In this segment, I talk about what the Liberals are going to run on in the next federal election and why I don't think it's going to be much different than what they have been running on since Justin Trudeau was elected Prime Minister in 2015.
00:00:00.080Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. In my past videos, I've talked about many of the scandals as well as weaknesses that Mark Carney has as a politician and why I suspect that he will make for a very weak Liberal Party leader.
00:00:14.360And I've also talked about the Polic weakness that I think the Liberals still have with Mark Carney as leader, both regionally and with certain demographics.
00:00:23.180Today, what I want to talk about, now that Mark Carney is the Liberal leader and soon to be Prime Minister, what the Liberals are actually going to run on in the next federal election.
00:00:33.680Because I think right now in Liberal HQ, they think that they have set themselves up to be able to win the next federal election.
00:00:41.700Again, despite Mark Carney's lack of charisma, he's an extremely boring person with a lot of scandals, as well as their polling still being pretty weak.
00:00:49.720They think that they're set up, but I guarantee in the next couple of days, it's going to set in crap.
00:00:56.180We don't actually have anything to run on. And that's my opinion on how this next federal race is going to go.
00:01:02.620The Liberals have a lot of attack lines that they've been trying to use on Pierre Polyev and the Americans, but you actually still have to run on something.
00:01:11.540I keep hearing that the federal election could be called next week, although we've been hearing that for two years.
00:01:17.380Oh, it's right around the corner. Everyone's being told to print up your literature and get your signs ready because there's about to be a federal election and then it never happens.
00:01:26.500And I'm skeptical that it would happen next week because Mark Carney hasn't done anything yet.
00:01:32.140Does he really want to be the guy introducing himself as Prime Minister only on the campaign trail?
00:01:38.480Or is he going to want at least a couple of months to get people kind of comfortable with the idea he's Prime Minister before pulling the trigger?
00:01:46.800Because if I'm a Liberal advisor, I would say, Mark, you've got to have at least one or two policy achievements before you trigger the next election.
00:01:55.960A main platform plank of his, in fact, was that he was going to get rid of the carbon tax.
00:02:02.080He still supports the carbon tax and it's kind of a farce that he's getting rid of it.
00:02:05.860Really, you just reorganize how it's paid for, you know, move it from a consumer carbon tax to being an industrial carbon tax in which it would still have the exact same effect on prices and the economy in general.
00:02:31.000Honestly, probably one of the best Premiers since Ralph Klein in the country because the guy actually balanced a budget in the Maritimes, which is impressive, and he had set himself up to cut taxes.
00:02:40.620But instead of cutting taxes and running on the fact he cut taxes, instead Blaine Higgs ran on the fact that he will cut taxes if he wins again.
00:02:49.520And it's only like a 2% HST cut in which I say, who cares?
00:03:23.580They don't have anything to actually run on in terms of a policy achievement.
00:03:28.200And it just seems like a slap in the face to Canadians then to swap out Trudeau with Carney and then trigger an election and say, vote for this guy.
00:03:38.020But anyways, now I want to get into what I think the actual liberal strategy is right now.
00:03:44.060And, you know, spoiler alert, I am a conservative, but I don't think it's going to work because nobody votes for the person who's just attacking other people.
00:03:54.140Attacks work, but you have to follow up and attack with a proper alternative.
00:04:08.880But anyways, before I get into this next segment, guys, remember to like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, do all that wonderful stuff.
00:04:16.060And now let's get into the latest attack where they're trying to say that pure Polyev is an evil, evil, bad man because he is associated in some vague way with Donald Trump, despite the fact that Donald Trump has said Polyev is not mega and has attacked him before.
00:04:40.300And it says, pure Polyev won't stand up to Donald Trump and Trump's friends know it.
00:04:45.800The only Mark, only Mark Carney will stand against Donald Trump.
00:04:48.700And by the way, Ben Shapiro is not Donald Trump's friend.
00:04:51.460It's not because they hate each other, but not everyone who's an American political commentary is Trump's friend.
00:04:56.420They had to clip this deeply out of context in order to make it seem like pure Polyev is saying that, or sorry, that Ben Shapiro is saying that pure Polyev will give Trump Canada or whatever.
00:05:08.420Are you going to get more from Canada with Pierre Polyev as the prime minister than you're going to get from Mark Carney?
00:05:16.760Now, this is how thin the liberals' attack line on Pierre Polyev has gotten.
00:05:22.520It's gone past, they've had to go a little bit further past just saying Trump's name and Polyev's name and showing that they sometimes use extremely common words together,
00:05:32.180as if, like, you know, pure Polyev can say fake news and Trump can say fake news and that, for some reason, associates the two, like, deeply.
00:05:40.660But that seven-second clip made it sound like Ben Shapiro is saying that Trump can extract more gains out of pure Polyev.
00:05:50.540He's going to sell them Manitoba just for the fun of it.
00:05:53.900That's obviously not what was being said.
00:05:55.640What Ben Shapiro was saying is basically if you want a better partner in NATO to work for, a better partner on border security and a better partner when it comes to free trade, you'll want pure Polyev.
00:06:07.460In fact, this was a clip that if you actually watch the full version, at the very start of that segment where Shapiro was talking about Canada,
00:06:17.840he immediately starts talking about why it's foolish that Donald Trump is pursuing tariffs without any clear end goal.
00:06:23.460Again, if there's a deliverable, great.
00:06:26.080And force Canada out of the wall to get the deliverable.
00:06:28.360However, all of this is having an impact on domestic politics in Canada.
00:06:32.000And I'm going to cut to a little bit later, but he's been very critical over the past few days
00:06:37.920that what Trump's doing is just artificially raising prices for American consumers with no real clear thing he wants from Canada.
00:06:44.900Because even as somebody who understood that we have poor border security and poor defense spending in this country,
00:06:51.660even Trudeau did commit to actually starting to spend it and has started demonstrating that we are putting money towards the border.
00:06:58.100That is where it's becoming a little bit irrational, where for some reason they're getting into trade fights with Canada over very vague issues.
00:07:05.740Like, yes, we do tariff certain products.
00:07:07.860And if the Americans said, please stop tariffing American dairy, please stop tariffing American cheese, American softwood and all that stuff,
00:07:13.760then we would be having a conversation.
00:07:16.880So both sides are just talking past each other.
00:07:19.400But then we also have the ridiculous farce of Canadian politicians and premiers thinking they can stand up to the Americans.
00:07:25.520And then immediately caving every five seconds because it turns out Canada's economy is weak,
00:07:31.960not because of the U.S., those dirty Americans, but because we have high taxes and high regulations.
00:07:38.820That's why Doug Ford, in less than 24 hours, had to cave to Donald Trump on the 25% electricity tariffs that Doug Ford was going to put on the Americans for importing Ontario electricity.
00:07:51.820It didn't work out because Ontario is deeply indebted and the taxes are too high.
00:07:57.960So trying to get into a trade conflict with the U.S. means that Ontario goes bankrupt first every time and probably goes bankrupt first months in advance of the Americans going bankrupt, if not years.
00:08:08.260But here is Ben Shapiro later on in that clip giving a little bit more of the context that, you know, what you really want,
00:08:14.640if you are a true conservative in America, you should want a true conservative running Canada.
00:08:19.200It has nothing to do with America gobbling up Canada.
00:08:22.840...of the year, Pierre Polyev was ahead 20 points in the election polls.
00:08:49.560In fact, Ben Shapiro wants Canada to be more self-sufficient in the sense that not be a government that is like,
00:08:58.500like in the sense that it's like a free market economy that isn't reliant on subsidies and we can trade freely between the two countries and strengthen each other.
00:09:08.440And Marc Carney is like wanting the opposite of that or the Liberals basically opposing what Ben Shapiro is saying is basically saying that they want less free trade and they want more autarky.
00:09:20.400Thank you for the pleb reporter for posting this.
00:09:23.680But he showed that when Marc Carney was at this ridiculous event in a steel mill, by the way, guys, political optics, have him stand outside the steel mill, maybe have him wear a helmet without the overalls, never make a guy look like this.
00:09:38.900This reminds me of what was his name, Dukakis running in the 1988 U.S. presidential election, wearing that stupid helmet while driving around in the tank.
00:09:50.880All of you probably over the ages of 45 will know what I'm talking about.
00:09:55.280I just happen to know it because I'm 25 going on 86.
00:09:58.420But he looks like this and he has this like little talk he's doing about trying to defend our steel manufacturers and producers from the Americans.
00:11:12.860But this is also why I'm pretty confident that on a debate stage he would get bulldozed by Pierre Polyev and not in the sense that Pierre Polyev is going to talk over him and outmuscle him and basically be a jerk or something like that.
00:11:24.820I've never perceived that as Pierre Polyev's style as much as the liberals in the media like to pretend he's a bully.
00:11:30.080He is insistent on points and we've already seen Polyev and Carney debate in parliamentary committees.
00:11:48.000This guy can't even get through a very easy press conference where he's just basically saying we support Canadian steel workers and the industry and we're going to use some of our retaliatory tariffs to prop up the steel industry.
00:12:00.880In fact, also, we shouldn't be putting on retaliatory tariffs at all.
00:12:08.920And that's not because I lack patriotism and I want Canada to get enveloped by the Americans.
00:12:13.560It's that we will beat the Americans by just lowering our taxes and regulations.
00:12:47.300And his entire leadership campaign, banning people like me from his events, banning other independent media, is very telling at his current position.
00:12:55.540By the way, this is something I want to talk about quickly before I end this video off.
00:12:59.820Maybe I'll talk about one other thing, too.
00:13:02.320Frank Graves and ECOS are still bad pollsters.
00:13:05.560And I need to quickly make fun of this because there are actually people who believe these numbers.
00:14:07.220And sometimes if there's a shock, you'll jump up and it'll start coming down again because the shock is over.
00:14:13.200When the polls go up and then they keep going up and then they keep going up and there's nothing in the news cycle to even suggest that this is how the general public is feeling and we're all moving in one direction because, you know, we don't like the conservatives now for some reason.
00:14:28.740There's nothing that anti-conservative in the public right now.
00:15:26.280And many liberals who are completely writing off the next election have returned.
00:15:30.620So naturally, they've come up a little bit.
00:15:32.760And some of the more, like, the very liberal conservative supporters who only left because they hated Trudeau, some of them are going back liberal.
00:15:42.520So the conservatives have lost about six or seven points in Atlantic Canada, and probably the liberals have gained maybe five or six points.
00:15:49.480So now they're kind of neck and neck now.
00:15:52.940Do you think the conservatives went from 52 to 26 in, like, a month?
00:15:58.620No, that's not how public opinion works.
00:16:02.400Actually, I want to see if I can find this video because people will sometimes accuse me of, like, why?
00:16:08.920You're just trying to cherry-pick polls that you like.
00:16:10.620I'm consistent with which polls I like.
00:16:12.680I'm even willing to say after Leger had a plus 13 for the conservatives that I will throw that one out and they get to sit in the corner of shame.
00:16:19.340Because when they show plus three conservatives, then plus 13 conservatives, and then tie, that's not realistic.
00:16:27.160And now I can't even believe that plus 13.
00:16:29.420But you have people like Frank Dominic out there pretending that this Ecos poll might be realistic.
00:16:36.420This is truly the definition of wish casting.
00:16:40.140There is nothing in reality to make you believe that this is actually realistic.
00:17:00.000Somehow, Frank Graves accidentally released his fever dream polls that he loved so much rather than the ones he just, you know, more gently scuffs to make it look like the liberals have a good trend line.
00:18:27.300There are very safe NDP seats where they could run an orange as their candidate and they would win just because of color recognition alone.
00:18:36.020But you have these guys on TikTok who, again, would attack me for saying that I like abacus and innovative research better than the other pollsters, and I have good reason to.
00:18:46.400But they'll fart out this kind of a video and be like, well, there's a chance this could happen.
00:19:02.300Other pollsters like Nanos put the liberals and the conservatives tied at both, like, 37%.
00:19:06.360Even in that scenario, it would still end up being a liberal majority.
00:19:09.440That's mainly because the conservative vote is so concentrated in places like Alberta, where the liberal vote is spread out across British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario.
00:19:16.220And specifically in Quebec and Ontario, with the collapse of the NDP, the liberals would be picking up a ton of seats.
00:19:21.800And if the liberals go a few points...
00:19:22.960The problem is the NDP would have to collapse under 10% of the vote to actually pick up, to actually truly give all their seats over.
00:19:31.800Because there are seats where the NDP will win 60% of the vote.
00:19:59.360That's because you shouldn't be teaching in the province of Ontario, because you don't know what you're talking about on every issue I've seen you talk about.
00:20:07.540No, 43% for the liberals and 35% for the conservatives.
00:20:12.680So the conservatives, with Pierre Polyev at the helm, would, in your mind, do 1% better than O'Toole, even without the PPC being any competition this time, because they're so poorly managed.
00:20:27.040And they don't have COVID to buoy their numbers.
00:20:30.100And, again, Polyev hasn't really done anything that would embarrass himself and push voters towards a more right party.
00:20:39.100But the liberals, who got 40% of the vote in 2015, I believe that that was what they got, 2015 Canadian election.
00:20:49.860I just want to check my numbers here, guys.
00:20:51.800So Justin Trudeau, he didn't even get 40%.
00:20:53.900He got 39.47% of the vote in 2015, but he won a majority since the conservatives only got 31.9%, and that ended up squeezing them out a lot of the seats.
00:21:05.140So the liberals under Mark Carney, after 10 years of a lot of voter fatigue, plaguing the liberals in the 2019 and 2021 elections, even when they were running against someone as weak as O'Toole, they still couldn't pull out a majority because people are getting sick of them.
00:21:20.080And now, with a bad economy, bad crime rate, bad drug issues, bad national security policy, rampant anti-Semitism, rampant mass immigration, bringing in, like, flat-out tribal warfare in certain parts of the country, now the liberals are going to achieve one of their best results ever.
00:21:48.540Not really, unless you're considering the conservatives only getting a minority a win.
00:21:53.120Maybe then I give you, like, 70% shot the conservatives get a majority, 20% they get a minority, and, like, I give you an off 10% chance the liberals achieve some sort of a government.
00:22:03.780You know, because anything can happen on the campaign trail.
00:24:38.680If I got you to just guess what all of the five biggest parties were going to get, especially the conservatives and liberals, because it tends to be pretty easy to predict which one, like where each of the parties are at, if you just vaguely look at other polls and the attitude of the country.
00:24:54.880If you just pull numbers out of your head, you could probably guess a few of them right.
00:25:00.720Frank Graves is saying that because he guessed the liberals' poll number right, that means their election result right.
00:25:11.600Getting the liberals right and the conservatives off by more than 6% is the entire election.
00:25:16.440If Frank Graves' poll was right, the PPC would have won some seats, the liberals would have a massive majority, and the conservatives would have fallen below, like, 70 seats.
00:25:36.980Share it with your friends, especially if your friends are conservatives with anxiety that Mark Carney could win.
00:25:42.160I feel like I'm a calming voice of reason that no, common sense usually still prevails at the end of the day.
00:25:49.380When conservatives lose elections, there's usually a better reason than Donald Trump said something about tariffs and everyone set their hair on fire.
00:25:56.800I think at the end of the day, domestic issues are king, and most of the people are going to vote on the crime on their street, or if they can actually afford a home, or how high their taxes are, and other stuff like that.