 That's just how bad

00:22:00.340 the liberal vote

00:22:01.360 is right now.

00:22:02.320 They concentrate

00:22:02.900 a lot of votes

00:22:03.760 in downtown Montreal

00:22:04.940 and downtown Toronto

00:22:06.140 and downtown Vancouver.

00:22:07.960 But outside of that,

00:22:08.840 their vote becomes

00:22:09.560 very thin.

00:22:11.040 They do disproportionately

00:22:12.300 so well

00:22:13.140 in urban centers

00:22:14.040 that they end up

00:22:14.920 actually hurting themselves

00:22:15.920 in suburban areas

00:22:17.060 because they end up

00:22:17.900 blowing a lot

00:22:18.520 of their vote out,

00:22:19.460 winning some of these

00:22:20.120 ridings by like

00:22:20.840 dictatorship numbers,

00:22:21.980 getting like 70%

00:22:23.040 of the vote

00:22:23.540 in some of the

00:22:24.200 downtown Toronto ridings,

00:22:25.960 but then getting

00:22:26.500 absolutely clobbered

00:22:27.660 out in southwestern

00:22:28.540 Ontario in ridings

00:22:29.660 that the conservatives

00:22:30.560 haven't won

00:22:31.420 in literally decades,

00:22:33.320 nearly a century

00:22:34.240 in the case

00:22:35.080 of the Windsor ridings

00:22:36.100 that the conservatives

00:22:36.740 won both of

00:22:37.740 despite not having

00:22:38.940 won either of them

00:22:40.020 since 1950 and 1930.

00:22:42.380 It's ridiculous.

00:22:44.240 But yeah,

00:22:44.720 so prediction

00:22:45.660 for 2026,

00:22:47.420 I do think we're

00:22:48.100 going to see

00:22:48.420 an election happen

00:22:49.280 regardless if Carney

00:22:50.900 gets a majority.

00:22:51.800 Carney gets a majority,

00:22:52.800 the opposition hardens,

00:22:54.300 they get even more

00:22:55.200 difficult to deal with,

00:22:56.560 and Carney will probably 0.76

00:22:57.780 try and find an excuse.

00:22:58.920 These guys aren't

00:22:59.620 letting me govern

00:23:00.380 and then he'll try

00:23:01.060 and go into an election

00:23:02.320 and run on the idea

00:23:04.080 that he needs more power

00:23:05.460 so he can actually do

00:23:06.280 the things he wants to do.

00:23:07.840 But the floor crossings

00:23:09.700 and all these other things

00:23:10.540 are actually hurting him too.

00:23:12.240 This is the funny thing.

00:23:13.620 Carney,

00:23:13.860 if he wanted to just

00:23:15.200 keep trying to put up

00:23:16.440 popular policy,

00:23:17.900 although he doesn't

00:23:18.440 have a lot of it,

00:23:19.660 if he kept trying to

00:23:20.360 put up popular policy

00:23:21.480 and the opposition

00:23:22.160 kept hammering it down

00:23:23.680 and not letting it go through,

00:23:25.400 he could then go

00:23:26.300 to the voters

00:23:27.260 like Harper did in 2011

00:23:28.580 and make the point

00:23:29.760 that you need

00:23:30.300 to give me more power

00:23:31.300 so that I can actually,

00:23:33.400 you know,

00:23:33.680 govern properly.

00:23:34.500 I can actually go in

00:23:36.160 and pass the things

00:23:37.100 that I want to pass

00:23:38.140 and you guys

00:23:38.640 want me to pass too.

00:23:40.600 The problem is

00:23:41.680 with the floor crossing,

00:23:42.820 it makes him look sleazy

00:23:43.900 and undemocratic.

00:23:45.520 So people don't want

00:23:46.540 to give him more power

00:23:47.420 because they think

00:23:48.120 he's sleazy

00:23:48.600 and undemocratic.

00:23:49.900 Not everyone,

00:23:50.980 but we're always talking

00:23:52.160 around the margin.

00:23:53.300 I have people say

00:23:54.100 all the time,

00:23:55.340 oh my goodness,

00:23:55.980 how can 40% of people

00:23:57.540 still be voting liberal?

00:23:59.420 It doesn't matter

00:24:00.380 is what I would say.

00:24:02.020 You don't need

00:24:02.820 to take away

00:24:03.980 all of the liberals' votes

00:24:05.180 for them to lose

00:24:05.900 the government.

00:24:06.820 You just need

00:24:07.340 to take away two points.

00:24:09.200 If the conservatives

00:24:09.920 could take two points

00:24:11.360 away from the liberals

00:24:12.220 on a national level,

00:24:14.160 right now the liberals

00:24:14.980 and conservatives

00:24:15.480 are almost like tied,

00:24:16.580 let's say at 39%.

00:24:17.740 If the liberals

00:24:19.400 fell two points

00:24:20.460 and one point of it

00:24:21.700 went to the conservatives

00:24:22.540 and one point of it

00:24:23.540 went to the NDP,

00:24:24.780 conservatives would win

00:24:25.560 easily,

00:24:26.180 walking away,

00:24:27.160 could even be a majority

00:24:28.320 depending on the distribution

00:24:29.540 of that vote.

00:24:30.700 That is all

00:24:31.820 that needs to happen.

00:24:33.280 All that needs to happen

00:24:34.200 is for a couple of points

00:24:35.600 to shift from liberal column

00:24:37.700 to conservative column.

00:24:39.960 That is it.

00:24:40.900 That is the entire

00:24:41.720 next election.

00:24:43.380 But anyways,

00:24:44.320 with that all being said,

00:24:45.720 thank you guys for watching.

00:24:47.060 Thank you guys for allowing me

00:24:48.700 to ramble

00:24:49.880 and point at this thing

00:24:51.640 and write stuff down

00:24:52.760 and for taking me seriously

00:24:54.740 even though I'm a deeply

00:24:55.760 unserious person.

00:24:57.680 Thank you for a great 2025, guys.

00:25:00.000 It's been a lot of fun

00:25:00.780 making videos for you

00:25:01.880 this entire year.

00:25:03.260 I would probably still

00:25:04.340 be doing this

00:25:05.000 even if I wasn't monetized

00:25:06.340 and all that stuff.

00:25:07.200 It's just,

00:25:07.700 I'd go stir crazy

00:25:08.600 if I wasn't working

00:25:09.460 on politics all the time

00:25:10.640 and this helps me

00:25:11.560 get all this onto the board.

00:25:13.080 It helps take stuff

00:25:14.200 out of my brain

00:25:15.060 and put it over here

00:25:16.060 so I can stop

00:25:16.780 thinking about it.

00:25:18.400 But yeah,

00:25:19.420 hopefully,

00:25:20.340 like,

00:25:20.760 what am I even

00:25:22.080 trying to say here?

00:25:22.900 I get to the end

00:25:23.440 of the videos

00:25:23.920 and I say something

00:25:24.680 that's even approaching

00:25:25.660 sentimentality

00:25:26.620 and I break down.

00:25:27.380 thanks for watching.

00:25:29.800 It'll be a great 2026.

00:25:31.540 Drop a comment

00:25:32.280 on what type of videos

00:25:33.380 you want me to make

00:25:34.200 next year

00:25:34.740 or if there's a certain

00:25:35.320 style of video

00:25:36.060 I don't do

00:25:36.680 that you'd like to see me

00:25:37.540 try and do.

00:25:38.560 Mention any of that stuff

00:25:39.740 to me.

00:25:40.600 Like the video.

00:25:41.740 Subscribe.

00:25:42.720 Leave a comment

00:25:43.300 on anything you think

00:25:44.520 and I will see you guys

00:25:46.200 all next time

00:25:47.620 which is in the year

00:25:48.640 2026.

00:25:49.600 This will be a playthrough

00:25:50.080 of the video

00:25:50.320 with a similar

00:25:50.480 video.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 01, 2026

Liberals suffer BIG DECLINE in 2025 - Carney fears a 2026 election!

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