The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - May 13, 2025


Liberals want separatism to spread to divide Canadians!


Episode Stats


Length

12 minutes

Words per minute

195.78369

Word count

2,492

Sentence count

146

Harmful content

Misogyny

4

sentences flagged

Hate speech

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The Separatist movement in Alberta and Saskatchewan is not going to succeed. It's time to wake up to the fact that the separatist movement is a loser issue, and that it has no chance of winning in either province.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.320 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here.
00:00:03.120 You would normally assume that those who are most interested in the Western Separatist 0.91
00:00:07.720 movement are Western Separatists themselves in Canada.
00:00:11.600 But I actually believe right now in Canada, those most interested in watching the Western
00:00:17.080 Separatist movement get off the ground are the federal liberals as well as the provincial
00:00:22.320 NDP in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia.
00:00:26.880 If we do not learn from our mistakes, we will be doomed to repeat them over and over again.
00:00:32.760 And that is exactly what I believe is happening with the Separatist movement in provinces like 0.66
00:00:37.440 Alberta and Saskatchewan.
00:00:39.380 I'm just going to be very upfront with people.
00:00:42.180 It's not going to succeed.
00:00:43.860 The Separatist movement in Alberta does not have the votes to win, nor does it in Saskatchewan.
00:00:49.580 You're not going to be able to win retired voters in Calgary and Edmonton that you would
00:00:53.900 need to get the referendum across the finish line.
00:00:56.740 So this whole thing is just becoming a sort of a glory charge at the federal liberals,
00:01:02.880 basically showing them how much you dislike them.
00:01:04.980 At the same time, you're giving them exactly what they want.
00:01:08.700 I want to run some through some numbers with you guys today to demonstrate just that the
00:01:12.960 movement isn't viable.
00:01:14.540 And then I want to talk about why Mark Carney, the liberals, the NDP in Alberta with Nenshi
00:01:19.500 and the Saskatchewan NDP with Carla Beck want this movement to get off the ground.
00:01:23.640 They know it's not going to succeed, but they know they could beat their conservative opponents
00:01:28.000 to death with the issue. 0.72
00:01:30.180 This is the Angus Reid poll that came out around last week.
00:01:34.260 In Alberta right now, we have the UCP at around 65% likely to vote for separation.
00:01:41.640 Now, remember, emotions are very high right now.
00:01:45.020 It could go down.
00:01:46.100 Could it go up?
00:01:47.100 Sure.
00:01:48.100 I really doubt it at this point that it's going to continue rising unless the liberals start
00:01:52.040 deliberately doing things to antagonize people in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
00:01:56.760 But that's 65% in favor, and then you get 28% somewhat or very against within the UCP.
00:02:04.420 Now look at the NDP in Alberta, 93% are definitely against it, 4% are leaning against it, and 2%
00:02:10.820 are leaning in favor of it.
00:02:12.080 In Alberta, overall, 52% are definitely against.
00:02:15.180 This is a loser issue.
00:02:17.240 In Saskatchewan, it's even worse for the Saskatchewan party.
00:02:20.180 25% are definitely in favor, but 34% are only leaning in favor, 12% are leaning against,
00:02:27.260 and 19% are definitely against within the conservative Saskatchewan party.
00:02:31.580 The NDP is 90% against, 5% leaning against.
00:02:35.440 That is actually a little bit less than the NDP in Alberta, which probably, you know, it's
00:02:41.560 within the margin of error, but I could also chalk that up to there being a lot more rural
00:02:45.400 areas in Saskatchewan, so there might be some NDP voters less likely to be against it, but
00:02:51.660 it doesn't really matter.
00:02:52.360 Now we're just sort of splitting hairs here.
00:02:55.040 You are not going to be able to get this across the finish line.
00:02:57.920 If this is not a 90% yes issue inside the United Conservative Party of Alberta or the Saskatchewan
00:03:04.580 party, it's not going to pass, because who are you going to turn out to win this over?
00:03:09.400 I guess you could just really turn out people in rural areas, but again, you realize that
00:03:14.340 the liberal government could just say, well, the only reason the yes side of the referendum
00:03:18.260 won was because rural people turned out, but there was low turnout in Calgary and Edmonton.
00:03:22.140 It's not a clear enough result.
00:03:23.440 We're not letting you leave, and that's if you even win the vote in the first place,
00:03:27.560 which I don't think is going to happen.
00:03:30.000 Danielle Smith and Scott Moe are having to walk a tightrope right now.
00:03:33.820 They have more than half of their parties being at least warm to the idea of separatism,
00:03:38.620 so if Danielle Smith and Scott Moe come out and just condemn them, they end up getting
00:03:42.340 roasted by those people, which is why both of them have allowed for citizens' petitions
00:03:45.880 to go forward, which they should be doing, because it's a petition that anyone can put forward,
00:03:51.160 and just because you don't like a petition doesn't mean you can shut it down, and I even
00:03:55.100 have some sympathies to all the arguments the separatists make.
00:03:58.400 I just don't think it is the most useful thing to be doing right now, and because of
00:04:03.420 the reason I'm about to get to.
00:04:05.200 Who benefits the most from all this?
00:04:07.300 It's not the separatists, because they're not going to win, and their movement's going
00:04:09.840 to be set back another 12 years.
00:04:11.520 If you're truly a separatist, wait six years.
00:04:15.340 Build your strength, build your data, then go for it.
00:04:18.600 This kind of idea that you're just going to go for it in the next year with little to
00:04:22.420 no work done and succeed is laughable to me, and I know people in the separatist movement,
00:04:26.880 and I appreciate them, and I like them.
00:04:28.880 At the same time, I don't believe that they can succeed, so they're not interested in the
00:04:34.120 actual success here, because they're not actually going to win.
00:04:36.980 The UCP doesn't want it to win, obviously, because they are still federalists who want
00:04:40.700 to stay in Canada, and I'm talking about the UCP executive, as well as the Saskatchewan
00:04:44.800 Party executive.
00:04:45.500 So they're not interested in this succeeding or getting off the ground, because again,
00:04:49.700 like I said, Western separatists shouldn't be interested in getting off the ground, because
00:04:52.700 you're not ready yet.
00:04:53.920 The people who are interested in this getting off the ground and failing are Mark Carney
00:04:58.840 and the liberals federally, and like I said before, the NDP provincially, even in British
00:05:03.260 Columbia as well, because they can now scaremonger voters in the suburban areas of their
00:05:09.080 provinces that you better vote for the NDP, because the UCP secretly wants us to separate.
00:05:14.060 And as much as you can think, well, those people should be in favor of separatism, because here's
00:05:19.140 all these great arguments, and I've heard all those great arguments, your great arguments
00:05:23.060 don't change the fact that people don't want to do it.
00:05:25.680 Retired voters don't want to have to sign up for a new pension system, even if it's better. 0.90
00:05:32.220 People don't think like that.
00:05:33.320 They just don't want change.
00:05:34.860 Many of these people were not born in Alberta.
00:05:38.120 They were not born in Saskatchewan.
00:05:39.460 They came from Eastern Canada.
00:05:41.040 They don't want to separate from Canada.
00:05:43.600 They like Canada with all the flaws, and there are a lot of flaws.
00:05:47.660 And so what the NDP and the liberals can do, and they can both do it in their own unique
00:05:52.280 ways.
00:05:52.940 Remember, the liberals just got away with a fake patriotism issue in the federal election.
00:05:57.420 That's what got them.
00:05:58.460 The win was the idea that you better vote for us to show that you don't like Donald Trump,
00:06:02.320 because the conservatives are too much like Republicans, and they'll cave to Trump, even
00:06:07.000 though Mark Carney immediately caved to Trump and started acting very nice to him as soon
00:06:10.780 as he was elected, because it was obvious that the prime minister was never going to
00:06:13.800 be antagonistic to the U.S. president.
00:06:16.180 That would be insane and suicidal for Canada economically to start bad-mouthing the U.S.
00:06:21.120 president right after you get elected.
00:06:22.600 But now, what Mark Carney can do is that he could call an election the next year and a
00:06:27.480 half and say, you know what, you need to vote for me because I need to do something to prevent
00:06:31.220 Western separatism from succeeding.
00:06:33.380 The conservatives won't stop them.
00:06:34.840 I'm going to keep Canada whole.
00:06:36.920 It might sound stupid to you.
00:06:38.160 It might sound like that's a bad argument.
00:06:39.760 The Trump argument was probably worse than this one, and they might even have a better
00:06:43.400 angle to getting Western conservative voters, older Western conservative voters who have
00:06:48.740 a nostalgia and a nostalgic patriotism for Canada to show up and vote liberal to stick
00:06:54.700 it to those separatists, even though none of the conservative parties support the separatists.
00:07:00.180 The Republican Party of Alberta launched recently because there is no other provincial party
00:07:04.680 that is in favor of separatism, at least any credible party that isn't more than like
00:07:09.500 a few thousand people.
00:07:11.200 And so the problem with Daniel Smith right now for her is that she's going to get beat to
00:07:15.820 death on this issue because she's not attacking the separatists enough, but if she did attack 1.00
00:07:20.260 them, she would get attacked by the separatists and they would all vote for the Republican
00:07:23.000 Party and put a bunch of those MLAs in the legislature from the rural areas while the NDP
00:07:27.820 absolutely dominates in Edmonton, Calgary, and some of those more suburban rural areas that
00:07:34.140 are attached to it.
00:07:34.900 They could win Chestermere Strathmore on that issue.
00:07:38.000 Anywhere that separatism doesn't have 60% support, easily.
00:07:41.420 The NDP could pick it up in a provincial election in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
00:07:48.060 Even David Eby could exploit this issue in British Columbia because there are separatist
00:07:52.500 areas, pro-separatist areas in the West, and if the conservatives in British Columbia are
00:07:58.060 not hard enough on them, well, then he can say, you better vote for me because I'm going
00:08:01.720 to make sure that the separatist nonsense stops right here.
00:08:04.740 And it's all a distraction from real election issues around people's personal prosperity,
00:08:10.040 taxes, crime, social issues, education, health care.
00:08:13.960 Those are the things that an actual election should be about.
00:08:16.600 And what we have to stop doing as conservatives is giving the liberals issues where they get
00:08:21.600 to run on it and easily win because it's a stupid, dumb patriotism test that the left
00:08:28.140 naturally wins in Canada because so many people consider their patriotism in Canada to really
00:08:33.220 just be in opposition to America.
00:08:34.640 And because the conservatives are considered too Republican and Republicans are considered
00:08:39.420 uber-Americans, it makes conservatives half-American.
00:08:42.680 So if the liberals can get the issue of U.S. and Canada on the ballot or even Canada versus
00:08:47.500 separation on the ballot, they can win any election they want because people genuinely
00:08:51.900 vote in that kind of a way.
00:08:53.860 We already see this materializing right now.
00:08:56.560 Look at what the Alberta NDP is doing.
00:08:58.960 By the way, they blocked me because they're that pathetic.
00:09:00.900 I think they blocked me in the last provincial election.
00:09:03.360 Look at this.
00:09:04.200 This is their actual advertisement.
00:09:07.060 This is an actual ad that they're running right now, or at least a post they put up.
00:09:10.600 It says, Danielle Smith is a separatist.
00:09:12.700 She wants Alberta to leave Canada because she simply doesn't believe in what it means to 0.88
00:09:16.420 be Canadian.
00:09:17.400 She's not interested in moving Alberta forward.
00:09:19.320 She's only working to tear us and our country apart. 1.00
00:09:22.340 And then you have this video here with a graphic that says, Daniel Smith is a separatist.
00:09:26.840 NDP alleges after Bill 54 proposes lower a referendum threshold.
00:09:32.200 And guess what?
00:09:32.680 She's right to actually lower the referendum threshold because the referendum threshold
00:09:37.260 was ridiculously high.
00:09:39.060 To get a referendum forward, you need like 600,000 petition signatures, which is stupid.
00:09:45.100 She lowered it to like 176,000 or is proposing to lower it that much. 1.00
00:09:49.380 Makes sense to me why she would do that.
00:09:51.200 You cannot like a separatist, but a referendum, I wouldn't vote for separation.
00:09:56.560 Doesn't mean I don't understand it.
00:09:58.320 Absolutely.
00:09:59.120 Absolutely.
00:09:59.660 I understand it.
00:10:00.840 I have my own complex views on that issue.
00:10:03.280 And it's not just, I don't like separatism and I love Canada.
00:10:06.080 I can give you more than that on it.
00:10:08.540 But this is an issue.
00:10:10.100 It doesn't matter how dishonest the NDP are being.
00:10:12.560 They can get a lot of juice out of this.
00:10:14.940 NDP saying, we know we are stronger together.
00:10:17.840 Join the thousands of Albertans who are proud to be Canadian.
00:10:20.240 Tell Daniel Smith to shove her separatism back into the closet where it belongs.
00:10:25.780 And they're collecting data from people who think that by signing this, they are somehow
00:10:30.780 going to be saving Canada, preventing separation when the separatists can't win a referendum
00:10:37.720 anyways.
00:10:38.620 So who cares?
00:10:40.940 Voters care.
00:10:41.980 And they will vote for the NDP for that very dishonest reason.
00:10:44.420 So Western conservatives, be very careful what you're pushing right now, because what
00:10:50.420 you might be pushing is a referendum defeat and a provincial election defeat.
00:10:55.960 And the thing is that there's no way of getting a referendum win in this current timeline.
00:11:00.480 You got to wait a while.
00:11:01.660 You got to get a more charismatic leader.
00:11:03.580 And you have to gain data that proves that you can win.
00:11:07.120 Don't just gain enough data to get the petition signatures.
00:11:09.400 You need like a million votes.
00:11:11.200 If you can get a million votes in Alberta for separatism, maybe you can do it.
00:11:15.500 I would say you probably need like one and a half million.
00:11:17.980 If you don't have one and a half million reliable people to show up for separatism, you're not
00:11:21.860 winning.
00:11:22.940 And so if you push it right now and you lose, there is a good chance the UCP in Alberta goes
00:11:28.300 down to flaming defeat in the election, even if the referendum gets defeated a year before.
00:11:32.700 Because the NDP will run on the fact that Daniel Smith is going to try it again, even
00:11:36.400 though she's anti-separatist.
00:11:37.800 They don't care.
00:11:39.500 The news media doesn't care.
00:11:40.740 And they will basically inject this propaganda into people's brains, saying that if you don't
00:11:45.500 vote for the NDP, then Alberta is going to not only become a separate country, it's going
00:11:50.460 to join the United States and there's going to be Trump signs everywhere.
00:11:54.100 They will run on that.
00:11:55.160 And there will be people who believe it if this Western separatist stuff gets pushed in
00:11:58.780 the way it is.
00:11:59.400 You can push for autonomy.
00:12:00.740 You can even push for separatism someday.
00:12:03.140 Separatism next year or the year after that, dude, that's electoral suicide.
00:12:07.060 But anyways, so that's it for this video, guys.
00:12:11.720 Again, apologies for originally posting this video without any audio.
00:12:16.000 I actually do like this version of the video better.
00:12:18.400 I was way ramblier in the first video.
00:12:20.580 And you might be thinking, Wyatt, how is that possible?
00:12:22.600 You're always very rambly.
00:12:24.520 There's degrees.
00:12:25.940 There's degrees to how rambly I get.
00:12:28.200 But anyway, so if you like this video, make sure to drop a like on the video.
00:12:31.640 Subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a subscriber.
00:12:33.560 And leave a comment.
00:12:34.280 What do you think about separatism?
00:12:35.940 What do you think that Carney and the Liberals and the NDP are going to be doing with the
00:12:39.860 separatist issue over the next year?
00:12:41.760 And I'll see you guys all later.