The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Media say Poilievre is done - Polls show the opposite!

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I found it rather curious over the past week that since Mark Carney and his liberal government tabled their first budget after 18 months of no budget, we actually haven't had a lot of talk in the media about the budget, let alone positive coverage.

00:00:18.360 We've mostly just been talking about federal conservative party leader Pierre Polyev and his supposed leadership crisis that he's going through right now. Do I think Polyev is in a leadership crisis? No, I do not. Was it a good look to have Chris Dontremont cross the floor and join the liberal government and Matt Gennaro announced that he is going to be resigning in the spring? Obviously, that's not a good look. I think it's mainly not a good look on Chris Dontremont because this really has nothing to do with Pierre Polyev.

00:00:46.860 And if it does, it's probably for an extremely petty issue that Chris had with Pierre. The man's just leaving because he didn't get to become the deputy speaker. And he's like, I guess, felt entitled to that job and he wasn't satisfied being the deputy whip of the conservative party. And so he left. He had just gotten over criticizing how much the liberals are spending like two weeks before he left. So obviously, this isn't ideological unless he was lying about his positions before. But let's get back to the real issue at hand.

00:01:15.020 The media does not want to talk about the budget. It's bad. It's not going to be winning Mark Carney a lot of support. In fact, it will be starting to lose him support both on the left flank of his party and the right flank. The NDP, the bloc hate it. Many conservative party voters hate it who end up giving a vote to the liberals in this last election because they wanted to stop Trump.

00:01:34.940 They will also see this as another Justin Trudeau budget. So what better thing to talk about than whatever is going on with Pierre Polyev and a ginned up leadership crisis.

00:01:44.760 Now, we actually have not had anyone else cross the floor. We kept hearing speculation that any moment now, more conservatives are going to be following behind Chris D'Entremont and joining the liberal party.

00:01:56.600 And again, there was speculation that Matt Gennaro was somebody who was thinking about crossing and then just ultimately decided to fully resign.

00:02:05.520 But he's also made it clear he's still voting against the liberal budget. He's still opposing the liberal government.

00:02:10.820 So I've always found that story a little bit dubious. Like, what do they do? Like, threaten his family? You better not cross.

00:02:16.540 OK, you can resign, but you better not cross or I'm going to do vague some things to you.

00:02:22.380 But I want to go through some of these headlines that the media is putting up.

00:02:25.680 And then I want to go over some polling that demonstrates, no, Pierre Polyev is not unpopular because this is the other narrative they are trying to spin out of the situation, 0.86

00:02:34.560 is that it demonstrates that the Canadians don't like Pierre Polyev because Chris D'Entremont left because Chris is so stupid that he thinks that he's going to lose the next election as a conservative because the liberals got within 1% of him.

00:02:49.420 Yeah, they got within 1% in their best showing ever in that riding in a result they're going to have a very difficult time recreating, if not improving on, because the NDP is not going to be dead next time. 0.68

00:03:02.440 And many people who voted for Carney to stop Trump are naturally going to either stop voting liberal or they're going to go back to voting for the conservatives.

00:03:09.220 But here are the current headlines that we have spinning out around the budget.

00:03:15.660 Nothing about the budget.

00:03:17.060 We have how budget week turned into a nightmare for conservatives.

00:03:20.900 Panda's National Observer says,

00:03:22.500 Pierre Polyev's goose is cooked.

00:03:24.480 Politico, a deflection, a resignation and budget fight inside Carney's pivotal week.

00:03:30.280 Bad week for the conservatives puts Pierre Polyev on the defensive.

00:03:33.900 Pierre Polyev does better than Doug Ford and other possible leaders against Mark Carney.

00:03:37.440 That's the poll we are going to be talking about, but I'm wanting to give you the grand scope of what's going on here.

00:03:42.420 The conservative party's problem is bigger than Polyev's opinion.

00:03:46.840 The threat of deflection that could puncture Polyev's swagger.

00:03:51.240 What about the budget?

00:03:52.860 You know that $78 billion deficit we have that includes $55 billion in it that only goes to debt servicing?

00:04:01.660 We're not talking about this.

00:04:03.420 Like, I know the liberals are trying to pretend like this is a great thing.

00:04:05.860 Oh, look, we have cost-saving measures in the budget.

00:04:08.640 I don't care about you reducing some staff in Ottawa-Gatineau if, at the same time, we're increasing spending far more on the other side of the ledger.

00:04:20.140 Yes, we have found cost savings here, but if you save a billion here, but then you increase $5 billion there, I don't think you actually saved money.

00:04:29.020 I think you just reorganize the waste.

00:04:31.300 Many of these people losing their jobs probably aren't going to lose their jobs.

00:04:34.220 They're just going to be transferred to the new departments that have more money in them.

00:04:39.020 Do you think that the major projects office didn't end up onboarding a bunch of new staff members?

00:04:43.520 They're not just going to fire 15% of these staff.

00:04:46.800 You know, like I would.

00:04:47.720 There's way too many employees in the federal government, but the liberals rely heavily on having basically public sector employees vote for them.

00:04:57.280 They're never going to be heavily reducing the size of the public sector.

00:05:01.180 They may reorganize it.

00:05:02.660 They may move those public sector jobs outside of Ottawa, outside of Gatineau, but they're still going to be there.

00:05:09.180 You don't spend another $40 billion on a green energy grid program without hiring a bunch of consultants and a bunch of other staff members in order to manage the project.

00:05:20.980 But anyways, now let's move on to some other stuff.

00:05:25.080 I just want to actually highlight this one.

00:05:26.960 I want to highlight this one video of the liberals trying to basically make out their economic performance as very good.

00:05:33.580 We have Evan Solomon speaking here, who is currently the minister of AI, I believe, came and talked to you about how many jobs that we've created in the past year.

00:05:42.300 Here is something to applaud about.

00:05:44.520 We created 67,000 new jobs last month.

00:05:49.500 That's right.

00:05:50.600 Mr. Speaker, this is about building an affordable nation for a nation of builders.

00:05:57.120 This budget does just that.

00:05:59.420 We are building affordable housing for young people.

00:06:02.440 We are creating 100,000 new summer jobs.

00:06:06.080 And, Mr. Speaker, we are investing in the tech sector.

00:06:09.660 800,000 workers, fastest growing job sector in the economy, many for young people.

00:06:15.360 I hope the conservatives, and many of them do, support this budget.

00:06:21.600 You think Solomon would be less corny as a presenter in the House of Commons,

00:06:30.700 considering that he used to be a literal TV personality.

00:06:34.020 That was a bit over the top.

00:06:35.540 And this doesn't really have to do with the current subject of Polyop, because I want to get to the poll in a little bit here.

00:06:41.300 But the reason I talked about that clip is just to demonstrate just how thin the actual arguments in favor of the budget are,

00:06:48.020 or just in favor of their economic performance in general.

00:06:50.180 So I just put this into Grok, because Grok's a good resource for creating data tables.

00:06:55.540 He's talking about how they created 67,000 new jobs in October.

00:06:59.140 And that's not wrong.

00:07:00.000 They created 67,000 new jobs.

00:07:02.300 Fair enough.

00:07:03.980 Where are these jobs coming from?

00:07:05.760 Well, this year so far, and I think these are just how many jobs they've created, not on net, though.

00:07:13.720 Net, it's a little bit lower, because obviously you lose jobs at the same time you're gaining jobs.

00:07:18.820 Canada, this year, from actually December of last year to October, has created 229,000 new jobs.

00:07:26.540 I think it's around 170,000 when you take into account those people who have lost their jobs.

00:07:31.160 But look here, in British Columbia, 25,000 jobs created.

00:07:35.580 Manitoba, 5,000.

00:07:37.040 Saskatchewan, 5,000.

00:07:38.020 Ontario, 95,000.

00:07:39.140 Quebec, 15,000.

00:07:40.440 New Brunswick, 6,000.

00:07:41.620 Nova Scotia actually lost 2,000.

00:07:43.520 Prince Edward Red Island, 3,000.

00:07:45.360 Look at this, though.

00:07:46.640 Alberta, 85,000 jobs.

00:07:49.740 Fourth biggest province.

00:07:51.560 Nearly the most jobs created in the country.

00:07:55.540 Ontario is only 10,000 more than Alberta.

00:07:57.700 And Ontario, as you all know, as, you know, big nerds like myself, I'm just kidding, because it's just the most obvious fact on the planet.

00:08:05.880 Like, Ontario, the biggest province, only creates 10,000 more jobs than Alberta.

00:08:10.700 Alberta's job growth rate is 3.3%, and the current job creation, the gain across the entire country, is only about 1%.

00:08:21.960 It is being disproportionately carried by Alberta, meaning it is being disproportionately carried by the economy that Danielle Smith is making.

00:08:31.820 And also, many of the jobs that are being created in Ontario are what we call subsidy jobs.

00:08:37.800 The government subsidizes an industry.

00:08:40.120 They give massive grants.

00:08:41.280 They give massive tax breaks to a specific industry that nobody else is getting.

00:08:44.920 And that industry obviously has to then create jobs in order to play ball with the government and get this money.

00:08:52.520 I'm not impressed that the Ontario auto sector and some of the other steel and aluminum, like, or steel plants and whatnot, are gaining jobs.

00:09:02.620 They're not efficient jobs.

00:09:04.040 We're just giving these companies millions to billions of dollars, and then they agree to hire, like, 500 more people or whatever, and we do this across the entire sector.

00:09:13.320 You can't make an economy out of this.

00:09:15.540 Where in Alberta, we don't really do much of that.

00:09:18.360 Yeah, there is green energy subsidies I don't like in Alberta as well.

00:09:22.540 But overall, Alberta creates actual jobs, and Ontario and other provinces create fake jobs.

00:09:30.400 So, yeah, just basically demonstrating how easily I can poke a hole in this argument that somehow, like, oh, goodness, look how great the economy is doing.

00:09:39.320 Yes, in Alberta, if you took Alberta out of the equation, everything looks pretty mediocre, I'm going to be honest here.

00:09:48.100 So now I'm just going to go look up David Colletto's numbers that he's just put out recently for who would do well as the conservative leader.

00:09:56.940 And this kind of demonstrates just how dumb the media's narrative is right now, because you'd suspect that Polyev, and these numbers were collected in the midst of the unpopularity, supposedly, of Polyev.

00:10:13.760 He is still doing quite well.

00:10:15.720 And when I say still doing quite well, I mean he is literally beating Mark Carney in the next election.

00:10:22.220 Look, this is a hypothetical ballot poll that Abacus Data did.

00:10:27.400 It's a bit small, so maybe I will drag over the whiteboard in a second here.

00:10:33.820 But we have a chart here that shows how different conservative figures, different conservative politicians, you know, past prime ministers, Ontario's premier Doug Ford, would do against Mark Carney's liberals.

00:10:48.800 We're going to do this on the fly, people.

00:10:51.160 Hopefully you don't mind it.

00:10:52.220 But let's just go over the net numbers on how each of these figures would be doing.

00:11:01.440 I can just grab out some pen here or whatever.

00:11:06.460 Just need three colors for the names and whatnot.

00:11:10.040 So we have Kir Polyev up here.

00:11:14.740 Kir Polyev is currently, right now, up against the liberals.

00:11:19.520 He is a plus two.

00:11:22.680 With him at the helm of the conservative party, the conservatives are leading the liberals by plus two.

00:11:29.520 That sounds pretty good to me, especially because the conservative vote is so efficient these days.

00:11:34.740 Beating the liberals by two points nationally in the popular vote would actually probably net the conservatives upwards of like 175 seats or so.

00:11:44.380 Let's now go down to Doug Ford, who himself is barely conservative in any way, shape, or form.

00:11:52.640 I just consider him a liberal or a progressive at this point.

00:11:55.940 He runs the PC Party of Ontario, but it really should just rename itself the Progressive Party.

00:12:00.500 Doug Ford, he would be a plus three for the liberals if he became the leader of the conservative party.

00:12:11.620 Let's go down to someone a little bit more positive.

00:12:15.040 We have Stephen Harper here.

00:12:19.040 Stephen Harper would actually be worse than Doug Ford, but more positive figure.

00:12:25.280 We have the liberals beating Stephen Harper by five points.

00:12:30.540 Let's go down to Jason Kenney, the former Premier of Alberta and former Immigration Minister federally.

00:12:38.140 He would lose to the liberals plus eight points.

00:12:42.920 Go down a little bit further.

00:12:45.020 We have Caroline Mulroney, a more moderate conservative in Doug Ford's government of Ontario.

00:12:53.260 She would lose by plus seven to Mark Carney's liberal government.

00:13:01.060 We go to Michelle Rempel-Garner.

00:13:05.620 We all write down the whole thing to be respectful.

00:13:08.080 M-R-G. 1.00

00:13:09.620 Michelle Rempel-Garner would lose by plus 11 points to the conservatives.

00:13:16.480 I feel like I have made my point clear here.

00:13:19.080 You are not going to find someone more popular right now than Pierre Polyev.

00:13:23.540 Now, you could say because the way the question was asked, you are going to have conservatives reflexively saying, yes, no, I wouldn't vote conservative if Pierre Polyev isn't the leader.

00:13:32.280 And you could say, well, some of these people haven't been leader, so they don't get to make the case for why they should be in government instead of the liberals.

00:13:39.360 But still, if anything, this entire poll question, and I like advocacy data, they do good work, but this whole poll question could end up having liberals say, oh, it's going to be Jason Kenney?

00:13:50.980 Oh, I'd vote for Jason Kenney because that Pierre Polyev guy is so bad.

00:13:54.820 A question like this sometimes incentivizes people to say, oh, of course I'd vote conservative if it wasn't Pierre Polyev.

00:14:01.900 But that's not what's happening here. Polyev, when you stack him up against other names, is still doing very well.

00:14:09.200 This isn't somewhat good. This is very good. Being up two points on the liberals on election day would be fantastic.

00:14:17.040 Doug Ford, he's probably only at a plus three because, yeah, you get some more older liberal PC type voters who like Doug Ford.

00:14:26.380 But overall, he only probably does that well because he's a big name. Stephen Harper does worse. Jason Kenney does worse.

00:14:32.340 Caroline Mulroney does worse. Michelle Rempel-Garner does worse. And we have more names on here.

00:14:37.880 Tim Houston would get destroyed by 10 points. We have Mark Mulroney, who would get destroyed by 9 points.

00:14:43.140 Jamil Giovanni, and I like Jamil Giovanni, but he's not enough of a known quantity at this point.

00:14:47.860 He would lose by 13 points. Melissa Lansman apparently would lose by 17 points. 0.96

00:14:53.540 So, yeah, this is not too bad. Oh, Polyev is unpopular. He's in a leadership crisis. No, no, he is not.

00:15:03.300 This is a stupid talking point. Oh, he lost Chris D'Entremont. He's lost the moderate vote. 1.00

00:15:09.480 Matt Gennaro is leaving. He has lost the moderate vote.

00:15:12.460 Well, apparently he doesn't need it because he's still leading Mark Carney right now because going back to this chart, we can just write down the current support levels we see in this poll, including the undecideds.

00:15:25.660 I'll see if I can do this in such a way where you can kind of see it.

00:15:28.840 Right now, this poll would have it that with Polyev at the helm, conservatives would have 38% of the vote.

00:15:36.880 The liberals would, as the, you know, naturally because the conservatives are leading by two, they would be at 36% of the vote.

00:15:45.600 And we then also have the NDP. Let's grab orange just for the consistency of it.

00:15:55.200 NDP would be at 7. We then have the Block Quebecois at 5.

00:16:02.360 And basically the rest doesn't matter. Another party is in purple here and it's at 4%, which is probably 3% green and 1% PPC.

00:16:12.760 And here, though, I want to write this down because it's important.

00:16:15.720 We also have undecideds at 10% and undecideds will tend to split the way that the voter breakdown is already showing.

00:16:24.940 So what you're probably going to have happen is in, with 10% of the vote there, you'd have the NDP probably shoot up another one.

00:16:31.760 You'd probably have the conservatives go up another three and a half.

00:16:34.260 The liberals go up another two. The Block grab one or two.

00:16:37.260 And then maybe a Green Party and the PPC gain another half a point between each other.

00:16:42.440 But this is currently a very healthy outlook for the conservatives.

00:16:47.140 And there's a lot of growth potential here because, right now, the liberals are going to have to actually market their budget.

00:16:55.840 They can distract. The media can pretend the budget doesn't matter right now because we're talking about peer poly of.

00:17:01.320 But eventually, the liberals are going to have to justify why the economic performance of the country is not living up to their massive deficits.

00:17:08.960 Why a lot of other issues have not actually been significantly resolved since they got into office.

00:17:14.780 Their new approach on crime is really not going to do anything.

00:17:18.700 They put up a law that is going to very minorly make it more difficult to get out on bail.

00:17:24.320 If you strangled a domestic partner, you will not be granted bail.

00:17:28.800 Okay, that applies to, like, no crimes.

00:17:31.640 Is it serious? Should those people be held on bail? Yes.

00:17:35.160 But you know what? A lot of people should be held on bail.

00:17:37.760 Repeat offenders, repeat shoplifters.

00:17:40.060 And the thing is, yes, the laws that they're passing give a little bit more ability.

00:17:44.780 For prosecutors to make sure that these people are held in prison.

00:17:48.560 But the thing is that they have not wiped out things like the Gladju principle or Bill C-75 that make it that same-day automatic release is the standard.

00:17:56.940 Unless prosecutors can very quickly, in the nanosecond of time before they release a guy,

00:18:02.380 that why a judge should hear why this person should be held and then they should be kept in prison pretrial.

00:18:07.960 That's just one of many issues.

00:18:09.160 We still have a drug crisis.

00:18:10.940 We still have, again, a lot of industries in Canada that are dying, no matter what the job numbers say.

00:18:17.500 The job numbers look good on a macro level, but when you actually look at the taxpayer money that's going to just subsidize those jobs to keep them,

00:18:25.200 it's not very good at all.

00:18:26.640 In provinces like British Columbia, where they frankly ran out of money and they can't subsidize any more jobs,

00:18:32.460 that's why, even though they're the third biggest province, they only gained 25,000 jobs this year so far,

00:18:37.980 where Alberta has 85,000.

00:18:40.140 Because Alberta is a healthier economy, despite having the absolute gorilla of the federal government sitting on top of it.

00:18:47.180 But anyways, this should be pretty much it for me today, guys.

00:18:50.540 The polling wasn't as in-depth as previous.

00:18:54.480 It was pretty much just these two stats that they had released.

00:18:57.340 But I think that this is all a very good thing to be looking at, to give you a sober-minded view of what is happening.

00:19:04.240 Because the media is trying to, I think, make conservatives flinch.

00:19:08.080 And at the leadership review, say, we have to get rid of Polyev because, well, we're in a crisis and we look bad in front of Canadians. 0.97

00:19:14.480 Guys, these polls, this stuff, because they only polled the different leaders because of the leadership crisis.

00:19:21.920 It's not David Coletto's fault, it's not Abacus Data trying to stir anything up.

00:19:25.340 It's an interesting question raised by the media.

00:19:27.880 If Polyev is in a leadership crisis, who could do a better job?

00:19:31.700 Nobody.

00:19:33.220 Polyev is the only one who is positively polling on Carney.

00:19:37.540 Not close, leading.

00:19:39.220 And he has the wind at his sails to probably gain a lot of this 10% undecided vote.

00:19:47.060 The budget, it's not going to be popular.

00:19:49.660 The thing is, it's going to cause massive inflation. 0.98

00:19:52.680 And the problem with spending so much on projects as your big claim to fame, I guess, your claim to governance, that's a really stupid thing for Mark Carney to do. 0.87

00:20:04.260 He would have been smarter to just give a big tax cut and then make everyone like him right away.

00:20:09.740 By doing infrastructure projects, you are guaranteeing that nobody is going to care for at least four or five years because none of the projects are going to be done right away.

00:20:17.980 He was on a panel recently where he talked about, oh, the pipeline discussion is so boring.

00:20:23.420 Yeah, we will be pursuing a pipeline.

00:20:25.580 Well, at this rate, even if he says yes to a pipeline, it's not going to be done before the next election.

00:20:30.680 It's probably not even going to be started.

00:20:31.820 It's just going to be talk like all of his other major projects.

00:20:35.460 That's the problem, is that it's really difficult to run on talk.

00:20:39.740 And even in that clip of Evan Solomon talking about the job numbers, aside from the job numbers, when he says, we're building homes for young Canadians, we're creating 800,000 new tech sector jobs.

00:20:50.400 No, they're saying that they will attempt to do that.

00:20:53.580 That doesn't actually mean they've done it.

00:20:55.600 They're simply running on intentions.

00:20:57.600 They're simply marketing their budget on intentions, not actual follow-through.

00:21:02.140 And if budget intentions actually equaled follow-through, then Justin Trudeau has already made us all millionaires and we have nothing to worry about, which I believe we can all tell is not true.

00:21:12.880 Anyways, so with that being said, thank you guys for watching the show.

00:21:17.080 Make sure to like, share, subscribe, do all that other fantastic stuff.

00:21:20.740 Thank you for supporting the channel, and I will be back next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - November 08, 2025

Media say Poilievre is done - Polls show the opposite!

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript