The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Liberals will fall hard after their FAKE polling surge!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. So I've made a lot of videos about polling over the past few weeks

00:00:06.460 because every time a new batch of numbers comes out that supposedly shows the Liberals are quickly

00:00:12.640 catching up with Pierre Polyev's Conservatives, I have a bunch of people message me wondering if

00:00:18.460 this is a real trend or it's a fake poll. Now I can tell you right now there are very few fake

00:00:25.560 polls in Canadian politics. I would consider ECOS at this point a fake pollster. They will release

00:00:32.280 polls with ridiculous regionals like the Green Party of Canada having 18% in Atlantic Canada

00:00:39.060 or the PPC being at 16% in Manitoba. That's obviously not a real result but Frank Craves will publish it

00:00:47.760 anyways. The other pollsters I don't think are putting out fake results that are showing the

00:00:52.580 Liberal surging. What I think is happening is they are not properly correcting for what I've talked

00:00:59.240 about in the past and that is a response bias. If Liberals become super energetic at taking polls

00:01:06.100 because they have a leadership race going on and they're far less depressed after Justin Trudeau

00:01:11.820 has stepped down as leader or effectively stepped down as leader, then you are going to see a Liberal

00:01:18.040 surge that way outpaces their actual rise in support in the general population. And the reason I'm making

00:01:25.780 this video today is I think I have a piece of proof that demonstrates that this is purely a response

00:01:33.420 bias. Before I get into it guys just make sure to like this video. If you're not yet a subscriber make

00:01:39.440 sure to hit the subscribe button. I'm trying to go for a hundred thousand new subscribers by the time

00:01:44.680 December hits. And then also leave me a comment on whatever you think on the topic. It always helps

00:01:50.460 me in the algorithm and I usually like to scroll through and see what people are saying. Anyways,

00:01:55.700 without further ado, I want to talk about this poll coming out by Leger that specifically polled people

00:02:02.140 on how would you vote if Justin Trudeau was still the Liberal leader or Mark Carney was the Liberal

00:02:09.580 leader. And suspiciously, despite the fact that Trudeau, when he decided to announce that he will resign

00:02:17.100 in March, he was at 20%. Now he's at 33% in this Leger poll. Leger, like every other pollster, showed that

00:02:27.400 in early January and late December, Trudeau was around anywhere from 17% as Liberal Party leader up to

00:02:36.380 maybe 23% in a rare poll. Since January 7th, when he made the announcement that he'd be stepping down,

00:02:45.240 do you seriously believe that 10% of Canadians have just re-rallied behind the Liberal Party

00:02:51.880 regardless of who the leader is? And someone's going to then say to me, well Wyatt, it's because of the

00:02:57.600 trade war. Canadians are really gullible and because Donald Trump threatened a trade war and he said things

00:03:03.180 about the 51st state, suddenly a bunch of Canadians want to vote Liberal just to spite Trump because

00:03:09.300 the Liberals have said Pollyov is like Trump. No, because this whole trade issue started in late

00:03:16.520 November, early December. So how would Trudeau have been polling really bad then in the heat of the

00:03:24.980 moment? But now that the trade war has passed, he is at his highest point in polling since like three

00:03:33.000 years ago. This is what he was polling at when Pollyov first became the Conservative Party leader

00:03:39.980 and Conservatives still really hadn't come back to the party since O'Toole ruined the brand in the 2021

00:03:46.200 election. And it's because nobody really has come back to the Liberals. They are simply just

00:03:53.240 taking polls more. And so we have the Liberals rising. The funny thing is Conservatives are still

00:03:59.120 at 41% because Conservatives have mostly stayed consistent in their rate of taking polls. And so

00:04:06.700 they still have that big chunk in these polls. I think they should probably be more at like 43%

00:04:12.400 or 44%, but 41-40 is still not bad for them. With Mark Carney supposedly as the leader, the Liberals are now

00:04:20.300 at 39%, the Bloc at 6%, and the Conservatives at 40%. Now, I really don't believe the NDP would simply be

00:04:29.880 at 9% or even 11%. Jagmeet Singh might be an awful leader. And I have said it thousands of times in the

00:04:38.340 past, Jagmeet Singh sucks at politics. Does he 9% suck at politics? I really don't think so. More than half the 0.99

00:04:47.860 population of the country doesn't even know who Mark Carney is. And I'm seriously supposed to believe

00:04:53.920 this man is at 39%. The guy has a new scandal like every day at this point of him saying something

00:05:02.220 absolutely nutty in the past or him saying something crazy today. And I think that in the liberal

00:05:09.020 leadership debate, he's probably going to fall in his face. He still might win the leadership race,

00:05:13.480 but he's going to fall in his face because the entire guy's persona is fake. It's the idea that

00:05:19.780 he is a central bank monetary policy expert, even though when he was the Bank of Canada, Governor

00:05:26.740 Trudeau, I'm sorry, Harper and Flaherty were having to tell him everything to do, what to do at every

00:05:32.540 point. And then since then, when he was the governor of the Bank of England, he engaged in massive

00:05:37.160 inflationary spending. This is pre-COVID, and he was extremely high-handed and pushing for far-left

00:05:42.760 policy. And then advising Trudeau and the liberals, he's basically told them to do every single

00:05:48.460 terrible thing that ended up tanking Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland's popularity. But I guess he

00:05:54.280 must be some sort of superstar because the media keeps saying, he's not, nobody actually likes this

00:05:59.160 guy. So this is what I'm saying when I say that this makes no sense to me, and it's a response bias.

00:06:05.120 Trudeau didn't suddenly gain anywhere from 16% to 10% in national polls just because a trade war was

00:06:15.300 threatened. Because he didn't gain in December, he ain't gaining now. Liberals are just taking the

00:06:21.320 polls more. I just want to quickly jump over to some other poll results that we got from these

00:06:26.420 things. I have this one right here, if people were to vote in election today. Again, there's more

00:06:33.640 regional problems. Look, in Atlantic Canada, one, they somehow only polled 75 people. Most of this

00:06:40.660 poll isn't ridiculous with Trudeau and power. I don't doubt that the liberals might be able to get

00:06:45.760 to 33% with a new leader if the news cycle really favors them and they don't make too many mistakes.

00:06:51.600 But right now, the conservatives are not at 23% in Atlantic Canada. All the polls, up until five

00:06:59.780 seconds ago, showed them anywhere from like 40% up to 50%. I don't think the party suddenly switched

00:07:07.200 and now Trudeau's liberals are back to 52%, which is as high as Trudeau had in 2015. I'm sorry,

00:07:16.560 that's just not how polling works. But overall, like Chris the Great Canadian Bagel, who is a poll

00:07:22.820 analyst, has pointed out, the regionals here aren't terrible. But at the same time, with all this

00:07:28.460 excitement and all with all this response bias, 33% sucks. And I simply do not believe Mark Carney is 0.98

00:07:36.240 at 39% because I doubt 39% of people know who he is. This, again, is just people being spurred on to

00:07:44.980 take polls because they're following the leadership race and they are now newly excited by the fact that

00:07:50.280 Trudeau isn't an anchor on the party. Sheree Attiste modeled out what the poll of Mark Carney being a 0.79

00:07:59.280 leader would do to the seat counts. Based on the people you talk to in real life, not just your

00:08:06.160 friend group, just the vibe of people, are the liberals going to win a majority government of 185

00:08:12.460 seats and the conservatives would just gain a couple seats? The bloc is not losing 15 seats,

00:08:19.060 by the way. The NDP is not going to be at zero seats. That is not happening. Jagmeet Singh's party is not

00:08:26.900 going to lose downtown Winnipeg and a lot of these downtown Toronto and Vancouver ridings that they've had

00:08:32.980 for like a decade. That isn't how polling works. This is not how public opinion changes over time. I want to

00:08:40.620 find this other thing that Chris said. I think that was quite good.

00:08:50.320 He said right here, and this is a commenting on the Leger poll with Trudeau as leader, he says,

00:08:54.880 every single subsample except Atlantic Canada looks plausible to me. My two cents is that barring one

00:09:01.400 or more of the Atlantic provinces swinging in a different direction than Nova Scotia, the region

00:09:06.100 should be CPC 40. And I later commented to him on this, that to me, I would agree that the

00:09:14.100 conservatives should be at least at 40% in Atlantic Canada. And that should probably pump up the national

00:09:20.200 lead for the conservatives from anywhere from plus 10 up to plus 12. Again, I think this is just one of

00:09:28.980 those examples where people are going to have to wait. People are going to have to wait for a new

00:09:34.860 batch of polls to come out in like a month and a half. So we actually see where we're at. Because

00:09:40.540 simply right now, there isn't the bandwidth for the liberals to have people pay attention and switch

00:09:46.900 their vote. Even Doug Ford is ahead right now in Ontario. Do you seriously think Doug Ford, one of

00:09:54.880 the least popular premiers in the country, is ahead in the polls, but Polyev is starting to fall behind?

00:10:01.760 I really don't think so. Polyev can still fill up rooms of thousands of people. Mark Carney, with a lot

00:10:08.820 of effort, can get like a quarter of the size of a room that Polyev brings in filled up to surround

00:10:14.580 him and make it look like there's a lot of support when it's just like the typical amount of liberals

00:10:19.280 who usually live in Vancouver showing up or whatever. So yeah, I don't really think that

00:10:26.020 like Carney, with all the scandals, is going to catch up. I really don't think a bunch of Canadians 1.00

00:10:31.820 suddenly forgave Justin Trudeau. And I don't think that a new paint job, even in the year 2025,

00:10:38.060 actually brings people home to vote for the Liberal Party. You can tell. Liberal ministers are resigning

00:10:46.240 left and right. Pascal Saint-Ange just resigned. There was that other lady, Jennifer O'Connell,

00:10:52.600 just resigned. Arefa Rani resigned. Mary New resigned. Or at least they're all not running for

00:10:58.180 re-election. But still, my point stands. These people in swing ridings and safe ridings don't

00:11:04.720 think it's worth sticking around. And some of them are endorsing Mark Carney. You think the people

00:11:09.480 endorsing Mark Carney think they have to flee? They know that their seats and their positions as

00:11:14.840 ministers are secured if he wins. Most of these people endorsed him. So why are they leaving?

00:11:20.360 Probably because it ain't gonna work out the way that they think it is. Anyways, so that should be it

00:11:26.120 for me today, guys. I'm technically traveling when this video comes out. So forgive me if tomorrow's

00:11:32.160 video is a little bit truncated. I'm flying out to Kitchener, Cambridge area to help the new blue 0.97

00:11:37.720 party out in the provincial election out there. By the way, I'm going to link Chris, the Great

00:11:44.680 Canadian Bagels poll, in the description below as well as pinned to the top of the comments.

00:11:50.120 He's just wondering how people are voting in the provincial election in Ontario. So fill out that

00:11:56.260 poll because he wants to put out his own model for what he thinks is going to go on in the provincial

00:12:00.900 election. And so he kind of crowdsources voters from different people's communities because it

00:12:06.540 helps balance a poll better than oftentimes just randomly posting links to his poll. So fill that

00:12:12.940 out and I'll see you guys later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 20, 2025

Liberals will fall hard after their FAKE polling surge!

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