New polls show BC Conservatives beating David Eby's NDP!
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Summary
The BC Conservatives have now polled ahead of the BC NDP in two polls, which is a big deal for the Tories. I talk about why this is happening and why the Tories are actually ahead in the polls on Vancouver Island.
Transcript
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Hey everyone, I am not in Canada to do the latest polling update for the British Columbia
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provincial election, so I am doing this video sitting on a stump in a park in Kyoto, Japan,
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but let's just jump right into what has happened recently, and that is the BC Conservatives
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have polled ahead of the BC NDP in not just one poll, not just the Main Street poll, but
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The BC Conservatives are ahead three points in the latest Main Street research poll, and
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they're ahead by one point in the latest Polara poll.
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I even predicted this was going to happen on X, where I said that as soon as we saw Main
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Street research saying that the Conservatives are leading by three points, that you're going
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to see a lot more of the pollsters start to come out and say that, yeah, actually the
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Conservatives are leading by one, leading by two, a lot of the companies are going to rework
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their methodologies to be able to find the hidden Conservative voter.
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Because the thing that's happening in this upcoming BC election is I think that the voter
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turnout is going to look very different than it did back in 2020.
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I don't just mean in terms of the percentage of people who are going to be coming out, I
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think it might be the same, if not maybe a little bit lower, simply because there's a
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lot of apathetic voters, luckily for the Conservatives, those apathetic voters are mostly picking BC,
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But the turnout is going to be different because I think the people who are going to turn out
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I think there are going to be a lot of what we call low propensity voters actually showing
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People who in previous elections hadn't shown up to vote because, you know, it's BC Liberals
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versus the NDP, who really cares, it's the, you know, two parties I don't really like.
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And now a lot of voters suddenly have an option that they do like that they can support in
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So I think what we're going to have happen is we're going to have people who hadn't voted
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in two election cycles turning out and a lot of the people who are currently being polled,
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who even they are leaning Conservative, they're less likely to show up.
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We're not just ahead by three points in the Main Street Research poll.
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It was 39 Conservative to 36 NDP and the Polara poll was 41 Conservative to 40 NDP.
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That's already good enough for the Conservatives to secure a majority if we just throw those
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But I think what actually is going to happen is that the Conservatives are going to be able
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to overperform their polling by two to three points simply because their people are going
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to show up and the NDP are not, as well as a lot of people who you just are not going
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That's been a problem with a lot of polling in the past decade or two is that online polls,
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especially, tend to get young professionals in urban core areas answering your polls.
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You don't get plumbers, people who work in trade, small business owners.
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They're not the people who take online polls in the middle of the day or live call polls
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where you're going to have to take 15 minutes to answer all their questions.
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You're not going to pick up the phone and do this in the middle of the day.
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But if you work for the government in Victoria, if you work in, you know, downtown Vancouver
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in some office job, especially for the government, you've got a ton of time on your hands to do
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This is actually the problem we've been having on Vancouver Island itself.
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Some polls show the NDP absolutely smashing it in Vancouver Island.
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It's because they're not being careful in how they're pulling it.
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So the poll is telling you exactly, like, it's telling you technically correct information,
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but they're not being specific enough about what it's telling you.
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It's mostly just saying that Victoria is very NDP.
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When you actually expand the polls out and you pull Victoria and the island, you balance
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those samples a little bit better, that they don't just get mixed together and it looks
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like the NDP are doing really well because your sample is two-thirds Victoria, the Conservatives
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That's what the Main Street Research Poll shows and that's what the Polara Poll shows.
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The Polara Poll, I believe, they're, like, basically tied up or down just one or two points
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from the NDP, which would be a Conservative victory in terms of being able to mine out
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three, four, maybe even five seats on the island.
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Ease is off pressure to not have to win all of Surrey, to not have to win all of Richmond,
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even though I do believe the Conservatives are going to have a really big turnout in Surrey.
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Surrey, all the seats there are currently considered NDP.
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If you actually look at the 338 polling website, it's all NDP.
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They only give, like, a 2%, 3% chance for the Conservatives to win those seats.
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Those seats, though, when you actually look at the Conservative campaigns out there, they're
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I know many of the candidates, Zeeshan for the Conservatives, in his riding, I forget which
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Surrey riding it, and he's already door-knocked the entire riding.
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So they've gotten to the doors well before their BC NDP or their United opponents, and
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so that's also going to be a big factor in this election is who's working harder.
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The BC Conservatives do not have a lot of money, but you guys still should donate.
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I am going to link in the description below the Abbotsford South EDA.
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If you donate there, especially if you're in the Fraser Valley, what we're going to do
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We're going to collect up enough money so that we can win that race.
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I'm currently on vacation from being his campaign manager, but we're going to collect
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up enough money to be able to win that race, and then we're going to be packaging up other
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bits of money and then sending out to ridings that do need it.
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But the Surrey ridings, it's demonstrating that you don't need that much cash to be able
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You just basically got to get to the doors first.
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Money in politics actually doesn't matter all that much.
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But if people don't want to vote for you, they're not going to vote for you.
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And that has been the life lesson that Kevin Falcon has been learning as the BC United leader.
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It doesn't matter if you dump millions of dollars on an ad campaign showing Kevin Falcon walking
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around the pier trying to look confident and professional.
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Nobody liked the BC Liberals in the last decade of their lives.
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But it's the same polls that have been showing them at nine keep showing them at nine.
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The same polls that show them at 12 keep showing them at 12.
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You have a lot of United folks on social media who what they do is they take one poll where
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they weren't doing so well from a different polling firm.
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And then they compare it to another polling firm's poll that shows them up.
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Even though if you just follow that singular polling firm's history, it has basically just
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been showing them going down and then flatlining.
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BC United even embarrassingly tried to post a fake poll where they basically polled nobody.
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They only polled like people over the age of 65.
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And in the rankings of who was in second place, they actually put themselves in second place,
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even though their own polls still revealed that they're like nine, ten points behind the
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But I think the election is really coming down to a referendum.
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Do you like David Eby and the BC NDP's performance?
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Or do you want like a rational adult in office in the form of John Rustad?
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It's not an election where anything but the NDP and the Conservatives matter.
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Frankly, United's helping the BC Conservatives because all the nervous people who voted at
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Corrigan or their federal Liberals who voted Liberal provincially in the last election
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who aren't willing to vote Conservative, at least they can vote United.
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Because I feel like if United just went away, a bunch of people would migrate back over to
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the NDP because of the two-horse race mentality and, you know, I hate Conservatives, so I'm going
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to go vote for my further destruction in the BC NDP.
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But anyways, I think that at this point, do the NDP have a path back into office?
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I'm never going to say that, oh, it's definitely a lock for the Conservatives.
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I think that if I was putting in a ballpark terms, I think 70% chance that the Conservatives
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win, 30% chance that the NDP win or it's a tie and the Greens basically are the deciding vote.
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But it's just that in all elections, you need a narrative to run on.
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Their narrative is keep our failing, terrible government in office because the alternative
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could be, like, not even worse, but, like, extreme or radical.
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It's like, the problem is the government currently in office is so extreme, you can't scare people
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with a good time saying that the Conservatives are going to get rid of your drug programs,
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SOGI-123, they're going to cut taxes, all this stuff.
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That sounds fantastic to people in British Columbia right now.
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So, like, and the Conservatives got to run on a change narrative.
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You're going to patronically go show up and keep the NDP around for another four years?
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I'm going to be driving home after a hard day's work and decide to pull over the car so
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The blue-collar vote that John Horgan is able to attract in 2020 is all gone for the NDP at
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this point, so David Eby's having to reconstruct a party from the heap that he's, like, he's
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turned it into, and all he's done is just double down on progressive voters, and progressive
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voters are maybe 15%, 20% of the electorate in BC, and the ND, and sorry, the Greens have
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half of them, so him just doubling down harder and harder, hoping that he can get these people
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to really turn out, best case scenario gets him into the mid-30s, I think, in terms of
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If he tries to moderate a bit, maybe he can crawl up to, like, 36%, 37%, 38%, but people
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know they're not moderates, and that's kind of the problem for David Eby.
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John Rustad is very undefined as the conservative leader, and that's actually helped him out
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a lot, that he's not somebody with a history of doing anything that anyone would be concerned
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He's a blank slate, and I don't mean that in terms of personality, but he's just somebody
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who is more so just representing the change people want.
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People just want anything but David Eby, they just want a guy who seems like a rational
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adult again, and that's why people are being attracted to the conservatives.
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It's the change narrative, want to get rid of David Eby, and then the actual excitement
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at being able to, like, reverse all these policies and put in place somebody who's not constantly
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harping on about activist issues, because David Eby is an activist premier, he is a protester
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in the premier's office, every issue, his approach to it is, like, an activist's approach.
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Like, you know, drug deaths are up, oh, we should just put more money into safe supply,
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You know, crime in the streets, just sanction the police more, stop arresting people.
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If we stop arresting people, the crime goes down.
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If we just disconnect the phone line from the police department, and they stop receiving
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calls in about crimes, well, then there's no more crime, because we've stopped taking
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Anyways, but that should be it for me today, guys.
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Go check out the polls online, I can't really post the details in such a video like this,
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Again, Main Street, the conservatives are up three, Polara, the conservatives are up one.
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I think that the NDP was still in trouble, even if the conservatives never actually led in
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the polls on election day, simply because turnout's going to help the conservatives a lot.
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The conservatives also have the support they need where it's needed.
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They basically own the Fraser Valley at this point.
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They're going to get four or five points in, or four or five seats in Vancouver Island.
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I think we have a good shot at winning a large portion of the Metro Vancouver donut.
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I think we can take half or more than half the Surrey seats.
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And, you know, a lot of the donut ridings around Vancouver, Vancouver Langara, I think
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And in fact, we could actually win David Eby's seat.
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Even right now, before these polls came out, David Eby was only given a 75% shot of winning
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And that's a default, more center-right, you know, BC liberal center-right type of riding.
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He just happened to beat Christy Clark back in 2013 because of how unpopular she had become.
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Um, anyways, guys, that should be it for me today.
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And if you want to support my show, you can donate to the Gibson Goat Legal Fund down there
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We are being sued by a Chinese billionaire for defamation that in more than two and a
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half years of this case going on, costing me over $32,000 in legal fees, he hasn't even
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submitted any actual evidence that we said or did anything wrong.
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He is simply dragging it out because Alberta does not have anti-slap legislation that allows
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us to end such a ridiculous defamation case early.