Liberals trying to undermine Danielle Smith in Alberta! (Poll analysis)
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Summary
Wyatt Claypool explains why we need another conservative party in Alberta, and why we should vote for another party in Canada. He also explains why the current conservative option in British Columbia is not good enough, and what we should do about it.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. As we all know, politics can be a very dirty business.
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Unscrupulous people will use underhanded tactics to hurt their opponents, and there are many
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examples of this in past Canadian elections. We even just saw the liberals and the media deploy
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such tactics against Pyripaliev and the conservatives in this last federal election,
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trying to paint them as basically stooges of Donald Trump and the Americans. So you have to
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vote liberal if you don't want to be taken over by the United States. That's how overheated the
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rhetoric ended up getting during that election, and on certain people it actually worked. That's
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why we still have a liberal minority government right now. But today I want to lay out for you
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guys what I think the federal liberals are currently doing to Premier Daniel Smith of Alberta in real
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time. I'm sort of detecting a liberal scheme going on right now in order to take out one
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of their strongest provincial opponents. While yes, premiers like Scott Moe also oppose many of
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the things the federal liberal government does, Danielle Smith in Alberta is the most vocal.
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Around every turn, she will oppose Mark Carney and the liberals trying to undermine Alberta
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provincial sovereignty or hurting the Alberta oil and gas industry or breaking their promises to
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support it. And so I think that the liberals are probably behind what is going on right now in
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Alberta provincial politics where there are people, very liberal people, attempting to revive the old
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progressive conservative party. Because let's be clear, Nahid Nenshi, the leader of the Alberta NDP,
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had not become Premier on his own strength. The guy is a crap politician. I actually thought he may be a
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good NDP leader, not from a policy standpoint, but just from a charismatic politician standpoint.
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I have the naive idea that while he was a Calgary mayor three times in a row, he's probably going to
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do well in Calgary. Not at all. I made the mistake of assuming that municipal politics has any reflection
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on how someone would do in provincial politics. Very few people vote comparatively in municipal politics
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compared to provincial politics. So winning, becoming mayor doesn't actually mean you can become Premier in
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any way, shape or form. And because Nahid Nenshi, since becoming Alberta NDP leader, has been plowing his own party
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into a wall in terms of their popularity, they need the dance floor to be a little bit more cluttered if they have any
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hope of actually being able to win a government. And so now we have the progressive conservative party coming back
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with two MLAs who were kicked out of the UCP, starting it not for any principled reason.
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In fact, it's actually very difficult when you listen to any interviews of Peter Guthrie and Scott Sinclair
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to actually get a reason for why this exists. They give a lot of very centrist, like centrist
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justifications for why we need the progressive conservative party back. And it's all stuff around
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politics is divisive. You know, people want a kinder, happier, gentler party to vote for. It's like,
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that's nonsense. It's politics, guys. It's rough. Nobody's looking for the kinder, gentler party.
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They want the party that passes the policy they like. And right now, the Alberta UCP government
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is quite popular. They ended up passing protections for children in schools from like, you know, so that
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girls can play sports with actual other biological females. They don't want gender theory in schools.
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They're trying to take inappropriate books out of libraries. They're strengthening parental rights.
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They're finally cutting taxes. They're supporting the oil and gas industry. They're actually not
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cracking down on coal mining in the Rockies, like the NDP wants to do, which is a terrible thing to do
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to Alberta's economy. Overall, they're cutting, you know, the crimes going down, wait times in hospitals
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are going down. We are on the right track. Now, I can criticize whether or not I think we are moving
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towards those goals fast enough or whether or not we should be reducing spending here and there. I
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could find many areas of the Alberta budget where I could cut a few billion dollars. But overall,
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I can't complain too much. But for some reason, now is the time that we need another party. And I say
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this as someone who works for 1BC in British Columbia, I am not against small parties. I have
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no, they don't offend me at all. I like small parties when they're doing things for principled
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reasons and the current other conservative option is completely failing, like in the case of BC
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conservatives who have gone into massive debt, don't respect their members, are watering down their
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platform, and their internal governance is absolutely terrible. But that's not really the case with the
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UCP exactly. I even attempted to reach out to Peter Guthrie and Scott Sinclair, the two MLAs who
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were kicked out of the UCP government to get their side of the story. I was genuinely curious. I was
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even thinking, well, is there any way I can help you guys if you're sitting as independents, if you
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have, you know, a good point to be doing what you're doing? I'd heard that there was internal struggles
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where Guthrie had been leaking stuff or Sinclair had been leaking stuff. I never got the side of the
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story from those two because they just ghosted me. And now suddenly they are joining the Alberta
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Party, which is a left-wing party. It is a center-left-to-left liberal party, and they're
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going to try and hijack the old progressive conservative name in order so that, like, basically
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to split the vote. And I'm somebody who generally doesn't believe in the concept of vote splitting.
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That if two parties compete against each other, the federal conservatives and the PPC, and the PPC
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in 2021 gets 5% of the vote, and the conservatives end up losing some seats with the difference being
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made up by the PPC vote, I don't really think that the conservative vote was split. I think the
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conservatives lost voters to the PPC because those voters probably weren't voting conservative
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in the first place. Where vote splitting exists is when you have one party that is doing something,
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and then you have another smaller version of that party pop up, which is basically almost
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promising kind of the same things with watered-down language. It's not attempting to win, but it's
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going after the same voters as the other party, and that's all it exists to. That's actual vote
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splitting. We see this actually in Ontario, where you have the new blue party of Ontario that was set
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up to oppose Doug Ford's very wishy-washy PPC government. And then Doug Ford's people, I'm not even
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kidding, funded the Ontario party, which already existed but was like nothing before some of their
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people started throwing money into it, to basically just shadow the new blue party and say almost the
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same things in a watered-down form but never actually criticizing Doug Ford in order to just
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make sure that a large portion of vote never consolidates behind the new blue party and becomes
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a real threat to Doug Ford's very liberal PPC government. So this has already been a long-winded rant,
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but I want to actually go to the board in just a second here after I play a clip to show you just
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how messed up the polls can get once you start throwing a progressive conservative option into
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the mix. Because again, this is basically just attempting to act as a stalking horse for the UCP,
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not attempting to actually win, but just getting in there, confusing voters, thinking, oh,
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the progressive conservatives are back? Oh, I'll put a vote in for them, not realizing that it's like
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even more liberal than the Allison Redford version. They're not even serious about actually running.
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And in fact, it may actually be illegal for them to attempt to take the progressive conservative
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name. Because if you will remember, if you were from, if you're from Alberta, you'll probably
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remember. If not, back in the day, the PC party and the Wild Rose party combined to create the UCP.
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So the UCP, in essence, owns both of those names, because they are the party that was a merger of the
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two. You can't just then take one of the names of the previous parties and then just go
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start it again, because those party members voted to merge into this new thing. You can't just walk
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away with one of the names. And even then, you shouldn't be able to run with a name that is
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almost the exact same as the other party. But now I just want to cut to this clip of David Bextie
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talking about the liberals' broken promises, and this is a federal parliament, when it comes to the
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emissions cap, which is effectively a production cap on the Alberta oil and gas industry. Because I
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think this adds some flavor in for why the liberals may want Daniel Smith out of the way. This is a
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federal example, but Daniel Smith, as Mark Carney breaks promises to her, he will come and promise
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a bunch of stuff, oh, I'm going to be nice to the energy industry, and then he will do the opposite.
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And then now I think the liberals, not knowing that they're not going to be able to get Daniel
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Smith on side to cheerlead Carney, are backing this scheme. Not like overtly, not like I can show
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you the money, but in the sense that every single person who is a liberal organizer is now attempting
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to help pump up Peter Guthrie and Scott Sinclair.
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Mr. Speaker, just yesterday, the liberals voted to keep the liberal energy production cap in place,
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a move that kills Canadian jobs and weakens our economy. This isn't just bad policy, it's common
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sense ignored. The liberals are choking off Canadian energy, and the Prime Minister pats Beijing on the
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back. The regime building two new coal-fired power plants every week. The parliamentary budget
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officer stated the emissions cap will wipe out $20 billion in GDP. It will cost over 40,000 jobs.
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That's families struggling, communities hurting, and a country falling behind. The emissions cap is a
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production cap. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers stated the emissions cap has driven
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investment out of Canada. The Prime Minister promised a new era that Canada will become an energy
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superpower, and what do the Canadians get? Bait and switch. A list that doesn't even include a pipeline
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project on its national interest list. Albertans know the answer isn't to keep strangling jobs with
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Ottawa's red tape. It's time to scrap this emissions cap. It's a production cap to stop killing Canadian
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energy and revive our country. I thought that was just a great clip of David Bextie, so I just wanted
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to play that. But it kind of leads into me also wanting to mention how Danielle Smith is also having
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opposition from the federal liberals when it comes to her new policies in order to protect, you know,
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girls in female sports from having to compete against biological males. You have Sean Frazier, the current
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Attorney General of the Liberal government, attempting to undermine the Notwithstanding Clause, which provinces
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like Alberta and Quebec rely on to not have their legislation struck down by very liberal court
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justices who don't actually really care about the Charter because they just let the Charter mean
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whatever liberal opinions they already hold. But now I want to jump over to the stats, and we will be
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bringing out the board because I want to show you guys just how much an election could be changed if a
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progressive conservative party is allowed to compete alongside the UCP. Again, in British Columbia,
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when we were starting 1BC, we didn't call ourselves also the BC conservative party. No, we're starting
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something different. We're not trying to trick people. You're going to convince them. The PC party
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in Alberta, if they are able to change the name from Alberta party to progressive conservative,
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is not trying to convince people that they're the shiny, happier people that you should vote for.
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They're just going to hope that you're stupid enough to vote PC at the ballot box not realizing
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that this is not actually the old PC party and that it's just some random people hijacking it for
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an ego trip. Anyways, so before I get into that though, I do just want to make a quick plug because
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we're talking about Alberta stuff and how Calgary municipal politics has been so insane. I've had
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someone basically say I should be shot in the head instead of Charlie Kirk from a different
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campaign that I'm not supporting. I've been partially doxed. It's been pretty crazy. People have been
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putting my phone number out on social media and this is all frankly originating from Jeff Davison's
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campaign. So I've already, and the things I've been accused of being a shill for Sonia Sharp, I am not a
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shill for Sonia Sharp. In fact, I paid her a thousand dollars. I put a donation into her campaign of
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$1,000. I'm not paid. I'm in fact getting a negative salary in effect, but I just want to
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make a quick pitch that if you live in Calgary, please go and get yourself a Sonia Sharp for mayor
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sign. She is the most conservative candidate that actually has a good chance of winning and a lot of
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new conservative people are on board her team that I trust and she's actually very good specifically on
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the issue of spending and crime, which are my two really big things I want handled on a municipal
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level. Obviously, she's also against blank rezoning all that. So I'm putting a link in the description
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below and pinned at the top of the comments for the Sonia Sharp lawn signs if you want one and you live
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in the city of Calgary. But anyways, I'm going to pause the video and then I'm going to come back
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with the whiteboard so we can talk about how an election gets completely warped by including the PC
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party. So now we are back and I want to take you through two polls from Cardinal Research. I really
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don't think they are the best pollster, but for our purposes today, I think they should be generally
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giving us a good picture. They've even done a mayoral poll that when you actually look at the
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numbers, it doesn't quite make sense. So you are going to get a little bit of an issue with, I've heard
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what they do is that they let people at the doors or they have basically campaigns give them some of
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their day to day ID data. I don't really quite know how they gather stuff. But in general, sometimes
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they're accurate, sometimes they're very off. But even if they are very off here, it still demonstrates
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my point. So I want to show their poll, just asking people who they'd be voting for in the next
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provincial election in Alberta with the options currently on the table available to them. And so
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what we have with this poll is that we see currently Danielle Smith is leading with 43% of the vote.
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And she's leading the NDP, who only have, it's not a crazy big lead, but they have
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36%. And this is even with the Republican Party of Alberta able to take 11%. We then also have the
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Alberta Liberal Party getting 5%. And the Alberta Party getting 4%. The Alberta Party being the party
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that is trying to change their name to the Progressive Conservatives. So this is just a normal
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election. This is our normal one. But now let's go to the hypothetical one, the crazy bizarro world
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election, where we have the UCP and the PC Party in the same race. So this gets very crazy. I'm going
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to bring it up on screen here so I can put it out. So in this race with the PC Party involved, we have
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the NDP leading with, I know the size of these bar charts don't really make any sense, but it doesn't
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matter. You get my point. 30%. They would be leading with 30. With the PC Party, that's really just the
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Alberta Party, getting almost that much. 28% of the vote for the Alberta Party slash PC Party, the
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dishonestly renamed one. And then the actual UCP, the actual Conservatives, would be getting
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25%. And that's even again, with the Republican Party getting 11%. And then it doesn't even stop
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there. Then you also have the Alberta Liberals getting 4% of the vote. So yeah, maybe this doesn't
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really happen in reality. And this is just what people answer when they're surveyed, and they don't
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really know that the PC Party is just some rebranded pile of garbage. But yeah, this is what I would
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consider a bit of a danger zone result. We do not want to end up here in Alberta, where conceivably
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the NDP ends up winning the election. Maybe technically the Conservatives could still cobble
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together some sort of a minority government with the PCs here. I think even with 11%, the Republican
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Party would be winning seats. Although I don't quite believe that because in Old Didsbury Three
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Hills, they only got like 17% in their strongest possible place, which means your average is not
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going to be 11. But still, this is an actual example of vote splitting. Even in 2015, I wouldn't even
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exactly call that vote splitting when the NDP won, because they still got 43% of the vote. It was still
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quite a bit. It was just that the Wild Rose and PCs truly couldn't agree on a lot of stuff. So they ended up
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both running. With the PCs, again, when I hear Guthrie and I hear Scott Sinclair talking about the
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whole narrative arc for their party, I don't get it. I don't get it at all. It's like, oh, we need
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less of this than this in politics. Who gives a crap? Honestly. How will we just have good policy?
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Because when they were part of the UCP, they were helping contribute to good policy. Why do we want
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them now in a different vehicle where they still basically kind of describe the same policies as the
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UCP? But whatever. It's all just stupid. And here's something that's fairly revealing,
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is that when we saw this hypothetical result come out, we see Peter Guthrie here, the former UCP MLA,
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saying, fascinating. Join us in building that Alberta PC future. Become a member today in
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linking to the Alberta party again, attempting to, in effect, steal the old progressive conservative
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name from the UCP merger. So that should be it for me today, guys. That's just a bit of an overview of
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what I think is going on in Alberta. I think that this is kind of a project of the Liberals. You
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couldn't really convince me that this is something that grassroots conservatives want, because the
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NDP voters don't want it. They're already, they're still voting NDP. They only lose a few points when you
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add the PC party back in. It might be some Calgary PCers who are very much on the left side who now vote
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NDP. But this is something where the NDP is not going to hurt itself and drop in support just to
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have another party on the ballot to hurt their opponents. They'd rather probably hold on to as much as
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they can. This is obviously something from the outside. And I don't think that Scott Sinclair or even
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Guthrie can even articulate why it exists. I feel like you'd have to ask the federal Liberals why this
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exists, because they seem to be the main people motivated to get something like this to happen.
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Anyways, so, that's it for me today guys. Like, share, and subscribe. Do all that fantastic stuff.
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Again, get yourself a Sonya Sharp lawn sign in the description below if you're interested. Again, most
00:19:27.400
conservative mayor that can actually win. So, you know, make your own choice. But that's my recommendation.
00:19:34.420
Anyways, with that being said, I will see you guys all later.