The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - October 28, 2024


Poilievre CPC hold 22% lead as Trudeau fights his own Liberals


Episode Stats


Length

17 minutes

Words per minute

182.66338

Word count

3,137

Sentence count

181


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Justin Trudeau is in a pick-me-up situation, and the polls are starting to catch up to him. The Tories are only a few points behind the Liberals in the polls, but it's not a bad situation at all.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
00:00:00.000 So, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to fumble his Liberal caucus revolt situation,
00:00:06.780 the Federal Conservatives and Pierre Polyev have once again taken a 22% lead over the Liberal Party of Canada.
00:00:14.760 It was funny to see Nanos put out a couple of polls over the last couple of weeks,
00:00:19.040 and people were freaking out, thinking, oh my goodness, it's tightening up,
00:00:22.080 because the polls were showing the Liberals only down by 13%, which would still give the Conservatives a majority,
00:00:27.820 but that was still much lower than they had usually been polling above the Liberals.
00:00:31.840 And if this is a good poll for the Liberals, and if you're celebrating this, like I saw some people celebrating this,
00:00:37.340 switch parties. Just do something else if this is considered good news.
00:00:41.420 Just pack it in if a 13% trail is good.
00:00:44.800 But even this was significantly underestimating the Conservatives' appeal.
00:00:49.440 This was showing that they were only polling 4% above what they had last election,
00:00:54.060 which I really don't think that the Pierre Polyev Conservative Party is only grabbing up 4% more people
00:01:00.200 than Aaron O'Toole's version of the party, but maybe I'm just way off base,
00:01:04.640 and everyone secretly doesn't like Polyev, even though if you check Abacus Data's polls,
00:01:09.100 he's the only leader between himself, Jagmeet Singh, and Justin Trudeau,
00:01:13.760 who actually polls positively, who actually has a net positive approval rating.
00:01:18.380 Now, look over here. We have a poll out from Abacus Data showing the Conservatives at 44%
00:01:25.420 and the Liberals at 22%, and then Angus Reid, which has a 43% for the Conservatives and a 21% for the Liberals.
00:01:33.380 It should also be noted that in the Abacus Data poll,
00:01:40.140 the Liberals are literally within the margin of error of the NDP, and in the, sorry, my goodness, I'm getting this mixed up.
00:01:48.780 It's in the Angus Reid one that they are only one point above the NDP and within the margin of error,
00:01:53.180 and Abacus Data, they're just outside of the margin of error.
00:01:56.500 I could easily see, like a lot of polling models are showing, the NDP getting more seats than the Liberals,
00:02:02.460 because historically, the NDP has had very concentrated support.
00:02:06.220 The NDP doesn't just get, like, a flat 15% in most ridings across the country.
00:02:11.060 The NDP will do, like, 40% in a riding they win, and then they'll be down at 7% in a riding that they don't win,
00:02:17.260 because they just throw a paper candidate in it.
00:02:19.160 So, and if a riding has a substantial NDP presence, they usually have a good chance of winning it.
00:02:25.120 Where the Liberals have a decent chance or decent presence in every riding,
00:02:29.300 So, if they only score 22, 21% of the vote, that is, like, just death for the Liberals.
00:02:36.700 There's just nothing they can do.
00:02:38.580 They're losing most of the seats in Montreal right now, based on most on the models coming up.
00:02:43.860 The Bloc are getting, like, 44 seats in Quebec, and I think the Liberals are getting, like, 20, like, 15 or something like that.
00:02:50.420 It's pathetic.
00:02:51.680 These are the current 338 projections.
00:02:53.800 And what's absolutely wild to look at is if you assume that the Liberals overperform,
00:03:00.060 they're at their maximum performance based on all of the polling aggregated together,
00:03:05.200 and the Conservatives have their worst possible performance,
00:03:08.020 the Conservatives still take the House of Commons with a majority of, like, 18 or 20.
00:03:14.160 And that's if everything goes wrong.
00:03:16.120 They fall on their face.
00:03:17.460 They still have a landslide victory, especially over the next closest party,
00:03:22.080 which would be the Liberals at 85 seats.
00:03:25.060 That would have 100, more than 100-seat lead on the Liberals,
00:03:30.380 if everything goes bad for the Conservatives.
00:03:33.320 That's hilarious.
00:03:34.840 We don't need to really talk about this too much,
00:03:37.280 but I want to now put this in the context of the caucus revolt going on inside the Liberal Party.
00:03:43.460 I never had that much confidence it was really going to work.
00:03:47.460 Like, I thought there was a chance that Trudeau might step down just realizing he can't win,
00:03:52.120 and now all this is making him look very bad.
00:03:54.120 And that can still happen.
00:03:55.820 Justin Trudeau can still step down and say,
00:03:58.000 oh, well, certain elements of my caucus lost confidence in our progressive vision,
00:04:03.840 and so I'm stepping down and letting somebody else lead,
00:04:06.580 but I will be vindicated or whatever he wants to say.
00:04:08.820 But, like, he didn't even take, like, a second to even say,
00:04:13.640 I'm going to get back to my caucus if they have confidence issues
00:04:16.220 and come back to them with a plan to sort of get them more roped in on what I'm doing
00:04:20.760 so that they can, you know, feel confident that we can win this next election.
00:04:25.020 He didn't do that at all.
00:04:26.700 And now one of the MPs who was calling for him to resign,
00:04:29.820 Wayne Long, out in New Brunswick,
00:04:32.300 is basically just saying, like, yeah, you know,
00:04:35.060 it's kind of pathetic that you said that you were going to go and have a period of reflection
00:04:39.440 about what the caucus had told you about all of the massive policy failures
00:04:43.640 of the Liberal government and how they're alienating Canadians,
00:04:46.660 and Trudeau maybe thought about it for about 10 seconds,
00:04:49.260 and then he came back and said, no, I'm still the leader.
00:04:52.180 When you hear from the Prime Minister that essentially he is done reflecting,
00:04:56.680 he's decided to stay on as leader,
00:04:59.300 what does it say that the reflection period is already over to you?
00:05:05.060 Look, we were, I was shocked.
00:05:08.120 I think we had hoped that there would be serious reflection.
00:05:12.680 I mean, reflection in 18 hours tells me the Prime Minister,
00:05:16.640 with respect, already had his mind made up.
00:05:18.920 I mean, let's go back.
00:05:21.720 The caucus meeting was clearly intense, direct, blunt.
00:05:28.500 Twenty-four MPs.
00:05:32.600 I know, you know, it's funny, you know, caucus confidentiality.
00:05:37.520 I didn't walk 30 feet outside caucus and heard there were 24 names on the list.
00:05:42.560 But, you know, you have to recognize that, you know, I'm an older person.
00:05:47.880 I'm a three-term MP.
00:05:50.140 I've got some seasoning, some battle scars.
00:05:52.840 You know, for me to stand direct against the Prime Minister at caucus
00:05:55.600 and say that you need to step down is one thing.
00:05:57.960 But, you know, give some credit to the other people that did stand up.
00:06:04.100 Twenty-four on the list.
00:06:05.340 But, you know, young MPs, new MPs, wide array of MPs that stood up.
00:06:12.120 That took a lot of courage.
00:06:13.620 A lot of courage to actually stand in front of us.
00:06:16.280 I know he's now trying to buy it back here.
00:06:18.060 I let it go on for a little bit there.
00:06:19.540 But, like, it doesn't take courage.
00:06:22.840 It doesn't take courage.
00:06:24.160 They're just under an extreme amount of cowardice right now.
00:06:29.200 When the Conservatives don't like their leader, for good or for ill,
00:06:32.320 they throw them out in two seconds.
00:06:34.480 Danielle Smith could lose her leadership review in Alberta
00:06:37.380 because people think that she's maybe not performing on policy as well as she should,
00:06:42.180 especially considering that she took over the job from Jason Kenney,
00:06:45.540 who, if you're not performing much better than him, that is kind of a problem.
00:06:49.040 I am going to have a video coming out later this week on my thoughts on her leadership review,
00:06:53.880 how I'm going to vote in it since I am going to the AGM.
00:06:56.640 But Conservatives are actually very hard on their leaders.
00:06:59.240 The Liberals are trying to give them pats on the back for about two seconds opposing Justin Trudeau.
00:07:04.780 They didn't oppose him at all.
00:07:06.640 Like, I think, again, Justin Trudeau is still wounded by this caucus revolt,
00:07:10.760 this miniature caucus revolt, and it could end up meaning that he's not going to,
00:07:15.540 like, he can never recover in the polls because Canadians have seen even large portions of his current caucus
00:07:21.540 do not believe in him, and probably even more don't,
00:07:24.340 but they just weren't willing to put their names forward or sign a list
00:07:26.720 or get in front of Trudeau at the caucus meeting and say,
00:07:29.760 hey, what the heck are you doing?
00:07:31.200 But it's like, it's just, they lack backbone.
00:07:33.920 That is the real problem here.
00:07:35.320 Here's Sean Casey, the MP for Charlottetown,
00:07:37.840 who literally just immediately backed off of his calls for Justin Trudeau to resign
00:07:42.560 after the caucus meeting, basically saying everything's resolved.
00:07:45.640 Did the Prime Minister take enough time to decide on whether he should stay or go?
00:07:49.080 Do you feel he took enough time to reflect?
00:07:53.940 No, I don't.
00:07:56.480 But I don't think that he felt that he needed to reflect at all.
00:08:00.820 I think his mind was made up.
00:08:02.680 What do you make of that?
00:08:04.420 Disappointment.
00:08:04.900 He then moves on after that, Sean Casey.
00:08:08.180 So that wasn't the exact clip I wanted,
00:08:09.740 where he just says that his issues are resolved
00:08:11.960 or he's no longer pursuing to get Justin Trudeau removed.
00:08:14.880 So he even just says, well, it's disappointing.
00:08:17.180 He didn't do the right thing, but we're back in line.
00:08:19.700 You know, what?
00:08:22.320 What's going on here?
00:08:23.620 You think you would, like, separate, start a new party
00:08:25.720 or just declare yourself an independent
00:08:27.680 to make your displeasure really well known?
00:08:31.020 Because Sean Casey and a lot of these other MPs
00:08:33.760 aren't going to win re-election anyways.
00:08:35.940 So why not jump over, be an independent,
00:08:38.320 keep voting for whatever priorities you want,
00:08:40.940 but proving that Justin Trudeau is not a leader
00:08:43.400 that you're willing to serve under.
00:08:44.800 And so then if there was a leadership race,
00:08:47.540 depending on who the leader is,
00:08:48.700 you can then rejoin caucus.
00:08:50.180 But the problem is, like I've highlighted in other videos,
00:08:54.240 nobody, like, polls better than the bubonic plague
00:08:58.020 inside of the Liberals' hypothetical leadership race
00:09:00.640 that the media keeps polling,
00:09:02.760 or these different polling companies do.
00:09:04.920 Christophe Freeland, 13%.
00:09:06.960 Mark Carney, 11%.
00:09:07.920 Melanie Jolie, 5%.
00:09:09.440 François-Philippe Champagne, 5%.
00:09:11.960 Dominic LeBlanc, 4%.
00:09:13.680 John Fraser, 4%.
00:09:14.960 Anita Anand, 3%.
00:09:16.420 And leading the pack by a majority margin,
00:09:19.980 54% unsure.
00:09:21.880 It's because the Liberal Party has no spine in it.
00:09:24.460 There's no interesting characters in the Liberal Party.
00:09:26.780 If anyone ever catches your attention
00:09:28.660 as a Liberal candidate,
00:09:31.540 or like a Liberal MLA or MP,
00:09:34.120 it's usually someone doing something clownish
00:09:35.960 like Mark Gerritsen or Ryan Turnbull,
00:09:38.420 or like Mark Miller, not Mark Miller,
00:09:41.900 Mark Holland, or whatever,
00:09:43.580 making a fool of himself inside of a question period.
00:09:47.980 I forget what the thing was about him.
00:09:49.680 But whenever it's a Liberal
00:09:50.800 who actually catches your attention,
00:09:53.120 it's because they're acting unhinged.
00:09:54.540 It's not because they have a real personality
00:09:56.180 and they're charismatic.
00:09:57.700 Nate, Erickson Smith might be the closest to it.
00:10:00.240 And it's because he actually has media training.
00:10:03.600 He actually knows how to act in the media.
00:10:05.840 He runs his own podcast.
00:10:07.140 But even then, he's a thin-skinned egomaniac
00:10:10.240 who just starts swearing in committee meetings
00:10:12.680 because somebody offended him
00:10:14.440 and questioned his integrity.
00:10:16.180 And to prove his integrity,
00:10:17.380 he starts acting like a schoolchild.
00:10:20.100 Here's another thing I just quickly want to touch on
00:10:22.280 before I end this video.
00:10:24.380 And it's the new Liberal attack.
00:10:26.340 And maybe I'll have to make a full video on this later.
00:10:28.560 But the new Liberal attack on Pyrapaliev
00:10:31.260 that he is going to cut government spending.
00:10:33.520 Here we have Ryan Turnbull
00:10:37.380 posting a three-second clip,
00:10:39.500 which isn't suspicious at all,
00:10:40.980 what he's trying to hide,
00:10:42.160 of Pyrapaliev saying that he wants to cut programs
00:10:44.400 and cut much more than what he had discussed
00:10:46.960 at this press conference.
00:10:48.080 We're going to cut two programs for sure
00:10:49.760 and more beyond that.
00:10:51.920 And Ryan Turnbull presented this
00:10:55.480 as in a rare press conference.
00:10:57.940 Pyrapaliev was cornered on his cuts plan.
00:11:01.600 His answer, we're going to cut two programs for sure
00:11:04.640 and more beyond that.
00:11:06.320 Here's what Conservatives will take away from your family.
00:11:08.600 And it just goes on through a bunch of things
00:11:10.420 that Pyrapaliev never actually said he was going to cut,
00:11:12.640 but Ryan Turnbull is just going to say
00:11:14.080 he wanted to cut them.
00:11:15.520 And again, the problem here for the Liberals,
00:11:17.560 and I'm happy to see them mess up as a Conservative.
00:11:20.180 I want them to mess up as hard as humanly possible.
00:11:23.520 Nobody's scared of cuts in this country.
00:11:25.320 People actually approve of cuts.
00:11:27.000 There is polling on whether or not people think
00:11:29.240 the government spends too much money
00:11:30.500 and whether we need to cut wasteful programs and spending.
00:11:35.040 And it polls like 57%, 62% of people think
00:11:38.640 that we spend too much and it needs to be reduced.
00:11:41.460 So every time the Liberals attack people on this,
00:11:44.420 attack Conservatives on this,
00:11:45.860 it just makes Conservatives more popular.
00:11:47.960 Here's the actual clip of Pyrapaliev talking about
00:11:50.680 slashing a bunch of inefficient housing program spending,
00:11:55.080 which, and the Liberals are going to say,
00:11:56.920 well, see, he doesn't take affordable housing seriously.
00:11:58.480 Housing starts have gone down since the Liberals started spending more on housing
00:12:03.080 because they are just subsidizing bad municipal housing systems
00:12:07.060 that make it impossible to build.
00:12:09.120 And then they just bribe cities by giving them money
00:12:11.340 if they do blanket rezoning,
00:12:13.240 even though this money comes with even more federal environmental regulations
00:12:17.000 and building codes and whatnot.
00:12:18.240 So everything remains impossible to build,
00:12:20.840 but it might end up destroying a bunch of communities
00:12:22.800 because you start building six plexes
00:12:24.640 right next to single-family detached houses
00:12:27.280 in communities that never had six plexes.
00:12:30.080 I wanted to know if you can confirm,
00:12:31.680 first of all, that this,
00:12:33.120 your plan that you're proposing today
00:12:34.300 will save $8 billion annually.
00:12:36.100 Also, can you list the programs that you'll be cutting
00:12:40.840 to get to this number?
00:12:42.200 And please, en anglais et en français.
00:12:44.760 So it will save $8 billion over...
00:12:50.260 There were kind of cut two programs for sure
00:12:51.940 and more beyond that.
00:12:53.340 One, the Accelerator Fund has $3 billion left in it.
00:12:56.860 It has been a disastrous program
00:12:58.720 that has led to less home building
00:13:00.440 and more local bureaucracies.
00:13:03.060 $3 billion will be saved from that.
00:13:05.960 And then the Housing Infrastructure Fund
00:13:08.740 that hasn't built any infrastructure or any housing.
00:13:12.040 Why do you think Ryan Turnbull
00:13:13.700 didn't play this section of the clip?
00:13:16.520 It's almost like if he actually explains,
00:13:19.220 if Polly explains the spending,
00:13:22.040 this wasteful spending,
00:13:23.680 every Canadian will then think,
00:13:25.340 well, we should cut that.
00:13:26.200 That's ridiculous.
00:13:26.880 We haven't built any new houses for all this money,
00:13:28.960 or it's basically,
00:13:30.520 oh, our housing starts are down
00:13:31.860 despite the fact that we've been spending billions
00:13:33.980 on this Accelerator Fund.
00:13:35.420 Nobody has a problem with this.
00:13:37.000 And Ryan Turnbull saying like,
00:13:38.660 oh, Pure Polly was cornered on this question.
00:13:41.180 No, he wasn't.
00:13:42.060 Oh my goodness.
00:13:42.620 He answered immediately.
00:13:44.440 Obviously, it wasn't something
00:13:45.360 that he maybe planned to answer.
00:13:46.840 So his startup was a little bit sluggish there.
00:13:49.220 But he's now just telling you,
00:13:50.560 yeah, I'm going to cut these two programs.
00:13:52.120 I'm going to cut many more.
00:13:52.960 Do you think that he would say the many more part
00:13:55.480 if he was hiding something?
00:13:57.980 He's saying many more,
00:13:59.300 and that's not really for this press conference.
00:14:01.360 He would just say,
00:14:01.820 I'm not going to cut anything.
00:14:03.180 You know, we're just going to find efficiencies
00:14:04.960 in government and he'd stay vague.
00:14:06.540 He's not being vague
00:14:07.380 because he's not being cornered on this question.
00:14:09.080 He knows what to say.
00:14:10.280 And hasn't even instituted any announcements.
00:14:16.360 They're not even accepting applications yet.
00:14:19.420 Six months after it was announced,
00:14:21.320 what they're doing with the money
00:14:22.540 is building up a big fat bureaucracy in Ottawa.
00:14:25.080 That will be gone.
00:14:26.400 So that's a total of $8 billion over several years.
00:14:30.860 Then we expect that we will collect about $2 billion more
00:14:35.180 as a result of the 30,000 additional homes
00:14:38.820 that will be built year after year
00:14:41.080 because of this highly stimulative tax cut.
00:14:45.240 It's going to spark more home building,
00:14:47.140 which means more workers and businesses
00:14:49.680 will be making money building homes.
00:14:52.240 And therefore at the existing rates,
00:14:54.560 they'll be paying more into the system.
00:14:56.740 See, and that's a point
00:14:57.960 that so many liberals don't understand
00:14:59.400 that you can make more government tax revenue
00:15:03.000 by having lower tax rates.
00:15:05.020 You don't just lose money by lowering taxes.
00:15:07.620 Your tax rate is just how much you are demanding
00:15:10.760 of people from their income.
00:15:12.380 Incomes shift depending on what the tax rates are.
00:15:15.400 People work harder
00:15:16.340 when they get to keep more of their own money.
00:15:18.520 Who would even work if you were taxed 100%
00:15:21.540 and then the government just gave you back
00:15:23.380 like food stipends or whatever
00:15:25.320 as compensation for getting rid of 100% of your income.
00:15:30.660 That's basically the Soviet Union.
00:15:32.620 You work and you're basically have
00:15:34.420 all your money taken away from you.
00:15:36.140 And then you're just given your rations for the month.
00:15:38.380 Here's how much food and cigarettes or whatever
00:15:41.080 they would give you in a month.
00:15:43.040 And then you just have to put up with it.
00:15:44.440 And in the Soviet Union,
00:15:45.640 productivity per capita was very low
00:15:47.720 because what's the point of being productive
00:15:49.140 when the best you can really get
00:15:51.180 is a hole in the wall apartment with your rations.
00:15:54.100 Working harder doesn't make your rations bigger
00:15:56.200 for the most part.
00:15:57.200 So what's the point?
00:15:58.400 That's a hyperbolic example,
00:15:59.800 but it proves the point that people will work more
00:16:03.280 when tax rates are lower.
00:16:04.640 Obviously the government will bring in $0 of tax revenue
00:16:07.360 if the rate of taxation is zero.
00:16:10.560 So somewhere in the middle is the ideal tax rate.
00:16:13.580 It's called the laugher curve.
00:16:15.360 Anyways, that should be it for me today, guys.
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00:16:35.420 Actually, it was just relevant today
00:16:37.080 because one of the people who at a press conference
00:16:39.440 was implicated in foreign interference
00:16:42.220 is associated with the guy who is currently suing me.
00:16:46.120 So the conservative center, Victor Oh,
00:16:47.920 is a friend of and has been associated with the guy,
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00:17:07.260 Anyways, so that should be it for me today, guys.
00:17:09.880 Have a good one.