John Rustad's BC Conservative Party is on track to beat Premier David Eby's BC NDP in British Columbia's upcoming election, according to new polling numbers released by the Liaison Strategy poll. This is a huge victory for John Rustad and the BC Conservatives, who are now the main opposition to the BC NDP.
00:00:00.000We have some very exciting polling news coming out of British Columbia today showing that, yes, indeed, John Rustad's BC Conservative Party is on track to beat Premier David Eby's BC NDP.
00:00:12.780Remember that at the start of this year, the BC NDP were able to lead their closest opponent from anywhere from 18% to 28%.
00:00:22.440Yes, they were able to lead at the beginning of this year up to 28% above their closest competitor.
00:00:28.720But now, since BC United, formerly the BC Liberals, have completely collapsed under the lack of leadership of Kevin Falcon, John Rustad and the Conservatives have emerged as the main opposition to David Eby.
00:00:41.900And let's be clear, even though David Eby used to technically be the second and I think at one point the most popular Premier in the country, he actually isn't that popular.
00:00:52.180He had his honeymoon phase in 2022 and 2023, but as people started to notice that he's far more radical than John Horgan and he's completely out of touch with what middle-class BC residents want, his actual favorability numbers have fallen faster than any other Premier in the country.
00:01:10.520David Eby is deeply out of touch with what a middle-class BC voter wants, he's radical on drug issues, he has a terrible record on affordability, his SOGI agenda is deeply unpopular with BC parents.
00:01:25.160Across the board, on policy, people don't like the NDP.
00:01:28.300They're currently only ahead in most polls because of a lot of soft support.
00:01:33.600There are people who still haven't really clued into what this next provincial election is all about.
00:01:38.440They still think it's between the BC NDP and the BC Liberals before the name change.
00:01:43.780They don't realize that the BC Conservatives are a real viable vehicle in this election.
00:01:48.080Just take a look at federal polling in British Columbia.
00:01:52.120The federal Conservatives under Pierre Polyev, who are very close in ideology to the BC Conservatives, are near 50% in British Columbia.
00:02:01.700If anything, the BC Conservatives are actually probably a little bit more conservative than the federal Conservative Party.
00:02:06.920So these two parties should probably be polling fairly close.
00:02:10.400The only reason that the BC Conservatives are not polling up to where the federals are yet is just because name recognition hasn't caught up yet.
00:02:18.180People don't quite know who John Rustad is, but that can all be healed in time with good spending and just from people paying attention as the election gets closer.
00:02:28.460But this liaison strategy poll that just came out is really interesting, and I want to talk about the top-line numbers first and then get into the regionals.
00:02:35.940They're utterly abysmal. But before I get into that, I do want to say, if you guys live in British Columbia and you support the BC Conservative Party as you should,
00:02:45.260they're an actual good party and they're not crazy like David Eby, please consider donating to the BC Conservatives.
00:02:51.360They do not pay me to promote them. They do not pay me to get them donations.
00:02:55.440I live in Alberta, but I'm just basically telling you guys, if you want a change in government, you have to donate to them.
00:03:01.400If you donate $100, you get 75% of it back in a tax credit. The BC Conservative donation link is in the description of this video below.
00:03:10.100But without further ado, here is the liaison strategy top-line numbers.
00:03:14.860The BC NDP are at 40%, the Conservatives are at 38%, the Greens are at 10%, and BC United is at 9%,
00:03:22.540which is really funny because about two months ago, there was a scuffle between the BC Conservatives and United
00:03:28.600on who was going to be the main opposition to David Eby. Even back then, the United Party was like 10%
00:03:34.940behind the Conservatives, but now I think we can say that the BC Conservatives have successfully vanquished
00:03:41.340the United, and now they're moving on to smash the NDP. And more pessimistic viewers might be thinking,
00:03:47.280well, the NDP is still ahead. How could the NDP possibly be ahead? Again, it's a lot of soft support.
00:03:52.980It's a lot of voters who are merely, whenever a pollster calls them up,
00:03:55.900just telling them that they're voting for the party that they voted for last time.
00:03:59.780Most people tend to just default to what they've done previously. But as the election date looms
00:04:05.020closer, when people start taking the decisions of the election more seriously, they are probably
00:04:10.540going to start migrating towards the Conservatives. The fact that the Conservatives are in a statistical
00:04:14.920tie right now with the NDP, there's a three-point margin of error, so it is a statistical tie.
00:04:20.000This demonstrates that the BC Conservatives can easily win this election if even well before the
00:04:26.420red is dropped, they are tied with the NDP. Who's to say they can't get up to where the federal
00:04:31.940Conservatives are, 45%, 47%? It's very doable. As you see the trend line here in all of the polling
00:04:38.740that's been done in British Columbia, it has just been upward momentum across the board.
00:04:43.040Even from polling firms that are a little bit more pessimistic about the performance of the BC
00:04:49.060Conservatives, even they have had a steady rise in the BC Conservatives' polling. I think one of
00:04:55.000the pollsters showed that the BC Conservatives were down like 10 points on the NDP, but even that was
00:04:59.880an improvement over two and a half months ago when they showed the BC NDP leading by 14 points or 15
00:05:06.120points. Every pollster is showing that the BC Conservatives are doing well. And the regionals of this
00:05:11.720poll should be what are keeping people like David Eby up at night because it is not good for the NDP
00:05:17.580and it shows that they have no room to lose voters. So let's start off with the region actually that the
00:05:24.860BC NDP does the best. I think, you know, let's start off with the worst news for the BC Conservatives.
00:05:31.260So currently on Vancouver Island, the BC NDP are leading the Conservatives 43% to 23%. In fact,
00:05:39.560the Greens are actually in second place on Vancouver Island at 24%, which is actually good for the BC
00:05:44.820Conservatives because the Greens have the capacity of holding on to their two seats and denying those seats
00:05:50.400to the NDP. Right now, the polling would suggest that the Greens will only hold on to one seat, but with proper
00:05:56.300campaigning and concentration of resources, they can probably ward off the NDP in both of those seats. But in
00:06:03.400Metro Vancouver, so the BC Conservatives even went in third place, sorry, to finish up on Vancouver
00:06:08.560Island. The BC Conservatives, even in Vancouver Island with a third place showing of 23%, can still
00:06:14.380win a couple, like two to three seats on Vancouver Island. In the north of the island, in more rural
00:06:20.860areas, the BC Conservatives have a far stronger appeal than the NDP. The NDP are pretty much just at 43%
00:06:27.740because they do really well around Victoria. Outside of Victoria, it becomes a far more even neck and neck
00:06:34.940race between the NDP and the Conservatives depending on the riding. Okay, well now let's move on to Metro
00:06:41.460Vancouver. This is the very scary one for the NDP. So yes, the NDP are leading in Metro Vancouver, but
00:06:49.940they're only leading 42% to 39%. Again, when you remember that this poll has a margin of error of
00:06:56.8203%, that is within the margin of error. They are effectively tied in Metro Vancouver, an area that
00:07:04.340the NDP needs to absolutely clean up in. And then when we jump down to how the NDP are doing outside of
00:07:12.360Vancouver, they're absolutely getting smashed by the Conservatives 48% to 33%. So this is outside of
00:07:19.920Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island. The BC Conservatives are ahead 48% to 33%, which means
00:07:28.760that the Conservatives could effectively win every single riding outside of the Vancouver and Vancouver
00:07:37.240Island area. And they can still win ridings in those other two areas. That's a very bad position for
00:07:44.300the BC NDP to be in. The BC Conservatives, where they're strongest, are a place where the BC NDP
00:07:50.500can't even compete. But the areas where the NDP are strong, the BC Conservatives can compete. And if
00:07:56.160they just inch up a little bit more on Vancouver Island, and especially in Metro Vancouver in the Surrey
00:08:02.220area, they can clean up this entire election. Now, I want to jump over to a map now that I think just
00:08:08.180like, you know, shows you the geography, the layout of how the selection is going. I think everyone
00:08:13.340should actually go and follow Sharia Teest on X. I think he does a really good job of generating
00:08:19.800these seat projections and maps. So go follow real Albert, Albert, Albanian Pat. I don't know.
00:08:28.620Everyone always has weird handles on X. Sorry for muddling that a lot. But his current polling
00:08:32.780polling projections, seat projections, just based on this liaison strategy poll shows the NDP would
00:08:39.620win 51 seats over the Conservatives 41, and the Greens would get one seat. But that is a very close
00:08:46.880election, considering that if the BC Conservatives just inch up three or four more points in the polls,
00:08:52.480especially if they steal those supporters from the BC NDP, they can easily flip this result.
00:08:58.580So as we see, the NDP still has a little bit of support in these rural areas. I really doubt this
00:09:04.580is going to end up holding. The BC Conservatives are going to be able to keep pushing out a lot of
00:09:10.600rural voters that the BC NDP have just entirely left behind. So I don't think these rural seats are
00:09:15.960going to be holding for the BC NDP. But let's look in, and I'll try and zoom in as much as I can here.
00:09:21.420If you can see up in this top right corner, this Surrey area area is going to be a massive vote bank
00:09:29.000for the Conservatives. I've shown this in previous videos about demographic polling, about different
00:09:37.240ethnic groups. The BC Conservatives are actually very popular right now with Indian Canadians.
00:09:44.420Sorry, I had to do a bit of a jump cut there. I had a bit of a fuzzy screen because my internet was
00:09:49.000clicking out. It's just this location I'm in does not want to stay stable. But as I was saying, the BC
00:09:54.400Conservatives are actually doing very well with South Asian Canadians. And this Surrey area is very heavily
00:09:59.920South Asian. Right now, it shows that the Conservatives are only picking up one seat in the Surrey-BC area.
00:10:05.560But again, if the polling tightens up in the metro Vancouver area by one or two percent, I could easily
00:10:10.780see Surrey flipping. Even now, I think Surrey could flip because this polling is just based on generic
00:10:16.540projections based on what happened in the last election with the current polling taken into
00:10:22.180account. But when you actually look at South Asian polling, 51 percent of South Asian voters say they're
00:10:29.160going to vote for the BC Conservative Party. I think only 11 percent are going to be voting for the NDP,
00:10:34.460and some are also going to be voting for United. But I don't think a lot of United supporters in the
00:10:39.760South Asian community are going to hold when people realize if you want to protect your small
00:10:43.820business. There's tons of small business owners in the South Asian community. You've got to vote
00:10:48.760BC Conservative. So all of this is, yes, still showing an edge for the NDP, but the NDP shouldn't
00:10:55.300just have an edge. They should be smashing this election. They used to be up 18 points, as I've
00:10:59.940been saying. So if this thing tightens up even three or four percent, which will inevitably happen as
00:11:06.140more people know that the BC Conservatives are the real opposition to the NDP, as more people get to
00:11:11.320know John Rustad, and frankly, as more people see David Eby perform. David Eby is a terrible premier.
00:11:18.600He is a student union protester who somehow became the premier of the province. He's unelected. He just
00:11:24.740got acclaimed as the premier. It's pathetic. He, in a certain sense, comes off very young. And I know
00:11:31.140I'm saying this as somebody who looks 12 years old, although I'm 25. David Eby just comes off like a
00:11:39.48018-year-old punk kid compared to John Rustad, who very much is an adult. John Rustad seems like
00:11:45.400somebody that you can trust to manage serious portfolios to be able to run a province. David
00:11:50.880Eby looks like, frankly, what his previous job was, writing anti-police books and trying to show you how
00:11:57.920you can sue the police for petty technicalities in order to take money away from them. He's anti-cop.
00:12:03.640He is pro-drug. His affordability record is horrible. His SOGI record in education is horrible.
00:12:10.060David Eby is a terrible premier. And so the fact that this election is this close right now proves
00:12:16.940that David Eby can't win. It's like, I've seen this before, it's like whenever there's an incumbent
00:12:22.140president in the United States and somehow they don't have a strong advantage over an unknown
00:12:28.300challenger. I'm trying to find a good example of this, but there's been some times in, it's like,
00:12:35.440I guess, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Jimmy Carter had very weak polling. He was still ahead
00:12:39.580of Ronald Reagan for much of the race early on. But the fact that you're only a little bit ahead
00:12:44.380of your opponent who hasn't even been nominated yet is a big issue. The BC Conservatives only have
00:12:49.700four seats. And if they're this close with as little bandwidth as they have, as little spending as
00:12:54.920they have, imagine what's going to happen when the BC Conservatives actually have a lot of money.
00:12:59.500The BC NDP are still out fundraising them. But I think in the next two to three months,
00:13:03.320the BC Conservatives are going to pack away cash and be able to swamp the BC NDP in the fall.
00:13:08.740The BC NDP are relying on voters who they disrespect. The NDP's base that John Horgan could keep
00:13:14.960voting for the BC NDP was a lot of blue collar workers. David Eby doesn't look like he even likes to
00:13:21.260be around construction workers, like factory workers, city employees. He looks like someone
00:13:27.020who likes to be at cocktail parties. That's where John Rustad has a big advantage. He actually seems
00:13:31.680like he cares about blue collar workers because he really does. And David Eby seems like he cares
00:13:36.680about HR employees and people who are activists. That's going to be the main thing that's going to
00:13:42.300hurt the NDP is they are an activist party and people want a serious governing force, especially
00:13:48.080knowing that Pierre Polyev is probably going to be the next prime minister of Canada. Why would you
00:13:53.300want David Eby on one hand, who wants to keep the provincial carbon tax alongside a federal
00:13:58.900conservative prime minister who's going to get rid of the federal carbon tax, which would leave BC being
00:14:05.360one of the only two places in Canada next to Quebec, still paying a carbon tax. That's also a big issue
00:14:11.920with, I know this video is going on a bit, but it's astonishing. David Eby is having to rely on
00:14:16.400crossover voters that do not exist. A crossover voter, it's like split ticketing in the United
00:14:22.140States. I'm in the United States right now, so I'm thinking of presidential elections.
00:14:25.780Split ticketing is like if I was voting a Republican for president, I was voting my Democratic senator
00:14:30.980and my local congressional congressperson, I was voting Republican again. I'm not voting
00:14:35.920downline Republican. But the vast majority of voters in any jurisdiction tend to vote downline the
00:14:42.220same way. If you like a conservative provincially, you like a conservative federally, you like a
00:14:47.160conservative municipally, you know, vice versa between all of them. You're not going to vote
00:14:51.480for the big spending socialist pro-drug, pro-carbon tax NDP MLA. At the same time that federally,
00:15:00.400you're going to be voting for a conservative who wants to scrap the carbon tax. And when 50% of the
00:15:05.800province right now around that is planning on voting federal conservative, David Eby is in a very awkward
00:15:11.020position where he's going to have to rely on some federal conservative voters to vote for him.
00:15:16.020And I don't think that's actually going to happen. Yes, there's 50% of people who aren't voting federal
00:15:21.440conservative, but there are many liberal federal liberals who vote united, who vote green. There's
00:15:27.540many federal NDPs who vote provincially green. And so they're actually, he can't dominate that entire
00:15:33.480other non-conservative half. David Eby needs crossover voters, crossover voters who are entirely
00:15:39.280opposed to his agenda. Does not matter how much the man pretends to moderate, he cannot moderate
00:15:44.280enough. Because as much as he thinks that he can put out some affordable housing program, or he can
00:15:49.380make noises about trying to reduce middle class taxes, or do something to try and reduce the intensity
00:15:55.560of the decriminalization of drugs program, he's not reversing any of these issues. That's the problem.
00:16:01.540He is too much of a true believer in socialist policy, in radical postmodern Marxist policy that
00:16:10.260he can't pull out of this tailspin. He would rather lose an election as a purist left winger than actually
00:16:18.080win it. Because at heart, he is a social activist who lucked into becoming the premier of Canada's,
00:16:24.600I think, third biggest province? Yes, third. I know Canadian geography well. But anyways,
00:16:30.300that should be it for me today, guys. Again, if you live in British Columbia, you can't expect
00:16:34.740other people to donate to the BC Conservatives so they can beat the NDP. If you don't donate,
00:16:40.000donation link is in the description below. It just says BC Conservative Donate. Click on that if you
00:16:44.440live in BC. Donate $100 to them. You get 75% of it back on your taxes. You get to pay the provincial
00:16:50.740government less taxes while also funding the BC Conservatives in crushing David Eby.
00:16:55.420And then if you don't live in British Columbia, but you still like hearing me talk about provincial
00:17:01.620politics, even if it's not a province you live in, you can donate to my legal fund, the Give,
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00:17:11.240We have a billionaire Chinese developer suing us for nothing. He's suing us for defamation. And in two and a
00:17:17.360half years of this case going on, still hasn't been able to prove or even show any evidence that would
00:17:24.520even suggest that we defamed him. It's just him throwing paperwork at us to try and punish people for
00:17:29.260having even referenced something bad about him. We never even reported anything new about him. We just
00:17:34.440referenced an old report about him because he happened to be relevant to something else that we
00:17:38.900were investigating in an article. But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys. So donate to the BC
00:17:44.720Conservatives here in BC. Donate to my legal fund if you can. If you want to sign up on my website for
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