The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 20, 2026


Poilievre Looks Stronger Than Mark Carney in NEW poll - CPC LPC tie at 40%


Episode Stats

Length

30 minutes

Words per Minute

176.11508

Word Count

5,362

Sentence Count

304

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

7


Summary

In this episode, we go through a recent Abacus data poll that shows a lot of strength for the Tories, despite the demographics leaning more liberal than a normal Canadian electorate would actually look like. I discuss why I think this is a good sign for the PPC, and why I don't think the party will survive the next election.


Transcript

00:00:00.080 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back again to talk about some more Canadian national polling numbers.
00:00:07.360 On the show today, we're going to go through an Abacus data poll that I think shows a lot of strength for Pierre Polyev's Conservatives,
00:00:15.800 despite the demographics actually leaning more liberal in this poll than what I think a normal Canadian electorate would actually look like.
00:00:24.440 I'll get to what I mean by that in just a second, but before we get into the numbers, I just want to remind you guys,
00:00:30.640 if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on the video, subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber,
00:00:36.040 leave a comment about what you think about all this, and if you want to support the show,
00:00:39.680 you can always go below and hit the join button and help make the channel more sustainable for me
00:00:44.620 and make me less reliant on YouTube's algorithm by contributing monthly.
00:00:48.920 But now, without further ado, let's get into the top-line numbers from this recent Abacus data poll.
00:00:56.440 Now, they're not that exciting on the surface, but as we go below in terms of regional demographics as well as age brackets,
00:01:05.020 you'll see why this is such a good poll for Pierre Polyev's Conservatives.
00:01:09.300 Starting out, we have the Liberals in this poll, polling up to 40%.
00:01:14.300 Now, remember, they ended up getting 43% in the last federal election, so they have softened a little bit in the polling.
00:01:23.700 I think as Canadians are seeing them not really achieve too much, they're having some of those voters along the margins
00:01:28.960 really paying attention, starting to, you know, at least pull back their Liberal vote.
00:01:33.880 Maybe they're not switching over to Conservatives quite yet, but they're becoming undecided these days.
00:01:39.100 A lot of these polls usually have four or five points of people who don't really know where their vote's going to go right now.
00:01:45.580 And then, followed behind the Liberals, or effectively tied, we have the Conservatives, who are also at 40%.
00:01:53.180 I think in the decimal points, they might be slightly behind, but they're within the margin of error,
00:01:58.640 which means they are, in effect, tied.
00:02:01.420 So we have the Conservatives there also at 40%.
00:02:05.100 This poll then has the NDP followed behind now at 8%.
00:02:13.220 Remember, they only got 6% in the last federal election, so even this is an improvement for them.
00:02:17.640 And they are still leaderless at the moment, so you can't really judge them too hard based on how they're polling at the moment.
00:02:24.340 Once they likely either have Heather McPherson, who is a sitting NDP, MP, take the leadership,
00:02:31.600 or one of the outsider candidates like Avi Lewis or Rob Ashton win,
00:02:35.440 you will probably see an upward trend for the NDP after around March when the new leader is selected.
00:02:43.420 And then, after the NDP, we have the Blocs, Quebecois, who are a little bit behind them,
00:02:49.320 but obviously they only run in Quebec, and the Bloc is at 7%,
00:02:53.780 which is actually a point better than they did in the last election,
00:02:57.080 and because, again, all that is concentrated in the province of Quebec would have them win back a few seats.
00:03:03.180 The Greens probably had a bit of an overperformance in this poll,
00:03:06.740 but they ended up clocking in at 3%,
00:03:10.060 and if you want me to go over the PPC numbers,
00:03:13.500 they are what they always are.
00:03:15.000 They are at 1% right now.
00:03:16.820 Other in the poll was at 1%.
00:03:18.420 I don't see the PPC actually surviving this next election.
00:03:23.540 They were already only at 0.7% in the last election.
00:03:28.320 They're not going to gain.
00:03:29.620 There's really no room for them to gain.
00:03:31.640 If anything, Polyev has become more right-wing since the election on topics like immigration,
00:03:37.040 the economy, you know, just foreign policy, a lot of that stuff.
00:03:41.480 He is more to the right,
00:03:43.360 which means how does the PPC win back any of its support?
00:03:46.220 I assume that the party is going to go bankrupt.
00:03:48.840 They're not going to run many candidates next election,
00:03:50.920 and then they'll effectively go away at that point,
00:03:53.220 which means not only will the Conservatives pick up the 1%, the PPC likely has,
00:03:59.380 but they'll probably actually do even better than that,
00:04:01.720 simply because all the volunteers who may have wasted time working with the PPC,
00:04:06.880 I've worked with small parties.
00:04:08.100 I don't necessarily always think it's a waste of time helping small parties.
00:04:11.660 I door knocked for the new blue party in the provincial election in Ontario
00:04:15.460 because I don't like Doug Ford's PCs.
00:04:17.720 But the thing is, when the bigger party is doing a good job
00:04:21.600 and brings some of those people back over,
00:04:23.620 some of those people might be your best volunteers.
00:04:25.620 The type of people who volunteer for a small party are hardcore,
00:04:29.600 and when they go from the PPC back to the CPC,
00:04:32.400 that's going to probably generate thousands of more doors knocked
00:04:35.920 in many of these battleground ridings.
00:04:38.000 But I just want to give a little bit more context to this
00:04:40.700 before we jump over to the regionals
00:04:44.000 to demonstrate why this is such a great poll for Pierre Polyev.
00:04:46.860 Now, since the last time Abacus did a poll,
00:04:51.340 the Liberals had fallen by 1%,
00:04:54.240 the Conservatives had fallen by 1%,
00:04:56.800 the NDP had also fallen by 1%,
00:05:00.240 and I think the only parties that ended up gaining here
00:05:03.660 was the Bloc Québécois jumping up 1% to their 7% rate,
00:05:09.040 and we had the Greens jumping up 1% as well,
00:05:12.420 which I think is a bit of an over-poll.
00:05:14.800 What's going on here, and especially what's indicated by
00:05:17.680 other being at 1,
00:05:20.300 is that probably people are just in a bit of a holding pattern right now.
00:05:23.900 Remember, this does not include the undecideds.
00:05:26.500 This is after all of the undecideds are taken out,
00:05:29.860 and you've reallocated which parties certain voters
00:05:32.440 are maybe leaning towards if they are not fully decided yet.
00:05:35.600 What you're probably seeing is about maybe even 10% of people held back
00:05:40.300 who have not decided who they're going to support.
00:05:43.040 But remember, since the election,
00:05:45.680 the Conservatives are only down by about 1.3%, 1.2%.
00:05:49.660 The Liberals are down by 3.5%.
00:05:53.240 They are way further down since the election than the Conservatives are,
00:05:57.360 and it is benefiting both the NDP and the Bloc Québécois.
00:06:01.980 The Conservatives already have as many seats in Quebec
00:06:04.800 as they are ever going to win.
00:06:06.580 It doesn't mean you don't try in Quebec.
00:06:08.520 It means you don't have to fear the Quebec vote
00:06:10.760 if you're the Conservatives.
00:06:12.140 You can run on some stuff that may even be controversial in that province.
00:06:16.280 The Conservatives win the more libertarian,
00:06:19.060 more small government Conservative seats in that province.
00:06:22.340 It's not going to change if they even take a side against supply management.
00:06:26.720 It's just not going to happen.
00:06:27.980 They could actually run on that and gain support.
00:06:30.380 It doesn't mean there are.
00:06:31.320 Maybe they still just don't want to.
00:06:33.180 But run on something big.
00:06:35.220 Like, run on some big stuff.
00:06:36.320 And even if it kind of goes against the Quebec political culture,
00:06:39.400 which tends to be a little bit more big government,
00:06:42.340 a little bit more, like, socialistic,
00:06:45.520 you can run on a big tax cut.
00:06:47.440 You can run on a health care reform.
00:06:49.160 And you might lose a point in Quebec, a few points in Quebec.
00:06:53.100 You're still going to hold on to the ridings you already have.
00:06:55.540 And guess what?
00:06:56.160 It's going to benefit the Bloc.
00:06:57.420 Look, the Conservative voters are not going to go vote Liberal.
00:07:00.440 They'll probably go vote Bloc first.
00:07:02.380 So what's really the harm in running on a more bold,
00:07:05.620 small government Conservative platform,
00:07:07.540 even if it's kind of out of step with how Quebec voters
00:07:10.300 would usually want you to move in?
00:07:12.860 But now I want to move on to some of the demographic polling
00:07:17.440 and the regional polling to demonstrate, again,
00:07:20.260 why this is such a good poll for the Conservatives.
00:07:22.060 And then I want to talk a bit about Pierre Paglia's approval
00:07:25.100 and disapproval numbers that are indicative of the Conservatives
00:07:28.360 doing well in this poll,
00:07:29.940 despite the fact that the sample of this poll
00:07:32.120 seems more left-wing than a typical Abacus data sample.
00:07:35.960 I'll just clear the board and we'll be back in one second.
00:07:39.540 We're back and we're going to start with the regionals
00:07:42.820 before I jump into the age brackets.
00:07:45.280 So these three regions are really the swing regions of Canada.
00:07:50.380 We're not really that interested in seeing
00:07:52.520 what's going to go on in Saskatchewan, Alberta,
00:07:55.600 or Quebec.
00:07:56.480 Quebec is a different environment.
00:07:58.240 We don't really have to care about it too much.
00:07:59.680 But these are the main battlegrounds between
00:08:01.600 the Liberals, Conservatives, and the NDP.
00:08:05.020 British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada.
00:08:08.720 Now, this is where the poll's kind of weird
00:08:11.040 and it makes it a bit of an outlier.
00:08:13.260 But it's an outlier that should be benefiting the Liberals.
00:08:16.880 Obviously, an outlier is whenever polls,
00:08:19.300 just based on the numbers you get back,
00:08:23.000 it's clear that this is probably not fully representative of the country.
00:08:26.340 We over-polled too many urban voters, maybe.
00:08:28.780 We over-polled too many people from a public sector background.
00:08:33.180 Stuff like that could cause something to be an over-poll or an outlier poll.
00:08:37.760 You know, like, if you polled too many rural people,
00:08:40.320 you could make the Conservatives look like they're doing way better than they actually are.
00:08:43.780 Oftentimes, it happens in reverse, where it's urban voters that are over-polled
00:08:48.180 and rural voters don't pick up the phone as much.
00:08:50.500 It's called a response bias,
00:08:52.020 which means that you'll have these massive misses in, like,
00:08:55.000 provincial elections in Saskatchewan,
00:08:56.860 where all of the voters that you called were pretty much urban voters.
00:09:01.300 And even if they're in a rural area,
00:09:03.460 they're the person who's a schoolteacher in a small town,
00:09:05.760 which isn't representative of all the farmers in the region.
00:09:09.540 But I want to take you guys through these different regions,
00:09:12.500 and you'll see what I mean in just a second.
00:09:14.660 So in British Columbia,
00:09:16.320 we actually have the Liberals winning that province with 41% of the vote,
00:09:24.140 followed up by, obviously, the Conservatives,
00:09:26.920 who have 37%,
00:09:28.920 and then the NDP,
00:09:32.080 who is grabbing 14%.
00:09:34.940 And I guess I can also tack the Greens onto British Columbia,
00:09:38.460 because, hey, it's B.C. where Elizabeth May is,
00:09:40.960 so they tend to do better in this province.
00:09:43.140 So we'll throw on their 5% here as well.
00:09:47.520 Now, if the Conservatives are doing well in a poll,
00:09:50.760 you would actually assume that in B.C.,
00:09:54.140 that's the province you are going to see the Conservatives leading.
00:09:56.760 But no, not in this poll.
00:09:58.220 The Liberals are leading by 4% here.
00:10:01.220 But now let's jump over to Ontario.
00:10:04.660 Now, remember that in the last federal election,
00:10:07.920 the Liberals won Ontario with 49% of the vote,
00:10:11.020 and the Conservatives had like 43.5% or something like that.
00:10:15.220 They won Ontario by quite a margin.
00:10:18.000 But not in this poll.
00:10:19.520 In fact, in this poll,
00:10:21.000 while the Liberals are leading,
00:10:22.960 their lead is way, way down.
00:10:25.680 And this is a really bad sign for the Liberals,
00:10:28.460 who need to absolutely run the score up in this province.
00:10:31.600 So they're down 5 points since Election Day at 44%.
00:10:35.100 And the Conservatives,
00:10:36.780 and this has kind of become a trend with Polyev's Conservatives,
00:10:39.300 they haven't moved up or down pretty at all.
00:10:42.640 They're just at 43 exactly where they were on election night.
00:10:47.120 And then we have the NDP having clawed back a few percentage points,
00:10:51.860 getting back to 8%.
00:10:53.900 They were only at 4% on election night,
00:10:56.660 and now they are back to 8%.
00:10:58.700 And then in Atlantic Canada,
00:11:01.100 this is another province where the Liberals got like 52% on election night,
00:11:05.620 and the Conservatives got around 42%.
00:11:07.940 But here, the Liberals, again leading,
00:11:11.220 but they are at 45% of the vote only.
00:11:15.260 They have fallen 7 points since election night,
00:11:17.800 with the Conservatives having, again,
00:11:20.400 maintained their vote with 42%.
00:11:22.700 And the NDP going from, I think,
00:11:26.240 only like three or four or something like that,
00:11:29.240 again, up to 8%.
00:11:30.860 And I guess I can highlight this as well,
00:11:32.920 because it's another, you know,
00:11:34.860 over-performing region for them.
00:11:37.360 The Greens, who used to have a seat a couple of elections ago
00:11:40.620 in Atlantic Canada,
00:11:42.040 they are at 3% here.
00:11:44.880 This is fantastic news for the Conservatives,
00:11:48.540 because, again, Ontario is the area where the Liberals 44% here.
00:11:55.060 That is pretty much all concentrated in Toronto and the GTA.
00:11:59.600 Yeah, they have a couple of rural ridings,
00:12:02.560 border in Quebec,
00:12:03.480 that are supply management ridings they hold on to.
00:12:06.180 Sure, they still grab up some of the ridings in Hamilton.
00:12:09.900 They grab up ridings out in Niagara.
00:12:13.380 Whatever.
00:12:13.940 They can have them.
00:12:14.780 But the problem is when the election is getting this close in Ontario,
00:12:20.300 that 43% outweighs that 44%.
00:12:23.660 This is a bad sign for the Liberals,
00:12:26.040 because in downtown Toronto,
00:12:28.060 the Liberals will keep dominating.
00:12:29.880 In Ottawa, the Liberals will keep dominating.
00:12:33.140 But that means, disproportionately,
00:12:35.240 that 44% is invested in winning a very specific grouping of seats,
00:12:40.120 where the Conservatives 43% tends to be more thinly spread out in such a way
00:12:45.400 where they pick up way more seats than the Liberals.
00:12:47.760 In Atlantic Canada,
00:12:49.180 the Liberals will still win more seats than the Conservatives.
00:12:51.920 But if we're at this point,
00:12:53.620 this is getting to an election result where the Liberals,
00:12:57.240 I think there's like 24 seats or something like that in Atlantic Canada,
00:13:00.440 might be like 32 or whatever, 35.
00:13:03.420 I don't know the exact numbers.
00:13:04.940 But this is where the Liberals are maybe only winning five more seats
00:13:07.860 than the Conservatives.
00:13:08.660 And this is why I consider it a swing area.
00:13:12.820 The Liberals need to basically sweep Atlantic Canada
00:13:15.940 to be in a majority government territory.
00:13:18.060 And then they need to almost sweep Ontario.
00:13:20.360 Not like fully,
00:13:21.120 but they need to be winning two-thirds of the seats in Ontario.
00:13:24.080 If they're going 50-50 with the Conservatives,
00:13:26.160 they're in trouble.
00:13:27.480 And right now, again, in Quebec,
00:13:29.080 that's not going to be the blood bag that they think it is.
00:13:31.300 That's not going to be their IV bag,
00:13:33.200 because the Bloc's doing better,
00:13:34.680 which means they're playing purely defensive
00:13:36.540 in the Montreal suburbs area.
00:13:38.660 And they could end up having a lot of their,
00:13:41.020 you know, the gains that they make in a province like that wiped out.
00:13:44.900 And now they're having to rely on these other provinces
00:13:47.200 where they're not doing so hot.
00:13:48.940 The brightest point for the Liberals is British Columbia,
00:13:52.640 that they only won by a few points over the Conservatives last time.
00:13:56.180 And they actually may have increased their margin here.
00:13:58.760 But this is what I mean.
00:13:59.820 It's actually kind of a strange pull.
00:14:01.420 The Liberals are doing better in British Columbia
00:14:03.880 than Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
00:14:07.200 This feels like in certain areas
00:14:09.100 where the Conservatives should be doing better,
00:14:11.060 they actually over-polled the Liberals.
00:14:13.620 But now I'm going to clear this,
00:14:15.060 and we're going to come back with the age brackets.
00:14:17.060 That's really going to reveal kind of what happened here.
00:14:20.180 A lot of the Conservative strengths have been muted in this poll.
00:14:23.620 And even though their strengths are muted,
00:14:25.780 they're still doing far better than you would ever expect.
00:14:28.200 It's a national tie with a turnout sample
00:14:32.080 that looks like it should be benefiting the Liberals more.
00:14:37.260 So now we're back with the age brackets.
00:14:40.300 And I want to start in reverse order
00:14:42.320 from 16 over back down to 18 to 29,
00:14:45.520 because the 18 to 29 result is kind of weird to me.
00:14:49.160 And this is where, again, I'm getting indications it's an outlier,
00:14:52.600 but an outlier that should be benefiting the Liberals.
00:14:55.160 So we have 60 and over going Liberal 52%.
00:15:00.860 Now, I know if you're above the age of 60
00:15:03.240 and you're watching this video, it's not your fault.
00:15:07.460 It's some people in gated communities in the GTA
00:15:10.940 who think the Liberals are the best thing since sliced bread,
00:15:14.160 and they do not want to change their vote.
00:15:16.040 Although this is an over-poll for the Liberals.
00:15:19.020 52% is pretty crazy.
00:15:20.880 And the fact that Atlantic Canada was this close
00:15:23.800 considering the over-60 demographic poll,
00:15:26.860 like the sample, is pretty nuts,
00:15:29.300 because obviously the Maritimes is the oldest region in Canada on average.
00:15:33.400 But we have 52% for the Liberals,
00:15:36.040 32% only for the Conservatives,
00:15:39.380 and we have then 5% for the NDP.
00:15:43.660 And we'll even include the Bloc Québécois here,
00:15:45.860 who is a demographically older party as well,
00:15:48.820 and they are at 9%.
00:15:50.320 That's also why the Liberals have to be careful in Quebec
00:15:54.360 of losing votes,
00:15:56.360 because a lot of voters who might...
00:15:59.560 Like, the problem is that the strength,
00:16:01.860 the demographic strength that the Liberals have in Quebec is muted,
00:16:05.040 because older voters tend to vote Bloc Québécois disproportionately.
00:16:09.560 And because younger voters are moving Conservative,
00:16:11.940 every vote that the Liberals are losing
00:16:13.980 is going towards the Conservatives out there,
00:16:17.080 or it's a demographic they're actually not that good with overall
00:16:20.460 that they have to rely on in Quebec.
00:16:22.440 That's how I'm trying to say that.
00:16:24.100 But now we go down to 45% to 59%, the Gen X voters,
00:16:27.600 and they are going 43% Conservative.
00:16:31.540 Conservatives are leading here by 4 points over the Liberals,
00:16:34.800 who have 39%.
00:16:36.840 Then we have 6% for the NDP.
00:16:40.680 You'll notice the NDP goes up as the demos get younger,
00:16:43.380 and the Bloc Québécois at 7% here.
00:16:48.120 Then going to 30% to 44%, primarily, mostly Millennials,
00:16:52.400 we have the Conservatives leading again with 41%,
00:16:57.140 and although that's a lower number,
00:16:58.680 they're actually leading by more,
00:17:00.440 because we then have the NDP at...
00:17:03.220 or the Liberals only at 35%.
00:17:05.380 And then we have the NDP going up again at 9% with Millennials.
00:17:13.200 Then once we go down to the super young voters,
00:17:16.120 the Zoomer voters,
00:17:17.300 we then have the Conservatives at 50%,
00:17:21.160 with the Liberals only at 27%.
00:17:26.160 And naturally there...
00:17:28.060 Oh, I forgot to put it in the Bloc Québécois here.
00:17:30.080 There are 8% for the Millennials.
00:17:32.840 And then we have the NDP at 14% with youth voters.
00:17:40.240 I think that's actually going to hold once they get a new leader,
00:17:43.140 especially if they're social media savvy,
00:17:44.720 because Jagme Singh and Warren himself out so much.
00:17:47.320 And then the Bloc Québécois here,
00:17:49.160 as I was indicating with the age of the party,
00:17:51.280 they're only at 2% with those 18 to 29.
00:17:55.460 Now, what you can kind of...
00:17:57.740 What you're probably seeing here is an obvious controversial age gap
00:18:02.960 between who votes Conservative and who votes Liberal.
00:18:06.240 The problem with this is it's actually really overstated.
00:18:10.120 The thing is that in this chart,
00:18:12.820 the Conservatives are doing super well with the young voters
00:18:15.500 and the Liberals are doing super well with the older voters.
00:18:19.140 The thing is, though,
00:18:20.020 that young voters are actually not usually a Conservative demographic.
00:18:23.260 Now, 60 and over voters tend to vote Liberal overall.
00:18:27.580 The Liberal Party's always been the older left-wing party
00:18:30.760 and the NDP is the younger left-wing party.
00:18:33.320 But this is a gap that I don't think is realistic.
00:18:37.340 I don't think that since the last election,
00:18:40.920 somehow older voters are voting for the Liberals even harder,
00:18:44.200 because many of the things promised
00:18:46.000 that would have turned out retired voters,
00:18:48.600 like taking on Donald Trump, has not happened.
00:18:50.860 That he has not done a good job on that promise.
00:18:53.320 So I don't think that he's going to increase his lead
00:18:56.020 because it was tighter in the actual federal election.
00:18:59.320 And then with younger voters,
00:19:00.460 I also actually don't think the Conservatives are doing this well either.
00:19:04.120 But the thing is,
00:19:04.940 it's not the demographic you want to be doing well with
00:19:07.380 if you had to choose one.
00:19:08.760 If you want to choose demographics to be doing well with,
00:19:11.640 you want these two.
00:19:13.440 You want the middle-aged voters right here
00:19:15.760 because they are the biggest portion of the population
00:19:19.140 and they also have like the,
00:19:22.700 one, they turn out and vote
00:19:23.820 and they're the biggest portion of the population.
00:19:26.680 The thing was with young voters,
00:19:28.440 typically you only see a lead with the Conservatives
00:19:31.100 about five to seven points.
00:19:33.680 Usually it's like the Conservatives are at 45,
00:19:36.700 Liberals are at like 40,
00:19:38.360 and then the NDP is at like 15% or so.
00:19:41.580 But the thing is here,
00:19:42.680 I think that they've overstated the Conservative lead
00:19:45.020 and they've understated the lead here.
00:19:47.200 They're only leading the Liberals with 30 to 44s by six points.
00:19:52.600 In a previous poll I've seen,
00:19:53.960 they were up nine points.
00:19:55.320 And with 45 to 59-year-olds,
00:19:57.060 they're only leading by four points.
00:19:58.560 I remember in a previous Abacus data poll,
00:20:01.020 the Conservatives were leading with one of these groups
00:20:02.820 by 12 and the other by nine.
00:20:04.880 I think they tend to flip-flop a little bit.
00:20:07.200 So right now,
00:20:08.040 we have a national poll
00:20:09.960 where the Conservatives are leading,
00:20:12.340 are not leading,
00:20:12.860 but they're tied with the Liberals
00:20:14.300 despite the Democratic issues here,
00:20:19.480 the demographic issues for the Conservatives.
00:20:21.680 Because if you were to rank the demographics
00:20:26.220 that you want to win
00:20:27.360 in order of importance
00:20:28.940 in terms of turnout
00:20:29.940 and like how Conservative they are,
00:20:33.880 you want 45 to 59-year-olds.
00:20:36.620 This is the number one demographic for Conservatives.
00:20:39.920 Number two is still 60 and over voters
00:20:42.940 because they turn out so much.
00:20:44.500 That's where you're getting a lot of bulk of your vote.
00:20:46.960 Third best is those millennial voters.
00:20:49.740 And the worst is younger voters.
00:20:52.460 It's the demographic
00:20:53.280 you honestly don't care a lot of the time
00:20:55.260 if you're leading with or not.
00:20:57.380 Because the things they don't turn out.
00:20:59.100 Young people,
00:20:59.880 if the turnout rate for an election,
00:21:01.800 let's say is 68, 69% like it was in April,
00:21:05.280 your turnout with younger people like that
00:21:08.320 might be only 40 or 35%.
00:21:10.340 But 60 and over voters,
00:21:12.120 they kind of make up for the fact
00:21:13.480 that they're actually a smaller group
00:21:14.700 than the Gen X
00:21:16.780 because they will turn out 75, 80%.
00:21:19.880 Gen X voters will turn out around 70%, 72%.
00:21:23.540 Millennials are going to turn out lower 60s or so.
00:21:26.580 And then the young people
00:21:27.600 really don't show up at all.
00:21:29.460 And so again,
00:21:30.620 Conservatives are leading
00:21:31.420 despite the math
00:21:32.840 not really being ideal for them here.
00:21:34.700 And now I want to take you guys
00:21:35.960 through one more result.
00:21:38.360 Actually, we're just going to slow it down here
00:21:39.900 for a second.
00:21:41.020 Why it's rambling too fast
00:21:42.460 and I'm realizing it.
00:21:43.660 I'm going to try and do
00:21:44.160 a little bit of a mental reset here
00:21:45.500 because I know I sometimes annoy people.
00:21:47.900 Talking slower now.
00:21:49.140 So what I want to do here
00:21:50.320 is we're going to reset
00:21:51.080 and then we're going to come back
00:21:52.440 with a chart of pure Poly's approval
00:21:54.380 because this is a big,
00:21:56.840 this is another big demonstration
00:21:58.920 of how much of an outlier this poll is
00:22:00.980 and how the demographics,
00:22:02.500 the sample is going against Poly up here
00:22:04.420 and yet he is still
00:22:05.960 in punching distance
00:22:06.800 of winning an election.
00:22:08.240 Based on the regionals here
00:22:09.520 from Sheree Attiste I saw,
00:22:11.200 I think he said the election
00:22:12.260 would result in 153 seats
00:22:15.400 for the Liberals.
00:22:16.080 So there'd still be winning here,
00:22:17.620 but the Conservatives
00:22:18.240 would be at 151.
00:22:19.880 It's a nail-biter election
00:22:21.720 with every disadvantage
00:22:23.620 going the Conservatives' direction.
00:22:25.700 But anyways,
00:22:26.240 I'll clear this up
00:22:27.060 and then we'll come back
00:22:27.740 with Poly of the approval.
00:22:28.740 And so now finally
00:22:31.660 we are on to Pierre Poly's approval.
00:22:33.900 I want to take you guys
00:22:34.900 through the trend line
00:22:35.940 and I haven't put
00:22:36.600 the last trend line here yet.
00:22:38.340 I'm going to mark that down
00:22:39.160 in a second.
00:22:40.040 And then I also want to show you
00:22:40.960 what his net approval rating is
00:22:42.980 in the three swing regions,
00:22:45.680 Ontario, British Columbia,
00:22:47.060 and Atlantic Canada
00:22:47.960 as we had previously
00:22:48.960 been talking about.
00:22:50.200 So this again
00:22:51.640 is a very weird poll.
00:22:53.240 I keep basically
00:22:54.080 bringing up the context.
00:22:55.060 This is a poll
00:22:56.380 where the Conservatives
00:22:57.700 were tied with the Liberals
00:22:59.140 40 to 40
00:23:00.600 with regionals
00:23:03.140 that would have
00:23:04.180 the Conservatives
00:23:04.820 and the Liberals
00:23:05.580 basically also tied
00:23:06.940 when it comes to seat count.
00:23:08.640 They are not doing
00:23:09.580 as well in BC
00:23:10.240 as you usually would suspect,
00:23:11.880 but they're actually doing
00:23:12.820 pretty well in Ontario
00:23:13.860 and Atlantic Canada
00:23:15.140 considering, again,
00:23:16.460 all the demographics
00:23:17.540 going against them
00:23:18.880 in terms of age brackets.
00:23:20.260 They're tied despite the fact
00:23:22.100 that young people
00:23:22.720 tend to show up.
00:23:23.820 But so I want to take you guys
00:23:26.180 now through
00:23:26.920 the sort of
00:23:28.100 the approval rating
00:23:29.500 of Polyev
00:23:30.060 to demonstrate
00:23:30.620 just how much
00:23:31.980 of an outlier this is
00:23:33.000 and how good the result
00:23:33.920 is despite that.
00:23:35.240 So I want to first show you
00:23:37.300 how much
00:23:38.020 pure Polyev's approval
00:23:40.240 has collapsed
00:23:41.300 in this poll.
00:23:42.620 So in the last poll
00:23:43.720 that Abacus Data did,
00:23:45.280 Polyev had 39% approval,
00:23:47.280 43% disapproval.
00:23:49.420 It's not that bad
00:23:50.540 considering he had just
00:23:51.540 lost an election
00:23:52.180 back in April.
00:23:52.980 There's tons of
00:23:53.740 anti-Polyev media
00:23:55.060 propaganda out there.
00:23:56.480 So a lot of especially
00:23:57.820 left-wing Canadians
00:23:58.640 who don't vote conservative
00:23:59.680 are geared up
00:24:01.220 to say they hate his guts.
00:24:02.260 Where I find conservatives
00:24:03.160 are less likely
00:24:04.440 to say they hate
00:24:05.140 Mark Carney
00:24:05.700 even if they don't
00:24:06.400 vote for him.
00:24:07.000 They just don't agree
00:24:07.900 with him.
00:24:08.280 Where I find with
00:24:08.920 conservatives,
00:24:10.200 they, you know,
00:24:10.860 it's that he's a bad person.
00:24:12.560 That's why you can't
00:24:13.260 vote for him
00:24:13.800 because they honestly
00:24:14.900 can't argue
00:24:15.440 against your ideas.
00:24:16.580 But this poll
00:24:17.600 showed Polyev's
00:24:18.900 approval rating
00:24:19.680 falling down below
00:24:21.200 what it had been
00:24:21.900 for quite a while.
00:24:22.860 Like, I don't actually,
00:24:23.820 I think this is his
00:24:24.420 lowest rating
00:24:25.100 since, like,
00:24:26.200 he first became
00:24:27.100 the leader
00:24:27.520 and people didn't
00:24:28.060 know much about him.
00:24:28.940 Like, his approval
00:24:30.040 back then in 2022
00:24:31.480 and early 23
00:24:32.620 was only low
00:24:33.380 simply because
00:24:34.620 most people didn't
00:24:35.540 have an opinion at all.
00:24:37.080 In this poll,
00:24:38.320 Polyev fell down
00:24:39.320 all the way
00:24:40.360 to just
00:24:41.020 35% approval.
00:24:43.480 So he had lost
00:24:44.160 four points,
00:24:44.960 which is quite a lot
00:24:46.380 in between
00:24:46.960 just one poll.
00:24:48.760 So, like,
00:24:49.380 if you lost
00:24:49.840 four points
00:24:50.440 over a couple months,
00:24:51.600 that would make sense.
00:24:52.680 Four points
00:24:53.280 from the last poll
00:24:54.080 is quite a bit.
00:24:55.040 But his disapproval
00:24:56.040 rating went up
00:24:57.060 even more.
00:24:58.000 It went from
00:24:58.660 43%
00:24:59.980 and went up
00:25:01.220 all the way
00:25:02.400 to
00:25:03.600 49%
00:25:06.540 or actually,
00:25:07.860 sorry,
00:25:08.040 48%.
00:25:08.720 I think I over,
00:25:09.420 yeah,
00:25:09.580 I read that wrong.
00:25:10.780 But still,
00:25:11.740 a 4% increase
00:25:13.420 or 5% increase
00:25:14.820 in his disapproval
00:25:15.940 and a 4% decrease
00:25:17.560 in his approval,
00:25:18.960 the gap there
00:25:20.140 between the two
00:25:20.860 would be representative
00:25:21.800 of probably
00:25:22.620 a couple people
00:25:23.260 who now became
00:25:23.920 undecided
00:25:24.760 rather than
00:25:25.680 switching from
00:25:26.300 approval
00:25:26.800 to disapproval.
00:25:28.620 So,
00:25:29.300 we have right now
00:25:30.600 a net approval
00:25:32.320 gap
00:25:32.940 of quite a bit
00:25:34.400 here.
00:25:35.020 What is this?
00:25:35.580 A negative
00:25:36.380 13% rating
00:25:37.840 right now,
00:25:38.400 a negative
00:25:38.700 12% rating
00:25:40.420 for Polyev
00:25:41.480 nationally.
00:25:43.320 And the
00:25:44.120 conservatives
00:25:44.620 still got
00:25:45.840 40%
00:25:46.860 despite this.
00:25:48.100 This is
00:25:48.620 not a
00:25:49.460 pro-Polyev
00:25:50.780 sample
00:25:51.680 that Abacus
00:25:52.780 Data pulled
00:25:53.420 here.
00:25:53.940 There's nothing
00:25:54.380 wrong with
00:25:54.800 Abacus Data.
00:25:55.420 You sometimes
00:25:55.840 just get
00:25:56.140 samples like
00:25:56.740 this.
00:25:57.300 But this
00:25:57.660 is an
00:25:57.980 anti-Polyev
00:25:58.900 sample
00:25:59.280 because nothing
00:25:59.820 has happened
00:26:00.340 in the last
00:26:01.280 month even
00:26:02.060 that would
00:26:02.700 indicate people
00:26:03.440 soured on
00:26:04.060 Polyev.
00:26:05.080 Maybe they
00:26:05.580 don't like
00:26:05.960 that he
00:26:06.440 supported
00:26:06.900 Trump in
00:26:07.320 the Maduro
00:26:07.800 thing.
00:26:08.740 I really
00:26:09.280 don't think
00:26:09.760 anyone cares.
00:26:10.740 I don't think
00:26:11.380 that that's
00:26:11.780 even a long
00:26:12.340 run story,
00:26:12.960 even if that's
00:26:13.600 explaining this.
00:26:14.360 But then
00:26:15.260 in Ontario,
00:26:16.360 let's go
00:26:16.860 through some
00:26:17.360 of these
00:26:17.740 regionals,
00:26:19.240 he's at a
00:26:20.760 negative 10%
00:26:21.820 rating in
00:26:22.900 Ontario, a
00:26:23.660 little bit
00:26:23.980 better than
00:26:24.300 the national.
00:26:25.220 But in
00:26:25.580 British Columbia,
00:26:26.340 he's at
00:26:26.660 negative 16%.
00:26:28.380 And in
00:26:29.140 Atlantic Canada,
00:26:30.400 he's at
00:26:30.740 negative 12%
00:26:31.600 right on the
00:26:32.240 dot of his
00:26:32.980 average.
00:26:34.340 Despite this,
00:26:35.480 his only positive
00:26:36.440 approval ratings
00:26:37.340 were with 18
00:26:38.400 to 29-year-olds
00:26:39.640 and in
00:26:40.520 Alberta and
00:26:41.140 Saskatchewan.
00:26:42.400 And despite
00:26:42.860 this, it
00:26:44.000 was a tie
00:26:44.600 vote.
00:26:45.340 This is an
00:26:46.080 inideal voter
00:26:47.980 sample for
00:26:49.500 basically modeling
00:26:50.500 an election.
00:26:51.420 And despite the
00:26:52.000 fact that this
00:26:52.660 is what the
00:26:53.100 turnout looked
00:26:53.700 like in terms
00:26:54.280 of people's
00:26:54.700 attitudes towards
00:26:55.540 Polyev and
00:26:56.800 their attitudes
00:26:57.220 towards Carney,
00:26:58.340 because Carney
00:26:58.740 also had an
00:26:59.620 increase in
00:27:00.160 popularity in
00:27:00.900 this poll,
00:27:01.860 the fact that
00:27:02.520 the Conservatives
00:27:04.180 are doing as
00:27:04.640 well as they
00:27:05.220 are here with
00:27:06.140 all of the
00:27:07.000 demographics going
00:27:07.860 against them
00:27:08.340 in this poll,
00:27:09.100 demonstrate there's
00:27:09.760 way more strength
00:27:10.900 inside the
00:27:11.320 Conservative Party
00:27:12.000 right now than
00:27:12.540 the Liberals.
00:27:13.460 The Liberals
00:27:13.940 have a problem.
00:27:15.220 They're kind of
00:27:15.800 a fractious party.
00:27:17.320 On the surface,
00:27:18.040 they tend to be
00:27:18.620 far more calm
00:27:19.560 than the Conservatives
00:27:20.360 in terms of
00:27:20.960 caucus cohesion
00:27:22.480 and just the
00:27:23.620 uniformity of
00:27:24.340 their voters,
00:27:25.240 but they have a
00:27:25.860 lot more
00:27:26.340 ideological problems.
00:27:29.120 Mark Carney's
00:27:29.840 trying to split
00:27:30.420 his agenda
00:27:30.980 right down the
00:27:31.500 middle.
00:27:31.740 He's trying to
00:27:32.200 please both the
00:27:32.940 Green Liberals
00:27:34.260 and the
00:27:34.960 business Liberals,
00:27:36.040 and it's just
00:27:36.480 not going to
00:27:37.040 happen.
00:27:37.320 His recent
00:27:38.300 China deal is
00:27:39.240 probably why
00:27:40.040 we're going to
00:27:40.440 start seeing
00:27:41.000 the Conservatives
00:27:41.840 open up a lead
00:27:42.760 in Ontario.
00:27:43.660 And remember,
00:27:44.120 this poll was
00:27:44.600 done before
00:27:45.180 the China deal.
00:27:46.280 Conservatives are
00:27:46.820 only a point
00:27:47.880 below the
00:27:48.420 Liberals prior
00:27:50.380 to the China
00:27:51.040 deal, and the
00:27:51.900 China deal just
00:27:52.700 screwed over
00:27:53.540 Ontario because
00:27:54.700 it's going to
00:27:55.260 start dumping
00:27:55.920 cheap Chinese
00:27:57.080 electric vehicles
00:27:57.940 in the Canadian
00:27:58.700 market, which
00:27:59.520 could destroy a
00:28:00.480 lot of the
00:28:01.100 EV manufacturers
00:28:02.080 in Ontario and
00:28:02.920 just hurt a lot
00:28:03.420 of the auto
00:28:03.900 sector in general.
00:28:05.220 This is not
00:28:05.740 normal competition.
00:28:06.740 Chinese firms
00:28:07.940 because they're
00:28:08.300 government-owned
00:28:08.940 are willing to
00:28:09.880 basically make
00:28:10.480 no profit just
00:28:11.480 to undermine
00:28:12.060 another free
00:28:13.260 market somewhere
00:28:13.920 else.
00:28:14.920 And so, yeah,
00:28:16.160 we're probably
00:28:16.640 going to start
00:28:17.020 seeing the
00:28:17.640 Liberals start
00:28:18.240 to soften in
00:28:19.780 Ontario.
00:28:20.660 And for what?
00:28:21.720 I guess they got
00:28:22.520 the tariffs
00:28:23.040 reduced on, I
00:28:24.480 think, canola oil
00:28:25.320 from 100% down
00:28:26.500 to 16% or
00:28:27.640 something like
00:28:28.100 that.
00:28:28.780 What you're
00:28:29.460 probably then
00:28:30.000 going to see
00:28:30.500 from that is
00:28:31.560 that the Liberals
00:28:32.200 will gain,
00:28:32.720 let's say,
00:28:33.260 even five points
00:28:34.380 in Saskatchewan.
00:28:35.880 Which seats
00:28:36.500 do they pick
00:28:36.960 up with a
00:28:37.420 5% increase?
00:28:39.160 Maybe one
00:28:39.760 Regina seat,
00:28:41.140 but what is it
00:28:42.040 now they have
00:28:42.420 two seats in
00:28:43.120 Saskatchewan?
00:28:44.280 And they're
00:28:45.040 going to
00:28:45.260 sacrifice
00:28:45.740 potentially a
00:28:46.760 dozen or
00:28:47.420 more Ontario
00:28:48.420 seats.
00:28:49.620 And right now,
00:28:50.220 because of,
00:28:51.440 I find,
00:28:52.020 like, just
00:28:52.420 like an
00:28:53.220 increase in
00:28:54.680 socially
00:28:55.320 conservative
00:28:55.780 culture,
00:28:56.580 I think you're
00:28:57.020 also going to
00:28:57.440 see the
00:28:57.700 Conservatives
00:28:58.120 start to
00:28:58.620 actually do
00:28:59.540 really well in
00:29:00.300 Atlantic Canada
00:29:01.060 these days.
00:29:01.900 If you want
00:29:02.500 to win
00:29:02.740 Atlantic Canada,
00:29:03.420 you actually
00:29:03.780 need to go
00:29:04.220 socially
00:29:04.620 conservative.
00:29:05.380 It's just
00:29:05.700 a socially
00:29:06.180 conservative
00:29:06.640 region.
00:29:08.180 And again,
00:29:08.880 this is all,
00:29:10.220 this is,
00:29:10.680 like,
00:29:11.140 the worst
00:29:11.660 possible scenario
00:29:12.540 for the
00:29:12.900 Conservatives
00:29:13.320 in terms of
00:29:13.840 the people
00:29:14.220 being sampled.
00:29:15.080 They all hate
00:29:15.500 Polyev and
00:29:16.320 they're still
00:29:16.580 voting for him.
00:29:17.940 Now imagine
00:29:18.500 a sample that
00:29:19.100 kind of likes
00:29:19.700 them,
00:29:20.140 that maybe has
00:29:20.780 his approval
00:29:21.180 at 39%
00:29:22.060 like the
00:29:22.440 previous month
00:29:22.980 and disapproval
00:29:23.560 at 43%.
00:29:24.500 Probably have
00:29:25.320 the Conservatives
00:29:25.840 leading at 43%
00:29:26.880 and the Liberals
00:29:27.640 at 39% or
00:29:28.460 even just 40%,
00:29:29.500 but that's more
00:29:30.440 than enough
00:29:30.860 to win a
00:29:31.340 majority
00:29:31.740 government
00:29:32.180 for Polyev's
00:29:33.020 Conservatives.
00:29:34.400 But anyways,
00:29:34.920 thank you guys
00:29:35.440 for watching
00:29:36.060 this video
00:29:36.860 breakdown today.
00:29:38.120 Hopefully you
00:29:38.660 like how I do
00:29:39.280 all this stuff.
00:29:39.880 If you do
00:29:40.320 and you want
00:29:40.700 to support
00:29:41.060 the show
00:29:41.400 financially,
00:29:42.160 you can always
00:29:42.740 hit the join
00:29:43.280 button below
00:29:43.900 the video.
00:29:44.820 Join the
00:29:45.120 membership
00:29:45.420 program that
00:29:46.120 helps make
00:29:46.580 the channel
00:29:46.960 more sustainable.
00:29:48.120 I have the
00:29:48.500 tiers pretty low
00:29:49.260 so you can
00:29:49.600 throw in like
00:29:50.160 five bucks a
00:29:51.260 month and I
00:29:51.660 think YouTube
00:29:52.120 gives me like
00:29:52.960 $3.50 of it
00:29:53.900 or something like
00:29:54.440 that.
00:29:55.040 I think the
00:29:55.600 other options
00:29:56.100 are around
00:29:56.400 like $10 or
00:29:57.400 so.
00:29:57.760 I actually
00:29:58.100 don't know
00:29:58.540 exactly what
00:29:59.080 the cost
00:30:00.860 tiers lower.
00:30:02.420 You don't
00:30:02.640 have to
00:30:02.900 contribute if
00:30:03.420 you don't
00:30:03.720 want to.
00:30:04.300 Just liking
00:30:04.740 the video,
00:30:05.640 subscribing,
00:30:06.580 commenting,
00:30:07.120 and sharing
00:30:07.580 it does more
00:30:08.440 than enough
00:30:08.860 for me already
00:30:09.520 but it helps
00:30:10.620 kind of like
00:30:11.060 the membership
00:30:11.460 helps me ride
00:30:12.180 through the
00:30:12.560 really rocky
00:30:13.140 bits of the
00:30:13.640 year where
00:30:14.100 revenues just
00:30:15.040 hit the floor
00:30:15.680 because advertisers
00:30:17.120 don't really
00:30:17.860 spend a lot
00:30:18.580 after Christmas
00:30:20.260 and whatnot.
00:30:21.740 But with that
00:30:22.520 all being said,
00:30:23.580 thank you guys
00:30:24.100 for watching
00:30:24.640 and I will
00:30:25.180 see you all
00:30:26.080 later.