In this episode, we take a look at where things stand in the latest Nanos poll, and try to figure out if the results are representative of where Canadians are feeling about the current political landscape in Canada. We also talk about why I don't think the polls are as bad as they seem.
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. It's been a while since we did a polling update for federal politics in Canada, but I think it's good for us to take a look at where things currently stand.
00:00:12.920Obviously, Mark Carney and the Liberals are currently in a polling honeymoon. They just won the last election a couple months ago, so naturally a lot of Canadians are willing to say that yes, they want them in office because, well, they won, let's give them a chance.
00:00:28.600But while people have been going around showing off the results of the recent Nanos poll, which we will be looking at, I don't believe it's actually representative of where Canadians are at.
00:00:39.800I don't think people have shifted massively in favor of the Liberals. I think that the Liberals have experienced a small bump.
00:00:46.160In fact, the Liberals have been experiencing a lot of bumps over the last year because of the various shakeups that have occurred.
00:00:53.480Getting rid of Trudeau revived the Liberals' popularity, and then Mark Carney becoming a leader gave them a bump, and then after they won, they get a bump.
00:01:02.080They've been having a lot of luck recently with events having fallen into line perfectly for them to get back into office.
00:01:08.880And I do want to say, right before we get into these polling results, I know people think that polls are, like, not to be trusted.
00:01:17.040I would say trust good polls, and that's why we will be talking about Abacus Data today. They do a very good job.
00:01:24.120Nanos was okay in the last election, but as I was saying during that election, the polls were not wildly off, but they were not entirely accurate.
00:01:32.500Generally speaking, I would say the best way of correcting for polling bias or polling error, usually the bias is just in them calling too many urban voters and not enough rural voters,
00:01:43.160is that what you should do is lower the Liberal number a little bit and raise the Conservative number a little bit because that was the general polling error in this last election.
00:01:52.640Conservatives usually did a little bit better than what most polls showed, and the Liberals did a little bit worse.
00:01:57.600If the Conservatives literally got 0.3% more, 0.5% more in the election, they would have probably won the minority government.
00:02:06.660There were only 8,000 votes off in the closest ridings that they needed to win from the Liberals in order to be in office.
00:02:13.540It was very, very close, and people pretend that it was a big disappointment.
00:02:18.280It's just that the votes in very specific ridings just did not come in where the Conservatives thought they were going to come in.
00:02:29.640He does a very good job presenting the data online.
00:02:32.920By the way, out of all of the people projecting the results of the election, Shreya Teest and the Great Canadian Bagel, who I also plug, were the two most accurate polling projectors.
00:02:45.640Shreya Teest just graduated from grade 11.
00:02:48.920He is probably one of the smartest people currently in Canadian political data.
00:03:30.000To act as if, like about what would it be, 11, 12% of Conservatives defected over to the Liberals, or a bunch of them defected back to the NDP just recently, doesn't really stand to reason.
00:03:43.140But I do want to show you what that kind of poll would result in when it comes to the overall map of Canadian politics.
00:03:51.060Sherey Attiste, again, does a great job displaying this stuff, and he shows that the Liberals, out of a result like this, would win 216 seats, Conservatives 93, NDP 19, Bloc 11, and Greens 3.
00:04:05.580That's usually a good sign that's not a good poll when the Greens are above two seats, because they only won one in the last election, and I don't think enough Canadians are clamoring for the NDP to make a big comeback.
00:04:17.720I think that this is just, again, a bit of a snafu of Liberals being energized after winning an election, and being far more likely to actually pick up the phone and take a poll.
00:04:28.040Now, let's jump over to the abacus numbers, because I think that these ones are genuinely just better.
00:04:35.960I'm not just picking polls that I think are good, I'm picking polls that are realistic.
00:04:40.920Do you think that the NDP, since getting clobbered and getting 6% of the vote, have now gone up to 12%?
00:05:17.080And by the way, when it says the NDP are negative 1% and they're at 7%, that is based off of the last abacus poll done, because of course the NDP only got 6% in the last election.
00:05:29.360This is a poll, like abacus tends to base what the change is, not based on the last election, but based on their last poll.
00:05:36.740Other pollsters always based the percent increase or decrease based on previous election results.
00:05:42.300I always like it this way because it demonstrates the changes that are happening slowly over time rather than the big macro change from last election.
00:05:50.000So, yeah, that's what you can see here on the bar chart that Sherey Attiste made.
00:07:38.120Conservatives basically voted for a bill to speed up projects.
00:07:42.780That the liberals get to fast track infrastructure projects, you know, major mines, pipelines, oil and gas projects, green energy projects.
00:07:52.280But the conservatives voted for it because it would have not actually passed unless they did it.
00:07:58.440The NDP, the bloc, and the green MPs all voted against it.
00:08:02.580And so what the conservatives are doing is saying, okay, Carney, here is the power to do what you want.
00:08:10.980Again, of course, the conservatives are opposing insane things like Bill C-2, the border bill that would let the government read your mail and like download your phone and whatnot.
00:08:19.400Of course, they oppose stuff like that.
00:08:20.720But Bill C-5, it's only bad because it's not real deregulation.
00:08:25.500It's selective deregulation for projects that Carney and his cabinet like.
00:08:30.080But by letting it pass, now Polyev and the conservatives get to say, okay, Carney, get stuff done.
00:08:36.120And if they don't get stuff done, Mark Carney doesn't get to go around pointing finger and saying, well, you guys didn't support us.
00:08:45.460They made some minor changes to Bill C-5.
00:08:47.780They did like, and so like it passed with a little, like, so the conservatives got a little bit out of it.
00:08:53.240But they are mostly staying out of the way of Carney.
00:08:56.380And if Carney doesn't get a pipeline built, if mines don't open, if oil and gas projects are not started, well, naturally, a lot of voters are going to turn on the liberals.
00:09:05.120And that is smart politics from the conservatives.
00:09:08.940Now, I do want to show you, actually, this is what David Coletto posted, who is the person who operates Abacus Data.
00:09:16.620He posted the impression chart of Pierre Polyev.
00:09:20.060Now, this is in major contrast with what Nanos has been showing on other pollsters.
00:09:26.820I did show one, I believe, from Angus Reid, which also shows something similar to Abacus.
00:09:32.000But some of the more liberal-leaning pollsters, and I don't mean that based on, like, I'm not saying that because of the ideology of the pollster.
00:09:39.580I frankly don't know most of their ideologies, but in terms of the sampling of Nanos tends to be a little bit more liberal than the actual country is.
00:09:49.060In that last poll we were just looking at was probably way too liberal.
00:09:52.980But Abacus and Angus Reid have showed that Polyev is not unpopular.
00:09:57.780Everyone keeps trying to play up the idea that Canadians rejected him, but they didn't.
00:10:03.520It was that Canadians were fighting Trump.
00:10:06.040That's what a lot of, frankly, retired Canadians were obsessed with in the election.
00:10:11.320Now, if you're a retired Canadian, you probably voted Conservative if you're watching my show.
00:10:15.440But naturally, people who are not working and they own their own homes, maybe live in a nice neighborhood,
00:10:21.500you have kind of the luxury to vote for luxury issues.
00:10:25.780You know, fighting back against Trump became the big thing with many liberal voters.
00:10:29.700And you could blame the Conservative campaign for not doing enough to reach out to those voters and speak to issues that matter to them to win more of them back to capture, to win the election.
00:10:39.700Because if you just won a couple more suburban neighborhoods, if you just swung the suburban vote, like, a few more points to Conservatives, they probably do end up winning the entire election.
00:10:50.760But it wasn't, they didn't hate Polyev.
00:10:54.200Yes, some people really didn't like Polyev.
00:11:01.840Right now, his approval rating is 42% disapproval, 41% approval.
00:11:07.420That's better than it was during the election.
00:11:09.500Like, his disapproval was really bad during the election.
00:11:11.840Frankly, because of mainstream media propaganda, again, the mainstream media is not the be-all, end-all.
00:11:17.300I don't like when people pretend, well, Conservatives can't win because the CBC is just going to slam them.
00:11:22.700People are just going to, like, you know, slander the Conservatives and people won't vote for them.
00:11:26.860It has an effect, not as much as you would think.
00:11:30.040I would say, again, the big thing with the Conservatives is constituencies of voters that they spoke to specifically, like fishermen in Newfoundland or people who care about crime.
00:11:40.300Asian voters usually really care about crime, and they had a much better crime policy than the Liberals did because the Liberals were not committing to getting rid of things like Bill C-75, Bill 5, the previous, not C-5, the one that just passed, but previously there was one that let people off for carrying actually illegal handguns easier.
00:11:59.800So the Conservatives, by opposing things like safe supply drugs and decriminalization and whatnot and wanting harsher sentences for violent offenders and repeat offenders, they did really well in Richmond.
00:12:12.100They did really well in Richmond Hill, Vaughn, by going after the anti-Semitism of the urban centers.
00:12:19.280They ended up winning a lot of more heavily Jewish neighborhoods in places like, you know, the places around Melissa Lansman's riding Thornhill.
00:12:27.400That's why Roman Baber beat Yahara Sachs is because she was enabling all of the Hamasniks going around harassing Jews.
00:12:34.140So that was a good thing the Conservatives did.
00:12:37.080But when it came to that upper middle class retired voter, I think the Conservatives just didn't say anything to them.
00:12:45.800By the way, sorry this video is dragging a bit.
00:12:49.240I do want to tease that I will be getting to an article later in this video where the left-wing rag, the Taiyi, in British Columbia ended up attacking me and a couple of my other colleagues at one BC party in British Columbia.
00:13:05.040But now, just to quickly look at one more thing, I just want to show you guys this ridiculous attack on Peer Polyev.
00:13:14.620And by the way, Polyev is actually doing what I've been saying and other people have been saying.
00:13:19.640He is actually firming up on immigration.
00:13:21.940He has said on his new podcast that he's launched, which is smart.
00:14:04.000And so Polyev is doing the right thing.
00:14:06.340If you're going to win the election, you've got to run on a big, audacious plan.
00:14:11.640You don't win by seeing the liberals say, we're going to cut taxes by 1% under $50,000 and saying, well, we're going to cut taxes by 2.25%.
00:15:35.140But this guy, Henry A., says, this guy wants to be Prime Minister of Canada at a time the American president is trying to crash the economy.
00:15:55.600But yeah, that is the current state of the polls right now.
00:15:59.040Oh, I didn't mention, I don't think, with Shreya Teest what the current seat count would look like with that abacus poll.
00:16:04.640Obviously, it has the liberals a little bit up on the conservatives compared to the actual election results.
00:16:09.780But the abacus poll modeled out, if you guys didn't read it for yourself yet, was 177 seats to the conservatives, 131, Locke, 25, NDP, 7, Greens, 3.
00:16:21.320Again, I don't think the Greens are actually going to get 3.
00:16:23.940In fact, one of those would probably go conservative.
00:16:26.940Conservatives probably wouldn't fall in the seats.
00:16:29.100They'd probably be up higher than this, but the liberals are basically just projected to gain a few more.
00:16:35.240So right now, they would win a majority, but that's not surprising because, again, they are in a honeymoon period for their government.
00:16:44.640When you win, people tend to like you more.
00:16:47.220When you start failing, they will abandon you very quickly.
00:16:50.360Not everyone, but those kind of fair-weather voters who like to pretend that they were on the winning team whether they voted for them or not.
00:17:19.920By the way, guys, I've already been very upfront by the fact that I work for the 1BC party in the legislature.
00:17:26.700I only make $25,000 doing this, which is basically nothing, as any of you would know.
00:17:33.140And I do it because the whole point is I don't want to be labeled as some Albertan coming in to make like $100,000 a year to exploit some sort of base of donors.
00:17:43.420Although, of course, I'm not paid by donors.
00:17:45.860Or to, like, you know, exploit taxpayer dollars or whatever.
00:17:49.580So I make less than bare minimum because this is more of a passion rather than, like, the thing I'm trying to do as my career.
00:17:57.640But I'm going to skip down to the part where they start attacking me, although they actually attack me first.
00:18:02.380They say two of them, three main staffers, were conservative party of BC candidates who lost the last election.
00:18:12.000The third was barred from ever seeking a federal conservative nomination in a Calgary riding.
00:18:17.260Of course, they are referring to me who ran in Calgary Signal Hill.
00:18:21.080By the way, that's something else the conservative party needs to fix.
00:18:23.960Stop arbitrarily kicking people out of nominations.
00:18:26.640I was arbitrarily kicked out because they didn't want me to beat the party favorite, who then still lost the nomination because I made sure he lost the nomination.
00:18:34.880And then that same guy was appointed to another riding and lost it.
00:18:38.460That's why Calgary Confederation is currently red.
00:18:43.160Let's get into the actual meat and potatoes of this thing.
00:18:45.380They say that would be Wyatt Claypool, who started working as an advisor to independent MLA Armstrong last month and now works in the same role for 1BC.
00:18:56.640Claypool does not have a dazzling resume.
00:19:03.680You would think a new BC political party would look for someone with roots and experience in the province.
00:19:09.340Claypool has never lived or worked here, although I did live there for about a two and a half month period working for the BC Conservative Party.
00:19:17.080He basically, this writer who, Paul Wilcox, some washed up hippie, seems to have just gone through my LinkedIn profile, which I don't update because I hate LinkedIn.
00:19:28.400It would be very obvious to see that I have not updated in a very long time because I'm constantly doing things that I post elsewhere.
00:19:36.160But he's just gone to LinkedIn to kind of, you know, pretend that I don't do anything.
00:19:40.700He says, Claypool has never lived or worked here, nor has he worked in government or for a political party.
00:19:51.680I have worked on several campaigns, not just in volunteer positions, although sometimes I do things for free, even though I'm in a position where usually you would get paid.
00:20:21.480I tell people not to pay me because the whole point is I want them to keep as much money on the field.
00:20:26.220Even in British Columbia, when I was a campaign manager and organizer, I took very little money compared to other people in the BC Conservatives.
00:20:34.220By the way, the BC Conservatives are currently around $5.3 million in debt because a bunch of them overpaid themselves, overpaid contractors for not doing very good work.
00:20:44.420I got very little overall, and I didn't even bill anything to the donors of that party.
00:20:49.280This is also why I now work for 1BC, because I can't stand the way that the BC Conservatives treat their donors and their members.
00:20:59.760In fact, Claypool doesn't have much of a work history.
00:21:02.680Part-time at a liquor store as he studied towards a master's degree award two years ago,
00:21:07.280and then co-owner and presenter with the National Telegraph, which shares his amazingly dull political commentaries.
00:21:14.680Add to that the fact that pure poly of Conservatives refused to allow the then 24-year-old Claypool to try and win the party nomination, Calgary Signal Hill, disqualifying him for undisclosed reasons.
00:21:27.080They always do that to basically imply, hmm, must be something wrong with him.
00:22:00.140If you guys have ever watched my show, every time I bring up immigration, if I specifically talk about people who are low income,
00:22:06.120I'm usually talking about it from the perspective that it's not only not good for the country to bring in this many people who don't have good skills,
00:22:13.100it's not good for those people in general.
00:22:15.040Coming to a country like this, where you need a lot of wealth and skills to actually live comfortably,
00:22:20.140especially if you're going to have a larger family,
00:22:22.080it's bad for those people coming in from other countries who don't have built-up wealth and don't have skills,
00:22:26.960and are going to be living as effectively rent seekers for their entire lives if they actually end up sticking around here.
00:22:33.640Like, maybe their kids will do better, but this is not, like, a place where you can, like, just, you know,
00:22:39.060put your nose to the grindstone and live in a nice house or even own a home at all.
00:22:44.420Maybe if we lowered taxes and did other stuff like that, we could, but you'd also have to lower immigration.
00:22:48.900But again, he slips it in there saying, like, oh, he, especially poor ones, as if I have, like,
00:22:54.480if I've gone on some sort of, like, anti-poor immigrant ranch or something like that,
00:22:58.160like, screw these people for wanting to make money.