The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 01, 2026


Liberals suffer BIG DECLINE in 2025 - Carney fears a 2026 election!


Episode Stats

Length

25 minutes

Words per Minute

177.0805

Word Count

4,577

Sentence Count

258

Misogynist Sentences

2

Hate Speech Sentences

3


Summary

In this video, I take you through where Mark Carney's Liberals were on election night in April, and where they are now based on polling averages across all of the different regions. I'm even using a polling average that includes pro-liberal pollsters like ECOS.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back for the final time in the year 2025 to break down some Canadian national polling numbers.
00:00:09.360 In this video, I want to take you guys through where Mark Carney's Liberals were on election night in April,
00:00:16.640 and where they are now based on polling averages across all of the different regions.
00:00:22.760 I'm even going to be using a polling average that includes pollsters like ECOS.
00:00:28.480 It's not just that I don't like ECOS, they're not accurate.
00:00:32.860 They're obviously a very pro-liberal pollster that uses very heavily liberal samples, but it only makes my point better.
00:00:41.320 I can use polling averages that are going to be leaning more liberal than reality is,
00:00:47.160 and it will still show Carney's Liberals have had a significant decline since the April federal election.
00:00:54.080 And if I take Prime Minister Mark Carney at his word that this is a new liberal government,
00:01:01.240 then it is possibly one of the fastest declining new governments in Canadian history in terms of their support.
00:01:08.820 Because usually a new government, a truly new government, you know,
00:01:12.780 it was previously one party that was in power and now it's a new party,
00:01:16.420 that party typically gets the benefit of the doubt from Canadians for at least a few years.
00:01:21.880 They usually have one or two years where even if they're not doing a great job,
00:01:26.480 people say, well, give them a chance.
00:01:28.420 Let's wait and see what they actually do over a few years.
00:01:32.060 With Carney, no.
00:01:33.780 He is down from election day.
00:01:36.660 He had a big honeymoon in the summer of 2025,
00:01:40.200 but as people started noticing he's not that much different than Justin Trudeau
00:01:44.340 and in some ways worse than Trudeau,
00:01:46.120 he fell far below where he was at his peak and now he's actually below election day.
00:01:53.220 It's not a very good position for Carney to be in going into 2026,
00:01:58.780 considering we are likely to have another federal election
00:02:02.260 and he is at his weakest point since becoming Prime Minister.
00:02:06.720 But anyways, before I get into it,
00:02:09.400 I just quickly want to give a shout out to the channel members.
00:02:12.580 Thank you guys for making the channel more sustainable for me
00:02:15.740 and making me less reliant on YouTube's kind of backwards algorithm at times.
00:02:21.020 If you guys want to help sustain the channel too and you're not yet a member,
00:02:24.460 you can hit the join button below the video
00:02:26.740 and it will allow you to join one of the two fairly low cost tiers.
00:02:31.140 And effectively, again, it's just making the channel more sustainable for me.
00:02:34.940 I don't want to turn this into a hierarchical channel
00:02:37.320 where I only talk to people who are channel members.
00:02:39.620 I may reply to channel members quicker than other people,
00:02:43.840 but I always try and go through and reply to comments from all sorts of people
00:02:47.360 because I don't really want this being like, you know,
00:02:50.060 only certain people get to watch videos early
00:02:52.620 or I make exclusive content for only people who pay.
00:02:55.140 I'd rather just keep it all out in the public.
00:02:57.300 But if you join, you do just make it easier for me to keep this thing going.
00:03:01.060 And if you can't do that, that's totally fine.
00:03:03.540 Like the video, subscribe, leave comments.
00:03:06.280 That's already good enough for me.
00:03:08.360 Anyways, now I want to take you guys through the different regions
00:03:13.340 and show you what the decline has looked like.
00:03:15.940 I'm just showing you where the liberals are at on the left side here.
00:03:19.900 And then on the right side, this is going to be sort of like the now side.
00:03:24.560 What is currently taking place in terms of the polling averages?
00:03:28.540 And I will write down all the parties on the right.
00:03:30.880 And I will tell you if the conservatives are up or the NDP is up
00:03:34.380 or even if the conservatives are down on the side.
00:03:36.720 I'm not trying to hide the ball by not showing you where the conservatives
00:03:39.620 or the other parties were on the left-hand side here.
00:03:42.300 It's just things would not fit if I wrote it all down.
00:03:45.720 But there were a lot of areas of Canada where if you saw how good the liberals did,
00:03:51.740 like in Ontario right here,
00:03:54.040 Ontario was going to be a pretty difficult province to do that well.
00:03:58.540 And again, same as Atlantic Canada, 56% in Atlantic, 49% in Ontario,
00:04:04.540 and even 42% is very, is screamingly high for the liberals out in Quebec.
00:04:10.940 Because remember, the Bloc Québécois are also in Quebec.
00:04:14.580 So it's a five-party or six-party race in many of those ridings.
00:04:18.940 Yeah, the conservatives don't do well at all in Montreal,
00:04:21.540 but still 42%, getting close to a majority of the vote is quite a bit in Quebec.
00:04:27.480 And I think that it was never going to be sustainable for the liberals in the long run,
00:04:31.560 unless they just started knocking out of the park when it comes to their policy.
00:04:35.420 But that was never going to happen.
00:04:37.680 There are too many lefty ideologues who work in this liberal government still.
00:04:42.100 That makes it impossible for them to actually pivot in a more positive direction.
00:04:46.440 But let's take this thing from the top to the bottom.
00:04:49.940 We will start off with British Columbia polling averages.
00:04:54.080 And remember, this is the stuff I'm taking from Polling Canada.
00:04:58.680 These are their polling averages.
00:05:00.480 And they, in fact, do use the ECOS polling, Spark Insight polling,
00:05:06.240 all these pollsters that have a very liberal urban sampling bias.
00:05:12.060 And what they currently have the averages at for British Columbia,
00:05:16.460 they have the conservatives leading,
00:05:18.440 and they did not actually win British Columbia in the last election.
00:05:22.460 They got about 40% of the vote, or 41, and the liberals got 42.
00:05:27.740 The conservatives, who have declined a little bit since election day,
00:05:31.080 are currently at 38% in, or 38.5,
00:05:35.960 but I'll just say 38% in British Columbia.
00:05:39.300 The liberals are at 37.8.
00:05:42.780 We'll even, I'll just throw 37.8 if I'm not saying 37.5 for them.
00:05:49.040 They're at 37.8 now in British Columbia.
00:05:52.220 And the NDP has had the biggest resurgence there,
00:05:55.800 like compared to the rest of the country.
00:05:58.260 They're currently at 15% in BC,
00:06:01.680 which is great considering, I believe, on election night,
00:06:04.980 where were they at?
00:06:05.960 They were literally at like 12 or so,
00:06:08.780 so they've gained a few more points in British Columbia.
00:06:11.840 And the Green Party of Canada has even gone up in BC,
00:06:15.500 having now gotten to 6% when they were at around 3% in the last election.
00:06:22.240 This, these are great gains for the conservatives relative to the liberals.
00:06:26.820 Yes, they're a little bit down,
00:06:27.880 but because there's more undecided voters,
00:06:30.140 there tends to be a little bit more friction in the polling between elections,
00:06:33.360 but they are now leading the liberals.
00:06:35.640 Actually, I should break this out,
00:06:36.820 because my mother was nice enough to get me a pointy stick for Christmas
00:06:40.160 for these such videos.
00:06:42.220 That, again, we've gone from 42%,
00:06:44.900 now down to 37.8 for the liberals in British Columbia.
00:06:49.520 And that was even a 42% that I had even rounded up from.
00:06:53.880 I think they were like 41.8 in the election,
00:06:56.160 and I brought them to 42%.
00:06:57.840 And this is not rounded at all.
00:06:59.620 They have gone down.
00:07:01.360 And again, they're in the driver's seat of policy right now.
00:07:05.080 If they want to be more popular,
00:07:06.920 they can go out and be more popular right now
00:07:09.700 by just fixing some of their terrible policy.
00:07:12.680 Let's now go down to Alberta here.
00:07:15.300 Let me try and find Alberta.
00:07:17.060 Alberta's not going to be much of a shock to you guys.
00:07:19.960 In fact, I think technically the conservatives are down a little bit in Alberta
00:07:23.800 since the election.
00:07:25.240 It doesn't really matter.
00:07:26.380 They're always so high, they win everything.
00:07:28.720 And it's not even a bad thing that the liberal or the conservatives are down a little bit.
00:07:33.000 But the conservatives are at 58% in Alberta.
00:07:37.580 The liberals are at 26.4%, which is actually them going down by a little bit.
00:07:44.980 Let's just put it down 26%.
00:07:46.940 The NDP is around 10% right now, despite on election day,
00:07:52.520 I think they got like eight or something like that.
00:07:54.460 The only seat that they end up retaining was Heather McPherson's.
00:07:57.800 They ended up losing Blake Desjardins.
00:08:00.140 And I think then the PPC is at like 3%.
00:08:03.440 Let's be nice to them by including them here.
00:08:05.960 But yeah, that's...
00:08:07.020 And I think that most of that PPC would just go towards the conservatives
00:08:09.800 if another federal election occurred,
00:08:11.460 because I don't see the PPC actually surviving that long.
00:08:14.840 We'll move on now to the prairies.
00:08:18.260 This is going to be...
00:08:19.980 It's just Saskatchewan and Manitoba combined effectively.
00:08:23.140 Conservatives in Saskatchewan and Manitoba are at 52.
00:08:27.540 Liberals are at 31.7%, which is actually a bit of a decline.
00:08:33.220 But let's just say that it's effectively an even province for them.
00:08:37.040 NDP is up to 11%.
00:08:39.420 And then no one else has any significant amount of vote after that.
00:08:43.420 But let's now move on to Ontario, which is obviously a big one here.
00:08:48.840 This is where the Liberals are getting the lion's share of their vote.
00:08:52.780 Liberals in Ontario are down five points on average.
00:08:57.140 Again, this is with pollsters like ECOS added in,
00:09:00.320 who give them like 52% results in Ontario.
00:09:03.680 They're at 44% on the average.
00:09:06.760 Conservatives are at 40%, which effectively represents them
00:09:11.040 not even moving much at all.
00:09:12.720 I think they were at like 41% on election night, 42% on a couple points.
00:09:17.460 Not too bad, though.
00:09:18.900 New Democrats, who were actually only at 5% in Ontario last election,
00:09:24.100 are now at 10%.
00:09:25.920 And we have the Green Party at about 3.5% as well,
00:09:31.220 which also is an increase.
00:09:32.800 It may even set them up to win back one of the seats
00:09:35.840 that they lost this last election,
00:09:37.660 although it's now Conservative-held,
00:09:39.180 so that might not be as great for the Conservatives.
00:09:41.040 Now, we have two more to fill in here.
00:09:43.360 We have Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
00:09:45.480 And then I just want to start talking about
00:09:47.160 what this is going to kind of look like
00:09:49.240 in terms of seat counts when we get to a new election.
00:09:54.260 So, can I find this here?
00:09:57.400 Let's find the Quebec one.
00:09:58.960 There we go.
00:09:59.480 This is obviously where it gets more interesting
00:10:01.900 because this is not a normal province to be around for elections.
00:10:06.640 We have the Liberals now here at 37.5% in Quebec.
00:10:13.500 Bloc Québécois is at 32.9%,
00:10:17.680 even though I believe they're only at 27 or 28 election day.
00:10:21.620 Of this point, 9, we'll just say 33
00:10:24.140 because that's a very easy roundup.
00:10:28.340 33% for the Bloc Québécois.
00:10:31.600 And then we have the Conservative Party at 19%,
00:10:37.600 which I believe is them falling by two points.
00:10:41.140 But in reality, it basically doesn't matter
00:10:43.600 if the Conservatives rise or fall in Quebec.
00:10:47.060 They pretty much always win the same seven seats
00:10:49.800 and it's not going to change anytime soon.
00:10:52.020 And then the NDP is at six,
00:10:54.220 which is significant since there are some
00:10:56.560 ridings in the city of Montreal
00:10:58.400 where all of that 6% is pretty much concentrated.
00:11:02.800 The NDP effectively only exists in Montreal
00:11:05.920 and Gatineau in Quebec,
00:11:07.660 just as the Conservatives,
00:11:09.520 although they are far wider,
00:11:11.080 they kind of exist in rural southern Quebec.
00:11:13.680 They exist in, you know, the Bowes area.
00:11:17.180 Those sort of outside suburbs of Montreal.
00:11:20.000 There can sometimes be some pro-Conservative areas
00:11:22.020 as well as Quebec City.
00:11:23.980 But this would mean that the Bloc Québécois
00:11:26.060 would be probably clawing back
00:11:28.400 five to seven seats from the Liberals.
00:11:32.140 And now we have one more province
00:11:34.480 or region to talk about.
00:11:36.180 We have Atlantic Canada,
00:11:37.840 where we have the Liberals at 52%,
00:11:42.220 which is a 4% fall since election day.
00:11:45.600 We have the Conservatives at 35%,
00:11:48.600 which is, I believe, a slight fall,
00:11:50.540 but it's not much of a fall at all.
00:11:53.400 35% for the Conservatives.
00:11:55.380 We have eight for the NDP.
00:11:58.160 And then I will be nice to them again
00:12:00.080 and write it down that the PPC
00:12:02.080 has 3% in Atlantic Canada.
00:12:06.100 But this is the current path for the Liberals
00:12:10.120 or the current trajectory
00:12:11.200 that the Liberals are on.
00:12:14.260 Again, I say it a lot.
00:12:16.020 They are in the policy driver's seat.
00:12:18.080 They could become more popular
00:12:19.560 by getting out of their own way,
00:12:21.260 actually approving a pipeline,
00:12:23.120 lowering taxes in a significant way.
00:12:25.600 A 1% decrease in taxes under $50,000
00:12:29.400 is a nothing.
00:12:31.280 Nobody cares about that at all.
00:12:32.840 It doesn't matter whatsoever.
00:12:35.740 It's not going to affect anyone's lives
00:12:37.400 in a significant way.
00:12:38.400 It's giving everyone, like, back $300
00:12:40.140 on the first $50,000 that they pay.
00:12:43.460 You don't even pay taxes on the first $18,000.
00:12:45.820 So really, it's only a cut
00:12:47.660 for, like, what is that, $32,000 of your taxes?
00:12:51.400 It's stupid.
00:12:52.180 It's just almost an insult to Canadians
00:12:54.220 to think that that was going to be enough
00:12:56.040 to win them over.
00:12:57.340 But what we have here
00:12:58.720 is we have around a 4%, 5% decrease
00:13:03.280 in British Columbia.
00:13:05.160 Let's just say that's about 4%.
00:13:07.080 In Alberta, they've gone down
00:13:09.160 by another 2%,
00:13:10.420 which could put Corey Hogan's seat
00:13:12.700 in Calgary at risk.
00:13:14.000 The only seat the Liberals currently have
00:13:15.960 in Calgary could be gone.
00:13:18.420 I think they want another one
00:13:19.620 in Edmonton, but I'm forgetting there.
00:13:23.120 In the Prairies,
00:13:25.140 they're down by 1%.
00:13:27.000 In Ontario, the Liberals are down
00:13:29.700 by 5%.
00:13:31.180 Quebec, that is, like,
00:13:33.760 about 4.5 or so.
00:13:35.860 Yeah, 4.5 points.
00:13:37.240 They're down by, let's just say,
00:13:39.080 4, to be fair to them.
00:13:40.640 And then they're down
00:13:41.760 by another 4% in Atlantic Canada.
00:13:45.340 And that's significant, too,
00:13:46.700 because it's just a fact
00:13:48.320 that Atlantic Canada
00:13:49.500 has the oldest population
00:13:51.300 in Canada on average.
00:13:52.420 And on average,
00:13:53.940 the Liberals do the best
00:13:55.200 with older Canadians.
00:13:56.640 If you are above the age of 65,
00:13:58.780 you are naturally going to be
00:14:00.060 more likely to vote
00:14:01.000 for the Liberals.
00:14:02.040 If you're above the age of 65
00:14:03.360 and you're watching my videos,
00:14:04.660 no doubt you are not
00:14:05.700 actually a Liberal.
00:14:07.040 But the problem is,
00:14:08.240 is that when you're
00:14:09.900 over the age of 65,
00:14:11.580 you're likely to be retired,
00:14:13.280 you are likely to own
00:14:14.220 your own home,
00:14:15.120 and so a lot of the bad
00:14:17.020 Liberal policy
00:14:17.840 isn't just not hitting you
00:14:19.100 as hard.
00:14:19.800 Even in Atlantic Canada,
00:14:20.880 from the impression I get
00:14:22.600 from the outside,
00:14:23.640 generally lower crime,
00:14:25.260 easier way of life.
00:14:26.720 You know, it doesn't mean
00:14:27.400 that it's not,
00:14:28.060 there's not struggle.
00:14:28.980 Obviously, there's a lot of struggle
00:14:30.200 out in Atlantic Canada,
00:14:31.220 but that's more so
00:14:32.180 if you're not already retired
00:14:34.060 and on a pension,
00:14:35.200 it's hard to find a job.
00:14:36.660 But if you are retired
00:14:37.860 and on a pension,
00:14:38.480 that may not be
00:14:39.580 the biggest problem for you.
00:14:41.680 Yeah, cost of living
00:14:42.540 still matters,
00:14:43.160 but you're more likely
00:14:44.660 to be swayed by ideas
00:14:46.680 that we have to stop
00:14:47.340 Donald Trump
00:14:47.880 in these more abstract
00:14:49.040 political issues
00:14:50.160 that for, you know,
00:14:51.500 millennial or Gen Z Canadians
00:14:53.640 just really doesn't even
00:14:55.600 like come up on your radar
00:14:57.560 or something that you
00:14:58.280 should care about.
00:14:59.340 But overall,
00:15:00.560 pretty massive decline here.
00:15:02.320 Again, 4% in BC,
00:15:04.320 2% in Alberta,
00:15:05.520 1% in the Prairies,
00:15:06.960 5% in Ontario,
00:15:08.380 4% in Quebec,
00:15:09.540 Atlantic Canada,
00:15:10.420 they're down 4%.
00:15:11.560 Now, are they still leading
00:15:13.300 when it comes to Ontario?
00:15:15.160 Sure,
00:15:15.880 but based on the distribution
00:15:17.440 of vote,
00:15:18.300 the Conservatives
00:15:18.860 could actually come out
00:15:19.580 of Ontario with more seats.
00:15:21.360 It was actually pretty close
00:15:22.440 on seats in Ontario
00:15:23.460 in this last election,
00:15:25.200 even though the Liberals
00:15:26.580 ended up winning
00:15:27.280 the popular vote
00:15:28.260 in that province
00:15:29.080 by about 7 points.
00:15:31.060 Winning by 4%
00:15:32.340 is actually maybe
00:15:33.480 not enough
00:15:34.120 for the Liberals
00:15:35.040 because if the NDP
00:15:36.680 have come up
00:15:37.600 by, like,
00:15:38.600 double their vote,
00:15:39.540 they're mostly taking votes
00:15:40.840 away from the Liberals
00:15:41.840 in the GTA ridings
00:15:43.460 where the Conservatives
00:15:44.320 almost won.
00:15:45.880 I guarantee,
00:15:48.120 especially if
00:15:48.880 Heather McPherson
00:15:49.840 is the new leader
00:15:51.400 of the NDP,
00:15:52.660 she's not going to be
00:15:53.380 poaching votes
00:15:54.460 from the Conservatives
00:15:55.600 and taking them back
00:15:56.500 to the NDP.
00:15:57.520 She's going to be taking
00:15:58.380 more of those
00:15:59.060 suburban, urban,
00:16:00.360 progressive votes
00:16:01.160 from the Liberals
00:16:02.260 over to her side,
00:16:03.600 which is going to make it
00:16:04.620 far easier to win
00:16:05.800 the GTA ridings,
00:16:07.780 far easier to win
00:16:08.760 ridings in Brampton,
00:16:09.840 Mississauga,
00:16:10.980 southwestern Ontario,
00:16:12.800 because, again,
00:16:13.360 the old private sector
00:16:15.120 union vote,
00:16:16.460 and when I say the old,
00:16:17.320 not like older,
00:16:18.560 but you just need that
00:16:19.420 kind of, you know,
00:16:20.140 well-worn NDP vote,
00:16:21.740 is not coming back
00:16:22.620 to the NDP.
00:16:23.540 That is probably
00:16:24.160 going to be poly of
00:16:25.060 for a long period
00:16:26.860 of time,
00:16:27.340 at least,
00:16:27.680 because the Conservatives
00:16:29.020 actually speak
00:16:30.260 to the concerns
00:16:31.000 of guys who work
00:16:31.820 in trades,
00:16:32.760 guys who work
00:16:33.480 in private sector
00:16:34.440 unionized jobs
00:16:36.160 where the economy
00:16:36.980 actually matters.
00:16:38.260 The NDP
00:16:38.740 are going to be
00:16:39.400 taking back
00:16:39.920 public sector union
00:16:41.140 jobs from the Liberals
00:16:42.780 in terms of those voters,
00:16:44.300 and that's going
00:16:44.820 to be hurting
00:16:45.140 the Liberals
00:16:45.640 in the Ottawa area,
00:16:46.880 going to be hurting
00:16:47.400 them in urban centers
00:16:48.840 where a lot of
00:16:50.120 the public sector
00:16:51.000 employees actually work.
00:16:53.220 And so,
00:16:53.880 this is the reason
00:16:55.480 why,
00:16:55.920 as we keep saying,
00:16:57.400 Kearney is going
00:16:58.120 to try and avoid
00:16:59.140 the next election
00:16:59.980 like the plague.
00:17:01.620 These are weak numbers.
00:17:03.740 If you're in government,
00:17:04.880 you should be wanting
00:17:05.800 to take your election
00:17:06.800 day average number.
00:17:08.420 What did they even have
00:17:09.280 on election day
00:17:09.940 just to get the total?
00:17:10.980 They had about 43.8%
00:17:13.280 of the vote.
00:17:14.200 I believe the average
00:17:15.300 these days for the Liberals
00:17:16.580 is more like 40
00:17:17.660 or 41 or so,
00:17:19.380 but the Conservatives
00:17:20.200 have a more efficient vote.
00:17:21.900 It's why the Liberals
00:17:23.080 actually beat
00:17:24.240 the Conservatives
00:17:25.080 by two and a half points
00:17:26.280 on the popular vote,
00:17:27.800 but they only barely won
00:17:29.420 on the seat count
00:17:30.780 because the closest
00:17:32.340 20 seats
00:17:33.340 that represent
00:17:34.220 the Liberals'
00:17:35.360 margin
00:17:36.080 over the Conservatives,
00:17:37.720 they only won
00:17:38.460 those collectively
00:17:39.380 by 8,000 votes.
00:17:41.340 Some of those ridings
00:17:42.140 were massive squeakers,
00:17:44.060 like they only won it
00:17:44.920 from the Conservatives
00:17:45.620 by 250 votes
00:17:47.360 or 400 votes
00:17:48.600 or even 700
00:17:49.540 or 100.
00:17:51.000 That's nothing
00:17:52.060 when it comes
00:17:52.720 to federal politics
00:17:53.680 with ridings
00:17:54.560 that have the population
00:17:55.660 of a small city.
00:17:57.240 Each riding in Canada
00:17:58.320 is like 120,000 people.
00:18:01.100 Now, not everyone
00:18:01.700 can vote,
00:18:02.300 but that's usually
00:18:02.780 about 93,000 voters.
00:18:05.240 300 votes
00:18:05.940 ain't that hard to find,
00:18:06.880 especially if Carney
00:18:08.780 got in
00:18:09.400 and he didn't really
00:18:10.520 fulfill all of the promises
00:18:11.800 that he made,
00:18:12.800 you know,
00:18:13.080 like not getting
00:18:13.920 a trade deal done,
00:18:15.260 you know,
00:18:15.640 basically blowing out
00:18:16.980 the spending
00:18:17.420 like Trudeau did,
00:18:18.380 if not worse.
00:18:19.480 It actually is,
00:18:20.360 in fact,
00:18:20.860 the biggest budget deficit
00:18:22.180 since 2020
00:18:23.340 during COVID.
00:18:24.940 That's going to be
00:18:25.660 taking off
00:18:26.140 a lot of business liberals.
00:18:27.780 You're going to see
00:18:28.800 a rise in the Green Party
00:18:30.640 in some of these regions,
00:18:32.380 especially British Columbia,
00:18:33.940 over the MOU.
00:18:34.920 You're going to see
00:18:36.100 the NDP
00:18:36.880 take advantage of that.
00:18:38.360 And as I keep saying,
00:18:39.420 the funniest part about it
00:18:40.720 is it's not even like
00:18:42.980 the NDP
00:18:43.800 or the liberals
00:18:44.420 have any intention
00:18:45.220 of building a pipeline.
00:18:46.700 The memorandum
00:18:47.360 of Understanding
00:18:47.940 with Alberta
00:18:48.420 is a joke.
00:18:49.540 Danielle Smith
00:18:50.100 even knows it's a joke.
00:18:51.740 Now,
00:18:52.120 I don't blame her
00:18:53.100 for signing it.
00:18:54.220 She has to demonstrate
00:18:55.120 that she's not unwilling
00:18:56.360 to work with
00:18:57.240 the liberal government
00:18:58.020 because the liberals
00:18:58.900 would love to throw her
00:18:59.980 under the bus
00:19:00.580 for being,
00:19:01.460 quote unquote,
00:19:02.120 difficult.
00:19:03.140 She's being
00:19:03.740 anti-difficult.
00:19:04.920 She is being
00:19:05.740 very easy
00:19:06.680 to work with
00:19:07.500 so that she can
00:19:08.540 turn around probably
00:19:09.480 in about a year's time
00:19:10.580 or even less than that
00:19:11.480 and say,
00:19:12.200 Carney told me
00:19:12.820 he wanted to build
00:19:13.280 a pipeline
00:19:13.780 and then he voted
00:19:15.040 against his own MOU
00:19:16.100 when the conservatives
00:19:17.300 put it up for a motion.
00:19:18.740 There has been
00:19:19.200 no more talks
00:19:20.040 about getting
00:19:20.420 a pipeline done
00:19:21.320 and he keeps
00:19:22.160 kowtowing
00:19:22.760 to the BC NDP
00:19:24.100 government
00:19:24.640 and to First Nations
00:19:25.900 leaders
00:19:26.360 and not actually
00:19:28.260 bringing up
00:19:31.300 the pipeline issue
00:19:32.380 as a serious thing.
00:19:33.300 He's letting them
00:19:34.000 veto everything
00:19:34.740 about it.
00:19:35.620 All of these issues
00:19:36.580 building up for Carney
00:19:37.660 and even the smaller ones
00:19:39.160 that we remember
00:19:39.780 from the beginning
00:19:40.460 of the year
00:19:41.060 or earlier on
00:19:42.260 in the year
00:19:42.960 like the pilot strike
00:19:44.800 that's going to hurt Carney.
00:19:46.320 That is what is going
00:19:47.380 to be sending
00:19:47.880 public sector workers
00:19:49.300 back to Carney
00:19:50.020 because many of the
00:19:51.320 flight attendants
00:19:52.660 were part of
00:19:53.820 public sector unions.
00:19:55.460 QP
00:19:55.900 that is the flight
00:19:57.660 attendants union
00:19:58.400 for Air Canada
00:19:59.260 was a QP union.
00:20:00.860 A lot of these
00:20:01.400 nursing unions
00:20:02.380 are QP unions
00:20:03.840 and they all are going
00:20:05.280 to start pushing
00:20:06.000 their people
00:20:06.480 going to go back
00:20:07.460 to the NDP
00:20:08.020 like they had done
00:20:09.240 in previous elections
00:20:10.280 like in 2021,
00:20:12.040 2019,
00:20:12.940 and 2015.
00:20:14.640 So Carney
00:20:15.400 is going to have
00:20:16.000 to make the economy
00:20:16.820 go if he wants
00:20:17.620 to be able to replace
00:20:18.500 these public sector
00:20:19.940 union
00:20:20.500 or left-wing
00:20:21.760 greeny liberal voters
00:20:23.240 with, you know,
00:20:24.620 business liberal voters,
00:20:25.840 more of them.
00:20:26.560 But the problem is
00:20:27.280 the economy is not
00:20:28.100 even doing well.
00:20:29.100 We had the real GDP
00:20:30.340 fall in October
00:20:31.520 and we even had
00:20:32.580 the per capita GDP
00:20:34.000 fall as well,
00:20:35.540 which is pathetic
00:20:36.220 because in part
00:20:37.380 the real GDP fell
00:20:38.520 because we actually are,
00:20:40.160 which is all a good thing
00:20:41.580 that they're doing,
00:20:42.380 we actually are trying
00:20:43.440 to reduce the amount
00:20:44.340 of TFW's
00:20:45.440 new permanent residents
00:20:46.820 and students,
00:20:48.160 which is causing
00:20:49.260 the overall GDP
00:20:50.520 number to decline.
00:20:52.140 But the per capita
00:20:53.040 income number
00:20:54.540 is still declining,
00:20:56.280 which you think
00:20:56.800 it would have gone
00:20:57.200 the other way
00:20:57.760 because the population
00:20:58.640 has shrank
00:20:59.200 and now we're back
00:21:00.240 with more,
00:21:01.000 you know,
00:21:01.300 the business professional
00:21:02.540 to service worker ratio
00:21:04.540 is a little bit better now,
00:21:05.680 but it still fell
00:21:06.700 because people are losing jobs,
00:21:08.620 people are moving away,
00:21:09.780 people with skills
00:21:10.940 are going to the United States
00:21:12.120 because it's just easier
00:21:13.060 to operate.
00:21:14.160 And so you're going
00:21:14.960 to find in 2026,
00:21:16.520 my prediction,
00:21:17.620 is that Carney
00:21:18.520 is going to get ripped
00:21:19.400 in two different directions
00:21:20.540 by two sets of voters
00:21:21.920 that he cannot win
00:21:23.240 both of them back
00:21:24.260 and even with many of them
00:21:25.840 they're not going
00:21:26.420 to trust him again
00:21:27.140 because of just how poor
00:21:28.640 the performance
00:21:29.220 has been so far.
00:21:30.460 Business liberals
00:21:31.120 are going to leave
00:21:31.860 who are kind of swing voters
00:21:33.300 between the conservatives
00:21:34.080 and the liberals
00:21:34.840 and the public sector
00:21:36.260 union people
00:21:37.020 are going to be going back
00:21:38.540 and the activists
00:21:39.180 are going to go back
00:21:40.060 to the NDP
00:21:40.700 and the Greens.
00:21:42.680 If conservatives
00:21:44.120 can even get in
00:21:44.860 within one and a half points
00:21:46.680 of the liberals
00:21:47.220 in an election,
00:21:47.980 if the liberals
00:21:49.520 get 40 points
00:21:50.680 in the election
00:21:51.720 in terms of
00:21:52.540 the national vote
00:21:53.200 and the conservatives
00:21:53.980 get 39
00:21:54.660 or even 38 and a half,
00:21:56.460 the conservatives
00:21:56.980 could win that election.
00:21:58.760 That's just how bad
00:22:00.340 the liberal vote
00:22:01.360 is right now.
00:22:02.320 They concentrate
00:22:02.900 a lot of votes
00:22:03.760 in downtown Montreal
00:22:04.940 and downtown Toronto
00:22:06.140 and downtown Vancouver.
00:22:07.960 But outside of that,
00:22:08.840 their vote becomes
00:22:09.560 very thin.
00:22:11.040 They do disproportionately
00:22:12.300 so well
00:22:13.140 in urban centers
00:22:14.040 that they end up
00:22:14.920 actually hurting themselves
00:22:15.920 in suburban areas
00:22:17.060 because they end up
00:22:17.900 blowing a lot
00:22:18.520 of their vote out,
00:22:19.460 winning some of these
00:22:20.120 ridings by like
00:22:20.840 dictatorship numbers,
00:22:21.980 getting like 70%
00:22:23.040 of the vote
00:22:23.540 in some of the
00:22:24.200 downtown Toronto ridings,
00:22:25.960 but then getting
00:22:26.500 absolutely clobbered
00:22:27.660 out in southwestern
00:22:28.540 Ontario in ridings
00:22:29.660 that the conservatives
00:22:30.560 haven't won
00:22:31.420 in literally decades,
00:22:33.320 nearly a century
00:22:34.240 in the case
00:22:35.080 of the Windsor ridings
00:22:36.100 that the conservatives
00:22:36.740 won both of
00:22:37.740 despite not having
00:22:38.940 won either of them
00:22:40.020 since 1950 and 1930.
00:22:42.380 It's ridiculous.
00:22:44.240 But yeah,
00:22:44.720 so prediction
00:22:45.660 for 2026,
00:22:47.420 I do think we're
00:22:48.100 going to see
00:22:48.420 an election happen
00:22:49.280 regardless if Carney
00:22:50.900 gets a majority.
00:22:51.800 Carney gets a majority,
00:22:52.800 the opposition hardens,
00:22:54.300 they get even more
00:22:55.200 difficult to deal with,
00:22:56.560 and Carney will probably
00:22:57.780 try and find an excuse.
00:22:58.920 These guys aren't
00:22:59.620 letting me govern
00:23:00.380 and then he'll try
00:23:01.060 and go into an election
00:23:02.320 and run on the idea
00:23:04.080 that he needs more power
00:23:05.460 so he can actually do
00:23:06.280 the things he wants to do.
00:23:07.840 But the floor crossings
00:23:09.700 and all these other things
00:23:10.540 are actually hurting him too.
00:23:12.240 This is the funny thing.
00:23:13.620 Carney,
00:23:13.860 if he wanted to just
00:23:15.200 keep trying to put up
00:23:16.440 popular policy,
00:23:17.900 although he doesn't
00:23:18.440 have a lot of it,
00:23:19.660 if he kept trying to
00:23:20.360 put up popular policy
00:23:21.480 and the opposition
00:23:22.160 kept hammering it down
00:23:23.680 and not letting it go through,
00:23:25.400 he could then go
00:23:26.300 to the voters
00:23:27.260 like Harper did in 2011
00:23:28.580 and make the point
00:23:29.760 that you need
00:23:30.300 to give me more power
00:23:31.300 so that I can actually,
00:23:33.400 you know,
00:23:33.680 govern properly.
00:23:34.500 I can actually go in
00:23:36.160 and pass the things
00:23:37.100 that I want to pass
00:23:38.140 and you guys
00:23:38.640 want me to pass too.
00:23:40.600 The problem is
00:23:41.680 with the floor crossing,
00:23:42.820 it makes him look sleazy
00:23:43.900 and undemocratic.
00:23:45.520 So people don't want
00:23:46.540 to give him more power
00:23:47.420 because they think
00:23:48.120 he's sleazy
00:23:48.600 and undemocratic.
00:23:49.900 Not everyone,
00:23:50.980 but we're always talking
00:23:52.160 around the margin.
00:23:53.300 I have people say
00:23:54.100 all the time,
00:23:55.340 oh my goodness,
00:23:55.980 how can 40% of people
00:23:57.540 still be voting liberal?
00:23:59.420 It doesn't matter
00:24:00.380 is what I would say.
00:24:02.020 You don't need
00:24:02.820 to take away
00:24:03.980 all of the liberals' votes
00:24:05.180 for them to lose
00:24:05.900 the government.
00:24:06.820 You just need
00:24:07.340 to take away two points.
00:24:09.200 If the conservatives
00:24:09.920 could take two points
00:24:11.360 away from the liberals
00:24:12.220 on a national level,
00:24:14.160 right now the liberals
00:24:14.980 and conservatives
00:24:15.480 are almost like tied,
00:24:16.580 let's say at 39%.
00:24:17.740 If the liberals
00:24:19.400 fell two points
00:24:20.460 and one point of it
00:24:21.700 went to the conservatives
00:24:22.540 and one point of it
00:24:23.540 went to the NDP,
00:24:24.780 conservatives would win
00:24:25.560 easily,
00:24:26.180 walking away,
00:24:27.160 could even be a majority
00:24:28.320 depending on the distribution
00:24:29.540 of that vote.
00:24:30.700 That is all
00:24:31.820 that needs to happen.
00:24:33.280 All that needs to happen
00:24:34.200 is for a couple of points
00:24:35.600 to shift from liberal column
00:24:37.700 to conservative column.
00:24:39.960 That is it.
00:24:40.900 That is the entire
00:24:41.720 next election.
00:24:43.380 But anyways,
00:24:44.320 with that all being said,
00:24:45.720 thank you guys for watching.
00:24:47.060 Thank you guys for allowing me
00:24:48.700 to ramble
00:24:49.880 and point at this thing
00:24:51.640 and write stuff down
00:24:52.760 and for taking me seriously
00:24:54.740 even though I'm a deeply
00:24:55.760 unserious person.
00:24:57.680 Thank you for a great 2025, guys.
00:25:00.000 It's been a lot of fun
00:25:00.780 making videos for you
00:25:01.880 this entire year.
00:25:03.260 I would probably still
00:25:04.340 be doing this
00:25:05.000 even if I wasn't monetized
00:25:06.340 and all that stuff.
00:25:07.200 It's just,
00:25:07.700 I'd go stir crazy
00:25:08.600 if I wasn't working
00:25:09.460 on politics all the time
00:25:10.640 and this helps me
00:25:11.560 get all this onto the board.
00:25:13.080 It helps take stuff
00:25:14.200 out of my brain
00:25:15.060 and put it over here
00:25:16.060 so I can stop
00:25:16.780 thinking about it.
00:25:18.400 But yeah,
00:25:19.420 hopefully,
00:25:20.340 like,
00:25:20.760 what am I even
00:25:22.080 trying to say here?
00:25:22.900 I get to the end
00:25:23.440 of the videos
00:25:23.920 and I say something
00:25:24.680 that's even approaching
00:25:25.660 sentimentality
00:25:26.620 and I break down.
00:25:27.380 thanks for watching.
00:25:29.800 It'll be a great 2026.
00:25:31.540 Drop a comment
00:25:32.280 on what type of videos
00:25:33.380 you want me to make
00:25:34.200 next year
00:25:34.740 or if there's a certain
00:25:35.320 style of video
00:25:36.060 I don't do
00:25:36.680 that you'd like to see me
00:25:37.540 try and do.
00:25:38.560 Mention any of that stuff
00:25:39.740 to me.
00:25:40.600 Like the video.
00:25:41.740 Subscribe.
00:25:42.720 Leave a comment
00:25:43.300 on anything you think
00:25:44.520 and I will see you guys
00:25:46.200 all next time
00:25:47.620 which is in the year
00:25:48.640 2026.
00:25:49.600 This will be a playthrough
00:25:50.080 of the video
00:25:50.320 with a similar
00:25:50.480 video.