The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Poilievre Looks Stronger Than Mark Carney in NEW poll - CPC LPC tie at 40%

00:00:00.080 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back again to talk about some more Canadian national polling numbers.

00:00:07.360 On the show today, we're going to go through an Abacus data poll that I think shows a lot of strength for Pierre Polyev's Conservatives,

00:00:15.800 despite the demographics actually leaning more liberal in this poll than what I think a normal Canadian electorate would actually look like.

00:00:24.440 I'll get to what I mean by that in just a second, but before we get into the numbers, I just want to remind you guys,

00:00:30.640 if you like the show, make sure to leave a like on the video, subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber,

00:00:36.040 leave a comment about what you think about all this, and if you want to support the show,

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00:00:48.920 But now, without further ado, let's get into the top-line numbers from this recent Abacus data poll.

00:00:56.440 Now, they're not that exciting on the surface, but as we go below in terms of regional demographics as well as age brackets,

00:01:05.020 you'll see why this is such a good poll for Pierre Polyev's Conservatives.

00:01:09.300 Starting out, we have the Liberals in this poll, polling up to 40%.

00:01:14.300 Now, remember, they ended up getting 43% in the last federal election, so they have softened a little bit in the polling.

00:01:23.700 I think as Canadians are seeing them not really achieve too much, they're having some of those voters along the margins

00:01:28.960 really paying attention, starting to, you know, at least pull back their Liberal vote.

00:01:33.880 Maybe they're not switching over to Conservatives quite yet, but they're becoming undecided these days.

00:01:39.100 A lot of these polls usually have four or five points of people who don't really know where their vote's going to go right now.

00:01:45.580 And then, followed behind the Liberals, or effectively tied, we have the Conservatives, who are also at 40%.

00:01:53.180 I think in the decimal points, they might be slightly behind, but they're within the margin of error,

00:01:58.640 which means they are, in effect, tied.

00:02:01.420 So we have the Conservatives there also at 40%.

00:02:05.100 This poll then has the NDP followed behind now at 8%.

00:02:13.220 Remember, they only got 6% in the last federal election, so even this is an improvement for them.

00:02:17.640 And they are still leaderless at the moment, so you can't really judge them too hard based on how they're polling at the moment.

00:02:24.340 Once they likely either have Heather McPherson, who is a sitting NDP, MP, take the leadership, 0.82

00:02:31.600 or one of the outsider candidates like Avi Lewis or Rob Ashton win,

00:02:35.440 you will probably see an upward trend for the NDP after around March when the new leader is selected.

00:02:43.420 And then, after the NDP, we have the Blocs, Quebecois, who are a little bit behind them,

00:02:49.320 but obviously they only run in Quebec, and the Bloc is at 7%,

00:02:53.780 which is actually a point better than they did in the last election,

00:02:57.080 and because, again, all that is concentrated in the province of Quebec would have them win back a few seats.

00:03:03.180 The Greens probably had a bit of an overperformance in this poll,

00:03:06.740 but they ended up clocking in at 3%,

00:03:10.060 and if you want me to go over the PPC numbers,

00:03:13.500 they are what they always are.

00:03:15.000 They are at 1% right now.

00:03:16.820 Other in the poll was at 1%.

00:03:18.420 I don't see the PPC actually surviving this next election.

00:03:23.540 They were already only at 0.7% in the last election.

00:03:28.320 They're not going to gain.

00:03:29.620 There's really no room for them to gain.

00:03:31.640 If anything, Polyev has become more right-wing since the election on topics like immigration,

00:03:37.040 the economy, you know, just foreign policy, a lot of that stuff.

00:03:41.480 He is more to the right,

00:03:43.360 which means how does the PPC win back any of its support?

00:03:46.220 I assume that the party is going to go bankrupt.

00:03:48.840 They're not going to run many candidates next election,

00:03:50.920 and then they'll effectively go away at that point,

00:03:53.220 which means not only will the Conservatives pick up the 1%, the PPC likely has,

00:03:59.380 but they'll probably actually do even better than that,

00:04:01.720 simply because all the volunteers who may have wasted time working with the PPC,

00:04:06.880 I've worked with small parties.

00:04:08.100 I don't necessarily always think it's a waste of time helping small parties.

00:04:11.660 I door knocked for the new blue party in the provincial election in Ontario

00:04:15.460 because I don't like Doug Ford's PCs.

00:04:17.720 But the thing is, when the bigger party is doing a good job

00:04:21.600 and brings some of those people back over,

00:04:23.620 some of those people might be your best volunteers.

00:04:25.620 The type of people who volunteer for a small party are hardcore,

00:04:29.600 and when they go from the PPC back to the CPC,

00:04:32.400 that's going to probably generate thousands of more doors knocked

00:04:35.920 in many of these battleground ridings.

00:04:38.000 But I just want to give a little bit more context to this

00:04:40.700 before we jump over to the regionals

00:04:44.000 to demonstrate why this is such a great poll for Pierre Polyev.

00:04:46.860 Now, since the last time Abacus did a poll,

00:04:51.340 the Liberals had fallen by 1%,

00:04:54.240 the Conservatives had fallen by 1%,

00:04:56.800 the NDP had also fallen by 1%,

00:05:00.240 and I think the only parties that ended up gaining here

00:05:03.660 was the Bloc Québécois jumping up 1% to their 7% rate,

00:05:09.040 and we had the Greens jumping up 1% as well,

00:05:12.420 which I think is a bit of an over-poll.

00:05:14.800 What's going on here, and especially what's indicated by

00:05:17.680 other being at 1,

00:05:20.300 is that probably people are just in a bit of a holding pattern right now.

00:05:23.900 Remember, this does not include the undecideds.

00:05:26.500 This is after all of the undecideds are taken out,

00:05:29.860 and you've reallocated which parties certain voters

00:05:32.440 are maybe leaning towards if they are not fully decided yet.

00:05:35.600 What you're probably seeing is about maybe even 10% of people held back

00:05:40.300 who have not decided who they're going to support.

00:05:43.040 But remember, since the election,

00:05:45.680 the Conservatives are only down by about 1.3%, 1.2%.

00:05:49.660 The Liberals are down by 3.5%.

00:05:53.240 They are way further down since the election than the Conservatives are,

00:05:57.360 and it is benefiting both the NDP and the Bloc Québécois.

00:06:01.980 The Conservatives already have as many seats in Quebec

00:06:04.800 as they are ever going to win.

00:06:06.580 It doesn't mean you don't try in Quebec.

00:06:08.520 It means you don't have to fear the Quebec vote

00:06:10.760 if you're the Conservatives.

00:06:12.140 You can run on some stuff that may even be controversial in that province.

00:06:16.280 The Conservatives win the more libertarian,

00:06:19.060 more small government Conservative seats in that province.

00:06:22.340 It's not going to change if they even take a side against supply management.

00:06:26.720 It's just not going to happen.

00:06:27.980 They could actually run on that and gain support.

00:06:30.380 It doesn't mean there are.

00:06:31.320 Maybe they still just don't want to.

00:06:33.180 But run on something big.

00:06:35.220 Like, run on some big stuff.

00:06:36.320 And even if it kind of goes against the Quebec political culture,

00:06:39.400 which tends to be a little bit more big government,

00:06:42.340 a little bit more, like, socialistic,

00:06:45.520 you can run on a big tax cut.

00:06:47.440 You can run on a health care reform.

00:06:49.160 And you might lose a point in Quebec, a few points in Quebec.

00:06:53.100 You're still going to hold on to the ridings you already have.

00:06:55.540 And guess what?

00:06:56.160 It's going to benefit the Bloc. 0.97

00:06:57.420 Look, the Conservative voters are not going to go vote Liberal.

00:07:00.440 They'll probably go vote Bloc first. 0.85

00:07:02.380 So what's really the harm in running on a more bold,

00:07:05.620 small government Conservative platform,

00:07:07.540 even if it's kind of out of step with how Quebec voters

00:07:10.300 would usually want you to move in?

00:07:12.860 But now I want to move on to some of the demographic polling

00:07:17.440 and the regional polling to demonstrate, again,

00:07:20.260 why this is such a good poll for the Conservatives.

00:07:22.060 And then I want to talk a bit about Pierre Paglia's approval

00:07:25.100 and disapproval numbers that are indicative of the Conservatives

00:07:28.360 doing well in this poll,

00:07:29.940 despite the fact that the sample of this poll

00:07:32.120 seems more left-wing than a typical Abacus data sample.

00:07:35.960 I'll just clear the board and we'll be back in one second.

00:07:39.540 We're back and we're going to start with the regionals

00:07:42.820 before I jump into the age brackets.

00:07:45.280 So these three regions are really the swing regions of Canada.

00:07:50.380 We're not really that interested in seeing

00:07:52.520 what's going to go on in Saskatchewan, Alberta,

00:07:55.600 or Quebec.

00:07:56.480 Quebec is a different environment.

00:07:58.240 We don't really have to care about it too much.

00:07:59.680 But these are the main battlegrounds between

00:08:01.600 the Liberals, Conservatives, and the NDP.

00:08:05.020 British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada.

00:08:08.720 Now, this is where the poll's kind of weird

00:08:11.040 and it makes it a bit of an outlier.

00:08:13.260 But it's an outlier that should be benefiting the Liberals.

00:08:16.880 Obviously, an outlier is whenever polls,

00:08:19.300 just based on the numbers you get back,

00:08:23.000 it's clear that this is probably not fully representative of the country.

00:08:26.340 We over-polled too many urban voters, maybe.

00:08:28.780 We over-polled too many people from a public sector background.

00:08:33.180 Stuff like that could cause something to be an over-poll or an outlier poll.

00:08:37.760 You know, like, if you polled too many rural people,

00:08:40.320 you could make the Conservatives look like they're doing way better than they actually are.

00:08:43.780 Oftentimes, it happens in reverse, where it's urban voters that are over-polled

00:08:48.180 and rural voters don't pick up the phone as much.

00:08:50.500 It's called a response bias,

00:08:52.020 which means that you'll have these massive misses in, like,

00:08:55.000 provincial elections in Saskatchewan,

00:08:56.860 where all of the voters that you called were pretty much urban voters.

00:09:01.300 And even if they're in a rural area,

00:09:03.460 they're the person who's a schoolteacher in a small town,

00:09:05.760 which isn't representative of all the farmers in the region.

00:09:09.540 But I want to take you guys through these different regions,

00:09:12.500 and you'll see what I mean in just a second.

00:09:14.660 So in British Columbia,

00:09:16.320 we actually have the Liberals winning that province with 41% of the vote,

00:09:24.140 followed up by, obviously, the Conservatives,

00:09:26.920 who have 37%,

00:09:28.920 and then the NDP,

00:09:32.080 who is grabbing 14%.

00:09:34.940 And I guess I can also tack the Greens onto British Columbia, 0.51

00:09:38.460 because, hey, it's B.C. where Elizabeth May is, 0.99

00:09:40.960 so they tend to do better in this province.

00:09:43.140 So we'll throw on their 5% here as well.

00:09:47.520 Now, if the Conservatives are doing well in a poll,

00:09:50.760 you would actually assume that in B.C.,

00:09:54.140 that's the province you are going to see the Conservatives leading.

00:09:56.760 But no, not in this poll.

00:09:58.220 The Liberals are leading by 4% here.

00:10:01.220 But now let's jump over to Ontario.

00:10:04.660 Now, remember that in the last federal election,

00:10:07.920 the Liberals won Ontario with 49% of the vote,

00:10:11.020 and the Conservatives had like 43.5% or something like that.

00:10:15.220 They won Ontario by quite a margin.

00:10:18.000 But not in this poll.

00:10:19.520 In fact, in this poll,

00:10:21.000 while the Liberals are leading,

00:10:22.960 their lead is way, way down.

00:10:25.680 And this is a really bad sign for the Liberals,

00:10:28.460 who need to absolutely run the score up in this province.

00:10:31.600 So they're down 5 points since Election Day at 44%.

00:10:35.100 And the Conservatives,

00:10:36.780 and this has kind of become a trend with Polyev's Conservatives,

00:10:39.300 they haven't moved up or down pretty at all.

00:10:42.640 They're just at 43 exactly where they were on election night.

00:10:47.120 And then we have the NDP having clawed back a few percentage points,

00:10:51.860 getting back to 8%.

00:10:53.900 They were only at 4% on election night,

00:10:56.660 and now they are back to 8%.

00:10:58.700 And then in Atlantic Canada,

00:11:01.100 this is another province where the Liberals got like 52% on election night,

00:11:05.620 and the Conservatives got around 42%.

00:11:07.940 But here, the Liberals, again leading,

00:11:11.220 but they are at 45% of the vote only.

00:11:15.260 They have fallen 7 points since election night,

00:11:17.800 with the Conservatives having, again,

00:11:20.400 maintained their vote with 42%.

00:11:22.700 And the NDP going from, I think,

00:11:26.240 only like three or four or something like that,

00:11:29.240 again, up to 8%.

00:11:30.860 And I guess I can highlight this as well,

00:11:32.920 because it's another, you know,

00:11:34.860 over-performing region for them.

00:11:37.360 The Greens, who used to have a seat a couple of elections ago

00:11:40.620 in Atlantic Canada,

00:11:42.040 they are at 3% here.

00:11:44.880 This is fantastic news for the Conservatives,

00:11:48.540 because, again, Ontario is the area where the Liberals 44% here.

00:11:55.060 That is pretty much all concentrated in Toronto and the GTA.

00:11:59.600 Yeah, they have a couple of rural ridings,

00:12:02.560 border in Quebec,

00:12:03.480 that are supply management ridings they hold on to.

00:12:06.180 Sure, they still grab up some of the ridings in Hamilton.

00:12:09.900 They grab up ridings out in Niagara.

00:12:13.380 Whatever.

00:12:13.940 They can have them.

00:12:14.780 But the problem is when the election is getting this close in Ontario,

00:12:20.300 that 43% outweighs that 44%.

00:12:23.660 This is a bad sign for the Liberals,

00:12:26.040 because in downtown Toronto,

00:12:28.060 the Liberals will keep dominating.

00:12:29.880 In Ottawa, the Liberals will keep dominating.

00:12:33.140 But that means, disproportionately,

00:12:35.240 that 44% is invested in winning a very specific grouping of seats,

00:12:40.120 where the Conservatives 43% tends to be more thinly spread out in such a way

00:12:45.400 where they pick up way more seats than the Liberals.

00:12:47.760 In Atlantic Canada,

00:12:49.180 the Liberals will still win more seats than the Conservatives.

00:12:51.920 But if we're at this point,

00:12:53.620 this is getting to an election result where the Liberals,

00:12:57.240 I think there's like 24 seats or something like that in Atlantic Canada,

00:13:00.440 might be like 32 or whatever, 35.

00:13:03.420 I don't know the exact numbers.

00:13:04.940 But this is where the Liberals are maybe only winning five more seats

00:13:07.860 than the Conservatives.

00:13:08.660 And this is why I consider it a swing area.

00:13:12.820 The Liberals need to basically sweep Atlantic Canada

00:13:15.940 to be in a majority government territory.

00:13:18.060 And then they need to almost sweep Ontario.

00:13:20.360 Not like fully,

00:13:21.120 but they need to be winning two-thirds of the seats in Ontario.

00:13:24.080 If they're going 50-50 with the Conservatives,

00:13:26.160 they're in trouble.

00:13:27.480 And right now, again, in Quebec,

00:13:29.080 that's not going to be the blood bag that they think it is.

00:13:31.300 That's not going to be their IV bag,

00:13:33.200 because the Bloc's doing better,

00:13:34.680 which means they're playing purely defensive

00:13:36.540 in the Montreal suburbs area.

00:13:38.660 And they could end up having a lot of their,

00:13:41.020 you know, the gains that they make in a province like that wiped out.

00:13:44.900 And now they're having to rely on these other provinces

00:13:47.200 where they're not doing so hot.

00:13:48.940 The brightest point for the Liberals is British Columbia,

00:13:52.640 that they only won by a few points over the Conservatives last time.

00:13:56.180 And they actually may have increased their margin here.

00:13:58.760 But this is what I mean.

00:13:59.820 It's actually kind of a strange pull.

00:14:01.420 The Liberals are doing better in British Columbia

00:14:03.880 than Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

00:14:07.200 This feels like in certain areas

00:14:09.100 where the Conservatives should be doing better,

00:14:11.060 they actually over-polled the Liberals.

00:14:13.620 But now I'm going to clear this,

00:14:15.060 and we're going to come back with the age brackets.

00:14:17.060 That's really going to reveal kind of what happened here.

00:14:20.180 A lot of the Conservative strengths have been muted in this poll.

00:14:23.620 And even though their strengths are muted,

00:14:25.780 they're still doing far better than you would ever expect.

00:14:28.200 It's a national tie with a turnout sample

00:14:32.080 that looks like it should be benefiting the Liberals more.

00:14:37.260 So now we're back with the age brackets.

00:14:40.300 And I want to start in reverse order

00:14:42.320 from 16 over back down to 18 to 29,

00:14:45.520 because the 18 to 29 result is kind of weird to me.

00:14:49.160 And this is where, again, I'm getting indications it's an outlier,

00:14:52.600 but an outlier that should be benefiting the Liberals.

00:14:55.160 So we have 60 and over going Liberal 52%.

00:15:00.860 Now, I know if you're above the age of 60

00:15:03.240 and you're watching this video, it's not your fault.

00:15:07.460 It's some people in gated communities in the GTA

00:15:10.940 who think the Liberals are the best thing since sliced bread,

00:15:14.160 and they do not want to change their vote.

00:15:16.040 Although this is an over-poll for the Liberals.

00:15:19.020 52% is pretty crazy.

00:15:20.880 And the fact that Atlantic Canada was this close

00:15:23.800 considering the over-60 demographic poll,

00:15:26.860 like the sample, is pretty nuts,

00:15:29.300 because obviously the Maritimes is the oldest region in Canada on average.

00:15:33.400 But we have 52% for the Liberals,

00:15:36.040 32% only for the Conservatives,

00:15:39.380 and we have then 5% for the NDP.

00:15:43.660 And we'll even include the Bloc Québécois here,

00:15:45.860 who is a demographically older party as well,

00:15:48.820 and they are at 9%.

00:15:50.320 That's also why the Liberals have to be careful in Quebec

00:15:54.360 of losing votes,

00:15:56.360 because a lot of voters who might...

00:15:59.560 Like, the problem is that the strength,

00:16:01.860 the demographic strength that the Liberals have in Quebec is muted,

00:16:05.040 because older voters tend to vote Bloc Québécois disproportionately.

00:16:09.560 And because younger voters are moving Conservative,

00:16:11.940 every vote that the Liberals are losing

00:16:13.980 is going towards the Conservatives out there,

00:16:17.080 or it's a demographic they're actually not that good with overall

00:16:20.460 that they have to rely on in Quebec.

00:16:22.440 That's how I'm trying to say that.

00:16:24.100 But now we go down to 45% to 59%, the Gen X voters, 0.98

00:16:27.600 and they are going 43% Conservative.

00:16:31.540 Conservatives are leading here by 4 points over the Liberals,

00:16:34.800 who have 39%.

00:16:36.840 Then we have 6% for the NDP.

00:16:40.680 You'll notice the NDP goes up as the demos get younger,

00:16:43.380 and the Bloc Québécois at 7% here.

00:16:48.120 Then going to 30% to 44%, primarily, mostly Millennials,

00:16:52.400 we have the Conservatives leading again with 41%,

00:16:57.140 and although that's a lower number,

00:16:58.680 they're actually leading by more,

00:17:00.440 because we then have the NDP at...

00:17:03.220 or the Liberals only at 35%.

00:17:05.380 And then we have the NDP going up again at 9% with Millennials.

00:17:13.200 Then once we go down to the super young voters,

00:17:16.120 the Zoomer voters,

00:17:17.300 we then have the Conservatives at 50%,

00:17:21.160 with the Liberals only at 27%.

00:17:26.160 And naturally there...

00:17:28.060 Oh, I forgot to put it in the Bloc Québécois here.

00:17:30.080 There are 8% for the Millennials.

00:17:32.840 And then we have the NDP at 14% with youth voters.

00:17:40.240 I think that's actually going to hold once they get a new leader,

00:17:43.140 especially if they're social media savvy,

00:17:44.720 because Jagme Singh and Warren himself out so much.

00:17:47.320 And then the Bloc Québécois here,

00:17:49.160 as I was indicating with the age of the party,

00:17:51.280 they're only at 2% with those 18 to 29.

00:17:55.460 Now, what you can kind of...

00:17:57.740 What you're probably seeing here is an obvious controversial age gap

00:18:02.960 between who votes Conservative and who votes Liberal.

00:18:06.240 The problem with this is it's actually really overstated.

00:18:10.120 The thing is that in this chart,

00:18:12.820 the Conservatives are doing super well with the young voters

00:18:15.500 and the Liberals are doing super well with the older voters.

00:18:19.140 The thing is, though,

00:18:20.020 that young voters are actually not usually a Conservative demographic.

00:18:23.260 Now, 60 and over voters tend to vote Liberal overall.

00:18:27.580 The Liberal Party's always been the older left-wing party

00:18:30.760 and the NDP is the younger left-wing party.

00:18:33.320 But this is a gap that I don't think is realistic.

00:18:37.340 I don't think that since the last election,

00:18:40.920 somehow older voters are voting for the Liberals even harder,

00:18:44.200 because many of the things promised

00:18:46.000 that would have turned out retired voters,

00:18:48.600 like taking on Donald Trump, has not happened.

00:18:50.860 That he has not done a good job on that promise.

00:18:53.320 So I don't think that he's going to increase his lead

00:18:56.020 because it was tighter in the actual federal election.

00:18:59.320 And then with younger voters,

00:19:00.460 I also actually don't think the Conservatives are doing this well either.

00:19:04.120 But the thing is,

00:19:04.940 it's not the demographic you want to be doing well with 0.99

00:19:07.380 if you had to choose one.

00:19:08.760 If you want to choose demographics to be doing well with,

00:19:11.640 you want these two.

00:19:13.440 You want the middle-aged voters right here 0.96

00:19:15.760 because they are the biggest portion of the population

00:19:19.140 and they also have like the,

00:19:22.700 one, they turn out and vote

00:19:23.820 and they're the biggest portion of the population.

00:19:26.680 The thing was with young voters,

00:19:28.440 typically you only see a lead with the Conservatives

00:19:31.100 about five to seven points.

00:19:33.680 Usually it's like the Conservatives are at 45,

00:19:36.700 Liberals are at like 40,

00:19:38.360 and then the NDP is at like 15% or so.

00:19:41.580 But the thing is here,

00:19:42.680 I think that they've overstated the Conservative lead

00:19:45.020 and they've understated the lead here.

00:19:47.200 They're only leading the Liberals with 30 to 44s by six points.

00:19:52.600 In a previous poll I've seen,

00:19:53.960 they were up nine points.

00:19:55.320 And with 45 to 59-year-olds,

00:19:57.060 they're only leading by four points.

00:19:58.560 I remember in a previous Abacus data poll,

00:20:01.020 the Conservatives were leading with one of these groups

00:20:02.820 by 12 and the other by nine.

00:20:04.880 I think they tend to flip-flop a little bit.

00:20:07.200 So right now,

00:20:08.040 we have a national poll

00:20:09.960 where the Conservatives are leading,

00:20:12.340 are not leading,

00:20:12.860 but they're tied with the Liberals

00:20:14.300 despite the Democratic issues here,

00:20:19.480 the demographic issues for the Conservatives.

00:20:21.680 Because if you were to rank the demographics

00:20:26.220 that you want to win

00:20:27.360 in order of importance

00:20:28.940 in terms of turnout

00:20:29.940 and like how Conservative they are,

00:20:33.880 you want 45 to 59-year-olds.

00:20:36.620 This is the number one demographic for Conservatives.

00:20:39.920 Number two is still 60 and over voters

00:20:42.940 because they turn out so much.

00:20:44.500 That's where you're getting a lot of bulk of your vote.

00:20:46.960 Third best is those millennial voters.

00:20:49.740 And the worst is younger voters.

00:20:52.460 It's the demographic

00:20:53.280 you honestly don't care a lot of the time

00:20:55.260 if you're leading with or not.

00:20:57.380 Because the things they don't turn out.

00:20:59.100 Young people,

00:20:59.880 if the turnout rate for an election,

00:21:01.800 let's say is 68, 69% like it was in April,

00:21:05.280 your turnout with younger people like that

00:21:08.320 might be only 40 or 35%.

00:21:10.340 But 60 and over voters,

00:21:12.120 they kind of make up for the fact

00:21:13.480 that they're actually a smaller group

00:21:14.700 than the Gen X

00:21:16.780 because they will turn out 75, 80%.

00:21:19.880 Gen X voters will turn out around 70%, 72%.

00:21:23.540 Millennials are going to turn out lower 60s or so.

00:21:26.580 And then the young people

00:21:27.600 really don't show up at all.

00:21:29.460 And so again,

00:21:30.620 Conservatives are leading

00:21:31.420 despite the math

00:21:32.840 not really being ideal for them here.

00:21:34.700 And now I want to take you guys

00:21:35.960 through one more result.

00:21:38.360 Actually, we're just going to slow it down here

00:21:39.900 for a second.

00:21:41.020 Why it's rambling too fast

00:21:42.460 and I'm realizing it.

00:21:43.660 I'm going to try and do

00:21:44.160 a little bit of a mental reset here

00:21:45.500 because I know I sometimes annoy people.

00:21:47.900 Talking slower now.

00:21:49.140 So what I want to do here

00:21:50.320 is we're going to reset

00:21:51.080 and then we're going to come back

00:21:52.440 with a chart of pure Poly's approval

00:21:54.380 because this is a big,

00:21:56.840 this is another big demonstration

00:21:58.920 of how much of an outlier this poll is

00:22:00.980 and how the demographics,

00:22:02.500 the sample is going against Poly up here

00:22:04.420 and yet he is still

00:22:05.960 in punching distance

00:22:06.800 of winning an election.

00:22:08.240 Based on the regionals here

00:22:09.520 from Sheree Attiste I saw,

00:22:11.200 I think he said the election

00:22:12.260 would result in 153 seats

00:22:15.400 for the Liberals.

00:22:16.080 So there'd still be winning here,

00:22:17.620 but the Conservatives

00:22:18.240 would be at 151.

00:22:19.880 It's a nail-biter election

00:22:21.720 with every disadvantage

00:22:23.620 going the Conservatives' direction.

00:22:25.700 But anyways,

00:22:26.240 I'll clear this up

00:22:27.060 and then we'll come back

00:22:27.740 with Poly of the approval.

00:22:28.740 And so now finally

00:22:31.660 we are on to Pierre Poly's approval.

00:22:33.900 I want to take you guys

00:22:34.900 through the trend line

00:22:35.940 and I haven't put

00:22:36.600 the last trend line here yet.

00:22:38.340 I'm going to mark that down

00:22:39.160 in a second.

00:22:40.040 And then I also want to show you

00:22:40.960 what his net approval rating is

00:22:42.980 in the three swing regions,

00:22:45.680 Ontario, British Columbia,

00:22:47.060 and Atlantic Canada

00:22:47.960 as we had previously

00:22:48.960 been talking about.

00:22:50.200 So this again

00:22:51.640 is a very weird poll.

00:22:53.240 I keep basically

00:22:54.080 bringing up the context.

00:22:55.060 This is a poll

00:22:56.380 where the Conservatives

00:22:57.700 were tied with the Liberals

00:22:59.140 40 to 40

00:23:00.600 with regionals

00:23:03.140 that would have

00:23:04.180 the Conservatives

00:23:04.820 and the Liberals

00:23:05.580 basically also tied

00:23:06.940 when it comes to seat count.

00:23:08.640 They are not doing

00:23:09.580 as well in BC

00:23:10.240 as you usually would suspect,

00:23:11.880 but they're actually doing

00:23:12.820 pretty well in Ontario

00:23:13.860 and Atlantic Canada

00:23:15.140 considering, again,

00:23:16.460 all the demographics

00:23:17.540 going against them

00:23:18.880 in terms of age brackets.

00:23:20.260 They're tied despite the fact

00:23:22.100 that young people

00:23:22.720 tend to show up.

00:23:23.820 But so I want to take you guys

00:23:26.180 now through

00:23:26.920 the sort of

00:23:28.100 the approval rating

00:23:29.500 of Polyev

00:23:30.060 to demonstrate

00:23:30.620 just how much

00:23:31.980 of an outlier this is

00:23:33.000 and how good the result

00:23:33.920 is despite that.

00:23:35.240 So I want to first show you

00:23:37.300 how much

00:23:38.020 pure Polyev's approval

00:23:40.240 has collapsed

00:23:41.300 in this poll.

00:23:42.620 So in the last poll

00:23:43.720 that Abacus Data did,

00:23:45.280 Polyev had 39% approval,

00:23:47.280 43% disapproval.

00:23:49.420 It's not that bad

00:23:50.540 considering he had just

00:23:51.540 lost an election

00:23:52.180 back in April.

00:23:52.980 There's tons of

00:23:53.740 anti-Polyev media

00:23:55.060 propaganda out there.

00:23:56.480 So a lot of especially

00:23:57.820 left-wing Canadians

00:23:58.640 who don't vote conservative

00:23:59.680 are geared up 0.87

00:24:01.220 to say they hate his guts.

00:24:02.260 Where I find conservatives

00:24:03.160 are less likely

00:24:04.440 to say they hate

00:24:05.140 Mark Carney

00:24:05.700 even if they don't

00:24:06.400 vote for him.

00:24:07.000 They just don't agree

00:24:07.900 with him.

00:24:08.280 Where I find with

00:24:08.920 conservatives,

00:24:10.200 they, you know,

00:24:10.860 it's that he's a bad person.

00:24:12.560 That's why you can't

00:24:13.260 vote for him

00:24:13.800 because they honestly

00:24:14.900 can't argue

00:24:15.440 against your ideas.

00:24:16.580 But this poll

00:24:17.600 showed Polyev's

00:24:18.900 approval rating

00:24:19.680 falling down below

00:24:21.200 what it had been

00:24:21.900 for quite a while.

00:24:22.860 Like, I don't actually,

00:24:23.820 I think this is his

00:24:24.420 lowest rating

00:24:25.100 since, like,

00:24:26.200 he first became

00:24:27.100 the leader

00:24:27.520 and people didn't

00:24:28.060 know much about him.

00:24:28.940 Like, his approval

00:24:30.040 back then in 2022

00:24:31.480 and early 23

00:24:32.620 was only low

00:24:33.380 simply because

00:24:34.620 most people didn't

00:24:35.540 have an opinion at all.

00:24:37.080 In this poll,

00:24:38.320 Polyev fell down

00:24:39.320 all the way

00:24:40.360 to just

00:24:41.020 35% approval.

00:24:43.480 So he had lost

00:24:44.160 four points,

00:24:44.960 which is quite a lot

00:24:46.380 in between

00:24:46.960 just one poll.

00:24:48.760 So, like,

00:24:49.380 if you lost

00:24:49.840 four points

00:24:50.440 over a couple months,

00:24:51.600 that would make sense.

00:24:52.680 Four points

00:24:53.280 from the last poll

00:24:54.080 is quite a bit.

00:24:55.040 But his disapproval

00:24:56.040 rating went up

00:24:57.060 even more.

00:24:58.000 It went from

00:24:58.660 43%

00:24:59.980 and went up

00:25:01.220 all the way

00:25:02.400 to

00:25:03.600 49%

00:25:06.540 or actually,

00:25:07.860 sorry,

00:25:08.040 48%.

00:25:08.720 I think I over,

00:25:09.420 yeah,

00:25:09.580 I read that wrong.

00:25:10.780 But still,

00:25:11.740 a 4% increase

00:25:13.420 or 5% increase

00:25:14.820 in his disapproval

00:25:15.940 and a 4% decrease

00:25:17.560 in his approval,

00:25:18.960 the gap there

00:25:20.140 between the two

00:25:20.860 would be representative

00:25:21.800 of probably

00:25:22.620 a couple people

00:25:23.260 who now became

00:25:23.920 undecided

00:25:24.760 rather than

00:25:25.680 switching from

00:25:26.300 approval

00:25:26.800 to disapproval.

00:25:28.620 So,

00:25:29.300 we have right now

00:25:30.600 a net approval

00:25:32.320 gap

00:25:32.940 of quite a bit

00:25:34.400 here.

00:25:35.020 What is this?

00:25:35.580 A negative

00:25:36.380 13% rating

00:25:37.840 right now,

00:25:38.400 a negative

00:25:38.700 12% rating

00:25:40.420 for Polyev

00:25:41.480 nationally.

00:25:43.320 And the

00:25:44.120 conservatives

00:25:44.620 still got

00:25:45.840 40%

00:25:46.860 despite this.

00:25:48.100 This is

00:25:48.620 not a

00:25:49.460 pro-Polyev

00:25:50.780 sample

00:25:51.680 that Abacus

00:25:52.780 Data pulled

00:25:53.420 here.

00:25:53.940 There's nothing

00:25:54.380 wrong with

00:25:54.800 Abacus Data.

00:25:55.420 You sometimes

00:25:55.840 just get

00:25:56.140 samples like

00:25:56.740 this.

00:25:57.300 But this

00:25:57.660 is an

00:25:57.980 anti-Polyev

00:25:58.900 sample

00:25:59.280 because nothing

00:25:59.820 has happened

00:26:00.340 in the last

00:26:01.280 month even

00:26:02.060 that would

00:26:02.700 indicate people

00:26:03.440 soured on

00:26:04.060 Polyev.

00:26:05.080 Maybe they

00:26:05.580 don't like

00:26:05.960 that he

00:26:06.440 supported

00:26:06.900 Trump in

00:26:07.320 the Maduro

00:26:07.800 thing.

00:26:08.740 I really

00:26:09.280 don't think

00:26:09.760 anyone cares.

00:26:10.740 I don't think

00:26:11.380 that that's

00:26:11.780 even a long

00:26:12.340 run story,

00:26:12.960 even if that's

00:26:13.600 explaining this.

00:26:14.360 But then

00:26:15.260 in Ontario,

00:26:16.360 let's go

00:26:16.860 through some

00:26:17.360 of these

00:26:17.740 regionals,

00:26:19.240 he's at a

00:26:20.760 negative 10%

00:26:21.820 rating in

00:26:22.900 Ontario, a

00:26:23.660 little bit

00:26:23.980 better than

00:26:24.300 the national.

00:26:25.220 But in

00:26:25.580 British Columbia,

00:26:26.340 he's at

00:26:26.660 negative 16%.

00:26:28.380 And in

00:26:29.140 Atlantic Canada,

00:26:30.400 he's at

00:26:30.740 negative 12%

00:26:31.600 right on the

00:26:32.240 dot of his

00:26:32.980 average.

00:26:34.340 Despite this,

00:26:35.480 his only positive

00:26:36.440 approval ratings

00:26:37.340 were with 18

00:26:38.400 to 29-year-olds

00:26:39.640 and in

00:26:40.520 Alberta and

00:26:41.140 Saskatchewan.

00:26:42.400 And despite

00:26:42.860 this, it

00:26:44.000 was a tie

00:26:44.600 vote.

00:26:45.340 This is an

00:26:46.080 inideal voter

00:26:47.980 sample for

00:26:49.500 basically modeling

00:26:50.500 an election.

00:26:51.420 And despite the

00:26:52.000 fact that this

00:26:52.660 is what the

00:26:53.100 turnout looked

00:26:53.700 like in terms

00:26:54.280 of people's

00:26:54.700 attitudes towards

00:26:55.540 Polyev and

00:26:56.800 their attitudes

00:26:57.220 towards Carney,

00:26:58.340 because Carney

00:26:58.740 also had an

00:26:59.620 increase in

00:27:00.160 popularity in

00:27:00.900 this poll,

00:27:01.860 the fact that

00:27:02.520 the Conservatives

00:27:04.180 are doing as

00:27:04.640 well as they

00:27:05.220 are here with

00:27:06.140 all of the

00:27:07.000 demographics going

00:27:07.860 against them

00:27:08.340 in this poll,

00:27:09.100 demonstrate there's

00:27:09.760 way more strength

00:27:10.900 inside the

00:27:11.320 Conservative Party

00:27:12.000 right now than

00:27:12.540 the Liberals.

00:27:13.460 The Liberals

00:27:13.940 have a problem.

00:27:15.220 They're kind of

00:27:15.800 a fractious party.

00:27:17.320 On the surface,

00:27:18.040 they tend to be

00:27:18.620 far more calm

00:27:19.560 than the Conservatives

00:27:20.360 in terms of

00:27:20.960 caucus cohesion

00:27:22.480 and just the

00:27:23.620 uniformity of

00:27:24.340 their voters,

00:27:25.240 but they have a

00:27:25.860 lot more

00:27:26.340 ideological problems.

00:27:29.120 Mark Carney's

00:27:29.840 trying to split

00:27:30.420 his agenda

00:27:30.980 right down the

00:27:31.500 middle.

00:27:31.740 He's trying to

00:27:32.200 please both the

00:27:32.940 Green Liberals

00:27:34.260 and the

00:27:34.960 business Liberals,

00:27:36.040 and it's just

00:27:36.480 not going to

00:27:37.040 happen.

00:27:37.320 His recent

00:27:38.300 China deal is

00:27:39.240 probably why

00:27:40.040 we're going to

00:27:40.440 start seeing

00:27:41.000 the Conservatives

00:27:41.840 open up a lead

00:27:42.760 in Ontario.

00:27:43.660 And remember,

00:27:44.120 this poll was

00:27:44.600 done before

00:27:45.180 the China deal.

00:27:46.280 Conservatives are

00:27:46.820 only a point

00:27:47.880 below the

00:27:48.420 Liberals prior

00:27:50.380 to the China

00:27:51.040 deal, and the

00:27:51.900 China deal just 0.90

00:27:52.700 screwed over

00:27:53.540 Ontario because

00:27:54.700 it's going to

00:27:55.260 start dumping

00:27:55.920 cheap Chinese

00:27:57.080 electric vehicles

00:27:57.940 in the Canadian

00:27:58.700 market, which

00:27:59.520 could destroy a

00:28:00.480 lot of the

00:28:01.100 EV manufacturers

00:28:02.080 in Ontario and

00:28:02.920 just hurt a lot

00:28:03.420 of the auto

00:28:03.900 sector in general.

00:28:05.220 This is not

00:28:05.740 normal competition.

00:28:06.740 Chinese firms

00:28:07.940 because they're

00:28:08.300 government-owned

00:28:08.940 are willing to

00:28:09.880 basically make

00:28:10.480 no profit just

00:28:11.480 to undermine

00:28:12.060 another free

00:28:13.260 market somewhere

00:28:13.920 else.

00:28:14.920 And so, yeah,

00:28:16.160 we're probably

00:28:16.640 going to start

00:28:17.020 seeing the

00:28:17.640 Liberals start

00:28:18.240 to soften in

00:28:19.780 Ontario.

00:28:20.660 And for what?

00:28:21.720 I guess they got

00:28:22.520 the tariffs

00:28:23.040 reduced on, I

00:28:24.480 think, canola oil

00:28:25.320 from 100% down

00:28:26.500 to 16% or

00:28:27.640 something like

00:28:28.100 that.

00:28:28.780 What you're

00:28:29.460 probably then 0.74

00:28:30.000 going to see

00:28:30.500 from that is

00:28:31.560 that the Liberals

00:28:32.200 will gain,

00:28:32.720 let's say,

00:28:33.260 even five points

00:28:34.380 in Saskatchewan.

00:28:35.880 Which seats

00:28:36.500 do they pick

00:28:36.960 up with a

00:28:37.420 5% increase?

00:28:39.160 Maybe one

00:28:39.760 Regina seat,

00:28:41.140 but what is it

00:28:42.040 now they have

00:28:42.420 two seats in

00:28:43.120 Saskatchewan?

00:28:44.280 And they're

00:28:45.040 going to

00:28:45.260 sacrifice

00:28:45.740 potentially a

00:28:46.760 dozen or

00:28:47.420 more Ontario

00:28:48.420 seats.

00:28:49.620 And right now,

00:28:50.220 because of,

00:28:51.440 I find,

00:28:52.020 like, just

00:28:52.420 like an

00:28:53.220 increase in

00:28:54.680 socially

00:28:55.320 conservative

00:28:55.780 culture,

00:28:56.580 I think you're

00:28:57.020 also going to

00:28:57.440 see the

00:28:57.700 Conservatives

00:28:58.120 start to

00:28:58.620 actually do

00:28:59.540 really well in

00:29:00.300 Atlantic Canada

00:29:01.060 these days.

00:29:01.900 If you want

00:29:02.500 to win

00:29:02.740 Atlantic Canada,

00:29:03.420 you actually

00:29:03.780 need to go

00:29:04.220 socially

00:29:04.620 conservative.

00:29:05.380 It's just

00:29:05.700 a socially

00:29:06.180 conservative

00:29:06.640 region.

00:29:08.180 And again,

00:29:08.880 this is all,

00:29:10.220 this is,

00:29:10.680 like,

00:29:11.140 the worst

00:29:11.660 possible scenario

00:29:12.540 for the

00:29:12.900 Conservatives

00:29:13.320 in terms of

00:29:13.840 the people

00:29:14.220 being sampled.

00:29:15.080 They all hate

00:29:15.500 Polyev and

00:29:16.320 they're still

00:29:16.580 voting for him.

00:29:17.940 Now imagine

00:29:18.500 a sample that

00:29:19.100 kind of likes

00:29:19.700 them,

00:29:20.140 that maybe has

00:29:20.780 his approval

00:29:21.180 at 39%

00:29:22.060 like the

00:29:22.440 previous month

00:29:22.980 and disapproval

00:29:23.560 at 43%.

00:29:24.500 Probably have

00:29:25.320 the Conservatives

00:29:25.840 leading at 43%

00:29:26.880 and the Liberals

00:29:27.640 at 39% or

00:29:28.460 even just 40%,

00:29:29.500 but that's more

00:29:30.440 than enough

00:29:30.860 to win a

00:29:31.340 majority

00:29:31.740 government

00:29:32.180 for Polyev's

00:29:33.020 Conservatives.

00:29:34.400 But anyways,

00:29:34.920 thank you guys

00:29:35.440 for watching

00:29:36.060 this video

00:29:36.860 breakdown today.

00:29:38.120 Hopefully you

00:29:38.660 like how I do

00:29:39.280 all this stuff.

00:29:39.880 If you do

00:29:40.320 and you want

00:29:40.700 to support

00:29:41.060 the show

00:29:41.400 financially,

00:29:42.160 you can always

00:29:42.740 hit the join

00:29:43.280 button below

00:29:43.900 the video.

00:29:44.820 Join the

00:29:45.120 membership

00:29:45.420 program that

00:29:46.120 helps make

00:29:46.580 the channel

00:29:46.960 more sustainable.

00:29:48.120 I have the

00:29:48.500 tiers pretty low

00:29:49.260 so you can

00:29:49.600 throw in like

00:29:50.160 five bucks a

00:29:51.260 month and I

00:29:51.660 think YouTube

00:29:52.120 gives me like

00:29:52.960 $3.50 of it

00:29:53.900 or something like

00:29:54.440 that.

00:29:55.040 I think the

00:29:55.600 other options

00:29:56.100 are around

00:29:56.400 like $10 or

00:29:57.400 so.

00:29:57.760 I actually

00:29:58.100 don't know

00:29:58.540 exactly what

00:29:59.080 the cost

00:30:00.860 tiers lower.

00:30:02.420 You don't

00:30:02.640 have to

00:30:02.900 contribute if

00:30:03.420 you don't

00:30:03.720 want to.

00:30:04.300 Just liking

00:30:04.740 the video,

00:30:05.640 subscribing,

00:30:06.580 commenting,

00:30:07.120 and sharing

00:30:07.580 it does more

00:30:08.440 than enough

00:30:08.860 for me already

00:30:09.520 but it helps

00:30:10.620 kind of like

00:30:11.060 the membership

00:30:11.460 helps me ride

00:30:12.180 through the

00:30:12.560 really rocky

00:30:13.140 bits of the

00:30:13.640 year where

00:30:14.100 revenues just

00:30:15.040 hit the floor

00:30:15.680 because advertisers

00:30:17.120 don't really

00:30:17.860 spend a lot

00:30:18.580 after Christmas

00:30:20.260 and whatnot.

00:30:21.740 But with that

00:30:22.520 all being said,

00:30:23.580 thank you guys

00:30:24.100 for watching

00:30:24.640 and I will

00:30:25.180 see you all

00:30:26.080 later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 20, 2026

Poilievre Looks Stronger Than Mark Carney in NEW poll - CPC LPC tie at 40%

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