The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Poilievre's Polling Comeback has Started - Liberal lead shrinks significantly!

00:00:00.000 Ahoy, everyone. Wyatt Claypool here, back again to discuss some Canadian national polling numbers.

00:00:06.600 On the show today, I specifically want to go over the fall of the Liberal Party in the polls

00:00:12.420 recently. Now, Mark Carney and the Liberals are still leading the Conservatives by a significant

00:00:18.620 margin. If an election was held today, the Liberals would win a big majority government.

00:00:24.380 Now, that doesn't mean that Carney can actually cash in his current polling lead

00:00:28.140 for a majority at the polls. If he called an election right now, Canadians would probably

00:00:33.160 find it very sleazy and would immediately backlash against him, and maybe even the

00:00:37.980 Conservatives would win, or we would pretty much end up exactly where we are right now

00:00:42.600 with a liberal minority government. But the thing is that I've been saying over the past couple of

00:00:48.160 months is that while the Liberals were getting this crazy big lead in the polls, where on average

00:00:53.460 they were above the conservatives by 10 points, or in specific polls they were ahead by 15 or even

00:00:59.560 21 points, if you believe ECOS and Frank Graves, that it wasn't an actual real lead. Now, that

00:01:06.820 doesn't mean all these pollsters are just rigging their numbers. Some of them might be, but most of

00:01:12.160 them are just not being very careful with their sampling. Carney had an amazing news cycle in

00:01:18.220 January and February. He got into a small tiff with President Donald Trump at Davos. That made

00:01:24.720 him look good. There are some other tariff scares going on, and it created a rallying around the

00:01:30.120 flag effect for the liberal government because Donald Trump said something nasty about Carney

00:01:35.560 or just said something, frankly, just dismissive, and that was it. Ergo, we all have to say we're

00:01:40.120 going to vote liberal. Or it's really just that there was a lot of very excited liberals taking

00:01:44.440 the polls and a lot of the conservatives because the party in the first couple of months of the

00:01:49.040 2026 was a bit sluggish. You had enthusiastic liberals picking up the phone or answering

00:01:54.220 online polls and you had depressed conservatives not taking it as much, making it look like the

00:01:59.620 liberals were opening up this frankly unrealistic lead over the conservatives. So in just a second

00:02:04.760 here we are going to go over the latest numbers from Main Street Research and Angus Reid. Now

00:02:10.560 both of these pollsters are still showing the Liberals leading by significant margin,

00:02:15.000 but what you will notice is a massive drop-off compared to their last poll.

00:02:20.340 But before we get into the numbers, I just want to remind you guys, if you really like this show,

00:02:24.980 make sure to drop a like on the video, and if you want to help support the channel because YouTube

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00:02:38.600 if you're not a subscriber, consider hitting that subscribe button and the notification bell,

00:02:43.120 especially if you haven't seen a video from me in a while and you like the videos. It might just be

00:02:47.740 that YouTube's not notifying you when I have something new, though the notification bell

00:02:51.880 helps with that. It will always let you know when I have a new thing out. But now, without further

00:02:56.720 ado, let's start off with the Main Street one, which, again, still shows a crazy lead for the

00:03:02.280 liberals, but you'll see why this is worth talking about in just a second here. So in this poll,

00:03:08.040 we have the liberal party at literally 46%. Now that's actually not that much better than they

00:03:15.640 did in the last federal election. They got close to 44%. It was like 43.5 or 43.7 or whatever.

00:03:24.540 But 46 is still pretty high in a multi-party democracy. So Main Street is still showing 46

00:03:31.220 for the liberals and they have the conservative party at 36 which isn't good but it's also not

00:03:39.420 nearly as bad as they were previously showing them or other pollsters are showing them in some

00:03:44.120 of their like last two polls now the conservatives didn't improve that much from the last main street

00:03:48.980 one but i believe other ones like liaison were showing them and nanos were showing them like

00:03:53.680 31% or 32% or again ECOS showing them literally only at 27% like get out of here Frank Graves

00:04:03.140 but then in this poll they also have the Bloc Quebecois at seven points which I actually think

00:04:09.660 is kind of low for sorry not the Bloc but the NDP is at seven percent the Bloc is super low still

00:04:16.000 in their estimation only being at four percent and then the green party of Canada is at two

00:04:25.320 and I'll even throw in the PPC which is a little bit higher at three but this is the current

00:04:31.500 landscape according to Main Street now I don't actually believe that this is where the polling

00:04:37.620 actually is but this is where their current sampling is showing the polling let's get let's

00:04:44.340 that correctly Wyatt so this is a this is a 10 point lead for the Liberal Party but what you'll

00:04:52.260 notice here is that compared to their last poll do you know how much the Liberals have fallen

00:04:58.260 the Liberals fell 5.1 percent since the last poll the Conservatives have risen by half a point

00:05:08.260 the NDP have gone up by three percent and the Bloc Capicois have actually fallen by one point five

00:05:15.700 percent. I think even the PPC here are like yeah two point four percent up and the Greens are like

00:05:24.100 minus point oh two. So that's maybe a little bit messy the way I'm showing it here with the smaller

00:05:30.900 parties. I can probably just erase that it's kind of irrelevant but you get my point. You're having

00:05:36.340 Having a five-point drop since they lasted their poll a month ago for the liberals, conservatives kind of holding steady where they were, NDP nearly doubling what they used to have, and the Bloc Québécois losing like 30% of what they used to have, I just don't believe it.

00:05:54.940 Even now, I don't believe it, but it demonstrates at least even if the poll is flawed in its methodology, what we are seeing is a massive falling down of the Liberals.

00:06:05.560 We're seeing a small rise for the Conservatives, and then we're just seeing that their other party data is a little bit wonky.

00:06:12.180 The NDP at 7 is still a bit low.

00:06:15.300 Bloc at 4 makes no sense at all.

00:06:18.000 So that indicates to me this liberal number is going to keep falling, because the Bloc Québécois should be probably at like 7% or even 8% right now, because the provincial separatist party, the Parti Québécois, is doing massively well, and that's not the only separatist party in Quebec provincial politics.

00:06:36.880 You also have the very nationalistic CAQ. You also have the Quebec Solidaire Party. That's a

00:06:43.020 separatist party, more on the left. They pretty much all vote Bloc Québécois on a federal level.

00:06:49.000 Now, that doesn't mean they're going to sweep all the seats in Quebec, but they're going to win

00:06:52.860 back significant numbers of seats, probably in this next federal election from the Liberals.

00:06:57.160 So I don't think that the Bloc, since the last federal elections, have lost two points in the

00:07:02.640 polls. This is my general point here. Even though these are still polls showing the Liberals winning,

00:07:08.660 it's showing the polls are starting to become a little bit more realistic with where they show

00:07:13.120 the parties. And the PPC at 3%. The PPC got 0.7% of the vote in the last federal election.

00:07:20.760 Are we seriously saying that that dead party is going to rebound and literally increase its

00:07:28.160 support by fourfold. I think they'd be lucky to even hit 1% in the next election. I think they

00:07:34.540 might even dissolve. Anyways, let's move on to Angus Reid now. Angus Reid also had a similar

00:07:41.360 movement in their poll. Angus Reid now has the Liberal Party of Canada, Mark Carney's Liberals,

00:07:49.000 at 44%, which is pretty much where they ended off in the last federal election. So really,

00:07:56.440 the only thing we could say about the Kearney Liberals is that they haven't moved much. Now we

00:08:01.400 have the Conservatives like the Main Street poll at 36 percent so in this one the Liberals are

00:08:07.480 leading by eight points but again this is significantly less than they used to be in

00:08:12.920 previous Angus Reid polls. We have the NDP at a more realistic level in this one at nine percent

00:08:21.560 and the Bloc Québécois which we only go to the Bloc the Greens are at two doesn't really matter

00:08:26.040 it's pretty typical for them. The Bloc Capicois in this one are at seven, which is also a very 0.93

00:08:32.520 realistic number for them to be leading by. But in this poll, it's kind of the reverse of the

00:08:38.260 Main Street poll. We had the Liberals fall in this poll by just one percent, but the Conservatives

00:08:45.480 gained four points. The NDP lost one point, and I believe in this one the Bloc just held exactly

00:08:54.060 where they were in the last Angus Reid survey. So what we are seeing is that we had a sort of

00:09:00.600 systemic under-polling of conservatives, or we had a massive over-polling of liberals. And remember,

00:09:07.400 these surveys have maybe only somewhat taken into account the bad job numbers from back in February

00:09:13.920 that just got released sort of around, you know, early, you know, March 10th or so. That's when we

00:09:19.720 had the really bad job numbers come out. And now we have Pierre Polyev's new media tour adding into

00:09:26.240 it with him going on the Trigonometry podcast and just recently Joe Rogan's podcast. That's not

00:09:32.600 going to kind of get the conservatives new supporters as much as it's going to start

00:09:37.600 re-engaging conservatives who started feeling a bit sluggish about federal politics and were

00:09:42.460 becoming disinterested. You're probably going to see the conservative numbers start to tick up again

00:09:48.320 And as people realize that Paulyov is back, there is energy to what he's doing right now, and that the liberals, you know, haven't accomplished anything.

00:09:57.380 In fact, there's a lot of bad economic news hitting them right now.

00:10:01.520 And who cares about the fight between Trump and Carney from back in January who even remembers that happened anymore?

00:10:08.240 This is the thing with polling.

00:10:10.320 It is useful, but you have to realize when to take it seriously and when not to take it seriously.

00:10:16.200 Always taking it seriously is a mistake.

00:10:18.320 Never taking it seriously is also a mistake.

00:10:21.500 In January and February, I was saying that yes, the liberals are leading,

00:10:25.100 but if you see a poll, like Main Street used to show,

00:10:28.260 of them showing the liberals leading by 15 or 16 points, discount that one.

00:10:33.860 You'll walk around in the world and feel a big shift where everyone's talking about Mark Carney now and how great he is?

00:10:39.740 No, because that didn't happen.

00:10:42.000 Some people may have been won over by Carney in January and February from the other political parties to his camp,

00:10:48.320 but it's going to be a couple points. It's just not how politics works. People don't

00:10:52.460 really shift on a dime unless something massive happens. So yeah, they did start shifting on a

00:10:58.620 dime, liberal voters, after Trudeau was out, but that was because it was like the universally

00:11:03.260 agreed upon big issue with the Liberal Party. So as soon as he was out, people started readjusting

00:11:10.000 how they were voting accordingly. Even I have said, I never believed that Trudeau was actually

00:11:15.380 losing to Polyev and the Conservatives by anywhere from 15 to 25 points like it was claimed. I thought

00:11:21.800 if Trudeau stuck around, he would probably have lost the next federal election and lost big time,

00:11:27.400 but on the national level, I think he would have lost by a margin of 6% to 10%, which for the

00:11:33.360 Conservatives would have gotten them a very big majority, probably above 200 seats. But like some

00:11:39.380 of those polls back in December of 24 showing the Liberals only winning 10 seats, not going to

00:11:44.560 happen. What was happening was a reverse version of the response bias that we're seeing today.

00:11:49.620 Conservatives were super jazzed to take the polls, and the Liberals were extremely depressed.

00:11:54.540 And now we are seeing that trend starting to reverse, where the Liberals are starting to

00:11:59.560 answer polls at more realistic levels, and Conservatives are starting to answer them at

00:12:03.640 more realistic levels. We're having the super excited Liberals get off their sugar high,

00:12:07.780 and we are having Conservatives leave their sluggish depression because it felt like

00:12:11.900 nothing was happening in January and February. Another thing that I want to address here is this

00:12:18.360 very crazy result that came out of the Main Street or the Angus Reid poll that I think that

00:12:23.880 you guys would find interesting. This really does show, though, the strength that the liberals

00:12:28.880 currently have and the thing that the conservatives need to deal with. And it is unfair that the

00:12:33.840 conservatives will have to deal with this. These are numbers posted by Sheree Attiste from the

00:12:38.860 Angus Reid poll, he says, 53% of Canadians who feel very financially stressed vote for

00:12:44.940 conservatives, while 55% of those who feel very financially comfortable vote liberal. Now, that

00:12:51.920 is a very, very telling statistic right there, that those who are least affected by the negatives

00:12:59.180 of the current economy will keep voting liberal, and those who are having to live in real, you know,

00:13:04.460 in physical reality. Those who can't get a job or who were laid off or who haven't gotten a

00:13:10.460 promotion or a raise in a very long time are voting conservative. Those who are maybe even

00:13:15.620 retired and now just living on investment income, they're totally fine with the liberals because

00:13:20.500 they're not living in reality. And that's not saying that if that describes your current

00:13:24.860 economic position that you must be voting liberal. But if you are in that economic position,

00:13:29.160 you probably know a lot of people around you who can be a little bit dismissive of the problems

00:13:33.580 of other people. And so what the federal conservatives need to do is really broaden

00:13:38.540 out their agenda to issues that would matter to you even if economics isn't a high-ranking issue.

00:13:45.220 So things that are actually going to affect those who are actually doing well, but they care about

00:13:50.260 it. And that would be cultural issues. That would be social issues. That would be things affecting

00:13:55.180 people's children or grandchildren. That's what the federal conservatives need to be focusing on. 0.91

00:14:00.420 Because right now, what the Conservatives don't want to do is assume that this trend going down where the Liberals are going down, the Conservatives are starting to rise, is what is going to carry them over the finish line.

00:14:10.560 The numbers are going to get more realistic.

00:14:12.380 In the next couple of months, I could see the Liberals and the Conservatives being within a few points of each other again and it being a competitive race.

00:14:19.820 But don't mistake Federal Conservatives.

00:14:22.760 You rising and the Liberals falling as you're doing something super well.

00:14:26.560 They are doing certain things well,

00:14:28.160 but it's more so that the numbers are just reacting to the fact

00:14:31.000 that Carney ain't that good at his job.

00:14:33.080 You don't want to just win the next election

00:14:34.760 on the idea that Carney's not that good

00:14:36.580 because there's a lot of people, as we can see here,

00:14:39.580 who don't care he's not doing all that good.

00:14:41.340 55% of people who have very low economic stress

00:14:44.180 are happy to vote for him again.

00:14:46.100 So you can't just assume that he's going to bungle so hard

00:14:49.680 that he's going to get you into office.

00:14:51.040 Because certain people are completely immune to liberal bungling.

00:14:55.200 it doesn't affect them at all. Anyways, so that should be it for this video, guys. I'm going to

00:15:00.860 try and be a little bit shorter on some of these polling videos. I had another one of these suckers 0.57

00:15:04.880 go for 38 minutes, and I know you guys don't want them to all be that long, but thank you guys for

00:15:10.400 watching. I will be back as we see more updates from more of the pollsters. I guarantee this

00:15:15.060 trend is going to continue with the falling of the liberals and rising of the conservatives.

00:15:20.760 Doesn't mean the conservatives in a month are going to be leading, but the polls are going to

00:15:24.620 be competitive again. Anyways, make sure you guys like the video, subscribe, consider hitting the

00:15:29.920 join button and making a contribution per month, and I'll see you all next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 20, 2026

Poilievre's Polling Comeback has Started - Liberal lead shrinks significantly!

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