The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Liberals trying to undermine Danielle Smith in Alberta! (Poll analysis)

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. As we all know, politics can be a very dirty business.

00:00:07.240 Unscrupulous people will use underhanded tactics to hurt their opponents, and there are many

00:00:12.360 examples of this in past Canadian elections. We even just saw the liberals and the media deploy

00:00:19.300 such tactics against Pyripaliev and the conservatives in this last federal election,

00:00:23.880 trying to paint them as basically stooges of Donald Trump and the Americans. So you have to

00:00:28.880 vote liberal if you don't want to be taken over by the United States. That's how overheated the

00:00:34.500 rhetoric ended up getting during that election, and on certain people it actually worked. That's

00:00:39.600 why we still have a liberal minority government right now. But today I want to lay out for you

00:00:45.240 guys what I think the federal liberals are currently doing to Premier Daniel Smith of Alberta in real

00:00:52.160 time. I'm sort of detecting a liberal scheme going on right now in order to take out one

00:00:58.660 of their strongest provincial opponents. While yes, premiers like Scott Moe also oppose many of

00:01:05.280 the things the federal liberal government does, Danielle Smith in Alberta is the most vocal.

00:01:10.900 Around every turn, she will oppose Mark Carney and the liberals trying to undermine Alberta

00:01:16.140 provincial sovereignty or hurting the Alberta oil and gas industry or breaking their promises to

00:01:21.560 support it. And so I think that the liberals are probably behind what is going on right now in

00:01:28.140 Alberta provincial politics where there are people, very liberal people, attempting to revive the old

00:01:34.880 progressive conservative party. Because let's be clear, Nahid Nenshi, the leader of the Alberta NDP,

00:01:41.700 had not become Premier on his own strength. The guy is a crap politician. I actually thought he may be a 1.00

00:01:48.880 good NDP leader, not from a policy standpoint, but just from a charismatic politician standpoint.

00:01:54.360 I have the naive idea that while he was a Calgary mayor three times in a row, he's probably going to

00:02:00.360 do well in Calgary. Not at all. I made the mistake of assuming that municipal politics has any reflection

00:02:06.580 on how someone would do in provincial politics. Very few people vote comparatively in municipal politics

00:02:13.580 compared to provincial politics. So winning, becoming mayor doesn't actually mean you can become Premier in

00:02:20.040 any way, shape or form. And because Nahid Nenshi, since becoming Alberta NDP leader, has been plowing his own party

00:02:27.780 into a wall in terms of their popularity, they need the dance floor to be a little bit more cluttered if they have any

00:02:34.620 hope of actually being able to win a government. And so now we have the progressive conservative party coming back

00:02:42.040 with two MLAs who were kicked out of the UCP, starting it not for any principled reason.

00:02:49.540 In fact, it's actually very difficult when you listen to any interviews of Peter Guthrie and Scott Sinclair

00:02:54.820 to actually get a reason for why this exists. They give a lot of very centrist, like centrist

00:03:01.040 justifications for why we need the progressive conservative party back. And it's all stuff around

00:03:05.780 politics is divisive. You know, people want a kinder, happier, gentler party to vote for. It's like,

00:03:13.480 that's nonsense. It's politics, guys. It's rough. Nobody's looking for the kinder, gentler party.

00:03:19.500 They want the party that passes the policy they like. And right now, the Alberta UCP government

00:03:24.900 is quite popular. They ended up passing protections for children in schools from like, you know, so that

00:03:31.800 girls can play sports with actual other biological females. They don't want gender theory in schools. 1.00

00:03:37.220 They're trying to take inappropriate books out of libraries. They're strengthening parental rights.

00:03:41.080 They're finally cutting taxes. They're supporting the oil and gas industry. They're actually not

00:03:46.160 cracking down on coal mining in the Rockies, like the NDP wants to do, which is a terrible thing to do

00:03:51.820 to Alberta's economy. Overall, they're cutting, you know, the crimes going down, wait times in hospitals

00:03:58.040 are going down. We are on the right track. Now, I can criticize whether or not I think we are moving

00:04:03.360 towards those goals fast enough or whether or not we should be reducing spending here and there. I

00:04:08.200 could find many areas of the Alberta budget where I could cut a few billion dollars. But overall,

00:04:14.600 I can't complain too much. But for some reason, now is the time that we need another party. And I say

00:04:21.900 this as someone who works for 1BC in British Columbia, I am not against small parties. I have

00:04:28.240 no, they don't offend me at all. I like small parties when they're doing things for principled

00:04:32.400 reasons and the current other conservative option is completely failing, like in the case of BC

00:04:38.700 conservatives who have gone into massive debt, don't respect their members, are watering down their

00:04:43.580 platform, and their internal governance is absolutely terrible. But that's not really the case with the

00:04:50.080 UCP exactly. I even attempted to reach out to Peter Guthrie and Scott Sinclair, the two MLAs who

00:04:58.000 were kicked out of the UCP government to get their side of the story. I was genuinely curious. I was

00:05:02.740 even thinking, well, is there any way I can help you guys if you're sitting as independents, if you

00:05:07.280 have, you know, a good point to be doing what you're doing? I'd heard that there was internal struggles

00:05:12.680 where Guthrie had been leaking stuff or Sinclair had been leaking stuff. I never got the side of the

00:05:18.840 story from those two because they just ghosted me. And now suddenly they are joining the Alberta

00:05:24.440 Party, which is a left-wing party. It is a center-left-to-left liberal party, and they're

00:05:30.620 going to try and hijack the old progressive conservative name in order so that, like, basically

00:05:36.640 to split the vote. And I'm somebody who generally doesn't believe in the concept of vote splitting.

00:05:43.620 That if two parties compete against each other, the federal conservatives and the PPC, and the PPC

00:05:49.540 in 2021 gets 5% of the vote, and the conservatives end up losing some seats with the difference being

00:05:56.220 made up by the PPC vote, I don't really think that the conservative vote was split. I think the

00:06:00.880 conservatives lost voters to the PPC because those voters probably weren't voting conservative

00:06:05.220 in the first place. Where vote splitting exists is when you have one party that is doing something,

00:06:12.880 and then you have another smaller version of that party pop up, which is basically almost

00:06:18.580 promising kind of the same things with watered-down language. It's not attempting to win, but it's

00:06:24.380 going after the same voters as the other party, and that's all it exists to. That's actual vote

00:06:29.060 splitting. We see this actually in Ontario, where you have the new blue party of Ontario that was set

00:06:35.400 up to oppose Doug Ford's very wishy-washy PPC government. And then Doug Ford's people, I'm not even

00:06:42.000 kidding, funded the Ontario party, which already existed but was like nothing before some of their

00:06:47.580 people started throwing money into it, to basically just shadow the new blue party and say almost the

00:06:52.660 same things in a watered-down form but never actually criticizing Doug Ford in order to just

00:06:57.700 make sure that a large portion of vote never consolidates behind the new blue party and becomes

00:07:03.700 a real threat to Doug Ford's very liberal PPC government. So this has already been a long-winded rant,

00:07:10.500 but I want to actually go to the board in just a second here after I play a clip to show you just

00:07:17.020 how messed up the polls can get once you start throwing a progressive conservative option into

00:07:22.080 the mix. Because again, this is basically just attempting to act as a stalking horse for the UCP,

00:07:27.980 not attempting to actually win, but just getting in there, confusing voters, thinking, oh,

00:07:32.600 the progressive conservatives are back? Oh, I'll put a vote in for them, not realizing that it's like

00:07:37.100 even more liberal than the Allison Redford version. They're not even serious about actually running.

00:07:42.360 And in fact, it may actually be illegal for them to attempt to take the progressive conservative

00:07:46.620 name. Because if you will remember, if you were from, if you're from Alberta, you'll probably

00:07:51.320 remember. If not, back in the day, the PC party and the Wild Rose party combined to create the UCP.

00:07:58.120 So the UCP, in essence, owns both of those names, because they are the party that was a merger of the

00:08:04.440 two. You can't just then take one of the names of the previous parties and then just go

00:08:07.900 start it again, because those party members voted to merge into this new thing. You can't just walk

00:08:15.180 away with one of the names. And even then, you shouldn't be able to run with a name that is

00:08:19.260 almost the exact same as the other party. But now I just want to cut to this clip of David Bextie

00:08:26.880 talking about the liberals' broken promises, and this is a federal parliament, when it comes to the

00:08:33.480 emissions cap, which is effectively a production cap on the Alberta oil and gas industry. Because I

00:08:39.360 think this adds some flavor in for why the liberals may want Daniel Smith out of the way. This is a

00:08:46.180 federal example, but Daniel Smith, as Mark Carney breaks promises to her, he will come and promise

00:08:52.160 a bunch of stuff, oh, I'm going to be nice to the energy industry, and then he will do the opposite.

00:08:56.900 And then now I think the liberals, not knowing that they're not going to be able to get Daniel

00:09:01.720 Smith on side to cheerlead Carney, are backing this scheme. Not like overtly, not like I can show

00:09:08.660 you the money, but in the sense that every single person who is a liberal organizer is now attempting

00:09:15.100 to help pump up Peter Guthrie and Scott Sinclair.

00:09:18.600 Mr. Speaker, just yesterday, the liberals voted to keep the liberal energy production cap in place,

00:09:27.160 a move that kills Canadian jobs and weakens our economy. This isn't just bad policy, it's common

00:09:32.780 sense ignored. The liberals are choking off Canadian energy, and the Prime Minister pats Beijing on the

00:09:37.700 back. The regime building two new coal-fired power plants every week. The parliamentary budget

00:09:42.500 officer stated the emissions cap will wipe out $20 billion in GDP. It will cost over 40,000 jobs.

00:09:48.760 That's families struggling, communities hurting, and a country falling behind. The emissions cap is a

00:09:54.560 production cap. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers stated the emissions cap has driven

00:09:59.640 investment out of Canada. The Prime Minister promised a new era that Canada will become an energy

00:10:04.280 superpower, and what do the Canadians get? Bait and switch. A list that doesn't even include a pipeline

00:10:10.020 project on its national interest list. Albertans know the answer isn't to keep strangling jobs with

00:10:15.300 Ottawa's red tape. It's time to scrap this emissions cap. It's a production cap to stop killing Canadian 1.00

00:10:20.320 energy and revive our country. I thought that was just a great clip of David Bextie, so I just wanted

00:10:25.180 to play that. But it kind of leads into me also wanting to mention how Danielle Smith is also having

00:10:30.640 opposition from the federal liberals when it comes to her new policies in order to protect, you know,

00:10:36.240 girls in female sports from having to compete against biological males. You have Sean Frazier, the current 0.99

00:10:43.660 Attorney General of the Liberal government, attempting to undermine the Notwithstanding Clause, which provinces

00:10:49.580 like Alberta and Quebec rely on to not have their legislation struck down by very liberal court

00:10:56.160 justices who don't actually really care about the Charter because they just let the Charter mean

00:11:01.020 whatever liberal opinions they already hold. But now I want to jump over to the stats, and we will be

00:11:07.380 bringing out the board because I want to show you guys just how much an election could be changed if a

00:11:13.380 progressive conservative party is allowed to compete alongside the UCP. Again, in British Columbia,

00:11:20.320 when we were starting 1BC, we didn't call ourselves also the BC conservative party. No, we're starting

00:11:25.700 something different. We're not trying to trick people. You're going to convince them. The PC party

00:11:30.400 in Alberta, if they are able to change the name from Alberta party to progressive conservative,

00:11:35.120 is not trying to convince people that they're the shiny, happier people that you should vote for. 0.99

00:11:38.900 They're just going to hope that you're stupid enough to vote PC at the ballot box not realizing 0.98

00:11:43.500 that this is not actually the old PC party and that it's just some random people hijacking it for 1.00

00:11:49.080 an ego trip. Anyways, so before I get into that though, I do just want to make a quick plug because

00:11:55.040 we're talking about Alberta stuff and how Calgary municipal politics has been so insane. I've had

00:12:00.720 someone basically say I should be shot in the head instead of Charlie Kirk from a different

00:12:05.540 campaign that I'm not supporting. I've been partially doxed. It's been pretty crazy. People have been 0.91

00:12:12.100 putting my phone number out on social media and this is all frankly originating from Jeff Davison's

00:12:18.140 campaign. So I've already, and the things I've been accused of being a shill for Sonia Sharp, I am not a

00:12:25.280 shill for Sonia Sharp. In fact, I paid her a thousand dollars. I put a donation into her campaign of

00:12:31.100 $1,000. I'm not paid. I'm in fact getting a negative salary in effect, but I just want to

00:12:37.480 make a quick pitch that if you live in Calgary, please go and get yourself a Sonia Sharp for mayor

00:12:42.460 sign. She is the most conservative candidate that actually has a good chance of winning and a lot of 0.88

00:12:47.920 new conservative people are on board her team that I trust and she's actually very good specifically on

00:12:53.180 the issue of spending and crime, which are my two really big things I want handled on a municipal

00:12:59.140 level. Obviously, she's also against blank rezoning all that. So I'm putting a link in the description

00:13:04.160 below and pinned at the top of the comments for the Sonia Sharp lawn signs if you want one and you live

00:13:09.580 in the city of Calgary. But anyways, I'm going to pause the video and then I'm going to come back

00:13:13.900 with the whiteboard so we can talk about how an election gets completely warped by including the PC

00:13:20.460 party. So now we are back and I want to take you through two polls from Cardinal Research. I really

00:13:29.880 don't think they are the best pollster, but for our purposes today, I think they should be generally

00:13:34.720 giving us a good picture. They've even done a mayoral poll that when you actually look at the

00:13:38.840 numbers, it doesn't quite make sense. So you are going to get a little bit of an issue with, I've heard

00:13:44.940 what they do is that they let people at the doors or they have basically campaigns give them some of

00:13:50.300 their day to day ID data. I don't really quite know how they gather stuff. But in general, sometimes

00:13:57.100 they're accurate, sometimes they're very off. But even if they are very off here, it still demonstrates

00:14:03.660 my point. So I want to show their poll, just asking people who they'd be voting for in the next

00:14:09.860 provincial election in Alberta with the options currently on the table available to them. And so

00:14:16.760 what we have with this poll is that we see currently Danielle Smith is leading with 43% of the vote.

00:14:26.500 And she's leading the NDP, who only have, it's not a crazy big lead, but they have

00:14:35.900 36%. And this is even with the Republican Party of Alberta able to take 11%. We then also have the

00:14:50.500 Alberta Liberal Party getting 5%. And the Alberta Party getting 4%. The Alberta Party being the party

00:14:57.260 that is trying to change their name to the Progressive Conservatives. So this is just a normal

00:15:04.780 election. This is our normal one. But now let's go to the hypothetical one, the crazy bizarro world

00:15:16.200 election, where we have the UCP and the PC Party in the same race. So this gets very crazy. I'm going

00:15:25.200 to bring it up on screen here so I can put it out. So in this race with the PC Party involved, we have

00:15:32.920 the NDP leading with, I know the size of these bar charts don't really make any sense, but it doesn't

00:15:39.940 matter. You get my point. 30%. They would be leading with 30. With the PC Party, that's really just the

00:15:46.840 Alberta Party, getting almost that much. 28% of the vote for the Alberta Party slash PC Party, the

00:15:56.580 dishonestly renamed one. And then the actual UCP, the actual Conservatives, would be getting

00:16:03.000 25%. And that's even again, with the Republican Party getting 11%. And then it doesn't even stop

00:16:16.940 there. Then you also have the Alberta Liberals getting 4% of the vote. So yeah, maybe this doesn't

00:16:27.200 really happen in reality. And this is just what people answer when they're surveyed, and they don't

00:16:32.280 really know that the PC Party is just some rebranded pile of garbage. But yeah, this is what I would 0.96

00:16:39.900 consider a bit of a danger zone result. We do not want to end up here in Alberta, where conceivably

00:16:48.320 the NDP ends up winning the election. Maybe technically the Conservatives could still cobble

00:16:54.840 together some sort of a minority government with the PCs here. I think even with 11%, the Republican

00:17:01.700 Party would be winning seats. Although I don't quite believe that because in Old Didsbury Three

00:17:06.120 Hills, they only got like 17% in their strongest possible place, which means your average is not

00:17:11.340 going to be 11. But still, this is an actual example of vote splitting. Even in 2015, I wouldn't even

00:17:17.600 exactly call that vote splitting when the NDP won, because they still got 43% of the vote. It was still

00:17:23.200 quite a bit. It was just that the Wild Rose and PCs truly couldn't agree on a lot of stuff. So they ended up

00:17:28.400 both running. With the PCs, again, when I hear Guthrie and I hear Scott Sinclair talking about the

00:17:34.940 whole narrative arc for their party, I don't get it. I don't get it at all. It's like, oh, we need

00:17:41.240 less of this than this in politics. Who gives a crap? Honestly. How will we just have good policy? 0.99

00:17:46.780 Because when they were part of the UCP, they were helping contribute to good policy. Why do we want

00:17:51.240 them now in a different vehicle where they still basically kind of describe the same policies as the

00:17:56.680 UCP? But whatever. It's all just stupid. And here's something that's fairly revealing,

00:18:02.260 is that when we saw this hypothetical result come out, we see Peter Guthrie here, the former UCP MLA,

00:18:10.080 saying, fascinating. Join us in building that Alberta PC future. Become a member today in

00:18:16.420 linking to the Alberta party again, attempting to, in effect, steal the old progressive conservative

00:18:22.200 name from the UCP merger. So that should be it for me today, guys. That's just a bit of an overview of

00:18:30.120 what I think is going on in Alberta. I think that this is kind of a project of the Liberals. You

00:18:36.040 couldn't really convince me that this is something that grassroots conservatives want, because the

00:18:40.400 NDP voters don't want it. They're already, they're still voting NDP. They only lose a few points when you

00:18:44.760 add the PC party back in. It might be some Calgary PCers who are very much on the left side who now vote

00:18:50.340 NDP. But this is something where the NDP is not going to hurt itself and drop in support just to

00:18:56.320 have another party on the ballot to hurt their opponents. They'd rather probably hold on to as much as

00:19:00.220 they can. This is obviously something from the outside. And I don't think that Scott Sinclair or even

00:19:05.340 Guthrie can even articulate why it exists. I feel like you'd have to ask the federal Liberals why this

00:19:10.140 exists, because they seem to be the main people motivated to get something like this to happen.

00:19:14.960 Anyways, so, that's it for me today guys. Like, share, and subscribe. Do all that fantastic stuff.

00:19:20.880 Again, get yourself a Sonya Sharp lawn sign in the description below if you're interested. Again, most

00:19:27.400 conservative mayor that can actually win. So, you know, make your own choice. But that's my recommendation.

00:19:34.420 Anyways, with that being said, I will see you guys all later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 25, 2025

Liberals trying to undermine Danielle Smith in Alberta! (Poll analysis)

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