The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - December 12, 2023


New carbon tax polling is complete garbage

Topics
carbon tax polling issues home heating carbon tax poll carbon tax polling
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Chris Patrick Brown Paul Martin Nanos Link
Progressive Hypocrisy Peaks As Trudeau Crushes The Poor Liberals exposed for faking support for Liberal Speaker

Episode Stats


Length

17 minutes

Words per minute

196.5

Word count

3,429

Sentence count

194

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

13

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode of the podcast, I talk about one of my biggest pet peeves when it comes to polling, and why it's one of the dumbest things a pollster can do. Polling companies try to get Canadian voters to vote on individual policy issues, and it's dumb.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 It's definitely not a shock that I'm making yet another video about polling. Not just because I mentioned my last video that I was going to make my next video all about polls, but because I do obviously polling videos all the time, talking about stuff like major party polling or the individual popularity ratings of leaders and why the numbers seem to be trending in the directions that they are.
00:00:19.700 I'm definitely an amateur poll analyst, but I think that a lot of my insights have turned out to be true in both the short and long run. But anyways, I just wanted to talk about today, instead of that sort of general polling stuff, one of my big pet peeves when it comes to the polling industry.
00:00:36.600 I know other people from other channels like Chris from the Great Canadian Bagel podcast also hates this. And what we hate is when polling companies try and pull Canadian voters on individual policy issues. It's one of the dumbest things going and it influences Canadian parties and political analysts in the dumbest directions possible.
00:00:57.840 People come up with this very red Tory centre-left vision of the country because this polling is done so poorly that it ends up tricking people into thinking that the electorate is far more pro-big government than they really are because the questions are so just ham-handedly delivered to Canadians. 0.96
00:01:16.440 I'm not sure if it's deliberate or not deliberate, but nobody should be taking these polls seriously. And specifically today, I think what ended up triggering a lot of people to just talk about this issue was the current polling from several different polling companies on the popularity of the carbon tax and people's thoughts on the carbon tax.
00:01:35.520 There's also another thing about groceries I want to add in towards the end, but it's the carbon tax issue that's most egregious when you actually look at the questions being asked and the polling, you know, contrasted to the way that Canadians are indicating that they'll vote in the next federal election.
00:01:51.860 So this is the first one that I noticed that really rubbed me the wrong way. So it's about the carbon tax's general support. So carbon tax support shows 33% of people currently support the carbon tax, 29% opposed, 23% are neutral, and 14% are unsure. Does that sound like reality to you? The carbon tax has been around for quite a while. We've already had two elections about the carbon tax.
00:02:15.800 And you're telling me that, forget about the support or oppose, that there is a combined 37% of people who still don't know, a plurality of people who are either unsure or undecided or neutral on the issue of the carbon tax, something that has objectively been raising prices for people at a time that affordability issues, not even based on the polling, but just based on talking to people and the general sentiments around Canada,
00:02:43.960 affordability is pretty much the top issue for most people or basically the economy. I find the way that when pollsters ask people their top issues, they end up breaking down a lot of things that could just be summed up as the economy too much.
00:02:56.760 But do you really think that there's 37% of people either neutral or undecided on the carbon tax these days? It's an incredibly polarizing issue. And there's a reason why the liberals are running away from it.
00:03:08.260 It's not because they have 33 solid support on it and with a bunch of extra people who just don't know or don't care. That's ridiculous. 0.98
00:03:16.460 It's not just 29% support of why the acts, the tax movement started by Jim Carlios back when he was getting rid of Patrick Brown as the Ontario PC leader.
00:03:26.100 There's a reason why this stuff was so popular back then. And it is still popular now.
00:03:30.920 It's not because 27 or what is it? 29% of people want to get rid of the carbon tax. It's way higher than that.
00:03:37.240 But just the general ways that these pollsters will ask questions or they'll ask you a bunch of leading questions before they get to that question,
00:03:44.300 which makes puts you into a more save the planet kind of a mindset, this kind of thing where they ask you.
00:03:50.120 So are you a good person or a bad person with the general like idea that if you keep picking the environmental option,
00:03:57.920 then you must be a good person. Like I've seen this in polls before that the questions that come before more serious questions are leading you to be more open towards big government policies.
00:04:08.920 It's ridiculous. But this is what I meant when I talked about in a previous video,
00:04:12.920 the difference between people's stated preference and their revealed preference.
00:04:17.080 Like the example I use that time, which was from a study. If you ask people what kind of coffee they like,
00:04:22.600 if you describe different varietals of coffee you can buy at the grocery store,
00:04:26.840 disproportionately people say that their favorite type of coffee or their favorite profile of coffee is strong and bold.
00:04:32.940 Even though most people buy usually mild or medium blends that are smoother.
00:04:38.280 It's not really, but it just sounds like something that you should like because, well, if you don't like strong, bold coffee,
00:04:43.680 why are you even drinking coffee? That's kind of like the implication you get from some coffee snobs in society,
00:04:48.520 which pushes more people in polling to try and pick those options.
00:04:52.320 And that's exactly what's happening here. At least in my opinion, I could like,
00:04:56.860 I guess I don't have the backend results fully from these pollsters are the questions they asked on the phone,
00:05:02.040 but like, this is not,
00:05:04.140 this does not reflect reality if you walk around Canada for five seconds,
00:05:07.460 but here's another part of one of these polls. I think the, the, yeah,
00:05:11.280 this is also from innovation research.
00:05:13.260 And the question is support for the federal government's exemption on the carbon tax on home heating.
00:05:18.020 The opposition is 28% for the carbon tax for,
00:05:22.160 for the federal government to exempt the carbon tax on home heating oil.
00:05:25.020 So this is specifically about how 40% households in the Maritimes got an exemption on home heating oil
00:05:30.740 in order to basically not have to pay the carbon tax.
00:05:33.860 Only 28% opposed 27% support and 31% are neutral.
00:05:38.160 This has been a major issue in the Canadian media since Justin Trudeau gave the exemption to the Maritimes
00:05:44.720 because people see it as deeply unfair and they like,
00:05:47.640 would like their own home heating to be carbon tax exempt.
00:05:51.020 Obviously,
00:05:51.580 if you pull Maritimes on this,
00:05:53.720 they will,
00:05:54.340 or at least the 40% who use home heating oil are going to be very predisposed to saying that they support the exemption.
00:06:00.540 But the question is so gnarled.
00:06:02.680 Should the pause been extended to all forms of home heating?
00:06:09.780 Should it have just been given to home heating oil?
00:06:12.680 Or should nobody have gotten the exemption?
00:06:14.680 That's an actual fair question. 0.93
00:06:16.420 This is a very dumb yes or no that makes the Canadian public look much more mixed on the issue of home heating carbon tax pauses. 0.84
00:06:25.680 It's just it's very popular for the pause to go into place. 0.96
00:06:29.020 But the way they pitch this question makes it look like there might be a bunch of carbon tax supporters out there
00:06:33.540 who don't want any exemptions made when in reality,
00:06:36.620 it's probably a lot of people out there who just think it's unfair that they didn't give the exemption.
00:06:40.820 And even some of the supporters might be people who just generally oppose the carbon tax.
00:06:44.820 So they will back any pause that can be put into place in order to save people money.
00:06:49.560 Anyways,
00:06:50.220 here's another one of the questions.
00:06:51.420 So support for the federal government's program to provide low income homes with electric heat pumps.
00:06:57.420 53% support, 15% oppose, and neutral is 22%.
00:07:01.240 I highly doubt that this is a real outcome from a poll that would be reflected in people's voting patterns.
00:07:08.000 Because really it's just saying, do you want to give people good things?
00:07:11.240 Do you think it would be great if the government would provide some people some good things?
00:07:14.440 And people are saying, well, sure, it's good to provide people good things.
00:07:17.520 When they're not going to tell you that anyone who just does not qualify for this program still pays more taxes,
00:07:23.720 who could be a low income individual who doesn't get the heat pump.
00:07:27.440 And so what this is turning into, like all government programs are supposedly going to help the poor.
00:07:31.940 It helps a tiny little sliver of the lower income population and then damages the rest of them.
00:07:37.580 This is not a poll question that should be asked to people because people don't have enough knowledge on what a lot of these programs entail,
00:07:44.740 what the effect is going to be, and how much it's going to cost to be able to install this in each individual home.
00:07:49.980 Without a doubt or almost without exception, the government spends way more money delivering a program than it would cost if the person just went out and bought a heating pump for themselves.
00:08:00.960 Yes, maybe someone in low income couldn't pay for it, but it doesn't help them if you're only giving maybe one out of every 10 low income people a heat pump,
00:08:09.100 but the rest of those low income people get to help pay for it. 0.88
00:08:12.480 It's ridiculous.
00:08:13.780 Anyways, here's another question.
00:08:15.820 This one is, do you think, and this one is from Nanos Research, and they actually put the quote of what the question was.
00:08:21.680 So it reads, do you think a carbon tax on things like gas is effective in encouraging people to use less fuel?
00:08:27.160 And it says 61% say non-effective and 36% say effective.
00:08:32.560 Now, this one's a little bit closer to reality in terms of I could see some people being under the misapprehension that the carbon tax actually keeps people from using as much fuel.
00:08:43.340 It doesn't.
00:08:44.480 Oil and gas or just energy in general is an inelastic good.
00:08:48.100 People spend as much as the price is going to be to fill up their tank, and they're going to drive all the places that they were already going to drive.
00:08:55.920 Because people don't exactly just sort of drive in circles.
00:08:58.800 It's not one of these beer and popcorn things that the Paul Martin liberals suggested back in the day that if you give someone money, they're just going to spend it on nonsense.
00:09:06.160 People don't fuel up their car to drive nonsense places.
00:09:09.040 They're usually fueling up their vehicles to go to work or to go pick up groceries or to go pick up their kids from hockey or school.
00:09:16.040 It's not people aren't just burning gasoline for fun.
00:09:18.560 But this is why it's a dumb question to ask people, because people, one, they don't realize.
00:09:23.060 I don't think enough people realize that the carbon tax has not cut emissions in any way, shape, or form.
00:09:28.000 And then also, who cares?
00:09:30.380 Does the Canadian's opinion on if it's effective or not actually affect whether or not the carbon tax is effective?
00:09:36.680 It's not effective.
00:09:37.760 So what's the point of asking people?
00:09:39.540 But this is, again, to try and make analysts who might be advising parties. 0.86
00:09:43.380 And this is what happens with conservatives, advisors or consultants inside the conservative party will read dumb polls like this.
00:09:50.280 And they'll think, you know, maybe it's not worth opposing the carbon tax because look at this poll up here.
00:09:55.200 33% of people support it.
00:09:56.640 Only 29% oppose it when it's just a poorly constructed poll question.
00:10:00.760 So it's coming to results that don't reflect reality because this poll question itself doesn't reflect reality.
00:10:07.580 So the results are not going to either.
00:10:10.600 Anyways, here's another one.
00:10:12.020 It says, when it comes to the carbon tax on things like gas, is it important to protect the environment in the long term, which got 53% of the support, or keep costs down today, 40%?
00:10:22.360 I highly doubt this is accurate in any way.
00:10:25.120 Again, in an election we're leading into in 2025, in which the top issue, without a doubt for the vast majority of people, is affordability.
00:10:35.320 Do you really think that most people are going to actually, that's not the right one, but do you think 53%, a majority, are going to say that the carbon tax or that government program should be primarily focused on environmental impact before affordability?
00:10:50.800 So is everyone, whenever Nanos, and even Nanos does poll people's top issues, I believe, and like 35% or 45% of their top issues, everyone's top issues are pretty much economic issues, and only like 6% or 7% of people pick environment.
00:11:07.600 Do we really think all those people who pick economic issues are lying?
00:11:11.100 But again, it's a poll question skewed in order to get to a result.
00:11:14.360 It says, when it comes to the carbon tax, things like gas, on things like gas, it is more important to.
00:11:19.900 The thing is that it doesn't actually, it basically asks a leading question, basically saying, should the function of the carbon tax be to keep costs down or protect the environment?
00:11:30.120 The stated intent of the carbon tax is to protect the environment.
00:11:32.880 So you basically just ask people, is the carbon tax meant to do the things that the carbon tax stated it's meant to do?
00:11:38.600 And most people are going to say, I guess it is.
00:11:40.580 It's not a real question.
00:11:42.300 Anyways, here's the one on groceries.
00:11:44.200 I'm just going to use one of the two grocery questions.
00:11:46.480 This is another policy question in which it's not worth asking people, because not enough people know about the issue.
00:11:53.060 And even those who do, they're mostly just going to know what the legislation proposes to do.
00:11:58.460 Most people are not like their own political commentators who read all the resources that come out of the government and then make up their own minds, like on what all these different policies mean and if they're going to be effective or not.
00:12:10.020 Most people have lives and they're either working or doing some sort of leisure activity.
00:12:14.600 They're not engaging in politics in such a detailed level that they're going to have a coherent opinion on any of this stuff.
00:12:22.720 We literally pirate, like as Chris from like the Great Canadian Bagel podcast points out, we literally elect politicians in order to evaluate if these are good policies or not.
00:12:31.580 You're not supposed to pull the public on every single tiny minute detail about policies, but they're pretending like certain policies are popular simply because you throw an incredibly complex question at people and they don't know.
00:12:44.220 So they're just going to sort of agree with how, however, if the policy sounds good on its face or not.
00:12:49.660 So here's what it says.
00:12:52.060 Oh, here, no, there's another energy one.
00:12:54.720 I guess I'm going to have to pull up the one I had on the groceries, but I'll still talk about this one.
00:12:59.640 So this one says, will carbon tax make you more or less likely to use more energy efficient, environmentally friendly alternatives when it comes to day-to-day life?
00:13:06.760 And it says, more likely says, is 50% less likely, 33% unsure 17?
00:13:13.760 50% of people are lying.
00:13:15.500 And the other 33% of people, in my mind, picked the correct honest answer.
00:13:21.480 But again, read that question.
00:13:23.960 It's basically asking you, are you a good person or a bad person?
00:13:27.380 Are you going to hurt the environment or save the environment?
00:13:31.260 Who's going to say, oh, I'm less likely?
00:13:33.200 I think they're being honest, and I think they're seeing through what the question is asking them.
00:13:37.020 They're saying, is the carbon tax going to make you act like a more responsible, environmentally friendly person or not?
00:13:42.680 And then they're finding out that a bunch of people are just going to say, yeah, I guess it is.
00:13:46.540 It is not because those people actively are doing anything.
00:13:49.640 There's a reason.
00:13:50.320 Again, since the carbon tax has been around, people have not actually been, like, emissions have not gone down significantly at all.
00:13:59.280 Anyways, I found the polling question on groceries here.
00:14:03.200 And this will be the last thing I talk about because this video is already kind of long. 0.99
00:14:06.620 But this is so monumentally stupid. 0.99
00:14:09.980 Never ask people questions about policies like this. 1.00
00:14:12.620 It's very manipulative.
00:14:14.320 This is the polling question on groceries.
00:14:16.460 It reads, and this is from Abacus Data.
00:14:18.580 Usually I like Abacus Data, but shame on them for doing this.
00:14:21.200 It says, would you support or oppose federal provincial governments making it mandatory for large grocery chains to follow the grocery code of conduct?
00:14:29.160 And it says, support 70%, oppose 10%.
00:14:32.140 Please tell me.
00:14:34.300 I would love to know what percentage of people know what the grocery code of conduct is.
00:14:38.340 I've read about the grocery code of conduct.
00:14:40.340 It's nonsense.
00:14:41.620 If you actually read it, it's just fluff saying that, you know, prices should be predictable and transparent.
00:14:46.600 But I'm sorry to tell people, other than the small bread scandal among some of the grocery store chains, like raising the price of bread slightly, one of the cheapest products on the shelves possible.
00:14:58.940 Other than that, there is no significant amount of price gouging in Canada.
00:15:03.340 The reason prices are going up is because the government prints and spends too much money and they tax too much.
00:15:09.280 That's it.
00:15:10.160 But this entire question is to basically push the idea that Canadians want grocery store chains held accountable.
00:15:16.280 Ask a real question.
00:15:17.560 Ask Canadians what they think the leading cause of grocery store prices going up are.
00:15:22.840 Is it price gouging?
00:15:24.620 Is it taxes and spending from the government?
00:15:27.940 Or is it just, you know, world events?
00:15:30.240 Or is it general inflation?
00:15:31.460 Most people are going to pick taxes from the government and way too much spending and government caused inflation.
00:15:37.300 Because that's what most people think.
00:15:38.560 Well, when you design questions like this, you basically just go up to voters and say, do you agree with me?
00:15:45.120 Yes or no?
00:15:45.680 You should pick yes.
00:15:46.700 And then the person picks yes.
00:15:48.040 And then you're wondering why you have such high approval for the carbon tax.
00:15:52.160 When obviously all of these polling questions are skewed towards trying to warp people into saying that they approve of the carbon tax.
00:15:59.340 Or if it's not intentional, these are just incompetently designed questions.
00:16:03.260 I'm not a professional pollster, but every time questions like this come out, it never gets reflected by the way people are actually going to vote.
00:16:10.420 If carbon tax polling was this close, do you think that Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party would be running away from their own policy and trying to give out exemptions for things like home heating oil?
00:16:21.360 No.
00:16:22.080 That's not what – obviously internal party polling is probably showing that the Conservative Party's position on the carbon tax wanting to fully eliminate it is the most popular position.
00:16:30.440 That's why the Conservatives are way ahead of the Liberals in the polling.
00:16:33.880 The Liberals wouldn't be this far behind if a bunch of their top-line policies were polling as mixed as the carbon tax is supposedly polling.
00:16:41.320 Anyways, that's it for me today.
00:16:43.400 You can donate to my legal fund in the description of the video below.
00:16:46.600 I don't want to drag this out too much.
00:16:47.960 Basically being sued by a billionaire, I'm winning it. 0.97
00:16:50.000 It's an extremely stupid defamation case, but he's still costing me over $25,000. 0.91
00:16:54.680 Donate to it if you want. 0.98
00:16:55.840 Link's in the description below.
00:16:56.820 I'm also running for the Calgary-Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:17:00.980 So if you live in that riding, buy a Conservative Party membership and vote for me once I get approved for the ballot and they call a vote, a voting date.
00:17:08.600 Other than that, that's it for me today.
00:17:11.060 This video has gone on way too long, but it just demonstrates my ability to talk about polling incessantly.
00:17:16.380 I'll definitely be back in a future video, probably in less than a week, talking about polling again.
00:17:20.920 I hope it doesn't drive you guys crazy because although it kind of drives me crazy, I always like talking about it.