The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 28, 2024


Pathetic： Trudeau Liberals in virtual tie with Jagmeet Singh's NDP


Episode Stats


Length

10 minutes

Words per minute

189.40996

Word count

1,940

Sentence count

105

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau are in a virtual tie in the polls, which is bad news for the Liberals. But what does that mean for the rest of the election? Is this a good or bad thing?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.000 For regular viewers of this channel, this video is going to feel semi-ironic because it was just two videos ago.
00:00:05.840 I said I'm not going to make too many videos on polling, but there's actually something quite new and shocking to report in this new poll from Nanos.
00:00:13.200 This shows that the Liberal Party of Canada under Justin Trudeau is in a virtual tie with Jagmeet Singh's NDP.
00:00:20.900 It just goes to show the absolute corruption and governmental failure of the Liberals to allow the NDP this high up in the polls,
00:00:28.400 despite the fact that the NDP are virtually bankrupt and completely charismaless with Jagmeet Singh at the helm.
00:00:35.200 But this is what the detailed breakdown of the Nanos poll looks like from the Great Canadian Bagel.
00:00:40.820 If you're on X, go follow the Great Canadian Bagel.
00:00:43.260 Chris does a really good job of doing detailed breakdowns of polling.
00:00:46.400 That's his entire purpose of his channel, and he's much better at it than I or anybody else.
00:00:50.740 But the headline national polling numbers between the three major parties was the CPC, the Conservative Party under Paliyev, at 40.8%,
00:01:00.060 the Liberal Party at 23.4%, and the NDP at 22.1%.
00:01:04.900 Yes, the Liberals are still ahead by 1.3%, but you'll notice in this graphic that this poll is rated as having a margin of error of 3.1%.
00:01:15.440 So 1.3% is very much a virtual tie.
00:01:19.560 A gap of only 1% between two major parties, like the Liberals and the NDP, is a virtual tie,
00:01:26.180 because at that point it just breaks down to where their polling happens to be mostly concentrated around the country.
00:01:31.900 And Chris at the Great Canadian Bagel did a further breakdown of that.
00:01:35.540 He doesn't include the Prairies or the Atlantic provinces, because in those areas the Conservatives are so far ahead.
00:01:42.780 The numbers don't really matter.
00:01:45.480 But in Quebec, the Bloc Québécois is at 27.5%.
00:01:49.420 Naturally, they're in the lead as the Quebec Special Interest Party.
00:01:53.080 But the Conservatives are at 25.4%, and the Liberals are at 26.6%.
00:01:57.960 The Quebec is a province where if the Liberals want to do well in the election,
00:02:02.940 need to be almost tied with the Bloc, if not leading the Bloc.
00:02:06.260 The fact that they're now virtually tied with the Conservatives in Quebec is horrible.
00:02:10.460 It's a hard place for the Conservative Party to mine out seats.
00:02:15.600 Their seats are very much in areas where the very more rural or suburban areas where the Bloc wins by massive margins.
00:02:23.280 So for the Conservatives to win, they actually need a very high overall voter turnout for Quebec.
00:02:28.520 Their popular vote numbers have to be very good there for them to be able to claw out 12 seats.
00:02:33.020 Whereas the Liberals, with the slight lead over the Conservatives with their 26.6 rating,
00:02:38.260 they'll still come away with like 20 seats or 18 seats.
00:02:41.300 It's just the way that Quebec works.
00:02:42.860 But that is a terrible statistic still for the Liberals because it's a province where they need to be running up the score, and they are not.
00:02:49.500 And then we have in BC, this one is really bad for both the Liberals and the NDP, if not kind of worse for the NDP,
00:02:57.500 because NDP Premier David Eby is still decently popular in that province, and it's not rubbing off very well for them.
00:03:04.120 So in BC, the Conservatives are at 44.4%.
00:03:07.400 The NDP is at 26.2%.
00:03:09.560 And this is where the Liberals are finding that national tie with the NDP,
00:03:14.080 because the Liberals are way down in third place with only 20.2% of the vote.
00:03:18.780 And then in Ontario, we have the Conservatives at 45.4%, Liberals at 25.6%, and the NDP at 19.9%.
00:03:26.300 Think about that, too.
00:03:27.960 That basically means, because the Liberals' vote is very concentrated in downtown Toronto,
00:03:32.460 and like a couple other sort of mid-sized cities,
00:03:35.540 that pretty much means if you walk five blocks away from the city centre of Toronto,
00:03:40.600 it's just Conservative land after that.
00:03:42.900 And in my last video, I pointed out that when you actually poll Canadians on what outcome they want in the next election,
00:03:49.380 only 12% of them say,
00:03:51.620 I definitely want Justin Trudeau and the Liberals re-elected,
00:03:54.600 and the Liberals in that poll only had 24% of the vote, much like this one, or this one's 23.
00:03:59.880 So that means that literally only half of people planning on voting Conservative,
00:04:05.540 or even, sorry, voting Liberal,
00:04:07.280 even want the Liberals re-elected, like definitely want them re-elected.
00:04:10.880 There was like another 10% who were like,
00:04:12.260 yeah, it wouldn't be bad for them to be re-elected.
00:04:14.720 That is not a winning coalition.
00:04:16.220 When half your coalition is apathetic, that is bad.
00:04:19.960 And the funny thing that we have about this situation,
00:04:23.120 with the NDP right on the Liberals' heels, effectively tied,
00:04:27.100 is that what has Jagmeet Singh done to earn the support?
00:04:30.720 You could say, well, it's because of pharma care,
00:04:32.520 it's because of national dental care,
00:04:33.940 it's because of $10 a day child care that he helped pass or whatever.
00:04:37.280 No, not really.
00:04:38.920 I think Canadians at this point actually aren't that jazzed up about pharma care and dental care.
00:04:43.460 They know all of this is just going to be a massive bloated government boondoggle
00:04:46.980 that the government's effectively trying to, not bribe, it's the reverse of a bribe,
00:04:51.820 effectively extort the pharmaceutical companies as well as dentists
00:04:55.780 for basically cheaper drugs and services for bad governmental sort of reimbursements.
00:05:02.320 That is what always happens with universal systems for anything.
00:05:06.300 It's just that the government comes in as the national insurer of that resource or service,
00:05:11.440 and they basically mandate that doctors, dentists, pharmacists must take
00:05:17.020 under what the market value should be for their products or services,
00:05:21.600 which naturally means that people stop offering those products and services in this country.
00:05:26.640 I think enough Canadians have seen
00:05:28.140 that pattern take place with a bunch of other Justin Trudeau programs,
00:05:32.100 so Jagmeet is not benefiting from these wins.
00:05:35.960 Yes, he keeps his base together, which in a certain sense makes it harder for the liberals
00:05:39.480 to claw away support from the NDP,
00:05:42.080 because many hardcore NDPers think
00:05:44.080 that Jagmeet Singh is moving them towards utopia,
00:05:46.460 even though he is just moving them towards a more bloated and inflated economy in Canada.
00:05:51.940 But Jagmeet Singh is really holding on to the support he does,
00:05:55.640 because he's not Justin Trudeau.
00:05:57.460 It doesn't go any further than that.
00:05:59.220 Jagmeet Singh does not have any charisma.
00:06:01.240 Like, he is the man who flashes his Rolex watch at the camera
00:06:04.460 while he tells you about how great socialism is.
00:06:06.800 He's an incompetent fool.
00:06:08.660 He has lost two times in elections already.
00:06:10.900 He's not going to win this third one.
00:06:12.440 There's a reason why everyone laughs every time Jagmeet Singh says,
00:06:16.160 when I'm prime minister, blah, blah, blah, blah.
00:06:18.620 The thing that makes Jagmeet Singh potentially more appealing
00:06:21.860 to a center-left voter in Canada,
00:06:24.220 and if you look at the polls,
00:06:25.480 there are actually many polls showing
00:06:27.200 more left-of-center Canadians prefer Jagmeet Singh to Trudeau,
00:06:31.220 and it's not because of competence.
00:06:32.720 It's because he's not Justin Trudeau.
00:06:34.540 He does not have the corruption baggage,
00:06:36.500 and he does not have, like, the stink
00:06:38.600 of having presided over the past terrible nine years of Canada.
00:06:42.760 Jagmeet Singh probably would be equally as corrupt
00:06:46.180 as Justin Trudeau in government.
00:06:47.980 Jagmeet Singh's incompetence has just rescued him
00:06:50.380 because he's never actually been able to be
00:06:52.660 in a position of, like, real power.
00:06:55.140 Yes, he's in a minority government situation,
00:06:57.060 but he's often just led around by the nose,
00:06:59.100 but because he's never been in a situation to be corrupt,
00:07:02.360 that gives him the false impression to Canadians
00:07:04.900 that he's not corrupt,
00:07:06.880 and so there are some center-left voters
00:07:08.940 who will shift over to him
00:07:10.420 just to look good in front of their friends.
00:07:12.520 Oh, I'm not voting for that corrupt old,
00:07:14.920 you know, corporatist Justin Trudeau.
00:07:17.000 I'm voting for a real, uncorrupt,
00:07:19.500 bloated government socialist like Jagmeet Singh,
00:07:22.900 not realizing that Jagmeet Singh has been
00:07:25.120 a massive rip-off to his own base.
00:07:27.340 His base loves him, I guess,
00:07:28.980 or they tolerate him,
00:07:31.000 but the man has absolutely bankrupted the NDP.
00:07:34.060 The NDP, if you knew about the story a few years ago,
00:07:36.760 literally had to put, like,
00:07:37.980 take out a loan on their headquarters
00:07:40.100 because of how little money they had
00:07:41.940 under Jagmeet Singh,
00:07:43.180 and even these days,
00:07:43.980 when you look at their fundraising,
00:07:45.560 they raise a little bit more than half
00:07:47.400 of what the liberals do,
00:07:48.340 but that really is only a testament
00:07:49.680 to how little the liberals are fundraising these days.
00:07:52.800 The NDP cannot mount
00:07:53.980 a nationwide election campaign.
00:07:56.640 They really have to pick and choose
00:07:58.100 the ridings that they're seriously going to go after,
00:08:00.300 which suppresses their overall popular vote turnout.
00:08:02.860 So, when I show this,
00:08:04.980 that the liberals and the NDP are in a virtual tie,
00:08:06.960 that's more in an abstract sense.
00:08:08.840 In the minds of center-left Canadians,
00:08:10.700 basically, the toss-up,
00:08:12.360 they could go and vote for either one.
00:08:14.060 The liberals are still going to beat them
00:08:15.720 in the popular vote
00:08:16.520 and definitely the seat count,
00:08:17.860 no doubt,
00:08:18.580 because the liberals have a bigger budget,
00:08:20.320 but the problem is for the liberals
00:08:22.260 is that in people's minds,
00:08:24.060 there is an equal chance
00:08:25.180 they could vote liberal or NDP
00:08:26.440 if they're, you know,
00:08:27.800 decently informed voters
00:08:28.940 who make their own decisions
00:08:29.840 without having to have someone come to their door
00:08:31.660 and, you know,
00:08:32.600 I'm from the liberal party,
00:08:33.780 you better come out and vote for us.
00:08:35.200 If that's,
00:08:36.160 like, so the liberals
00:08:37.540 and the NDP are effectively splitting
00:08:39.740 the dedicated poll-taking center-left vote,
00:08:43.060 and that is a dangerous situation
00:08:44.700 for Justin Trudeau to be in.
00:08:46.640 Anyways,
00:08:47.480 so that should be it for me today.
00:08:48.900 I just want to quickly plug the fact
00:08:50.660 that I, Wyatt Claypool,
00:08:51.920 I'm writing for the Calgary Signal Hill
00:08:53.220 Conservative Party nomination.
00:08:54.920 If you live in Calgary Signal Hill
00:08:56.340 by a Conservative Party membership,
00:08:58.320 check out my website
00:08:59.140 in the description below,
00:09:00.260 wyattclaypool.com,
00:09:01.700 and, you know,
00:09:02.220 let's make sure we actually have a conservative 0.88
00:09:03.540 representing a strong conservative riding
00:09:05.300 like Calgary Signal Hill.
00:09:06.780 So many of my competitors
00:09:07.820 are either carpetbaggers
00:09:09.260 or they're not conservative at all,
00:09:10.760 and oftentimes,
00:09:11.580 both of those things
00:09:12.360 are true at the same time.
00:09:14.360 And then, anyways,
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00:10:11.720 Anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:10:13.760 Have a great one, everyone.