The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - August 23, 2024


New polls show BC Conservatives beating David Eby's NDP!


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13 minutes

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2,656

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134

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Summary

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The BC Conservatives have now polled ahead of the BC NDP in two polls, which is a big deal for the Tories. I talk about why this is happening and why the Tories are actually ahead in the polls on Vancouver Island.

Transcript

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00:00:00.320 Hey everyone, I am not in Canada to do the latest polling update for the British Columbia
00:00:05.820 provincial election, so I am doing this video sitting on a stump in a park in Kyoto, Japan,
00:00:12.180 but let's just jump right into what has happened recently, and that is the BC Conservatives
00:00:18.260 have polled ahead of the BC NDP in not just one poll, not just the Main Street poll, but
00:00:24.020 in two polls now.
00:00:25.000 The BC Conservatives are ahead three points in the latest Main Street research poll, and
00:00:30.000 they're ahead by one point in the latest Polara poll.
00:00:33.020 I even predicted this was going to happen on X, where I said that as soon as we saw Main
00:00:38.320 Street research saying that the Conservatives are leading by three points, that you're going
00:00:43.420 to see a lot more of the pollsters start to come out and say that, yeah, actually the
00:00:47.860 Conservatives are leading by one, leading by two, a lot of the companies are going to rework
00:00:52.020 their methodologies to be able to find the hidden Conservative voter.
00:00:56.360 Because the thing that's happening in this upcoming BC election is I think that the voter
00:01:02.300 turnout is going to look very different than it did back in 2020.
00:01:06.340 I don't just mean in terms of the percentage of people who are going to be coming out, I
00:01:10.300 think it might be the same, if not maybe a little bit lower, simply because there's a
00:01:15.020 lot of apathetic voters, luckily for the Conservatives, those apathetic voters are mostly picking BC,
00:01:21.520 NDP and United in the polls.
00:01:24.960 But the turnout is going to be different because I think the people who are going to turn out
00:01:28.920 are going to be very different.
00:01:29.980 I think there are going to be a lot of what we call low propensity voters actually showing
00:01:34.780 up.
00:01:35.780 People who in previous elections hadn't shown up to vote because, you know, it's BC Liberals
00:01:40.740 versus the NDP, who really cares, it's the, you know, two parties I don't really like.
00:01:46.680 And now a lot of voters suddenly have an option that they do like that they can support in
00:01:51.380 the BC Conservatives.
00:01:53.200 So I think what we're going to have happen is we're going to have people who hadn't voted
00:01:57.080 in two election cycles turning out and a lot of the people who are currently being polled,
00:02:01.860 who even they are leaning Conservative, they're less likely to show up.
00:02:06.600 So this is a big deal for the Conservatives.
00:02:09.460 We're not just ahead by three points in the Main Street Research poll.
00:02:13.660 It was 39 Conservative to 36 NDP and the Polara poll was 41 Conservative to 40 NDP.
00:02:22.260 That's already good enough for the Conservatives to secure a majority if we just throw those
00:02:26.860 numbers into a model.
00:02:29.080 But I think what actually is going to happen is that the Conservatives are going to be able
00:02:32.600 to overperform their polling by two to three points simply because their people are going
00:02:37.720 to show up and the NDP are not, as well as a lot of people who you just are not going
00:02:41.980 to be able to poll are going to show up.
00:02:44.420 That's been a problem with a lot of polling in the past decade or two is that online polls,
00:02:50.720 especially, tend to get young professionals in urban core areas answering your polls.
00:02:56.820 You don't get the farmers.
00:02:57.920 You don't get plumbers, people who work in trade, small business owners.
00:03:02.120 They're not the people who take online polls in the middle of the day or live call polls
00:03:07.160 where you're going to have to take 15 minutes to answer all their questions.
00:03:11.120 You know, you're a plumber.
00:03:12.200 You're not going to do that.
00:03:13.480 You're running a restaurant.
00:03:14.520 You're not going to pick up the phone and do this in the middle of the day.
00:03:17.160 But if you work for the government in Victoria, if you work in, you know, downtown Vancouver
00:03:22.080 in some office job, especially for the government, you've got a ton of time on your hands to do
00:03:27.020 stuff like this.
00:03:27.780 This is actually the problem we've been having on Vancouver Island itself.
00:03:31.840 Some polls show the NDP absolutely smashing it in Vancouver Island.
00:03:36.320 I don't believe that.
00:03:37.300 It's not because the polls are lying.
00:03:39.280 It's because they're not being careful in how they're pulling it.
00:03:41.820 So the poll is telling you exactly, like, it's telling you technically correct information,
00:03:48.000 but they're not being specific enough about what it's telling you.
00:03:50.580 It's mostly just saying that Victoria is very NDP.
00:03:53.080 When you actually expand the polls out and you pull Victoria and the island, you balance
00:03:57.800 those samples a little bit better, that they don't just get mixed together and it looks
00:04:01.780 like the NDP are doing really well because your sample is two-thirds Victoria, the Conservatives
00:04:06.500 are actually ahead on Vancouver Island.
00:04:09.340 That's what the Main Street Research Poll shows and that's what the Polara Poll shows.
00:04:13.160 The Polara Poll, I believe, they're, like, basically tied up or down just one or two points
00:04:17.580 from the NDP, which would be a Conservative victory in terms of being able to mine out
00:04:23.180 three, four, maybe even five seats on the island.
00:04:26.460 Ease is off pressure to not have to win all of Surrey, to not have to win all of Richmond,
00:04:32.020 even though I do believe the Conservatives are going to have a really big turnout in Surrey.
00:04:37.180 Surrey, all the seats there are currently considered NDP.
00:04:40.460 If you actually look at the 338 polling website, it's all NDP.
00:04:44.640 They only give, like, a 2%, 3% chance for the Conservatives to win those seats.
00:04:48.900 Those seats, though, when you actually look at the Conservative campaigns out there, they're
00:04:52.380 massive, very well organized.
00:04:54.540 I know many of the candidates, Zeeshan for the Conservatives, in his riding, I forget which
00:04:59.240 Surrey riding it, and he's already door-knocked the entire riding.
00:05:02.340 He's already door-knocking it again.
00:05:03.740 So they've gotten to the doors well before their BC NDP or their United opponents, and
00:05:10.400 so that's also going to be a big factor in this election is who's working harder.
00:05:14.120 The BC Conservatives do not have a lot of money, but you guys still should donate.
00:05:17.940 I am going to link in the description below the Abbotsford South EDA.
00:05:21.200 If you donate there, especially if you're in the Fraser Valley, what we're going to do
00:05:24.580 is Bruce Bandman's riding.
00:05:26.000 We're going to collect up enough money so that we can win that race.
00:05:28.920 I'm currently on vacation from being his campaign manager, but we're going to collect
00:05:32.820 up enough money to be able to win that race, and then we're going to be packaging up other
00:05:37.160 bits of money and then sending out to ridings that do need it.
00:05:40.820 But the Surrey ridings, it's demonstrating that you don't need that much cash to be able
00:05:45.480 to win an election.
00:05:46.140 You just basically got to get to the doors first.
00:05:48.480 Money in politics actually doesn't matter all that much.
00:05:51.260 You shouldn't underestimate it.
00:05:53.120 You know, money does pay for more volunteers.
00:05:55.300 It pays for more phone calls.
00:05:56.900 It pays for more advertisements.
00:05:58.520 That's all great.
00:05:59.660 But if people don't want to vote for you, they're not going to vote for you.
00:06:03.160 And that has been the life lesson that Kevin Falcon has been learning as the BC United leader.
00:06:10.300 It doesn't matter if you dump millions of dollars on an ad campaign showing Kevin Falcon walking
00:06:14.720 around the pier trying to look confident and professional.
00:06:17.720 Nobody likes United.
00:06:18.820 Nobody liked the BC Liberals in the last decade of their lives.
00:06:22.660 And so people aren't voting for them.
00:06:24.180 It's just simple as that.
00:06:25.340 It doesn't matter what they do.
00:06:27.380 They're not going to make a comeback.
00:06:29.140 Yeah, some polls are showing them at 12.
00:06:30.740 That's better than nine.
00:06:32.200 But it's the same polls that have been showing them at nine keep showing them at nine.
00:06:35.940 The same polls that show them at 12 keep showing them at 12.
00:06:39.040 You have a lot of United folks on social media who what they do is they take one poll where
00:06:45.360 they weren't doing so well from a different polling firm.
00:06:47.660 And then they compare it to another polling firm's poll that shows them up.
00:06:51.520 Even though if you just follow that singular polling firm's history, it has basically just
00:06:56.560 been showing them going down and then flatlining.
00:06:58.920 There's no movement.
00:07:00.420 BC United even embarrassingly tried to post a fake poll where they basically polled nobody.
00:07:05.700 They only polled like people over the age of 65.
00:07:08.700 And even that poll only put them at 15%.
00:07:11.520 And they pretended like this was a big coup.
00:07:14.280 And in the rankings of who was in second place, they actually put themselves in second place,
00:07:19.160 even though their own polls still revealed that they're like nine, ten points behind the
00:07:23.240 BC Conservatives. 0.95
00:07:24.000 Because it's, it's been silly. 0.99
00:07:25.980 It's been extremely silly. 0.84
00:07:28.120 But I think the election is really coming down to a referendum.
00:07:31.660 Do you like David Eby and the BC NDP's performance?
00:07:35.580 Or do you want like a rational adult in office in the form of John Rustad?
00:07:40.360 It's not an election where anything but the NDP and the Conservatives matter.
00:07:44.400 I'm not even afraid of vote splitting.
00:07:45.660 Frankly, United's helping the BC Conservatives because all the nervous people who voted at
00:07:50.800 Corrigan or their federal Liberals who voted Liberal provincially in the last election
00:07:56.040 who aren't willing to vote Conservative, at least they can vote United.
00:07:58.780 Because I feel like if United just went away, a bunch of people would migrate back over to
00:08:03.300 the NDP because of the two-horse race mentality and, you know, I hate Conservatives, so I'm going
00:08:07.900 to go vote for my further destruction in the BC NDP.
00:08:12.260 But anyways, I think that at this point, do the NDP have a path back into office?
00:08:20.380 Maybe.
00:08:21.100 I'm never going to say that, oh, it's definitely a lock for the Conservatives.
00:08:24.260 I think that if I was putting in a ballpark terms, I think 70% chance that the Conservatives
00:08:30.500 win, 30% chance that the NDP win or it's a tie and the Greens basically are the deciding vote.
00:08:38.080 But it's just that in all elections, you need a narrative to run on.
00:08:42.560 And the BC NDP don't have a narrative.
00:08:44.620 Their narrative is keep our failing, terrible government in office because the alternative
00:08:49.960 could be, like, not even worse, but, like, extreme or radical.
00:08:55.320 It's like, the problem is the government currently in office is so extreme, you can't scare people
00:09:00.000 with a good time saying that the Conservatives are going to get rid of your drug programs,
00:09:04.100 SOGI-123, they're going to cut taxes, all this stuff.
00:09:07.040 That sounds fantastic to people in British Columbia right now.
00:09:10.020 So, like, and the Conservatives got to run on a change narrative.
00:09:13.160 Change narratives are very powerful.
00:09:14.660 What are you thinking as a BC NDP voter?
00:09:17.220 You're going to patronically go show up and keep the NDP around for another four years?
00:09:21.640 Like, for what?
00:09:22.280 For what?
00:09:22.920 Who cares?
00:09:23.680 They're not doing anything good.
00:09:25.080 Yeah, I'm going to work hard.
00:09:26.140 I'm going to be driving home after a hard day's work and decide to pull over the car so
00:09:30.800 I can pull a lever for David Eby.
00:09:32.900 That's not a voter that exists.
00:09:34.880 The blue-collar vote that John Horgan is able to attract in 2020 is all gone for the NDP at
00:09:39.560 this point, so David Eby's having to reconstruct a party from the heap that he's, like, he's
00:09:46.460 turned it into, and all he's done is just double down on progressive voters, and progressive
00:09:52.040 voters are maybe 15%, 20% of the electorate in BC, and the ND, and sorry, the Greens have
00:09:59.140 half of them, so him just doubling down harder and harder, hoping that he can get these people
00:10:03.800 to really turn out, best case scenario gets him into the mid-30s, I think, in terms of
00:10:08.220 actual election day vote.
00:10:09.780 If he tries to moderate a bit, maybe he can crawl up to, like, 36%, 37%, 38%, but people
00:10:15.980 know they're not moderates, and that's kind of the problem for David Eby.
00:10:18.540 He is very much a radical, he's very defined.
00:10:21.340 John Rustad is very undefined as the conservative leader, and that's actually helped him out
00:10:24.920 a lot, that he's not somebody with a history of doing anything that anyone would be concerned
00:10:30.040 about.
00:10:30.360 He's a blank slate, and I don't mean that in terms of personality, but he's just somebody
00:10:34.260 who is more so just representing the change people want.
00:10:38.340 People just want anything but David Eby, they just want a guy who seems like a rational
00:10:42.780 adult again, and that's why people are being attracted to the conservatives.
00:10:47.160 It's the change narrative, want to get rid of David Eby, and then the actual excitement
00:10:51.400 at being able to, like, reverse all these policies and put in place somebody who's not constantly
00:10:58.540 harping on about activist issues, because David Eby is an activist premier, he is a protester
00:11:04.260 in the premier's office, every issue, his approach to it is, like, an activist's approach.
00:11:10.120 Like, you know, drug deaths are up, oh, we should just put more money into safe supply,
00:11:14.500 we should just decriminalize harder.
00:11:17.520 You know, crime in the streets, just sanction the police more, stop arresting people.
00:11:22.960 If we stop arresting people, the crime goes down.
00:11:25.560 If we just disconnect the phone line from the police department, and they stop receiving
00:11:30.000 calls in about crimes, well, then there's no more crime, because we've stopped taking
00:11:33.980 in reports.
00:11:34.840 That's actually their approach, it's insane.
00:11:37.660 Anyways, but that should be it for me today, guys.
00:11:40.380 Go check out the polls online, I can't really post the details in such a video like this,
00:11:44.580 but it's really good.
00:11:46.040 Again, Main Street, the conservatives are up three, Polara, the conservatives are up one.
00:11:50.160 I think that the NDP was still in trouble, even if the conservatives never actually led in
00:11:54.700 the polls on election day, simply because turnout's going to help the conservatives a lot.
00:11:58.640 The conservatives also have the support they need where it's needed.
00:12:02.380 They basically own the Fraser Valley at this point.
00:12:04.840 They're going to get four or five points in, or four or five seats in Vancouver Island.
00:12:09.780 I think we have a good shot at winning a large portion of the Metro Vancouver donut.
00:12:14.380 I think we can take half or more than half the Surrey seats.
00:12:17.260 Richmond, I think we get 100% of it.
00:12:19.020 And, you know, a lot of the donut ridings around Vancouver, Vancouver Langara, I think
00:12:23.900 are a lock.
00:12:24.840 And in fact, we could actually win David Eby's seat.
00:12:27.880 Vancouver Point Grey is not a safe seat.
00:12:30.280 Even right now, before these polls came out, David Eby was only given a 75% shot of winning
00:12:35.600 the seat.
00:12:35.960 And that's a default, more center-right, you know, BC liberal center-right type of riding.
00:12:40.780 So he's not even in friendly territory.
00:12:43.080 He just happened to beat Christy Clark back in 2013 because of how unpopular she had become.
00:12:47.960 Um, anyways, guys, that should be it for me today.
00:12:51.820 Have a good one.
00:12:52.880 You know, donate to the BC Conservatives.
00:12:54.960 There's a link in the description below.
00:12:56.260 And if you want to support my show, you can donate to the Gibson Goat Legal Fund down there
00:13:00.360 as well.
00:13:00.840 We are being sued by a Chinese billionaire for defamation that in more than two and a
00:13:05.420 half years of this case going on, costing me over $32,000 in legal fees, he hasn't even
00:13:10.300 submitted any actual evidence that we said or did anything wrong.
00:13:14.420 He is simply dragging it out because Alberta does not have anti-slap legislation that allows
00:13:18.980 us to end such a ridiculous defamation case early.