Wyatt Claypool explains why the media won't talk about the Liberal Budget, why Chris D'Entremont crossed the floor and joined the Liberal government, and why the Conservative leadership is not as bad as it appears.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I found it rather curious over the past week that since Mark Carney and his liberal government tabled their first budget after 18 months of no budget, we actually haven't had a lot of talk in the media about the budget, let alone positive coverage.
00:00:18.360We've mostly just been talking about federal conservative party leader Pierre Polyev and his supposed leadership crisis that he's going through right now. Do I think Polyev is in a leadership crisis? No, I do not. Was it a good look to have Chris Dontremont cross the floor and join the liberal government and Matt Gennaro announced that he is going to be resigning in the spring? Obviously, that's not a good look. I think it's mainly not a good look on Chris Dontremont because this really has nothing to do with Pierre Polyev.
00:00:46.860And if it does, it's probably for an extremely petty issue that Chris had with Pierre. The man's just leaving because he didn't get to become the deputy speaker. And he's like, I guess, felt entitled to that job and he wasn't satisfied being the deputy whip of the conservative party. And so he left. He had just gotten over criticizing how much the liberals are spending like two weeks before he left. So obviously, this isn't ideological unless he was lying about his positions before. But let's get back to the real issue at hand.
00:01:15.020The media does not want to talk about the budget. It's bad. It's not going to be winning Mark Carney a lot of support. In fact, it will be starting to lose him support both on the left flank of his party and the right flank. The NDP, the bloc hate it. Many conservative party voters hate it who end up giving a vote to the liberals in this last election because they wanted to stop Trump.
00:01:34.940They will also see this as another Justin Trudeau budget. So what better thing to talk about than whatever is going on with Pierre Polyev and a ginned up leadership crisis.
00:01:44.760Now, we actually have not had anyone else cross the floor. We kept hearing speculation that any moment now, more conservatives are going to be following behind Chris D'Entremont and joining the liberal party.
00:01:56.600And again, there was speculation that Matt Gennaro was somebody who was thinking about crossing and then just ultimately decided to fully resign.
00:02:05.520But he's also made it clear he's still voting against the liberal budget. He's still opposing the liberal government.
00:02:10.820So I've always found that story a little bit dubious. Like, what do they do? Like, threaten his family? You better not cross.
00:02:16.540OK, you can resign, but you better not cross or I'm going to do vague some things to you.
00:02:22.380But I want to go through some of these headlines that the media is putting up.
00:02:25.680And then I want to go over some polling that demonstrates, no, Pierre Polyev is not unpopular because this is the other narrative they are trying to spin out of the situation,
00:02:34.560is that it demonstrates that the Canadians don't like Pierre Polyev because Chris D'Entremont left because Chris is so stupid that he thinks that he's going to lose the next election as a conservative because the liberals got within 1% of him.
00:02:49.420Yeah, they got within 1% in their best showing ever in that riding in a result they're going to have a very difficult time recreating, if not improving on, because the NDP is not going to be dead next time.
00:03:02.440And many people who voted for Carney to stop Trump are naturally going to either stop voting liberal or they're going to go back to voting for the conservatives.
00:03:09.220But here are the current headlines that we have spinning out around the budget.
00:04:03.420Like, I know the liberals are trying to pretend like this is a great thing.
00:04:05.860Oh, look, we have cost-saving measures in the budget.
00:04:08.640I don't care about you reducing some staff in Ottawa-Gatineau if, at the same time, we're increasing spending far more on the other side of the ledger.
00:04:20.140Yes, we have found cost savings here, but if you save a billion here, but then you increase $5 billion there, I don't think you actually saved money.
00:04:29.020I think you just reorganize the waste.
00:04:31.300Many of these people losing their jobs probably aren't going to lose their jobs.
00:04:34.220They're just going to be transferred to the new departments that have more money in them.
00:04:39.020Do you think that the major projects office didn't end up onboarding a bunch of new staff members?
00:04:43.520They're not just going to fire 15% of these staff.
00:04:47.720There's way too many employees in the federal government, but the liberals rely heavily on having basically public sector employees vote for them.
00:04:57.280They're never going to be heavily reducing the size of the public sector.
00:05:02.660They may move those public sector jobs outside of Ottawa, outside of Gatineau, but they're still going to be there.
00:05:09.180You don't spend another $40 billion on a green energy grid program without hiring a bunch of consultants and a bunch of other staff members in order to manage the project.
00:05:20.980But anyways, now let's move on to some other stuff.
00:05:25.080I just want to actually highlight this one.
00:05:26.960I want to highlight this one video of the liberals trying to basically make out their economic performance as very good.
00:05:33.580We have Evan Solomon speaking here, who is currently the minister of AI, I believe, came and talked to you about how many jobs that we've created in the past year.
00:07:51.560Nearly the most jobs created in the country.
00:07:55.540Ontario is only 10,000 more than Alberta.
00:07:57.700And Ontario, as you all know, as, you know, big nerds like myself, I'm just kidding, because it's just the most obvious fact on the planet.
00:08:05.880Like, Ontario, the biggest province, only creates 10,000 more jobs than Alberta.
00:08:10.700Alberta's job growth rate is 3.3%, and the current job creation, the gain across the entire country, is only about 1%.
00:08:21.960It is being disproportionately carried by Alberta, meaning it is being disproportionately carried by the economy that Danielle Smith is making.
00:08:31.820And also, many of the jobs that are being created in Ontario are what we call subsidy jobs.
00:08:37.800The government subsidizes an industry.
00:08:41.280They give massive tax breaks to a specific industry that nobody else is getting.
00:08:44.920And that industry obviously has to then create jobs in order to play ball with the government and get this money.
00:08:52.520I'm not impressed that the Ontario auto sector and some of the other steel and aluminum, like, or steel plants and whatnot, are gaining jobs.
00:09:04.040We're just giving these companies millions to billions of dollars, and then they agree to hire, like, 500 more people or whatever, and we do this across the entire sector.
00:09:13.320You can't make an economy out of this.
00:09:15.540Where in Alberta, we don't really do much of that.
00:09:18.360Yeah, there is green energy subsidies I don't like in Alberta as well.
00:09:22.540But overall, Alberta creates actual jobs, and Ontario and other provinces create fake jobs.
00:09:30.400So, yeah, just basically demonstrating how easily I can poke a hole in this argument that somehow, like, oh, goodness, look how great the economy is doing.
00:09:39.320Yes, in Alberta, if you took Alberta out of the equation, everything looks pretty mediocre, I'm going to be honest here.
00:09:48.100So now I'm just going to go look up David Colletto's numbers that he's just put out recently for who would do well as the conservative leader.
00:09:56.940And this kind of demonstrates just how dumb the media's narrative is right now, because you'd suspect that Polyev, and these numbers were collected in the midst of the unpopularity, supposedly, of Polyev.
00:10:15.720And when I say still doing quite well, I mean he is literally beating Mark Carney in the next election.
00:10:22.220Look, this is a hypothetical ballot poll that Abacus Data did.
00:10:27.400It's a bit small, so maybe I will drag over the whiteboard in a second here.
00:10:33.820But we have a chart here that shows how different conservative figures, different conservative politicians, you know, past prime ministers, Ontario's premier Doug Ford, would do against Mark Carney's liberals.
00:10:48.800We're going to do this on the fly, people.
00:11:22.680With him at the helm of the conservative party, the conservatives are leading the liberals by plus two.
00:11:29.520That sounds pretty good to me, especially because the conservative vote is so efficient these days.
00:11:34.740Beating the liberals by two points nationally in the popular vote would actually probably net the conservatives upwards of like 175 seats or so.
00:11:44.380Let's now go down to Doug Ford, who himself is barely conservative in any way, shape, or form.
00:11:52.640I just consider him a liberal or a progressive at this point.
00:11:55.940He runs the PC Party of Ontario, but it really should just rename itself the Progressive Party.
00:12:00.500Doug Ford, he would be a plus three for the liberals if he became the leader of the conservative party.
00:12:11.620Let's go down to someone a little bit more positive.
00:13:09.620Michelle Rempel-Garner would lose by plus 11 points to the conservatives.
00:13:16.480I feel like I have made my point clear here.
00:13:19.080You are not going to find someone more popular right now than Pierre Polyev.
00:13:23.540Now, you could say because the way the question was asked, you are going to have conservatives reflexively saying, yes, no, I wouldn't vote conservative if Pierre Polyev isn't the leader.
00:13:32.280And you could say, well, some of these people haven't been leader, so they don't get to make the case for why they should be in government instead of the liberals.
00:13:39.360But still, if anything, this entire poll question, and I like advocacy data, they do good work, but this whole poll question could end up having liberals say, oh, it's going to be Jason Kenney?
00:13:50.980Oh, I'd vote for Jason Kenney because that Pierre Polyev guy is so bad.
00:13:54.820A question like this sometimes incentivizes people to say, oh, of course I'd vote conservative if it wasn't Pierre Polyev.
00:14:01.900But that's not what's happening here. Polyev, when you stack him up against other names, is still doing very well.
00:14:09.200This isn't somewhat good. This is very good. Being up two points on the liberals on election day would be fantastic.
00:14:17.040Doug Ford, he's probably only at a plus three because, yeah, you get some more older liberal PC type voters who like Doug Ford.
00:14:26.380But overall, he only probably does that well because he's a big name. Stephen Harper does worse. Jason Kenney does worse.
00:14:32.340Caroline Mulroney does worse. Michelle Rempel-Garner does worse. And we have more names on here.
00:14:37.880Tim Houston would get destroyed by 10 points. We have Mark Mulroney, who would get destroyed by 9 points.
00:14:43.140Jamil Giovanni, and I like Jamil Giovanni, but he's not enough of a known quantity at this point.
00:14:47.860He would lose by 13 points. Melissa Lansman apparently would lose by 17 points.
00:14:53.540So, yeah, this is not too bad. Oh, Polyev is unpopular. He's in a leadership crisis. No, no, he is not.
00:15:03.300This is a stupid talking point. Oh, he lost Chris D'Entremont. He's lost the moderate vote.
00:15:09.480Matt Gennaro is leaving. He has lost the moderate vote.
00:15:12.460Well, apparently he doesn't need it because he's still leading Mark Carney right now because going back to this chart, we can just write down the current support levels we see in this poll, including the undecideds.
00:15:25.660I'll see if I can do this in such a way where you can kind of see it.
00:15:28.840Right now, this poll would have it that with Polyev at the helm, conservatives would have 38% of the vote.
00:15:36.880The liberals would, as the, you know, naturally because the conservatives are leading by two, they would be at 36% of the vote.
00:15:45.600And we then also have the NDP. Let's grab orange just for the consistency of it.
00:15:55.200NDP would be at 7. We then have the Block Quebecois at 5.
00:16:02.360And basically the rest doesn't matter. Another party is in purple here and it's at 4%, which is probably 3% green and 1% PPC.
00:16:12.760And here, though, I want to write this down because it's important.
00:16:15.720We also have undecideds at 10% and undecideds will tend to split the way that the voter breakdown is already showing.
00:16:24.940So what you're probably going to have happen is in, with 10% of the vote there, you'd have the NDP probably shoot up another one.
00:16:31.760You'd probably have the conservatives go up another three and a half.
00:16:34.260The liberals go up another two. The Block grab one or two.
00:16:37.260And then maybe a Green Party and the PPC gain another half a point between each other.
00:16:42.440But this is currently a very healthy outlook for the conservatives.
00:16:47.140And there's a lot of growth potential here because, right now, the liberals are going to have to actually market their budget.
00:16:55.840They can distract. The media can pretend the budget doesn't matter right now because we're talking about peer poly of.
00:17:01.320But eventually, the liberals are going to have to justify why the economic performance of the country is not living up to their massive deficits.
00:17:08.960Why a lot of other issues have not actually been significantly resolved since they got into office.
00:17:14.780Their new approach on crime is really not going to do anything.
00:17:18.700They put up a law that is going to very minorly make it more difficult to get out on bail.
00:17:24.320If you strangled a domestic partner, you will not be granted bail.
00:17:28.800Okay, that applies to, like, no crimes.
00:17:31.640Is it serious? Should those people be held on bail? Yes.
00:17:35.160But you know what? A lot of people should be held on bail.
00:17:40.060And the thing is, yes, the laws that they're passing give a little bit more ability.
00:17:44.780For prosecutors to make sure that these people are held in prison.
00:17:48.560But the thing is that they have not wiped out things like the Gladju principle or Bill C-75 that make it that same-day automatic release is the standard.
00:17:56.940Unless prosecutors can very quickly, in the nanosecond of time before they release a guy,
00:18:02.380that why a judge should hear why this person should be held and then they should be kept in prison pretrial.
00:18:10.940We still have, again, a lot of industries in Canada that are dying, no matter what the job numbers say.
00:18:17.500The job numbers look good on a macro level, but when you actually look at the taxpayer money that's going to just subsidize those jobs to keep them,
00:19:39.220And he has the wind at his sails to probably gain a lot of this 10% undecided vote.
00:19:47.060The budget, it's not going to be popular.
00:19:49.660The thing is, it's going to cause massive inflation.
00:19:52.680And the problem with spending so much on projects as your big claim to fame, I guess, your claim to governance, that's a really stupid thing for Mark Carney to do.
00:20:04.260He would have been smarter to just give a big tax cut and then make everyone like him right away.
00:20:09.740By doing infrastructure projects, you are guaranteeing that nobody is going to care for at least four or five years because none of the projects are going to be done right away.
00:20:17.980He was on a panel recently where he talked about, oh, the pipeline discussion is so boring.
00:20:25.580Well, at this rate, even if he says yes to a pipeline, it's not going to be done before the next election.
00:20:30.680It's probably not even going to be started.
00:20:31.820It's just going to be talk like all of his other major projects.
00:20:35.460That's the problem, is that it's really difficult to run on talk.
00:20:39.740And even in that clip of Evan Solomon talking about the job numbers, aside from the job numbers, when he says, we're building homes for young Canadians, we're creating 800,000 new tech sector jobs.
00:20:50.400No, they're saying that they will attempt to do that.
00:20:53.580That doesn't actually mean they've done it.
00:20:57.600They're simply marketing their budget on intentions, not actual follow-through.
00:21:02.140And if budget intentions actually equaled follow-through, then Justin Trudeau has already made us all millionaires and we have nothing to worry about, which I believe we can all tell is not true.
00:21:12.880Anyways, so with that being said, thank you guys for watching the show.
00:21:17.080Make sure to like, share, subscribe, do all that other fantastic stuff.
00:21:20.740Thank you for supporting the channel, and I will be back next time.