The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 26, 2024


Only 12% of Canadians want Trudeau reelected (Record low approval)


Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

201.24681

Word count

2,292

Sentence count

128

Harmful content

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Abacus Data released a new national poll where the Liberals are down 17 points on the Conservatives, and the Conservatives are doing well in all the subregions that the Liberals need to win in order to keep control of the House of Commons.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 I try and only make new polling videos when there's actually something new to report and analyze about the polling.
00:00:05.540 I never want to become one of those creators who makes a video whenever a new poll comes out
00:00:09.820 and pretends to be all shocked and amazed that the Liberals are still down 15 points on the Conservatives.
00:00:14.920 But this week, we actually have a new and exciting poll to talk about.
00:00:18.780 So Abacus Data released a new national poll where the national top line numbers are pretty much what they've been reporting for the last several months.
00:00:26.100 The Liberals are down on the Conservatives by 17 points, and the Conservatives are doing well in all the subregions that they need to be doing well,
00:00:33.340 in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and B.C., all the places where the biggest amount of seats are available for the Conservatives to pick up.
00:00:40.440 That's all great. You don't need to hear me analyze anymore.
00:00:43.440 I want to talk about the numbers a little bit below the surface,
00:00:46.580 because it definitely is true in politics that the top line numbers can always change.
00:00:50.640 A government could be, like, you know, 17 points down on their opposition,
00:00:55.740 but come Election Day, it's tightened up to only 5 points, and they have a chance of winning re-election still.
00:01:01.080 That technically could happen with Justin Trudeau, but when you look at the numbers below the surface,
00:01:06.060 you find out that there is a massive confidence issue inside the Liberal Party's base.
00:01:11.120 A lot of Liberal voters are just deeply apathetic about even keeping Justin Trudeau in power.
00:01:16.100 They might vote for him, they might say they'll vote for him, but are they really that supportive?
00:01:21.360 And when you're having confidence issues in your own base,
00:01:24.220 that means you're not going to be able to do outreach to Canadians who are just not on board with your party right now.
00:01:29.320 That when you're having to fight hard to get half of your base to even show up and vote, that's a problem.
00:01:35.680 But before I get into some of these deeper numbers, I just quickly want to plug the fact that I, Wyatt Claypool,
00:01:41.540 am running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:01:44.420 If you live on the west side of Calgary, check if you live in this riding.
00:01:47.760 These are what the new riding boundaries are going to look like after April when they change.
00:01:51.260 If you live in this area, check out my website, WyattClaypool.com, and buy a Conservative Party membership.
00:01:56.000 If you want an actual Conservative representing a strong Conservative riding,
00:01:59.680 there are like 14 candidates in my riding.
00:02:01.520 Many of them are borderline Trudeau-like, or they don't even live here.
00:02:05.180 Anyways, before I get into the really, really scary number for the Liberals,
00:02:08.860 I just want to talk about Justin Trudeau's approval rating, because this is also something new this week.
00:02:13.640 Justin Trudeau is only at 23% in terms of his approval.
00:02:17.840 He's two points below even having a quarter of Canadians approve of him.
00:02:21.840 And I like the way that Abacus does their approvals, because they don't do somewhat approve,
00:02:26.560 like strongly approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove.
00:02:29.920 I think either you'll like him or not.
00:02:31.540 And 59% of people don't like him, 23% of people do like him.
00:02:35.400 And like I always say in these polling videos, whenever I cover an Abacus poll,
00:02:39.280 notice that Justin Trudeau's approval rating is pretty much in line with the Liberals' polling numbers.
00:02:44.760 Because if you don't like Justin Trudeau, you're not voting Liberal.
00:02:48.140 You can like or dislike Pierre Polyev and still vote for the Conservatives because you like their platform.
00:02:53.160 Same with the NDP, same with the Greens, same with the Bloc Québécois.
00:02:56.360 With Justin Trudeau, if you don't like him, you're not voting for him,
00:02:59.440 because the entire party's policy, the way they operate, the amount of corruption is all stemming from him.
00:03:05.200 There's no like rising star inside the Liberal Party who's, you know, doing some maverick things on policy.
00:03:13.180 They keep pumping up people like Sean Frazier and Chrystia Freeland
00:03:15.940 as being these very competent managers of the government behind the scenes.
00:03:19.740 But they just do what Justin Trudeau wants.
00:03:21.860 So that's why if you like Justin Trudeau, you might vote Liberal.
00:03:24.740 And if you don't like him, you're not voting for them.
00:03:27.500 And that's key what I just said there.
00:03:29.440 If you like Justin Trudeau, you may vote for them.
00:03:31.960 Because even liking Justin Trudeau is becoming not even enough.
00:03:35.360 And this is where the numbers go from scary to like nightmare fuel for the Liberals.
00:03:41.000 Now look at this.
00:03:42.080 I'll start back on the 2019 numbers, because what people will get wrong here is that they'll
00:03:46.640 see that the Liberals have always been unpopular.
00:03:48.820 And while that's true, the Liberals have been deeply unpopular, I'd say at least since 2017,
00:03:54.480 especially around the SNC-Lavalin scandal.
00:03:56.440 Well, they've at least always had a strong base up until the end of the last election.
00:04:01.080 So what you'll see here is the question is a desire for change versus re-electing the
00:04:05.280 Liberals with the questions basically being, do you definitely want them gone?
00:04:09.320 Do you somewhat want them gone, but it's not that important to you?
00:04:11.680 Or do you want to keep them around, but it's not super important?
00:04:14.800 Or do you definitely want the Liberals re-elected?
00:04:17.240 Definitely want the Liberals re-elected has been pretty consistent over the past three
00:04:22.720 times that this was polled.
00:04:24.420 So at the end of the 2019 election, 20% of people definitely wanted the Liberals to stick
00:04:29.160 around.
00:04:29.880 At the start of the 21 election, it was 20%.
00:04:32.560 At the end, it was 19%, probably based on the fact that Justin Trudeau made a lot of
00:04:36.920 gas during that last election.
00:04:38.800 And you might think, well, how is that good polling numbers, 2020 and 19?
00:04:43.240 Well, even though that's not great, which is why Justin Trudeau was only able to achieve
00:04:48.540 a minority government, that at least shows that more than two-thirds of his base were
00:04:53.600 on board for them because the Liberals won 33% of the vote pretty much both in 2019 and
00:04:58.860 21, and 20% of people definitely wanted him re-elected.
00:05:03.880 And so the problem he has now, he only has 12% saying Justin Trudeau and the Liberals should
00:05:08.820 be definitely re-elected.
00:05:10.540 That is horrifying because that means that based on, let's say that the Liberals still
00:05:15.600 need around 35% of the vote in order to win a minority government, 36% because the Conservatives
00:05:21.060 are doing also proportionately better.
00:05:23.080 So the amount of vote the Liberals need to hold on to a minority is higher, that the Liberals
00:05:27.940 only have around a third, a little bit less than a third of what they need in order to
00:05:32.940 stick around.
00:05:34.140 And so then they only have another 10% saying it would be nice to keep Justin Trudeau and
00:05:38.480 the Liberals in government, but it's not important to me.
00:05:40.540 So even if Justin Trudeau gets 100% of the people who are definitely on side and somewhat
00:05:47.480 on side, he still has about a 10 to 13, 14 point gap to fill with voters he does not have
00:05:54.260 any sway with at all.
00:05:56.060 And the Conservatives are working with up to, you know, 59% definitely want them gone and
00:06:01.620 want a changing government.
00:06:02.800 And then there's another 19% that's saying it would be nice.
00:06:05.420 While yes, there are some delusional NDP, Green and Block voters in those two, in those
00:06:11.580 like definitely want change and somewhat want changed categories because there's some NDP
00:06:16.180 voters out there and Greens who actually think their party could win a government or, you
00:06:20.440 know, form government.
00:06:21.580 For the most part, that's Conservatives.
00:06:23.240 So the Conservatives are working with well over half the country to pull voters from.
00:06:28.140 While Justin Trudeau is having a problem even getting his entire base together.
00:06:32.640 He is 12% who will definitely show up for him.
00:06:34.940 Okay, cool.
00:06:36.400 He's still six points back from even getting Michael Gnadyev numbers at 18%.
00:06:40.820 Even if he gets that full 10%, he's now only at 22% of the vote.
00:06:45.040 And even when you look at the national polling for the Liberals, they're at 24%, which means
00:06:49.840 that there is a very reluctant 2% that they're kind of getting on board with this poll.
00:06:55.320 This is horrible.
00:06:56.500 The Liberals have to somehow win people back over from the Conservatives and the NDP.
00:07:03.640 And if you know a lot about the NDP, the NDP has kind of a high floor when it comes to
00:07:09.120 a third party outside of the Conservatives and the Liberals.
00:07:12.240 I think that it would be hard to push the NDP below 13% because they're just hardcore NDP
00:07:17.920 people.
00:07:18.720 There are NDP people who only go to NDP bars, only marry NDP people who only ever donated and
00:07:26.000 voted for the NDP.
00:07:27.280 There is a very cult-like party in a certain sense.
00:07:29.600 So the Liberals are going to have a hard time pulling votes from them.
00:07:32.180 So even if they pull 7% from the NDP, which would be definitely hard because the NDP is
00:07:37.660 actually pulling votes from the Liberals right now.
00:07:39.480 So they'd have to stop the hemorrhaging to the NDP and pull a bunch of people back over.
00:07:44.680 And even then, they would still need about eight or nine points back that they'd have to
00:07:49.060 win from either the Bloc or the Liberals.
00:07:51.340 And right now, the Bloc leader, Yves-Francois Blanchet, is very popular.
00:07:56.640 And the Bloc's agenda is generally popular, especially with the resurgence of the Parti
00:08:00.500 des Québécois provincially in Quebec.
00:08:03.740 Notice I tried to actually put a French accent on that.
00:08:06.100 Oh, I'm so impressed with myself, even though I still pronounced it wrong.
00:08:08.580 I'm sorry.
00:08:09.320 And then Pierre Polyoff is obviously very popular right now, too.
00:08:13.380 The Conservatives in this national poll polled 41%.
00:08:16.980 The Atlantic Canadian is not going back liberal.
00:08:20.300 The Atlantic Canadians are very, they might be a little bit more fiscally to the left, 0.88
00:08:24.740 but they're socially conservative.
00:08:26.380 And after the Liberals start attacking their socially conservative values, these people
00:08:29.720 are not coming back.
00:08:31.140 Are the BC voters going to come back liberal?
00:08:35.000 Well, there's a majority NDP government, which helps the NDP in that province.
00:08:39.560 And again, the Conservatives are doing really well, especially in some of the rural suburban
00:08:43.620 parts of British Columbia.
00:08:45.600 And actually, the Greens are even up in that area.
00:08:48.080 Okay, probably not going to be a great place for the Liberals.
00:08:50.620 And then when you look at Ontario, if you look at the polling, they're losing incumbents
00:08:55.580 scenes by large margins.
00:08:57.020 And I'm talking about incumbents that didn't just win the last election.
00:09:00.160 They won since 2011, 2015.
00:09:03.280 The problem for the Liberals is that all of the problems of the country, even though they
00:09:08.120 try and concentrate so many of the benefits that they're bringing to the economy, quote
00:09:11.700 unquote, bringing really, it's just subsidies, even though they're putting it all into Ontario,
00:09:16.400 the housing issue and immigration is what's killing them there. 0.99
00:09:19.860 While people can't afford to buy houses in British Columbia and Ontario, that's going
00:09:24.380 to be a non-starter for people.
00:09:25.760 Unless he can somehow cut the price of housing in the next year and a half, it's not happening.
00:09:31.780 The Trudeau's defunct on those people.
00:09:34.360 So this 12% statistic, that's probably as good as we're going to see Trudeau in the next
00:09:38.480 year.
00:09:38.780 And this poll is actually, the Liberals were doing a little bit better since the last
00:09:43.040 Abacus data poll.
00:09:44.280 And considering now only 12% of the Liberals base, half of the Liberals, people saying
00:09:48.960 they'll vote Liberal in next election are actually definitely wanting them reelected.
00:09:52.900 It's not happening.
00:09:54.260 You need your entire base on decide.
00:09:55.980 Do you think there's any Conservative voters saying, I'm not sure if I really want the
00:09:59.240 Conservatives to win?
00:09:59.940 No.
00:10:00.580 They want them to win.
00:10:01.600 And that's why they are going to win.
00:10:03.560 But anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:10:05.380 Again, I'm running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:10:09.160 So if you live in this riding, check out my website in the description below, wyattclico.com.
00:10:13.240 Even if you don't live in that riding, you can help fund the campaign and go to the donation
00:10:16.740 section, send a need transfer.
00:10:18.420 But you just have to make sure to provide the extra information that I've mentioned on
00:10:22.740 the how to vote or donate page in the message.
00:10:25.980 So I can actually properly file it with Elections Canada.
00:10:28.120 Or you can also donate to the TNT Legal Fund, which is going on right now.
00:10:32.760 We've had to pay over $25,000 defending ourselves from a billionaire developer suing us for defamation.
00:10:38.840 Defamation he cannot prove.
00:10:40.160 He basically submitted no evidence.
00:10:42.180 And the part of an article where we mentioned him that he's suing over basically just referenced
00:10:47.480 a Globe and Mail article written about him in great detail about all of the connections
00:10:51.020 that he had that were somewhat nefarious or somewhat unsavory.
00:10:55.220 And so his basic argument is that, well, we've been rude to him.
00:10:59.460 So we're going to fight this out.
00:11:00.860 We don't bend to bullies.
00:11:01.960 And if you would help us fund that legal campaign, it helps us out a lot.
00:11:06.460 But other than that, I will see you guys in the future with hopefully more new polls to
00:11:11.880 talk about.
00:11:12.380 I like talking about polls.
00:11:13.680 But again, I don't want to just say, hey, wow, Trudeau's down 17 points.
00:11:17.300 Doesn't he suck?
00:11:18.340 Because that gets very annoying.
00:11:19.800 And I'm not going to turn into Mr. Sunshine Baby anytime soon.