In this episode of the podcast, I talk about one of my biggest pet peeves when it comes to polling, and why it's one of the dumbest things a pollster can do. Polling companies try to get Canadian voters to vote on individual policy issues, and it's dumb.
00:00:00.000It's definitely not a shock that I'm making yet another video about polling. Not just because I mentioned my last video that I was going to make my next video all about polls, but because I do obviously polling videos all the time, talking about stuff like major party polling or the individual popularity ratings of leaders and why the numbers seem to be trending in the directions that they are.
00:00:19.700I'm definitely an amateur poll analyst, but I think that a lot of my insights have turned out to be true in both the short and long run. But anyways, I just wanted to talk about today, instead of that sort of general polling stuff, one of my big pet peeves when it comes to the polling industry.
00:00:36.600I know other people from other channels like Chris from the Great Canadian Bagel podcast also hates this. And what we hate is when polling companies try and pull Canadian voters on individual policy issues. It's one of the dumbest things going and it influences Canadian parties and political analysts in the dumbest directions possible.
00:00:57.840People come up with this very red Tory centre-left vision of the country because this polling is done so poorly that it ends up tricking people into thinking that the electorate is far more pro-big government than they really are because the questions are so just ham-handedly delivered to Canadians.
00:01:16.440I'm not sure if it's deliberate or not deliberate, but nobody should be taking these polls seriously. And specifically today, I think what ended up triggering a lot of people to just talk about this issue was the current polling from several different polling companies on the popularity of the carbon tax and people's thoughts on the carbon tax.
00:01:35.520There's also another thing about groceries I want to add in towards the end, but it's the carbon tax issue that's most egregious when you actually look at the questions being asked and the polling, you know, contrasted to the way that Canadians are indicating that they'll vote in the next federal election.
00:01:51.860So this is the first one that I noticed that really rubbed me the wrong way. So it's about the carbon tax's general support. So carbon tax support shows 33% of people currently support the carbon tax, 29% opposed, 23% are neutral, and 14% are unsure. Does that sound like reality to you? The carbon tax has been around for quite a while. We've already had two elections about the carbon tax.
00:02:15.800And you're telling me that, forget about the support or oppose, that there is a combined 37% of people who still don't know, a plurality of people who are either unsure or undecided or neutral on the issue of the carbon tax, something that has objectively been raising prices for people at a time that affordability issues, not even based on the polling, but just based on talking to people and the general sentiments around Canada,
00:02:43.960affordability is pretty much the top issue for most people or basically the economy. I find the way that when pollsters ask people their top issues, they end up breaking down a lot of things that could just be summed up as the economy too much.
00:02:56.760But do you really think that there's 37% of people either neutral or undecided on the carbon tax these days? It's an incredibly polarizing issue. And there's a reason why the liberals are running away from it.
00:03:08.260It's not because they have 33 solid support on it and with a bunch of extra people who just don't know or don't care. That's ridiculous.
00:03:16.460It's not just 29% support of why the acts, the tax movement started by Jim Carlios back when he was getting rid of Patrick Brown as the Ontario PC leader.
00:03:26.100There's a reason why this stuff was so popular back then. And it is still popular now.
00:03:30.920It's not because 27 or what is it? 29% of people want to get rid of the carbon tax. It's way higher than that.
00:03:37.240But just the general ways that these pollsters will ask questions or they'll ask you a bunch of leading questions before they get to that question,
00:03:44.300which makes puts you into a more save the planet kind of a mindset, this kind of thing where they ask you.
00:03:50.120So are you a good person or a bad person with the general like idea that if you keep picking the environmental option,
00:03:57.920then you must be a good person. Like I've seen this in polls before that the questions that come before more serious questions are leading you to be more open towards big government policies.
00:04:08.920It's ridiculous. But this is what I meant when I talked about in a previous video,
00:04:12.920the difference between people's stated preference and their revealed preference.
00:04:17.080Like the example I use that time, which was from a study. If you ask people what kind of coffee they like,
00:04:22.600if you describe different varietals of coffee you can buy at the grocery store,
00:04:26.840disproportionately people say that their favorite type of coffee or their favorite profile of coffee is strong and bold.
00:04:32.940Even though most people buy usually mild or medium blends that are smoother.
00:04:38.280It's not really, but it just sounds like something that you should like because, well, if you don't like strong, bold coffee,
00:04:43.680why are you even drinking coffee? That's kind of like the implication you get from some coffee snobs in society,
00:04:48.520which pushes more people in polling to try and pick those options.
00:04:52.320And that's exactly what's happening here. At least in my opinion, I could like,
00:04:56.860I guess I don't have the backend results fully from these pollsters are the questions they asked on the phone,
00:06:51.420So support for the federal government's program to provide low income homes with electric heat pumps.
00:06:57.42053% support, 15% oppose, and neutral is 22%.
00:07:01.240I highly doubt that this is a real outcome from a poll that would be reflected in people's voting patterns.
00:07:08.000Because really it's just saying, do you want to give people good things?
00:07:11.240Do you think it would be great if the government would provide some people some good things?
00:07:14.440And people are saying, well, sure, it's good to provide people good things.
00:07:17.520When they're not going to tell you that anyone who just does not qualify for this program still pays more taxes,
00:07:23.720who could be a low income individual who doesn't get the heat pump.
00:07:27.440And so what this is turning into, like all government programs are supposedly going to help the poor.
00:07:31.940It helps a tiny little sliver of the lower income population and then damages the rest of them.
00:07:37.580This is not a poll question that should be asked to people because people don't have enough knowledge on what a lot of these programs entail,
00:07:44.740what the effect is going to be, and how much it's going to cost to be able to install this in each individual home.
00:07:49.980Without a doubt or almost without exception, the government spends way more money delivering a program than it would cost if the person just went out and bought a heating pump for themselves.
00:08:00.960Yes, maybe someone in low income couldn't pay for it, but it doesn't help them if you're only giving maybe one out of every 10 low income people a heat pump,
00:08:09.100but the rest of those low income people get to help pay for it.
00:08:15.820This one is, do you think, and this one is from Nanos Research, and they actually put the quote of what the question was.
00:08:21.680So it reads, do you think a carbon tax on things like gas is effective in encouraging people to use less fuel?
00:08:27.160And it says 61% say non-effective and 36% say effective.
00:08:32.560Now, this one's a little bit closer to reality in terms of I could see some people being under the misapprehension that the carbon tax actually keeps people from using as much fuel.
00:08:44.480Oil and gas or just energy in general is an inelastic good.
00:08:48.100People spend as much as the price is going to be to fill up their tank, and they're going to drive all the places that they were already going to drive.
00:08:55.920Because people don't exactly just sort of drive in circles.
00:08:58.800It's not one of these beer and popcorn things that the Paul Martin liberals suggested back in the day that if you give someone money, they're just going to spend it on nonsense.
00:09:06.160People don't fuel up their car to drive nonsense places.
00:09:09.040They're usually fueling up their vehicles to go to work or to go pick up groceries or to go pick up their kids from hockey or school.
00:09:16.040It's not people aren't just burning gasoline for fun.
00:09:18.560But this is why it's a dumb question to ask people, because people, one, they don't realize.
00:09:23.060I don't think enough people realize that the carbon tax has not cut emissions in any way, shape, or form.
00:10:12.020It says, when it comes to the carbon tax on things like gas, is it important to protect the environment in the long term, which got 53% of the support, or keep costs down today, 40%?
00:10:22.360I highly doubt this is accurate in any way.
00:10:25.120Again, in an election we're leading into in 2025, in which the top issue, without a doubt for the vast majority of people, is affordability.
00:10:35.320Do you really think that most people are going to actually, that's not the right one, but do you think 53%, a majority, are going to say that the carbon tax or that government program should be primarily focused on environmental impact before affordability?
00:10:50.800So is everyone, whenever Nanos, and even Nanos does poll people's top issues, I believe, and like 35% or 45% of their top issues, everyone's top issues are pretty much economic issues, and only like 6% or 7% of people pick environment.
00:11:07.600Do we really think all those people who pick economic issues are lying?
00:11:11.100But again, it's a poll question skewed in order to get to a result.
00:11:14.360It says, when it comes to the carbon tax, things like gas, on things like gas, it is more important to.
00:11:19.900The thing is that it doesn't actually, it basically asks a leading question, basically saying, should the function of the carbon tax be to keep costs down or protect the environment?
00:11:30.120The stated intent of the carbon tax is to protect the environment.
00:11:32.880So you basically just ask people, is the carbon tax meant to do the things that the carbon tax stated it's meant to do?
00:11:38.600And most people are going to say, I guess it is.
00:11:44.200I'm just going to use one of the two grocery questions.
00:11:46.480This is another policy question in which it's not worth asking people, because not enough people know about the issue.
00:11:53.060And even those who do, they're mostly just going to know what the legislation proposes to do.
00:11:58.460Most people are not like their own political commentators who read all the resources that come out of the government and then make up their own minds, like on what all these different policies mean and if they're going to be effective or not.
00:12:10.020Most people have lives and they're either working or doing some sort of leisure activity.
00:12:14.600They're not engaging in politics in such a detailed level that they're going to have a coherent opinion on any of this stuff.
00:12:22.720We literally pirate, like as Chris from like the Great Canadian Bagel podcast points out, we literally elect politicians in order to evaluate if these are good policies or not.
00:12:31.580You're not supposed to pull the public on every single tiny minute detail about policies, but they're pretending like certain policies are popular simply because you throw an incredibly complex question at people and they don't know.
00:12:44.220So they're just going to sort of agree with how, however, if the policy sounds good on its face or not.
00:12:52.060Oh, here, no, there's another energy one.
00:12:54.720I guess I'm going to have to pull up the one I had on the groceries, but I'll still talk about this one.
00:12:59.640So this one says, will carbon tax make you more or less likely to use more energy efficient, environmentally friendly alternatives when it comes to day-to-day life?
00:13:06.760And it says, more likely says, is 50% less likely, 33% unsure 17?
00:14:14.320This is the polling question on groceries.
00:14:16.460It reads, and this is from Abacus Data.
00:14:18.580Usually I like Abacus Data, but shame on them for doing this.
00:14:21.200It says, would you support or oppose federal provincial governments making it mandatory for large grocery chains to follow the grocery code of conduct?
00:14:41.620If you actually read it, it's just fluff saying that, you know, prices should be predictable and transparent.
00:14:46.600But I'm sorry to tell people, other than the small bread scandal among some of the grocery store chains, like raising the price of bread slightly, one of the cheapest products on the shelves possible.
00:14:58.940Other than that, there is no significant amount of price gouging in Canada.
00:15:03.340The reason prices are going up is because the government prints and spends too much money and they tax too much.
00:15:48.040And then you're wondering why you have such high approval for the carbon tax.
00:15:52.160When obviously all of these polling questions are skewed towards trying to warp people into saying that they approve of the carbon tax.
00:15:59.340Or if it's not intentional, these are just incompetently designed questions.
00:16:03.260I'm not a professional pollster, but every time questions like this come out, it never gets reflected by the way people are actually going to vote.
00:16:10.420If carbon tax polling was this close, do you think that Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party would be running away from their own policy and trying to give out exemptions for things like home heating oil?
00:16:22.080That's not what – obviously internal party polling is probably showing that the Conservative Party's position on the carbon tax wanting to fully eliminate it is the most popular position.
00:16:30.440That's why the Conservatives are way ahead of the Liberals in the polling.
00:16:33.880The Liberals wouldn't be this far behind if a bunch of their top-line policies were polling as mixed as the carbon tax is supposedly polling.
00:16:56.820I'm also running for the Calgary-Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:17:00.980So if you live in that riding, buy a Conservative Party membership and vote for me once I get approved for the ballot and they call a vote, a voting date.
00:17:08.600Other than that, that's it for me today.
00:17:11.060This video has gone on way too long, but it just demonstrates my ability to talk about polling incessantly.
00:17:16.380I'll definitely be back in a future video, probably in less than a week, talking about polling again.
00:17:20.920I hope it doesn't drive you guys crazy because although it kind of drives me crazy, I always like talking about it.