The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 05, 2024


Poilievre's Conservatives open up 20% lead on the Liberals


Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

187.12

Word count

2,138

Sentence count

122

Harmful content

Toxicity

5

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Conservatives have a 20 point lead over the Liberals in the polls, and it's not even close. Is it time to call it quits on the Liberals? Or is there still time to save the party?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
00:00:00.000 Prime Minister Trudeau, it's pretty much just time to shut off the lights, you know, show's over, shut down the Liberal Party.
00:00:07.240 You're not going to be able to come back from polling deficits this bad.
00:00:11.880 Not only was the Durham by-election result deeply embarrassing for the Liberals,
00:00:16.760 now polling that just came out this morning is showing that the Conservatives have a lead of 20 points on the Liberal Party.
00:00:24.700 Yes, 20. That 2-0. No decimal point between the 2 and the 0.
00:00:30.160 A 20-point lead over the Liberals.
00:00:33.500 And what's truly embarrassing is that the NDP are not really benefiting that much from the 10% collapse of the Liberals since the last election.
00:00:41.400 Really, it's the Conservatives who are just gaining votes from everyone.
00:00:44.660 From the Greens, from the Bloc, from the Liberals, from the PPC.
00:00:48.220 Everyone's just voting for the Conservatives.
00:00:50.100 And yes, guys, the PPC is not a party anymore.
00:00:52.460 They get 1% in this poll.
00:00:54.860 A lot of polls are only showing them at 1%.
00:00:57.080 They just don't fill a void anymore.
00:00:59.540 But getting back to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, the pain does not stop there.
00:01:04.740 We have this other poll showing that people's top issues, and I've never really liked the way that Nanos does the top issues,
00:01:11.260 because I believe they let you pick two or three issues.
00:01:13.700 I think that voters should just be asked to pick one issue that they care about.
00:01:18.040 Once you start asking people to pick three issues, people start picking things because it feels very socially conscious to do,
00:01:23.600 even though it's not something they really voted for.
00:01:25.940 What this is showing me is that, yes, it makes sense that jobs, economy, inflation, and housing are so high up there in terms of people's top issues.
00:01:34.140 But the real telling thing is the 7% that Environment got.
00:01:38.080 Why that is telling is I remember not long ago, and I'm just thinking like a month and a half, two, three months ago,
00:01:44.520 Environment in the Nanos polls used to poll at 12%, 13%.
00:01:49.060 The fact that it's almost only half as much as it used to be is showing that people aren't even going to pretend that they care about environmental issues going into the 25 election.
00:01:58.940 The Liberals rely on a lot of very left-wing, socially progressive voters showing up to vote for ancillary sort of issues in order to beef up their base of support and turn out the vote.
00:02:11.920 The Liberal Party's left-wing activists tend to be their most active voters.
00:02:15.800 And now this poll is showing that a lot of people are actually kind of waking up, smelling the coffee,
00:02:20.940 and realizing that they can't live life focusing on abstract environmental issues, and eventually the rent needs to be paid.
00:02:28.280 And that is the biggest issue for the Liberals.
00:02:31.160 As much as I am a very socially conservative person, I'm also a fiscal conservative,
00:02:35.600 and I understand that fundamentally 80% of voters mostly care about pocketbook issues.
00:02:41.340 And when you combine all of the issues on this poll, on stuff that really just ends up being the economy and cost of living,
00:02:49.020 it's more than like 50% of people basically saying,
00:02:52.200 I'm just going to vote for whoever's going to slow down inflation, cut my taxes, and all that other good stuff.
00:02:57.960 And the Liberals in the NDP are frankly just too arrogant to listen to Canadians and adjust their economic plans.
00:03:04.880 If the Liberals just said, you know, we were pushing the carbon tax earlier to try and, you know, fight climate change or whatever, even though it doesn't,
00:03:12.920 they could say, well, but Canadians are hurting so much right now, so we're going to put a three-year pause on the carbon tax.
00:03:18.600 They would probably gain five or six points in the polls right away.
00:03:22.400 If they just had the humility to basically state that, yes, this is not the time for the carbon tax.
00:03:28.120 It's never the time for the carbon tax, it's a terrible policy, and they know that the carbon tax doesn't even do anything for emissions if emissions reductions would actually, you know, fix the climate.
00:03:37.980 But if the Liberals just said three-year pause, they would immediately gain support back.
00:03:43.240 That is why the Newfoundland MP Ken McDonald voted to get rid of the carbon tax.
00:03:48.520 Because like a lot of politicians in the U.S. do, sometimes you have to vote against your own party to try and gird yourself up in your riding.
00:03:55.200 And when Liberal Party MPs, a party notorious for having no independent thought in it, is having their MP starting to split from the Prime Minister, that is a telling thing.
00:04:05.560 He's willing the risk of getting kicked out of caucus just to try and gain a little bit more support back in his own riding so that people slap him on the back and say,
00:04:13.800 hey, thanks for doing that, Ken, you did the right thing.
00:04:16.580 Here's another poll result that's a lot of fun to look at.
00:04:19.020 So Pierre Polyev, who supposedly, from listening to the mainstream media, is a deeply unpopular figure in Canadian politics.
00:04:26.040 Well, he is 37% preferred as the next Prime Minister of Canada.
00:04:31.140 Trudeau is actually underperforming his own national polling numbers, so the Liberals are at 23 nationally.
00:04:36.920 And he only has 19% of people preferring him as the Prime Minister.
00:04:40.880 Singh at 17, Blanchet at 4, obviously a bunch of block people are just going to say Blanchet.
00:04:45.260 And some other ones will pick Polyev or Trudeau because they know a block leader is never going to be the Prime Minister.
00:04:50.940 And then you have May and Bernier.
00:04:52.940 Yeah, Polyev is actually very personally likable in the national Canadian consciousness.
00:04:59.140 Trudeau, in a funny way, even though he is an older guy than Polyev, he always tried to come off as very much a young Prime Minister.
00:05:06.820 These days he comes off as very old and stale, which is funny because that is like the antithesis of the brand that he's tried to build.
00:05:13.220 So he is like an old, stale politician who's still trying to be the hyper-progressive.
00:05:19.060 So if anything, it just seems like he's never grown into being a statesman.
00:05:22.440 It feels like he's still some substitute teacher activist that's never really grown into the office.
00:05:29.020 But this is great to see.
00:05:32.280 The Conservatives at 20% above the Liberals, that when I last saw the projections for seats, would put the Conservatives at 236 seats.
00:05:42.900 And the Liberals only about 44 seats.
00:05:45.760 That is insane.
00:05:46.580 I don't think there's ever been a worse result for an incumbent party since Kim Campbell.
00:05:51.080 And I don't even really count that one because the PC party effectively split into three parties.
00:05:56.640 The PCs, Reform, and the Bloc Québécois.
00:05:59.160 So it does not count in my mind.
00:06:01.160 This might be the worst falling down of an incumbent government in Canadian history if we ignore Campbell.
00:06:07.840 Justin Trudeau, again, it's all a personality and arrogance problem.
00:06:12.220 The funny thing is it's actually kind of easy to win elections as a Liberal-like politician.
00:06:16.740 You can make Eastern Canada happy, keep their benefits stable, grow them over time, raise taxes a little bit on the top 1% to get your progressive base liking you.
00:06:26.460 And then just throw out a lot of sort of small micro kind of benefits to families and whatnot.
00:06:32.060 And, you know, hire a bunch of government workers who are like beholden to voting for you after that.
00:06:36.100 Very easy.
00:06:37.100 The Liberals, though, have started trying to edge into the NDP's territory more and more.
00:06:42.620 Every time they've lost voters due to corruption scandals, they're thinking, okay, well, we can maybe recover some of our votes by shifting left and grabbing up some of the progressive NDP voters. 0.91
00:06:51.480 The problem with that is as incompetent and silly as the NDP is, the NDP is effectively a political cult whose members will never vote for the Liberals.
00:07:00.180 Or unless they have a chance, like the NDP has no chance in their riding, they'll vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives. 0.96
00:07:06.040 Even that in practice really doesn't happen that much.
00:07:08.860 But the Liberals, in moving left to try and take NDP votes to recover their support, have actually just been alienating more and more sort of middle-of-the-road, middle-class voters who just wanted stability in the government.
00:07:21.320 And as much as the Liberals are fear-mongering about Polyev, both in the media and in like press conferences from like their own politicians and ministers,
00:07:28.880 saying that Polyev's going to be a dangerous, radical figure because he might cut government spending.
00:07:35.020 Guys, government spending went up 66% since 2015.
00:07:39.780 Don't threaten Canadians with a good time.
00:07:41.980 I have not, like I'm running for the Calgary Signal Hill Conservative Party nomination.
00:07:46.180 Shameless plug.
00:07:46.920 If you live in this West Calgary federal riding, buy a membership, vote for me.
00:07:51.260 My website's in the description below, wyatcladepool.com.
00:07:53.660 But the thing is that I've not talked to a single person on the phone, former Liberal voters, former NDP voters.
00:07:59.180 I've not talked to someone at the door, any party that they used to vote for.
00:08:02.440 Nobody is actually scared of cuts.
00:08:04.380 Everyone knows that there needs to be cuts made.
00:08:07.360 And so saying that they might cut vital social services, nobody believes that.
00:08:12.360 Everyone knows that all the cuts are going to happen in administration and HR and get reinvested either in real things that Canadians actually need,
00:08:20.640 like more services at passport offices, or it's just going to be given back to taxpayers.
00:08:25.540 Nobody thinks that government spending is a requirement for people to live their lives.
00:08:30.380 People know that actually government spending happens to be the problem these days.
00:08:34.160 But again, the Liberals have doubled down on the idea that they just need to drive out their progressive base more and try and steal progressive votes from the NDP.
00:08:42.340 So they've just been shoveling more of their kind of blue Liberal votes back over to the Conservatives, not realizing that's not even – I like Polyev.
00:08:51.120 I think he's a very good politician.
00:08:52.640 He motivates me to vote for him in a way that Aaron O'Toole did not motivate me to vote for the Conservatives.
00:08:57.680 But I'd say in a national picture of this whole thing, I don't even think that Pierre is winning himself as many more votes as much as Justin Trudeau is just giving it to Polyev because Trudeau doesn't even know what Canadians want anymore.
00:09:12.300 So every time he says something, it scares people over to the Conservatives who are not as scary as the Liberals want to make them out to be.
00:09:20.080 Anyways, that should be it for me today.
00:09:22.480 This poll was a lot of fun to cover.
00:09:24.400 I like seeing good poll results like this.
00:09:26.700 I don't know.
00:09:27.000 It makes me happy, and I like talking about polling.
00:09:28.900 But again, if you live in Calgary, Signal Hill, buy a Conservative membership, vote for me.
00:09:35.120 Check on my website, whyclaypool.com.
00:09:37.080 If you live in Calgary, every time I release a video, there's like 3,000 people watching from Calgary.
00:09:43.020 I guarantee a bunch of you live in the riding or you know somebody who lives in the riding.
00:09:46.600 So help me win this thing so we don't end up getting a politician who takes photos with Jody Gondek representing this area who doesn't even live in it.
00:09:56.060 That is Jeremy Nixon, by the way, who's the guy I'm competing against.
00:10:00.020 And then other than that, you can donate to the Give, Send, Go National Telegraph legal fund that's linked in the description below.
00:10:07.240 We're being sued by a ridiculous billionaire developer who's suing us for defamation that he cannot prove.
00:10:12.620 We did not defame him at all, and even all of our reporting on him pretty much just references a long Globe and Mail article that had already been written about him a year and a half ago.
00:10:21.160 But he expected that I couldn't pay for the lawsuit because I was a 22-year-old.
00:10:25.740 I think I was only 21 when the lawsuit started.
00:10:28.140 So he assumed that he could pressure me into giving him fake apologies so that he can pretend every bad thing ever said about him is false when it's all true.
00:10:36.360 And so he ended up just getting into this long, drawn-out legal fight, and it's costed me more than $26,000. 0.88
00:10:43.000 But I refuse to apologize for people for dumb garbage, so we're going to fight this out to the end and hopefully get all of our money back. 0.65
00:10:50.500 Anyways, that should be it for me today. 0.97
00:10:52.700 Finally, sorry for the rambling.
00:10:54.400 I'll see you guys all next time.
00:10:55.580 Thank you.