Liberals will fall hard after their FAKE polling surge!
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Summary
A new poll has the Liberals catching up to the Tories in the polls, but is it a real trend or is it the result of a fake poll or a response bias? In this video, I explain why I think this could be happening and why it doesn't really matter who the next leader is.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. So I've made a lot of videos about polling over the past few weeks
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because every time a new batch of numbers comes out that supposedly shows the Liberals are quickly
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catching up with Pierre Polyev's Conservatives, I have a bunch of people message me wondering if
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this is a real trend or it's a fake poll. Now I can tell you right now there are very few fake
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polls in Canadian politics. I would consider ECOS at this point a fake pollster. They will release
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polls with ridiculous regionals like the Green Party of Canada having 18% in Atlantic Canada
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or the PPC being at 16% in Manitoba. That's obviously not a real result but Frank Craves will publish it
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anyways. The other pollsters I don't think are putting out fake results that are showing the
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Liberal surging. What I think is happening is they are not properly correcting for what I've talked
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about in the past and that is a response bias. If Liberals become super energetic at taking polls
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because they have a leadership race going on and they're far less depressed after Justin Trudeau
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has stepped down as leader or effectively stepped down as leader, then you are going to see a Liberal
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surge that way outpaces their actual rise in support in the general population. And the reason I'm making
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this video today is I think I have a piece of proof that demonstrates that this is purely a response
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bias. Before I get into it guys just make sure to like this video. If you're not yet a subscriber make
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sure to hit the subscribe button. I'm trying to go for a hundred thousand new subscribers by the time
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December hits. And then also leave me a comment on whatever you think on the topic. It always helps
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me in the algorithm and I usually like to scroll through and see what people are saying. Anyways,
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without further ado, I want to talk about this poll coming out by Leger that specifically polled people
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on how would you vote if Justin Trudeau was still the Liberal leader or Mark Carney was the Liberal
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leader. And suspiciously, despite the fact that Trudeau, when he decided to announce that he will resign
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in March, he was at 20%. Now he's at 33% in this Leger poll. Leger, like every other pollster, showed that
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in early January and late December, Trudeau was around anywhere from 17% as Liberal Party leader up to
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maybe 23% in a rare poll. Since January 7th, when he made the announcement that he'd be stepping down,
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do you seriously believe that 10% of Canadians have just re-rallied behind the Liberal Party
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regardless of who the leader is? And someone's going to then say to me, well Wyatt, it's because of the
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trade war. Canadians are really gullible and because Donald Trump threatened a trade war and he said things
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about the 51st state, suddenly a bunch of Canadians want to vote Liberal just to spite Trump because
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the Liberals have said Pollyov is like Trump. No, because this whole trade issue started in late
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November, early December. So how would Trudeau have been polling really bad then in the heat of the
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moment? But now that the trade war has passed, he is at his highest point in polling since like three
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years ago. This is what he was polling at when Pollyov first became the Conservative Party leader
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and Conservatives still really hadn't come back to the party since O'Toole ruined the brand in the 2021
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election. And it's because nobody really has come back to the Liberals. They are simply just
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taking polls more. And so we have the Liberals rising. The funny thing is Conservatives are still
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at 41% because Conservatives have mostly stayed consistent in their rate of taking polls. And so
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they still have that big chunk in these polls. I think they should probably be more at like 43%
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or 44%, but 41-40 is still not bad for them. With Mark Carney supposedly as the leader, the Liberals are now
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at 39%, the Bloc at 6%, and the Conservatives at 40%. Now, I really don't believe the NDP would simply be
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at 9% or even 11%. Jagmeet Singh might be an awful leader. And I have said it thousands of times in the
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past, Jagmeet Singh sucks at politics. Does he 9% suck at politics? I really don't think so. More than half the
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population of the country doesn't even know who Mark Carney is. And I'm seriously supposed to believe
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this man is at 39%. The guy has a new scandal like every day at this point of him saying something
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absolutely nutty in the past or him saying something crazy today. And I think that in the liberal
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leadership debate, he's probably going to fall in his face. He still might win the leadership race,
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but he's going to fall in his face because the entire guy's persona is fake. It's the idea that
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he is a central bank monetary policy expert, even though when he was the Bank of Canada, Governor
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Trudeau, I'm sorry, Harper and Flaherty were having to tell him everything to do, what to do at every
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point. And then since then, when he was the governor of the Bank of England, he engaged in massive
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inflationary spending. This is pre-COVID, and he was extremely high-handed and pushing for far-left
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policy. And then advising Trudeau and the liberals, he's basically told them to do every single
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terrible thing that ended up tanking Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland's popularity. But I guess he
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must be some sort of superstar because the media keeps saying, he's not, nobody actually likes this
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guy. So this is what I'm saying when I say that this makes no sense to me, and it's a response bias.
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Trudeau didn't suddenly gain anywhere from 16% to 10% in national polls just because a trade war was
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threatened. Because he didn't gain in December, he ain't gaining now. Liberals are just taking the
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polls more. I just want to quickly jump over to some other poll results that we got from these
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things. I have this one right here, if people were to vote in election today. Again, there's more
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regional problems. Look, in Atlantic Canada, one, they somehow only polled 75 people. Most of this
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poll isn't ridiculous with Trudeau and power. I don't doubt that the liberals might be able to get
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to 33% with a new leader if the news cycle really favors them and they don't make too many mistakes.
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But right now, the conservatives are not at 23% in Atlantic Canada. All the polls, up until five
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seconds ago, showed them anywhere from like 40% up to 50%. I don't think the party suddenly switched
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and now Trudeau's liberals are back to 52%, which is as high as Trudeau had in 2015. I'm sorry,
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that's just not how polling works. But overall, like Chris the Great Canadian Bagel, who is a poll
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analyst, has pointed out, the regionals here aren't terrible. But at the same time, with all this
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excitement and all with all this response bias, 33% sucks. And I simply do not believe Mark Carney is
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at 39% because I doubt 39% of people know who he is. This, again, is just people being spurred on to
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take polls because they're following the leadership race and they are now newly excited by the fact that
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Trudeau isn't an anchor on the party. Sheree Attiste modeled out what the poll of Mark Carney being a
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leader would do to the seat counts. Based on the people you talk to in real life, not just your
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friend group, just the vibe of people, are the liberals going to win a majority government of 185
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seats and the conservatives would just gain a couple seats? The bloc is not losing 15 seats,
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by the way. The NDP is not going to be at zero seats. That is not happening. Jagmeet Singh's party is not
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going to lose downtown Winnipeg and a lot of these downtown Toronto and Vancouver ridings that they've had
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for like a decade. That isn't how polling works. This is not how public opinion changes over time. I want to
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find this other thing that Chris said. I think that was quite good.
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He said right here, and this is a commenting on the Leger poll with Trudeau as leader, he says,
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every single subsample except Atlantic Canada looks plausible to me. My two cents is that barring one
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or more of the Atlantic provinces swinging in a different direction than Nova Scotia, the region
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should be CPC 40. And I later commented to him on this, that to me, I would agree that the
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conservatives should be at least at 40% in Atlantic Canada. And that should probably pump up the national
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lead for the conservatives from anywhere from plus 10 up to plus 12. Again, I think this is just one of
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those examples where people are going to have to wait. People are going to have to wait for a new
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batch of polls to come out in like a month and a half. So we actually see where we're at. Because
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simply right now, there isn't the bandwidth for the liberals to have people pay attention and switch
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their vote. Even Doug Ford is ahead right now in Ontario. Do you seriously think Doug Ford, one of
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the least popular premiers in the country, is ahead in the polls, but Polyev is starting to fall behind?
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I really don't think so. Polyev can still fill up rooms of thousands of people. Mark Carney, with a lot
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of effort, can get like a quarter of the size of a room that Polyev brings in filled up to surround
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him and make it look like there's a lot of support when it's just like the typical amount of liberals
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who usually live in Vancouver showing up or whatever. So yeah, I don't really think that
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like Carney, with all the scandals, is going to catch up. I really don't think a bunch of Canadians
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suddenly forgave Justin Trudeau. And I don't think that a new paint job, even in the year 2025,
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actually brings people home to vote for the Liberal Party. You can tell. Liberal ministers are resigning
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left and right. Pascal Saint-Ange just resigned. There was that other lady, Jennifer O'Connell,
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just resigned. Arefa Rani resigned. Mary New resigned. Or at least they're all not running for
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re-election. But still, my point stands. These people in swing ridings and safe ridings don't
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think it's worth sticking around. And some of them are endorsing Mark Carney. You think the people
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endorsing Mark Carney think they have to flee? They know that their seats and their positions as
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ministers are secured if he wins. Most of these people endorsed him. So why are they leaving?
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Probably because it ain't gonna work out the way that they think it is. Anyways, so that should be it
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for me today, guys. I'm technically traveling when this video comes out. So forgive me if tomorrow's
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video is a little bit truncated. I'm flying out to Kitchener, Cambridge area to help the new blue
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party out in the provincial election out there. By the way, I'm going to link Chris, the Great
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Canadian Bagels poll, in the description below as well as pinned to the top of the comments.
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He's just wondering how people are voting in the provincial election in Ontario. So fill out that
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poll because he wants to put out his own model for what he thinks is going to go on in the provincial
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election. And so he kind of crowdsources voters from different people's communities because it
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helps balance a poll better than oftentimes just randomly posting links to his poll. So fill that