The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Poilievre's approval surges as Carney sinks by 11%

00:00:00.320 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Something I continuously mention as being very important

00:00:06.620 to this federal election is the personality differences between Prime Minister Mark Carney

00:00:11.960 and Conservative Party leader Pierre Polyev. This is obviously an area that Polyev and the

00:00:17.880 Conservatives have a major advantage over the Liberals. I've said it before, I will say it

00:00:23.500 again. Mark Carney has the personality of a beige painted wall. He gives off no energy. He doesn't

00:00:30.880 make you think he actually cares about the average person. It's really bad. That is why the Liberals

00:00:36.760 keep having to talk about Donald Trump. They're having to try and fight the personality battle

00:00:41.400 with Pierre Polyev through indirect means. Mark Carney's not an interesting person, so they

00:00:46.860 constantly talk about how they're up against Trump. We're taking on Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump,

00:00:51.300 Trump. And I want to bring up something later that demonstrates that Liberal voters are actually

00:00:54.960 more motivated by Trump than Canada's actual domestic political and economic situation. 0.99

00:01:02.560 It's utterly pathetic. But they almost have to use Trump as a stand-in for Carney in like a reverse 0.88

00:01:08.940 kind of a way where they're not marketing in favor of Trump. They're marketing against Trump saying,

00:01:13.520 you know Carney over here? Yeah, he is an absolute dud of a candidate, but he's not Trump. He's anti-Trump. 0.62

00:01:21.300 I guess so in the sense that he is boring and massively incompetent, whereas Trump is energetic 0.52

00:01:27.960 and deeply competent, at least when it comes to like domestic political management of the United 0.65

00:01:33.720 States. I don't like the tariff thing, but in general he can get stuff done, whereas Carney has

00:01:38.380 been economic advisor for the last five years before becoming prime minister, and he was deeply

00:01:43.260 incompetent. But anyways, before I get into some of the deeper topics I wanted to get into today,

00:01:48.340 I just want to mention to you guys, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel,

00:01:52.360 as well as leave a comment. It really helps our videos on the algorithm, and I always like to

00:01:56.560 scroll through a few times to see what people are saying about the topic of the day. But I want to

00:02:00.440 show you the numbers behind Polyev and Carney's approval ratings. This is the big story of the

00:02:06.140 election. It's the big personality fight that's taking place. Yes, policy matters, but you would be

00:02:12.080 shocked how many voters just vote on the vibes of the leader. Frankly, this is what caused Justin

00:02:19.260 Trudeau to beat Stephen Harper back in 2015. Harper didn't feel like he wanted it. He felt like he was

00:02:25.180 there waiting to get another term, and that was kind of it. And then people were going to obviously shift

00:02:30.800 towards the guy who was energetic, saying stupid things, but at least he said it with some energy. 0.99

00:02:35.800 That's how politics work in so many people's minds. That's why O'Toole lost to Trudeau. 1.00

00:02:40.260 O'Toole's policy sucked because he kept breaking promises, but so many people voted for Trudeau

00:02:45.480 again because Trudeau has, again, energy, charisma, where Aaron O'Toole always came off like a wet

00:02:52.260 sandwich on stage. But now let's cut to wet sandwich Mr. Mark Carney, who this is a pre-recorded

00:03:00.320 video I'm going to emphasize. And when I get into the numbers about his approval, you are going to

00:03:05.040 realize why they've slid in so hard. We're going to build big things in this country,

00:03:09.120 from naval ships to neighborhoods, to the new grids that power them. It'll be a great time

00:03:15.140 for a career in the trades, and we'll help you get started. We'll cover the cost of your training

00:03:20.460 and make it easier to work wherever you want in Canada. You're going to be busy building this

00:03:26.460 country. It's such a bad ad. And I'm not just saying that because I'm a conservative. Obviously,

00:03:33.000 I'm a conservative. I will be openly partisan. Hey, guys, I've linked in the description below

00:03:37.680 the lawn sign request link. Go get a conservative lawn sign. But that's a bad ad from an objective

00:03:43.180 perspective. He's talking about building big things. And he sounds like he's talking about

00:03:49.320 whether you want chamomile tea or if you want some other form of herbal tea. We have orange tea. We have

00:03:56.280 lemon. You can have some chamomile. He just sounds dead. He's talking about trade jobs. Oh,

00:04:02.220 there's going to be great opportunities for trade jobs. It's like, dude, sound like you're working on

00:04:08.660 a work site having to project to the back, except he's so dead. He just isn't saying anything. The

00:04:15.540 substance of the ad has already been vaporized from your mind because it was so dull. He didn't give

00:04:22.400 you many specifics. He just says, we're going to build more ships, homes. There's going to be trade

00:04:27.740 jobs. And I'm already putting way too much energy into it to be a Mark Carney, to be Mark Carney at

00:04:33.700 all. It's terrible. He has the delivery of a doctor coming into your room and saying terminal. It's bad.

00:04:41.400 Now let's move on to another one. This is him at a rally. And him pre-recorded and him at a rally are

00:04:47.680 basically the same thing. You got to give the guy the fact that he's consistent.

00:04:52.400 And he's even talking about something. He's going to be talking about the US. He's talking

00:04:56.240 about something that should be politically hot blooded and he cannot get himself over an

00:05:01.060 emotional two out of 10. The US is harming themselves with these tariffs. Okay. It takes

00:05:06.860 some time for that to filter through, just like it took some time for the impacts of Brexit to filter

00:05:12.260 through to the UK economy. Yeah, it took some time because he was screwing everything up. Brexit should 0.93

00:05:17.360 have been good for the UK, but his monetary policy, putting pressure on the government to pass

00:05:21.960 terrible legislation is what caused the economy to tumble. So one, I just had to stop and fact

00:05:28.140 check that. But this is like, he's talking about the US and destroying their economy and

00:05:33.060 how we need to protect ourselves. And he sounds again, like he's telling you that you've been

00:05:36.720 one week late on a book at the library.

00:05:39.800 But I have seen this movie before. I know exactly what's going to happen. This is what's going

00:05:43.720 to happen to them. The Americans are going to get weaker. We are going to stand by our

00:05:47.600 workers. We are standing by our companies. We are building new trade relationships. We

00:05:52.320 are going to stay strong and get stronger.

00:05:58.500 Someone even had to start the clapping for everyone else because there is nothing about

00:06:03.480 anything, Mark Carney's delivery that says, oh yeah, applause line. You want to raise your

00:06:09.100 voice a little bit while you're talking about something like this. You want to almost, again,

00:06:13.360 project to the back. You know, we're going to stand strong and we're going to get stronger.

00:06:17.680 He's like, we're strong and we're going to get stronger. It's just bad. Do you want to,

00:06:25.700 let's cut to a good example. Let's cut to Polyev at a rally talking off the cuff,

00:06:31.160 obviously not scripted at all. Here is him just pointing to a little girl in the crowd and having

00:06:36.860 an actual human moment that Mr. Carney, like the Terminator cannot. You like that? Look at this

00:06:45.320 little girl. Who is this little girl? What's your name? What's your name? Avery. And what brought

00:06:53.140 you here today, Avery? To help the country.

00:07:12.660 She's even got a wonderful handshake. This is, I think we have a future prime minister right here

00:07:17.440 in Avery. This man could be interesting reading the phone book. He is good. He could read the back

00:07:25.600 of a soup label and he could be more compelling than Mark Carney. In fact, you could probably read

00:07:30.440 the back of a soup label and see all the really cheap ingredients that are having to be used because

00:07:34.580 of the high taxes. You could make an entire political speech out of it. But look at the

00:07:39.540 difference there. Now I'm wanting to get into the numbers. So this is day one of Pure Polyev.

00:07:43.640 This is the Main Street tracking poll that they do a tracking poll every single day of around like

00:07:48.480 1,100, 1,300 people. So we have on day one, Polyev has 28% of people strongly in favor of him, 15%

00:07:56.740 somewhat in favor, and he has 40% strongly unfavorable and 12% somewhat unfavorable.

00:08:03.760 Really bad numbers starting out. I believe that's like a negative nine or something like that.

00:08:08.220 Super bad. I have someone who's like calculated it elsewhere. I just don't want to do the addition

00:08:13.240 and subtraction here. And then on day 14, so like yesterday, he was at 33% strongly favorable,

00:08:22.220 15% somewhat unfavorable, 12% somewhat unfavorable, 34% very unfavorable, which makes sense because

00:08:30.600 there's MVP and liberal partisans who are always going to say they hate your guts. Same thing happens

00:08:34.760 with Carney. Any conservative is always going to say they're strongly not in favor of him. But let's

00:08:39.960 look at the difference there. So it went from 40% unfavorable, 12% somewhat unfavorable. It's still 12%

00:08:46.880 somewhat unfavorable, but you have dropped the super unfavorable, very unfavorable, dropped 6%.

00:08:53.660 Now let's go to day one of Mark Carney. He had 30% day one strongly in favor, 24% somewhat in favor.

00:09:03.540 That is over 50%, 54% approval rating here. And then he only has 28% strongly not in favor of him,

00:09:11.920 11% somewhat unfavorable. And then there's still 8% undecided. Let's jump to day 14.

00:09:19.340 Now we have 33% up from 28, 33% very unfavorable. We have the somewhat unfavorable is the same,

00:09:28.680 11%. Very favorable is 32% and somewhat favorable is 19%. He used to be on, like his very favorable

00:09:37.040 has moved up a couple points, but the somewhat has dropped back a lot. Now I want to jump over now

00:09:44.040 to the person who's actually calculated this because the swing is quite dramatic here. It's

00:09:49.560 Shrey Attiste on Twitter. You guys should all go give him a follow. He does really good polling analysis.

00:09:54.820 He puts everything into his own model on polywave.com. But he says right here, both Polyev and

00:10:01.760 Carney now have a positive approval rating, plus 7 for Carney and plus 2 for Polyev. Compared to the

00:10:07.760 first day of the campaign, Carney had a plus 15 and Polyev had a minus 9 approval rating. So

00:10:13.540 Carney has gone down 8% with his approval rating, while Polyev has gone up 11%. That is a massive swing.

00:10:21.500 And it speaks to the idea I have been ballyhooing since this election started off. The liberals started

00:10:27.340 in a honeymoon period. You swap out Justin Trudeau, who was the bubonic plague for the liberals with

00:10:33.160 anybody, and they're going to shoot up in the approval ratings, both national polls as well as

00:10:38.020 the leader's approval. Same thing happened when Brian Mulroney was swapped out for Kim Campbell.

00:10:43.520 Same thing happened Joe Biden to Kamala Harris. That even happened between Stefan Dion and Michael

00:10:48.680 Ignatieff, who got absolutely clobbered in 2011 by Stephen Harper. This stuff obviously was not going

00:10:56.560 to last forever. It's a temporary boost because people were artificially giving that second, third

00:11:02.200 look at the liberals thinking maybe they've changed when the entire front bench the party, the cabinet,

00:11:08.000 the parties even, the rest of caucus is the same in the liberal party. And they're marketing this to

00:11:13.800 us like it's any different. My friend Chase Zaba, he's also somebody who's worth giving a follow to.

00:11:19.220 I'll even link this post in the description below. If you guys want to go and give Chase Zaba a follow,

00:11:24.280 he's been putting out some good stats here. Chase Zaba here says, interesting, most polls for most

00:11:30.900 polling firms have reported a notable decrease in liberal support over the last days. Main Street has

00:11:36.140 had the liberals lose 0.9% over the last day. Liaison has had them lose 2%. And Nanos has had the liberals

00:11:43.700 lose 2.5%. In fact, in the Nanos poll, who has not been friendly to the conservatives at all,

00:11:50.480 I believe they still lead the conservatives by a couple points or so, or actually might still be like

00:11:54.860 five points. But there's been a 4% swing in like the past three days in the Nanos poll. And then we go

00:12:01.320 down Chase notes. Meanwhile, conservatives are up in Main Street by one point, liaison by one and

00:12:06.800 Nanos by one. So if you can combine the Nanos negative and positive for the conservatives, there

00:12:12.420 has been a 2.6% swing for the conservatives in this election. Like I've been saying, we are leaving the

00:12:21.400 honeymoon period, we are almost through it. And then we are into a real election. Now I just want to

00:12:27.540 quickly bring up some other stuff regarding Trump and what issues people care about in this election.

00:12:33.300 This isn't exactly a polling video, but we're analyzing kind of what are, what's the issues of

00:12:38.360 this election. So I want to find this poll. It's actually not a poll. It's a basically a word

00:12:43.940 association thing. This is what I find so silly. It's called from Kolsowski Strategies. They asked 0.84

00:12:50.940 liberal supporters basically what motivates them to vote. And these are the word clouds that motivate

00:12:56.700 liberals. And you can see Trump is the biggest word here. It's Trump. The words that they say the

00:13:03.100 most are Trump, Canada, Carney, leader. So they're probably, we want leadership against Trump to

00:13:09.800 protect Canada is the most generic way of summing up what liberals think. Even the economy there,

00:13:15.860 the economy might be only like the fifth biggest word, where if you actually go to the conservatives,

00:13:21.880 it's liberals, liberal, they really don't like the liberals. But then the next, one of the next

00:13:27.220 biggest things is taxes and then government tax corruption, a lot more of the conservative voters

00:13:34.380 care about the issues domestically. And I don't even think Trump's even on here, like the WEF's on

00:13:41.580 here, very small. Notice how Pierre's name is so small. It's just Pierre. Maybe there's a Polly up here

00:13:47.480 too. And the Carney's name is even small. But conservatives do not vote simply in opposition

00:13:54.260 of Donald Trump in the United States, because it's silly. It's foolish to be making your vote 0.98

00:13:59.580 based on who you abstractly think is going to upset the president of the United States that you don't

00:14:05.820 like. That is just foolhardy. And it's usually people who are far too economically, like they're very

00:14:12.440 economically secure people voting this way because they have the money to basically ignore real issues

00:14:17.700 and just vote in this silly way. And so, yeah, this is actually one thing that the conservatives

00:14:23.780 have been doing well. They've been really stripping the bark off of Carney and going after him on like

00:14:28.960 a corruption level, because the idea of Carney was that he is a fresh start for the liberals.

00:14:34.820 All you have here says, Carney hid his company's money in Bermuda to avoid the same taxes liberals

00:14:39.700 hiked for everyday Canadians. He could have chosen Canada, but instead Carney sheltered his company's

00:14:44.740 money overseas and moved his headquarters out of Canada to Trump's America. He literally moved

00:14:51.380 Brookfield Asset Management from Toronto to New York City. It's absolutely ridiculous that he was 0.68

00:14:58.820 able to get away with that and not have people call him out for not being patriotic. Anyways, so that

00:15:03.980 should be it for me today here. I think that we're going to continue seeing this trend go as we

00:15:09.600 move forward that Polyev is going to keep moving up his popularity. Carney is going to keep moving

00:15:14.220 down. I think they're going to be at parity at some point here. And I think the debate is really going

00:15:18.560 to make a difference. The polls are already starting to shift towards the conservatives. Many of them

00:15:23.100 haven't quite gotten there yet. But even pollsters are saying a lot of these other pollsters are not

00:15:27.620 polling the election right. They are allowing massive response biases to guide what their polls look like.

00:15:35.060 They're not actually making any effort to go and reach out to people who usually don't answer polls,

00:15:40.100 like people who work in trades, farmers, whatnot. The problem with polls is many polls are kind of

00:15:45.180 opt-in. You sign up to be part of the sample. And who signs up to be part of the samples? Public sector

00:15:50.420 workers, downtown office workers, people who have a lot of time on their hands, not guys who are

00:15:55.400 electricians or farmers. Anyways, so that should be it for me today, guys. Remember to like the video,

00:16:00.660 subscribe to the channel, leave a comment, and I will be back tomorrow with something new.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 06, 2025

Poilievre's approval surges as Carney sinks by 11%

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