The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 24, 2025


No Poilievre isn't losing his seat (Update： I was wrong oof!)

Topics
working-class voters conservative
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Pierre Poilievre Corey Tanike Doug Ford Jenna Suds Carleton Bruce Fanjoy Kathleen Wynne Sam Oosterhoff Mark Carney Greg Kung Surrey Anita Vandenbelt Andrew Coyne Carlton Sikh
Liberal attacks on Poilievre keep getting DUMBER! BIG polling swing towards the Conservatives! (+4% CPC)

Episode Stats


Length

16 minutes

Words per minute

183.1

Word count

2,970

Sentence count

176

Harmful content

Toxicity

9

sentences flagged

Hate speech

8

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A bunch of legacy media outlets all ran the same story yesterday, claiming that Conservative Party Leader Pierre Polyev may lose his Ottawa-area riding of Carlton to the Liberals. No, just no. If you know anything about the riding, or a riding that is similar to it geographically, there is no chance a conservative in this cycle is going to lose that seat, let alone the Conservative party leader.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. We have to talk about what may be one of the dumbest legacy 0.97
00:00:06.480 media stories in this Canadian federal election so far. It's blatantly propaganda, but I want 0.94
00:00:13.040 to break it down to just demonstrate how blatant the legacy media is being in their attempts
00:00:18.600 to demoralize conservatives to help the liberals win this election. So you may have seen it
00:00:23.940 yesterday, but a bunch of legacy media outlets all ran the same story claiming that conservative
00:00:29.900 party leader, Pierre Polyev, may lose his Ottawa area riding of Carlton to the liberals. No.
00:00:38.640 Just no. If you know anything about the riding of Carlton or a riding that is similar to it
00:00:45.580 geographically, there is no chance a conservative in this cycle is going to lose that seat, let alone
00:00:51.540 the conservative party leader is going to lose a seat like that. That would be like if you're from
00:00:56.780 Alberta, the UCP losing in the 2023 election, the riding of Chestermere Strathmore, just because
00:01:04.400 you knocked on a few doors in a very suburban area that happens to be more liberal, like, whoa,
00:01:09.600 it's going super liberal. There are acreages all over the riding of Carlton. Do you think those people
00:01:15.420 are voting liberal? Those more acreage heavy areas of the riding are going to go 90% conservative.
00:01:21.520 So even in some crazy world that the suburban area split 50-50 between Polyev and his opponent,
00:01:29.400 Bruce Fanjoy, he's still going to win in the worst possible case scenario. Polyev would still win. 0.95
00:01:38.020 But I want to break the story down in more detail and just demonstrate just how blatantly false this
00:01:43.220 entire thing is. But before I get into it, guys, just a reminder, if you've been liking my federal
00:01:48.940 election coverage, make sure to put a like on this video, subscribe to the channel if you are not yet
00:01:54.200 a subscriber. I'm trying to hit 100,000 subscribers by mid-December of this year, or else I owe all my
00:02:01.340 friends dinner. And then also leave a comment. It helps our videos on the algorithm, and I like to see
00:02:05.860 what people are saying about the topic of the day. Now, without further ado, I want to start this
00:02:11.420 adventure, if I can call it that, with the tweet from Andrew Coyne, who says, when reacting to the
00:02:17.960 story, ouch, whether he does or not, it's the fact that conservatives are saying it. Polyev may lose his
00:02:24.620 Ottawa area riding as liberals poised to sweep the region. No, they're not. And you're going to hear me say
00:02:31.340 no, they're not a lot in this video. In fact, Mark Carney has a better chance of losing the riding of Nepean
00:02:37.740 than Polyev has to lose the riding of Carlton. I know I was on the ground in Nepean, and I wasn't
00:02:44.340 going through some more historically conservative neighborhoods and confirming that conservatives
00:02:48.580 still like us. I was in liberal parts of the Nepean riding, and those areas were much tighter than you
00:02:56.060 would think. And then I'm going to go over some other information that proves that Carney's people
00:03:00.040 are worried that he's going to lose his riding, and may even sacrifice other surrounding Ottawa area
00:03:05.320 ridings to the conservatives just to keep Carney safe. But I want to get into the article now proper
00:03:11.380 by the Globe and Mail. A lot of different websites have published information like this, but I'm just
00:03:17.640 going to use the Globe and Mail one because, frankly, I have a subscription. So you're immediately going to
00:03:23.080 see what's wrong with this. So look at this. Conservative leader Pierre Polyev at risk of losing his Ottawa
00:03:28.820 area riding as the party scrambles to send in volunteers to save the seat he has held since 2004.
00:03:34.320 Two federal and provincial conservative sources say. No, they did not. When you dig into this,
00:03:41.460 look, it says the Globe is not identifying the conservative sources, two of whom are from the
00:03:46.680 Ontario Progressive Conservative Party. It's Corey Tanike. Can we not understand that the two sources
00:03:56.140 here are probably Corey Tanike and a bottle of malt liquor? This is not a real thing. Basically,
00:04:02.400 they're saying, well, the Ontario PC Party, which is not a conservative party. It's a progressive party.
00:04:08.540 It's just the Liberal Party with the color blue. Those guys are doing some internal polling. And
00:04:14.860 their internal polling shows that things are so bad in Ontario for the conservatives that Carleton could
00:04:20.400 go down. And I heard a guy who heard a guy who knows a guy who once drove like a Silverado by the
00:04:27.700 Carlton riding. And he has a grandmother that lives there. And they noticed an extra volunteer on the
00:04:32.140 streets more than they would have expected. And now that means the conservatives are dumping in
00:04:36.760 resources and money in order to save Polyev.
00:04:40.260 Now, do you know why there are more conservative volunteers around the Ottawa area? One, because
00:04:45.620 there's already a lot of conservative staffers who work in Ottawa. And two, because the next door
00:04:50.440 riding to Polyevs, Kanata, currently held by Liberal MP Jenna Suds, that one is extremely vulnerable for
00:04:57.600 the Liberals. Do you think that Jenna Suds is going to go down to defeat, which I actually predict is
00:05:03.320 there's a good chance of, that she could lose to the conservative candidate Greg Kung. But in the
00:05:08.460 riding right next to it, Polyevs, which has a lot of rural, semi-rural small towns within it,
00:05:15.340 including some Ottawa area suburbs, that that one would then go red. And Bruce Fanjoy is going to
00:05:21.900 be the man to vanquish Pierre Polyev, a man who belongs on a Victoria City Council, rather than
00:05:29.420 Parliament for a riding like Carlton. It makes no sense. But the whole thing is just stupid. It says,
00:05:35.360 they say that Polyev conservatives are also developing troops from the party, Ottawa War Room,
00:05:39.900 to conservative-held ridings, a sign in the final days of the campaign that the party may be poised
00:05:45.840 to lose seats to the Carney-led Liberals. Okay, it's because we have a very different election
00:05:52.680 landscape in this election than we have in previous ones. I, again, door-knocked in Nepean. I door-knocked
00:06:00.380 in Kanata. I door-knocked in Ottawa-West Nepean, which is even more downtown Ottawa. I was in a Liberal
00:06:06.580 poll in Ottawa-West Nepean, like a Liberal part of the Liberal riding, and it was actually having
00:06:13.500 some gains for the conservatives. It's that, like, the election is not as simple as the 2021 and 2019
00:06:20.360 races where the West votes blue and the East votes red. Working-class neighborhoods are voting
00:06:26.760 more conservative. Minority voters are voting more conservative. Jewish voters, who usually vote very
00:06:33.000 liberal, are voting conservative because they don't like Hamas and the liberals enabling of them. 0.92
00:06:37.360 It's actually just a very different type of an election. So yeah, you might go down a street in
00:06:42.980 Carleton, and it's much more liberal than it used to be, because you're talking to probably older
00:06:48.120 retired voters who are all watching the CBC all day. Obviously, if you are an older retired voter and
00:06:54.360 you're watching my channel, you are probably not buying into a lot of CBC propaganda. And so when we see,
00:07:01.020 when they say, like, oh my goodness, they sent a couple volunteers into Carleton.
00:07:06.460 Okay, they had some people with some free time, and they probably then sent them to Kanata,
00:07:11.160 where Jenna Suds is going to go down. Mark Carney's campaign, by the way, in Nepean, is poaching
00:07:17.640 volunteers left and right from Anita Vandenbelt in Ottawa-West Nepean, as well as Jenna Suds in Kanata.
00:07:25.380 Kanata having a conservative candidate, Greg Kung, who has had over 2,900 lawn sign requests from
00:07:33.280 individuals within the riding. That is not a good riding for the liberals. I drove around it in
00:07:39.220 between door knocking. In 30 signs, in 50 signs, the sign ratio will be like 35 Greg Kung signs to 15
00:07:47.200 Jenna Suds signs. Maybe if I drew over into a super liberal area, it would be flipped. But I was in
00:07:52.200 multiple polls in Kanata, and it was looking very good for the conservative team. My goodness. But
00:07:57.440 this entire story that the Globe and Mail wrote, and that places like the Toronto Star wrote, trying
00:08:03.540 to promote this guy, Bruce Fanjoy, who is just a full-on leftist. He is not the type of guy you run
00:08:09.480 if you want to win Carleton. It's all meant to demoralize conservatives and make it seem like,
00:08:15.340 oh my goodness, if Polyev's at risk, that means the whole election's over. And that would be true. 1.00
00:08:20.980 If Polyev was truly at risk, the election would kind of be over. But it's not happening. Even
00:08:25.980 338 Canada, which has been using dog's breakfast polls in their aggregation, show Carleton at a
00:08:33.160 93% chance of going conservative 7 to the liberals. And even then, I really don't believe that. I
00:08:39.320 sincerely do not believe that Polyev has lost massive ground and only the liberals, and the liberals have
00:08:45.620 gained all of it. No, they have not. Again, the thing is that with the polls that have been going
00:08:51.000 on, and this is basically not me unskewing the polls like I'm showing a poll that's really bad
00:08:56.640 for the conservatives, and I'm going to say, actually, it's fantastic. The problem with poll accuracy in
00:09:01.880 this election is like what I've been saying before. The conservative vote has always been a little bit
00:09:06.920 more rural. But now that it's more minority heavy, and I have knocked tons of doors, I was in an area 1.00
00:09:12.540 the other day where I think we knocked on like 15 Chinese households, and they're all voting
00:09:16.560 conservative, basically minus one. Those people are less likely to take a poll. We saw this in the
00:09:22.980 British Columbia provincial election. It happens both for rural voters who you're not going to get
00:09:27.680 a farmer to take an online poll in the middle of the day or take a phone call. They're working too hard
00:09:32.020 to do that. Same as tradespeople. But when we were in BC, because there are large minority heavy 1.00
00:09:38.560 municipalities like Surrey, the polls made it seem like the NDP were going to sweep. Because when you
00:09:44.240 call up Surrey, you get a bunch of white BC NDP voters answering the calls and saying that they're
00:09:49.880 going to be voting for the NDP. But on election night, the conservatives won like three or four
00:09:54.560 ridings that nobody assumed they were going to win or assumed that they were going to be much
00:09:57.980 tighter races than they really were. Because it turns out, Hindu voters voted conservative 0.83
00:10:03.600 in large numbers, Hindu voters especially, and then Sikh voters vote conservative at massive rates
00:10:10.240 in certain areas if there are big social issues that they oppose from the liberals. And the liberals
00:10:14.760 are running on very stupid social policies that make these minority voters get out and vote conservative. 0.99
00:10:21.100 Hindu voters actually especially are the second most likely group to vote conservative in Canada 0.99
00:10:26.740 after evangelical Christians. But Indo voters don't take polls. You would have a poll come out 1.00
00:10:32.960 from Main Street Research or one of the other pollsters where they poll literally 1,500 people.
00:10:38.100 And do you know how many South Asian people end up taking that poll? Like 40 or 35. I've seen it
00:10:44.360 as low as 15. Because it's just not the culture to go around picking up calls and sitting on the phone
00:10:49.860 with some operator asking you how you're going to vote or sitting there waiting for the IVR poll voice
00:10:56.680 to tell you which button to hit for what party. And they're not going to sit down for a leger poll.
00:11:00.520 And so that is the big conservative advantage. We have more working class support, union support,
00:11:06.120 rural support has always been there, but it always tends to be hard to poll. And we have minorities. Plus,
00:11:11.320 the conservatives on their side have the effect of the shy conservative voter. And it's always been in
00:11:17.080 every election. Very few pollsters ever get the conservatives accurate on the metrics. Because especially now,
00:11:24.520 when there's all this propaganda that if you vote conservative, you might as well be some dirty
00:11:28.760 Trump Republican or whatever, you get a lot of people who don't want to answer the phone.
00:11:32.600 So even if 5%, 7%, 10% of conservatives who are voting conservative pick up the phone,
00:11:38.920 they're like, I don't want to tell the person how I'm voting. That swings the entire election.
00:11:43.320 And that's what happened in Saskatchewan. In Saskatchewan, the Saskatchewan NDP were at like
00:11:50.680 3% above in the polling for the popular vote. Pollsters would have the Saskatchewan party sometimes
00:11:57.160 winning by a point or two. But for the most part in the last week, they had the Saskatchewan NDP
00:12:01.800 winning from two points to five points. The Saskatchewan party won by 11.7% of the popular vote.
00:12:09.400 It's because pollsters often suck at getting people in rural areas, and they suck at polling
00:12:14.280 minority voters. And so when we see a lot of these polls, it's not that they're totally inaccurate.
00:12:19.880 I find polling can still be informative. Even if it's not accurate, you just kind of keep these
00:12:25.320 metrics in your head that in certain areas, they're not going to be very good at polling,
00:12:29.000 and they tend to underestimate the conservatives by a few points. You just follow the polls momentum
00:12:33.560 to be more instructive of how things are going, rather than following the poll results literally.
00:12:39.400 And so based on all that, things are going fine. But what this entire article, this entire series
00:12:44.840 of hit pieces and Pauliev's writing are focusing on is crappy polling out of the PC party who hates
00:12:51.560 the conservatives. Corey Tanike, again, who's been running down CPC HQ, and I can definitely find
00:12:57.080 some flaws with CPC HQ. But everything Corey Tanike says is like the absolute wrong thing the party
00:13:02.120 should be doing. So I can have a problem with what the party's doing. But Corey Tanike's like,
00:13:06.280 how about we just pour gasoline on the entire issue and set it on fire? I think that will help us
00:13:11.400 win. It's ridiculous. And Corey Tanike sits on CBC panels. He is a regular on CBC panels dragging the 0.97
00:13:20.360 conservatives. And then they tell us in these articles, oh, two of the sources were progressive
00:13:25.080 conservative party insiders. And I guarantee if the other two were federal conservatives, they're
00:13:30.360 probably also progressive conservatives who are loyal to Doug Ford, because Doug Ford potentially
00:13:35.480 wants to run for federal leader of the conservatives. So he's interested in having the conservatives lose.
00:13:40.600 He doesn't care about the ideology of it. He's a liberal. He has changed nothing since Kathleen Wynne
00:13:45.720 was pushed out of office by him. He's basically changed nothing that Kathleen Wynne was doing.
00:13:51.640 By the way, if you guys live in Ontario, please join, sign up for the email list for the new blue 0.98
00:13:59.960 party of Ontario, because the PC party sucks so bad. I actually endorse a small party option. I am
00:14:06.280 not against small parties, but I like small parties that actually work hard and have a reason to exist,
00:14:11.160 unlike the PPC. New blue party works hard, has EDAs in every single riding, and they actually have a
00:14:15.960 reason to exist because the Ford PCs truly are just not conservative in any way, shape or form.
00:14:21.800 Goodness, Sam Oosterhof is wasting his entire career working for Doug Ford. I'm waiting for
00:14:27.560 the on the waterfront moment where Sam Oosterhof goes to Doug Ford's house and says, I thought I
00:14:32.600 could have been a contender, Doug, because Sam, by his character, would be a great social and fiscal
00:14:38.120 conservative. And he's reporting out in favor of NDP policies at the legislature for anti-racism
00:14:44.040 training in as a part of the Ontario public education curriculum. My goodness, Sam.
00:14:50.440 Find some better people to be around because these people are leading it down the wrong path. 1.00
00:14:54.280 But yeah, so this is all stupid. I don't think I have to emphasize this anymore. 0.99
00:14:59.000 Carney probably has a better chance of losing than than Polly does. I've been to the Nepean riding.
00:15:04.360 I've been to a liberal part of the historically liberal Nepean riding, and it was tight.
00:15:08.920 Were the conservatives winning that poll? No. But the thing is that every riding has the liberal
00:15:13.640 area where the liberals win 80% of the vote, and every riding has the conservative area where
00:15:17.800 the conservatives win 80% of the vote. We were in an area in Nepean where the conservatives only
00:15:22.360 got 18% in 2021. And I would say we probably came away with 30 to 35. Massive improvements.
00:15:28.520 And I even heard there were red areas that had flipped entirely blue because of local issues
00:15:32.920 that the liberals have completely whiffed on, like crime. But anyway, so that's it for me today,
00:15:39.080 guys. Many rant at how stupid the story is. I cannot stand when I see stuff like this come 1.00
00:15:43.960 out and people start taking it seriously. Who know better? Who know better that this is not real?
00:15:49.560 If this was real, the conservatives wouldn't even be putting any money into swing ridings
00:15:53.880 because they are already lost. If Carlton was in play, this wouldn't even be an election.
00:15:59.320 We would know it's not an election because you and every one of your friends were probably voting
00:16:03.560 liberal if Carlton was going down. Anyway, so that's it for me, guys. Make sure to like the video,
00:16:08.360 subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, do all that fantastic stuff, and I'll see you guys all later.