The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 28, 2024


Pathetic： Trudeau Liberals in virtual tie with Jagmeet Singh's NDP


Episode Stats

Length

10 minutes

Words per Minute

189.40996

Word Count

1,940

Sentence Count

105

Misogynist Sentences

1


Summary

Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau are in a virtual tie in the polls, which is bad news for the Liberals. But what does that mean for the rest of the election? Is this a good or bad thing?


Transcript

00:00:00.000 For regular viewers of this channel, this video is going to feel semi-ironic because it was just two videos ago.
00:00:05.840 I said I'm not going to make too many videos on polling, but there's actually something quite new and shocking to report in this new poll from Nanos.
00:00:13.200 This shows that the Liberal Party of Canada under Justin Trudeau is in a virtual tie with Jagmeet Singh's NDP.
00:00:20.900 It just goes to show the absolute corruption and governmental failure of the Liberals to allow the NDP this high up in the polls,
00:00:28.400 despite the fact that the NDP are virtually bankrupt and completely charismaless with Jagmeet Singh at the helm.
00:00:35.200 But this is what the detailed breakdown of the Nanos poll looks like from the Great Canadian Bagel.
00:00:40.820 If you're on X, go follow the Great Canadian Bagel.
00:00:43.260 Chris does a really good job of doing detailed breakdowns of polling.
00:00:46.400 That's his entire purpose of his channel, and he's much better at it than I or anybody else.
00:00:50.740 But the headline national polling numbers between the three major parties was the CPC, the Conservative Party under Paliyev, at 40.8%,
00:01:00.060 the Liberal Party at 23.4%, and the NDP at 22.1%.
00:01:04.900 Yes, the Liberals are still ahead by 1.3%, but you'll notice in this graphic that this poll is rated as having a margin of error of 3.1%.
00:01:15.440 So 1.3% is very much a virtual tie.
00:01:19.560 A gap of only 1% between two major parties, like the Liberals and the NDP, is a virtual tie,
00:01:26.180 because at that point it just breaks down to where their polling happens to be mostly concentrated around the country.
00:01:31.900 And Chris at the Great Canadian Bagel did a further breakdown of that.
00:01:35.540 He doesn't include the Prairies or the Atlantic provinces, because in those areas the Conservatives are so far ahead.
00:01:42.780 The numbers don't really matter.
00:01:45.480 But in Quebec, the Bloc Québécois is at 27.5%.
00:01:49.420 Naturally, they're in the lead as the Quebec Special Interest Party.
00:01:53.080 But the Conservatives are at 25.4%, and the Liberals are at 26.6%.
00:01:57.960 The Quebec is a province where if the Liberals want to do well in the election,
00:02:02.940 need to be almost tied with the Bloc, if not leading the Bloc.
00:02:06.260 The fact that they're now virtually tied with the Conservatives in Quebec is horrible.
00:02:10.460 It's a hard place for the Conservative Party to mine out seats.
00:02:15.600 Their seats are very much in areas where the very more rural or suburban areas where the Bloc wins by massive margins.
00:02:23.280 So for the Conservatives to win, they actually need a very high overall voter turnout for Quebec.
00:02:28.520 Their popular vote numbers have to be very good there for them to be able to claw out 12 seats.
00:02:33.020 Whereas the Liberals, with the slight lead over the Conservatives with their 26.6 rating,
00:02:38.260 they'll still come away with like 20 seats or 18 seats.
00:02:41.300 It's just the way that Quebec works.
00:02:42.860 But that is a terrible statistic still for the Liberals because it's a province where they need to be running up the score, and they are not.
00:02:49.500 And then we have in BC, this one is really bad for both the Liberals and the NDP, if not kind of worse for the NDP,
00:02:57.500 because NDP Premier David Eby is still decently popular in that province, and it's not rubbing off very well for them.
00:03:04.120 So in BC, the Conservatives are at 44.4%.
00:03:07.400 The NDP is at 26.2%.
00:03:09.560 And this is where the Liberals are finding that national tie with the NDP,
00:03:14.080 because the Liberals are way down in third place with only 20.2% of the vote.
00:03:18.780 And then in Ontario, we have the Conservatives at 45.4%, Liberals at 25.6%, and the NDP at 19.9%.
00:03:26.300 Think about that, too.
00:03:27.960 That basically means, because the Liberals' vote is very concentrated in downtown Toronto,
00:03:32.460 and like a couple other sort of mid-sized cities,
00:03:35.540 that pretty much means if you walk five blocks away from the city centre of Toronto,
00:03:40.600 it's just Conservative land after that.
00:03:42.900 And in my last video, I pointed out that when you actually poll Canadians on what outcome they want in the next election,
00:03:49.380 only 12% of them say,
00:03:51.620 I definitely want Justin Trudeau and the Liberals re-elected,
00:03:54.600 and the Liberals in that poll only had 24% of the vote, much like this one, or this one's 23.
00:03:59.880 So that means that literally only half of people planning on voting Conservative,
00:04:05.540 or even, sorry, voting Liberal,
00:04:07.280 even want the Liberals re-elected, like definitely want them re-elected.
00:04:10.880 There was like another 10% who were like,
00:04:12.260 yeah, it wouldn't be bad for them to be re-elected.
00:04:14.720 That is not a winning coalition.
00:04:16.220 When half your coalition is apathetic, that is bad.
00:04:19.960 And the funny thing that we have about this situation,
00:04:23.120 with the NDP right on the Liberals' heels, effectively tied,
00:04:27.100 is that what has Jagmeet Singh done to earn the support?
00:04:30.720 You could say, well, it's because of pharma care,
00:04:32.520 it's because of national dental care,
00:04:33.940 it's because of $10 a day child care that he helped pass or whatever.
00:04:37.280 No, not really.
00:04:38.920 I think Canadians at this point actually aren't that jazzed up about pharma care and dental care.
00:04:43.460 They know all of this is just going to be a massive bloated government boondoggle
00:04:46.980 that the government's effectively trying to, not bribe, it's the reverse of a bribe,
00:04:51.820 effectively extort the pharmaceutical companies as well as dentists
00:04:55.780 for basically cheaper drugs and services for bad governmental sort of reimbursements.
00:05:02.320 That is what always happens with universal systems for anything.
00:05:06.300 It's just that the government comes in as the national insurer of that resource or service,
00:05:11.440 and they basically mandate that doctors, dentists, pharmacists must take
00:05:17.020 under what the market value should be for their products or services,
00:05:21.600 which naturally means that people stop offering those products and services in this country.
00:05:26.640 I think enough Canadians have seen
00:05:28.140 that pattern take place with a bunch of other Justin Trudeau programs,
00:05:32.100 so Jagmeet is not benefiting from these wins.
00:05:35.960 Yes, he keeps his base together, which in a certain sense makes it harder for the liberals
00:05:39.480 to claw away support from the NDP,
00:05:42.080 because many hardcore NDPers think
00:05:44.080 that Jagmeet Singh is moving them towards utopia,
00:05:46.460 even though he is just moving them towards a more bloated and inflated economy in Canada.
00:05:51.940 But Jagmeet Singh is really holding on to the support he does,
00:05:55.640 because he's not Justin Trudeau.
00:05:57.460 It doesn't go any further than that.
00:05:59.220 Jagmeet Singh does not have any charisma.
00:06:01.240 Like, he is the man who flashes his Rolex watch at the camera
00:06:04.460 while he tells you about how great socialism is.
00:06:06.800 He's an incompetent fool.
00:06:08.660 He has lost two times in elections already.
00:06:10.900 He's not going to win this third one.
00:06:12.440 There's a reason why everyone laughs every time Jagmeet Singh says,
00:06:16.160 when I'm prime minister, blah, blah, blah, blah.
00:06:18.620 The thing that makes Jagmeet Singh potentially more appealing
00:06:21.860 to a center-left voter in Canada,
00:06:24.220 and if you look at the polls,
00:06:25.480 there are actually many polls showing
00:06:27.200 more left-of-center Canadians prefer Jagmeet Singh to Trudeau,
00:06:31.220 and it's not because of competence.
00:06:32.720 It's because he's not Justin Trudeau.
00:06:34.540 He does not have the corruption baggage,
00:06:36.500 and he does not have, like, the stink
00:06:38.600 of having presided over the past terrible nine years of Canada.
00:06:42.760 Jagmeet Singh probably would be equally as corrupt
00:06:46.180 as Justin Trudeau in government.
00:06:47.980 Jagmeet Singh's incompetence has just rescued him
00:06:50.380 because he's never actually been able to be
00:06:52.660 in a position of, like, real power.
00:06:55.140 Yes, he's in a minority government situation,
00:06:57.060 but he's often just led around by the nose,
00:06:59.100 but because he's never been in a situation to be corrupt,
00:07:02.360 that gives him the false impression to Canadians
00:07:04.900 that he's not corrupt,
00:07:06.880 and so there are some center-left voters
00:07:08.940 who will shift over to him
00:07:10.420 just to look good in front of their friends.
00:07:12.520 Oh, I'm not voting for that corrupt old,
00:07:14.920 you know, corporatist Justin Trudeau.
00:07:17.000 I'm voting for a real, uncorrupt,
00:07:19.500 bloated government socialist like Jagmeet Singh,
00:07:22.900 not realizing that Jagmeet Singh has been
00:07:25.120 a massive rip-off to his own base.
00:07:27.340 His base loves him, I guess,
00:07:28.980 or they tolerate him,
00:07:31.000 but the man has absolutely bankrupted the NDP.
00:07:34.060 The NDP, if you knew about the story a few years ago,
00:07:36.760 literally had to put, like,
00:07:37.980 take out a loan on their headquarters
00:07:40.100 because of how little money they had
00:07:41.940 under Jagmeet Singh,
00:07:43.180 and even these days,
00:07:43.980 when you look at their fundraising,
00:07:45.560 they raise a little bit more than half
00:07:47.400 of what the liberals do,
00:07:48.340 but that really is only a testament
00:07:49.680 to how little the liberals are fundraising these days.
00:07:52.800 The NDP cannot mount
00:07:53.980 a nationwide election campaign.
00:07:56.640 They really have to pick and choose
00:07:58.100 the ridings that they're seriously going to go after,
00:08:00.300 which suppresses their overall popular vote turnout.
00:08:02.860 So, when I show this,
00:08:04.980 that the liberals and the NDP are in a virtual tie,
00:08:06.960 that's more in an abstract sense.
00:08:08.840 In the minds of center-left Canadians,
00:08:10.700 basically, the toss-up,
00:08:12.360 they could go and vote for either one.
00:08:14.060 The liberals are still going to beat them
00:08:15.720 in the popular vote
00:08:16.520 and definitely the seat count,
00:08:17.860 no doubt,
00:08:18.580 because the liberals have a bigger budget,
00:08:20.320 but the problem is for the liberals
00:08:22.260 is that in people's minds,
00:08:24.060 there is an equal chance
00:08:25.180 they could vote liberal or NDP
00:08:26.440 if they're, you know,
00:08:27.800 decently informed voters
00:08:28.940 who make their own decisions
00:08:29.840 without having to have someone come to their door
00:08:31.660 and, you know,
00:08:32.600 I'm from the liberal party,
00:08:33.780 you better come out and vote for us.
00:08:35.200 If that's,
00:08:36.160 like, so the liberals
00:08:37.540 and the NDP are effectively splitting
00:08:39.740 the dedicated poll-taking center-left vote,
00:08:43.060 and that is a dangerous situation
00:08:44.700 for Justin Trudeau to be in.
00:08:46.640 Anyways,
00:08:47.480 so that should be it for me today.
00:08:48.900 I just want to quickly plug the fact
00:08:50.660 that I, Wyatt Claypool,
00:08:51.920 I'm writing for the Calgary Signal Hill
00:08:53.220 Conservative Party nomination.
00:08:54.920 If you live in Calgary Signal Hill
00:08:56.340 by a Conservative Party membership,
00:08:58.320 check out my website
00:08:59.140 in the description below,
00:09:00.260 wyattclaypool.com,
00:09:01.700 and, you know,
00:09:02.220 let's make sure we actually have a conservative
00:09:03.540 representing a strong conservative riding
00:09:05.300 like Calgary Signal Hill.
00:09:06.780 So many of my competitors
00:09:07.820 are either carpetbaggers
00:09:09.260 or they're not conservative at all,
00:09:10.760 and oftentimes,
00:09:11.580 both of those things
00:09:12.360 are true at the same time.
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00:10:11.720 Anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:10:13.760 Have a great one, everyone.