Poll shows Carney is vulnerable ahead of trade deal or disaster (CPC 3% behind Liberals)
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Summary
Today is the self-imposed deadline for a trade deal between Canada and the United States to be signed, but I don't think it's going to happen. In this episode, I talk about why I think a deal isn't going to be struck today, and what will happen if it is.
Transcript
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Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Today is July 21st, the self-imposed deadline by Prime Minister
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Mark Carney on when he was going to try and get a trade deal signed with the United States.
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I really don't think we are actually going to see a trade deal today. I guess it could always
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happen, but usually when something that major is going to be announced, you hear from some
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legacy media outlet that it's likely to come today because obviously the media wants clicks on
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their articles. So leaking the fact that there's a rumor that the deal is going to be signed today
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would be something that they would be publishing. Now, I think the real trade deadline is going to
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be the one that President Donald Trump set out, which is August 1st, when he plans to put a 35%
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tariff on Canada, unless we make some major concessions in order to avoid that. I don't
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think that Mark Carney is going to be willing to modify or get rid of the supply management system.
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So while I also don't think we are going to end up with a 35% tariff on our goods going into the
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United States, I don't think we are going to have zero tariff with the United States either.
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And that's why I want to talk about the polling today. Carney is actually not really in the position
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to be screwing up this bad this early into his prime ministership. People can say he seems like he's
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acting tough. He's, you know, saying that he will retaliate against the United States if they impose
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tariffs on us, that he's not going to get rid of the supply management system in order to please
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Donald Trump. Like he hasn't exactly vocalized that particular view, but he's been unwilling to
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budge on it. And in, I guess, the more inside the liberal base, people are going to see that as him
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being tough. Yeah, you can assume that he's going to get some sort of juice off of the fact that he's
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going up against Trump and people in Canada are going to like that. In the medium term, when we have
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a tariff on us, you're going to have a lot of Canadians who are going to be upset with him. And then they
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are going to want him to sign a new deal. And the Liberal Party and Carney are going to become more
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unpopular because of that, because of the economic consequences catching up to people. They'll eventually
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say, why did Carney do this to us, even if they may have actually been supporting him being obstinate leading
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up to this point? And no, I'm not supporting the United States tariffing Canada. It's just the reality
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that they're tariffing us unless we make a bunch of concessions. Concessions, we probably should make
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for the consumer in Canada anyways, because the consumer is not helped by supply management. So if
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we get rid of it immediately, Canadians' cost of living will go down. And then also, we will actually
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have more competition in the agricultural sector across the country. Alberta has 12% of the population
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in Canada, but it was only allowed to provide 7% of dairy and chicken in the country. We only get 7%
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of the quota in a province of 12% of the population. It's a stupid system. It should go away. But now,
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let's look at some of the polling, because again, it shows that right now, Carney's kind of on the edge.
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If he starts screwing up really bad, you could have him go from very popular to very unpopular
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quite quickly, because actually compared to Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau a couple months into their
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prime ministerships, he's actually not nearly as popular as those two. Those two had approvals in
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the mid-60s when they first entered office. I think Trudeau actually had an approval of like 72%
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shortly after entering office in 2015. Naturally, there's that honeymoon period. People want to think
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nice things about the new guy, but Carney has only ever really had an approval rating of like 56%.
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His disapproval rating isn't that high, because I think there's a lot of undecided people who are
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giving him a chance, but he doesn't have a lot of room to screw up until he's just another liberal
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prime minister that nobody likes. So first, let's look at direction of the country and world.
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Really, what I want to look at is the January polling up until now. Naturally, direction of the
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country. A lot of people were not rating it very well. 19% at one point in December, 23% in January,
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we're saying that the country is going in the right direction, and now it's 36%. But you will notice that
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that is down from the 40% the previous week, and at one point it was also 38%. So I think it probably,
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if we don't get a trade deal signed, is going to settle out either very low 30s, or it's going to fall
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below 30 in which we're kind of back in a situation where this feels like when Justin Trudeau is prime
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minister again. But now let's jump down to some other polling about Mark Carney's approval, as well
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as the actual polling between the parties. So right now, Mark Carney's approval rating is actually doing
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quite well. Abacus puts him a little bit lower than many of the other pollsters. He has a net
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favorability of 21% right now, with 49% approving and 28% disapproving. But again, that's not exactly
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the greatest rating ever considering this is his honeymoon polling. If you look at Stephen Harper,
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if you look at Justin Trudeau in Abacus data ratings, this is about how popular Trudeau was during COVID.
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At the start where people were very reliant on the government, this is how popular he was at that
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time. When he first entered office, he was in the 60s. And this demonstrates a lot of people just
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don't really know what to think about Carney right now. So even now, his approval rating is not even
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above 50%. And again, trade deal doesn't get signed. What happens if he starts dropping into the low 40s
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and his disapproval rating is now in the mid 30s? Again, we're kind of just in a Paul Martin situation
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where it's the guy who took over for the last guy and he isn't exactly lightning in the bottle like
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they promised. Okay, let's get down to a different result. Let's go to actually Pierre Polyev,
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who by the way, despite the sustained media attacks on him recently, is actually not doing that bad.
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A net favorability of negative four is not that bad for a conservative. When you have the media against
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you, when the general kind of culture of Canada is that conservatives are very American, and for some
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reason we hate Americans, negative four is perfectly fine. If you looked at Aaron O'Toole's
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polling, if you looked at Andrew Scheer's polling, it was more like negative 12. It was like negative
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eight, negative 15. Negative four is fine. 38% approval, 42% disapproval. And again, I'm going
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to keep repeating it. If Carney can't sign a deal, or we end up with like 15% tariff, and people are
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like, didn't you promise you were going to solve this issue? You could see a lot of the stuff reversing
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people remembering, hey, this is why I actually liked Polyev at one point, because he was going to fix
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these things. And then Carney's is going to kind of reverse with him. His disapproval is going to
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spike, approval falling, and then Pierre Polyev is going to benefit from a lot of that reversal. A lot
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of people who are saying, give the liberals a chance, end up swinging back over and say, yeah, never mind,
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bring the conservatives in, please. So now going down a little bit further here, I want to show you
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the polling between the conservatives and the liberals. It's actually not going too bad for
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the liberal for the conservatives right now. Obviously, they are behind. We are in a honeymoon
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period for the liberal party. But this is not exactly what most parties experience after winning
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reelection. And this isn't a cork of abacus data where they tend to be always really tight between the
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liberals and conservatives. You can see back in the day, back last year, the conservatives
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were absolutely clobbering the liberals when Justin Trudeau was the leader. And typically in abacus
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polling, after the liberals won reelection in 2021, after the liberals won reelection in 2019,
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in 2015, they were soaring right after the election. Because it actually is a phenomenon that after the
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party in power wins reelection, or they first get elected, a lot of people who actually voted the other
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way start saying that they like these guys in. Part of it's because you want to pretend you were on the
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winning team. And also part of it is saying, well, you know, they won fair and square. So if an election
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happened right the second, I would say vote for the guys who just won, because they deserve to have
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their time in office. That's not happening for the liberals right now. It's actually very tight with
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the liberals only leading the conservatives 43% to 40, which is effectively in the margin of error.
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The margin of error on a poll like this is going to be two and a half percent. And the 40 and 43 are
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probably subject to being rounded up and down. And so again, if Mark Carney, I'm going to keep repeating
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it, does not sign a trade deal, he is not going to be doing very hot in the polls quite soon. I know
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people can point to Nanos, they can point to other pollsters where the liberals are doing far better.
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But I just take those with a grain of salt. When I see a poll rollout that says the liberals are
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currently leading by 13 points. No, I just really don't see it. Nanos is one of these ones. Angus
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Reid are one of those pollsters that during the election, we're showing the liberals up like seven,
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eight points, six, seven points before the election. And then it ended up being like a point and a half.
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The liberals won the popular vote by. And so, yeah, I don't really see that as being accurate
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when a pollster that previously showed that they were going to win by six points, which would be a
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big majority for the liberals, are now showing they're going to be leading by 13 points.
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I think it's just response bias that are happening with those pollsters. Abacus showed like a slight
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liberal lead before election day in their normal poll. And then they ended up doing a little bit better
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than Abacus said. But that was far closer than what a lot of the other pollsters were showing,
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which was going to be a blowout for the liberals of a win of six to nine points. So I tend to trust
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the ones that were more coherent, I guess, when it came to the difference between the polling and the
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actual election result. But anyways, that should be it for this video, guys. I just want to do a short
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one of just kind of setting up the table for what could happen, for what things currently look like
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in a situation where it doesn't look like Mark Carney is going to be getting a good trade deal.
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He wasn't doing that good before we weren't getting a trade deal. Let's see how things are
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going to evolve after. Of course, if you guys like this video, make sure to leave a like on it,
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subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a subscriber, and leave a comment on what you
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think is going to happen with the trade deal and Mark Carney's approval. See you guys later.