The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 12, 2025


Mark Carney's Liberals have NOTHING to campaign on!


Episode Stats


Length

26 minutes

Words per minute

177.84962

Word count

4,749

Sentence count

324

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Hate speech

6

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this segment, I talk about what the Liberals are going to run on in the next federal election and why I don't think it's going to be much different than what they have been running on since Justin Trudeau was elected Prime Minister in 2015.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.080 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. In my past videos, I've talked about many of the scandals as well as weaknesses that Mark Carney has as a politician and why I suspect that he will make for a very weak Liberal Party leader.
00:00:14.360 And I've also talked about the Polic weakness that I think the Liberals still have with Mark Carney as leader, both regionally and with certain demographics.
00:00:23.180 Today, what I want to talk about, now that Mark Carney is the Liberal leader and soon to be Prime Minister, what the Liberals are actually going to run on in the next federal election.
00:00:33.680 Because I think right now in Liberal HQ, they think that they have set themselves up to be able to win the next federal election.
00:00:41.700 Again, despite Mark Carney's lack of charisma, he's an extremely boring person with a lot of scandals, as well as their polling still being pretty weak.
00:00:49.720 They think that they're set up, but I guarantee in the next couple of days, it's going to set in crap.
00:00:56.180 We don't actually have anything to run on. And that's my opinion on how this next federal race is going to go.
00:01:02.620 The Liberals have a lot of attack lines that they've been trying to use on Pierre Polyev and the Americans, but you actually still have to run on something.
00:01:11.540 I keep hearing that the federal election could be called next week, although we've been hearing that for two years.
00:01:17.380 Oh, it's right around the corner. Everyone's being told to print up your literature and get your signs ready because there's about to be a federal election and then it never happens.
00:01:26.500 And I'm skeptical that it would happen next week because Mark Carney hasn't done anything yet.
00:01:32.140 Does he really want to be the guy introducing himself as Prime Minister only on the campaign trail?
00:01:38.480 Or is he going to want at least a couple of months to get people kind of comfortable with the idea he's Prime Minister before pulling the trigger?
00:01:46.800 Because if I'm a Liberal advisor, I would say, Mark, you've got to have at least one or two policy achievements before you trigger the next election.
00:01:55.960 A main platform plank of his, in fact, was that he was going to get rid of the carbon tax.
00:02:02.080 He still supports the carbon tax and it's kind of a farce that he's getting rid of it.
00:02:05.860 Really, you just reorganize how it's paid for, you know, move it from a consumer carbon tax to being an industrial carbon tax in which it would still have the exact same effect on prices and the economy in general.
00:02:16.920 But he hasn't gotten rid of it yet.
00:02:18.340 So was he going to run on the idea that he might get rid of it?
00:02:21.820 Because that's not good politics.
00:02:24.320 This is why Blaine Higgs lost in New Brunswick for the provincial election.
00:02:28.720 Blaine Higgs was a great Premier.
00:02:31.000 Honestly, probably one of the best Premiers since Ralph Klein in the country because the guy actually balanced a budget in the Maritimes, which is impressive, and he had set himself up to cut taxes.
00:02:40.620 But instead of cutting taxes and running on the fact he cut taxes, instead Blaine Higgs ran on the fact that he will cut taxes if he wins again.
00:02:49.520 And it's only like a 2% HST cut in which I say, who cares?
00:02:53.660 That is not a big cornerstone.
00:02:55.660 That is not like a big keystone policy to any platform.
00:03:00.460 And so right now, the Liberals don't have any achievements.
00:03:03.800 What are they going to run on universal dental care?
00:03:05.840 Nobody actually thinks it's been a success.
00:03:08.240 The Housing Accelerator Fund, everyone understands that housing has actually been very sluggish in its rate of increase.
00:03:14.740 In fact, the amount of houses being built each year have been going down for three years straight now.
00:03:19.480 Crime's terrible.
00:03:20.460 The economy overall is not very good.
00:03:22.440 Immigration's out of control. 1.00
00:03:23.580 They don't have anything to actually run on in terms of a policy achievement.
00:03:28.200 And it just seems like a slap in the face to Canadians then to swap out Trudeau with Carney and then trigger an election and say, vote for this guy.
00:03:36.100 He's not the last guy.
00:03:38.020 But anyways, now I want to get into what I think the actual liberal strategy is right now.
00:03:44.060 And, you know, spoiler alert, I am a conservative, but I don't think it's going to work because nobody votes for the person who's just attacking other people.
00:03:54.140 Attacks work, but you have to follow up and attack with a proper alternative.
00:03:58.920 Here's our alternative policy.
00:04:00.560 And they don't even attack Polyev or the conservatives' policies.
00:04:04.800 They're just attacking them.
00:04:06.840 And that just seems childish.
00:04:08.880 But anyways, before I get into this next segment, guys, remember to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, do all that wonderful stuff.
00:04:16.060 And now let's get into the latest attack where they're trying to say that pure Polyev is an evil, evil, bad man because he is associated in some vague way with Donald Trump, despite the fact that Donald Trump has said Polyev is not mega and has attacked him before.
00:04:32.100 Here is a seven-second clip.
00:04:34.080 Yes, seven seconds that the liberals have posted to their own ex-account.
00:04:38.140 This was on March 11th yesterday.
00:04:40.300 And it says, pure Polyev won't stand up to Donald Trump and Trump's friends know it.
00:04:45.800 The only Mark, only Mark Carney will stand against Donald Trump.
00:04:48.700 And by the way, Ben Shapiro is not Donald Trump's friend.
00:04:51.460 It's not because they hate each other, but not everyone who's an American political commentary is Trump's friend.
00:04:56.420 They had to clip this deeply out of context in order to make it seem like pure Polyev is saying that, or sorry, that Ben Shapiro is saying that pure Polyev will give Trump Canada or whatever.
00:05:08.420 Are you going to get more from Canada with Pierre Polyev as the prime minister than you're going to get from Mark Carney?
00:05:14.320 The answer is yes.
00:05:16.760 Now, this is how thin the liberals' attack line on Pierre Polyev has gotten.
00:05:22.520 It's gone past, they've had to go a little bit further past just saying Trump's name and Polyev's name and showing that they sometimes use extremely common words together,
00:05:32.180 as if, like, you know, pure Polyev can say fake news and Trump can say fake news and that, for some reason, associates the two, like, deeply.
00:05:40.660 But that seven-second clip made it sound like Ben Shapiro is saying that Trump can extract more gains out of pure Polyev.
00:05:48.060 He can rip away Canada's sovereignty.
00:05:50.540 He's going to sell them Manitoba just for the fun of it.
00:05:53.900 That's obviously not what was being said.
00:05:55.640 What Ben Shapiro was saying is basically if you want a better partner in NATO to work for, a better partner on border security and a better partner when it comes to free trade, you'll want pure Polyev. 0.97
00:06:07.460 In fact, this was a clip that if you actually watch the full version, at the very start of that segment where Shapiro was talking about Canada,
00:06:17.840 he immediately starts talking about why it's foolish that Donald Trump is pursuing tariffs without any clear end goal.
00:06:23.460 Again, if there's a deliverable, great.
00:06:26.080 And force Canada out of the wall to get the deliverable.
00:06:28.360 However, all of this is having an impact on domestic politics in Canada.
00:06:32.000 And I'm going to cut to a little bit later, but he's been very critical over the past few days
00:06:37.920 that what Trump's doing is just artificially raising prices for American consumers with no real clear thing he wants from Canada.
00:06:44.900 Because even as somebody who understood that we have poor border security and poor defense spending in this country,
00:06:51.660 even Trudeau did commit to actually starting to spend it and has started demonstrating that we are putting money towards the border.
00:06:58.100 That is where it's becoming a little bit irrational, where for some reason they're getting into trade fights with Canada over very vague issues.
00:07:05.740 Like, yes, we do tariff certain products.
00:07:07.860 And if the Americans said, please stop tariffing American dairy, please stop tariffing American cheese, American softwood and all that stuff,
00:07:13.760 then we would be having a conversation.
00:07:15.640 But that's not what's going on.
00:07:16.880 So both sides are just talking past each other.
00:07:19.400 But then we also have the ridiculous farce of Canadian politicians and premiers thinking they can stand up to the Americans.
00:07:25.520 And then immediately caving every five seconds because it turns out Canada's economy is weak,
00:07:31.960 not because of the U.S., those dirty Americans, but because we have high taxes and high regulations. 0.99
00:07:38.820 That's why Doug Ford, in less than 24 hours, had to cave to Donald Trump on the 25% electricity tariffs that Doug Ford was going to put on the Americans for importing Ontario electricity.
00:07:51.820 It didn't work out because Ontario is deeply indebted and the taxes are too high.
00:07:57.960 So trying to get into a trade conflict with the U.S. means that Ontario goes bankrupt first every time and probably goes bankrupt first months in advance of the Americans going bankrupt, if not years.
00:08:08.260 But here is Ben Shapiro later on in that clip giving a little bit more of the context that, you know, what you really want,
00:08:14.640 if you are a true conservative in America, you should want a true conservative running Canada.
00:08:19.200 It has nothing to do with America gobbling up Canada.
00:08:22.840 ...of the year, Pierre Polyev was ahead 20 points in the election polls.
00:08:27.560 Today, he is tied with the Liberals.
00:08:30.320 So are you going to get more from Canada with Pierre Polyev as the Prime Minister than you're going to get from Marc Conrad?
00:08:36.440 The answer is yes.
00:08:38.180 It turns out that politics has a lot of downstream effect.
00:08:40.500 And yeah, so nowhere in this clip does he in any way endorse tariffs?
00:08:47.360 Does he endorse hurting Canada?
00:08:49.560 In fact, Ben Shapiro wants Canada to be more self-sufficient in the sense that not be a government that is like,
00:08:58.500 like in the sense that it's like a free market economy that isn't reliant on subsidies and we can trade freely between the two countries and strengthen each other.
00:09:06.320 That is literally his position.
00:09:08.440 And Marc Carney is like wanting the opposite of that or the Liberals basically opposing what Ben Shapiro is saying is basically saying that they want less free trade and they want more autarky.
00:09:18.320 By the way, I need to cut to this.
00:09:20.400 Thank you for the pleb reporter for posting this.
00:09:23.680 But he showed that when Marc Carney was at this ridiculous event in a steel mill, by the way, guys, political optics, have him stand outside the steel mill, maybe have him wear a helmet without the overalls, never make a guy look like this.
00:09:38.900 This reminds me of what was his name, Dukakis running in the 1988 U.S. presidential election, wearing that stupid helmet while driving around in the tank.
00:09:50.880 All of you probably over the ages of 45 will know what I'm talking about.
00:09:55.280 I just happen to know it because I'm 25 going on 86.
00:09:58.420 But he looks like this and he has this like little talk he's doing about trying to defend our steel manufacturers and producers from the Americans.
00:10:07.440 It's three minutes and 29 seconds.
00:10:09.620 I'm not sure if it was specifically the pleb who came up with this or he just reposted it.
00:10:14.380 But out of this three minute and 29 second clip, there are 42 seconds of him just saying ah and not knowing what to say.
00:10:28.420 I'm not sure what's causing here.
00:10:37.020 This guy needs a teleprompter to survive.
00:10:59.040 We don't need to sit through all 42 seconds of that.
00:11:01.800 But goodness, the man is worse off teleprompter than Barack Obama was.
00:11:06.640 He has no ability to actually speak from the heart.
00:11:10.040 Maybe he doesn't have a heart or a soul.
00:11:12.080 Who knows?
00:11:12.860 But this is also why I'm pretty confident that on a debate stage he would get bulldozed by Pierre Polyev and not in the sense that Pierre Polyev is going to talk over him and outmuscle him and basically be a jerk or something like that.
00:11:24.820 I've never perceived that as Pierre Polyev's style as much as the liberals in the media like to pretend he's a bully.
00:11:30.080 He is insistent on points and we've already seen Polyev and Carney debate in parliamentary committees.
00:11:37.140 Carney is just an equivocating fool.
00:11:39.740 He never has actually much of a point.
00:11:42.500 He just basically always wants to change subjects every time something gets uncomfortable.
00:11:46.520 Polyev can actually stand and fight. 0.57
00:11:48.000 This guy can't even get through a very easy press conference where he's just basically saying we support Canadian steel workers and the industry and we're going to use some of our retaliatory tariffs to prop up the steel industry.
00:12:00.880 In fact, also, we shouldn't be putting on retaliatory tariffs at all.
00:12:08.920 And that's not because I lack patriotism and I want Canada to get enveloped by the Americans. 0.84
00:12:13.560 It's that we will beat the Americans by just lowering our taxes and regulations. 0.79
00:12:17.720 That's all.
00:12:18.500 That's all we need to do to win.
00:12:20.580 And when he's leaving this steel plant event, it is, again, also telling that the man is taking no questions.
00:12:27.620 He does his scripted event and then he walks away.
00:12:30.880 It's because he's got absolutely nothing to say.
00:12:45.140 He is not fast on his feet.
00:12:47.300 And his entire leadership campaign, banning people like me from his events, banning other independent media, is very telling at his current position.
00:12:55.540 By the way, this is something I want to talk about quickly before I end this video off.
00:12:59.820 Maybe I'll talk about one other thing, too.
00:13:02.320 Frank Graves and ECOS are still bad pollsters.
00:13:05.560 And I need to quickly make fun of this because there are actually people who believe these numbers.
00:13:11.580 Look at this unbranded.
00:13:12.660 Hot off the press from ECOS.
00:13:13.980 Polly has officially tanked. 0.98
00:13:15.900 Carney is ascendant.
00:13:17.220 And this poll had the liberals at 47% and the conservatives at, like, 32% or at 48% and 31.5%.
00:13:27.560 No.
00:13:28.940 Guys, Frank Graves is clinically insane.
00:13:32.660 If you think any party would be at 47% right now or 48%, you would be insane.
00:13:39.420 Maybe if Trudeau was still around, the conservatives could achieve something like that.
00:13:42.620 But this is a competitive election.
00:13:45.460 I just made a video on innovative research showing that the conservatives are 10 ahead.
00:13:50.780 That doesn't mean every pollster is showing that.
00:13:52.660 But I find innovative and abacus tend to be the most consistent with their numbers.
00:13:56.480 Because, guys, guess how polling tends to work?
00:13:58.800 Unless there is some big, massive shocking issue or scandal, polling goes like this.
00:14:05.960 It goes very slowly.
00:14:07.220 And sometimes if there's a shock, you'll jump up and it'll start coming down again because the shock is over.
00:14:13.200 When the polls go up and then they keep going up and then they keep going up and there's nothing in the news cycle to even suggest that this is how the general public is feeling and we're all moving in one direction because, you know, we don't like the conservatives now for some reason.
00:14:28.740 There's nothing that anti-conservative in the public right now.
00:14:33.080 That's just not how things move.
00:14:34.380 Here's a great example from Poll in Canada.
00:14:36.240 They posted this.
00:14:37.780 I think they believe the polls.
00:14:39.680 But look, a poll in Canada says Atlantic Canada, Canada's last four polls.
00:14:44.760 And Innovative is here proving my point.
00:14:47.220 We have Leger that shows the liberals at 56 in Atlantic Canada.
00:14:52.320 The conservatives at 28, the NDP at 10, the Greens at 4, and the PPC at 2.
00:14:57.480 Innovative has the conservatives leading just by one point, 42 to 41.
00:15:02.060 Nano's 57 to 27 for the liberals.
00:15:04.280 Ecos 58 to 29 for the liberals.
00:15:07.900 Yeah, that's not realistic.
00:15:10.040 Again, I don't feel like I need to tell you this is not how polling works.
00:15:14.300 And Innovative Research, back in the day, literally two months ago, every pollster had the conservatives at 52 or 48%.
00:15:22.020 Do I believe that's where the conservatives are now?
00:15:24.480 Definitely not.
00:15:25.420 Trudeau is gone.
00:15:26.280 And many liberals who are completely writing off the next election have returned.
00:15:30.620 So naturally, they've come up a little bit.
00:15:32.760 And some of the more, like, the very liberal conservative supporters who only left because they hated Trudeau, some of them are going back liberal.
00:15:40.960 So things has equalized a bit.
00:15:42.520 So the conservatives have lost about six or seven points in Atlantic Canada, and probably the liberals have gained maybe five or six points.
00:15:49.480 So now they're kind of neck and neck now.
00:15:51.580 That is realistic.
00:15:52.940 Do you think the conservatives went from 52 to 26 in, like, a month?
00:15:58.620 No, that's not how public opinion works.
00:16:02.400 Actually, I want to see if I can find this video because people will sometimes accuse me of, like, why?
00:16:08.920 You're just trying to cherry-pick polls that you like.
00:16:10.620 I'm consistent with which polls I like.
00:16:12.680 I'm even willing to say after Leger had a plus 13 for the conservatives that I will throw that one out and they get to sit in the corner of shame.
00:16:19.340 Because when they show plus three conservatives, then plus 13 conservatives, and then tie, that's not realistic.
00:16:27.160 And now I can't even believe that plus 13.
00:16:29.420 But you have people like Frank Dominic out there pretending that this Ecos poll might be realistic.
00:16:36.420 This is truly the definition of wish casting.
00:16:40.140 There is nothing in reality to make you believe that this is actually realistic.
00:16:45.860 But people are saying, but what if?
00:16:48.280 What if this is how it's going?
00:16:50.260 A new federal poll put Mark Carney's liberals at 48% of the vote to the conservatives 31%.
00:16:54.720 And this poll was actually taken down because the pollster was concerned that it wouldn't be accurate.
00:16:58.220 Yeah, because it's not accurate.
00:17:00.000 Somehow, Frank Graves accidentally released his fever dream polls that he loved so much rather than the ones he just, you know, more gently scuffs to make it look like the liberals have a good trend line.
00:17:11.980 They did not jump 20 points ahead.
00:17:14.120 For perspective, this is the electoral map after Justin Trudeau's 2015 win.
00:17:18.760 He had about 40% of the vote.
00:17:20.340 And this is what the map would look like with the current polling.
00:17:22.800 The NDP would be obliterated, as would the bloc, and the liberals would win 249 seats.
00:17:28.140 This would beat out Brian Mulroney's record with 211 seats.
00:17:31.680 This is probably not going to happen.
00:17:33.200 But this...
00:17:33.700 No, no, no, no, no, no.
00:17:34.880 You can't say...
00:17:36.000 Okay, Frankie, boy.
00:17:37.480 You can't say this probably isn't going to happen.
00:17:40.500 This is not going to happen.
00:17:43.360 Why is the bloc falling apart?
00:17:46.160 Why would they fall apart in your mind, Frank?
00:17:48.240 You can't...
00:17:49.000 And the problem is this guy makes videos on TikTok for, like, teenagers and very young adults who don't know any better when he says...
00:17:56.180 The pollster took it down because this might not be accurate.
00:17:58.700 He's making it sound like, hmm, he's just not confident in this one, but it could be right, but that's only, like, a 10% chance.
00:18:04.000 No, no, no, there is a 0% chance this could be right.
00:18:07.400 There's a lot of people who really like Paliyev, regardless of what the liberals are doing.
00:18:11.360 There are some people who genuinely like Mark Carney.
00:18:14.180 I have not met any of them, but I've been assured that people like him.
00:18:18.640 But even as bad as Jagmeet Singh is a leader, he's not getting one seat.
00:18:23.160 You think Leah Gasson's going to lose? 0.99
00:18:24.680 Do you think Nikki Ashton's going to lose?
00:18:26.620 No.
00:18:27.300 There are very safe NDP seats where they could run an orange as their candidate and they would win just because of color recognition alone.
00:18:34.820 That's the problem.
00:18:36.020 But you have these guys on TikTok who, again, would attack me for saying that I like abacus and innovative research better than the other pollsters, and I have good reason to.
00:18:46.400 But they'll fart out this kind of a video and be like, well, there's a chance this could happen.
00:18:51.420 Really?
00:18:51.720 There's a chance the NDP is going to get zero, the Greens will get one, and the Block will get one?
00:18:56.120 No.
00:18:56.680 Oh, yeah, the liberals are going to get their best result ever.
00:19:00.720 Totally.
00:19:01.640 This is insane.
00:19:02.300 Other pollsters like Nanos put the liberals and the conservatives tied at both, like, 37%.
00:19:06.360 Even in that scenario, it would still end up being a liberal majority.
00:19:09.440 That's mainly because the conservative vote is so concentrated in places like Alberta, where the liberal vote is spread out across British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario.
00:19:16.220 And specifically in Quebec and Ontario, with the collapse of the NDP, the liberals would be picking up a ton of seats.
00:19:21.800 And if the liberals go a few points...
00:19:22.960 The problem is the NDP would have to collapse under 10% of the vote to actually pick up, to actually truly give all their seats over.
00:19:31.800 Because there are seats where the NDP will win 60% of the vote.
00:19:37.560 That's the problem.
00:19:38.200 How hard do you have to collapse to lose a seat that you used to win with 60%?
00:19:43.180 That is like Nicky Ashton's seat and a lot of the Winnipeg seats.
00:19:46.580 That's just not realistic.
00:19:47.860 The points higher, they start taking seats from the Block as well.
00:19:50.740 What do you think the results of the next election are going to be for the liberals and the conservatives?
00:19:53.160 I think we're going to see about 43% for the liberals and 35% for the conservatives.
00:19:57.060 That's because, Frank, you're delusional.
00:19:59.360 That's because you shouldn't be teaching in the province of Ontario, because you don't know what you're talking about on every issue I've seen you talk about.
00:20:07.540 No, 43% for the liberals and 35% for the conservatives.
00:20:12.680 So the conservatives, with Pierre Polyev at the helm, would, in your mind, do 1% better than O'Toole, even without the PPC being any competition this time, because they're so poorly managed.
00:20:27.040 And they don't have COVID to buoy their numbers.
00:20:30.100 And, again, Polyev hasn't really done anything that would embarrass himself and push voters towards a more right party.
00:20:37.660 And he's only going to get 35%.
00:20:39.100 But the liberals, who got 40% of the vote in 2015, I believe that that was what they got, 2015 Canadian election.
00:20:49.860 I just want to check my numbers here, guys.
00:20:51.800 So Justin Trudeau, he didn't even get 40%.
00:20:53.900 He got 39.47% of the vote in 2015, but he won a majority since the conservatives only got 31.9%, and that ended up squeezing them out a lot of the seats.
00:21:04.440 So I just checked that.
00:21:05.140 So the liberals under Mark Carney, after 10 years of a lot of voter fatigue, plaguing the liberals in the 2019 and 2021 elections, even when they were running against someone as weak as O'Toole, they still couldn't pull out a majority because people are getting sick of them.
00:21:20.080 And now, with a bad economy, bad crime rate, bad drug issues, bad national security policy, rampant anti-Semitism, rampant mass immigration, bringing in, like, flat-out tribal warfare in certain parts of the country, now the liberals are going to achieve one of their best results ever.
00:21:40.820 No, they're not.
00:21:42.980 Could the liberals win?
00:21:45.140 Sure, that's possible.
00:21:47.460 Is it realistic?
00:21:48.540 Not really, unless you're considering the conservatives only getting a minority a win.
00:21:53.120 Maybe then I give you, like, 70% shot the conservatives get a majority, 20% they get a minority, and, like, I give you an off 10% chance the liberals achieve some sort of a government.
00:22:03.780 You know, because anything can happen on the campaign trail.
00:22:06.840 The conservatives aren't exactly 50 points ahead.
00:22:09.300 So, yeah, things could tighten up, and the way that the votes ring out in different regions could end up giving the liberals a minority.
00:22:15.140 But, no, I hate this kind of commentary where somebody pulls up a poll.
00:22:19.540 I am not a polling analyst, like, a polling expert.
00:22:23.080 That is Chris from the Great Canadian Bagel podcast, people like Brian Breguet, people like Sheree Attiste.
00:22:28.780 Those guys are very good with polling.
00:22:30.200 By the way, he even cited Sheree Attiste's model for what that ECOS poll would result in.
00:22:35.520 Sheree Attiste has been mocking relentlessly Frank Graves and ECOS because of how bad their polling is.
00:22:41.140 And, by the way, I'm going to have to tap the sign, guys.
00:22:44.380 This is an actual post by Frank Graves saying,
00:22:47.540 A real conservative option is a healthy counterbalance and a healthy democracy.
00:22:51.720 Fear Polyev is an acolyte of authoritarian populism.
00:22:54.920 This is never healthy.
00:22:56.380 You are on notice.
00:22:57.280 Going to make sure you are never going to leave my country.
00:23:00.080 I don't make idle threats.
00:23:01.680 In which the threat seemed somewhat idle because he then deleted that post.
00:23:05.160 But, yeah, Frank Graves is not credible.
00:23:07.080 In fact, he left the polling industry in 2021.
00:23:10.460 And since then, he has just been an internet troll trying to hurt conservatives.
00:23:14.380 His 2021 result, he pretends like he was somewhat close to the actual overall result.
00:23:21.300 Honestly, Noah, this video is going to turn into me dunking on Frank Graves here.
00:23:25.500 Again, I'm not a polling expert.
00:23:27.580 But I am going to believe my lying eyes and ears.
00:23:31.300 And when I see him get a massive result off, I'm going to call it out.
00:23:35.220 So, in 2021, somehow this bald man still gets the most of the popular vote, Aaron O'Toole.
00:23:41.180 He gets 33.7.
00:23:42.780 Trudeau gets 32.62.
00:23:45.060 And, you know, blocks 7.64.
00:23:47.720 The NDP gets 15.9 or no, 17.82.
00:23:52.300 Yeah, and whatnot, whatnot.
00:23:53.560 I want to go to the polls down here.
00:23:56.180 I want to look at the last ECOS poll and show you that, no, they are not right.
00:24:00.920 So, this is the last ECOS poll.
00:24:02.560 He says 32.6% liberal.
00:24:06.640 And for the longest time, Frank Graves has hung his hat on the fact that he was technically right, that the liberals would get 32.6.
00:24:16.120 The problem is, he got the conservatives wrong by over six points.
00:24:21.380 He got the NDP a little bit off.
00:24:23.320 That one was a bit more clear.
00:24:24.400 But the thing is that he got the Greens off by 1.6.
00:24:28.680 Not as bad.
00:24:29.480 And he got the PPC massively off.
00:24:31.220 He thought they were going to get 9.9% of the vote.
00:24:34.220 This is not a good poll.
00:24:36.120 You cannot...
00:24:37.060 Dude, if you guessed...
00:24:38.680 If I got you to just guess what all of the five biggest parties were going to get, especially the conservatives and liberals, because it tends to be pretty easy to predict which one, like where each of the parties are at, if you just vaguely look at other polls and the attitude of the country.
00:24:54.880 If you just pull numbers out of your head, you could probably guess a few of them right.
00:25:00.720 Frank Graves is saying that because he guessed the liberals' poll number right, that means their election result right.
00:25:06.960 That means he's a good pollster.
00:25:08.740 No, Frank is a terrible pollster.
00:25:11.600 Getting the liberals right and the conservatives off by more than 6% is the entire election.
00:25:16.440 If Frank Graves' poll was right, the PPC would have won some seats, the liberals would have a massive majority, and the conservatives would have fallen below, like, 70 seats.
00:25:25.980 No, he's a bad pollster.
00:25:28.000 Just saying.
00:25:29.280 Anyways.
00:25:30.560 So, that is it for me today here, guys.
00:25:33.860 Make sure to subscribe to the channel.
00:25:35.940 Like the video.
00:25:36.980 Share it with your friends, especially if your friends are conservatives with anxiety that Mark Carney could win.
00:25:42.160 I feel like I'm a calming voice of reason that no, common sense usually still prevails at the end of the day.
00:25:49.380 When conservatives lose elections, there's usually a better reason than Donald Trump said something about tariffs and everyone set their hair on fire.
00:25:56.800 I think at the end of the day, domestic issues are king, and most of the people are going to vote on the crime on their street, or if they can actually afford a home, or how high their taxes are, and other stuff like that.
00:26:08.820 So, anyways.
00:26:09.940 That's it for me, guys.
00:26:11.460 See you later.
00:26:12.160 See you later.