The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - September 10, 2023


Liberals Voters Don't Want A Liberal Majority Government (Trudeau in Trouble)

Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Angus Reid Ben Shapiro Doug Ford Polyev
Lying Is Justin Trudeau's Liberals Only Campaign Strategy Who Still Likes Justin Trudeau's Liberals？

Episode Stats


Length

9 minutes

Words per minute

201.9

Word count

1,850

Sentence count

88

Harmful content

Toxicity

8

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party are in a desperate situation. According to a recent Angus Reid poll, only 30% of their 2021 voters want them to win a majority government, and only 52% of them would like them to only win a minority government.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Imagine how truly pathetic it would be to be a major political party leader in Canada and not actually having your own party's base wanting you to win the next election. 0.91
00:00:08.540 Yes, your base might actually show up and vote for you in the next election, but they don't actually hope that enough other Canadians show up and vote for you that you'd be able to win a majority government. 0.83
00:00:16.960 They feel far more comfortable with you being in a minority government situation, whether it's that they just don't think you can handle the power of a majority government, or they think that you are so corrupt and scandal-ridden, while they agree with your ideology, they still want you counterbalanced by another coalition partner who can hold you accountable.
00:00:34.340 And as pathetic as the situation is that I've just described, this is the exact scenario that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party find themselves in.
00:00:42.220 According to a stat from a recent Angus Reid poll that was a federal national poll, the Liberal Party has 52% of its 2021 voters wanting them to only win a minority government.
00:00:53.740 This is what they consider the best outcome after another election.
00:00:57.260 I'll just pull up the stat sheet right here.
00:01:00.280 The question was, which of the following options do you believe would provide the best government for Canada over the next four years?
00:01:06.140 And it's best underlined, so I doubt anyone missed what this question was specifically trying to get at.
00:01:11.080 And for the Liberal Party, only 30% of their 2021 voters want them to win a majority government.
00:01:17.840 52% want them to win a minority, 7% want the Conservatives to win a majority, and 11% want the Conservatives to win a minority.
00:01:24.240 And now compare that to the Conservatives where 82% of the 2021 voters want them to win a majority government, and 12% want them to win a minority.
00:01:33.140 And I guarantee the minority section for the Conservatives is made up of a lot of Quebecers and maritime voters who tend to lean a bit more center-left and maybe want their party counterbalanced by the Liberals or by the Bloc.
00:01:44.700 Regardless, this is an awful position to be in as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, because while the other polls, like the national polls, are showing that the Liberals are down anywhere from, you know, 8 to 14 points behind the Conservatives, which is already bad enough.
00:02:00.260 What this is showing is that the Liberal Party, if they ever want to crawl back in the polls, it's not just a matter of being able to appeal to Canadians on the fence.
00:02:08.340 They first have to re-establish their own, basically, credibility within the party.
00:02:14.260 They cannot actually hope to win Conservatives over to their side or people who don't know who they want to vote for yet until they've gotten their own party to actually believe in them running a majority government.
00:02:25.160 I doubt that they can appeal to the average Canadian if they can't even vote, they can't even appeal to their own past voters.
00:02:31.820 This is not exactly a situation that Justin Trudeau, I think, is even equipped to recovering from, because to recover from this, Justin Trudeau would have to have the maturity to be able to say,
00:02:42.440 I've made these five mistakes and this is the path I'm going to take to be able to correct all these mistakes that I've made and put Canada on a better road to prosperity.
00:02:50.160 He'll never do that because he's too used to, since becoming Prime Minister, having the media sort of paparazzi, always defending him, always saying everything he's doing is fantastic,
00:03:00.500 everything that the Conservatives say and do is cruel and disgusting and bigoted.
00:03:04.880 So he's just hoping that somehow the legacy media is able to take pure poly of the Conservatives down a notch,
00:03:11.980 or that his own party is able to launch enough attacks that maybe Canadians get freaked out and then come home to the Liberals. 0.95
00:03:17.700 I assume that the Liberals will improve a little bit as the next election approaches because elections tend to make people kind of a little bit silly in the head.
00:03:25.960 People tend to return to a party that hasn't done anything for them because that's what they voted for last time.
00:03:30.580 But I don't think it's going to be enough for Justin Trudeau to ever be able to be Prime Minister again.
00:03:34.980 I think that if you were ever looking for a nail in Justin Trudeau's political coffin, this stat was it.
00:03:40.020 52% of his party not wanting him to actually succeed that much.
00:03:44.260 Now this other stat from Angus Reid I thought was also interesting.
00:03:47.700 The question here was, which of the following federal parties and leaders do you think is best suited to handle Canada's economy?
00:03:54.300 Now, of course, the Conservative Party, it's 85% believe in pure poly of the Conservative Party,
00:03:59.040 and it's like 3% between the NDP and Liberals.
00:04:03.740 So that's probably just, again, the red Tory flakes that are leaving the party after Justin Trudeau stopped being a leader. 0.97
00:04:08.520 You know, all the people who buy into media propaganda are like, oh, the Conservative Party's bigoted because they want, you know, women's washrooms to be for women.
00:04:15.540 And then there's, you know, 10% of Conservatives who just don't know, which probably just means a lot of people who voted Conservative in 2021,
00:04:21.880 but just haven't been paying much attention.
00:04:23.820 But again, jump over to the Liberal Party stat here.
00:04:27.060 54% think that their own party is the best suited party to handling the economy right now.
00:04:33.680 And again, remember this other stat.
00:04:35.520 52% want them to win a minority government.
00:04:38.040 And if you combine that with the stat of people who want them to win a majority,
00:04:42.280 there's 82% of Liberal Party supporters from 2021 who want the Liberals to win the most seats.
00:04:48.900 But only 54% of Liberals actually think that they're the best party for handling the economy.
00:04:55.160 13% think it's the NDP that's the best.
00:04:57.680 12% think it's the Conservatives.
00:04:59.380 And 21% don't know.
00:05:01.900 That is an incredibly indecisive base for being such a well-established party in Canada.
00:05:06.880 And even the NDP have 12% of Canadians thinking that it would be best for the Conservatives to be running the country.
00:05:13.800 And of course, these are 2021 voters.
00:05:15.780 So it doesn't mean that they're still hardcore supporters and they've just recently flipped.
00:05:19.760 They might have flipped a year ago, two years ago.
00:05:22.500 They might have been hardcore Conservatives for the last two years.
00:05:24.820 But at the very least, that was their decision in 2021.
00:05:27.860 And right now, they don't know what to do.
00:05:30.080 Or at least they flipped to a different party or they're staying where they're at.
00:05:34.620 And with, again, the Liberals, which is a over 100-year-old brand,
00:05:39.020 when you cannot actually keep your party, like you can't actually keep the party base coherent.
00:05:44.880 When the party base does not know what they want, that spells trouble for you.
00:05:49.720 That when you do not actually have your base aligned for the party's goals,
00:05:54.980 you're not going to be able to get volunteers or donors or any of the things that you need to be able to run a proper campaign.
00:06:01.240 Justin Trudeau is running an election with a sort of tired base of supporters.
00:06:06.600 They're reluctant supporters.
00:06:07.720 And you cannot win an election with a reluctant base.
00:06:12.820 Doug Ford kind of did it in 2022, but it's just because all the parties pretty much have reluctant bases.
00:06:17.740 And his was the least pathetic compared to the Ontario NDP and the Ontario Liberals.
00:06:23.840 And combine this with Justin Trudeau's approval ratings,
00:06:27.060 which show that there's only about, you know, 32% maximum percentage of Canadians
00:06:31.660 who actually think he's doing a good job.
00:06:33.640 He doesn't have any room to grow.
00:06:35.100 So while his stats are low now, even if he pushes really hard,
00:06:38.780 I only see him adding maximum 5% to his latest polling numbers.
00:06:43.440 And when I say 5%, I mean being added to 26%.
00:06:46.800 So right now, I think his ceiling is only 31% of Canadians who will show back up for the Liberal Party.
00:06:52.820 The party just doesn't have a vision.
00:06:54.620 And that is reflected by the Liberal Party's base not actually wanting them to win the next election.
00:07:00.220 They kind of maybe still want to vote Liberal,
00:07:03.320 but they are not really sure if the Liberal Party really has a proper vision to lead Canada forward.
00:07:08.940 So I think a lot of those people saying, yeah, Liberal Party minority sounds good to me.
00:07:13.340 I guarantee you those people are highly susceptible to voting Conservative next election
00:07:18.100 because the Conservatives, while they might not agree with everything the Conservatives say and do,
00:07:22.200 because obviously if you were able to be swayed to the Liberals,
00:07:24.820 you probably have some ideological disagreements with Conservatives.
00:07:27.720 You could at least agree that Polyev has a bold vision,
00:07:31.120 that his small government vision for Canada is at least better than Justin Trudeau's excuse-making
00:07:36.300 for all the terrible policy outcomes.
00:07:38.640 That Justin Trudeau, because he's used to the Liberal media propping him up,
00:07:42.500 he's never actually had to, you know, chart a new path for Canada as his policies fail.
00:07:47.420 He's just hoping that the Liberal media is going to tell Canadians that, you know,
00:07:51.360 actually all the failed policies that Justin Trudeau has been pushing out are secretly good. 0.98
00:07:55.960 Just read this stupid study I have showing that all the policies are actually secretly amazing. 0.96
00:08:01.640 Did you know that you actually make money on the carbon tax? 1.00
00:08:04.100 Like, garbage like that. 0.98
00:08:06.260 It doesn't work anymore. 0.97
00:08:07.440 And I don't think that Justin Trudeau is, you know,
00:08:10.500 enough of an adult to admit when he's made a mistake
00:08:13.580 and maybe gain some of the respect of Canadians back by proving that he's not just an egomaniac.
00:08:18.520 So, anyways, that's it for me today.
00:08:21.140 Just like I usually do, I have my, in the description of this video,
00:08:25.300 my fundraiser for my legal costs.
00:08:27.300 I'm being sued by a Chinese billionaire.
00:08:28.840 I'm currently winning that case, but it still cost me $15,000 to fight it.
00:08:32.360 So, if you can pitch any money in there, that's greatly appreciated.
00:08:35.180 And then I also have a link for the TNT email list.
00:08:38.860 If you live in the Calgary area, I'd ask you to sign up for that
00:08:42.960 because Ben Shapiro is doing a live show in Southwest Calgary.
00:08:46.260 And if you sign up for the email list,
00:08:47.640 I'll be putting out a ticket code for early bird tickets on September 12th,
00:08:51.880 two days before the tickets go publicly on sale for the event
00:08:55.320 through the Wilberforce Project.
00:08:57.280 So, if you sign up for that, I'll email you the early bird tickets code
00:08:59.820 so that you can make sure that you lock in your ticket for that great event.
00:09:04.360 So, that's going to happen.
00:09:05.420 Anyways, that's it for me today.
00:09:06.580 I hope everyone has a fantastic rest of the weekend.