The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - July 12, 2024


Poll show Eby's BC NDP are falling apart as BC Conservatives rise

Topics
BC NDP government & Eby BC Conservative donations
Hosted by
Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
David Eby John Rustad Kevin Falcon Bonnie Henry Real Albanian Pat Chris Hardwick Olivia Chow
Justin Trudeau thinks Justin Trudeau is doing a bad job Trudeau⧸Eby's soft-on-crime policy led to a woman's death

Episode Stats


Length

18 minutes

Words per minute

177.7

Word count

3,334

Sentence count

164

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Toxicity

16

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The BC Conservatives are tied with the BC NDP in the latest Main Street Research poll, which is bad news for David Eby and the BCNDP. In this episode, I break down the numbers behind the tie and explain why it could be a big deal.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Politics is a game all about momentum, and British Columbia Premier David Eby and his BCNDP are showing us all how to lose that game.
00:00:10.020 At the start of this year, 2024, the BCNDP could be pulling above their next closest opponent by anywhere from 18% to 28%.
00:00:21.820 It was going to be an absolute slaughter for the BCNDP come the fall election.
00:00:27.540 But David Eby and his cabinet were full of ego and hubris, and they didn't think they could possibly lose. 0.99
00:00:34.400 So then they proceeded to do and say the stupidest possible things that they could think of. 0.93
00:00:40.520 And now, in the new Main Street Research poll, they're tied with John Rustad's BC Conservatives, and that is just the mildest of the bad news. 0.99
00:00:49.480 When you actually dig down to this poll a little bit further, it gets much, much worse.
00:00:54.820 There is a reason why, as the BC Conservatives have been pointing out, that NDP cabinet ministers have just been resigning and saying they're not running again.
00:01:03.560 And that's not even including other members of the BCNDP caucus.
00:01:07.420 And you might be thinking to yourself, well, that's weird because even in this poll, a lot of these people might be able to retain their seats.
00:01:13.280 They're tied with the Conservatives.
00:01:14.460 They're not behind or anything.
00:01:15.780 And other polls, like one I talked about a couple of days ago, they are ahead by two points.
00:01:20.060 Okay, sure, the problem with that is unless you know the background of British Columbia politics, these poll results are doomsday for the NDP because the BC Conservatives didn't exist effectively a year ago.
00:01:34.680 It was only two MLAs that were part of the BC Conservative caucus.
00:01:38.900 John Rustad had just taken the reins of a party that only got 2% in the last election a few months before.
00:01:45.500 And now, seeing that they're tied with the BC NDP probably shows that it's much worse than most people think because a lot of people, not like you and I, don't follow politics very closely.
00:01:57.860 And so as more people start paying attention to the provincial election coming up in October, a lot more people are going to be following the trend that we've already seen taking place over this last year and shifting towards the BC Conservatives.
00:02:11.660 A lot of people probably still think this next election is between the BC Liberals and the BC NDP.
00:02:17.440 Again, most people follow sports, they follow entertainment, they are psychopaths like you and I who really like talking about politics all the time.
00:02:24.980 But before I get into some of the underlying numbers of this poll, I will urge you, if you live in British Columbia, in the description of this video and the top pinned comment, there is a donation link to donate to the BC Conservatives.
00:02:38.760 Please donate to them because if you don't put a down payment on the BC Conservatives victory, well, we can't be shocked that even if nobody likes the NDP, they just overwhelm the Conservatives with a lot more money for advertising, volunteers, leafleting and all that.
00:02:53.440 So if you live in British Columbia, if you don't donate, you can't expect anyone else to donate, you get 75% back on a tax credit if you donate $100.
00:03:02.540 And I would still encourage you to spend more than that.
00:03:05.360 I, when I was 20 years old in the 2020 leadership election, had donated like $1,500 to one of the candidates as somebody who didn't have a lot of money because I spend money on things I believe in.
00:03:15.720 But anyways, here is the poll results.
00:03:18.720 So let's just start at the top line results and go through the decided, undecided voters and all voters.
00:03:24.540 We'll start with all voters and this mixes in people who are maybe less likely to vote and a lot of people who are still undecided.
00:03:31.480 And this shows that the BC Conservatives are at 33%, the NDP is at 33%, the Greens are at 10%, the United Party is embarrassingly at 8%, and 2% of people are also saying they're looking for another party.
00:03:44.120 Those 2% are probably Christian Heritage Party voters, but even they, I would assume, would probably shift towards the BC Conservatives.
00:03:51.960 People who don't realize this, who don't live in British Columbia and don't follow politics very closely, because the Conservatives weren't really a party as of a couple years ago,
00:04:00.580 Christian Heritage could actually punch as high as 10% to 20% in some rural ridings, simply because there really wasn't a clear Conservative alternative.
00:04:09.240 So why not pick your dream party, which the CHP is for a lot of, you know, more, like, reform-minded, like, Baptist, Protestant Christians.
00:04:20.460 A lot of the Calvinists vote for the CHP.
00:04:23.260 But now let's move on to decided and undecided voters with many of the less likely to vote people filtered out.
00:04:30.180 It's 35 Conservative, 35 NDP, 11 Green, and 10 United.
00:04:34.880 Now, when we go to just-decided voters, people who know who they're going to vote for and are unlikely to change, although I think that's not quite right.
00:04:43.340 I think a lot of NDP voters, as more news comes out showing how radical the NDP has become under EV, they will shift.
00:04:50.660 The Bonnie Henry story of her proposing selling drugs in retail convenience stores is going to get a lot of people to pay attention to the sort of people who are currently staffing the BC NDP government.
00:05:01.360 They can't pretend, well, we disagree with Bonnie Henry on this one, because they've never disagreed with her before, and they're probably only saying that this proposal is too radical now, because they know it's an election issue if they say that they support it.
00:05:14.380 If they win, 100%, they're going to come back and say, actually, let's reconsider this proposal to sell safe supply drugs in a local 7-11.
00:05:23.060 But this decided-only voter poll has the BC Conservative at 37, NDP 37, Greens at 12, that's great to see, and United at 10.
00:05:33.480 And although a lot of Conservative voters out there are going to think, well, we need to merge with United or the NDP might still get it,
00:05:40.740 I can guarantee you, based on the underlying federal polling for who people in different parties are going to vote for, United is actually keeping votes away from the NDP more than it's keeping votes away from the BC Conservatives.
00:05:54.160 Because United is full of a lot of federal Liberals and some federal NDP, and that is keeping votes out of Metro Vancouver from the hands of David Eby.
00:06:03.140 So I actually fully encourage Kevin Falcon to stick around at this point.
00:06:07.660 It's going to be great seeing the transition between NDP voters mocking the BC Conservatives and United,
00:06:14.160 and that they can't win unless they come together and they're, like, mocking the Conservatives because United might stop the Conservatives from winning,
00:06:20.620 to now whining that United's stopping them from being able to win.
00:06:23.900 But after those surface-level numbers, let's quickly jump down to, oh, before we jump down to the would-you-vote, would-you-not-vote statistics,
00:06:34.360 I just wanted to show this post from Sheree Attiste on X.
00:06:39.600 So you guys should actually go follow him on X.
00:06:42.480 You can see his handle up there, Real Albanian Pat.
00:06:45.420 He does good seat projections, and he was actually one of the few people who was right that the Conservatives were going to win in Toronto-St. Paul
00:06:52.120 and was pretty much exactly on the outcomes in that riding.
00:06:56.020 And he shows, based on this poll and his model, that the Conservatives, even on this poll where the NDP and the Conservatives are tied,
00:07:02.960 the Conservatives would get 47 seats, NDP 45, Greens 1, which would be a one-seat majority for the BC Conservatives.
00:07:11.860 Obviously, I think they need way more than that. 0.95
00:07:13.760 I want them to have a 10-, 20-seat majority so they can just reverse every stupid decision inside the NDP government 0.97
00:07:21.040 and not have to worry if, you know, someone in the BC Conservatives tragically passes away and now the entire thing is a toss-up again. 0.76
00:07:27.140 But now I want to go to Main Street Research is polling on each of the main four parties and would people consider voting for them
00:07:35.720 or would they not consider voting for them?
00:07:38.220 Because this is where everything becomes a complete horror show for the BC NDP
00:07:43.140 and where you will understand why I'm saying they're dead in the water.
00:07:47.300 This is all where the momentum is.
00:07:49.680 Do you have ability to grow or do you not have ability to grow?
00:07:52.980 So let's start from least relevant to most relevant.
00:07:56.980 And the least relevant, thanks to Mr. Kevin Falcon and his cunning political instincts,
00:08:03.900 he now has the party that the least amount of British Columbians will ever consider voting for.
00:08:09.960 So 65% of people say that they will not consider voting for BC United.
00:08:15.460 Only 23% say they will vote for them or they are open to voting for them.
00:08:20.180 Obviously, when you look at all voters, only 8% of people wanted to vote for them here and in the decided there was 10.
00:08:28.140 So they are way below their numbers for people who are actually considering voting for them and following through within the polls.
00:08:35.520 But now let's jump over to the Greens because this should be utterly terrifying for the BC NDP.
00:08:41.520 Because obviously, there is not a lot of crossover between British Columbia Green voters and the BC Conservatives.
00:08:49.080 There might be some.
00:08:49.980 There are some voters I, you know, I'm not trying to insult anyone.
00:08:52.880 I describe as granola voters.
00:08:54.600 They tend to be very freedom-minded, more naturalistic people.
00:08:57.980 They tend to not like big pharma.
00:08:59.880 They don't like big government.
00:09:01.060 But they will still vote for the Greens based on some more smaller issues around natural medicines and around, you know, just general conservation type efforts.
00:09:12.460 But the BC Greens have 56% of people saying that they will consider voting for them, 26% of people saying that they definitely won't, and 19% saying that they don't know whether they'd vote for them or not.
00:09:23.640 That's crazy because you can assume that that 56% is mostly coming from the center left to the far left.
00:09:30.860 And so the BC NDP being a party that tracks actually pretty closely with the Greens, they might lose a lot of votes for them, especially if David Eby and his government keeps embarrassing themselves.
00:09:41.780 And again, as the Conservatives keep pointing out, having cabinet ministers jumping ship is a bad look.
00:09:47.040 And if people think that David Eby is going down in flames, because he is, a lot of people might start jumping over to the Greens because it's more of their idealist party.
00:09:55.860 People tend to vote in a more idealist fashion when they think the more pragmatic pick can't even win, so why not vote for my dream team party?
00:10:03.740 That's, again, when there's no Conservative option and nobody likes the BC Liberals and they likely weren't going to win the 2020 election, a lot more people voted for the Christian Heritage Party.
00:10:13.360 So now let's jump over to the BC Conservatives, because this is great news for John Rustad and the Conservatives.
00:10:20.960 Obviously, it's a more polarizing party because a lot more people know about them and the mainstream media and the NDP opening fire on them all the time means that a lot of people are either going to like them or not like them.
00:10:31.980 But good news, the BC Conservatives have 51% of British Columbians saying they are open to voting for them.
00:10:38.500 Only 40% saying they are not considering voting for the BC Conservatives, but there's still 8% who don't know.
00:10:45.500 And even if that just split right down the middle, there's about 50, there's 55% of BC residents who would consider voting for the BC Conservative Party, which tracks pretty closely with where the federal Conservatives and pure poly of are at.
00:10:58.900 In the new, I actually should go look this up in a second here, but the BC, the federal Conservatives in British Columbia are very close to, if not a little bit above 56% or 50%.
00:11:10.720 And so that tracks closely to where the BC Conservatives are currently at with having 51% of people minus the 8% who don't know if they consider they're not willing to consider voting for them in this provincial election.
00:11:24.300 And it would be hard for me to believe that anyone outside of very, very soft red Tories who are voting federal Conservative wouldn't then also cast a ballot for John Rustad and the BC Conservatives.
00:11:35.960 You know, how many people are really going to vote poly of federally, but then say, well, I might throw a vote behind Kevin Falcon or might throw a vote behind David Eby, the two men who either were supporting the carbon tax up until five seconds ago in the case of Falcon, or they still support the provincial carbon tax as David Eby does.
00:11:54.800 But now we are on our main course, but now we are on our main course, or it's kind of a bit of a dessert.
00:11:59.380 It's a bit of a main course and a dessert in one.
00:12:01.960 Here is the BC NDP numbers for whether or not people will consider voting for them.
00:12:07.820 Only 44% of people would consider voting for the British Columbia New Democratic Party with 54% saying no, a straight no, and only 2% saying they don't know.
00:12:21.960 Let's just give those two to David Eby just to play devil's advocate.
00:12:27.220 And when it comes to the BC NDP, the devil's advocate part, the devil part of the advocate is very strongly used that really, but it's a basic, this is a horrible number.
00:12:39.260 At tops, they have 46% of people who will consider voting for them.
00:12:43.420 And so they're already close to maxing it out when it comes to the, when it comes to voters.
00:12:48.740 This is based on all voters.
00:12:50.680 And so when you go to all voters here, the NDP is 33%.
00:12:53.680 So max, they can maybe grow, let's just use the 44. 0.95
00:12:57.980 They can maybe grow another 11%, where the conservatives going from 33 to 51 can grow another, doing the math because I'm stupid, 18%. 0.90
00:13:09.880 That's great for the BC conservatives. 0.75
00:13:12.660 And so they have the voter enthusiasm.
00:13:14.880 They have momentum.
00:13:16.040 They have room to grow.
00:13:17.560 And their people actually know what they're voting for.
00:13:20.720 The BC NDP voters are voting for a government that's performed horribly.
00:13:25.900 They're, especially their healthcare performance is horrific.
00:13:29.100 The wait times in British Columbia are now 27.7 weeks.
00:13:32.660 They are now having people go down to, I believe, Washington state in order to get cancer chemo treatment because it's just can't be done in BC because of how horribly they've managed the healthcare system.
00:13:44.040 He's fired unvaccinated doctors.
00:13:45.780 He won't stop the decriminalization craziness of hard drugs.
00:13:49.420 He backs safe supply fully.
00:13:51.360 They won't, it's all over the place.
00:13:53.540 Their agenda has made BC worse off.
00:13:56.700 So G123 is utterly hollowing out the education that BC children are getting.
00:14:01.620 These people need to go.
00:14:03.760 They're just a bunch of crazy student activists who somehow got into government. 0.94
00:14:09.100 David Eby would be far more comfortable at a Hamas occupation of a college campus than he is in his own premier's office because he is a protester who somehow got acclaimed and is now occupying the premier's office with a strong emphasis on the word occupy.
00:14:26.460 He is simply occupying the premier's office, not trying to actually make life better for anyone, but just trying to implement his activist agenda in the most purest way possible because he doesn't care if it hurts people.
00:14:39.880 He is a true believer in the Marxist values that he follows.
00:14:43.340 So he wants to, like, he wants to establish that agenda as fully as humanly possible.
00:14:50.260 It doesn't matter if deaths are going up because of decriminalization safe supply.
00:14:53.900 It doesn't matter because he believes in the utopian vision that if we just push big government and these crazy anti-values policies hard enough that we will break through to the other side into the sunlight and utopia. 0.98
00:15:07.640 He is an absolute, like, crazy person. 0.99
00:15:11.580 He needs to be removed. 0.98
00:15:12.900 And that's why, at the start of this video and now, I'm going to urge you, if you live in British Columbia, you have to donate to the BC Conservatives.
00:15:21.580 If you have five bucks lying around just for the solidarity of the matter, give them five or ten dollars.
00:15:27.360 Give them a hundred dollars.
00:15:28.340 You get 75% back in a tax credit up to a hundred bucks.
00:15:31.520 Give them five hundred dollars if you can.
00:15:33.000 It's a down payment on the tax cuts that you're going to get from the BC Conservatives.
00:15:38.060 It's the best investment you could possibly make to donate to the Conservatives and then actually see your province turn into somewhere you would like to live again.
00:15:46.440 Vancouver is hollowed out.
00:15:48.060 Victoria is hollowed out.
00:15:49.080 There's so many towns and cities in British Columbia.
00:15:51.900 Lovely cities.
00:15:53.220 Beautiful.
00:15:54.120 Places that you would want to ideally live.
00:15:56.760 But bad government policy has made them horrible.
00:15:59.580 It's like San Francisco in the U.S.
00:16:01.200 It's like Portland.
00:16:02.620 It's like a lot of other.
00:16:04.000 It's like the way that what like Olivia Chow is turning Toronto into. 1.00
00:16:09.800 All this crap needs to be reversed. 0.79
00:16:12.580 But anyways, that should be it for me today, guys. 0.94
00:16:15.260 Again, BC Conservative donation link is in the description of this video below.
00:16:19.520 And you can also donate if you don't live in BC to my Give, Send, Go, my legal fund in the description below.
00:16:25.980 I'm being sued by a Chinese billionaire for literally nothing.
00:16:29.860 And he's suing us for defamation.
00:16:31.160 And in over two and a half years, he still hasn't even presented a single shred of evidence to show that we defamed him.
00:16:37.640 In fact, the guest writer who wrote an article where he was mentioned even just used a Globe and Mail investigation of him when he was briefly mentioned.
00:16:45.920 We basically reported nothing new about him, but he's mad that we even mentioned something that he didn't like.
00:16:52.140 But he was too much of a coward, at least in my opinion, to sue the Globe and Mail.
00:16:55.760 So he's suing us a year and a half after that Globe and Mail article came out for merely referencing it in a very mild manner.
00:17:02.900 Anyways, and then also, if you are in British Columbia or anywhere else in Canada, you can sign up on my website, WyattClaypool.com, onto my organizing list.
00:17:14.200 I'm trying to get more people involved in politics, point out great nomination campaigns in your guys' local areas, showing different ways you can get involved as actual effective volunteers, and jump onto different movements.
00:17:26.100 So if you guys want any specific, you know, political advice, ways you can get involved, ways you can volunteer, sign up on my website, WyattClaypool.com, in the description below.
00:17:37.240 It gives me your email, phone number if you want, and address, so then I can target specific information towards you.
00:17:43.500 I'm not giving my data to anybody else, but allows me to find, like, oh, there's a great race going on in Victoria.
00:17:50.580 There's a great race going on in London, Ontario, and I can find everyone in that area and just send you a quick recommendation for people you might want to check out, campaigns you might be able to volunteer on or help out,
00:18:02.140 and different ways where we can make the country, you know, actually just recover some freedom in Canada, reduce taxes, make the government smaller, all that good stuff.
00:18:12.000 Anyways, see you guys all later.
00:18:14.100 I'll be back with another video soon.
00:18:15.720 I'll be back with another video.