Ontario PCs fall hard in polls after Ford hot mic moment and trade war cancelled
Episode Stats
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Summary
In this episode, I review the polling data from Day 7, 8, and 9 of the Ontario election campaign, and discuss why Doug Ford's chances of re-election are slipping away. I also talk about why the early election call might have backfired on Ford, and why he's in trouble.
Transcript
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Ontario Premier Doug Ford seems to have put himself in a very precarious position.
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He made the gamble that having an early election and justifying it with Trump bad
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was going to allow his PC party to easily cruise to another majority government,
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I made a polling analysis video about four to five days ago
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going over Doug Ford's chances of being re-elected,
00:00:27.620
and back then, I concluded that very likely he was going to get another majority government,
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and in fact, it could be bigger than his 2022 majority.
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Let's just do a bit of a review and look over the first three days of the campaign
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Then I want to look at days seven, eight, and nine.
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Here was day one, and I like to use the charts this early in a campaign that include the undecideds,
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because where they split or how many undecided people there are really tells you how the race is going.
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Jump to day two, you have the PCs still at 32%,
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Day three, now what you see where I was starting to conclude,
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this looks like an Ontario PC race and nobody else's,
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because the PCs had jumped up from their 32% to a 35%,
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and the NDP had fallen significantly from day one from 19 points to 16%.
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Everything was looking really good for Doug Ford,
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including on day seven, which was a day after the entire trade war was called off.
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it makes sense that they were going to expand a little bit,
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because they're clearly the main opposition to Ford in this election,
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these days eight and nine where things start to reverse,
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that kind of flavors why a lot of people might not be voting Doug Ford anymore.
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do you support or oppose the early election call?
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Unfortunately, Main Street seems to have stopped collecting this data on day nine
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but I remember looking at these stats earlier on the election,
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and it was kind of 50-50 whether people supported the early election or not.
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it has basically become a 60-40 if not more than that of a prospect.
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Here, we have 44% of people somewhat or very strongly supporting the early election,
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but 55% of people somewhat opposing or strongly opposing the election.
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Obviously, Ford can still win with 42% of the vote
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Some of the people who support the election might actually be from the opposition parties
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because they want to take a swing at the government whenever they can.
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And a lot of people who might be ticked off might be PC voters saying,
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Why did you tear that up a year and a half early and force us back to the polls?
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And before I move forward now into day eight and nine,
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He is so liberal that Bonnie Crombie and the liberals,
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they are arguing that Ford is the one who was more like Justin Trudeau's liberals than they are.
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Again, they're not conservative, but that's their argument,
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that we're liberals, but we're not Trudeau liberals,
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and in fact, Ford is more of a Trudeau liberal than we are.
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It's very telling, and they're not just saying that.
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please consider voting for the new blue party of Ontario.
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the new blue party of Ontario's views will map on to yours like one-to-one.
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You know, they're a generally socially conservative,
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how about we actually fulfill the promises the PC party made back in 2018,
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and so they started a new party vehicle to do that sort of stuff.
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Anyways, so now I want to move on to day eight and nine,
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that requires a lot of context for, of course, why it ticks people off,
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as well as why is Ford a liar in more ways than one.
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on day seven, or maybe I didn't show day seven,
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and the hot mic moment happened on day five and six,
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although news cycles in Canada take a while to catch up.
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Sometimes you don't have news reports on things until like a day later,
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and so usually there's going to be a bit of a lag.
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From day seven, you have 14% of people undecided.
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And you can see that pound of flesh in terms of support
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in terms of everything they do that's pro-business
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and saying, well, they're the more pro-business party.
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But that is to say that Ford and her equally suck,
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but Ford's supposed to be the one who shouldn't suck
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because he is the progressive conservative leader.
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On top of the fact that the entire election is now moot,
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You can't have all these protect Ontario signs around you,
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protect Ontario workers, protect Ontario business.
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At the same time, there's really nothing to protect them from.
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into a trade war because he thought it was good
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to actually protect Ontarians from a trade war.
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But check out this news report from, I believe, Global.
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It was a candid moment caught on camera Monday.
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One, by the way, do you actually think Doug Ford was happy
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as Kamala Harris's vice presidential candidate,
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Like he just, the only thing he didn't do was endorse,
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But he did everything short of full on endorsing him.
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Do you can still consider yourself a Trump supporter?
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and those two are the most boring people on the planet.
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to keep them straight if I was in the same room.
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Again, go check out the new blue party of Ontario.
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Consider running for the new blue party of Ontario.
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they're going for a full slate of 124 candidates.
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with the type of people voting for Justin Trudeau.
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it's just that that's the disproportionate group
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are like really when it comes to his government.
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That is where there are more than a quarter of people
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and that was a big reverse again from the start