Liberals surging in the polls？ Or Is it a post-Trudeau mirage？
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Summary
We are entering a period of polling civil war in Canada right now, where there are two very diverging trends in canadian federal polling right now. Some polls show that the Liberals are having a major surge, and others show that they are still as dead as a doornail. I want to break it down for you today, tell you what I think is credible, what i think is not credible, and what i thinks might actually be flat out manipulation.
Transcript
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we are entering a period of polling civil war right now because it looks like there are two
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very diverging trends in canadian federal polling right now some showing that the liberals are
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having a major surge and others showing that the liberals are still as dead as a doornail right now
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i want to break it down for you today tell you what i think is credible what i think is not
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credible at all what i think might actually be flat out manipulation but i'll just get right
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into it and not belabor this too much we'll start out with the main street research poll they
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recently released data on specifically ontario only they were doing an ontario provincial election poll
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and they slipped in a question about how people would be voting federally and it actually showed
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that the liberals would be leading the conservatives by two points when undecideds are still included
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it's 36 for the liberals 34 for the conservatives 11 for the ndp four for the greens two for the ppc
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two for other and of course 11 undecided now i actually like main street polling i'm just going
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to say that out front i'm not going to be one of these people like oh it didn't show the conservatives
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ahead i don't like this pollster main street has done some good work they were actually really accurate
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in bc yes technically their popular vote metric was a bit off but it was hard to tell where the
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votes were going to be coming from for each of the parties in the regions because everything was in
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flux main street in fact was the one pollster that actually showed how tight the election was going to
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be in terms of the seat count all the other pollsters basically projected the ndp getting like 53 to 55
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seats main street basically showed it to be like a tie and it basically ended as a tie right now the ndp
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ndp only has 47 seats and they may only have 46 seats after a court challenge so again don't
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discount what they say right away but a few notes right off the bat when i see something like this
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then i'm going to show you the data table and one of their polls from 10 days ago because the thing i
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immediately am concerned by is how accurate a poll is going to be when you've been asked questions
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about doug ford and the pcs in ontario and then suddenly a poll question is slipped in about the
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federal party because the problem is people have very negative attitudes towards doug ford it's
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like if i kept asking you questions in canada obviously you guys are probably going to like
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donald trump more than the average canadian on my channel but when i if i asked canadians question
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after question about donald trump and about kamala harris and i and i labeled one a more conservative
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person and one the more liberal person then i ask you a federal polling question you're probably more
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likely than if you're the average canadian to say oh liberal because i've just been asking you about
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conservative donald trump and then i start asking you about conservative piropoleev and liberal whoever
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the leader is going to be that might actually boost you up that's just my conjecture but let's look at
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the data table here we'll just scroll down scroll down i pay for main street and you're usually you're not
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supposed to like release all of their data and i'm not trying to do that here i'm just going to show
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certain things i feel like i need to talk about and then i will leave it there but the conservatives
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in this poll even though they're two points behind are actually still leading in three of the age
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brackets granted they're only leading by a decimal point in the 50 to 64 age bracket but they're still
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leading with all other canadians the one group that's really putting them behind in this provincial
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poll is 65 plus canadians where the liberals with basically just a new leader as the leader option
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because with the conservatives as conservatives polyev and it says ndp sing it says green may but with
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liberals it just says liberals new leader i'm wondering if that lets people who especially are
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older just think well you know chretchen was good well paul martin wasn't too bad and they get to imagine
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the best possible liberal leader and then they will then vote liberal assuming that it's going to
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be someone good when it's probably going to be mark carney or christia freeland who don't exactly
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inspire a lot of excitement is mark carney like a flamingly terrible candidate in terms of being like
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embarrassing no but he's boring like michael ignatiev was michael ignatiev was not embarrassing candidate he
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was boring and that was the big problem but this kind of like throws me off a bit liberals at 43.3
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percent conservatives at 30.7 i've been seeing poll after poll including from main street for a long
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time showing that not only were the conservatives leading with every demographic group outside of
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quebec including older voters and they were winning by a wide margin but the thing is that
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this was also happening just a month ago it was coming from main street
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here is another poll right here oh that's the wrong one um i have this one right here this one
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from literally 10 days ago from main street with the same sample size for ontario shows that and i
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might have to go into age groups but they had the uh they had an unweighted frequency of 943 people
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pulled they weighed it down to 913 because it's a little bit of an over poll for ontario for the amount
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of people who picked up the phone but 943 responses liberals got 27.4 conservatives got 39.1
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and the ndp got 13.1 that feels like it's not it's like that doesn't feel exactly realistic to me
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that the conservatives in 10 days would bleed off three or four points the ndp would bleed off a few
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more points and then a bunch of undecideds would get behind the liberals it seems a bit odd to me
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that this would be how fast a poll would change i think that and i think it's a pure like a perfectly
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rational thing to assume that the polling has just simply been thrown off of it by the fact that they
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were asking about doug ford first who is one of the most unpopular premiers in the entire country right
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now but then i just want to quickly jump over to ecos ecos is the other pollster right now showing that
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the liberals are potentially going to come into the lead nationally that they're only like seven
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points down from the conservatives uh this one is nine but i think that frank graves is releasing a new
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one that he hasn't put out the details for that are showing that the liberals are supposedly only down
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by five points now i just don't believe it so here's the top line numbers for his january 18th poll
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it shows 39 conservative 30 liberal ndp 16 block 7 all this stuff but atlanta canada he has the greens
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at 13 percent like i immediately don't believe you when you have greens at 13 and somehow the
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conservatives are 31 when so many other pollsters show them leading massively like manitoba saskatchewan
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alberta that looks good even but if the liberals were surging this is the thing that throws me off
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man if the liberals were surging why wouldn't they be surging in british columbia
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but they're surging in ontario and they're surging in atlantic canada and they're back in second quebec
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but bc nah nah i don't want to vote liberal i'll keep voting conservative like that doesn't make any
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sense to me when polling numbers just stop feeling like they're connected to reality like a voter in
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atlanta canada and bc if anything are kind of similar type voters they don't really vote ndp in
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the maritimes but you kind of get the same sort of granola liberal voter who doesn't like the
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conservatives why would you have the liberals surging in that region but in bc just not really
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moving at all but ontario they're moving up fast but then manitoba saskatchewan they're just kind of
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you know sitting there they're not doing very much even though you would assume that they'd be higher
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because of their strength in places like winnipeg i can't even tell you what the really the problem
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here is i just want to show you some other polling results from other pollsters now to just demonstrate
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how wide this variance is right now and by the way i think eco specifically main street i think that's
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just an outlier result in uh ontario provincially again the way public opinion shifts is slow maybe
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you could say oh it's the trump tariff thing and now people are rallying around the flag which means
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they're rallying around the liberal party maybe i don't quite believe it even with the speed of it
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but you don't make you don't have like what is like a 16 point swing in ontario alone within 11 days
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or 10 days that's just not how people actually think about politics that's just not actually
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how people react to the news you have to have a an absolute nuclear bomb of a news story hit some
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massive corruption scandal hit the conservatives right when the liberals have some star candidate
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rising to be the next prime minister then maybe i could see there being this much of a shift but that
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didn't happen so when i see this much of a shift i just assume it's wrong because that again is
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just not how public opinion works this is the last abacus data poll that was released on the 12th of
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january a little bit further back granted i want something newer but a lot of newer stuff is just not out
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right now but this is what the current abacus data poll looks like ignore the stupid ad on the bottom
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i can't get to go away but they show in atlanta canada the conservatives at 53 percent in ontario
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the conservatives at 50 percent they're even in second place in quebec which the conservatives
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could take or leave british columbia 50 and then in the other provinces obviously still very very much
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ahead this is where and i can keep going to different pollsters and maybe i will just quickly do
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that i can keep going to other people's results and right now it doesn't seem to make much sense to me
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that the liberals would be increasing in these regions where other pollsters show them that they
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have absolutely no capacity at the moment this is nanos's recent national numbers uh that was released
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on january 17th in fact after the last main street one 45 to 21 and 19 for the ndp i don't doubt the
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liberals are going to be clawing into the ndp support as they pick a new leader because oh my goodness at
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least it's not justin trudeau because secretly jagmeet singh is as unpopular inside of his own
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party as justin trudeau was unpopular inside of his party jagmeet singh we saw in a recent i believe it
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was might have not been abacus data i think it was abacus data but they asked voters
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do you think that jagmeet singh is the right person to be leading the ndp into the next federal election
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and those who ranked themselves certain to vote ndp including the undecided 42 said he was the wrong
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choice 41 said he was the right choice and then there were some undecideds when people are certain
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to vote for your party and even those people more than 50 of the decided people think you're the wrong
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choice that's pathetic that's really sad and that's the reason why i actually do think it's realistic
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to see some sort of a bounce in the near future for the liberals i just don't think it's going to be
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as substantial as this trend line is trying to show this is just 338 canada they're just putting
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the polls on display you can see which polls here are ecos all three of these little points going upwards
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quite quickly are ecos research again i could see the liberals jumping to 28 or so after some new leader is
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installed that that again it's just that trudeau's gone the sun's back out for the liberals they can
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be excited but i think it's going to be a polling mirage that you're not actually going to see that
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many people truly come home to the liberal party because it's still the liberal party look at any
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governmental approval ratings for the liberal government and yes that's affected by the fact
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that trudeau was the prime minister but when the government itself which is basically saying do you
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like your own mp do you like how government functions outside of the leader when you're only
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at 23 how many people do you have to convince that you're doing a good job you have to add like 15 points
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to that to have a base of people that you can win an election with because even if people approve of the
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government that doesn't even necessarily mean that they're liberal voters might be green voters
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might be the ndp might be the bloc because the bloc are incentivized to like this government because
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they're not going to have anything after the next election if the conservative party wins a majority
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again i think that most of these like the problems are either ecos i think frank raises a flat out
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making stuff up when you look at his data tables and i've seen them they make no sense when i showed you
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that the greens were at 12 in atlanta canada that's after he did severe weighting on their polling
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numbers that's when he actually adjusted everything down his original data table showed 18 for the
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greens he showed 10 for or 11 for the ppc in in atlanta canada he showed 12 for the ppc in
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the prairies manitoba and saskatchewan that's not real that's just not real if you've ever seen ppc
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by-election results in the past few years you know that they have not maintained their support at all
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you think that they're going to be 12 in manitoba saskatchewan even though when maxine bernier ran
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in portage lisgar himself in 2023 that they lost votes no they're not going to suddenly do better
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18 12 for the greens would mean they would win like five seats elizabeth may and the greens are not
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stupid enough to move a bunch of resources into atlanta canada over that poll that poll which by the
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the way only showed the greens at 2.3 in both ontario and british columbia which is weird because
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that's where their two seats are currently you think they would do a little bit better where
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their two seats are especially since those are provinces that also elect provincial green politicians
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yes there are some maritime provinces that also elect green politicians but the maritimes has always
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been a conservative versus liberal battlefield in fact the ndp basically doesn't exist in the maritimes
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find me a province where the ndp can score above three percent of the vote and i'll eat my hat i know
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there probably is one but look at new brunswick they didn't even exist in that last election in
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other elections they have to like choke somebody out and force them to be the ndp leader because it's
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embarrassing because you're not going to get anything done you have no support at all nobody cares about
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you and so that's where i think going forward are the liberals going to have a bounce sure i would be
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skeptical of anyone suddenly putting them above 30 percent because at some point i think a lot of
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canadians had this moment where they just turned off and they're voting conservative and that's what we
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saw from by elections like cloverdale langley city where the conservatives literally win by 50
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percent they have a 50 victory margin and then you see that also in the by-elections like toronto
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saint paul where the conservatives win a downtown toronto riding or in la salle amarde verdun where the
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bloc quebecois win a liberal seat on blood red montreal yes mark carney might be able to bring it back a bit
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but outside of the type of people who are the or willing to take polls the average person doesn't care
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anymore and that's where you always have to remember the polls polls are done with people
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who will take a poll people who don't take polls but still vote don't take polls and they tend to
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have more generic opinions people who pick up the phone and take a poll they tend to be more partisan
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that's why ecos in the 21 election would often put the ppc at 10 12 and this is after waiting's done
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they had them at 12 percent frank graves must be high on glue because no chance the ppc was at 12
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even at the time when i was avoiding ppc in 21 i assumed that the ppc were not going to get 12
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but they might be like you know maybe seven or something like that but the thing is that ppc
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people will always pick up the phone to tell you that they're voting ppc they're a very very very
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fired up crowd where the average liberal and conservative voter isn't even the ndp voter tends
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to be a little bit more raw raw raw for their party so you'll always see the p the the ndp often like
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coming in severely short of how they pull 2021 often they were pulling 20 21 they come in at 17
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because the ndp really doesn't have that much strength in a lot of regions they put up a lot of
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paper candidates that's just kind of their thing and now i would say the path for victory because
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let's get into the path for victory before i do that guys it's really late in the video but if
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you're still watching and you're not yet a subscriber i assume you like me enough so guys like this video
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subscribe to the channel do all that great stuff trying to get to 100 000 by mid-december
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but the path of victory here i think for the conservatives i'm going to talk about from a
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policy perspective of what they have to do on policy and then in terms of the actual ridings and regions
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policy i think the conservatives almost have to drop the carbon tax refer to it talk about how
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they helped basically kill the carbon tax and even the liberals agree with them that's good but i think
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this needs to be an immigration election it needs to be a it needs to be a common sense rational social
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policy election needs to be an election where they push back against dei in government and they push back
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against like gender theory in schools they say i'm not transferring money to any school that's not
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just teaching reading writing arithmetic it needs to be an anti-crime election i think the conservatives
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have talked about the carbon tax too much at this point to the point where all the juice out of that
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thing has been squeezed out nobody really wants to talk about the carbon tax anymore it's like covid
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covid was so done to death mostly because of the government locking people down and like
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a mess with people's heads so much they don't even want to talk about it anymore i've told people
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running in ontario for the new blue party the doug ford ontario pcs were awful on lockdowns also don't
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bring it up because people just don't want to talk about it same thing with the carbon tax we've talked
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about the carbon tax for so long i think every time we say it you then get stereotyped as having
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nothing to say i think the conservatives need to talk about an across the board income tax cut
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run on a three percent across the board income tax cut outside of really low income brackets where
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they're only paying about eight percent or ten percent at the moment maybe you can lower it to like
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seven i don't know but an across the board income and business tax cut that's what you run on you run
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on stuff that people can actually do on the back of a napkin math and realize oh my goodness i'll have
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another twenty one hundred dollars at the end of the year do that or else you end up being the
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party who just wants to talk about gas taxes and that's not a federal issue that is not a civilizational
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building issue for a party i want the conservatives to win that's why i'm giving this advice they need
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something that feels more like a vision being against the carbon tax is not a vision anymore when
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justin trudeau is not on the ballot to vote against for many voters you need to have a something to
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vote for something audacious to vote for cutting immigration by eighty percent cutting income
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taxes across the board by three percent business taxes go down by three or four percent also by the
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way that's how you beat the u.s in a trade war if you're going to get into one you lower your taxes
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and regulations you don't even put counter tariffs on them you out compete them you just make sure
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that people will move their businesses to your side of the border anyways because your business tax
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are only 13 percent and even trump can only offer 15 if you manufacture in the u.s that's what you
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do and there's no point in putting tariffs up because that means that canadians are paying more
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to bring in u.s goods you don't hurt your own people in the middle of a trade war you just make it
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harder on the other side if they want to trade into your country fine by the way that builds up some
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goodwill that you weren't the problem anyways but now regionally what is the conservative path to
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victory i think that the conservatives need to write off quebec they're going to pick up another
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three or four seats that's fine not much to write home about frankly we could probably pick up almost
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as many seats by just focusing on the territories and that's three seats at best we're not going to
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win none of it though that's always going to be ndp probably for the next little while but i think that
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the conservatives need to be focusing on southwest ontario cleaning up outside of the gta seats they need
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northern ontario they need to get a lot of the socially conservative voters in the maritimes out
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to vote because those voters are very particular this is why socially conservative issues work in
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elections i'm a social conservative i'm not just saying this because i want people to talk about like
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life issues and go against gender theory but maritime voters are socially conservative fiscally
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moderate voters they're usually not hawkish on cutting taxes and whatnot because they benefit heavily
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from equalization so they tend to not really care too much about fiscal responsibility not
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stereotyping everyone that's just a general voter who doesn't think too hard and just throws about in
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the ballot box that person usually is not a fiscal hawk the way like an alberta conservative voter is a
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fiscal hawk but actually less of a social conservative so i think for the conservatives to win focus on
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outside of gta ridings that are flippable focus on the maritimes and then you're going to want to
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focus on outside of vancouver and victoria bc ridings if you do that you will be able to clean up
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there are probably some other manitoba ridings that you can steal from the ndp as they're showing
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a lot of weakness with jagmeet singh being a listless leader but overall do not chase the dream of
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moderating yourself to winning the gta by the way if you actually want the gta you should actually be
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more conservative how do you think ford won it in 2018 doug ford is a hack these days but in 2018
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him promising to reform the sex ed curriculum which he never did vote new blue in ontario's
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provincial election my goodness he that actually helped him in a lot of the ridings like in brampton
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and mississauga because those are so con voters if you run on some common sense social policies you
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will do better in the cities but overall your more clear path to victory is outside of those
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major cities clean up the suburbs clean up some of these rural ridings we still don't have in ontario
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and we will be golden we just need 180 seats 190 seats we just need a majority do not sacrifice the
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party brand to try and go for a hail mary pass for mont montreal it's not happening maybe we get mount
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royal that was always how it was going to be even as the worst polling for the liberals at best the
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conservatives were going to get two two probably just one in montreal clean up around a couple of
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the suburbs in boats and stuff like that and then you know get out of quebec don't focus on it
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legitimately more put some effort into into the yukon and the northwest territories it's worth more to
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you by the way stop letting insiders at the top of the party kick people out of nominations
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like myself in signal hill because guess what you're going to tick off a lot of people's volunteers
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and they're not going to help on the federal part of the federal election so remember that because
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as we're trying to build a movement you don't want to be throwing people out of the bus thinking that
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we're so far ahead we can afford to do it because those people who were good candidates who were going
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to win unless they were kicked out of nominations were your best volunteers they were your best hardest
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working people by the way anyways so that's it for me today guys remember to like share subscribe
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leave a comment and i'll see you guys tomorrow actually not tomorrow i'll probably make another