Today, for the first time in this entire election cycle, the Tories are leading the Liberals by 4 points in the latest Main Street Research poll. But the more interesting stat is this: Pierre Polyev is now more popular than our Prime Minister, Mark Carney.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Well, now that it's been three days since the English language debate, things have gotten even better for the conservatives.
00:00:10.400Yesterday, I covered a Main Street research poll that had the conservatives leading the liberals by three points, and today it is now four points.
00:00:18.920But the more interesting stat I want to get into today is the popularity numbers between Pierre Polyev and Mark Carney, because now for the first time in this entire election cycle, Pierre Polyev is more popular than our technical Prime Minister, Mark Carney.
00:00:37.080Before I get into it in detail, guys, I just want to remind you, if you like the show and you've been liking my federal election coverage, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe to the channel if you are not yet a subscriber.
00:00:48.240Help me get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December of this year, as well as leave a comment on the topic of the video today.
00:00:56.140And now, without further ado, I want to cut to the stats posted by Sheree Attiste here on X.
00:01:02.300He's actually a great person to follow on X if you're looking for political stats.
00:01:06.340And he shows leaders' favorability as of March 23rd.
00:01:10.900So last month, March 23rd, Mark Carney had a net approval rating of plus 15%.
00:01:16.680Polyev had a negative 9% net approval rating.
00:01:21.140Leaders' favorability as of April 19th.
00:01:24.440Carney is plus one, so he is a little bit more favorable than he is unfavorable.
00:01:29.780And Polyev is beating him by four points with a net favorability of plus five.
00:01:34.860I don't know what is more incredible here, how much Carney has fallen over time or how much Polyev has gained.
00:01:45.280But because there is so much legacy media propaganda going against him, naturally, there was always a certain type of voter who would just say that they didn't like him, even if they were voting conservative.
00:01:55.840Oh, he's negative. He's too much of an attack dog.
00:02:00.400Which is always kind of funny to me that the same people who want a leader who's going to fight back against Trump don't like that pure Polyev is a fighter.
00:02:09.700Really, it's just that there are a lot of voters out there who are purely arbitrary with how they decide whether or not they like somebody or not.
00:02:16.360So they'll say something in one moment that completely contradicts what they say in the next moment.
00:02:22.320And it makes sense in their minds at the very least.
00:02:26.640Now I want to jump over to what the actual overall stats are looking like for this election in the new Main Street poll.
00:02:34.600I want the undecideds added in just so you see how tight this race is and how few undecided people there are left.
00:02:41.740But I do believe that based on the momentum, the conservatives are going to be able to capture them.
00:02:47.220So this was the poll that was conducted yesterday.
00:02:50.540We have the conservatives and pure Polyev at 42% nationally, the liberals at 38%, NDP 6, Block 6, and you have like the PPC 2 and the Greens 1.
00:03:02.740The one thing I will criticize about the Main Street poll is I find that they tend to be able to pick up on macro trends better than they're able to pick up on micro trends and regionals.
00:03:14.500So I find that they're, if I could put it this way, their numbers tend to be very, very stereotypical.
00:03:21.080So when the liberals or the conservatives are leading, they're doing super well in Alberta.
00:03:24.900And when the liberals are leading, they're doing super well in Atlantic Canada, even if that's not quite what we see on the ground.
00:03:31.400But what I want to note here is, look, the undecideds are only at 3%.
00:03:39.780And so what I think we had from the debate, because we saw a quick rise and fall over the last few days where pre-debate, there was maybe 3% of people undecided.
00:03:50.380And then post-debate, it jumped to 6%.
00:03:52.520And then since then, it's fallen back down to 3%.
00:03:55.260But the party that we've been noticing benefiting the most out of all this has been the conservatives.
00:03:59.860What happened at that English debate, because the media is even telling you that Mark Carney sucked because they do not want to talk about the debate,
00:04:08.160they talked about it for about five seconds afterwards, and then they've not spoken about it since then.
00:04:19.800A bunch of them immediately went over to the conservatives.
00:04:21.580And then their certainty was broken by the fact that they're like, I guess I'm going to go back to voting for the conservatives like I was four months ago.
00:04:30.580So the liberals are in a very bad place right now.
00:04:33.540We are in the last week of the election.
00:04:38.320By the way, guys, if you're a voting conservative, make sure you do it early.
00:04:41.940We want the lines on election day to be as short as possible so that low propensity voters, people who don't usually vote, show up at the poll station.
00:04:51.180They're like, oh, it's an hour and a half wait.
00:04:53.840We want those lines to be short on election day for those lower propensity voters.
00:04:58.700And the thing is that the conservatives right now are getting all their early vote through.
00:05:03.120There were record-breaking numbers for early votes on day one.
00:05:06.760On day one, two million Canadians voted on first day of early voting.
00:05:11.940And from the anecdotal reports I've heard from a lot of sources, people were standing in line and everyone around them was voting conservative.
00:05:18.900It was pretty overwhelming how many conservatives showed up on the first day of early voting.
00:05:24.840And that's because, like I have been saying in so many videos before this, the liberals are softly supporting the liberals for the most part.
00:05:33.160There's not like this big chunk of hardcore liberal supporters.
00:05:36.760Only about half of the liberals to two-thirds of the liberals are definitely sure they're going to be showing up and voting for the liberals.
00:05:43.760That, again, is why the debate was so bad, is that there's a lot of people uncertain if they want to actually show up and vote for these guys because there's a lot of question marks around if Mark Carney is really different than Justin Trudeau.
00:05:54.600And the debate and now the platform release have proven that he's not different at all and now these people are kind of pulling back or maybe they're just not going to vote at all because who cares at this point.
00:06:05.100For some reason, they don't like Paulio, but they also don't like Carney and they don't like the Liberal Party.
00:06:11.400And so the liberals have been suffering in early votes.
00:06:13.520If they don't get a lot of early vote out today and I don't think that platform is going to help them at all, they're going to have to push hard for Election Day.
00:06:22.520And by the way, it tends to be that conservatives show up on Election Day.
00:06:26.340So the fact that conservatives are winning on the early vote and they might win on Election Day, this could be close to a majority government, if not a majority government, for the conservatives.
00:06:37.060Could the conservatives still fall on their face and lose?
00:07:00.080When the conservatives are leading the liberals by 42.2 to 37.7, they have the conservatives at like 70% in Alberta.
00:07:09.600But then they still have the liberals leading with 51% in Atlantic Canada, conservatives slightly leading in BC, but then Ontario is effectively a tie with the liberals leading by 0.3.
00:07:19.400This is what I mean when I say that Main Street has a very stereotypical sample.
00:07:24.180I don't think that the conservatives are going to be 70% in Alberta.
00:07:29.060They'll get maybe 64%, 65%, which is enough to effectively win every single riding except, you know, three or four in Calgary and Edmonton.
00:07:38.220It's a very good result for the conservatives.
00:07:40.200They're going to do way better in Atlantic Canada than Main Street thinks.
00:07:43.820Do you think 150 working class fishermen show up to protest a Mark Carney event when he was with the fishing minister for no reason?
00:07:53.320That's not something they do on a normal Saturday night, I can tell you.
00:07:56.840And it's because these guys who usually don't show up and vote are showing up and they're showing up for the conservatives.
00:08:03.420The liberals will do well in Atlantic Canada.
00:08:05.740They always do well in Atlantic Canada.
00:08:07.100But I could see the conservatives grabbing up close to half the seats.
00:08:11.980And if they're grabbing up close to half the seats, the liberals are dead.
00:11:06.840So she didn't even register for the event, but they're not going to let her in.
00:11:09.320But the funny thing about not being able to handle Kareem is that it tells you that Mark Carney and the liberals are, in fact, a very left-wing party.
00:11:19.940Because if you don't like Kareem Assad, you either are keeping her out because you're scared that she's just going to film and that Mark Carney is going to make a fool of himself because every time he talks, he makes a fool of himself.
00:11:31.300Or what you are is you're trying to block Kareem Assad from entering because the Marxist Antifa left doesn't like her.
00:11:39.940Again, Kareem Assad is actually on the center left.
00:11:43.400She is, in fact, decently pro-Palestine, like not pro-Hamas in any way.
00:11:47.920I would say she's respectfully pro-Palestine as somebody who's pro-Israel.
00:11:52.720They don't like her because she shows up to events and films them doing bad things.
00:11:56.140So if you're the liberal party, you won't let Kareem Assad in, either you are just scared she's going to film Mark Carney, he's going to mess up, and you don't want anyone seeing it.
00:12:04.540Or it's one of those things where the Antifa left is going to get mad at the liberals for letting her in.
00:12:11.380And for some reason, the liberals highly value the opinion of the Antifa left.
00:12:43.580$25 billion for these prefabricated homes that they want to put up.
00:12:48.580And extra financing for, like, debt relief for people purchasing new homes to make it easier for them to get a mortgage.
00:12:56.360Are you going to make it easier to build?
00:12:58.280You can say, oh, we're going to make prefab houses.
00:13:00.860Unless you're going to get rid of all the stupid zoning laws and crazy building regulations that make it take forever to actually get approved to even start putting the thing up.
00:13:08.920It doesn't matter if it's prefab or you're putting up a skyscraper.
00:13:12.080That's what's delaying things by years, getting units on side.
00:13:17.340It's like Carney thought, well, I'll just say we're building simpler houses and that will make it better.
00:13:21.460The whole point is you can't build a small shack, let alone a mansion, based on the current regulations.
00:13:27.840And he doesn't want to get rid of the current regulations because that's how a lot of people in Ottawa are employed, working in housing policy.
00:13:34.980And if you make housing policy simpler, well, thousands of these people and housing inspectors from the federal and provincial governments are all out of a job.
00:13:54.240At the same time, they're still only trying to meet that target by 2029 or 2030, which is exactly what the conservatives got criticized for, because the conservatives realize you can't go from what we currently are at, like, 1.3 to 2% in four years, especially because most of the spending actually needs to be slashed first, because most of the defense spending is in, like, HR and DEI garbage.
00:14:33.580The problem is we don't have enough nurses and doctors because our healthcare systems are extremely heavily sided or heavily overweighted by administration, management, HR, and whatnot.
00:14:43.260Many people who work at administration and HR in hospitals who are managers are registered nurses or doctors, but they don't work on the floor.
00:14:53.100But this is one of those, again, one of those things where the liberals are just putting money towards stuff to make it seem like they're doing something.
00:15:30.220Federal government logic or just government logic in general goes, well, if we just cut taxes, we could create 50,000 more jobs.
00:15:38.040But if we tax people more and we hand out a bunch of money, we can create 35,000 jobs.
00:15:45.140But we own that creation of 35,000 jobs because we are the ones who cut the check to the industries to hire those people, even if in getting those 35,000 people jobs, we actually might have lost another 3,000 jobs over there in the private sector that wasn't being given the handouts.
00:16:01.740They would rather have their name underneath the job as being the person who created it rather than creating multiple times more jobs by just leaving people alone and cutting their taxes.
00:16:15.640We have a billion dollars for retrofits.
00:16:18.220We're going to give people a billion dollars to buy heat pumps in their house and a bunch of money for none of other investments.
00:16:23.800And in all this, they're apparently going to find $28 billion of savings in order to offset the cost of that $130 billion of new spending.
00:16:35.100So part of the new spending, in theory, will be paid by or cuts elsewhere.
00:16:40.240If the liberals ever cut a dollar of spending from the government, I will give them a lifetime achievement award of conservatism.
00:16:47.820They've never done it, and they're never going to do it.
00:16:49.740The thing is, when they say they're going to find cost savings, it's going to be like nonsensical cost savings, where they're just shifting $1 billion from here to there to do the exact same thing, and nothing was achieved.
00:17:03.320Every voter who was considering voting for the liberals but was not fully on board looks at this and says, it's just a Justin Trudeau platform.
00:17:22.360He's trying to spin this as a very good platform.
00:17:25.320He says right here, this is a massive shift in approach from the 2021 liberal platform, building up Canada's assets to Trump-proof the economy.
00:17:33.720Ignore those who are pretending this is similar.
00:17:35.740It is literally the inverse of 2021 in terms of spending focus.
00:17:38.840Okay, so what he's showing is in 2021, 65% of the budget was in operational spending.
00:17:44.800So, you know, program spending, things that already exist, we're giving people CERB checks, or we're giving people money for, you know, lockdown relief and whatnot that was going on.