The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Poll shows Carney is vulnerable ahead of trade deal or disaster (CPC 3% behind Liberals)

00:00:00.040 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Today is July 21st, the self-imposed deadline by Prime Minister

00:00:08.780 Mark Carney on when he was going to try and get a trade deal signed with the United States.

00:00:15.320 I really don't think we are actually going to see a trade deal today. I guess it could always

00:00:20.020 happen, but usually when something that major is going to be announced, you hear from some

00:00:25.300 legacy media outlet that it's likely to come today because obviously the media wants clicks on

00:00:30.780 their articles. So leaking the fact that there's a rumor that the deal is going to be signed today

00:00:35.660 would be something that they would be publishing. Now, I think the real trade deadline is going to

00:00:41.900 be the one that President Donald Trump set out, which is August 1st, when he plans to put a 35%

00:00:47.460 tariff on Canada, unless we make some major concessions in order to avoid that. I don't

00:00:53.420 think that Mark Carney is going to be willing to modify or get rid of the supply management system.

00:00:58.900 So while I also don't think we are going to end up with a 35% tariff on our goods going into the

00:01:04.320 United States, I don't think we are going to have zero tariff with the United States either.

00:01:09.620 And that's why I want to talk about the polling today. Carney is actually not really in the position

00:01:14.780 to be screwing up this bad this early into his prime ministership. People can say he seems like he's

00:01:20.700 acting tough. He's, you know, saying that he will retaliate against the United States if they impose

00:01:25.440 tariffs on us, that he's not going to get rid of the supply management system in order to please

00:01:30.500 Donald Trump. Like he hasn't exactly vocalized that particular view, but he's been unwilling to

00:01:36.380 budge on it. And in, I guess, the more inside the liberal base, people are going to see that as him

00:01:42.860 being tough. Yeah, you can assume that he's going to get some sort of juice off of the fact that he's

00:01:49.820 going up against Trump and people in Canada are going to like that. In the medium term, when we have

00:01:54.920 a tariff on us, you're going to have a lot of Canadians who are going to be upset with him. And then they

00:01:59.180 are going to want him to sign a new deal. And the Liberal Party and Carney are going to become more

00:02:03.880 unpopular because of that, because of the economic consequences catching up to people. They'll eventually

00:02:09.720 say, why did Carney do this to us, even if they may have actually been supporting him being obstinate leading

00:02:15.100 up to this point? And no, I'm not supporting the United States tariffing Canada. It's just the reality

00:02:20.480 that they're tariffing us unless we make a bunch of concessions. Concessions, we probably should make

00:02:25.560 for the consumer in Canada anyways, because the consumer is not helped by supply management. So if

00:02:32.160 we get rid of it immediately, Canadians' cost of living will go down. And then also, we will actually

00:02:38.300 have more competition in the agricultural sector across the country. Alberta has 12% of the population

00:02:45.820 in Canada, but it was only allowed to provide 7% of dairy and chicken in the country. We only get 7%

00:02:53.540 of the quota in a province of 12% of the population. It's a stupid system. It should go away. But now, 1.00

00:03:00.540 let's look at some of the polling, because again, it shows that right now, Carney's kind of on the edge.

00:03:05.720 If he starts screwing up really bad, you could have him go from very popular to very unpopular

00:03:11.520 quite quickly, because actually compared to Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau a couple months into their

00:03:18.060 prime ministerships, he's actually not nearly as popular as those two. Those two had approvals in

00:03:23.520 the mid-60s when they first entered office. I think Trudeau actually had an approval of like 72%

00:03:28.420 shortly after entering office in 2015. Naturally, there's that honeymoon period. People want to think

00:03:34.480 nice things about the new guy, but Carney has only ever really had an approval rating of like 56%.

00:03:40.780 His disapproval rating isn't that high, because I think there's a lot of undecided people who are

00:03:45.240 giving him a chance, but he doesn't have a lot of room to screw up until he's just another liberal

00:03:50.000 prime minister that nobody likes. So first, let's look at direction of the country and world.

00:03:56.340 Really, what I want to look at is the January polling up until now. Naturally, direction of the

00:04:02.940 country. A lot of people were not rating it very well. 19% at one point in December, 23% in January,

00:04:11.240 we're saying that the country is going in the right direction, and now it's 36%. But you will notice that

00:04:17.840 that is down from the 40% the previous week, and at one point it was also 38%. So I think it probably,

00:04:25.160 if we don't get a trade deal signed, is going to settle out either very low 30s, or it's going to fall

00:04:31.020 below 30 in which we're kind of back in a situation where this feels like when Justin Trudeau is prime

00:04:36.320 minister again. But now let's jump down to some other polling about Mark Carney's approval, as well

00:04:45.560 as the actual polling between the parties. So right now, Mark Carney's approval rating is actually doing

00:04:50.860 quite well. Abacus puts him a little bit lower than many of the other pollsters. He has a net

00:04:55.920 favorability of 21% right now, with 49% approving and 28% disapproving. But again, that's not exactly

00:05:04.420 the greatest rating ever considering this is his honeymoon polling. If you look at Stephen Harper,

00:05:10.020 if you look at Justin Trudeau in Abacus data ratings, this is about how popular Trudeau was during COVID.

00:05:16.520 At the start where people were very reliant on the government, this is how popular he was at that

00:05:21.040 time. When he first entered office, he was in the 60s. And this demonstrates a lot of people just

00:05:26.080 don't really know what to think about Carney right now. So even now, his approval rating is not even

00:05:31.660 above 50%. And again, trade deal doesn't get signed. What happens if he starts dropping into the low 40s

00:05:38.720 and his disapproval rating is now in the mid 30s? Again, we're kind of just in a Paul Martin situation

00:05:44.880 where it's the guy who took over for the last guy and he isn't exactly lightning in the bottle like

00:05:49.160 they promised. Okay, let's get down to a different result. Let's go to actually Pierre Polyev,

00:05:56.820 who by the way, despite the sustained media attacks on him recently, is actually not doing that bad.

00:06:02.840 A net favorability of negative four is not that bad for a conservative. When you have the media against

00:06:08.700 you, when the general kind of culture of Canada is that conservatives are very American, and for some

00:06:14.220 reason we hate Americans, negative four is perfectly fine. If you looked at Aaron O'Toole's

00:06:19.080 polling, if you looked at Andrew Scheer's polling, it was more like negative 12. It was like negative

00:06:23.340 eight, negative 15. Negative four is fine. 38% approval, 42% disapproval. And again, I'm going

00:06:31.360 to keep repeating it. If Carney can't sign a deal, or we end up with like 15% tariff, and people are

00:06:36.380 like, didn't you promise you were going to solve this issue? You could see a lot of the stuff reversing

00:06:41.240 people remembering, hey, this is why I actually liked Polyev at one point, because he was going to fix

00:06:46.160 these things. And then Carney's is going to kind of reverse with him. His disapproval is going to

00:06:50.500 spike, approval falling, and then Pierre Polyev is going to benefit from a lot of that reversal. A lot

00:06:56.580 of people who are saying, give the liberals a chance, end up swinging back over and say, yeah, never mind,

00:07:02.600 bring the conservatives in, please. So now going down a little bit further here, I want to show you

00:07:11.260 the polling between the conservatives and the liberals. It's actually not going too bad for

00:07:17.980 the liberal for the conservatives right now. Obviously, they are behind. We are in a honeymoon

00:07:22.520 period for the liberal party. But this is not exactly what most parties experience after winning

00:07:30.240 reelection. And this isn't a cork of abacus data where they tend to be always really tight between the

00:07:36.220 liberals and conservatives. You can see back in the day, back last year, the conservatives

00:07:40.440 were absolutely clobbering the liberals when Justin Trudeau was the leader. And typically in abacus

00:07:47.160 polling, after the liberals won reelection in 2021, after the liberals won reelection in 2019,

00:07:53.560 in 2015, they were soaring right after the election. Because it actually is a phenomenon that after the

00:07:59.720 party in power wins reelection, or they first get elected, a lot of people who actually voted the other

00:08:08.260 way start saying that they like these guys in. Part of it's because you want to pretend you were on the

00:08:12.840 winning team. And also part of it is saying, well, you know, they won fair and square. So if an election

00:08:17.680 happened right the second, I would say vote for the guys who just won, because they deserve to have

00:08:21.660 their time in office. That's not happening for the liberals right now. It's actually very tight with

00:08:26.880 the liberals only leading the conservatives 43% to 40, which is effectively in the margin of error.

00:08:34.260 The margin of error on a poll like this is going to be two and a half percent. And the 40 and 43 are

00:08:39.320 probably subject to being rounded up and down. And so again, if Mark Carney, I'm going to keep repeating

00:08:47.120 it, does not sign a trade deal, he is not going to be doing very hot in the polls quite soon. I know

00:08:53.620 people can point to Nanos, they can point to other pollsters where the liberals are doing far better.

00:08:59.440 But I just take those with a grain of salt. When I see a poll rollout that says the liberals are

00:09:04.160 currently leading by 13 points. No, I just really don't see it. Nanos is one of these ones. Angus

00:09:11.560 Reid are one of those pollsters that during the election, we're showing the liberals up like seven,

00:09:16.340 eight points, six, seven points before the election. And then it ended up being like a point and a half.

00:09:21.620 The liberals won the popular vote by. And so, yeah, I don't really see that as being accurate

00:09:28.700 when a pollster that previously showed that they were going to win by six points, which would be a

00:09:32.740 big majority for the liberals, are now showing they're going to be leading by 13 points.

00:09:37.040 I think it's just response bias that are happening with those pollsters. Abacus showed like a slight

00:09:42.360 liberal lead before election day in their normal poll. And then they ended up doing a little bit better

00:09:48.120 than Abacus said. But that was far closer than what a lot of the other pollsters were showing,

00:09:52.460 which was going to be a blowout for the liberals of a win of six to nine points. So I tend to trust

00:09:58.080 the ones that were more coherent, I guess, when it came to the difference between the polling and the

00:10:04.180 actual election result. But anyways, that should be it for this video, guys. I just want to do a short

00:10:09.200 one of just kind of setting up the table for what could happen, for what things currently look like

00:10:15.140 in a situation where it doesn't look like Mark Carney is going to be getting a good trade deal.

00:10:20.200 He wasn't doing that good before we weren't getting a trade deal. Let's see how things are

00:10:24.580 going to evolve after. Of course, if you guys like this video, make sure to leave a like on it,

00:10:29.340 subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a subscriber, and leave a comment on what you

00:10:33.580 think is going to happen with the trade deal and Mark Carney's approval. See you guys later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - July 21, 2025

Poll shows Carney is vulnerable ahead of trade deal or disaster (CPC 3% behind Liberals)

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