A new poll from the Angus Reid Institute shows that even if Chrystia Freeland becomes the next Liberal Party Leader, the party is still going to lose to the Conservatives in the next election. And it's not even close to a close race between her and Mark Carney.
00:00:00.000As the federal liberal leadership race drags on and slowly drives me insane and all the candidates try and make the case that they are in fact the outsider candidate, it looks like all of this might not even matter because there is a new poll out from the Angus Reid Institute showing that whether Mark Carney is the new federal liberal leader or it's Chrystia Freeland, the liberals are still going to lose.
00:00:23.980Here, Polyev and the conservatives are still going to win a massive majority and it looks like this entire liberal leadership race was just an exercise in futility that they ended up injuring the liberal party to get rid of Justin Trudeau and by picking a new leader, they're only bringing themselves back up to the polling levels that they were at before the process began to slowly shove Justin Trudeau out the door.
00:00:48.340Very ironic, very funny to watch. I want to bring you through the numbers today as well as comment on the way that many of these liberal leadership candidates are positioning themselves, but before we get into it guys, this leadership race is extremely boring for me to cover and I am trying to spice it up.
00:01:06.680So make sure to like this video, leave a comment, and if you're not yet a subscriber, please subscribe to the channel, I will be covering this liberal leadership race, soup to nuts, I will be covering the next federal election, I'm covering the Ontario provincial election, I cover everything, so if you want to stay up to date on Canadian politics, make sure you subscribe.
00:01:25.700Anyways, here are the numbers from the Angus Reid Institute hypothetical polls if Christia Freeland or Mark Carney are the liberal leader and how the liberal party stacks up in national politics.
00:01:39.420Now, remember that this Angus Reid poll showed that if Justin Trudeau was still the leader, basically the generic liberal party under Justin Trudeau right now polls at 22%.
00:01:50.600But if they then ask the modified question, okay, well what if Mark Carney is the leader, what if Christia Freeland is the leader, they really don't increase all that much.
00:01:59.680Yes, Mark Carney goes from 22 to 29, but this is still 4% below the pretty eh kind of performance the liberals had in the 2021 federal election.
00:02:12.600Christia Freeland has an even more abysmal result, only going from 22 to 24%.
00:02:18.720And the thing that's wild about this is that Freeland's making it out that she is the outsider candidate in this leadership race between her and Carney.
00:02:27.660And that's actually not exactly incorrect.
00:02:31.360Is Christia Freeland absolutely an insider by any objective metrics?
00:02:36.320By a relative metric to Mark Carney, she in fact is an outsider.
00:02:40.520Katie Telford, Gerald Butts, Justin Trudeau, Rob Silver, all of these people from the prime minister's office and Trudeau himself control Mark Carney's campaign.
00:02:50.840So Christia Freeland, in fact, is the outsider, but because in the general public's mind, she's the most obviously visually tied to Trudeau because they were always at press conferences, she was his deputy prime minister, she was his finance minister, that does not wash away the bad taste of Trudeau from people's mouths when they hear about Christia Freeland's name.
00:03:12.540So there's more people willing to trick themselves into thinking that Mark Carney is different, and that's why the party's doing better under them.
00:03:20.040But again, make no mistake, this is a horrible outcome for the Liberal Party.
00:03:25.800The Liberals got rounding up a little bit, 33% in 2021.
00:03:31.360And again, a 2021 outcome is not good enough to beat the Conservatives.
00:03:35.880Look, Conservatives up against Carney are still at 43%.
00:03:40.000And that is barely any different if it's Christia Freeland.
00:03:44.360The big difference between Carney and Freeland is that Carney grabs up one point from the block, the block falls from 10 to 9, and he grabs up 4% from the NDP because truly Jagmeet Singh is the worst leader the NDP has had since like the 80s.
00:04:04.320And that's the only reason that the party's doing better under Mark Carney.
00:04:07.600And I've seen so many Liberals celebrating this poll result showing that, see, Mark Carney is rising up.
00:04:14.660Yes, I would give you that his name recognition is still pretty low right now.
00:04:19.340I guarantee even Canadians watching TV every day with political coverage, only about half can probably pick out Mark Carney in a lineup, and most of them probably won't even be able to give you the exact name of him if they see his picture.
00:04:32.120But the problem is, as he gains name recognition, the Conservatives' attacks are going to become more harsh in the sense that the amount of the significance that the attacks are going to have, because it's hard to attack a guy that nobody knows.
00:04:46.500But it's also hard for a party to run with a guy at the helm that nobody knows.
00:04:50.500And so right now, the problem is, as more people understand who Carney is, it gives the Conservatives a greater capacity to define who he is, that he is a Trudeau insider, that he has been the economic advisor for the last few years, and he has given us the high inflation that we've had.
00:05:09.300He supports central bank digital currencies.
00:05:11.420He's been getting endorsements from all the most radical liberal MPs, people who are pro-terror, pro-drug legalization, all that sort of stuff.
00:05:18.720And that's going to severely impact him.
00:05:21.580So yes, maybe he still crawls up a few more points as we get closer to the next federal election.
00:05:26.560Maybe he even does two to three points better than the Liberals did in 2021.
00:05:34.520Okay, well, 36% up against 43%, unless he steals a lot of support from the Conservatives, but this poll has shown that he really doesn't take much from them at all.
00:05:44.060Well, he's not going to beat the Conservatives where the Conservatives have their strength.
00:05:48.680The Liberals will gain support back in downtown Toronto, downtown Montreal, where a large portion of their loss of support over the last eight months has come from.
00:05:57.600But that just means the Liberals are treading water with two-thirds of the seats that they won in 2021.
00:06:02.820And if you have seen the seat projections, that's not enough to win, especially as the Conservatives are grabbing up seats from the NDP.
00:06:12.200They could even technically beat Elizabeth May and Saanich in the Gulf Islands.
00:06:15.840I want to show you this that Sheree Atis put up.
00:06:19.500He runs the website Polywave Great Polling website.
00:06:21.860And he modeled out what the current outcome would be with these results for the Liberals if they are at 29% with Mark Carney.
00:06:57.820I don't quite believe that Elizabeth May will lose her seat because she basically owns her fiefdom on Saanich in the Gulf Islands.
00:07:05.600But this is actually the thing that the Liberals should be very concerned about, that at some point there's only so many NDP seats they can bleed away.
00:07:15.120Because the Liberals are in fact losing seats to the Conservatives, but they are kind of subsidizing themselves by taking seats from the NDP, the seats that the Conservatives aren't taking.
00:07:24.760So with Carney, you end up hitting a pretty hard floor.
00:07:28.440However, this is concerning for the Liberals, that when you run Carney or Freeland, your main appeal is taking votes away from the further left party.
00:07:38.220It should demonstrate that who you're trying to run is a very far left or left-wing coded candidate.
00:07:45.860I have literally seen liberal influencers online celebrating that he is a technocrat.
00:07:51.660Do you think if you put that on a poster, a campaign poster, that people would want to vote for a technocrat?
00:07:58.040In a period of Canadian politics that's more populist than ever, you're going to run a central banker who calls himself a European and also is celebrated as a technocrat.
00:08:08.640You might be drunk if you run this guy, if you think that he is actually going to change anything.
00:08:13.920And look at this. I know she is an ironic candidate, but Ruby Dalla, who all the people who were previously signing up to troll the Liberal Party to vote for Chandra Aria have shifted over to,
00:08:26.420she at times in those last couple of days has been ranking above Mark Carney in Google Trends views because Mark Carney does not actually have that much excitement.
00:08:36.520If you saw the Google Trends charts when Polyev was running a 22 against Leslie Lewis and Charest and Patrick Brown and Aitchison, the chart, also right when Weber was there, the chart was pure Polyev with 80% of the Google searches and everyone else.
00:08:53.020Mark Carney is above everyone because he is getting so much push from the media, so much push from the Liberal Party establishment.
00:09:00.440But other than that, there's not many people organically wanting to go check out what Mark Carney's all about because he's boring.
00:09:08.280He just sucks. That's all you can really say about him.
00:09:10.800Here's a really cringy video of him accepting Mark Miller's endorsement.
00:09:17.260Why would you even want Mark Miller's endorsement?
00:09:19.680He's the guy who has ended up screwing up the immigration system.
00:09:23.760He finally had to lower immigration because of how bad it got, but he is one of the most awful, he is one of the, like, the poster children for bad liberal policy right now.
00:09:34.100And Mark Carney is warmly embracing him, another member of Trudeau's wedding party.
00:09:43.600Oh, I got the French version, but you get the point.
00:09:46.080They do this weird, like, Kamala Harris phone call video.
00:09:49.360Maybe I'm going to quickly go grab it for you guys.
00:09:51.180He does this weird Kamala Harris phone call video where, like, he's calling up Mark Carney because they're such great friends and we needed to see this live on camera.
00:10:04.000There's a reason I keep saying that Mark Carney and Christy Freeland have beige personalities.
00:10:09.060They are the personification of the color beige because there's nothing about him that makes you think, I want to see this guy in a podcast.
00:11:05.100I didn't realize that was actually his video.
00:11:08.500That was actually the English version.
00:11:10.920Anyways, here's a great clip of Christia Freeland talking about herself as the outsider candidate.
00:11:17.080And this is what's also going to be hurting Mark Carney if we assume he's going to win.
00:11:22.180I'm not even sure if he's going to beat Freeland.
00:11:24.080I'm not sure if he's going to beat Ruby Dalla with all of her ironic support.
00:11:27.120But this is going to hurt him because all the other leadership candidates, because they all have an angle to win here, it's not like he's way out in front.
00:11:37.040He might be out in front now, but after they go through debates and whatnot, he might not be.
00:11:41.620The membership deadline is currently closed.
00:11:44.720I don't suspect Mark Carney people are ride or die.
00:11:47.300And as he starts taking fire from other candidates as being the Trudeau puppet, how is he going to run as the leader of the Liberal Party later when the Conservative Party can run ad after ad of Freeland and Ruby Dalla and Chandra Aria and all these other people basically saying he is the coronated, installed Trudeau fourth term candidate?
00:12:09.760It is certainly looking like Mark is the choice of the Liberal establishment.
00:12:18.240It is certainly looking like he is the PMO's candidate.
00:12:24.020Freeland was not able to offer any evidence that allowed her to make that assertion.
00:12:29.300Guys, Rosemary Barton there, and I like that that was added on to the end of that segment.
00:12:34.500Rosemary Barton is saying she is fact-checking Chrystia Freeland, somebody who she would have never, ever doubted a word from in her entire career, would have never contradicted Chrystia Freeland in anything.
00:12:48.380But as soon as Chrystia Freeland trains fire on Mark Carney and says, hey, that guy is the person who the team Trudeau's backing, who Katie Telford and Gerald Butts and Trudeau and Rob Silver and all those people are backing.
00:13:04.320David Lamedi, people who have already resigned from office, are coming back to support Mark Carney.
00:13:08.960He is everyone from Trudeau's wedding party.
00:13:11.500And Rosemary Barton has the audacity to say she didn't offer any evidence to substantiate that.
00:13:54.300Here is the new app, the Nanos poll that also shows that while the liberals are getting a small bump from Trudeau stepping down, the conservatives are still leading pretty widely.
00:14:04.30042% to 25%, this poll question specifically asserted that, hey, if Trudeau is no longer the leader and there's somebody new, who would you vote for?
00:14:14.500And even then, they're still only punching 25% in this poll.
00:14:17.840Maybe if you said Mark Carney, would it be better?
00:14:22.740And I thought this chart that David Coletto from Abacus Data posted was fairly elucidating to what we're seeing right now, because we see some polls out of, like, Ontario.
00:14:34.000It's an Ontario federal poll showing the liberals actually leading, or ECOS, with Frank Graves, who is a straight-up propagandist.
00:14:41.300I will show you the tweet again from Frank Graves that he deleted.
00:15:04.840And this idle threat was followed up by him deleting the idle threat, because Frank Graves is a complete clown.
00:15:10.400And this guy runs a pollster that all the liberals are turning to to show that there is a real trend in favor of the liberals making big gains.
00:15:19.740He actually then deleted another tweet supposedly showing that the liberals had come within 3% of the conservatives federally.
00:15:28.740Other pollsters, even Kudo Maggie at Main Street, who showed that provincial poll showing the liberals ahead in Ontario, agreed that Frank Graves' trend is not at all realistic.
00:15:40.060And I don't even agree with Kudo's polling provincially, like, you know, the federal polling for Ontario as a province that showed the liberals ahead.
00:15:48.640Because his last poll 10 days ago, before that one, showed the conservatives ahead by, like, 15 points.
00:15:54.180So I'm skeptical of anyone saying that the liberals are suddenly ahead.
00:15:58.240I think it's because Kudo was mixing a provincial poll and a federal poll at the same time.
00:16:02.700And when you ask people about the four PCs who are deeply unpopular, question after question, then you ask them about the federal election, they'll probably just default to what they were telling you when it came to the provincial election.
00:16:13.660And in the provincial election, it is true, unless you're looking at campaign researcher Leger, that the liberals are actually gaining, the Ontario Liberal Party.
00:16:24.220In a certain sense, why shouldn't they?
00:16:55.100But this is the weirdest leadership race I've ever seen.
00:16:58.920And I guarantee you, Fetch is not going to happen throughout all of this.
00:17:03.340Mark Carney is not somebody that people are suddenly going to look at and be like, oh, what a fresh face.
00:17:09.060And I think that I'm really starting to enjoy the Ruby Dalek praise, although if I'm voting in this liberal leadership race, I still have to back my boy Frank Bayliss.
00:17:19.360Again, for ironic reasons, he's just the most conservative one.
00:17:22.880But Ruby Dalla actually probably has outshined him now.
00:17:26.300She is putting this out as a campaign advertisement.
00:19:59.700You thought, they thought, they were so drunk.
00:20:02.680They thought that Scranton Joe would do worse in Pennsylvania than the sanctimonious California Democratic senator and then vice president.
00:20:14.960Do you think a central banker from the Northwest Territories who speaks meh French is going to do better than Justin Trudeau, the son of the former prime minister, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who's from Montreal?
00:20:31.000Again, I think Justin Trudeau is an idiot.
00:20:33.660I think he's a terrible prime minister.
00:20:38.200At the same time, if I'm in the liberal, like, advisory council, not that I'd ever want to be, I'm an orthodox conservative, I would be saying, guys, there is literally nothing on paper that makes Freeland or Carney or any of these other people a better option than Trudeau.
00:20:59.080Sure, but let's go down swinging with the guy that we already had rather than wasting all this time and effort into basically just having our party savage itself to have a boring leader get destroyed by the conservatives.
00:21:15.560Polyev's going to mop the floor with these people, and it's because they don't actually have any policy differences with Trudeau.
00:21:21.920So, as people know Mark Carney more and more, there's going to be more capacity to attack him, because he has backed every stupid liberal play in the past several years.
00:21:31.500People are being like, ooh, the conservatives don't know what to do now that Mark Carney might be the leader if not Trudeau.
00:21:36.360They can't just talk about the carbon tax all day.
00:21:38.900I agree that they shouldn't talk about the carbon tax all day, but Carney is a big open borders guy, a big high immigration guy, CBDC, central bank digital currency guy, high taxes, high regulations, anti-pipelines,
00:21:50.620invests in pipelines and energy projects in Brazil and the UAE, but opposes them in Alberta.
00:21:56.820He is a nutcase. He is not going to run well.
00:21:59.660Again, he is the Kamala Harris of the Liberal Party right now.
00:22:05.560Oddly enough, Chrystia Freeland is like the Bernie Sanders of the Liberal Party.
00:22:09.320She even posted something agreeing with Bernie Sanders that America should have Canadian health care, even though our health care is objectively worse right now.