The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Pierre is back？ Liberal approval starts to fall while CPC rises

00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. We are back on the whiteboard today breaking down another Canadian

00:00:07.200 national poll, this one from Abacus Data that I believe tells a story about where Canadian

00:00:13.480 politics are going to go over the next few months. I want to go over what I believe that story is in

00:00:20.020 just a moment, but I want to remind you if you like these breakdown videos make sure to leave

00:00:24.540 a like on the video, subscribe if you are not yet a subscriber, and leave a comment about what

00:00:29.980 you think about the current state of Canadian politics. I like to scroll through and see what

00:00:33.780 people are saying, and selfishly enough it also benefits me if you comment since it helps us on

00:00:38.640 the algorithm, but I do genuinely like to scroll through a few times. The story I think is currently

00:00:43.640 going on in Canadian politics is that while Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal government

00:00:48.600 are still in a honeymoon period where people are willing to give them the benefit of the doubt

00:00:54.020 and say they approve of Carney and his government because, well, they're only a few months in,

00:00:59.000 let's give them a shot. Carney is actually having his approval rating slip a little bit. His

00:01:05.100 government's approval rating is starting to stagnate. They are not making gains with Canadians despite

00:01:10.640 acting like they are getting a lot of stuff done. They are just not actually getting much done,

00:01:16.120 and to a lot of Canadians who were willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, it's already feeling

00:01:20.940 like just another Liberal government. And they've always kind of been on thin ice that way. If they

00:01:26.960 don't start delivering big policy wins, they will have a lot of people just go back to thinking

00:01:32.900 about them the way they thought about Justin Trudeau's Liberal government, maybe not in late 2024,

00:01:38.680 but maybe in like, you know, mid-2022 or even early 2023. Their polling was not great, but it wasn't

00:01:47.280 terrible either. And that's not exactly a great position for Mark Carney to be in when he's supposed

00:01:52.440 to be so much different. And he's supposed to revive the Liberals' electoral chances. Now he did

00:01:57.940 in the 2025 federal election, but there was a lot of factors going in favor of the Liberals in that

00:02:03.300 election that don't really apply to any future races that they're in. You know, they had the trade

00:02:09.500 crisis with Donald Trump that they've already fumbled. They had Justin Trudeau being swapped out with

00:02:14.300 someone who's boring and could say that he is totally different. And they were running on a bold

00:02:19.500 platform to deviate policy, which they really haven't. And now the other side of the story is

00:02:25.640 that while federal conservative party leader Pierre Polyev is not in parliament, I believe the date is

00:02:31.460 August 18th, he will be elected as the new MP for the riding of Battle River Crowfoot. Now we will see

00:02:38.500 what percentage of the vote he gets in that by-election. I don't really see it as a big deal if he

00:02:43.500 doesn't come in at the exact number that Damien Kirk got. Damien Kirk got 86%. But by-election

00:02:50.480 turnouts are always a little bit odd. So even if he gets like 68% or 72%, it's perfectly fine. He just

00:02:57.280 needs a seat and it's not really going to have any effect. If he comes in like below 65%, 64%, maybe

00:03:03.260 that's going to have implications over his leadership review. Even then that's a bit of a dicey kind of

00:03:09.560 prediction to make that if he comes in under a certain amount, he's going to be dead as the party's

00:03:13.940 leader. I think a lot of people know that this is just basically a job to get him into parliament and

00:03:18.460 that's it. Some people might not like that he's running there. It doesn't really matter. He's not

00:03:22.820 even going to run there after this by-election. Damien Kirk's going to be coming back. But once

00:03:27.900 Polyev is back, I think what you're going to see with the liberals is that Polyev's approval rating is

00:03:32.980 going to rise as people are seeing new content from him in parliament, as he's able to actually

00:03:37.920 credibly speak as the leader. And what is already not a great lead for the liberals could get worse.

00:03:44.220 Now, this abacus data poll going to the whiteboard is only showing the liberals leading by three

00:03:50.320 points. I do genuinely believe that the liberals are probably more so leading by anywhere from five

00:03:57.080 to six points. They are in their honeymoon. I find that abacus just tends to be a little bit more

00:04:02.460 bearish with incumbents. Nanos polling is complete nonsense right now. They're showing the liberals

00:04:09.040 have like a 14-point lead and the conservatives crashed all the way down to just 32 percent and

00:04:15.520 the liberals are like 45 or 47. That's just not how public approval ratings work. Nanos wasn't

00:04:21.820 inaccurate in the last election, but if you assumed that their polling numbers were like gospel truth,

00:04:27.460 it would have indicated the liberals would win like 190 seats or so and they didn't get the

00:04:33.260 majority that they wanted. Nanos, while they basically showed a tie before election day,

00:04:38.000 that was closer than what Nanos was showing, which was the conservatives only getting 39 percent of the

00:04:42.740 vote when in fact they got 41 and a half and the liberals didn't do. I think they basically got what

00:04:48.880 Nanos said. But again, the difference between the conservatives being a couple points down,

00:04:54.040 a couple points up, really does matter when it was only a two-horse race. NDP still not doing so hot,

00:05:00.760 but let's just talk about what this poll is currently telling us. The liberals, 43 percent,

00:05:06.280 effectively maintaining what they had. Conservatives, 40 percent, a little bit of a drop back. And if an

00:05:12.640 election was to be held today, while yes, I believe that this would result in a liberal majority,

00:05:19.300 it's not exactly a very safe number to be at for them. And when you actually look at the regional

00:05:26.260 numbers, which I'll put on the board later, a lot of what's hurting the conservatives is just a little

00:05:31.600 bit of a fallback on Ontario and a little bit of a fallback in British Columbia. But these are not

00:05:37.500 exactly numbers that I believe are going to stay steady. So they're effectively in a tie because this

00:05:44.240 poll comes with about a two and a half point plus or minus margin of error. But now what I want to do

00:05:50.500 is jump into the approval ratings of both Carney, the government, and Pierre Polyev. Because this

00:05:56.820 number is technically stagnant from Abacus's previous number. But the big thing we're seeing a shift in

00:06:03.120 is people's willingness to think that Mark Carney is doing a good job or that the liberal government

00:06:08.980 has solutions to the current trade crisis that we're in, and what is now turning into a job

00:06:14.740 crisis with 41,000 jobs being lost in the month of July alone. So here we have the liberal government's

00:06:25.040 approval between the month of May and now August. And I will point out that the August poll was done

00:06:32.320 on August 4th, which doesn't actually leave that much time for Canadians to adjust to the new reality

00:06:38.020 that Mark Carney's liberal government did not actually get a trade deal signed with the Trump

00:06:42.960 administration in the United States, which was a keystone platform of both Carney's leadership,

00:06:49.160 race, as well as the general election. And that will hurt him. I know many Canadians will be

00:06:54.140 predisposed to just saying, if we didn't get a deal done, it's probably Trump's and the Americans' fault.

00:06:59.180 But people who start having, you know, to pay higher prices, not just because of the tariffs,

00:07:04.240 but because of the cost of becoming USMCA compliant in order to go duty free to not pay the tariffs,

00:07:10.640 people are going to start saying that, you know, maybe he lied to us saying that he knew how to deal

00:07:15.020 with people like Donald Trump. But back in May, the approval rating of the government was 53 and the

00:07:20.660 disapproval rating was 23. That's a pretty good rating. Anyone in Canadian politics would kill to be above

00:07:27.320 50% on their approval. And in August, he's still at 50. But we've also had the disapproval jump up by 27%.

00:07:37.080 And then you will also see in the underlying poll that undecided since around June or July have also

00:07:43.360 increased as well. So a lot of undecideds before moved from, you know, beforehand, a lot of people

00:07:50.280 moved from undecided to disapproval. And a lot of people have moved from approval to undecided,

00:07:56.300 this being a six point swing since May. So of course, you've gone down by three, and then you

00:08:03.660 in terms of the approval, and you've gone up by three in terms of the disapproval. And when you follow

00:08:10.260 one pollster month after month, that has a stable methodology for how they do polling, this does

00:08:17.580 matter. And again, I find abacus to be a very bearish kind of a pollster. They don't have samples

00:08:23.500 that go all over the place. The problem with a pollster like Nanos is that they don't often

00:08:28.960 balance for who you voted for last election. So what will happen? I guess they sometimes do that,

00:08:35.040 but I've just not detected in their data. You'll have a lot of people who voted liberal last time

00:08:39.440 saying they're going to vote liberal next time. And it seems like there's a big public approval shift,

00:08:43.160 or a big like national polling shift. It's not you're just happening to pull a lot of

00:08:48.020 partisan liberals who voted liberal last time. Real national polling shifts should show that

00:08:53.740 you pull the exact ratio of people who voted conservative, liberal, NDP, block, green from

00:09:00.500 last time. And you see where some of those voters are now moving their votes to, including people who

00:09:05.700 didn't vote. How would they vote if they did turn up this next time? And so abacus with their very

00:09:11.140 stable polling methodology has seen the approval rating since May fall a bit. People seeing that,

00:09:17.220 you know, Bill C5 doesn't really do anything. They're not really doing that good when it comes

00:09:21.680 to trade negotiations. But our Carney is starting to slip back into a lot of the, well, why should I

00:09:27.580 type rhetoric that the liberals have around pipelines? You know, we approve of pipelines,

00:09:32.220 but you know, well, why should I if First Nations don't want it? Or why should we actually approve it

00:09:37.180 if we can't get the provinces on board? Carney's playing games, pretending like he's in favor of

00:09:42.000 pipelines while making every excuse and outsourcing, saying no to new pipeline projects to whoever he

00:09:48.060 can find around him. Now, again, this doesn't mean like if an election was held today, they're in

00:09:52.840 trouble. These are fine approval ratings. But considering that he's in his honeymoon period,

00:09:57.520 and he's already lost three approval points, and his disapproval has gone up three, it's kind of

00:10:02.160 showing where we might be in three months when we have Polly of back in parliament, and we have the

00:10:07.480 conservatives every day in parliament being able to call out liberal failures, including the NDP as

00:10:13.240 well, because the liberals are walking this very strange tightrope, where at the same time, they are

00:10:18.100 spending us into probably at the end of the year was going to be a $100 billion deficit. They're also

00:10:24.140 proposing cutting certain civil servants, which is ticking off unions and also bolstering the popularity

00:10:30.220 of the NDP. The NDP should not be popular at all. So Carney's giving them a free win at the same time

00:10:36.620 he's not even being fiscally responsible. So he's doing the worst of both worlds type things. Really,

00:10:42.420 what he's going to do is end up firing a bunch of public sector union workers in favor of new

00:10:48.280 consultants, which is kind of a bit of a slap in the face to everybody. Taxpayers wanting actual fiscal

00:10:55.120 efficiency, as well as those union employees who may have voted liberal this last election,

00:11:00.340 and will shift back NDP. But now I want to move over to Carney's approval, then we will jump to

00:11:06.080 Pierre's. It's a similar story, but I think it's worth looking at. Now we're on to Prime Minister

00:11:12.480 Mark Carney's approval. And immediately what I find kind of odd between his May and August numbers is

00:11:19.420 you will notice that Mark Carney is actually less popular than the liberal government. It tends to

00:11:24.440 actually work the other way around. And I think it's because Carney just fundamentally lacks a

00:11:28.720 certain level of charisma that typically a charismatic leader is always more popular than

00:11:33.820 the government because the government's the cold institution that the politician leads.

00:11:39.720 But Mark Carney in May, when the government approval rating was 53%, he was at a 51. And right now the

00:11:46.880 government's approval in August is 50, but he's only a 48. His disapproval in May, back when

00:11:53.540 the government's disapproval was 23, was 27, which is the current government disapproval rating. But that

00:11:59.320 one has gone up to 29. So we are again seeing a shift in a similar direction with Carney's approval

00:12:07.040 rating having fallen by three points again, and the disapproval rating having gone up by two. So we are

00:12:14.280 seeing a swing by five. But again, what's happening, it's not that people go from approval to disapproval,

00:12:21.400 people go from approval to unsure and unsure to disapproval. So we had a lot of people who were

00:12:28.160 not sure about him and willing to give him a chance and pulling out their judgment now saying,

00:12:33.060 okay, yeah, he's not the man for the job. And we're having people who approved of him not really

00:12:37.020 knowing what to think now that there hasn't been big policy wins as the guy who said he was the man

00:12:42.540 with the plan who now no longer even has a plan, apparently no budget, a bill C5 that he's already

00:12:48.720 gutted all the teeth from saying that we're going to get stuff done. But not if all these groups

00:12:53.480 protest me, we're not going to get it done anymore. I'm only going to get stuff done if everyone has

00:12:57.600 consensus, which is impossible in a country of 41 million people. Now I've heard the rumor that

00:13:04.400 Carney and the liberals in order to stave off negative talking points from the conservatives are

00:13:09.900 going to try and hammer through at least one pipeline. But the problem is, again, they are very much

00:13:15.860 trying to like Carney sitting between a cliff gap with his feet on both edge of two different cliffs

00:13:21.860 trying to bridge the gap for his base. Now, he has been playing to the environmental crowd quite a bit

00:13:28.680 and fear mongering about the conservatives knocking away all the environmental regulations and

00:13:33.740 restrictions and hammering stuff through without the approval of First Nations and without any mind to

00:13:39.620 the environment. But now he might end up doing that while also making that project probably bloated on

00:13:45.680 spending and sluggish because he still wants to sit down for all the consultations. But he's also

00:13:50.820 not pleasing the environmental activists and the reconciliation activists who don't want these

00:13:55.780 projects done at all. So what you're going to see is probably a lot of, again, maybe traditionally

00:14:01.460 conservative people who are willing to vote liberal this last election saying, well, he's not getting

00:14:06.140 anything done and they'll shift back conservative and all these progressive activists who are not pleased

00:14:10.380 with him are going to shift back in DP. A great microcosm of this is the Palestine issue. Carney,

00:14:17.020 for some reason, decided that acknowledging a terror state was going to be a big policy win for him.

00:14:22.960 And now he's even having to walk it back and apologize and recognize that a Jewish man was just viciously

00:14:28.000 attacked on the streets of Montreal. He's a foreign affairs minister still being protested by the pro

00:14:32.960 Hamas people on the streets. It's been a big policy failure. He looks stupid. He's alienating the Jewish

00:14:40.560 community or anyone who's pro-Israel in Canada who was voting liberal previously. And the people that he's

00:14:47.000 trying to pander to, the pro-Hamas people, are not even happy with him because they are left-wing insane

00:14:53.920 people who are never satisfied with anything because their ideology is intifada. It's not, you know,

00:15:00.240 recognition. Can you recognize Palestine, the terror state run by Hamas and Fatah? Can you please do

00:15:06.180 that for us? They don't care. They'll say they want it and then they'll be dissatisfied once you give it

00:15:10.400 to them because they will push where there's mush and Mark Carney's government is very mushy right now.

00:15:16.160 He's not willing to walk back his Palestinian recognition, but he's also now trying to pander to

00:15:21.520 the, when I say pander, it's technically the right thing to do, but now he's trying to, like,

00:15:25.820 combat the anti-Semitism that he and people like Olivia Chow and Yodi Gondek and whatnot have been

00:15:31.000 enabling. But it's just ticking off everyone in a new and unique way, shifting voters to the

00:15:36.880 conservatives in the GTA area who don't like the anti-Semitism and all over Canada making sure that

00:15:42.580 all the left-wing activists still hate his guts and may shift to the NDP when they put in a pro-Hamas

00:15:48.220 Nick like Heather McPherson as their new leader. But now let's move on to Mr. Pierre Polyev's

00:15:56.180 approval, which has actually been improving despite being out of Parliament. So now we have the approval

00:16:04.440 rating for Pierre Polyev. Sorry if the pause is in this or a bit jarring. The funny thing is I actually

00:16:09.840 do film this fully live. All I do is hit pause on the recording and then I hit restart. There's literally

00:16:14.760 no editing to this at all other than my own manual editing on the fly. But this is actually the most

00:16:21.220 stark difference between the May Abacus data polling and now the August polling. Polyev only had a 39%

00:16:29.620 approval rating in August and that was contrasted with his 44% disapproval rating. So taking out all the

00:16:38.920 like all the people who have no opinion, they're undecided, he was negative five points on his

00:16:45.120 approval. But since then, we have had Polyev's approval rating increase and his disapproval rating

00:16:53.080 has decreased, which is obviously the reverse of what's happening to Mark Carney and his liberal

00:16:59.640 government. We had his disapproval rating go from 44 to 41 and his approval rating go from 39 to 42.

00:17:07.900 So he's gained three and he's lost three, which is a six point swing, much like the liberal government,

00:17:14.420 but in the right direction, with him now having at least a 1% net approval rating. It's positive,

00:17:22.120 it's not great, but considering that during the election, Polyev was actually fighting negative

00:17:26.840 approval ratings, it's not bad that when he's not even in government yet, he's not even, he doesn't

00:17:32.580 have a seat yet back in government, he currently at least is gaining in the approval ratings.

00:17:37.900 Part of it is actually what I would consider the hustle factor. I think since losing,

00:17:44.360 usually you get a lot of people thinking, he has the stench of losing on him. Do I really like him?

00:17:50.000 Do I really like a man who lost an election? And what happens to previous leaders is they become

00:17:55.120 insular. You don't see them as much. They make very stiff statements. This is very much what I

00:18:00.320 thought of Aaron O'Toole after he lost in 21. I never liked Aaron O'Toole in the first place, but

00:18:06.020 it became reclusive. He sort of took all of his loyalists around him and basically duct taped them

00:18:12.740 to himself for protection. And then eventually the Conservative Party using the Reform Act ended up

00:18:18.260 basically ousting him during the convoy when he couldn't actually support, you know, the basic right

00:18:23.480 to be able to move freely without having a vaccination that was entirely medically unnecessary.

00:18:29.360 And I even say this as for someone who's like vaccinated, but I can tell you it's entirely

00:18:33.600 medically unnecessary, at least when it comes to COVID. Other things, you know, other things you

00:18:39.020 might need to be in vaccination for. I don't want to get all political or nothing on this political show.

00:18:43.680 But what Polioff has been doing in the Battle of Crowfoot by-election, especially recently,

00:18:49.600 because I heard that there was some criticism that he wasn't out in Battle River Crowfoot enough,

00:18:54.020 since that criticism kind of cropped up around Stampede, he's been out there. I had somebody

00:18:59.020 in my own church approve of the fact that he's actually been in two, and I believe it was three

00:19:04.580 hills, now two or three times, which they were quite impressed by because it's a big riding with a lot

00:19:10.620 of municipalities in it. And not that Polioff running around in Battle of Crowfoot and gaining

00:19:17.040 the approval of locals is what's causing this macro shift, but it's just the general perception

00:19:22.220 that Pierre's back, that Pierre's actually, you know, around, and he's doing things. He's not

00:19:27.760 sitting around his office, sending memos back and forth to people, telling people to shut up,

00:19:32.060 don't say that. And he's actually hardened on his policies. The immigration stance he now has of

00:19:37.460 saying we want net negative migration. It's not saying negative population growth. It's saying

00:19:42.560 that of the people coming in and out of the country who are not citizens, we want more people

00:19:47.660 leaving than coming in. Obviously, population growth through, you know, the natural birth rate

00:19:52.700 is perfectly fine, but we don't want the population being pumped up by people just simply coming here

00:19:58.960 on a fake student visa or for a low-wage job or bringing in parents on a new chain migration thing

00:20:06.520 that the liberals are pitching. We want people who have skills or we don't really need them because

00:20:11.800 it's hurting the housing market. It's just destroying young people's job prospects. We need

00:20:17.760 it reversing the other direction. And then the Sovereignty Act that the conservatives are pushing

00:20:23.100 is a good way of kind of repackaging all the election promises the conservatives had made

00:20:27.620 and turning it into a piece of legislation that they are going to put forward a motion on and demand the

00:20:33.160 liberals vote for it, which would get rid of things like all the anti-pipeline and energy laws,

00:20:38.380 Bill C-69, Bill C-48, getting rid of the single-use plastic bans, a lot of that sort of thing. Some of

00:20:44.040 the stuff is a little bit disconnected from each other, but it's a good way of basically putting

00:20:48.180 forward a package that if you ask Canadians about the separate parts of it, they'd probably say it's

00:20:52.900 a good idea, and forcing the liberals to say no. If I was a conservative advisor right now,

00:20:58.040 I would say to constantly have motions on popular policies and make the liberals say no. Say let's

00:21:05.260 have a 20%, at least a 15% across the board tax cut, every bracket, corporate taxes, let's reduce

00:21:12.660 the GST from five to four, let's do all of that stuff in order to get the economy kick-started so we

00:21:18.420 can out-compete the Americans. And let the liberals say no to that, say no to prosperity, and then you

00:21:24.180 can go back at them and say, I thought we were supposed to be elbows up. I thought we were wanting

00:21:28.300 to bolster Canada's economy, but you don't actually want to do anything to give people back their own

00:21:33.100 money. That's what you should do. But so far, his rhetoric and his policy stances have been giving

00:21:38.920 him dividends, because if Polyev and a lot of his immigration stuff has started to be said as of like

00:21:44.440 a month and a half ago, if it was unpopular, we would have seen the media reaction and people saying

00:21:50.760 that he's being, you know, a right-wing bigot or whatever, xenophobic, we would have seen that play

00:21:56.900 into a disapproval raise and an approval rating fall if that was truly the attitude of the general

00:22:02.780 Canadian population. It isn't. The general Canadian population is very anti-immigration right now,

00:22:08.780 because the immigration policy in this country for the last decade has been garbage. And so opposing

00:22:14.260 that will naturally pay dividends for you. I think that Polyev pushing for spending reform,

00:22:20.820 actually identifying large areas of spending and saying we should cut this, and again, putting in

00:22:26.200 the liberals' face, hey, hey, $5 billion spent on this nonsense, cut it. We'll put forward a motion

00:22:31.480 saying that you guys should cut it. And then have the liberals saying they want to make government

00:22:35.580 more efficient have to eat the fact that they're unwilling to actually do anything serious to be more

00:22:39.980 efficient. They just put out vague mandates about how they're going to spend less than three years

00:22:44.240 or so, and something that Mark Carney never actually has to achieve because he'll probably

00:22:48.560 want to call an election before that time. But anyways, so I just want to do one last thing in

00:22:54.880 this video, and it just highlights some of the regional issues, both on the approval rating side

00:23:00.060 of stuff, as well as the national polling for the parties. Again, hopefully you'll like this sort of

00:23:04.900 thing, and if you do, like the video, subscribe, leave a comment. But let me pause, let me clean up the

00:23:10.580 whiteboard and show you a couple last things. So I'm going to freestyle the section a bit, but I just

00:23:17.080 want to show you some of the miscellaneous points of interest in the polling. So when I told you that

00:23:24.140 Pierre Polyev had a plus one approval rating in Canada, that also has to be tempered with the fact

00:23:31.340 that most of his disapproval rating is coming from one province. In fact, he actually is at even or has a

00:23:38.480 positive rating everywhere, except I'll just put over here Pierre Polyev. His approval rating, for

00:23:45.280 example, in like Alberta is plus 28%, which is great. But in, you know, Quebec, his approval rating

00:23:55.920 is negative 21%, which isn't fantastic. But the difference is, is that that's not really a province

00:24:04.360 where he needs a great approval rating. And now let's get over here with Mark Carney. And Mark Carney,

00:24:11.160 his approval rating is obviously higher than Polyev's. But when you actually look at it, it's also

00:24:16.940 kind of a similar situation. So over here, Pierre Polyev had a plus one overall percent. And Mark Carney's

00:24:24.560 overall approval rating was plus 19% still. Again, naturally, he is in a honeymoon period. But his

00:24:33.680 Alberta approval rating is currently negative 11%. But his Quebec approval rating is, this is crazy,

00:24:47.560 is plus 41%. It would, with a plus 41%, I don't think I have to tell you, it's difficult to find

00:24:56.640 someone in that province who doesn't like the man. And so when he has a plus 29, it's because he's

00:25:04.140 popular in Quebec. But I will also point out that in the national polling, the Bloc Québécois still had

00:25:10.980 about 6.5%. So if an election was held tomorrow, the Liberals may gain a seat. They may even lose a

00:25:18.740 seat in Quebec. It's pretty much at even where it was at back in April. And so a lot of Mr. Carney's

00:25:26.580 approval rating is being soaked up in Quebec. And a lot of Polyev's disapproval rating is also being

00:25:32.400 soaked up in Quebec, a province where basically neither party has anything to gain. The Conservatives

00:25:38.800 have about 10 seats they win every election. It's usually along the border with Ontario or with

00:25:45.160 not Ontario, but with like the US is the ones close to like Maine and Vermont and whatnot. They tend to

00:25:51.080 be more pro free market ridings. Like Maxime Bernier was the MP for Bose for a reason. It's a very pro free

00:25:59.980 market riding. It's actually a riding that despite being in Quebec is not in favor of supply management.

00:26:05.740 It's a very, again, free enterprising kind of a place. It's not really like other more rural areas

00:26:11.860 or the suburbs of Montreal or Quebec City. Conservatives also do have a Quebec City riding, but

00:26:17.660 the Conservatives have to stop their obsession with trying to win Quebec. They have 10 seats. They're

00:26:22.260 going to win this year. They're going to win it next year. They could say that they hate the French

00:26:25.660 language and they would still win those 10 seats. And the Liberals could be as liked by Québécois

00:26:32.020 as they want. The Québécois could love them. And they're still just going to win their Montreal

00:26:37.140 seats and a couple rural seats. And that is it. Maybe if they really push the envelope, they can

00:26:41.820 win a few more. But that's probably going to be a trade where they're going to have to lose a bunch

00:26:47.900 of other ridings in Western Canada, as well as Ontario, if they try and do that. So now let me just

00:26:54.340 jump over to the Ontario numbers because it is a battleground province. And at the moment, actually,

00:27:00.200 they don't even need to really move on. Let's just kind of look at their current approval ratings in

00:27:04.420 Ontario. So right now, in Ontario, Mark Carney's approval rating is plus 18, which is pretty good.

00:27:14.000 But I will also point out in Ontario, Polly's approval rating is plus 3%, which is also not too bad.

00:27:22.340 And Mark Carney, who had a strong appeal in Atlantic Canada. Also, I don't need to write this on the

00:27:29.000 board, but you can just take my word for it that I'm reading it. His approval rating in Atlantic Canada

00:27:33.060 is only plus 14. And Polyev is at even a province or a collection of provinces where back during the

00:27:40.880 election, even Abacus data would show Polyev with a negative 10% approval rating in the Atlantic

00:27:47.160 provinces. It's like the election happening, and Polyev losing his seat and now coming back in

00:27:53.980 Battle River Crowfoot and shifting his messaging in a more culturally conservative direction has,

00:27:59.720 in a certain sense, almost normalized him with Canadians. So even as he actually pushes more

00:28:04.320 right on certain policies, people are just kind of comfortable with him. And they're more willing to

00:28:08.880 hear the ideas where I feel like the election was this weird space where people irrationally hated

00:28:14.500 Polyev's guts. Like, in the current approval ratings, like, obviously, again, Carney in the in the

00:28:20.840 honeymoon that he's in has generally good approval ratings overall. But Polyev right now, let's just

00:28:27.100 quickly erase this. Polyev with his 1% net approval rating, bit of a long nose on that one there with men,

00:28:42.820 he is at a plus 7% approval. And with women, he's at a negative 5%. Now, this is actually a very big

00:28:55.640 gain for Polyev because during the election, even in Abacus data, you would see Polyev with like a

00:29:00.940 negative 10, 9, 12 with women, and his male approval rating would be at like plus 10. So he's fallen a

00:29:09.540 little bit with men as maybe the hype dies down a little bit with younger men. That doesn't mean

00:29:14.360 they're not going to vote for him. It's just that the, you know, the approval rating is a little bit

00:29:18.160 less inflated. But also the disapproval rating with women has also become less inflated, almost halving

00:29:25.340 since the election. And so Polyev may be running in an election atmosphere next time around if he ends

00:29:31.300 up staying on as the leader after the National Convention in Calgary in January, where everyone's a

00:29:37.000 little bit more willing to hear him out. And even right now, I think with him, again, pushing more

00:29:42.020 culturally, socially, fiscally conservative policies, I think in certain areas, they could

00:29:48.540 use a little bit more help fiscally, I hope that they run on an across the board tax cut, because

00:29:53.260 this is a little bit of a nuanced point. But Canadians don't notice the difference. Like I know they do.

00:29:59.860 And I noticed that you guys obviously do. People don't tell the difference between cutting

00:30:04.100 income taxes under $50,000 between 1% and two and a quarter is two and a quarter more. Obviously,

00:30:11.360 it's more than 100% more. But people have to like have 3000 extra dollars saved from a tax cut before

00:30:19.340 they're feeling like this substantially changes my lifestyle. I go to the grocery store with a

00:30:24.780 different mindset. If you're saving someone $800, that helps. But it helps. It's not transforming.

00:30:31.460 And I think that's where the conservatives need a transformational platform. So right now,

00:30:36.520 Polyev's in an atmosphere where people are more willing to listen to them. And so I would say more

00:30:41.500 than ever run on a transformational platform, because people are not turned off by your style.

00:30:47.540 They're not really turned off by your personality at all. And they're not sticking their fingers in the

00:30:52.220 area saying that you're mini Trump. Because as Mark Carney doesn't deliver the goods, and now

00:30:56.760 they're saying, well, what's Polyev saying, you can totally shift your policy. And it's going to be

00:31:01.140 like people are hearing you for the very first time. Because in some cases, it actually is people's

00:31:06.960 first time truly listening to you if you're pure Polyev. And so coming to them saying, I'm not just

00:31:13.280 saying a small reduction compared to the liberals in immigration, I'm not just saying a little bit more

00:31:17.920 of a tax cut. I'm not just saying a little bit more cuts to wasteful spending. I am saying a

00:31:22.860 transformation in how we do government in how we do the economy in this country. We're not going to

00:31:28.040 be a subsidy economy anymore. We're not going to be a public sector economy. We're going to be more

00:31:32.800 private sector, we are going to have more healthcare options, we are going to slash taxes, just like Mike

00:31:38.500 Harris had done in Ontario back in the day, just like we're maybe even can move towards a flat tax.

00:31:43.720 Not that you have to run on those things. Not that you have to run on something audacious,

00:31:47.020 like work for welfare, like Meg Harris did. Not that you have to do something like Gordon

00:31:52.240 Campbell in British Columbia, who was at the time a liberal, but very conservative liberal

00:31:56.800 in slashing taxes. But do something where it feels like there's the liberals and then way over there,

00:32:03.220 there's the conservatives with something totally different. Because people don't detect when it

00:32:08.200 comes to politics, slight differences in fiscal policy, either you are the opposite of the current

00:32:13.380 guise in how big the changes you're proposing are, or you have to find a social policy. And I would say

00:32:20.100 social policies are another thing the conservatives need to hammer on. The thing is, older voters, people

00:32:26.240 above the age of 55, and if you're watching my show, and that describes you, you're probably a conservative.

00:32:31.600 But it's true that disproportionately voters over the age of 55, and especially 60, voted for the liberals.

00:32:37.140 And it's because the fiscal promises for the conservatives were too weak. Again, cutting

00:32:43.000 someone's tax is a little bit under $50,000. When you don't even pay taxes on the first $18,000,

00:32:48.840 doesn't mean anything to a lot of these people who already own their own home, live in a safe gated

00:32:52.920 community, and you know, don't really care too much about the trade issues. They're not in the

00:32:58.100 economy anymore. They're retired. Either you have to really slash their taxes, or you got to run on a

00:33:04.000 cultural or social issue that maybe doesn't win these people over, but makes them less likely to

00:33:09.500 see the liberals as a moral paragon of virtue. You have to hit them on the fact that it's a party

00:33:15.760 that voted against measures to increase criminal penalties for criminals who murder pregnant women.

00:33:21.820 That was something that the liberals actually did. They voted against a measure to upgrade sentencing

00:33:27.000 or murdering a pregnant woman. I think if older women knew that, they probably wouldn't be as likely

00:33:32.620 to vote liberal because that's horrifying. And then with just like older voters in general,

00:33:38.220 immigration is a big deal. They see their neighborhoods changing around them as well

00:33:41.620 with a lot of people who are just here to work minimum wage jobs and then send for admittances

00:33:46.000 home. That changes the atmosphere around them, and they don't like that. They also don't like

00:33:49.880 gender theory being taught to their children in schools or their grandkids.

00:33:53.860 Run on those things because they're not going to be swayed over by small fiscal policy changes.

00:33:58.300 They're out of the economy now. It still matters, but the amount that it matters,

00:34:03.020 the amount that housing policy matters to someone who owns their own home is very minor.

00:34:07.780 Anyways, so that should be it for this video today, guys. Hopefully you liked this longer form

00:34:13.700 whiteboard video. Hopefully you'll learn something, or at least hopefully I put you to sleep and you were

00:34:19.160 suffering from insomnia. But whatever the case, make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel,

00:34:24.500 you know, leave a comment. And if you ever got, if you guys ever want to help me with the legal fund,

00:34:28.960 I have this ongoing ridiculous lawsuit with this billionaire who is suing me over literally

00:34:35.140 nothing. Donate to the Give, Send, Go fundraiser I have in the bottom. I paid like three rounds of

00:34:42.160 bills and I still haven't even pumped it up at all. I don't mention it unless I've had to pay a bunch

00:34:47.140 of bills recently. It's not like it's crippling me. It's not like the channel's going to go away,

00:34:50.880 but you know, five bucks helps. Anyways, so that's it for me today, guys. See you later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - August 11, 2025

Pierre is back？ Liberal approval starts to fall while CPC rises

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