The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - January 28, 2025


Poll： Liberals get smoked by Conservatives with Carney or Freeland leading


Episode Stats


Length

22 minutes

Words per minute

174.37263

Word count

3,926

Sentence count

236

Harmful content

Misogyny

9

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A new poll from the Angus Reid Institute shows that even if Chrystia Freeland becomes the next Liberal Party Leader, the party is still going to lose to the Conservatives in the next election. And it's not even close to a close race between her and Mark Carney.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.000 As the federal liberal leadership race drags on and slowly drives me insane and all the candidates try and make the case that they are in fact the outsider candidate, it looks like all of this might not even matter because there is a new poll out from the Angus Reid Institute showing that whether Mark Carney is the new federal liberal leader or it's Chrystia Freeland, the liberals are still going to lose.
00:00:23.980 Here, Polyev and the conservatives are still going to win a massive majority and it looks like this entire liberal leadership race was just an exercise in futility that they ended up injuring the liberal party to get rid of Justin Trudeau and by picking a new leader, they're only bringing themselves back up to the polling levels that they were at before the process began to slowly shove Justin Trudeau out the door.
00:00:48.340 Very ironic, very funny to watch. I want to bring you through the numbers today as well as comment on the way that many of these liberal leadership candidates are positioning themselves, but before we get into it guys, this leadership race is extremely boring for me to cover and I am trying to spice it up.
00:01:06.680 So make sure to like this video, leave a comment, and if you're not yet a subscriber, please subscribe to the channel, I will be covering this liberal leadership race, soup to nuts, I will be covering the next federal election, I'm covering the Ontario provincial election, I cover everything, so if you want to stay up to date on Canadian politics, make sure you subscribe.
00:01:25.700 Anyways, here are the numbers from the Angus Reid Institute hypothetical polls if Christia Freeland or Mark Carney are the liberal leader and how the liberal party stacks up in national politics.
00:01:39.420 Now, remember that this Angus Reid poll showed that if Justin Trudeau was still the leader, basically the generic liberal party under Justin Trudeau right now polls at 22%.
00:01:50.600 But if they then ask the modified question, okay, well what if Mark Carney is the leader, what if Christia Freeland is the leader, they really don't increase all that much.
00:01:59.680 Yes, Mark Carney goes from 22 to 29, but this is still 4% below the pretty eh kind of performance the liberals had in the 2021 federal election.
00:02:12.600 Christia Freeland has an even more abysmal result, only going from 22 to 24%. 0.97
00:02:18.720 And the thing that's wild about this is that Freeland's making it out that she is the outsider candidate in this leadership race between her and Carney.
00:02:27.660 And that's actually not exactly incorrect.
00:02:31.360 Is Christia Freeland absolutely an insider by any objective metrics?
00:02:35.680 Yes.
00:02:36.320 By a relative metric to Mark Carney, she in fact is an outsider.
00:02:40.520 Katie Telford, Gerald Butts, Justin Trudeau, Rob Silver, all of these people from the prime minister's office and Trudeau himself control Mark Carney's campaign.
00:02:50.840 So Christia Freeland, in fact, is the outsider, but because in the general public's mind, she's the most obviously visually tied to Trudeau because they were always at press conferences, she was his deputy prime minister, she was his finance minister, that does not wash away the bad taste of Trudeau from people's mouths when they hear about Christia Freeland's name.
00:03:12.540 So there's more people willing to trick themselves into thinking that Mark Carney is different, and that's why the party's doing better under them.
00:03:20.040 But again, make no mistake, this is a horrible outcome for the Liberal Party.
00:03:25.320 29%.
00:03:25.800 The Liberals got rounding up a little bit, 33% in 2021.
00:03:31.360 And again, a 2021 outcome is not good enough to beat the Conservatives.
00:03:35.880 Look, Conservatives up against Carney are still at 43%.
00:03:40.000 And that is barely any different if it's Christia Freeland.
00:03:44.360 The big difference between Carney and Freeland is that Carney grabs up one point from the block, the block falls from 10 to 9, and he grabs up 4% from the NDP because truly Jagmeet Singh is the worst leader the NDP has had since like the 80s.
00:04:02.200 He is absolutely abysmal.
00:04:04.320 And that's the only reason that the party's doing better under Mark Carney.
00:04:07.600 And I've seen so many Liberals celebrating this poll result showing that, see, Mark Carney is rising up.
00:04:14.660 Yes, I would give you that his name recognition is still pretty low right now.
00:04:19.340 I guarantee even Canadians watching TV every day with political coverage, only about half can probably pick out Mark Carney in a lineup, and most of them probably won't even be able to give you the exact name of him if they see his picture.
00:04:32.120 But the problem is, as he gains name recognition, the Conservatives' attacks are going to become more harsh in the sense that the amount of the significance that the attacks are going to have, because it's hard to attack a guy that nobody knows.
00:04:46.500 But it's also hard for a party to run with a guy at the helm that nobody knows.
00:04:50.500 And so right now, the problem is, as more people understand who Carney is, it gives the Conservatives a greater capacity to define who he is, that he is a Trudeau insider, that he has been the economic advisor for the last few years, and he has given us the high inflation that we've had.
00:05:07.660 He is just a train wreck.
00:05:09.300 He supports central bank digital currencies.
00:05:11.420 He's been getting endorsements from all the most radical liberal MPs, people who are pro-terror, pro-drug legalization, all that sort of stuff.
00:05:18.720 And that's going to severely impact him.
00:05:21.580 So yes, maybe he still crawls up a few more points as we get closer to the next federal election.
00:05:26.560 Maybe he even does two to three points better than the Liberals did in 2021.
00:05:32.180 Maybe he clocks in at 36%.
00:05:34.520 Okay, well, 36% up against 43%, unless he steals a lot of support from the Conservatives, but this poll has shown that he really doesn't take much from them at all.
00:05:44.060 Well, he's not going to beat the Conservatives where the Conservatives have their strength.
00:05:48.680 The Liberals will gain support back in downtown Toronto, downtown Montreal, where a large portion of their loss of support over the last eight months has come from.
00:05:57.600 But that just means the Liberals are treading water with two-thirds of the seats that they won in 2021.
00:06:02.820 And if you have seen the seat projections, that's not enough to win, especially as the Conservatives are grabbing up seats from the NDP.
00:06:12.200 They could even technically beat Elizabeth May and Saanich in the Gulf Islands.
00:06:15.840 I want to show you this that Sheree Atis put up.
00:06:19.500 He runs the website Polywave Great Polling website.
00:06:21.860 And he modeled out what the current outcome would be with these results for the Liberals if they are at 29% with Mark Carney.
00:06:30.560 It's not good.
00:06:32.000 Look, Conservatives clock in with 208 seats, like 36 more seats than they actually even need to form government.
00:06:40.580 I think that actually might be close to 40 seats.
00:06:43.120 And then the Liberals only get 73 seats, a loss of 87.
00:06:48.220 They lose more seats than they will actually still hold.
00:06:50.780 The Bloc grabs up 51 seats, they increase.
00:06:54.040 The NDP loses seats, and the Greens lose seats.
00:06:56.880 They lose both seats.
00:06:57.820 I don't quite believe that Elizabeth May will lose her seat because she basically owns her fiefdom on Saanich in the Gulf Islands. 1.00
00:07:05.600 But this is actually the thing that the Liberals should be very concerned about, that at some point there's only so many NDP seats they can bleed away.
00:07:15.120 Because the Liberals are in fact losing seats to the Conservatives, but they are kind of subsidizing themselves by taking seats from the NDP, the seats that the Conservatives aren't taking.
00:07:24.760 So with Carney, you end up hitting a pretty hard floor.
00:07:28.440 However, this is concerning for the Liberals, that when you run Carney or Freeland, your main appeal is taking votes away from the further left party.
00:07:38.220 It should demonstrate that who you're trying to run is a very far left or left-wing coded candidate.
00:07:44.880 It's a technocrat.
00:07:45.860 I have literally seen liberal influencers online celebrating that he is a technocrat.
00:07:51.660 Do you think if you put that on a poster, a campaign poster, that people would want to vote for a technocrat?
00:07:58.040 In a period of Canadian politics that's more populist than ever, you're going to run a central banker who calls himself a European and also is celebrated as a technocrat.
00:08:08.640 You might be drunk if you run this guy, if you think that he is actually going to change anything.
00:08:13.920 And look at this. I know she is an ironic candidate, but Ruby Dalla, who all the people who were previously signing up to troll the Liberal Party to vote for Chandra Aria have shifted over to, 1.00
00:08:26.420 she at times in those last couple of days has been ranking above Mark Carney in Google Trends views because Mark Carney does not actually have that much excitement.
00:08:36.520 If you saw the Google Trends charts when Polyev was running a 22 against Leslie Lewis and Charest and Patrick Brown and Aitchison, the chart, also right when Weber was there, the chart was pure Polyev with 80% of the Google searches and everyone else.
00:08:53.020 Mark Carney is above everyone because he is getting so much push from the media, so much push from the Liberal Party establishment.
00:09:00.440 But other than that, there's not many people organically wanting to go check out what Mark Carney's all about because he's boring.
00:09:08.280 He just sucks. That's all you can really say about him.
00:09:10.800 Here's a really cringy video of him accepting Mark Miller's endorsement.
00:09:17.260 Why would you even want Mark Miller's endorsement?
00:09:19.680 He's the guy who has ended up screwing up the immigration system.
00:09:23.760 He finally had to lower immigration because of how bad it got, but he is one of the most awful, he is one of the, like, the poster children for bad liberal policy right now.
00:09:34.100 And Mark Carney is warmly embracing him, another member of Trudeau's wedding party.
00:09:38.420 Oh, je sais, Mark.
00:09:39.820 Et je suis ici avec un autre, Mark.
00:09:42.980 Le Grand.
00:09:43.600 Oh, I got the French version, but you get the point.
00:09:46.080 They do this weird, like, Kamala Harris phone call video.
00:09:49.360 Maybe I'm going to quickly go grab it for you guys.
00:09:51.180 He does this weird Kamala Harris phone call video where, like, he's calling up Mark Carney because they're such great friends and we needed to see this live on camera.
00:10:01.360 It's not compelling.
00:10:04.000 There's a reason I keep saying that Mark Carney and Christy Freeland have beige personalities.
00:10:09.060 They are the personification of the color beige because there's nothing about him that makes you think, I want to see this guy in a podcast.
00:10:16.380 That's the thing with Polyev.
00:10:17.660 People will watch Polyev on a podcast for three hours.
00:10:22.300 Nobody would watch Mark Carney for more than this video's 23-second run time.
00:10:26.540 Should I say, Mark?
00:10:27.840 Is this actually, wait, did he screw this up?
00:10:31.000 Mark?
00:10:31.760 Is this sweet?
00:10:33.500 Is this sweet?
00:10:34.460 Is this sweet?
00:10:35.740 Kevin, hi, it's Mark Carney calling with Mark Miller.
00:10:38.920 Hi, Kevin.
00:10:39.280 I mean, Jay, that's great.
00:10:41.400 That's really great.
00:10:42.260 It means the world to me and the team.
00:10:44.780 Okay.
00:10:46.260 Okay.
00:10:47.380 Bye-bye.
00:10:49.420 I am mesmerized.
00:10:51.700 I didn't even screw that up originally.
00:10:54.780 That was not the French video.
00:10:56.420 His team sucks so bad that he, for some reason, speaks English and French in the English video.
00:11:01.380 And it starts off with him speaking French.
00:11:03.560 This is how bad his comms are.
00:11:05.100 I didn't realize that was actually his video.
00:11:08.500 That was actually the English version.
00:11:10.920 Anyways, here's a great clip of Christia Freeland talking about herself as the outsider candidate. 0.56
00:11:17.080 And this is what's also going to be hurting Mark Carney if we assume he's going to win.
00:11:22.180 I'm not even sure if he's going to beat Freeland.
00:11:24.080 I'm not sure if he's going to beat Ruby Dalla with all of her ironic support.
00:11:27.120 But this is going to hurt him because all the other leadership candidates, because they all have an angle to win here, it's not like he's way out in front.
00:11:37.040 He might be out in front now, but after they go through debates and whatnot, he might not be.
00:11:41.620 The membership deadline is currently closed.
00:11:44.720 I don't suspect Mark Carney people are ride or die.
00:11:47.300 And as he starts taking fire from other candidates as being the Trudeau puppet, how is he going to run as the leader of the Liberal Party later when the Conservative Party can run ad after ad of Freeland and Ruby Dalla and Chandra Aria and all these other people basically saying he is the coronated, installed Trudeau fourth term candidate?
00:12:09.760 It is certainly looking like Mark is the choice of the Liberal establishment.
00:12:18.240 It is certainly looking like he is the PMO's candidate.
00:12:24.020 Freeland was not able to offer any evidence that allowed her to make that assertion.
00:12:29.300 Guys, Rosemary Barton there, and I like that that was added on to the end of that segment. 1.00
00:12:34.500 Rosemary Barton is saying she is fact-checking Chrystia Freeland, somebody who she would have never, ever doubted a word from in her entire career, would have never contradicted Chrystia Freeland in anything.
00:12:48.380 But as soon as Chrystia Freeland trains fire on Mark Carney and says, hey, that guy is the person who the team Trudeau's backing, who Katie Telford and Gerald Butts and Trudeau and Rob Silver and all those people are backing.
00:13:04.320 David Lamedi, people who have already resigned from office, are coming back to support Mark Carney.
00:13:08.960 He is everyone from Trudeau's wedding party.
00:13:11.500 And Rosemary Barton has the audacity to say she didn't offer any evidence to substantiate that.
00:13:16.900 Did you ask her for any?
00:13:18.260 She probably could lay out reams of evidence for absolute years. 0.90
00:13:23.080 Again, is Freeland a real outsider?
00:13:25.920 No.
00:13:26.800 Compared to Mark Carney, my goodness, she might as well be Maxime Bernier compared to Mark Carney.
00:13:32.720 It's wild.
00:13:34.020 Look, watching Mark Carney's campaign, getting all this artificial energy and support from the team Trudeau.
00:13:39.820 And everyone's just sitting around thinking, oh, yeah, look, look at this outsider candidate.
00:13:44.300 He's never been an MP.
00:13:45.540 That means he's not an insider.
00:13:48.380 Would if Gerald Butts ran, would he be an outsider because he's never been an MP?
00:13:52.200 I think not.
00:13:54.300 Here is the new app, the Nanos poll that also shows that while the liberals are getting a small bump from Trudeau stepping down, the conservatives are still leading pretty widely.
00:14:04.300 42% to 25%, this poll question specifically asserted that, hey, if Trudeau is no longer the leader and there's somebody new, who would you vote for?
00:14:14.500 And even then, they're still only punching 25% in this poll.
00:14:17.840 Maybe if you said Mark Carney, would it be better?
00:14:20.220 Sure.
00:14:21.080 But I don't really think so.
00:14:22.740 And I thought this chart that David Coletto from Abacus Data posted was fairly elucidating to what we're seeing right now, because we see some polls out of, like, Ontario.
00:14:34.000 It's an Ontario federal poll showing the liberals actually leading, or ECOS, with Frank Graves, who is a straight-up propagandist.
00:14:41.300 I will show you the tweet again from Frank Graves that he deleted.
00:14:45.780 Here is a Frank Graves post.
00:14:47.160 He runs ECOS Research.
00:14:48.400 He said,
00:14:49.280 A real conservative option is a healthy counterbalance and a healthy democracy.
00:14:53.340 Pierre Polyev is an accolade of authoritarian populism.
00:14:56.560 This is never healthy.
00:14:58.000 You are on notice, going to make sure you are never going to leave my country.
00:15:02.620 I don't make idle threats.
00:15:04.840 And this idle threat was followed up by him deleting the idle threat, because Frank Graves is a complete clown.
00:15:10.400 And this guy runs a pollster that all the liberals are turning to to show that there is a real trend in favor of the liberals making big gains.
00:15:19.740 He actually then deleted another tweet supposedly showing that the liberals had come within 3% of the conservatives federally.
00:15:28.000 It's nonsense.
00:15:28.740 Other pollsters, even Kudo Maggie at Main Street, who showed that provincial poll showing the liberals ahead in Ontario, agreed that Frank Graves' trend is not at all realistic.
00:15:40.060 And I don't even agree with Kudo's polling provincially, like, you know, the federal polling for Ontario as a province that showed the liberals ahead.
00:15:48.640 Because his last poll 10 days ago, before that one, showed the conservatives ahead by, like, 15 points.
00:15:54.180 So I'm skeptical of anyone saying that the liberals are suddenly ahead.
00:15:58.240 I think it's because Kudo was mixing a provincial poll and a federal poll at the same time.
00:16:02.700 And when you ask people about the four PCs who are deeply unpopular, question after question, then you ask them about the federal election, they'll probably just default to what they were telling you when it came to the provincial election.
00:16:13.660 And in the provincial election, it is true, unless you're looking at campaign researcher Leger, that the liberals are actually gaining, the Ontario Liberal Party.
00:16:24.220 In a certain sense, why shouldn't they?
00:16:26.360 Doug Ford is basically a liberal.
00:16:28.560 I challenge you to find a real policy difference between Bonnie Crombie and Doug Ford.
00:16:35.160 It's impossible.
00:16:36.900 Doug Ford's pro-business.
00:16:38.780 In what way?
00:16:39.700 He subsidizes business.
00:16:40.760 He doesn't actually lower taxes.
00:16:42.840 Never has.
00:16:43.660 Maybe the gas tax, I think, technically went down by a couple cents.
00:16:47.780 Cool.
00:16:48.560 Even Wob Canoe did that in Manitoba, and that guy's a socialist.
00:16:52.140 Anyways, that was a big digression.
00:16:55.100 But this is the weirdest leadership race I've ever seen.
00:16:58.920 And I guarantee you, Fetch is not going to happen throughout all of this.
00:17:03.340 Mark Carney is not somebody that people are suddenly going to look at and be like, oh, what a fresh face.
00:17:09.060 And I think that I'm really starting to enjoy the Ruby Dalek praise, although if I'm voting in this liberal leadership race, I still have to back my boy Frank Bayliss.
00:17:19.360 Again, for ironic reasons, he's just the most conservative one.
00:17:22.880 But Ruby Dalla actually probably has outshined him now. 1.00
00:17:26.300 She is putting this out as a campaign advertisement.
00:17:29.180 She was approved as a candidate.
00:17:30.800 She was a former MP between 2004 and 2011.
00:17:34.200 And she says, Canadians don't want Trudeau 2.0.
00:17:37.840 If we're going to beat the Conservatives, we need real change.
00:17:40.580 And she even posts the polling statistics from Angus Reid showing how badly Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland would perform.
00:17:49.100 Obviously, if you polled Ruby Dalla, she would perform even worse than those two because nobody knows who she is. 1.00
00:17:56.800 But still, she has a point.
00:17:59.180 Mark Carney, despite all of the absolute campaign steroids being injected into him, is not moving the needle much at all.
00:18:07.160 In fact, if you just left Trudeau and you didn't start trying to remove him back in July of last year,
00:18:12.780 there wasn't all these sort of bumps in the road of people saying maybe he should resign,
00:18:16.900 he'd probably be doing way better right now.
00:18:19.600 But this is where the liberals have put themselves and they want to go through their delusional fantasy.
00:18:24.180 Oh, I forgot to bring up the David Coletto thing.
00:18:26.000 I said I was going to, and then I tricked you guys.
00:18:29.200 Here is the 1993 polling charts.
00:18:33.140 Right before the writ was dropped, or shortly before, around that dip at the beginning-ish point of 1993,
00:18:40.660 that is where Kim Campbell becomes the PC leader.
00:18:44.440 She becomes the PC leader here.
00:18:46.240 The PC party have a big resurgence in the polls from trailing behind the NDP or being barely ahead of them,
00:18:52.640 way down below 20%.
00:18:54.240 And then they come all the way back up to the mid-30s,
00:18:56.940 and they look like they're going to challenge the Chrétien Liberals.
00:19:00.080 And then they die off and bleed out, because it is a polling mirage from having an unpopular leader leave.
00:19:07.120 Kim Campbell is a terrible leader.
00:19:09.040 But on paper, oh, look, the polling is showing that people would like somebody other than Mulroney.
00:19:14.300 Does that mean they want Kim Campbell?
00:19:16.200 Oh, goodness, no.
00:19:17.700 They would have been better with Mulroney.
00:19:19.160 And now we are going through the same thing.
00:19:21.920 In fact, the American Democrats just went through this.
00:19:24.660 They got rid of Joe Biden and replaced him with Kamala Harris.
00:19:28.720 Unpopular opinion.
00:19:29.880 Like, I would have probably voted for Trump in the U.S., obviously.
00:19:32.720 But unpopular opinion.
00:19:33.920 Joe Biden was a far better candidate than Kamala Harris.
00:19:37.100 Oh, well, there's internal polling showing he was doing worse.
00:19:39.620 Okay, might have been an outlier, even in internal polling.
00:19:42.600 The thing with Joe Biden is at least people knew his name.
00:19:45.720 There was actually not very high name recognition for Kamala Harris, even towards the end of the campaign.
00:19:50.260 Because to run for president, you've got to have, like, 100% name recognition.
00:19:54.620 By the end, Kamala was still probably running with about 80%.
00:19:58.080 Nobody really liked her.
00:19:59.700 You thought, they thought, they were so drunk.
00:20:02.680 They thought that Scranton Joe would do worse in Pennsylvania than the sanctimonious California Democratic senator and then vice president.
00:20:13.280 No, that's insane.
00:20:14.960 Do you think a central banker from the Northwest Territories who speaks meh French is going to do better than Justin Trudeau, the son of the former prime minister, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who's from Montreal?
00:20:31.000 Again, I think Justin Trudeau is an idiot.
00:20:33.660 I think he's a terrible prime minister.
00:20:35.720 He's done horrible, corrupt, illegal things.
00:20:38.200 At the same time, if I'm in the liberal, like, advisory council, not that I'd ever want to be, I'm an orthodox conservative, I would be saying, guys, there is literally nothing on paper that makes Freeland or Carney or any of these other people a better option than Trudeau.
00:20:57.720 Were we still going to lose?
00:20:59.080 Sure, but let's go down swinging with the guy that we already had rather than wasting all this time and effort into basically just having our party savage itself to have a boring leader get destroyed by the conservatives.
00:21:15.560 Polyev's going to mop the floor with these people, and it's because they don't actually have any policy differences with Trudeau.
00:21:21.920 So, as people know Mark Carney more and more, there's going to be more capacity to attack him, because he has backed every stupid liberal play in the past several years.
00:21:31.500 People are being like, ooh, the conservatives don't know what to do now that Mark Carney might be the leader if not Trudeau.
00:21:36.360 They can't just talk about the carbon tax all day.
00:21:38.900 I agree that they shouldn't talk about the carbon tax all day, but Carney is a big open borders guy, a big high immigration guy, CBDC, central bank digital currency guy, high taxes, high regulations, anti-pipelines,
00:21:50.620 invests in pipelines and energy projects in Brazil and the UAE, but opposes them in Alberta.
00:21:56.820 He is a nutcase. He is not going to run well.
00:21:59.660 Again, he is the Kamala Harris of the Liberal Party right now.
00:22:05.560 Oddly enough, Chrystia Freeland is like the Bernie Sanders of the Liberal Party. 0.99
00:22:09.320 She even posted something agreeing with Bernie Sanders that America should have Canadian health care, even though our health care is objectively worse right now.
00:22:17.220 That's it for me today, guys.
00:22:18.860 Again, like this video, subscribe to the channel if you like what I do here, leave a comment.
00:22:25.500 Are you feeling the Ruby Dala momentum?
00:22:28.500 That's pretty much it for me, guys.
00:22:30.440 See you later.