The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Poll show BC Conservatives on track to beat Eby's NDP

00:00:00.000 We have some very exciting polling news coming out of British Columbia today showing that, yes, indeed, John Rustad's BC Conservative Party is on track to beat Premier David Eby's BC NDP.

00:00:12.780 Remember that at the start of this year, the BC NDP were able to lead their closest opponent from anywhere from 18% to 28%.

00:00:22.440 Yes, they were able to lead at the beginning of this year up to 28% above their closest competitor.

00:00:28.720 But now, since BC United, formerly the BC Liberals, have completely collapsed under the lack of leadership of Kevin Falcon, John Rustad and the Conservatives have emerged as the main opposition to David Eby.

00:00:41.900 And let's be clear, even though David Eby used to technically be the second and I think at one point the most popular Premier in the country, he actually isn't that popular.

00:00:52.180 He had his honeymoon phase in 2022 and 2023, but as people started to notice that he's far more radical than John Horgan and he's completely out of touch with what middle-class BC residents want, his actual favorability numbers have fallen faster than any other Premier in the country.

00:01:10.520 David Eby is deeply out of touch with what a middle-class BC voter wants, he's radical on drug issues, he has a terrible record on affordability, his SOGI agenda is deeply unpopular with BC parents.

00:01:25.160 Across the board, on policy, people don't like the NDP.

00:01:28.300 They're currently only ahead in most polls because of a lot of soft support.

00:01:33.600 There are people who still haven't really clued into what this next provincial election is all about.

00:01:38.440 They still think it's between the BC NDP and the BC Liberals before the name change.

00:01:43.780 They don't realize that the BC Conservatives are a real viable vehicle in this election.

00:01:48.080 Just take a look at federal polling in British Columbia.

00:01:52.120 The federal Conservatives under Pierre Polyev, who are very close in ideology to the BC Conservatives, are near 50% in British Columbia.

00:02:01.700 If anything, the BC Conservatives are actually probably a little bit more conservative than the federal Conservative Party.

00:02:06.920 So these two parties should probably be polling fairly close.

00:02:10.400 The only reason that the BC Conservatives are not polling up to where the federals are yet is just because name recognition hasn't caught up yet.

00:02:18.180 People don't quite know who John Rustad is, but that can all be healed in time with good spending and just from people paying attention as the election gets closer.

00:02:28.460 But this liaison strategy poll that just came out is really interesting, and I want to talk about the top-line numbers first and then get into the regionals.

00:02:35.940 They're utterly abysmal. But before I get into that, I do want to say, if you guys live in British Columbia and you support the BC Conservative Party as you should,

00:02:45.260 they're an actual good party and they're not crazy like David Eby, please consider donating to the BC Conservatives.

00:02:51.360 They do not pay me to promote them. They do not pay me to get them donations.

00:02:55.440 I live in Alberta, but I'm just basically telling you guys, if you want a change in government, you have to donate to them.

00:03:01.400 If you donate $100, you get 75% of it back in a tax credit. The BC Conservative donation link is in the description of this video below.

00:03:10.100 But without further ado, here is the liaison strategy top-line numbers.

00:03:14.860 The BC NDP are at 40%, the Conservatives are at 38%, the Greens are at 10%, and BC United is at 9%,

00:03:22.540 which is really funny because about two months ago, there was a scuffle between the BC Conservatives and United

00:03:28.600 on who was going to be the main opposition to David Eby. Even back then, the United Party was like 10%

00:03:34.940 behind the Conservatives, but now I think we can say that the BC Conservatives have successfully vanquished

00:03:41.340 the United, and now they're moving on to smash the NDP. And more pessimistic viewers might be thinking,

00:03:47.280 well, the NDP is still ahead. How could the NDP possibly be ahead? Again, it's a lot of soft support.

00:03:52.980 It's a lot of voters who are merely, whenever a pollster calls them up,

00:03:55.900 just telling them that they're voting for the party that they voted for last time.

00:03:59.780 Most people tend to just default to what they've done previously. But as the election date looms

00:04:05.020 closer, when people start taking the decisions of the election more seriously, they are probably

00:04:10.540 going to start migrating towards the Conservatives. The fact that the Conservatives are in a statistical

00:04:14.920 tie right now with the NDP, there's a three-point margin of error, so it is a statistical tie.

00:04:20.000 This demonstrates that the BC Conservatives can easily win this election if even well before the

00:04:26.420 red is dropped, they are tied with the NDP. Who's to say they can't get up to where the federal

00:04:31.940 Conservatives are, 45%, 47%? It's very doable. As you see the trend line here in all of the polling

00:04:38.740 that's been done in British Columbia, it has just been upward momentum across the board.

00:04:43.040 Even from polling firms that are a little bit more pessimistic about the performance of the BC

00:04:49.060 Conservatives, even they have had a steady rise in the BC Conservatives' polling. I think one of

00:04:55.000 the pollsters showed that the BC Conservatives were down like 10 points on the NDP, but even that was

00:04:59.880 an improvement over two and a half months ago when they showed the BC NDP leading by 14 points or 15

00:05:06.120 points. Every pollster is showing that the BC Conservatives are doing well. And the regionals of this

00:05:11.720 poll should be what are keeping people like David Eby up at night because it is not good for the NDP

00:05:17.580 and it shows that they have no room to lose voters. So let's start off with the region actually that the

00:05:24.860 BC NDP does the best. I think, you know, let's start off with the worst news for the BC Conservatives.

00:05:31.260 So currently on Vancouver Island, the BC NDP are leading the Conservatives 43% to 23%. In fact,

00:05:39.560 the Greens are actually in second place on Vancouver Island at 24%, which is actually good for the BC

00:05:44.820 Conservatives because the Greens have the capacity of holding on to their two seats and denying those seats

00:05:50.400 to the NDP. Right now, the polling would suggest that the Greens will only hold on to one seat, but with proper

00:05:56.300 campaigning and concentration of resources, they can probably ward off the NDP in both of those seats. But in

00:06:03.400 Metro Vancouver, so the BC Conservatives even went in third place, sorry, to finish up on Vancouver

00:06:08.560 Island. The BC Conservatives, even in Vancouver Island with a third place showing of 23%, can still

00:06:14.380 win a couple, like two to three seats on Vancouver Island. In the north of the island, in more rural

00:06:20.860 areas, the BC Conservatives have a far stronger appeal than the NDP. The NDP are pretty much just at 43%

00:06:27.740 because they do really well around Victoria. Outside of Victoria, it becomes a far more even neck and neck

00:06:34.940 race between the NDP and the Conservatives depending on the riding. Okay, well now let's move on to Metro

00:06:41.460 Vancouver. This is the very scary one for the NDP. So yes, the NDP are leading in Metro Vancouver, but

00:06:49.940 they're only leading 42% to 39%. Again, when you remember that this poll has a margin of error of

00:06:56.820 3%, that is within the margin of error. They are effectively tied in Metro Vancouver, an area that

00:07:04.340 the NDP needs to absolutely clean up in. And then when we jump down to how the NDP are doing outside of

00:07:12.360 Vancouver, they're absolutely getting smashed by the Conservatives 48% to 33%. So this is outside of

00:07:19.920 Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island. The BC Conservatives are ahead 48% to 33%, which means

00:07:28.760 that the Conservatives could effectively win every single riding outside of the Vancouver and Vancouver

00:07:37.240 Island area. And they can still win ridings in those other two areas. That's a very bad position for

00:07:44.300 the BC NDP to be in. The BC Conservatives, where they're strongest, are a place where the BC NDP

00:07:50.500 can't even compete. But the areas where the NDP are strong, the BC Conservatives can compete. And if

00:07:56.160 they just inch up a little bit more on Vancouver Island, and especially in Metro Vancouver in the Surrey

00:08:02.220 area, they can clean up this entire election. Now, I want to jump over to a map now that I think just

00:08:08.180 like, you know, shows you the geography, the layout of how the selection is going. I think everyone

00:08:13.340 should actually go and follow Sharia Teest on X. I think he does a really good job of generating 1.00

00:08:19.800 these seat projections and maps. So go follow real Albert, Albert, Albanian Pat. I don't know. 0.95

00:08:28.620 Everyone always has weird handles on X. Sorry for muddling that a lot. But his current polling

00:08:32.780 polling projections, seat projections, just based on this liaison strategy poll shows the NDP would

00:08:39.620 win 51 seats over the Conservatives 41, and the Greens would get one seat. But that is a very close

00:08:46.880 election, considering that if the BC Conservatives just inch up three or four more points in the polls,

00:08:52.480 especially if they steal those supporters from the BC NDP, they can easily flip this result.

00:08:58.580 So as we see, the NDP still has a little bit of support in these rural areas. I really doubt this

00:09:04.580 is going to end up holding. The BC Conservatives are going to be able to keep pushing out a lot of

00:09:10.600 rural voters that the BC NDP have just entirely left behind. So I don't think these rural seats are

00:09:15.960 going to be holding for the BC NDP. But let's look in, and I'll try and zoom in as much as I can here.

00:09:21.420 If you can see up in this top right corner, this Surrey area area is going to be a massive vote bank

00:09:29.000 for the Conservatives. I've shown this in previous videos about demographic polling, about different

00:09:37.240 ethnic groups. The BC Conservatives are actually very popular right now with Indian Canadians.

00:09:44.420 Sorry, I had to do a bit of a jump cut there. I had a bit of a fuzzy screen because my internet was

00:09:49.000 clicking out. It's just this location I'm in does not want to stay stable. But as I was saying, the BC

00:09:54.400 Conservatives are actually doing very well with South Asian Canadians. And this Surrey area is very heavily 0.74

00:09:59.920 South Asian. Right now, it shows that the Conservatives are only picking up one seat in the Surrey-BC area.

00:10:05.560 But again, if the polling tightens up in the metro Vancouver area by one or two percent, I could easily

00:10:10.780 see Surrey flipping. Even now, I think Surrey could flip because this polling is just based on generic

00:10:16.540 projections based on what happened in the last election with the current polling taken into

00:10:22.180 account. But when you actually look at South Asian polling, 51 percent of South Asian voters say they're

00:10:29.160 going to vote for the BC Conservative Party. I think only 11 percent are going to be voting for the NDP,

00:10:34.460 and some are also going to be voting for United. But I don't think a lot of United supporters in the

00:10:39.760 South Asian community are going to hold when people realize if you want to protect your small

00:10:43.820 business. There's tons of small business owners in the South Asian community. You've got to vote

00:10:48.760 BC Conservative. So all of this is, yes, still showing an edge for the NDP, but the NDP shouldn't

00:10:55.300 just have an edge. They should be smashing this election. They used to be up 18 points, as I've

00:10:59.940 been saying. So if this thing tightens up even three or four percent, which will inevitably happen as

00:11:06.140 more people know that the BC Conservatives are the real opposition to the NDP, as more people get to

00:11:11.320 know John Rustad, and frankly, as more people see David Eby perform. David Eby is a terrible premier.

00:11:18.600 He is a student union protester who somehow became the premier of the province. He's unelected. He just

00:11:24.740 got acclaimed as the premier. It's pathetic. He, in a certain sense, comes off very young. And I know 1.00

00:11:31.140 I'm saying this as somebody who looks 12 years old, although I'm 25. David Eby just comes off like a

00:11:39.480 18-year-old punk kid compared to John Rustad, who very much is an adult. John Rustad seems like

00:11:45.400 somebody that you can trust to manage serious portfolios to be able to run a province. David

00:11:50.880 Eby looks like, frankly, what his previous job was, writing anti-police books and trying to show you how

00:11:57.920 you can sue the police for petty technicalities in order to take money away from them. He's anti-cop.

00:12:03.640 He is pro-drug. His affordability record is horrible. His SOGI record in education is horrible.

00:12:10.060 David Eby is a terrible premier. And so the fact that this election is this close right now proves

00:12:16.940 that David Eby can't win. It's like, I've seen this before, it's like whenever there's an incumbent

00:12:22.140 president in the United States and somehow they don't have a strong advantage over an unknown

00:12:28.300 challenger. I'm trying to find a good example of this, but there's been some times in, it's like,

00:12:35.440 I guess, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Jimmy Carter had very weak polling. He was still ahead

00:12:39.580 of Ronald Reagan for much of the race early on. But the fact that you're only a little bit ahead

00:12:44.380 of your opponent who hasn't even been nominated yet is a big issue. The BC Conservatives only have

00:12:49.700 four seats. And if they're this close with as little bandwidth as they have, as little spending as

00:12:54.920 they have, imagine what's going to happen when the BC Conservatives actually have a lot of money.

00:12:59.500 The BC NDP are still out fundraising them. But I think in the next two to three months,

00:13:03.320 the BC Conservatives are going to pack away cash and be able to swamp the BC NDP in the fall.

00:13:08.740 The BC NDP are relying on voters who they disrespect. The NDP's base that John Horgan could keep

00:13:14.960 voting for the BC NDP was a lot of blue collar workers. David Eby doesn't look like he even likes to

00:13:21.260 be around construction workers, like factory workers, city employees. He looks like someone

00:13:27.020 who likes to be at cocktail parties. That's where John Rustad has a big advantage. He actually seems

00:13:31.680 like he cares about blue collar workers because he really does. And David Eby seems like he cares

00:13:36.680 about HR employees and people who are activists. That's going to be the main thing that's going to

00:13:42.300 hurt the NDP is they are an activist party and people want a serious governing force, especially

00:13:48.080 knowing that Pierre Polyev is probably going to be the next prime minister of Canada. Why would you

00:13:53.300 want David Eby on one hand, who wants to keep the provincial carbon tax alongside a federal

00:13:58.900 conservative prime minister who's going to get rid of the federal carbon tax, which would leave BC being

00:14:05.360 one of the only two places in Canada next to Quebec, still paying a carbon tax. That's also a big issue

00:14:11.920 with, I know this video is going on a bit, but it's astonishing. David Eby is having to rely on

00:14:16.400 crossover voters that do not exist. A crossover voter, it's like split ticketing in the United

00:14:22.140 States. I'm in the United States right now, so I'm thinking of presidential elections.

00:14:25.780 Split ticketing is like if I was voting a Republican for president, I was voting my Democratic senator

00:14:30.980 and my local congressional congressperson, I was voting Republican again. I'm not voting

00:14:35.920 downline Republican. But the vast majority of voters in any jurisdiction tend to vote downline the

00:14:42.220 same way. If you like a conservative provincially, you like a conservative federally, you like a

00:14:47.160 conservative municipally, you know, vice versa between all of them. You're not going to vote

00:14:51.480 for the big spending socialist pro-drug, pro-carbon tax NDP MLA. At the same time that federally,

00:15:00.400 you're going to be voting for a conservative who wants to scrap the carbon tax. And when 50% of the

00:15:05.800 province right now around that is planning on voting federal conservative, David Eby is in a very awkward

00:15:11.020 position where he's going to have to rely on some federal conservative voters to vote for him.

00:15:16.020 And I don't think that's actually going to happen. Yes, there's 50% of people who aren't voting federal

00:15:21.440 conservative, but there are many liberal federal liberals who vote united, who vote green. There's

00:15:27.540 many federal NDPs who vote provincially green. And so they're actually, he can't dominate that entire

00:15:33.480 other non-conservative half. David Eby needs crossover voters, crossover voters who are entirely

00:15:39.280 opposed to his agenda. Does not matter how much the man pretends to moderate, he cannot moderate

00:15:44.280 enough. Because as much as he thinks that he can put out some affordable housing program, or he can

00:15:49.380 make noises about trying to reduce middle class taxes, or do something to try and reduce the intensity

00:15:55.560 of the decriminalization of drugs program, he's not reversing any of these issues. That's the problem.

00:16:01.540 He is too much of a true believer in socialist policy, in radical postmodern Marxist policy that

00:16:10.260 he can't pull out of this tailspin. He would rather lose an election as a purist left winger than actually

00:16:18.080 win it. Because at heart, he is a social activist who lucked into becoming the premier of Canada's,

00:16:24.600 I think, third biggest province? Yes, third. I know Canadian geography well. But anyways,

00:16:30.300 that should be it for me today, guys. Again, if you live in British Columbia, you can't expect

00:16:34.740 other people to donate to the BC Conservatives so they can beat the NDP. If you don't donate,

00:16:40.000 donation link is in the description below. It just says BC Conservative Donate. Click on that if you

00:16:44.440 live in BC. Donate $100 to them. You get 75% of it back on your taxes. You get to pay the provincial

00:16:50.740 government less taxes while also funding the BC Conservatives in crushing David Eby.

00:16:55.420 And then if you don't live in British Columbia, but you still like hearing me talk about provincial

00:17:01.620 politics, even if it's not a province you live in, you can donate to my legal fund, the Give,

00:17:06.080 Send, Go link in the description below. It really helps me and the National Telegraph out a lot.

00:17:11.240 We have a billionaire Chinese developer suing us for nothing. He's suing us for defamation. And in two and a

00:17:17.360 half years of this case going on, still hasn't been able to prove or even show any evidence that would

00:17:24.520 even suggest that we defamed him. It's just him throwing paperwork at us to try and punish people for

00:17:29.260 having even referenced something bad about him. We never even reported anything new about him. We just

00:17:34.440 referenced an old report about him because he happened to be relevant to something else that we

00:17:38.900 were investigating in an article. But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys. So donate to the BC

00:17:44.720 Conservatives here in BC. Donate to my legal fund if you can. If you want to sign up on my website for

00:17:49.620 updates on local political happenings, you can go to WyattClaypool.com in the description below

00:17:54.700 and sign up to that contact list. Have a great one, everyone.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - July 09, 2024

Poll show BC Conservatives on track to beat Eby's NDP

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