The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Polls are tight as Carney and Poilievre eye a 2026 election!

00:00:00.000 Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back to talk about Canadian polling.

00:00:04.880 Today I want to discuss the numbers in the context of a early election sometime in 2026,

00:00:12.600 whether it's the spring, the summer, or the fall. Because it's very obvious, despite the vote on

00:00:18.820 the budget, that the opposition parties do want an early election. They just didn't want an early

00:00:24.880 election that coincided with Christmas, because no opposition party wants to look like the Grinch

00:00:30.700 party, ruining everyone's Christmas to talk about politics and campaign at their doors when everyone

00:00:36.800 just wants to be with their families. You also had the NDP without a permanent leader and being flat

00:00:43.560 broke, which also gave them an extra motivation to keep a couple of their MPs back to make sure

00:00:48.780 the Liberal budget passed. The Conservatives also kept a couple of their MPs back, but that doesn't

00:00:54.760 mean that somehow they like the budget or they don't actually disagree with the Liberals.

00:00:59.600 I know there are some more PPC-aligned people out there saying the Conservatives betrayed everyone

00:01:04.800 because two of their MPs didn't vote to defeat the budget. Well, even if both of the two abstaining

00:01:10.760 Conservative MPs voted for it, the Speaker could have still broken the tie in favor of the Liberals.

00:01:17.680 At the end of the day, it wasn't a good time for the Conservatives to go to an election anyways.

00:01:22.180 They would rather take the Liberals on in the spring or summer when more promises are broken

00:01:26.840 or when bad economic news comes out of one of the updates that the Liberal government does have to

00:01:32.940 deliver. But right now, I want to talk to you about where the numbers currently sit, because although

00:01:38.700 the Liberals have an advantage, despite how confident they've seen behind the scenes, I don't think they

00:01:44.720 should want an early election. The December election would probably be their best chance of winning a

00:01:50.020 majority. But things are much, much closer than they were during the last election. This is Angus

00:01:58.640 Reid's numbers. They just show their chart over the last, you know, over the last year since January

00:02:04.440 with polling updates every couple of months. And what you see is in March, March 25th, which was a month

00:02:12.180 before the election, they had the race slated as being 42 percent Liberal, 37 percent Conservatives.

00:02:19.800 They got the numbers pretty close to the April election. I think they overestimated the Liberals

00:02:28.080 by a point and they underestimated the Conservatives by a point. And considering that, the Liberals

00:02:34.020 shouldn't be sitting too comfortably knowing that back in September, the Conservatives were in fact

00:02:39.200 leading them by two points. And now they're only leading the Conservatives by two points after a

00:02:45.080 really bad news cycle for Pierre Polyev. I'm not saying the news cycle was justified. It was the

00:02:51.540 stupid floor-crossing controversy where Chris Dontremont left and then the media played it up that there 0.99

00:02:57.140 were going to be tons and tons of other MPs who may leave. Well, the book was kind of closed on that. 0.98

00:03:03.220 Matt Gennaro was the only other person who was rumored as wanting to potentially cross the floor,

00:03:08.240 and he just ended up saying he's going to resign sometime in the spring. And then two other

00:03:12.740 Conservative MPs from Quebec who were rumored to want to leave came out and said, no, we are

00:03:17.360 absolutely not leaving. We are not traitors to the Conservative Party. And so that's all over.

00:03:22.940 And despite that really bad news cycle for Polyev, it wasn't fair, but it was the news cycle,

00:03:28.660 he only ended up not like just dropping a little bit behind the Liberals in such a way where actually

00:03:34.740 this would probably lose the Liberal seats. If the final result in the next election was 40% Liberal to

00:03:41.160 38% Conservative, the Conservatives would gain seats and the Liberals would lose them. And if the Bloc

00:03:47.080 Québécois jumps up to 8% from 6% and the NDP jumps up to 9% from 6% as well, they would also both be

00:03:54.600 gaining seats mostly at the expense of the Liberal Party. So I don't think the Liberals will actually

00:04:01.200 improve from here on. Because the Liberals are relying on the idea that by simply announcing a bunch of

00:04:07.620 stuff, you're going to like them. Now that may work as a campaign strategy in the extreme short term, but the

00:04:15.320 problem is if we enter a spring election or a summer election or a fall election in 2026, and the Liberals don't

00:04:21.980 have any substantial real achievements under their belts, I don't think that many Canadians are going to bother 0.72

00:04:28.080 casting a vote for them. Because I think that voter enthusiasm is going to remain quite high for Pierre

00:04:34.040 Polyev in the Conservative base, where Mark Carney was the guy you voted because you didn't like Donald 0.98

00:04:39.960 Trump, and that was a stupid narrative the Liberals generated in the last election. It was really well 0.98

00:04:45.260 done. They did get a lot of people driven out to vote for them. They did win the popular vote and the

00:04:50.140 most seats. But it's not a trick, I've said before, that you can really pull off twice. You can't run against

00:04:56.020 boogeyman Donald Trump two times in a row when clearly your own domestic policies suck and it's 0.83

00:05:01.900 the main thing that's causing people financial friction in their lives as individuals. But now

00:05:08.020 I want to move on to some other polling numbers, this time from Nanos. Now remember, Nanos itself

00:05:14.780 is a pollster that tends to have a little bit more of a liberal sample. But their polling these days

00:05:21.600 shows, again, a very tight race like Angus Reid. I'm using polling Canada's graphic for this one.

00:05:28.820 And they show, with a sample size of 1,000 people and a margin of error of 3.1, so this is a statistical

00:05:35.020 tie, the Liberals are at 40%, Conservatives at 38%, NDP at 10%, Block at 7%, Greens at 2%, and PPC at 1%.

00:05:43.600 I genuinely don't even think the PPC is going to get 1% of the vote next time. It is a defunct party.

00:05:51.020 There's just nothing really going on with them. But with this poll, 38 to 40, Sheree Attis actually

00:05:57.520 ran the numbers on this one to see what this would actually get modeled out to. And he's one of the

00:06:02.880 best polling projectionists in the country, despite just being 17 years old. Like, he was very close to

00:06:08.380 getting the ridings right in the last election by just compiling polling data and then putting them

00:06:13.320 through his model with a bunch of other factors he adds in. And he would model out an election where

00:06:18.720 the Liberals would get 156 seats, the Conservatives would get 143, Block would get 30, NDP 12, and Greens

00:06:26.440 2. That would mean the Liberals would lose 13 seats, Conservatives would lose 1 seat, Block would lose

00:06:32.460 8, NDP would gain 5, or sorry, Block would gain 8, NDP would gain 5, and the Greens would gain 1.

00:06:38.460 And that's what I've kind of been speculating would happen. I think the Conservatives could

00:06:43.220 potentially pick up seats just in that particular model they were losing. But the Liberals are actually

00:06:48.420 losing a lot of votes back over to the Progressive left and to the Quebec Sovereignist left. Because

00:06:54.780 by trying to make a budget that pleased everyone, Mark Carney did a fantastic job in pleasing nobody.

00:07:01.900 The spending was way too high in order to convince former Conservative voters who cast at least one ballot for

00:07:07.860 Kearney in 2025 that he is fiscally responsible. But he also cut too much around public employees and

00:07:14.700 operating budgets to make a lot of the more progressive left voters who ended up abandoning the NDP in 2025 to

00:07:21.740 vote for Kearney to actually keep them around. I think a lot of those people are going to think, oh my goodness,

00:07:26.420 he's too conservative. I have to go back and vote for whoever the NDP leader is going to end up being. And the NDP leader is

00:07:33.620 really going to make a difference here. Because when you look at polling around who you prefer as Prime

00:07:38.820 Minister, the NDP is woefully low because they are a first rate non-entity right now. This was Nanos' polling

00:07:47.580 when it came to the leadership of the country. Who would you like to see? Oh, sorry, I'm trying to find it.

00:07:53.280 Yeah. Who would you like to see as Prime Minister? Now, Kearney actually hits 50%. 50% of people want

00:08:01.380 him to be the Prime Minister. Now, that's not very surprising considering that, heck, he just got

00:08:07.600 elected as Prime Minister six months ago. And a lot of people taking these surveys will just default to

00:08:12.300 say, well, I guess whoever just won should probably be the Prime Minister. But even then, as we see in the

00:08:18.060 national numbers, it doesn't seem to matter very much. But the only thing I want to focus on

00:08:22.440 is Don Davies' number. He's the interim NDP leader, and he's only polling at 4% for preferred Prime

00:08:29.740 Minister. Now, again, I just said it doesn't really matter that Polyev is falling below Kearney. But the

00:08:36.140 thing is with the NDP and why they need a very, very bombastic leader is typically speaking, even though

00:08:41.940 it's an impossibility pretty much that the NDP leader will be Prime Minister. Typically in previous

00:08:48.640 polls, even when Jagmeet Singh was the leader of the NDP, the NDP would punch pretty high up in the

00:08:55.640 preferred Prime Minister polls. Sorry, Jagmeet Singh, although Nenshi would also basically poll exactly

00:09:01.580 Jagmeet Singh, Jagmeet Singh could get 18% or so. Pretty much anyone voting NDP would also say they

00:09:07.620 prefer him as the Prime Minister. This is a poll where the NDP got 10 points and only 4% of people

00:09:13.160 think that Don Davies should be the Prime Minister. So hopefully the NDP end up picking a very big

00:09:19.160 personality who will end up sucking away a lot of the progressive left vote of the Liberals that they

00:09:24.740 ended up stealing from the NDP in the last election. I would like to see it be Heather McPherson because 1.00

00:09:30.840 she's not really going to do damage to Conservatives in the local area because Alberta, where she is a 1.00

00:09:37.100 MP, is too conservative to really be affected by her being on the ground as the NDP leader. But

00:09:43.560 she is so, you know, she's very popular with the pro-Hamas hyper-progressive urban crowd that I think

00:09:49.540 she would do a lot of damage to the Liberals in the GTA, in the Vancouver area, in Montreal, all that

00:09:55.960 sort of thing. Anyways, but now I also just want to jump over to polling when it comes to issues. Now,

00:10:03.680 I don't love the way Nanos does this. I like the way that Abacus does it where you get to pick a few

00:10:09.640 different issues as your top issues because no one really just has a single top issue. But in this

00:10:16.100 poll, it shows that Trump and US relations as major issues for people continues to drop. That Trump in

00:10:24.700 the US has fallen to 17%. It's fallen by 1% since they last did a poll. Jobs and economy holds at 17.

00:10:32.060 Inflation fell a little bit to 8. Healthcare jumped up to 8. Immigration jumped up to 7 from 5. Environment

00:10:38.500 fell from 5 to 4. Debt and deficit fell from 5 to 4. Housing fell by 1 point. Education jumped up by 1

00:10:45.240 point. And crime is at 1. Now, again, I don't really like this particular way of polling top issues

00:10:51.520 because I feel like people have a few top issues and making them decide on one kind of confuses

00:10:55.380 people. But in Nanos polling, Trump and US relations used to be above 30%. This used to be

00:11:02.500 a massive top issue. This is why the liberals started winning the 55 plus voter. Now, if you're above the

00:11:09.300 age of 55 and you're watching my show, you're probably conservative. But you would have to agree

00:11:13.820 a lot of people above the age of 55 watch a lot of mainstream media and they obsess a lot about Donald

00:11:19.400 Trump because that's what Canadian mainstream media talks about all the time. The fact that

00:11:24.420 we've effectively had that issue fall in half for the liberals means that they're going to have to

00:11:29.400 run on something other than Trump derangement. And now the liberals don't really have a record to run

00:11:35.840 on. They're trying to manufacture a record to run on by signing fake trade deals and by trying to just

00:11:42.660 announce a bunch of hollow projects. But that's not really something I believe is going to be making

00:11:47.220 people run out of the house and slam a vote in the ballot box for them. Now, I just want to jump over

00:11:53.820 to this clip of Pierre Polyev talking about Mark Carney on the economy. I think that this was sort of

00:12:00.560 Pierre Polyev positioning himself for the next election, talking about the hollow achievements

00:12:05.020 of Mark Carney. And I think this is probably the right thing for him to do. You can't go too bombastic

00:12:11.180 because you have to wait for the liberals to really mess up to go hard on them. But I think that

00:12:15.600 this light mockery of the sort of gamesmanship, the showmanship of Carney is a good idea.

00:12:21.700 What are Canadians getting for the 28 trips, 150,000 kilometers, enough to circle the world

00:12:31.600 four times that the prime ministers build back to Canadians? Well, he met with the Americans and

00:12:38.180 they doubled tariffs on our steel aluminum autos and tripled them on our forestry. He met with the

00:12:42.980 Chinese who increased tariffs on our farmers and fish harvesters. He met with the Indians. They

00:12:48.120 increased tariffs on Canadian peas. He met the Brits and they're keeping their blockade on our beef.

00:12:53.900 Why is it that whenever the prime minister gets on a plane, Canadians end up paying more tariffs abroad?

00:13:00.080 That's good news for Canadians. Germany just signed a... 0.95

00:13:02.760 Of course, Mark Carney is not the one who tries to answer this question.

00:13:05.580 One billion dollar deal with Lockheed Martin, Canada to support jobs right here in this country.

00:13:11.620 This is what Canadians are getting from the prime minister being on the world stage.

00:13:15.920 He got a one billion dollar deal. The most money they can say was invested was a one billion dollar

00:13:23.220 deal. Now, that's nothing to sneeze at. That's a lot for one company to give. But the problem is

00:13:27.000 there's not a lot of other companies giving money. And the defense sector investing in Canada is not

00:13:32.820 that shocking considering it's a very much a government driven industry. You don't have a

00:13:37.660 lot of private armies around Canada. So if the Canadian government's willing to dump money into

00:13:42.380 supporting the defense industry in Canada, they're going to show up. That's fine. That's a, that's an

00:13:47.260 achievement. But I'm not sure if a lot of people are, again, running out of the house to like slam dunk

00:13:51.940 a, like a ballot in the ballot box because Lockheed Martin is setting up shop and doing one billion

00:13:58.140 dollars of extra business in Canada. Selling what Canada has to offer. Unlocking new markets

00:14:03.260 and creating good jobs here in Canada. The prime minister billing millions of dollars for his

00:14:07.380 high flying trips around the world. 28 trips, 150,000 kilometers. Now is the time for a scorecard.

00:14:13.780 The Americans have increased tariffs on Canadian autos, aluminum, steel, and lumber. The Indians have 1.00

00:14:21.040 increased tariff on our peas. The Chinese increased it on our farmers, our fish harvesters. Now, allow me to

00:14:27.380 introduce a comprehensive list of all the tariffs the prime minister has successfully had. Oh, and by

00:14:34.100 the way, they're yelling at him because he's now introducing a prop into the house and this is

00:14:37.900 somehow bad. He's holding a sheet and this is violative of the rules. Produced on Canada. 1.00

00:14:43.700 Yeah, so I think that the conservative strategy going into this next election, maybe I'll start off

00:14:57.320 with the bloc. The bloc is very easy. The idea is that they did not negotiate with them. This

00:15:02.620 government would love to ignore Quebec. And so you need even more bloc MPs in parliament to make sure 0.57

00:15:08.320 that the liberals do not get a majority government and can fully dismiss Quebec as a concern.

00:15:16.620 Now, the NDP needs to say this government is anti-worker. This government is too conservative.

00:15:22.080 They're secret Harper conservatives. And so you need more NDP MPs to make sure that the public sector

00:15:28.580 union worker is not all like, you know, they're not all laid off and fired in order to try and reduce

00:15:35.060 the Carney deficit. Now, the funny thing is Carney blowing out the deficit. And that's where the

00:15:39.880 conservatives can go after this guy for being a spendthrift fool, somebody who pretends like he's 1.00

00:15:45.500 a big shot, but doesn't actually know what he's doing and being a complete weakling when negotiating 0.99

00:15:50.240 with the Chinese, with the Americans and with pretty much everybody else. Now, I don't think that

00:15:55.120 you need like this hyper elbows up fighty approach with the Americans. In fact, when you're dealing with 0.98

00:16:00.220 Donald Trump, be nice, look for a win-win scenario, and basically try and be seemingly as team America

00:16:07.520 as possible. We're Canada, but we're cheering on America from the sidelines. That's what you end up

00:16:12.640 doing with the Americans. But the conservatives can say that Mark Carney has been basically doing

00:16:17.000 the worst of both worlds. He acts like a weakling at the same time he talks tough. He'll talk tough,

00:16:21.640 tick Trump off, and then act weak in the aftermath and get absolutely nothing out of it, but give more

00:16:26.360 concessions just to get back to the table. And so then the conservatives can also just go after

00:16:30.740 all the hollow things he's been doing and the very peevish elitist character of Mark Carney.

00:16:37.140 I know like there's people out there like Rupert Supramania saying you shouldn't attack

00:16:40.860 Murkfield Asset Management. It's in fact a Canadian institution and a success story.

00:16:45.940 No, it isn't. It's not like it's not. They're not. Are they evil? No, it's it's a company that's very

00:16:51.700 much targeted the subsidy market, the grant market. Anytime there's government money going

00:16:56.760 into an industry, Brookfield Asset Management is at the other side of the pipeline with their mouths

00:17:00.900 open. They know how to line up in order to get into industries where you couldn't possibly fail

00:17:06.480 because of all the taxpayer money being just absolutely launched into it. But the conservatives

00:17:12.960 in terms of the electoral map, I think need to focus on the GTA digging into those suburban GTA 0.99

00:17:19.240 neighborhoods, not downtown Toronto. They need to focus on southwestern Ontario, and they need to

00:17:24.940 focus on places like Brampton and Mississauga by just having better candidates in those areas.

00:17:30.300 There were far too many kind of pompous community leaders who ended up kind of using their sharp elbows

00:17:35.720 to move themselves to the front of the line and try and woo Pierre Polio's people into appointing them,

00:17:41.340 many of whom were not actually popular individuals in the area. There is a reason why in the writing of

00:17:46.720 Brampton East, Jeff Lall, who ran for the PPC, doubled the PPC vote. Now, the PPC performed

00:17:53.420 pathetically last election. They got 0.7% of the vote. But Jeff Lall took them from 2021, 0.83

00:18:00.700 only getting 2.5% of the vote in Brampton East, so it was an underperformance compared to the rest of

00:18:05.500 the country. He doubled the vote because there were too many Hindu candidates who ended up getting 1.00

00:18:11.280 kicked out in Brampton and Mississauga, and many of them basically stayed home, or if they did show up,

00:18:16.360 they voted for the PPC, to the point where if there was a Hindu temple in the polling district

00:18:21.700 in Brampton East, if there was a Hindu temple in a polling district, the PPC was getting like 15%.

00:18:27.500 Most Hindus didn't even vote, but if they did vote, they voted PPC just because they resented too many 0.90

00:18:32.400 of their people getting kicked out. Now, I want open nominations, but just make sure you don't kick

00:18:36.880 out people needlessly who didn't deserve it just simply because other people in the community

00:18:42.140 basically said, well, we're not going to support you if you let that guy be the leader or be the

00:18:46.340 candidate, and way too much of that went on. But that's what the conservatives need to do in Brampton 0.85

00:18:51.800 and Mississauga. So again, target GTA, target Brampton and Mississauga, and I know those are in the GTA,

00:18:57.160 but it's a little bit different than like the York areas. Southwest Ontario, and then hit the Okanagan Valley

00:19:03.880 and hit the lower mainland really, really hard. Anyways, well, that should be it for me today in

00:19:10.580 this video, guys. No doubt, I will be back someday with more comprehensive polling video. I'm out in

00:19:15.660 Victoria right now working at the legislature for the 1BC party. Hey, if you're in British Columbia,

00:19:21.280 please look at the 1BC party, check us out, join the party. We're actually conservative, unlike the

00:19:26.760 BC conservatives. But while I've been out here, I don't have my whiteboard with me and all that stuff.

00:19:32.200 So it makes making videos a little bit more annoying. But hopefully, you guys don't mind

00:19:36.580 this. And hopefully, just the sound of my voice is enough to make you watch even if I get a bit

00:19:40.840 boring. But with all that being said, thank you for watching, like, share, and subscribe. And I'll see

00:19:45.720 you all later.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - November 19, 2025

Polls are tight as Carney and Poilievre eye a 2026 election!

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