No Poilievre isn't losing his seat (Update： I was wrong oof!)
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Summary
A bunch of legacy media outlets all ran the same story yesterday, claiming that Conservative Party Leader Pierre Polyev may lose his Ottawa-area riding of Carlton to the Liberals. No, just no. If you know anything about the riding, or a riding that is similar to it geographically, there is no chance a conservative in this cycle is going to lose that seat, let alone the Conservative party leader.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. We have to talk about what may be one of the dumbest legacy
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media stories in this Canadian federal election so far. It's blatantly propaganda, but I want
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to break it down to just demonstrate how blatant the legacy media is being in their attempts
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to demoralize conservatives to help the liberals win this election. So you may have seen it
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yesterday, but a bunch of legacy media outlets all ran the same story claiming that conservative
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party leader, Pierre Polyev, may lose his Ottawa area riding of Carlton to the liberals. No.
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Just no. If you know anything about the riding of Carlton or a riding that is similar to it
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geographically, there is no chance a conservative in this cycle is going to lose that seat, let alone
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the conservative party leader is going to lose a seat like that. That would be like if you're from
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Alberta, the UCP losing in the 2023 election, the riding of Chestermere Strathmore, just because
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you knocked on a few doors in a very suburban area that happens to be more liberal, like, whoa,
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it's going super liberal. There are acreages all over the riding of Carlton. Do you think those people
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are voting liberal? Those more acreage heavy areas of the riding are going to go 90% conservative.
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So even in some crazy world that the suburban area split 50-50 between Polyev and his opponent,
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Bruce Fanjoy, he's still going to win in the worst possible case scenario. Polyev would still win.
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But I want to break the story down in more detail and just demonstrate just how blatantly false this
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entire thing is. But before I get into it, guys, just a reminder, if you've been liking my federal
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election coverage, make sure to put a like on this video, subscribe to the channel if you are not yet
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a subscriber. I'm trying to hit 100,000 subscribers by mid-December of this year, or else I owe all my
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friends dinner. And then also leave a comment. It helps our videos on the algorithm, and I like to see
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what people are saying about the topic of the day. Now, without further ado, I want to start this
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adventure, if I can call it that, with the tweet from Andrew Coyne, who says, when reacting to the
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story, ouch, whether he does or not, it's the fact that conservatives are saying it. Polyev may lose his
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Ottawa area riding as liberals poised to sweep the region. No, they're not. And you're going to hear me say
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no, they're not a lot in this video. In fact, Mark Carney has a better chance of losing the riding of Nepean
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than Polyev has to lose the riding of Carlton. I know I was on the ground in Nepean, and I wasn't
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going through some more historically conservative neighborhoods and confirming that conservatives
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still like us. I was in liberal parts of the Nepean riding, and those areas were much tighter than you
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would think. And then I'm going to go over some other information that proves that Carney's people
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are worried that he's going to lose his riding, and may even sacrifice other surrounding Ottawa area
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ridings to the conservatives just to keep Carney safe. But I want to get into the article now proper
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by the Globe and Mail. A lot of different websites have published information like this, but I'm just
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going to use the Globe and Mail one because, frankly, I have a subscription. So you're immediately going to
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see what's wrong with this. So look at this. Conservative leader Pierre Polyev at risk of losing his Ottawa
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area riding as the party scrambles to send in volunteers to save the seat he has held since 2004.
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Two federal and provincial conservative sources say. No, they did not. When you dig into this,
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look, it says the Globe is not identifying the conservative sources, two of whom are from the
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Ontario Progressive Conservative Party. It's Corey Tanike. Can we not understand that the two sources
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here are probably Corey Tanike and a bottle of malt liquor? This is not a real thing. Basically,
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they're saying, well, the Ontario PC Party, which is not a conservative party. It's a progressive party.
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It's just the Liberal Party with the color blue. Those guys are doing some internal polling. And
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their internal polling shows that things are so bad in Ontario for the conservatives that Carleton could
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go down. And I heard a guy who heard a guy who knows a guy who once drove like a Silverado by the
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Carlton riding. And he has a grandmother that lives there. And they noticed an extra volunteer on the
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streets more than they would have expected. And now that means the conservatives are dumping in
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Now, do you know why there are more conservative volunteers around the Ottawa area? One, because
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there's already a lot of conservative staffers who work in Ottawa. And two, because the next door
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riding to Polyevs, Kanata, currently held by Liberal MP Jenna Suds, that one is extremely vulnerable for
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the Liberals. Do you think that Jenna Suds is going to go down to defeat, which I actually predict is
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there's a good chance of, that she could lose to the conservative candidate Greg Kung. But in the
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riding right next to it, Polyevs, which has a lot of rural, semi-rural small towns within it,
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including some Ottawa area suburbs, that that one would then go red. And Bruce Fanjoy is going to
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be the man to vanquish Pierre Polyev, a man who belongs on a Victoria City Council, rather than
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Parliament for a riding like Carlton. It makes no sense. But the whole thing is just stupid. It says,
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they say that Polyev conservatives are also developing troops from the party, Ottawa War Room,
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to conservative-held ridings, a sign in the final days of the campaign that the party may be poised
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to lose seats to the Carney-led Liberals. Okay, it's because we have a very different election
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landscape in this election than we have in previous ones. I, again, door-knocked in Nepean. I door-knocked
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in Kanata. I door-knocked in Ottawa-West Nepean, which is even more downtown Ottawa. I was in a Liberal
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poll in Ottawa-West Nepean, like a Liberal part of the Liberal riding, and it was actually having
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some gains for the conservatives. It's that, like, the election is not as simple as the 2021 and 2019
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races where the West votes blue and the East votes red. Working-class neighborhoods are voting
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more conservative. Minority voters are voting more conservative. Jewish voters, who usually vote very
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liberal, are voting conservative because they don't like Hamas and the liberals enabling of them.
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It's actually just a very different type of an election. So yeah, you might go down a street in
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Carleton, and it's much more liberal than it used to be, because you're talking to probably older
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retired voters who are all watching the CBC all day. Obviously, if you are an older retired voter and
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you're watching my channel, you are probably not buying into a lot of CBC propaganda. And so when we see,
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when they say, like, oh my goodness, they sent a couple volunteers into Carleton.
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Okay, they had some people with some free time, and they probably then sent them to Kanata,
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where Jenna Suds is going to go down. Mark Carney's campaign, by the way, in Nepean, is poaching
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volunteers left and right from Anita Vandenbelt in Ottawa-West Nepean, as well as Jenna Suds in Kanata.
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Kanata having a conservative candidate, Greg Kung, who has had over 2,900 lawn sign requests from
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individuals within the riding. That is not a good riding for the liberals. I drove around it in
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between door knocking. In 30 signs, in 50 signs, the sign ratio will be like 35 Greg Kung signs to 15
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Jenna Suds signs. Maybe if I drew over into a super liberal area, it would be flipped. But I was in
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multiple polls in Kanata, and it was looking very good for the conservative team. My goodness. But
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this entire story that the Globe and Mail wrote, and that places like the Toronto Star wrote, trying
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to promote this guy, Bruce Fanjoy, who is just a full-on leftist. He is not the type of guy you run
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if you want to win Carleton. It's all meant to demoralize conservatives and make it seem like,
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oh my goodness, if Polyev's at risk, that means the whole election's over. And that would be true.
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If Polyev was truly at risk, the election would kind of be over. But it's not happening. Even
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338 Canada, which has been using dog's breakfast polls in their aggregation, show Carleton at a
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93% chance of going conservative 7 to the liberals. And even then, I really don't believe that. I
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sincerely do not believe that Polyev has lost massive ground and only the liberals, and the liberals have
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gained all of it. No, they have not. Again, the thing is that with the polls that have been going
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on, and this is basically not me unskewing the polls like I'm showing a poll that's really bad
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for the conservatives, and I'm going to say, actually, it's fantastic. The problem with poll accuracy in
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this election is like what I've been saying before. The conservative vote has always been a little bit
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more rural. But now that it's more minority heavy, and I have knocked tons of doors, I was in an area
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the other day where I think we knocked on like 15 Chinese households, and they're all voting
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conservative, basically minus one. Those people are less likely to take a poll. We saw this in the
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British Columbia provincial election. It happens both for rural voters who you're not going to get
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a farmer to take an online poll in the middle of the day or take a phone call. They're working too hard
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to do that. Same as tradespeople. But when we were in BC, because there are large minority heavy
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municipalities like Surrey, the polls made it seem like the NDP were going to sweep. Because when you
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call up Surrey, you get a bunch of white BC NDP voters answering the calls and saying that they're
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going to be voting for the NDP. But on election night, the conservatives won like three or four
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ridings that nobody assumed they were going to win or assumed that they were going to be much
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tighter races than they really were. Because it turns out, Hindu voters voted conservative
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in large numbers, Hindu voters especially, and then Sikh voters vote conservative at massive rates
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in certain areas if there are big social issues that they oppose from the liberals. And the liberals
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are running on very stupid social policies that make these minority voters get out and vote conservative.
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Hindu voters actually especially are the second most likely group to vote conservative in Canada
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after evangelical Christians. But Indo voters don't take polls. You would have a poll come out
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from Main Street Research or one of the other pollsters where they poll literally 1,500 people.
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And do you know how many South Asian people end up taking that poll? Like 40 or 35. I've seen it
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as low as 15. Because it's just not the culture to go around picking up calls and sitting on the phone
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with some operator asking you how you're going to vote or sitting there waiting for the IVR poll voice
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to tell you which button to hit for what party. And they're not going to sit down for a leger poll.
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And so that is the big conservative advantage. We have more working class support, union support,
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rural support has always been there, but it always tends to be hard to poll. And we have minorities. Plus,
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the conservatives on their side have the effect of the shy conservative voter. And it's always been in
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every election. Very few pollsters ever get the conservatives accurate on the metrics. Because especially now,
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when there's all this propaganda that if you vote conservative, you might as well be some dirty
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Trump Republican or whatever, you get a lot of people who don't want to answer the phone.
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So even if 5%, 7%, 10% of conservatives who are voting conservative pick up the phone,
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they're like, I don't want to tell the person how I'm voting. That swings the entire election.
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And that's what happened in Saskatchewan. In Saskatchewan, the Saskatchewan NDP were at like
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3% above in the polling for the popular vote. Pollsters would have the Saskatchewan party sometimes
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winning by a point or two. But for the most part in the last week, they had the Saskatchewan NDP
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winning from two points to five points. The Saskatchewan party won by 11.7% of the popular vote.
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It's because pollsters often suck at getting people in rural areas, and they suck at polling
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minority voters. And so when we see a lot of these polls, it's not that they're totally inaccurate.
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I find polling can still be informative. Even if it's not accurate, you just kind of keep these
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metrics in your head that in certain areas, they're not going to be very good at polling,
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and they tend to underestimate the conservatives by a few points. You just follow the polls momentum
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to be more instructive of how things are going, rather than following the poll results literally.
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And so based on all that, things are going fine. But what this entire article, this entire series
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of hit pieces and Pauliev's writing are focusing on is crappy polling out of the PC party who hates
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the conservatives. Corey Tanike, again, who's been running down CPC HQ, and I can definitely find
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some flaws with CPC HQ. But everything Corey Tanike says is like the absolute wrong thing the party
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should be doing. So I can have a problem with what the party's doing. But Corey Tanike's like,
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how about we just pour gasoline on the entire issue and set it on fire? I think that will help us
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win. It's ridiculous. And Corey Tanike sits on CBC panels. He is a regular on CBC panels dragging the
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conservatives. And then they tell us in these articles, oh, two of the sources were progressive
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conservative party insiders. And I guarantee if the other two were federal conservatives, they're
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probably also progressive conservatives who are loyal to Doug Ford, because Doug Ford potentially
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wants to run for federal leader of the conservatives. So he's interested in having the conservatives lose.
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He doesn't care about the ideology of it. He's a liberal. He has changed nothing since Kathleen Wynne
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was pushed out of office by him. He's basically changed nothing that Kathleen Wynne was doing.
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By the way, if you guys live in Ontario, please join, sign up for the email list for the new blue
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party of Ontario, because the PC party sucks so bad. I actually endorse a small party option. I am
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not against small parties, but I like small parties that actually work hard and have a reason to exist,
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unlike the PPC. New blue party works hard, has EDAs in every single riding, and they actually have a
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reason to exist because the Ford PCs truly are just not conservative in any way, shape or form.
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Goodness, Sam Oosterhof is wasting his entire career working for Doug Ford. I'm waiting for
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the on the waterfront moment where Sam Oosterhof goes to Doug Ford's house and says, I thought I
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could have been a contender, Doug, because Sam, by his character, would be a great social and fiscal
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conservative. And he's reporting out in favor of NDP policies at the legislature for anti-racism
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training in as a part of the Ontario public education curriculum. My goodness, Sam.
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Find some better people to be around because these people are leading it down the wrong path.
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But yeah, so this is all stupid. I don't think I have to emphasize this anymore.
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Carney probably has a better chance of losing than than Polly does. I've been to the Nepean riding.
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I've been to a liberal part of the historically liberal Nepean riding, and it was tight.
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Were the conservatives winning that poll? No. But the thing is that every riding has the liberal
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area where the liberals win 80% of the vote, and every riding has the conservative area where
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the conservatives win 80% of the vote. We were in an area in Nepean where the conservatives only
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got 18% in 2021. And I would say we probably came away with 30 to 35. Massive improvements.
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And I even heard there were red areas that had flipped entirely blue because of local issues
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that the liberals have completely whiffed on, like crime. But anyway, so that's it for me today,
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guys. Many rant at how stupid the story is. I cannot stand when I see stuff like this come
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out and people start taking it seriously. Who know better? Who know better that this is not real?
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If this was real, the conservatives wouldn't even be putting any money into swing ridings
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because they are already lost. If Carlton was in play, this wouldn't even be an election.
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We would know it's not an election because you and every one of your friends were probably voting
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liberal if Carlton was going down. Anyway, so that's it for me, guys. Make sure to like the video,
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subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, do all that fantastic stuff, and I'll see you guys all later.