The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - Polls, Liberal leadership, and Ontario Election

00:00:00.000 Ahoy, everyone. Well, it's a busy day. I just got back from helping a nomination campaign

00:00:08.200 in Bow River, Alberta for the Federal Conservatives. And now I'm back home to talk about the Ontario

00:00:15.060 provincial election, which is the province I just got back from as of a couple of days

00:00:20.220 ago, helping out the new Blue Party of Ontario, which to preface right away, because people

00:00:25.600 are going to be like, oh my goodness, they didn't win a seat. I'm like, yeah, that was

00:00:28.460 like, kind of what everyone knew was going to happen. I never even said they were going

00:00:32.280 to win a seat. The whole point is that this isn't even really the new Blue's second election.

00:00:37.480 They got 2.7% the first time, which was fairly impressive for a new party. And I think they're

00:00:42.340 mostly going to maintain their vote this time, which is fine for them, because this is like

00:00:47.120 election number one, part two, because the snap election was bad for everybody. Nobody.

00:00:54.880 Yeah, thanks, Smug Dog. Worst time is live streams all the time, Wyatt. Yeah, I have terrible

00:01:01.300 timing with live streams. But this was a terrible snap election for pretty much everybody but

00:01:06.540 the PCs. And it's even a bad election for the PCs, because they're losing support. And

00:01:12.220 I don't think that this election does them any favors in the long run. Yeah, it wins them

00:01:16.660 another four year term. But I could see them actually losing out in the long run, because

00:01:21.320 everyone hates what they did here. But maybe I'll stream on screen some of the

00:01:26.200 some of the riding

00:01:29.140 some of the riding results and whatnot.

00:01:36.040 Matthew Ansettel says, congratulations, Doug Ford. Unfortunately, my area is liberal.

00:01:41.080 What do you mean to congratulations to Doug Ford? Doug Ford is, in fact, a liberal. That's

00:01:45.980 the whole problem in Ontario politics right now, is that it's not even being like a purist

00:01:51.060 and saying, well, the PCs didn't do this thing or that thing. Ergo, they're liberals. Like

00:01:56.080 they are basically flipping liberals. They do everything the exact same.

00:02:02.960 Cowboy said, voted new blue in Oakville, North Burlington. Hopefully common sense comes back

00:02:07.940 to Ontario. Yeah, it's not going to be this year. This snap election was basically Doug Ford

00:02:13.600 just grabbing a hold of a new term well before any of his opponents could organize. So like

00:02:18.820 I even knew the new blue people, the leadership wasn't even able to door knock in their own 1.00

00:02:23.460 ridings being Jim and Belinda, because they were too busy managing other ridings and trying

00:02:28.340 to get candidates on the ballot. Because once the new blue party got its 108 candidates on

00:02:33.060 the ballot, and it couldn't do the full 124 because it was so short notice. Like at that

00:02:37.720 point, they were just having to help people with finances and other stuff. So this was a

00:02:41.880 perfect election for Doug Ford to sneak another term through. Well, nobody knew it was going

00:02:46.160 to happen, even though his performance in office is frankly abysmal. I immediately want to give

00:02:52.500 a shout out to a fantastic new blue candidate who again, although not winning, did really,

00:02:58.300 really well. It's the new blue candidate in the riding of Chatham, what is this before I show

00:03:05.060 it? Chatham, Kent, Leamington. Rhonda Jubinville actually got 7.9% of the vote, and it's still 0.97

00:03:16.360 not all counted up, so her percentage could go up. She actually got 3,200 votes. I believe

00:03:21.760 she's almost more than doubled her vote count and her share from last time, which I think

00:03:26.680 is really, really, really impressive for a candidate like that. Kaz, hi, Wyatt voted

00:03:33.160 new blue today. Heck yeah. Good job.

00:03:40.460 Sook, yeah, Wyatt finds someone to run in Esquilma and Sook riding Vancouver Island. I'm not sure

00:03:48.620 if I know anyone around there. Is there even a nomination going on at the moment? Because

00:03:53.560 sometimes they don't even call it because it's too soon to the election. They just appoint

00:03:57.760 somebody. But yeah, if the Conservatives or the new blue party, which is basically the

00:04:04.500 actual Conservatives, and again, this is not like a PPC purist thing. I don't like the PPC

00:04:09.360 because generally speaking, the federal Conservatives under peer poly of do a pretty good job overall.

00:04:16.380 Under Aaron O'Toole, I was telling people to vote PPC. It's not because I like the PPC that

00:04:21.160 much. I find that they can be overly puristic. They can be kind of lazy when it comes to actual

00:04:26.760 election performances. But in terms of how bad Aaron O'Toole was, yeah, people should have voted

00:04:33.700 PPC as a protest vote. And it's good the Conservatives lost in 2021 because they didn't do the work

00:04:40.180 required to win. I hate Justin Trudeau, but I want to replace him with an actual Conservative,

00:04:45.680 not a fakey Conservative like O'Toole who ends up getting nothing done. Your poly of is more than a

00:04:51.860 significant improvement over Justin Trudeau in terms of Canadian leadership. So I am supporting

00:04:56.820 the federal Conservatives. But in Ontario, the Doug Ford PC party is so fiscally liberal,

00:05:04.280 so socially liberal, so culturally liberal, I couldn't vote for those guys. That's the problem,

00:05:10.120 is that they aren't good on anything. Education, they suck. They're big DEI people. They're big 1.00

00:05:15.920 ESG people. They're big green energy people. They've not lowered taxes. And Doug Ford will wear

00:05:20.840 that as a badge of honor. I haven't raised taxes. Okay, but it's because taxes are effectively at

00:05:27.880 their maximum. The only place, I actually think Ontario has higher taxes than British Columbia.

00:05:32.800 If you were to even raise taxes, a half a percent at this point, you would have hundreds of thousands

00:05:37.620 of rich people leave Ontario because they are currently sitting at the breaking point. So it's

00:05:42.280 not at all, it's not at all impressive that the, it's not at all impressive that they haven't raised

00:05:50.080 taxes. And in technically they have raised taxes because on top of the consumer federal carbon tax,

00:05:55.540 the Doug Ford PCs have made their own industrial carbon tax. But yeah, to sum up the Ontario election

00:06:04.400 very fast here, the good things that happened for the new blue party was that it basically

00:06:09.080 maintained its vote. It's vanquished the other fake right-wing party, the Ontario party, which I'm not

00:06:15.220 even kidding, is a fake Ontario PC party front group. It is meant to be confusing so that people

00:06:21.820 don't know which alternative right party to vote for, and they split the vote between them.

00:06:26.140 The Ontario party only fielded 44 candidates. The new blue party fielded 44 candidates. So I thought

00:06:32.260 that was quite good. That like, and then what I'm, I'm, I'm not even like, I'm not an employee of the

00:06:38.700 new blue party, but I'm going to be helping them a lot in the next couple of years, help them data

00:06:43.280 mine, get petitions running, get data. So that in this next election cycle, because again, this wasn't

00:06:49.080 really their second election. This was election number one, part two, because it's a snap election.

00:06:54.440 It's like a provincial wide by-election where none of your candidates even have time to print signs.

00:06:59.180 And so the fact that they maintain things means that we are, we held steady. And now you can go

00:07:05.580 around just collecting data, just getting massive amounts of data for each of the ridings you're

00:07:12.480 running in. So then when the new blue party starts the next election, they can find a good dozen

00:07:17.300 ridings where they have like 4,000 pieces of data in each one. And then you start out, you can start

00:07:23.860 door knocking those ridings eight months in advance, and you can start putting up signs and you can start

00:07:28.840 door knocking people, getting people used to the candidate, because that's kind of what you need.

00:07:33.240 You need to get to the point where, this is like election theory. If you door knock people,

00:07:40.040 and you're a new small party, there's a certain percentage of people who will consider a small

00:07:44.120 party to vote for. But to even unlock the next 15% of people to vote for you, who will even consider

00:07:51.240 it? You need to get to 5%. Once you're at 10%, maybe there's now 25 to 30% of people considering

00:07:56.760 voting for you. Once you're at like 18%, now probably 50% of people would even consider

00:08:02.000 voting for you, even if it's unlikely. And then once you're past 25%, now basically everyone

00:08:07.380 will in some way consider voting for you, even if they hate you. They consider you a major

00:08:12.780 party, in the sense that maybe if they hated the incumbent enough, they'd vote for you,

00:08:17.980 knowing that you're a party that can win. And so that's what new blue needs to do in the next few

00:08:22.920 years here. Datamine, grow the brand, have their local candidates become community figures. That's

00:08:29.280 why, again, as I'm going to show, Rhonda Jubinville did such a good job. I cannot say enough good

00:08:35.500 things about Rhonda Jubinville. She, in the last election in 2022, I believe she got like 4.3%

00:08:41.640 of the vote. She then rolled the experience she got running for the new blue party in 2022

00:08:47.200 to become a Chatham-Kent councillor. And she's a very based councillor to the point where the rest

00:08:53.040 of council keeps trying to sanction her for saying sensible things about not having LGBTQ flags flying

00:08:59.640 24-7 on public flagpoles. She just says, maybe we should go back to neutral flags. And they're

00:09:04.700 trying to slam her for that. So she is a very cool person. And so she's gone from getting 4.2%,

00:09:11.680 maybe like 3.8% in the last election. So then becoming a councillor in a small town,

00:09:17.320 like a smaller city. And now she came back to run again. And now she's doubled her vote. 1.00

00:09:22.760 She's at the point where she's a real threat in maybe three or four years if her profile keeps 0.94

00:09:28.040 going up. Maybe, you know, no, maybe she runs for mayor next year. I would support her doing that. 0.96

00:09:33.540 That would be fun. And then she could roll that into becoming an actual MPP. But yeah.

00:09:38.900 CJR902 has a good point. Maybe look at how the Saskatchewan party managed to gain a foothold

00:09:47.020 against the establishment for a blueprint for New Blue. And I agree. What you do with small parties,

00:09:53.240 small parties usually have to go through a few elections where they're not winning seats. But

00:09:58.660 the whole point is that the party names come up in front of people's eyes enough that it's becoming

00:10:02.900 one of those parties that everybody knows. There's small parties that have been around for a while,

00:10:07.080 but still nobody knows them because they run in like a handful of ridings and they don't even do

00:10:11.260 it consistently. So they're always considered fringe. You can be a party that's never won a

00:10:16.000 seat, but everyone kind of knows you. Even there's like, and so if you just keep gaining your 4%,

00:10:22.440 6%, 8%, even 2% in certain ridings, you still by door knocking and handing out literature,

00:10:29.220 have the name pass in front of people's eyes. And it's becoming a more normal thing for people to see.

00:10:34.180 So then once you data mine a riding and you start off with 3,500 people who are generally like 80%

00:10:41.880 supportive, that you can get hundreds of signs out on people's lawns on day one of the election to

00:10:47.460 build credibility, that riding is now in play. The math for winning a riding when you're not

00:10:53.720 a, you're not the normal big party changes a lot because the PCs technically could win in any riding

00:11:00.780 if the conditions are right. A small party, the conditions can technically be right for your

00:11:05.500 ideology, but you need the marketing. You need people to see your name several dozen times before

00:11:10.920 they're willing to see it. And the thing that always annoys me is people, and this isn't too many

00:11:15.400 people, and most people are very understanding. They'll see it like, well, new blue didn't win.

00:11:19.940 I'm going to go back to voting PC. I'm like, wasn't the point that you stopped voting PC because they

00:11:25.280 suck. If you truly just want to be on the winning team, then just don't get into politics. Go watch

00:11:31.400 a sports team. Just go watch the Lakers. Go watch like the, the Patriots play in New England because

00:11:38.380 politics isn't your thing if winning for the right reasons isn't why you care about it. Anyways.

00:11:45.940 The fixer says new blue lost a vote for my sister. She was ready to vote for them and saw that they

00:11:56.720 wanted to defund elective abortion. I think they need to avoid this topic altogether. I would disagree

00:12:02.820 because there is a good 30 to 40% of people who would agree that you should be defunding elective

00:12:09.620 abortion, including myself. Plus it's the right position to have. And I think with a small party,

00:12:14.820 you have to base it on principle, hard principle that we believe in things that large portions of

00:12:20.980 the population believe in and their ideas are not being served. And so I'm not even trying to be rude

00:12:25.460 to your sister, probably a nice lady, but it's that I'd rather try and change her mind over time

00:12:31.000 than the party water itself down because there's a theoretical person out there who may have voted

00:12:35.900 for us if we had fewer principles on those matters. Uh, smug dog or smug Doug, uh, uh, with the 1399

00:12:44.560 super chat. Thank you for that smug Doug. Whoa, just saw almost 40,000 subscribers. I think you might

00:12:50.300 actually get a free dinner. Uh, what are some of why it's favorite foods? I'm not a picky eater. I'll

00:12:55.660 pretty much eat pretty much anything as long as it's not too, like if I'm to describe things,

00:13:01.200 I don't like eating. Like I like things that are too cream based. Like I don't like Alfredo oddly

00:13:07.180 enough. I don't like things like mayo on things, but pretty much I like all food. I like Japanese

00:13:12.800 food a lot. I like, um, I like British food as, as silly as, as boring as that sounds. I really like 0.89

00:13:18.680 British food. Thank you guys all for voting new blue. Know what, know what's one of my favorite

00:13:23.680 restaurants in Calgary. If you guys want to hit it up, um, a great one, if you live in Calgary is,

00:13:29.720 and I think there's a couple locations, but they do a good job, um, is, is the Himalayan.

00:13:35.180 I think it's called the Himalayan. It's not like the blue Himalayan. It's just Himalayan.

00:13:39.700 They're really great. I really, really like Nepali food. It's a little bit like Indian and it's a

00:13:44.900 little bit like Chinese, but it's kind of like a more tomatoey savory Indian food. I think it's

00:13:52.080 fantastic. Tanner L voted new blue because why it told me to, you know what? I'll accept that.

00:13:58.780 Even if that sounds slightly unprincipled. Yeah. The fixer says there was no new blue

00:14:03.640 candidate in my writing and that sucks. Um, that like, and that was just based on the short notice

00:14:09.780 the new blue party was even warning people. The election could come soon, but, and it's

00:14:14.240 understandable. A lot of people were saying, of course, there's not going to be the elections

00:14:18.020 not for a year and a half. Why would Doug Ford do that? I think a lot of people understandably

00:14:23.840 underestimated how unethical Doug Ford is willing to be. This is not illegal to call an election

00:14:30.100 this fast, but it is unethical in my opinion. Uh, Dennis Thompson says new blue was a distraction

00:14:37.560 like the PPC in my opinion. The thing you would have to, uh, uh, dance you about that Dennis is

00:14:43.800 that what do you mean by distraction? What is the Ontario PC party doing? That's so good

00:14:48.980 that the new blue party is attempting to distract from it. The PPC isn't even really a distraction.

00:14:54.840 I think it's just become an ego project of Maxime Bernier in the last few years.

00:14:59.500 The PPC had a real reason to exist in 2021 in 2019, arguably they really didn't. Cause I don't think

00:15:05.580 that Andrew Scheer was really so much of a liberal and he really, he's not liberal. He was just kind of

00:15:10.640 watery on certain issues. He was doing pretty good overall as a conservative leader. I just think

00:15:15.700 he lacked some of the oomph and charisma to lead. He was too scared of speaking out on things he

00:15:20.980 believed in and always be honest about what you believe in because you're going to win more people

00:15:24.900 over, honestly advocating for the things you care about rather than dodging. The PPC is become kind

00:15:32.200 of distracting because it's just a party for purists that has no intention of winning. New blue didn't

00:15:38.440 intends to win, maybe not this election, but they intend to win in time and they have EDAs in the vast

00:15:44.040 majority of ridings. They actually try. The problem with the PPC is that they don't have EDAs.

00:15:49.740 They don't try. They collect massive amounts of money to not do anything properly. That's the

00:15:54.920 problem where the new blue party and somebody mentioned before, and it was a good point that

00:15:59.720 you can learn from the Saskatchewan party. You can learn from the Yukon party, the BC conservatives,

00:16:05.900 social credit parties. You can learn from the greens, frankly, the greens. I don't like Elizabeth May at 0.99

00:16:12.860 all, but I will give her credit. She is good at winning. She's good at winning an election as a 0.86

00:16:19.980 fringe candidate. She eventually stopped constantly running in central Nova and getting smashed by Peter 0.99

00:16:26.500 McKay. And she then found out, you know, Saanich and the Gulf islands. I actually want to look at

00:16:32.420 Sanch and the Gulf islands. I want to see what the, um, I want to see what the green party candidate got

00:16:40.420 in that riding before Elizabeth May chose to run in it. Because again, she is not from Vancouver

00:16:46.320 Island by any means. So, okay, here's a great example. I'll bring this up on screen. I, I, someone

00:16:56.560 else sent in a super chat. I'll jump to that fast. I'm not trying to ignore anybody here. Um, here's a

00:17:01.020 great example on Wikipedia. It's just great for the, um, for the, uh, numbers. Actually, let's go back

00:17:07.860 even a little bit more. Let's actually go all the way back to 1993. Look, actually, let's go back to

00:17:14.120 1988 too. This used to be, Saanich and the Gulf ridings, an NDP riding. It was an NDP riding.

00:17:21.840 Conservatives were kind of close. So it's kind of like a union-y blue collar riding. Reform in its

00:17:27.480 first election in 88 got 12% of the vote here. And then they correctly identified, this is a place

00:17:33.080 that if we really concentrate our forces, we can win. And next time they gained it, they got 37%

00:17:39.220 of the vote in 93. Next time they get 43% with the Alliance party, even with Stockwell Day running it

00:17:46.060 very socially conservative, gets 43%. By the way, I love Stockwell Day. He's great.

00:17:50.840 2004, uh, Gary Lund is still the candidate. He starts losing votes. And in 2004, this should have

00:17:59.120 been like, it was not a bad, uh, election for the liberals. They increased their vote.

00:18:05.280 But the thing I had heard is that Gary Lund really didn't care about his own people in his riding. He

00:18:11.660 could care less about serving the constituents. So he started kind of hovering around those high to

00:18:18.060 mid-30 numbers. 2008, he does decently well. That was a good election for Harper.

00:18:25.020 But in 2011, Elizabeth May wins it with 46% of the vote. Beats Gary Lund, who had 35.66%,

00:18:33.520 just destroys the NDP and the liberals. Notice though, in 2008, Andrew Lewis running for the party

00:18:39.780 got 10.45% of the vote. I guarantee what Elizabeth May did was she looked at this and identified,

00:18:46.700 this may be a former Reform Alliance routing. It may be conservative. But there is some sort of

00:18:53.940 granola anti-establishment energy here. And she took all of her forces, went there and drilled. 0.99

00:18:59.860 This is the thing I will whack Maxime Bernier for all the time. He could have won in Boas in 2019,

00:19:05.920 his home riding. He only spent a couple of days in his home riding and really didn't do any

00:19:10.220 pre-election canvassing for the PPC in Boas. And he only lost by 10%. 10% is not a big loss because

00:19:17.300 it was mostly a horse race between him and the conservative. If he stole even 5% from the

00:19:22.740 conservative, or even three, and then just turned out his own vote a little bit more, he could have

00:19:27.120 won. And I just didn't think he was really even trying to. Anyway, sorry, now that that story is

00:19:33.980 over, I'll probably get back to talking about it a bit. But a lot of parties can learn from the

00:19:38.100 Green Party's doggedness, both in federal politics, as well as provincial politics in various provinces.

00:19:45.640 Counterpunch says, for $6.99 super chat, thank you very much for that. Interesting that the Canadian 1.00

00:19:51.980 bagel showed PCs in all London on ridings, but it's actually and continued to be all orange.

00:19:58.120 And that's the thing about the election is that the NDPs had good staying power, even as their vote

00:20:03.460 has gone down. But the Ontario Liberals, even though their vote has gone up by about six or

00:20:08.980 seven percent, they're, they're not really picking up that many, that many new seats.

00:20:17.320 Yeah, smug Doug, exactly what I was saying. New blue would be a traction if the PCs were

00:20:22.420 conservative, but Ford is just fat Trudeau. Yes, and I love that nickname that Daniel Boardman created.

00:20:28.520 Thank you for the $50 super chat brute fun. Appreciate what you do. The election is doom

00:20:35.260 pilling, has been incredibly frustrating and tiresome cheers. And it is frustrating because

00:20:40.620 you do talk to people, and they will just say, well, I'm voting, I'm voting for because I don't

00:20:45.640 want the Liberals to win. It's like, honestly, what would actually change if Ford was swapped out

00:20:50.580 with Crombie? Literally nothing. In fact, depending on the issue, the Liberals are sometimes a little to

00:20:55.980 the right of Ford, and sometimes he's a little bit to the right of them. He just runs a retail party.

00:21:02.560 It's just retail politics. He gives money to constituents he wants to win. He spends a lot

00:21:07.640 of money while having some vaguely pro-business rhetoric. He subsidizes a lot of companies so

00:21:13.000 they like him. And he's been sucking up to the unions. He says he is as conservative as Jack 0.76

00:21:19.140 Layton was conservative, which is not very outside of his style. Like, that's the only thing that made

00:21:25.360 Jack Layton come off more conservative, is his cheesy Ted Turner mustache. To be fair, I do like

00:21:31.140 that mustache. It's a good mustache.

00:21:35.860 Mary Lou Cleveland with a $27.99 super chat. There was nothing attached to it, but Mary Lou Cleveland,

00:21:42.420 thank you for being a hero of the chat tonight and funding the National Telegraph. It's been fantastic

00:21:48.900 seeing, actually, the increase that's been going on. What can we do to get Hamilton Center to go

00:21:56.880 something other than orange? And I do agree with Counterpunch, which is following up on the topic of

00:22:03.740 Hamilton Center. Glad Sarah Jama did not get re-elected, so at least we didn't have an Islamist win. 1.00

00:22:08.680 Somewhere like Hamilton Center, maybe it never goes blue, or at least it takes quite a while.

00:22:15.440 I think to get people to stop voting left in a lot of those hardcore left ridings, you need what I

00:22:23.320 would say is an out-of-the-box candidate. And they don't need to be like, because there's this idea,

00:22:29.400 oh, the riding's more orange, so you have to run someone who's a very progressive conservative.

00:22:34.040 Why would people vote for a progressive conservative, not just a PC, but a very progressive

00:22:40.920 conservative, if they could vote for the real thing? Because if you're running as only slightly

00:22:48.340 to the right of a leftist candidate, you're basically saying, I think their fundamental take

00:22:52.760 on politics is mostly right, I just want to tinker around, in which you represent nothing. That's what

00:22:58.160 Aaron O'Toole's problem was. He represented nothing really that different. He is basically saying,

00:23:04.640 you know what, Justin Trudeau's on to some good stuff here, but give me the government, and I'll

00:23:09.520 tinker around a little bit. It's like nobody comes out and votes for something like that. The only

00:23:13.540 reason O'Toole still won the popular vote was because people hate Justin Trudeau. And so, but the

00:23:20.140 thing is, in a riding like Hamilton Center, just like Elizabeth May winning a former alliance riding as a 0.98

00:23:26.280 green candidate, I think what you need is an out-of-the-box, maybe even slightly eccentric

00:23:30.920 conservative, who is willing to go out there and be big and loud. And I don't mean that in terms of

00:23:36.840 literally loud, like in people's face, but get out there. You know, if there's an injection site in

00:23:41.960 the community that people hate, you are the anti-injection site guy. You're going to hit every

00:23:45.980 door and say that I'm, day one, going to get that injection site shut down. I'm going to increase the

00:23:52.300 police. I want police on every single street corner to crack down on crime. I want to stand

00:23:56.760 up for business owners, get all the homeless encampments off the streets. You would run hard 1.00

00:24:00.860 at that. But people would tell you who are in conventional wisdom circles say, well, don't do

00:24:07.220 that. That could offend a lot of people who are granola lefties, who don't want to hear bad things

00:24:11.980 about crime, and they don't want to hear that you're going to shut down the injection site. Yeah, 0.56

00:24:16.720 that's the majority. That's the profile of voter who is returning the incumbent into office or the

00:24:22.940 incumbent party into office. But if you want to activate the people who aren't voting, or who are

00:24:27.820 at least scattered among the other parties, you need a message that really is something big and

00:24:33.320 different, and it cracks through. I always tell you to people, if you're going to win, especially as an

00:24:37.780 outsider, you've got to run on something audacious. You've got to make people like sit around their

00:24:42.720 dining room table and be like, wow, did you hear what he said? It has to come up naturally, not

00:24:48.160 through just you injecting yourself into conversations that, hey, I'm a very slick-looking

00:24:53.300 businessman, and I'm going to do progressive-y things, but not as bad as they are. It's silly. 0.97

00:24:58.620 Stuttering Bob says fish and chips. I like fish and chips. It's a great, it's a great meal. 0.85

00:25:15.480 Voted New Blue Beaches Toronto? Heck yeah, you just voted for my boy Thomas, who actually is a

00:25:21.880 National Telegraph subscriber, and ended up running because he heard about the party on

00:25:28.680 the show. So it's great. Actually, I heard, yeah, yeah, I'm sorry, Josh, if you're right,

00:25:35.020 I mean Nepalese, because I think when I said I like Nepali restaurants, that's technically

00:25:38.540 referencing Italy. I mean Nepalese, like the country of Nepal. But yeah, the Himalayan's a

00:25:45.480 great restaurant in South Calgary.

00:25:48.080 Yeah.

00:25:51.880 Elijah Bukema, do you think the PCs will negatively affect the Federal Conservatives? That is a

00:26:02.020 fantastic question. No, I just think that people actually genuinely do see the Ontario

00:26:08.900 PC Party as being the opposite of the Federal Conservatives. By the way, the poly of Federal

00:26:15.660 Conservatives and the Doug Ford PCs hate each other, and it's mostly because Doug Ford isn't

00:26:21.020 a real conservative. So he resents the Federal Conservatives being more conservative than

00:26:25.380 him, because it makes him, rightfully so, look like a complete putz.

00:26:29.140 Thank you for the $10 super chat, David Edwards. Don't know if you covered this already, but

00:26:43.720 this really has been a who cares provincial election. We have a way bigger problem than

00:26:48.840 Fat Trudeau thinking he can stand up to Trump or pretend he has to. And yeah, the entire election

00:26:54.140 was predicated on a complete nonsense premise that Ford needed a new mandate in the snap

00:26:59.780 election because Trump exists. It was stupid. Everyone knew it was stupid. But maybe I can 1.00

00:27:06.240 bring up the global news election tracker. They do a good job on this map. I like it.

00:27:13.380 Let's kind of bounce around a little bit as we go here. Again, hey guys, let's give some props to

00:27:21.200 Bobby Ann Brady, who ended up absolutely smashing it in her riding and winning re-election as an

00:27:26.860 incumbent independent. 33,000 votes, 63.7% of the vote. And this proves if a lot of people could take

00:27:36.200 the blinders off and stop voting PC because it's the conservative option. Real conservatives like

00:27:43.020 Bobby Ann Brady have a strong appeal. Bobby Ann Brady, to be fair, is a unique politician who can 1.00

00:27:49.280 win as an independent. She had like $100,000 to run with. Everyone knew her from like a decade ago.

00:27:57.560 She'd been a campaign manager for tons of people. She had all of her own data. She even ran for the 1.00

00:28:01.940 nomination for the PC's and was kicked out. So people, a lot of people already knew who she was

00:28:07.440 well before she ran for as an independent. And then when she did it, she won again. 0.97

00:28:12.500 I would love it if she joined the new blue party. That would be great. I would even pitch it to her.

00:28:16.840 You can be the leader or maybe you can basically, yeah, you can be the leader. And then the president

00:28:21.080 of the party would be like Jim or Belinda Carajalios to do all the back and nitty gritty management. 0.90

00:28:27.060 I think she could turn herself into like the John Rustad of Ontario. Be the person who

00:28:31.920 ends up actually demonstrating what a new blue party government would be like from the

00:28:36.560 legislature by being able to speak out on issues. I think it would be great. But yeah.

00:28:46.020 Fijian said, Rip didn't win in my writing. Guess it's back to work tomorrow. And I see you mean

00:28:51.320 new blue by the yellow and blue dots. Again, and they were never going to win, obviously. The whole

00:28:57.980 point is for a new blue to maintain most of its vote from last election. So going forward,

00:29:03.260 they have the ability to data mine and they have the ability to basically gather more name

00:29:09.120 recognition, more support because it's all about that slow grind. Politics is not a sprint or a

00:29:16.420 cavalry charge. It is a slow grinding world war one style endurance, especially if you're a small

00:29:23.660 party. Running a small party is running like a small guerrilla warfare insurgency campaign where

00:29:30.280 you start off with 50 guys and you slowly take a neighborhood street by street, growing your

00:29:35.680 narrative, willing to lose some battles, but basically, you know, constantly turning around

00:29:40.520 the left flank, constantly moving, constantly letting people know you exist and making your case.

00:29:46.020 So yeah. Uh, we're saying Doug Ford rules.

00:29:55.480 I would tell you, Matthew, you should actually look, Doug Ford's politics are basically exactly

00:30:01.060 like those two women, Merit Stiles and Bonnie Crombie. Although Bonnie Crombie and Merit Stiles 0.84

00:30:07.420 literally look like the same person. So I give you that. Thank you for the $20 super chat, Rocky

00:30:18.180 Mountain Lady. I agree with public funded abortion. If it was for medical safety or grape, we already pay 1.00

00:30:25.400 BCPs. It's an individual's responsibility, not the country. And I, yeah, I agree with that. It's kind of 1.00

00:30:32.080 one of those things where people shouldn't have to pay for it. Same thing is made. It shouldn't be tax

00:30:37.860 fair funded if you want to off yourself, regardless really what the reason is. If it's a big deal, I don't

00:30:44.880 think it's that hard for you to scrape the money together. Yeah.

00:30:51.880 Balls wants us to know that everyone is a bunch of goons. Hopefully we all understand. 0.87

00:30:56.360 Third tooth identifies as a goon. I think he's done with the spam campsite. 0.99

00:31:11.420 Know what, Dustin? This is actually a very, very common story. You said, I used to vote MVP back in

00:31:17.480 my 20s. And in my early 30s, I then shifted my vote first green, and then PPC last federal election.

00:31:24.020 And this election, it's new blue. You would be shocked how actually common this is as a voter

00:31:33.560 history. A lot of young people vote for the very progressive NDP party. Then they shift green because

00:31:40.040 they, yeah, so you start off NDP. Then you shift green because you really get tired of all the

00:31:45.300 establishment nonsense within the NDP. And the green party, it doesn't matter that it's technically an

00:31:50.500 even more left party. A lot of people vote for it as like an anti-establishment stance. And then a lot

00:31:56.980 of those people who are anti-establishment during COVID, they're like, wow, all of these parties are

00:32:02.480 completely in league with all these medical associations wanting to lock us down. And a lot

00:32:09.320 of people then went PPC. And naturally, if you're PPC, you might end up voting new blue on a provincial

00:32:14.220 level. Lane Train says, Bonnie Crombie looks like every man's mother-in-law from hell. 1.00

00:32:31.760 Yeah. Look, I get there are technical differences, but progressive conservatives is like asking for

00:32:43.240 dry water. And you are right. The progressive conservatives have just fully embraced the

00:32:48.900 progressive part of their label. And they've rejected the conservative part. They were the

00:32:53.620 ones who put the box around Johnny McDonald statue on the lawn of Queens Park. And this is one of those

00:32:59.140 issues where the liberals are literally to the right of the PCs. They have to come out and

00:33:03.720 criticize Doug Ford for putting the box around Johnny McDonald. Doug Ford is more ashamed of Johnny

00:33:10.080 McDonald than Merit Stiles and Bonnie Crombie are. That's how stupid this is. 1.00

00:33:18.520 Oh, thank you, Mr. TB, for bringing this up. Thank you for the $10 super chat as well. In one of your 0.99

00:33:24.700 recent videos, you were about to give your opinion on Chantal Hubert, but you forgot and moved on.

00:33:29.860 That's very common for me to do. I'm sorry. She seems to be respected in the media, but her analysis

00:33:34.880 are often so skewed and insane. Well, she was the one early on when Polyev was the conservative leader

00:33:41.460 was writing these breathless articles about how, see, Canadians don't like him. Oh, look, he has a

00:33:47.080 negative approval rating. And it's like, yeah, he's been leader for like five seconds and the media has

00:33:51.860 only attacked him. Obviously, it's going to take him a little bit more time to gain like popularity.

00:33:57.400 Plus, in Canada, because the media is so default liberal, the opinion of many Canadians tends to be

00:34:03.880 very knee-jerk anti-conservative, even if a lot of Canadians are still willing to vote conservative.

00:34:09.220 And Chantal Hubert has been wrong about so much stuff, but she's respected in the media the same way

00:34:15.340 Andrew Coyne is. Effectively, they've been sitting in their chairs on those CBC panels so long that

00:34:22.020 they leave like a butt imprint. Chantal Hubert is constantly wrong, but never in doubt. And all of

00:34:29.580 her opinions are just boilerplate leftist stuff where you could have pulled any lefty off the street and

00:34:34.380 they would have given you the exact same opinion that, oh my goodness, Polyev said something that

00:34:39.260 sounds like Trump. He's really bringing the far-right populism into Canada. And she's just a 0.99

00:34:46.360 mouthpiece to try and roll people's marbles into the left-wing category by thinking, well, see, I can't

00:34:53.000 vote conservative because Chantal Hubert made some slightly negative noises about them.

00:35:00.680 You're really challenging me with this name, but thank you for the $13.99 super chat,

00:35:05.880 Valentin Pruskovsky. Is that how I say it? I hope it is, but I know that is Valentin at the start. Good

00:35:16.860 luck, smart guy. Well, thank you for that. BuzzAdvent says, Wyatt, have you seen the video that MCGA

00:35:27.420 posted the other day? I think you were referencing it as an election interference thing a little bit

00:35:32.500 above. I just didn't see it. I legitimately have not watched that.

00:35:39.340 Oh, someone's saying, anyone know if Crombie won her riding? Well, I should probably pull this back

00:35:44.000 up so we can go and check. So let's give a little, let's scoot a little bit here and see what's going

00:35:51.560 on. Okay, well, Etobicoke Lakeshore is going liberal. Is the liberal here the incumbent?

00:35:58.580 No, there's no incumbent. Man, that's going to be pathetic. If she, oh, wait, wait, oh, is it? Wait. 0.99

00:36:06.700 Okay, Cooksville hasn't been called yet. I actually hope Bonnie Crombie wins. Not because I like her in 1.00

00:36:13.880 any way, shape, or form. No, I do not. But Sylvia Galtieri is Patrick Brown's, like, mother-in-law,

00:36:21.000 and she and Patrick Brown are corrupt as the day is long, and I think that Crombie, I'd rather have

00:36:28.880 her win this than Patrick Brown gain more influence in this, in this, in this province.

00:36:37.420 DeHaas said voted New Blue in Richmond Hill. Let's go check out Richmond Hill. What's going on in

00:36:42.440 Richmond Hill? Let's see if I can find Richmond Hill, or I'm a complete idiot who doesn't know 1.00

00:36:47.740 where I'm going here. Richmond Hill, Richmond Hill, Thornhill, Richmond Hill. There we go. 0.99

00:36:58.540 Allison Bruns for the New Blue party ended up snagging 1.7% of the vote, so not too bad. 1.7's

00:37:06.680 fine in that GTA area. Honestly, I guarantee last time the New Blue person might have gotten less 1.00

00:37:12.060 than that because, again, it's so hard to market New Blue in the GTA area. That's actually why the

00:37:18.040 New Blues weren't that concerned that I think in half the GTA, or in half the Toronto area specifically,

00:37:23.860 they didn't have a candidate. It was like, they didn't really care too much because it was, you

00:37:27.940 know, it wasn't like they were going to rack up a lot of votes out there. Chris Winder says voted

00:37:32.660 for Jim Carhalios in Kitchener-Conestoga. Great. I was doing a lot of campaigning out there.

00:37:37.840 We were mostly just leafleting because, again, we were just trying to hit as many doors as possible

00:37:41.840 so people see the New Blue party name in front of their eyes at least once, even if they don't vote

00:37:46.960 for us. It's purely about bringing forward the name to people so that they'll consider it next time

00:37:54.320 and that we can gain data. Voted New Blue here in Niagara Center. Fantastic. Voted New Blue in Nickel Belt.

00:38:01.780 Thank you for the $27.99 super chat. Barb Ramsey. Keep up the good work, Wyatt. Hopefully, and I hope

00:38:08.740 that I don't ever get to the point where I'm just getting mediocre. Marco Perusa for the $2 super chat.

00:38:16.560 Still confident in a conservative federal majority? Yes, very confident. I just put out a video today

00:38:22.400 where I went over the votes in, not for votes, the polls that came out from Abacus Data. The big

00:38:29.680 takeaways are, one, federal conservatives are still 13% ahead of the liberals. And even with

00:38:36.800 Mark Carney as the stated leader, they'd only do a couple points better. So it would still be a

00:38:41.920 conservative majority. But the big problem for the federal liberals right now, if we are to assume

00:38:49.000 that Mark Carney becomes the new leader, is that his negative ratings are going up faster than his

00:38:54.580 positives. And I think that is no, in no small part, because of all of his flubs about fentanyl not

00:39:01.780 being a crisis, the Brooksfield scandal, his support for central bank digital currency, his support for

00:39:07.060 every green non piece of nonsense in existence. That's why. But yeah, that I think that, I think that 1.00

00:39:17.220 Mark Carney is just also somebody who, the lack of charisma is also going to catch up with him. That's one of

00:39:23.120 those things that's harder to pull. But you'll notice there's going to be a very big lack of real

00:39:28.740 organic enthusiasm that isn't just from like paid bots, basically from like, doctor, like that guy,

00:39:35.600 Dr. Matthew S. Johnson, just tweeting constantly about how inspiring Mark Carney is. If he's so

00:39:40.540 inspiring, you don't have to repeat it 50,000 times a day with no video reference of him actually

00:39:45.400 saying something. Carl Garrison voted new blue in Parkdale High Park, fantastic. Hooper Henrik,

00:39:52.240 I voted new blue in Thornhill. And by the way, guys, you should make sure you're on the new blue

00:39:57.060 email list if you can. That's always a good thing to be able to do just to keep in touch with them.

00:40:01.800 I would join their EDA so you can help them do a little bit of organizing here and there.

00:40:05.520 It's a very small time commitment.

00:40:09.440 I voted new blue in town of Smith Falls. So I am in Lenarck Frontenac. Let's see. I want to see

00:40:15.440 where that is. Let's see if we can find some of these places.

00:40:25.060 Lenarck Frontenac, Kingston. The new blue party got 1.5% of the vote. The Ontario party will do a

00:40:31.280 little bit better than them in certain areas where they ran a can. They put some emphasis

00:40:35.180 behind them. Plus, Ontario party, I think, is one of those names that gets more votes,

00:40:38.720 even if they don't know anything about it. What is there? Anything else going on here?

00:40:43.440 Canada Carlton. How's this one going? Out of pure curiosity. 1.1%. Eh, not great.

00:40:52.520 I would like to see how, again, I like to check on my gal, Rhonda Jubinville. Yeah, still 7.9%, 0.98

00:40:59.560 but again, oh, okay, that's fully done, I think. But 7.9% is extremely respectable.

00:41:04.700 What else do we got here? I'll look at Middlesex London had a great new blue candidate. Brian

00:41:09.840 Figueroa. He got 2.8% of the vote. Not too bad. 1,400 votes. And again, all these guys basically

00:41:16.180 only had like one week to actually run. They just had no time at all.

00:41:24.060 Cambridge. This is where Belinda Carajalios used to be the MP, so she got 4.6% of the vote,

00:41:29.100 but again, one, everything was completely snowed in, in Cambridge the entire time,

00:41:34.300 and her and Jim were basically busy trying to do as many media interviews to rep the party

00:41:39.540 province-wide, as well as the fact that they were doing a lot of back-end organizing stuff.

00:41:45.260 Program Merck says, did you see Kevin Vuong today with the Imam of Peace on CPAC? They were blasting

00:41:56.440 fake Islamophobia and targeting the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamism in Canada. I saw that he had done that.

00:42:01.420 I wasn't sure if it was something he did like a long time ago or recently, but I'll definitely watch

00:42:06.960 the entire thing now, now that I know that that's recent. I think that's great. I think he's a great MP.

00:42:13.260 Again, a lot of these independent guys do really, really good work, but yeah, good thing people are

00:42:20.060 voting for them in New Blue and Thornhill. Hey, thank you for the 279 Super Chat one-man turret

00:42:28.040 with the Imperial Japanese theme going on with your profile.

00:42:32.320 Okay, I'm trying to catch up a little bit.

00:42:39.120 Corey Austin says, I'm finding a number of conservative-minded people saying that they

00:42:49.220 want to vote for the PPC, but because they believe they will not win, I am just going to vote for the

00:42:53.880 conservative party. Federally, I don't even necessarily disagree with them doing that because

00:42:58.340 Polyev's version of the federal conservatives, because I get people voting PPC when O'Toole was

00:43:05.880 leader because he's awful. But with Polyev as the leader, I think PPC people would probably get 75%

00:43:12.880 of what they want. Yes, I think Polyev still needs to commit to lowering immigration even more than 0.98

00:43:18.780 what he has said. I think that he could be more socially conservative on certain issues. I think he

00:43:23.920 should be a little bit more hawkish on wanting to cut taxes other than the carbon tax. But overall,

00:43:29.660 you would be getting a substantial increase in terms of quality out of the government. And I think

00:43:36.660 the PPC just doesn't demonstrate that it's taking their donors' money seriously in the sense that

00:43:42.040 even Bernier, when he ran in Portage Lisgar in Manitoba, only showed up to campaign like 27 days

00:43:48.460 ahead of the time. That annoyed me. He just seemed to mail it in. He knew there was going to be a

00:43:53.620 by-election to replace Candace Bergen in that riding for months, and he basically shows up at the

00:43:57.800 last minute, just to put it in a good show. And that, again, is just one of those things I think

00:44:02.580 makes me not like the PPC. I don't care if your party only gets half a percent, but try. And I

00:44:08.920 think the PPC has learned that they don't have to try too hard, and people will keep donating.

00:44:17.660 Corey Austin says, thing is, there are so many saying this, that if they actually voted PPC,

00:44:22.160 they might actually have a chance. I honestly really doubt that. You will bump into a lot of people

00:44:27.780 who are willing to vote PPC because you might be more on the right, and you tend to bump into a lot of

00:44:32.460 those similar people. The vast majority of people, you will never hear them voicing a political opinion,

00:44:37.000 and they vote for a lot of default parties. That's not saying it's good to vote for default parties,

00:44:41.880 but I just don't think the PPC has that credibility. I think they even have decent name

00:44:48.140 recognition. I think that too often, they've shown themselves on social media to just be

00:44:54.240 rabble-rousers in the sense they want to say the big thing that gets a lot of attention,

00:44:58.000 but then they don't have a button-down professional sort of appearance to then help market that to get

00:45:05.600 it through. It's too often a party of activists, not of community leaders, and that's what I think

00:45:12.760 you want. That's why it was great the New Blue Party had city councillors running for them and

00:45:17.620 business owners. Those are people who usually speak very well, and they are very professional.

00:45:22.220 Not that you need to be milquetoast. I am definitely not like a milquetoast person,

00:45:27.640 but when I'm run for office, I talk in very soothing, calm tones. I'm telling them very

00:45:34.720 righty opinions that I have, but I can talk as if I'm center-left, even though I'm advocating for

00:45:39.960 harsh immigration reductions. I want an across-the-board tax cut. I want a parental bill of rights, 0.93

00:45:46.060 but I can just talk about it like this, and it's so much more useful. Where I found the PPC is very much

00:45:51.140 emotional intensity, is the brand of the party that a lot of people kind of don't like,

00:45:56.600 because it's so, like, people don't want to feel uncomfortable about politics. They want to vote for

00:46:01.220 a party that makes them feel stable, and it's like the PPC needs you at an emotional 11 out of 10,

00:46:06.160 and it's exhausting, and I think that's the problem for the PPC.

00:46:08.900 What's my observation of Premier Tim Houston in Nova Scotia? Well, I thought he was a major red Tory,

00:46:16.640 and I think he still is. I was impressed the other day. He actually announced that he was going to do,

00:46:20.860 like, big tax cuts. That kind of took me out of left field, so that was good to see.

00:46:27.320 CJR902, how is the PC party still alive? They weren't extinct federally in, like, the 90s. I think

00:46:40.720 you're confused, because we're talking about the provincial version of the party that's still very

00:46:44.560 much a massive force. What's your opinion on Vashi Kapelos? She's generally impressed me in terms of

00:46:52.760 her, I don't know, she asks good questions. She generally does pretty good stuff for CTV. 0.96

00:47:00.100 If everyone at CTV was more like her, I think the CTV would actually be doing better, but I think

00:47:06.940 most of the CTV shows are liberal talking heads and people who don't ask good questions, but

00:47:12.300 Vashi Kapelos does ask good questions sometimes. She's fundamentally still a lefty, so watch her swing

00:47:19.160 behind Mark Carney once he's the leader of the liberals and starts, you know, softening on her

00:47:23.940 want to ask him tough questions.

00:47:29.440 Hurt Chain says, hi, Wyatt. I've been enjoying your videos for a long time. Well, thanks you for doing

00:47:33.520 that, because it definitely actually helps me increase my reach if people become frequent viewers.

00:47:40.200 Someone's mentioning Mississauga-Cooksville again, so let's go check in on if anything's changed.

00:47:44.440 The funny thing is, places like Aaron Mills and stuff are starting to trend towards the

00:47:53.000 liberals, so I'm wondering if there's even enough votes left, though, for Bonnie Crombie 0.51

00:47:59.140 here to close the gap with Sylvia Gutierrez, because it's 43 right now to 46.6, with a 1,300-vote 0.97

00:48:08.500 gap, and it's already 57 to 64 polls having counted their votes, so I think at this point, 0.72

00:48:14.820 Crombie's actually completely dead, and man, how pathetic is that? 0.83

00:48:27.420 They called and Crombie lost. Some of them probably have actually been calling it, so yeah, I don't 0.93

00:48:34.620 doubt she's not going to be picking up. Miles says, why is Pierre orthodox conservative?

00:48:41.220 Did I say he was orthodox conservative before? I would say he's mostly conservative on the

00:48:45.480 issues. What I would say about the label orthodox conservative, and I refer to myself as that,

00:48:52.520 is like, across the board, socially, culturally, fiscally conservative, and I think generally,

00:48:57.660 Polyeth tends to be conservative in, like, an orthodox manner on, like, 70% of issues,

00:49:02.220 until you get to certain social issues, until you get to certain fiscal issues, and whatnot,

00:49:06.840 and that's more of just the remaining gap. Noah Cormier says, do you think the Liberals would

00:49:13.600 toll the 174? Honestly, probably not, because I think that the Ontario government brings in so

00:49:23.180 much money at this point, that there's really no more taxes to be raised. I think what any other

00:49:28.640 government would do between the NDP and the Liberals and the PCs would probably just be

00:49:33.360 shuffling around money, depending on what priorities they think are better or worse.

00:49:45.760 New blue, new market, love it.

00:49:50.260 Yeah, Bobby Ann Brady, congratulations on winning your seat. Bobby Ann Brady's fantastic,

00:49:54.660 and I hope she actually does some big stuff in politics soon. 1.00

00:49:59.920 How did the new blue party do in Perry Sound? Let's check it out.

00:50:07.020 Typed that in wrong.

00:50:17.880 Perry Sound, new blue party, had gotten...

00:50:20.660 Yeah, you guys saw me typing that in, I didn't think I had it on screen. They got 1.7% of the

00:50:25.440 vote with their candidate, Brandon Nixie, so not too bad. Again, and again, remember,

00:50:29.980 most of these people had about a week to campaign, and that was it.

00:50:36.620 I am in Hamilton Mountain, voted new blue. How did the candidate do? Let's check it out.

00:50:43.340 Remember, though, that Hamilton will probably be, like, the worst place for new blue. 0.99

00:50:46.660 So, Leia here got 1% of the vote. So, yeah, that's just how it goes for the new blue party 0.61

00:50:55.200 in somewhere like Hamilton. And the fact that the PCs are winning seats in Hamilton shows how

00:51:01.480 co-opted that party is becoming by labor unions. It's a trade unionist party, just like the NDP

00:51:06.920 is. It's a party that serves subsidized labor first. 0.74

00:51:22.160 Third tooth says, PPC served its purpose as a protest party against O'Toole. Time to ride into

00:51:27.080 the sunset. I don't even think it's time for them to ride into the sunset. I don't think it's ever a

00:51:31.520 time for a party to go away unless you were explicitly a pet issue party and the pet issue

00:51:37.340 was sort of over. And so my thing with the PPC is just they just don't try anymore. And I think that

00:51:44.440 it's kind of unforgivable to not try. So in Cambridge, because somebody asked, Belinda has

00:51:52.380 4.6% of the vote, 2,000 votes. And yeah, it's fifth place, but it's, you know, it's fine because,

00:51:58.020 again, New Blue was not able to campaign whatsoever because they were just scrambling

00:52:03.580 to get candidates that's on ballots and everything was completely frozen in. So the vast majority of

00:52:09.160 people who came out and voted were just default voters who have been voting for the same party

00:52:14.380 they voted for for decades. Subdog, no, the New Blue Party has a leadership problem. If we fix that,

00:52:26.340 maybe we can do something. I don't really think they have a leadership problem. Every time I hear

00:52:30.060 that, it's always from people who are not, who usually don't know the, don't know Jim Carajalios

00:52:36.520 very well. New Blue Party, so Kaboombra says, how much support does the New Blue Party have right now?

00:52:46.600 I would say probably provincially they're punching above 2% overall, and that's considering they didn't

00:52:51.800 even get to run in all ridings. Again, the point in an election right like this is not, did they win?

00:52:58.880 And not that that was what you were getting at, did they win or not? But it's that it's basically

00:53:05.440 just them maintaining their vote because this was a just snap election. They had no time to plan,

00:53:13.160 so they just need to maintain their base of support. They don't collapse and they only get 0.5% of the vote.

00:53:19.120 People are like, well, what was the point of that? And so that's what we kind of need out of this

00:53:23.100 election that New Blue maintains so that their EDA stay functional, so that the party in four years

00:53:29.500 by data mining, by putting themselves out there, by helping council candidates, by helping school

00:53:35.140 board trustees with their resources, can then keep building credibility. Again, if you actually look

00:53:40.640 at the record of the Green Party over the years that it ran, it basically looked even worse than the

00:53:45.820 New Blue Party did in terms of its support before it finally cracked through and won an election. So

00:53:51.180 maybe we'll even check that out.

00:53:57.300 I'll go to the Green Party of Canada. I want to see its election results.

00:54:00.800 So here are the election results for the Green Party of Canada. And it's not because

00:54:03.740 I like leftist parties, obviously. I don't care about... I don't want... I don't support leftist

00:54:12.580 parties, but it's just a good example that small parties have to start out small and kind of run

00:54:19.140 election after election, not really go anywhere until they finally hit a stride. They get a really

00:54:24.080 great opportunity to win. So in 1984, they got 0.21% of the vote.

00:54:29.760 Let's just give them that this was probably back when it was probably just a name and the party

00:54:37.280 wasn't even trying yet. But even into like 2000, they're getting like 0.81% of the vote, but they

00:54:44.240 keep increasing. And then they get 4.32 and 4.48 and 6.78. But they even fall down. And the funny

00:54:51.160 thing is in 2011, when Elizabeth May finally wins her seat, they actually lost support because they

00:54:56.300 stopped injecting all their resources into just trying to feel... they just stopped trying to just

00:55:01.620 dump money into every riding, and they concentrated to make sure that they would win. And so they fell

00:55:07.180 in their votes, almost half. They almost lost half of their vote. But they focused in Elizabeth May's

00:55:13.920 riding, and they won, and they built credibility, and eventually they were able to win three ridings.

00:55:18.760 And in 21, they fell again, but that had more to do with the fact that the party is

00:55:23.120 so anti-Semitic, they couldn't handle having a Jewish lady as the leader. That's literally what 1.00

00:55:29.160 it was all about.

00:55:36.120 Justin D., if the New Blue Party was to run federally in all federal ridings, what is New

00:55:40.800 Blue's chances to take a seat in every province and territory? Well, it'd be zero because... 0.94

00:55:44.640 And the New Blue Party isn't attempting to run federally, to be fair.

00:55:47.660 And that's my point. Zach Olett says, BC Conservative Party before 2024 got like 2% of the vote. And they

00:55:57.040 even had that Conservative Party label going for them. A lot of people probably stumble into the

00:56:03.540 voting booth and just select BC Conservative because I like the Conservatives even if it's not even a real

00:56:09.200 party back in 2020. I like this. Rose Overdose says, I like Wyatt, but I can't tell if he's 12 or 40 years

00:56:19.200 old. I know a lot of people can't do that, and that's my secret. No, I'm 25.

00:56:26.480 Lynn Brooks says, Wyatt, have you been involved with politics for a long time?

00:56:30.580 Well, if we're talking about since I bought a party membership, I guess I bought a party membership

00:56:34.620 when I was 14 years old for the Wild Rose Party in Alberta. But in terms of being actively involved

00:56:41.680 in politics, in 2017, I became like the vice president and then later the president of the

00:56:48.300 Mount Royal University Conservatives. And then I became a writer for the Postmillennial in 2019.

00:56:53.540 And then in 2020, I started the National Telegraph as a written publication. And then I started...

00:56:59.620 And then from there, I've helped campaigns. I would work on campaigns. I ran for, you know,

00:57:06.240 as many people know, I ran for Calgary Signal Hill's federal conservative nomination.

00:57:10.680 I would have won, but I was kicked out for basically no reason because an insider was trying to help

00:57:15.220 their friend win, or an ally at least, and maybe one of their friend's allies. I made sure that person

00:57:21.080 still lost because, no, you don't get to kick me over a race and install your guy. So I made sure

00:57:26.420 somebody else won. But I had like a thousand supporters, which is very, very good for a

00:57:32.200 nomination. And I didn't even have the official list. So I'm basing off of my estimates of my

00:57:37.220 supporters based on only people I had the contact information for. And I had a good idea that they

00:57:43.580 did in fact sign up to vote for me. So I did pretty well in that, got kicked out. I then got hired on as

00:57:50.540 a campaign manager and organizer generally for the BC conservatives. I helped them win a bunch of

00:57:56.540 extra seats. Since then, I helped the new blue party out. I helped the federal party. I helped

00:58:01.440 federal nomination candidates. I'm going to BC tomorrow to go and help at the, not help, but I'm

00:58:09.000 going to be at the BC conservative AGM. So if you're a delegate in BC, in Nanaimo, say hi, I'll be in

00:58:16.200 the room. That will be fun. But yeah, I just try and involve myself in everything. And so like, I'm not

00:58:21.760 like a small party guy where I'm like, you're not pure enough for me. I'm going to go start my own

00:58:26.640 party with, you know, with, with booze and poker or whatever. I just like, I will support and even

00:58:33.740 help grow a small party if the need is there, but I'm not the type of guy saying, hmm, Polly doesn't hit

00:58:39.900 all 10 of my points that I need him to hit. I'm leaving. And so I like the federal conservatives

00:58:45.620 generally, I don't like certain insiders who messed with me, but they're not 99% of the people in the

00:58:51.180 party who are absolutely fine to me. They are people in inflated positions who ended up using

00:58:56.400 their position of power to kick me out, knowing that most people are going to think, well, it might

00:59:00.760 be too contentious for us to avenge Wyatt by kicking them out. So it's one of those things.

00:59:06.520 But yeah, so I've been around for a while doing stuff. I try and help on the ground as much as I can,

00:59:11.880 because I hate when commentators, when guys who sit on YouTube never help in real life. All they do

00:59:18.520 is the YouTube stuff. And that's fine. Do YouTube. But I hate when people pontificate on politics on

00:59:24.140 how people should vote and how elections work and how polling works. And they've never hit a door in

00:59:30.440 their life. They've never talked to an average voter. Yeah. Patricia, you are only 25. So well

00:59:41.280 spoken and so much experience and knowledge already. I have a, you have a promising future. And I'm so

00:59:46.160 glad I found your channel. Well, thank you, Patricia. And the funny thing is, I used to be a nervous wreck

00:59:51.440 when I was talking in front of any crowd, or even on camera. If you guys want to see something

00:59:56.920 embarrassing, you can go to my channel, like go to the main channel later, and you can hit my oldest

01:00:02.580 videos, watch some of my oldest videos, not the interviews, I'm more comfortable in those

01:00:06.780 interviews, because I'm just like chatting with a couple people. But some of my first standalone

01:00:11.560 videos, even though they were edited, and I could just use my best take, you could physically see me

01:00:17.660 shaking, because I was so unused to putting one foot in front of the other to get my words out.

01:00:22.160 I would honestly, if you guys have kids who are trying to learn how to speak publicly, it has

01:00:28.980 nothing to do oftentimes with crowd fright. That's what people blame it on. And it's not about exposure

01:00:34.420 therapy, you just need to do it enough times. No, no, no, have them record themselves talking about

01:00:39.640 something for 15 minutes out loud without messing up. If you can, and it might take you dozens and

01:00:45.940 dozens and hundreds of tries. But if you can feel confident that every time you say a word, you know,

01:00:51.040 the next word you're about to say, it takes away all the fear of talking. Because most of the terror

01:00:56.560 of talking is that you are going to get lost in your thoughts, you're not going to know what to say, 1.00

01:01:01.980 and you're going to look like an idiot, because you kind of would look like an idiot to do that. 1.00

01:01:05.620 But in your own mind, if out loud in your own house, you can even talk through a topic 1.00

01:01:11.200 without repeating yourself without circling back and constantly saying the other thing,

01:01:15.280 you will be so much better. Yeah.

01:01:19.860 So that's a, you know, that's my dissertation on that.

01:01:31.060 New blue party needs to become a full time party if it wants to win anything. I wasn't impressed

01:01:35.480 with her local candidate. Kara Halios was particularly invisible in this election. I like and I know Jim

01:01:40.820 and he has a good reason to be invisible because he was having to do all the work. He was actually

01:01:46.240 running around acting as the party's lawyer, because elections Ontario people were using

01:01:51.900 nonsensical reasons to try and block new blue party candidates. So he would have to get on the

01:01:56.820 phone with election officials at the Ontario election HQ or even file basically legal letters

01:02:03.200 to get them to back off. So he's been doing a lot of good stuff back there. I do agree with you,

01:02:08.740 they have to become a full time party. And I think that they were actually just starting to get moving

01:02:14.320 so that if the election was in 2026, like it was supposed to be, they would have a good year and a

01:02:20.180 half of starting to have leafleted doors in the spring and starting to get people talking about

01:02:24.940 them again and doing more podcasts. It's just that Jim does not take a salary from the party.

01:02:30.780 Bernier takes $114,000 a year from the PPC to frankly not do very much. Jim takes not a penny

01:02:38.400 from the party. He works as a lawyer and he makes his own money and then he has to do the party as

01:02:42.920 a side thing. And also they had like a kid who was like three or two. So they all also didn't have

01:02:49.280 time because of all that. And once your kid becomes like six and seven, you can do more stuff.

01:02:55.600 So yeah, and I'm going to be helping them now and helping them grow their base and helping them get

01:03:00.300 more attention. I actually, I've been playing with the idea of doing a weekly podcast with Jim,

01:03:06.260 not on this channel, but on an Ontario only specific channel. Cause you should kind of

01:03:11.320 YouTube theory here. You want to kind of compartmentalize your content. There is a

01:03:16.800 reason I do not talk about American politics on this channel. Cause if I start talking about

01:03:22.060 American stuff, I find American stuff interesting, but one, I already think people like Ben Shapiro.

01:03:27.660 And even though I don't always like his takes, Tim Pool and people, other people, Richard Barris,

01:03:32.980 they already do a good, good enough job dissecting American politics. Why should I add my Canadian

01:03:38.500 voice in it for no reason? But also the real reason you don't want to start talking about

01:03:42.500 American stuff is your audience becomes very confused about your content. Cause you onboard

01:03:47.800 like 10,000 Americans. And so a good fifth of your audience, every time you upload a Canadian

01:03:53.640 video, they're like, what the heck is this? I don't want to watch something about Alberta.

01:03:56.940 And so then they start not watching anything. And YouTube's like, Ooh, your audience hates your

01:04:01.220 videos. And then they plow into the side of a mountain. Horseplay says, why do we have a Senate?

01:04:07.680 I don't know. Somebody, somebody decided to curse Canada in our formation.

01:04:11.920 Yeah, that's a good point to Adam Gibson. Why? I believe it's fluency. I started reading books

01:04:27.420 out loud for years now, and it's helped exercise the speaking muscles. Yeah. Cause I think people

01:04:32.620 get so unused to hearing themselves speak out loud, unless they're talking to like a friend

01:04:38.260 in which you can never be embarrassed around a friend, really. So you can say whatever you want,

01:04:42.200 you can mess up, you can kind of be stumbly. But once you're in like a business meeting,

01:04:45.820 or you're reading a book out loud, even if you're alone, you kind of feel silly to not speak

01:04:51.480 fluently. So if you do things that force you to speak fluently, that makes you so much more

01:04:55.840 confident to walk into a meeting and just start listing off what you think. Because, and this is

01:05:00.380 a great piece of advice I got from a Ken Burns documentary about the Roosevelt's when, what is his

01:05:07.120 name? I'm trying to look up FDR's chief of staff, Louie Howe, his original chief of staff. Louie Howe

01:05:18.300 had a great piece of advice for Eleanor Roosevelt when she was extremely nervous about speaking in

01:05:23.440 front of people. And so like, incredibly, like she was very scared of speaking in front of crowds of

01:05:30.780 people. So Louie Howe's advice was just stand up, say what you're going to say, then sit back down.

01:05:35.660 And that's basically what you have to know, is that when you're speaking in front of people,

01:05:39.540 you're just doing a job, you're just getting the 100 words that you had to say out. You know,

01:05:44.020 here's my question in a town meeting. What do you think about this? Sit back down. It doesn't need

01:05:47.860 to be poetic. Just say what you're going to say. Cole 404 says, my parents are afraid that New Blue is

01:05:57.380 going to be another reform and give the liberals an undeserved win. Well, one, I would say that I would

01:06:03.860 agree. I wouldn't want to split the vote and let the liberals win if it wasn't for the fact that PCs

01:06:09.640 are not giving me any reason that that the liberals would be worse than them. That's what you'd have to

01:06:15.160 say to them. It's not that like I wouldn't go on a diatribe, but I would just say it's just that

01:06:21.680 I can't tell you a difference between Ford and Crombie. And when the PC party gets lost down a liberal

01:06:27.740 rabbit hole, eventually you got to send something in like the New Blue party down there to chase 0.99

01:06:32.800 them. You know, because even if the New Blue party doesn't win, it can kind of push the PCs back to

01:06:39.140 the right. And if they keep going left, well, maybe eventually the New Blue party will have to win 0.57

01:06:43.560 seats to force them back to the right in the legislature.

01:06:47.060 The fixer says, yeah, in my writing, the New Blue party had a candidate listed a few weeks ago,

01:06:57.620 but they got dropped from the list about a week ago. And I know who you're talking about.

01:07:02.540 That was a candidate who was just basically making excuses not to campaign and being extremely

01:07:08.300 difficult. And then they were like, not wanting to back out. And then eventually the party was like,

01:07:13.780 okay, you're just not the candidate if you're not willing to even meet us halfway in terms of

01:07:18.360 effort. And so then they had to have somebody else become the candidate.

01:07:26.120 Wyatt, thoughts on New Blue, position on abortion, a very hot potato politically in Canada,

01:07:30.820 but pro-choice folks are unlikely to vote for a pro-life party, even if they like the rest of

01:07:35.120 policies. My thing is most people are not going to not vote for you because you're pro-life,

01:07:40.460 even if you're pro-choice. And the New Blue party isn't like a full ban party. Most people just don't

01:07:46.880 want a full ban. But most people also, when you pitch the idea that isn't it kind of bad that we

01:07:52.600 have no restrictions, they'll generally agree. If you have a big platform, people will mostly vote

01:07:58.900 for the things they like. They won't really abandon you because they don't like a couple of things they

01:08:03.360 don't like. And you have to remember about 25% of Canadians, and it's going to be higher in places 0.60

01:08:08.880 like Ontario because it's super low in places like Quebec. Most Canadians, 25% of Canadians are

01:08:15.000 fully pro-life. And then probably another 25% to 40% are somewhat pro-life. Pro-choicers will say

01:08:21.980 they're somewhat pro-choice, and that's kind of the push and pull. The pro-choice organizations will say,

01:08:27.240 you know that 80% of Canadians are somewhat pro-choice? I'm like, well, that statistic is the

01:08:31.760 exact same the other way. And I think that there's literally nothing lost by being the pro-life

01:08:37.540 party because nobody's the pro-life party. So why abandon that 25%? The NDP and the liberals also

01:08:43.760 have positions that alienate a lot of people. The conservatives even have positions that alienate

01:08:48.080 people on certain issues. But you can't be worried about who you're alienating. You just have to be

01:08:52.500 worried about who you're winning. Obviously, be concerned about alienating people if you're

01:08:56.400 actually running on something blatantly insane, you know, like if you're like a flat-out conspiracy

01:09:01.440 theory party or you're like, you know, like a Hamas party or whatever. But like, it's a great

01:09:07.940 William Tecumseh Sherman line about Ulysses S. Grant that what he had over everybody is that he wasn't

01:09:13.840 afraid of what the enemy was doing outside of his sight. And I think that you can't be concerned about

01:09:19.020 all the negative things people think about you. You just have to be concerned about making them like

01:09:23.780 you. Not concerned about, you know, like I'm kind of saying the same thing, but it's a little bit

01:09:30.600 different. Go out there trying to win a vote. Don't go out there trying to not lose a vote. Just

01:09:35.360 trying to win a vote.

01:09:45.020 T Lin for $10. Thank you for the $10 super chat. What do you consider running CPC again? Definitely.

01:09:51.580 I would definitely consider running conservative again. I'm kind of almost waiting to see people

01:09:57.180 come around to my line of thinking within the party HQ that you can't kick candidates in the face

01:10:03.560 and rig nominations because that literally is happening. Dozens of nominations have not been

01:10:08.780 up to snuff. Candidates who are great candidates with no reason to kick them out have been kicked out

01:10:14.060 basically in favor of what is a weaker candidate? Yes, a glass of water with running under their

01:10:19.820 conservative label would win in Signal Hill. But in other ridings where it's a swing riding,

01:10:27.420 the party has frankly let a lesser candidate run simply because HQ favored them. And it's like,

01:10:33.280 you can't do that. You're going to lose because all of your best people who are usually your best

01:10:39.240 candidate, your best volunteers, your best donors are just going to say, why am I going to help you

01:10:44.640 guys win when you won't respect the guy we want to be the candidate? Why am I going to help you if I

01:10:49.480 tried to run? Like if I ran, I'll probably help the guy in my riding because he's at least better

01:10:55.780 than the guy I helped avoid winning. But why in a certain sense, if I'm an average person, why would

01:11:01.980 I want to help the party when they, you know, screwed me? And that's one of those things. It's like,

01:11:07.240 you're going to lose some of your best people. And the things I think a lot of candidates,

01:11:10.740 if they lost fair and square, they'd be like, I lost fair and square and I'm going to help the guy

01:11:14.060 that won. But now they have all this, the party is creating drama, but then they will blame you

01:11:20.300 for bringing up drama, even though they're the ones creating it. It's what you call the harassment

01:11:26.020 tactic DARVO. It is distract, attack, and then reverse the roles of oppressor and oppressed or

01:11:34.020 victimizer or whatever. And victim that you are going out there and basically pretending that the

01:11:42.300 people who speak up about bad nomination practices are the ones who are creating division.

01:11:48.540 When in fact, you are saying, hey, let's stop dividing people by kicking them in the face.

01:11:54.120 I agree, Jake, you, Northern Perspective is very good. They're very good at the deep dives on

01:11:59.040 legislation and different scandals. I think they really do serve a good,

01:12:02.640 they do serve a good niche in that way.

01:12:10.880 CJR902, I'm glad I found Wyatt since True North fired all of its best people.

01:12:16.320 Yeah, I'm not sure what happened there. Obviously, they've renamed themselves to Juno News.

01:12:20.500 You never know. And it's like, to be fair, when you say they fired their best people,

01:12:24.400 you'd never know if the model before was just not making money and they kind of had to clear

01:12:29.640 salaries. So I always, you know, let's see how that shakes out in time and see what happens.

01:12:34.440 Maybe some of them get their jobs back once everything consolidates.

01:12:38.720 Patricia, thank you for the $13.99 super chat. That's really helpful to me,

01:12:43.260 especially because I have to travel tomorrow. Guys, I'm going to admit, I'm stupid and I booked 0.97

01:12:47.580 my flight late. So I had to eat a bigger cost than I thought getting to Nanaimo because I'm like, 0.93

01:12:53.040 after I'm back from Kitchener or Cambridge, that's when I'll book my flight. Stupid move on my part, 0.99

01:12:59.220 because that's when flights get super expensive when you're just leaving in the next few days. 0.98

01:13:08.280 Sorry, I'm trying to find.

01:13:09.600 D. Ben BC says, abortion has been settled in Canada. Decide for yourself. To be fair,

01:13:28.380 it literally hasn't been settled. All the Supreme Court said was that the legislature, like Parliament,

01:13:33.500 has to come up with a new restriction because they just struck down the restriction that you have to

01:13:37.900 get like a certain amount of doctors and a panel to approve it if you want to get one. So it was,

01:13:44.240 we had very strict standards and then they wiped out the standard saying, come up with a new one.

01:13:48.780 And it's just that nobody's ever passed a new standard. That is, so it's literally not a standard.

01:13:53.260 We just have no standards at this point. That's the problem.

01:13:55.720 Oh, hey, by the way, guys, if you live anywhere, I was going to say, if you live in Canada,

01:14:07.820 of course you guys live in Canada. It's just a natural reaction. I'm just putting down my link 0.88

01:14:12.380 for my website if you guys want to sign up and join the list, because what I like to do is I'm trying

01:14:17.000 to gain as much data as possible. And I'm being so mad about this. I'm not saying sign this petition

01:14:22.320 to say Justin Trudeau sucks. I'm not doing any of that. I just have a list if you guys want to sign 0.99

01:14:26.300 up to it. I just want to have the ability for certain postal codes that I can basically go and

01:14:33.360 if there's a great candidate in a nomination in different parts of the country, I can say,

01:14:38.080 hey, look, I have 15 households of people that live in that riding who I know. I'm going to call

01:14:44.100 them and recommend the most conservative, best possible candidate I can give them. I generally will

01:14:49.920 always recommend the most conservative guy. With the added, like with the additive, are they

01:14:55.480 competent? Are they winning? They're not just saying I'm very conservative and they're not

01:14:59.560 working hard. If they work hard and they're very conservative, I want that guy in. And so if you

01:15:04.180 guys want to sign up on the website, that's there if you want to put in your information. But

01:15:08.920 explicitly, it's just so I can give you guys good recommendations for local races or leaderships.

01:15:14.900 If you live in Winnipeg, make sure or in Manitoba, I'm not sure if the membership is closed, but make

01:15:21.280 sure to vote for Wally Daldrich in Manitoba for the PCE leadership. He's very good. If you're in

01:15:27.440 Abbotsford South Langley, Steve Schaefer is a great number one in that riding for a number one federal

01:15:33.640 conservative nomination candidate. In Willowdale, Jeff Yang is very good. There's some other people around

01:15:40.360 Richmond Mariupol. I believe it's this Sheldon guy who's running who looks pretty good. It might not be

01:15:46.860 Mariupol, though. I have to go look it up. But yeah, that's the way I kind of want to do it, that I can

01:15:52.160 kind of email people or give them a call in that riding and saying, hey, there's a great person. It's

01:15:56.320 kind of like that thing Charlie Kirk does, freedom at charliekirk.com for their email service and their

01:16:03.840 sign-up sheets. Noah Comier says, do you think it's possible for whomever becomes the federal

01:16:11.460 conservative candidate to win in Orleans if there's good enough and they try hard enough?

01:16:16.420 Let's look it up. I'm going to look up 338 just to see what things are looking like. Okay. Okay,

01:16:27.460 I'm going to disappoint you here, Noah. It doesn't look like it. From what 338 is showing,

01:16:35.740 Orleans would go 52% liberal, 32% conservative. But maybe the percentages have gone up because,

01:16:43.720 look, when Trudeau resigned, the conservatives ahead. Maybe this is just the over-polling by

01:16:48.440 places like Leger and Nanos. And once the polling cools down and things start going back to what

01:16:53.980 Abacus and Innovation are saying, maybe it could tighten up enough because I guess they're not

01:16:59.600 that far away. If this gap closes a bit, there's going to become a chance that the

01:17:05.160 conservative, if they have good turnout, ends up winning. But yeah, so I'll drop my website link in

01:17:12.980 there again in case you don't see that. Lane Train, do you think conservatives will hold Toronto

01:17:18.580 St. Paul? I'd probably give it a 50-50. Uh, AT Lynn just signed up. Fantastic. Yeah, and you might not

01:17:33.500 even ever get an email or phone call from me ever. You might literally never have me contact you because

01:17:38.740 maybe there's an incumbent in your area who's both good and never resigns. And so there's never a point

01:17:44.120 to do it. Um, but that's just so I can mention it to people. And maybe one day I move to a different

01:17:49.980 riding and I live there and then I run for the nomination and I immediately have like 35 households

01:17:56.000 who I can count on to show up. So, you know, that's, that's my very nakedly selfish reason for

01:18:02.340 that. Not that it's only for me, but I want to help really good people around the country because,

01:18:07.080 you know, it's not just about getting a conservative government in, it's getting a conservative

01:18:11.120 government of the right people in. Um, oh, uh, the AJ, why are you asking for the entire home

01:18:25.740 address on your link? It's because you have to be very specific when it comes to which area you're

01:18:31.840 in, which area you're not in. Because if I, because I have postal code there, you can even choose, I

01:18:36.360 believe, to not type in the full thing. You can do alternative versions, but street address is great

01:18:41.560 because if you send like a volunteer down there to put a leaflet in your door so they can give you

01:18:45.900 something, it's great to know the house number. And then if you're trying to find out which riding

01:18:50.580 somebody is in, postal code really helps because the full postal code lets you know which side of

01:18:56.440 the street somebody is on because everything gets very nitty gritty. Like if you ever get on a

01:19:01.400 campaign, especially a nomination campaign, data quality really comes into play. You can have every

01:19:08.540 email on the planet and it doesn't mean anything because nobody knows where these people are.

01:19:13.380 You can even know like street address, but you're going to have to send a lot of people down streets

01:19:19.200 that aren't in the riding to figure out that they aren't there. Or you have to type in the street

01:19:23.480 address. Google will tell you the postal code. Then you look up if that postal code is in the riding and

01:19:28.120 it's extremely obnoxious. So it's about the ability to quickly be able to reach out to people or

01:19:33.500 it's like pushing your finger into a nail. It's the most unpleasant task ever trying to make the

01:19:40.200 data actually mean anything. Up north off leash. Thank you for the 1399 super chat. Best serious

01:19:50.000 political analysis in Canada. Well, thank you for that. And the humor. Nice to not have blood pressure

01:19:55.760 raised with sensationalism. And I don't like when people because it's fine to say, hey, is Trudeau

01:20:02.580 going to resign in a thumbnail if there's a news out that would truly indicate he might get thrown

01:20:07.620 out. But there are people who every single day that Trudeau is going to resign or or now they're

01:20:13.460 doing the whole Mark Carney is surging and the liberals are now ahead because it gets clicks, 0.99

01:20:18.220 even though they're almost intentionally being stupid, intentionally not understanding politics. 0.98

01:20:23.360 Some of the people do that where they're like, shock gasp, the liberals are surging. It's like, 1.00

01:20:29.220 read the polls. Do you really think the liberals are at 37% in Alberta? I'm pretty sure it's just a

01:20:35.960 bad poll because there's too many liberal hardcores answering from the downtown core area.

01:20:41.940 Hmm. What's your opinion, Earl Dreeshan, Red Deer area? Well, yeah, he's not running again. So I

01:20:53.520 guess I should look into who's running to replace him in Red Deer. Earl Dreeshan was a good overall

01:20:59.800 social and fiscal conservative. And of course, he has a good he has that son, Devin Dreeshan.

01:21:05.020 Yes, there you go. Campsite Zed immediately jumping onto one of the people I'm mentioning.

01:21:11.080 Actually, you weren't even the first to say it. Sunshine is 100% clickbait. 0.99

01:21:17.320 Arto Music Production says Mr. Sunshine baby is worse for clickbait. And again, I'm not even I'm I

01:21:24.660 can't watch Mr. Sunshine anymore. He's so fake. And the thing is, I'm not I'm not shy to even say it

01:21:29.500 myself. Because I hate how much some people end up almost intentionally making people dumber. 0.97

01:21:38.180 Because if you listen to some YouTubers, they will make you not understand politics, 0.62

01:21:41.900 because either it's a cheerleader channel, or it's pure sensationalism. And it's not like I'm

01:21:48.180 doing deep analysis. And every before every video, I've read a new book, and I'm here to tell you about

01:21:53.120 it. It's more so here's a calm and rational way of viewing this development. And it might already be

01:22:00.620 80% of what you thought it was going to be maybe even 100%. But it's great. And this is why I like

01:22:06.000 certain people's podcasts. Chris, the great Canadian bagel, he does a great polling channel, he does

01:22:11.880 great videos. And the great Canadian bagel, he does a really good job, like calmly explaining polls.

01:22:19.280 And I hope that from what I do, on both polling, when I do it, and from other political developments,

01:22:24.800 I am just keeping it very easy to understand, and almost helping you digest probably what you

01:22:30.240 already thought. But hey, hearing someone else say it, so you're like, that's a good way of putting

01:22:34.520 that. That's mostly like why like Ben Shapiro was popular. It's not like Ben Shapiro was saying things

01:22:39.780 that people were like blew their minds, they didn't know it. What was the stuff he was saying? Everyone

01:22:44.000 already knew, but they're like, you know, that's a good way of putting it to my liberal uncle. But yeah.

01:22:49.280 And yeah, you're right, campsite Zed here, like a lot of people who gain a lot of subscribers,

01:23:05.400 will keep gaining a lot of subscribers just because the channel's already big. Even if when you actually

01:23:11.040 look at their view counts, and their retention rates compared to their subscriptions, it's actually

01:23:17.300 out of line, they actually severely underperform, but they can get 90,000 views or 70,000 views on any

01:23:23.000 video, because they're really big. But when you look at their sub count, they're like, this person

01:23:27.860 has like 450,000 subs, how are they only getting like 50,000 views? And it's like, because not their

01:23:33.220 audience looks at their videos, they're like, okay, he's probably making that up.

01:23:39.060 11.8 podcast, any opinion on the 11.8 podcast, boys? I just genuinely have never really watched them.

01:23:44.800 So I just don't know. Thank you for signing up there, Michael Siraca.

01:23:51.780 Another good person I'll actually recommend in Skyview at this point. I don't know who else is

01:23:59.000 running. And I was helping a guy previously, and maybe I will come back and endorse him again later.

01:24:04.980 But I'm just not sure if he really stuck it out. But a really good candidate you could buy a

01:24:11.720 membership for if you're in Calgary Skyview, at least for the moment, would be Josephine Pond.

01:24:18.180 Josephine Pond used to be a UCPM LA. She's generally pretty good. I would go for her at the moment. 1.00

01:24:23.940 There's about eight or nine candidates. And me saying at the moment isn't supposed to be a dig at her.

01:24:30.140 It's just more so I just don't know who else is running. So that's just my preliminary opinion. So, yeah.

01:24:38.380 Tyler K, I really like John Bolton. He's a smaller YouTuber, but he's great insider. Are you talking about the

01:24:43.040 former defense advisor?

01:24:44.320 I don't think that's who you're talking about. Because, like, you know, I think everyone knows

01:24:49.720 who John Bolton is. And I don't think that John Bolton become a YouTuber recently.

01:24:55.720 Prentselface says, what are your thoughts on the Bow River candidate nominees? Well, I literally just

01:25:00.640 got back today from helping out David Bexty. I think David Bexty is a great candidate. There's this guy

01:25:06.180 who's running at the riding who literally lives in Gatineau, Quebec. It's like some party staffer who's

01:25:11.940 trying to helicopter himself into the riding. I think he even lives in the riding. Like, he used

01:25:16.300 to live there. He maybe grew up there. But he doesn't live there anymore. And he's never going

01:25:20.060 to buy a residency in the riding unless he wins. And I always find that annoying. I don't need you

01:25:25.720 to live in a riding to represent it. That's not my, like, requirement. It's not like a base

01:25:31.760 requirement. If you're the more conservative, better candidate, I don't care if you live in

01:25:36.160 Tuktoyuktuk and you're running in my riding if you're better than some watery red Tory who's not 1.00

01:25:41.180 going to do anything for anybody. But if you're already a fairly meh candidate who's just a party

01:25:46.460 guy who's just going to say what the party wants and basically do nothing else, just sit in the

01:25:50.580 back benches, and you don't live in the riding, like, goodness, that's a bit of an insult.

01:25:59.240 Boba Fett said, I thought I was subscribed. My bad. Well, good, because we need to get to that

01:26:03.080 100,000 by December. Or dang it, my friends are going to get a very big meal on me. I actually

01:26:09.940 don't even mind if I lose. I honestly made this stupid bet. It's not like they bet me. I bet them 1.00

01:26:14.780 I could get to 100,000 or I would buy them dinner. And the only thing I get if I get to 100,000 is

01:26:21.380 they buy me dinner and that's it. Not like they owe me five dinners. I owe all five of them or four of

01:26:27.660 them dinner or they just owe me dinner. I mostly did it to scare myself into trying hard. But I don't

01:26:33.960 mind if I lose because I'll probably have helped spur myself to doing more.

01:26:41.420 The Great Dominion. Yes, Viva Fry would be wise to shut up about Canadian politics going forward. 1.00

01:26:46.320 The guy has been in Florida for so long, he legitimately doesn't know what he's talking

01:26:51.000 about anymore. He'll just, like, attack Polyev for the stupidest garbage I've ever seen. Because 1.00

01:26:57.220 he needs to feel like he's like, you know, see, I'm right. The conservatives are fake. I'm like, 0.98

01:27:03.800 I know you ran for the PPC in 21 and now your opinion is the conservatives suck and the PPC is 0.98

01:27:08.520 great. But he attacked, like, the conservatives for saying, yeah, it's bad that Russia invaded Ukraine 0.74

01:27:14.740 and maybe they shouldn't be added on to the G7 quite yet. That's a very, like, rational opinion to

01:27:21.340 have. Even the Trump administration doesn't want Russia back on the G7. They've kind of mentioned

01:27:26.960 maybe if they completely cut out the war ASAP, maybe we'll let them back. But nobody is proposing 0.98

01:27:33.980 that seriously. But apparently, according to Viva Frye, and Libby also mentioned up here, Libby T, 0.87

01:27:39.380 Viva Frye is mostly American news now. All these guys, like, they just start talking about American

01:27:46.680 news and then they come back to Canada, they don't know what they're even talking about anymore.

01:27:50.020 It's like they looked in the mirror, saw their own face, and then they immediately forgot what

01:27:54.460 they looked like after walking away to cite a Bible passage there. I know that it's probably a

01:27:59.720 little bit heretical for me to cite it about politics, but still.

01:28:06.600 Owlette says, I don't watch Viva or Clyde anymore. I think Clyde mostly talks about Canada, to be fair.

01:28:12.480 I think he's mostly kept it up well, but Viva is mostly just, he'll talk about Canada when something

01:28:18.000 spicy is happening. But other than that, he doesn't talk about Canada. And I think even when

01:28:23.240 you look at his, okay, I would say I don't want to be mean, but I don't care. If you look at Viva

01:28:30.700 Frye's uploads, and let's just go look at it for a second. Like everything's just every, whatever the

01:28:36.320 big Canadian media or the big American media story is, is just what he's covering. There's like

01:28:43.940 nothing about his channel I find that's particularly unique. So let's go to the video section again.

01:28:50.520 I'm not trying to like cram down on somebody here, but like, I'll bring it up on screen.

01:29:01.100 But before I talk about this, Tyler Kaye clarified that it was a different John Bolton he was talking

01:29:06.220 about before. But guys, guess what? In early like March, like maybe March 7th or 9th, the actual

01:29:14.420 John Bolton is actually going to come onto this channel, the guy who is Donald Trump's former

01:29:19.040 defense advisor or, or, or yeah, yeah, defense advisor to talk about Canada, the 51st state stuff,

01:29:26.540 you know, how Trump basically is playing the Canadian government. I think John Bolton,

01:29:31.740 like the actual John Bolton is a great person to talk about that because he has very big differences

01:29:37.220 with Trump. He agrees with Trump on some things. He disagrees with him on some things. Sometimes I

01:29:41.940 disagree with John Bolton's takes. Sometimes I agree with him, but he's a good person to actually

01:29:46.240 analyze what's going on between the U.S. and Canada right now. But here we have Viva Frye's channel.

01:29:53.820 And I find when you go through this, everything is just stuff that every other person is already

01:29:58.960 covering in Canadian politics. And he's putting out a 10 minute rant video about it. Literally

01:30:04.060 every single, yeah. Look at this 10 days ago, terror for karma. Don't ever boo the American

01:30:12.780 national anthem. Viva Frye. Sorry. Is there a Canadian video here where he talks about how Canada

01:30:18.080 won? Oh no. Oh no. Because he just, he's just a MAGA guy now. And again, I have no problem with

01:30:24.380 Donald Trump and the MAGA people, but it's just so naked. It's just so obvious. Yeah.

01:30:37.540 Okay. Campsite Zed says, when you go to Nanaimo, please sample some of the tap water and have it

01:30:42.560 analyzed. Like what's in that makes them vote so much green in NDP. Yeah. Maybe I'll do a water taste

01:30:47.760 test. Phoebe Long says, Michelle Rempel Garner lives in Wyoming and represents a Calgary riding.

01:30:57.380 Yeah. And she also pretends to be a conservative. 1.00

01:31:03.560 Michelle Rempel Garner, from everything I've seen from her, every once in a while she says

01:31:08.200 the right thing, but only when it's very easy to say the right thing. I call her Christia Freeland

01:31:14.880 in a cowboy hat for a reason. I want to actually show you guys quickly. It's late enough in a live

01:31:25.380 stream. I don't think anyone can get mad at me from this for Main Street, but I want to show you

01:31:29.000 guys the polling again, uh, from the liberal leadership race that Main Street did where they

01:31:35.420 actually polled only members. And this is where I legitimately think that Carney could still lose

01:31:42.980 because remember this is before he had those two extremely boring, ho-hum, uh, debate performances.

01:31:50.600 Let's bring this up on screen and I'll show you the cross tabs.

01:31:54.660 You're not supposed to show people the cross tabs for Main Street polls if you pay for them,

01:31:58.560 because obviously you're, you're buying the proprietary information, but this stuff's old

01:32:03.000 enough and it's late enough in a, in a video. I'm obviously not marketing this video of saying,

01:32:08.720 hey, let me expose all the Main Street polls for you. This is all the top line numbers available

01:32:14.040 to everyone, but Mark Carney is at 43%. Christia Freeland, 31. Karina Gould, 16. And then we have

01:32:22.860 Frank Bayless at three and we have Undecided at 7%. And this is actually a poll of 2,200 people who say

01:32:29.720 that they're members of the liberal party. And look at down here. I think this is interesting.

01:32:35.000 So top line number, just cause it's a long bar, obviously, but Mark Carney is the first,

01:32:43.260 second is Gould, third is, uh, Freeland, uh, fourth is Bayless. Look at this. Atlantic Canada. I,

01:32:50.140 I don't, I, I can understand how it's his best, um, provincial area is the, uh, is Atlantic Canada,

01:32:57.620 but Ontario, he's only at 43%, which is his average. And in Quebec, he's 40. I could see him

01:33:05.020 actually severely underperforming. Now that he showed that his French sucks, I could see him 1.00

01:33:10.020 slipping from 40 down to 33 and probably redistributing that vote between Karina Gould 0.87

01:33:15.720 and Christia Freeland, and especially Frank Bayless, who has excellent French. And then in British Columbia,

01:33:21.060 I think as well, like all of these places, basically he's going to slip and there's already areas of the

01:33:28.500 country where he definitely doesn't do that well compared to Freeland or others, even though he

01:33:33.780 is the Trudeau backed front runner. So I am not convinced at all that Carney is easily going to

01:33:40.080 win this thing. Even if he doesn't, if he doesn't win on first ballot, he's so, uh, he, like he's so,

01:33:45.640 um, screwed in a, in a general election because he's supposed to be the coming king of the party. 0.96

01:33:50.920 If the king takes two or three ballots to win, that's really pathetic. 0.97

01:33:56.980 Uh, Justin Trudeau says, Viva used to be better. Viva was on the show back during the Freedom Convoy 0.85

01:34:01.880 with me and Daniel Boardman. And what I, what I noticed early on, and I'm not like bitter about it,

01:34:07.740 it was just a thing I noticed and it was kind of a bit odd. He came on the show. Uh, we were doing

01:34:13.240 original reporting on it. He agreed to come on because we had done a lot of exposés on certain

01:34:18.560 aspects of the Freedom Convoy that actually became viral media stories, print online print stories.

01:34:24.780 And so, um, he came on and talked to us. We live streamed it. This is back when we didn't really

01:34:30.120 make a lot of videos, but we had a massive Facebook page. So a lot of people like, like a thousand

01:34:34.460 concurrent people were watching on Facebook and we were just saying, Hey, can you share out the link of

01:34:39.220 the, of the interview on, on, on YouTube? It helps us out a bit, you know, help us grow the channel.

01:34:43.240 He just didn't do it. And he, he comes across like that guy who will like interview with you,

01:34:48.920 but he doesn't want to share anything from a smaller channel. And again, like maybe that

01:34:52.940 was just a mistake, but I, every once in a while notice people who are super Hollywood. They

01:34:58.420 like being around big people and they will not talk about, they will not associate closely

01:35:04.640 with smaller channels. Uh, third tooth pleb is a good aggregator of news snippets. He's 0.91

01:35:18.680 entertaining. I think a pleb has gotten much better over the last eight or so months. And 0.95

01:35:23.740 that's not because he was like doing a bad job before, but I think he really has found

01:35:26.560 like a niche rather than just being like a conservative channel. He does a lot of like the

01:35:30.460 news review type stuff, which is, which is a great, which is a totally fine way of doing

01:35:34.560 stuff. Yeah. Justin Turto says, Michelle Rempel voted in favor of hate speech laws regarding 0.99

01:35:41.040 gender. She also backed the, uh, she also backed the, uh, cancellation of Canada Day in 2020.

01:35:48.140 Uh, she has attacked people as a racist for criticizing Teresa Tam. It's ridiculous. 0.99

01:35:59.340 Um, Jen M says, why can you describe generally the effects of union employees votes in federal 0.51

01:36:06.620 and also provincial elections? How much of the voter turnout is unionized? I think about like,

01:36:12.580 it's, it's not that many people, but it's like 15% of employed people are probably in a union,

01:36:17.640 maybe more like 20%. Um, but I would say half of them are private sector unions and half of them

01:36:24.440 are public sector unions. The public sector unions will doggedly stay behind the liberals and the NDP.

01:36:30.540 In fact, I guarantee public sector unions will probably vote for whatever party in their federal

01:36:36.360 riding can keep the conservatives out because they realize the conservatives are going to come in and

01:36:40.660 probably do something at least even somewhat like doge in the U S cutting wasteful spending and

01:36:46.360 wasteful jobs, which means a lot of public sector union jobs might go out the window. I think private

01:36:52.040 sector unions are probably going to be voting federal conservatives simply because of the taxes,

01:36:57.880 the regulations, and for the cultural issues that the liberals and the NDP seem to not

01:37:03.560 like people who work with their hands. They have a sort of seething contempt for people who actually

01:37:08.840 work hard jobs. And many people in private sector unions are not big union people. They're kind of

01:37:14.840 just forced to be part of a union, but they'd rather just get along with their construction job 0.99

01:37:20.360 and have the union rep stop bothering them and stop taking dues to push leftist crap. Provincially, 0.97

01:37:26.360 somewhere like Ontario, private and public sector unions are actually more heavily voting PC this time.

01:37:32.680 And it's not because Doug is such a great order. It's because Doug Ford is willing to bend over

01:37:37.160 backwards and sell out to the unions in order to get more votes. He is a massive spender.

01:37:48.600 Arto music production says Karina Gould is my choice. Got to get the worst performer in the party. 1.00

01:37:54.360 Um, I always say like careful what you wish for. Cause it's like a 2020 election thing. If Bernie Sanders was

01:38:00.680 the democratic candidate with all the mail and ballots in 2020, Bernie Sanders could have still

01:38:05.400 beat Donald Trump. And do you want somebody even worse than Joe Biden running the country? And I

01:38:10.120 think in Canada, um, I would want Frank Bayless to be the candidate or Christian Freeland because they

01:38:16.520 are the two least destructive people probably in federal power and they're still beatable. Uh,

01:38:23.640 Karina Gould and Mark Carney are the worst. And I think they will do terrible things

01:38:28.440 even if they are not in very long and I don't want, even if they're more beatable,

01:38:33.160 I'd rather have every party just become more natural, like, you know, more rational.

01:38:39.480 Um, yeah, I, I've never watched Moose on the Loose and I think it's because

01:38:44.440 I just generally, because I do so much stuff in videos and I follow politics so much,

01:38:48.760 it's almost like it's hard for me to watch other people's videos if they cover even similar topics to

01:38:54.520 me. Like I watch people who cover very different topics, like Frank Vaughn. Frank Vaughn's a great

01:38:59.560 channel. Um, uh, uh, Great Canadian Bagel is a great channel. I'll sometimes watch Clyde do something.

01:39:05.880 We sometimes cover the same stuff, but, uh, um, great. I want to, I want to actually link Great

01:39:13.880 Canadian Bagel. You guys should go watch him. He does what you would consider fairly dry videos,

01:39:19.000 but if you want to understand polling at a minute level, go and follow the Great Canadian Bagel.

01:39:26.840 Um, oh, hey, thank you. Thank you for the $2 super chat, Manav Karana. Who is worse,

01:39:34.360 Singh or Gazan? Also throw in Carney. Um, that's actually such a tough one. Like, let's say Carney is

01:39:43.880 too new for me to consider. And let's just make this an NDP thing. Leah Gazan is probably worse. 1.00

01:39:50.040 Leah Gazan is actually out of her mind. Like she reminds me of Maisie Hirono, the Hawaii Senator, 0.98

01:39:56.520 just the way she kind of talks like this. And also something, something is real bad. Conservatives,

01:40:05.480 racist, um, reconciliation. Like that is all Leah Gazan is. And somehow she is going to keep getting

01:40:12.120 reelected because she's in Winnipeg center. She is absolutely out of her mind. Jagmeet Singh sucks 1.00

01:40:17.160 because he's been holding up the government and he gets, lets Justin Trudeau get away with murder. 0.99

01:40:22.440 But in terms of individual politics, even with those Calistani crap that he does, 1.00

01:40:28.360 even Leah Gazan is still worse. She is part of the Hamas caucus of the NDP alongside, uh, 0.99

01:40:34.680 Heather McPherson, uh, and Nikki Ashton and Charlie Angus. Charlie Angus is such a pathetic 0.99

01:40:41.560 person. What a, what a useless sack of garbage to be in government for 21 years, constantly smearing 1.00

01:40:49.240 people, ripping them down, ripping on business owners, supporting terrorist groups. He's been 1.00

01:40:54.280 in since 2004. And then he starts a petition saying we should strip Elon Musk of his Canadian citizenship.

01:41:01.000 Okay, whatever, dude, go join your punk band again. Like Charlie Angus, how, again,

01:41:06.920 I made a video about this a big, a bit ago. How very rock, a punk and rock of Charlie Angus to be one

01:41:16.040 of the most establishment lefty politicians you've ever seen. Yes, very punk of him. What band is he

01:41:24.120 part of? Rage more or less in exact tandem with the machine? Well, it's so bad.

01:41:35.000 He should, it's like Radiohead, but his band would be called Government Radiohead.

01:41:39.400 Oh, that's such a great, that's such a deep cut third tooth. Didn't Michelle Rimple try and get 1.00

01:41:51.560 poppers legalized? Yeah, she tried to get like a nightclub party drug legalized or whatever. It's 1.00

01:41:57.480 like, she was like trying to get like a version of Quaaludes legalized or whatever. Because I guess it was 0.68

01:42:03.480 good for the gay community or something, whatever her justification was. She's so weird. She called 0.98

01:42:08.040 parents bigots for protesting drag queen story hours at a local library because of course they should. 1.00

01:42:14.600 This is what taxpayer money is going towards. It's ridiculous. 0.99

01:42:25.480 This is a good one. Paul Blanchard says, 0.96

01:42:28.520 Mr. Sunshine Baby's videos are like those Jehovah Witness brochures you find in your doorstep with 1.00

01:42:34.280 a bomb on the cover saying, it's happening.

01:42:45.960 Uh, Wyatt, do you have an up from Mario Francis?

01:42:50.680 Um, are you talking, who are we talking about? Is Mario Francis somebody running for the party?

01:42:57.960 Um, Karina Ghul would be less bad for Mark Carney, but essentially be the same thing as Trudeau,

01:43:08.760 a figurehead actor while Carney runs the show. Yeah. Um, to be fair, I'm not even sure if

01:43:15.000 like Mark Carney's exactly in control of his campaign. He's so, um, he's so uncharismatic

01:43:23.240 and stiff. He might be more of a thinking man, but I think when, as soon as it comes to politics,

01:43:27.720 he starts being told what to do by Katie Telford and Gerald Butts.

01:43:32.440 Hey, see, marketing works. I actually do a podcast with, uh, Chris on the great Canadian bagel.

01:43:39.080 So I assume that that's where he found me from. Yeah. Me and Chris do a, uh, uh, do a video series

01:43:44.920 that kind of talks about political topics through the lens of, of polling and what can be proven

01:43:50.760 through polling. Hey, thank you, Stephen Hess for the $2 super chat. Thank you. It helps the channel out a lot.

01:43:56.840 Uh, Randall Hedgie says, this is great, but polling is not accurate in any way, no matter what way. I

01:44:06.600 just tell everyone to not rely on polling. Okay. Um, I would say that's inaccurate here. Bad polls

01:44:12.440 are bad, but good polls are good. There's a reason why Richard Barris, who runs big data poll, who does

01:44:18.360 very in-depth demographic balancing of his polls. He does live caller and online surveys. He's very detailed

01:44:26.520 and do you know how accurate he was in the swing States in the U S election? He was accurate to 0.1

01:44:32.600 or 0.2%. That guy was right on because if you pull enough people and you make sure you're not just

01:44:38.120 pulling a Starbucks line in downtown Toronto, you will have an accurate poll. That's why abacus and

01:44:44.040 innovation have better polls than the rest is they make sure that they're not just, they're not just

01:44:49.480 pulling a bunch of leftists in Toronto and in Ottawa as their Ontario sample. They make sure

01:44:56.520 to categorize people, figure out what types of work they're in so that they, you know,

01:45:01.320 because you can call up a bunch of people in a rural riding and have that rural riding

01:45:05.800 look like it's going left, but you just, the problem is you hold all the public school

01:45:09.720 teachers in that riding and the farmers didn't pick up. Yeah. Angus is a vile human being.

01:45:15.720 Uh, Boba Fett, uh, Broba Fett. Angus is unhinged. Someone get that man, uh, a butterscotch 1.00

01:45:21.160 palace. Yeah. Charlie Angus looks like if he was in a fight, he'd just throw packages of Werther's

01:45:26.680 originals at you. Stephen Hess for $2 super chat. Thank you for the other $2. Carney also doesn't

01:45:32.440 have Freeland's name recognition. And you are right about that. That is why I doubt every poll

01:45:38.120 that shows that if Mark Carney's the leader, everything changes and the liberals are way ahead.

01:45:42.200 Nobody knows who he is. There are people who act on CBC shows that basically nobody watch,

01:45:49.560 nobody watches that have higher name recognition than Mark Carney does. He is not a household name

01:45:55.000 by any means. Even Freeland wasn't that much of a household name. Like 50% of people before the

01:46:00.360 leadership race could identify her face. Carney was at 25%. Unless every Canadian started watching

01:46:07.240 the news overnight, and most of them don't watch news, especially political news. Nobody knows who

01:46:11.720 Mark Carney is still, and he reminds me of Michael Ignatius.

01:46:17.720 Lol, she didn't even win her riding. The Ontario Liberals were on the radio trying to convince NDP

01:46:22.760 voters to jump ship, all because polls said the Liberals had, uh, had overtaken the NDP. Hilarious.

01:46:29.400 Uh, thank you for the $10, David Edwards. And you're right, that was such a stupid move by 1.00

01:46:34.280 Bonnie Crombie. As if she was just gonna say, can you guys please vote for us? Nobody wants to be, 1.00

01:46:40.440 like, begged for their vote. Please vote for us so these other guys don't win. You just gotta run

01:46:45.080 hard. You just run for everyone's vote. That is how you run. On a riding level, sometimes you avoid

01:46:51.640 that neighborhood, sometimes you avoid that street because it's NDP hardcores and there's no point, 0.99

01:46:55.960 it's a waste of time in a short campaign period. But what you do is you just hit every door. You try

01:47:02.120 and go to the parts of town where people are winnable, and you win them. You don't go to parts of

01:47:06.360 town where people are not voting for your party, and you say, hey, I know you want to vote for the

01:47:11.400 NDP, but how about you vote for us because we're not the PCs? Like, well, they're voting NDP for a

01:47:17.240 reason. You can't just say, vote for me because I'm not the PCs.

01:47:22.120 Jen Ambith with the 1399 Super Chat. You were the one who asked the question about unions for context

01:47:31.320 on how private and public sector union votes will affect the federal and provincial election. He says,

01:47:39.240 Jen Ambith says, great answer, much appreciated. Don't forget unions affect on election in all your

01:47:44.680 videos. And yes, test the water on Vancouver Island. It has something weird in it. And yeah,

01:47:49.800 I actually used to mention unions more in my videos, I should probably do that more,

01:47:55.480 because I don't doubt that is a lot of why the liberals are gaining votes from the NDP.

01:48:00.680 It's public sector union voters jumping ship from Jagmeet, or even some private sector union voters

01:48:06.680 who are more left, who they see the liberals or sorry, the conservatives as a threat to all their

01:48:12.200 union power and benefits. So they're going to swing hard behind the liberals trying to prevent

01:48:16.760 a conservative victory. He's Michael, the great dominion says he's Michael Ignatio for the

01:48:22.760 calculator. Yep. Uh, 279. Love your channel. Keep up the great work. Thank you, Josie Rose.

01:48:29.640 Thank you for watching. Make sure to share the videos with your friends. And if you guys are

01:48:33.400 watching this for some reason, and you're not a subscriber, please subscribe to the channel.

01:48:37.560 That'd be great. Uh, pancake bunny said, did the new blue gain or lose votes this year?

01:48:44.200 They may have lost votes, but it's only because everyone has been voting less, uh, in the sense

01:48:50.920 that every party lost votes because it's low turnout in terms of percentage, they might have lost a bit.

01:48:56.200 I'm not even sure about that. They actually might've gone up a little bit, but they also were only running

01:49:00.840 108 candidates rather than 124, like they did last time, which threw off the results a bit,

01:49:07.400 because the problem was that when the election is called and you have to notify your people,

01:49:12.520 please sign up and be a member, please sign up and become a candidate. It's very difficult to get

01:49:17.240 people to then say, Oh yeah, I'll sign up to be a candidate and I'll go get 25 signatures on short

01:49:22.200 notice where usually the party would have six months to have gotten all their candidates in place,

01:49:27.240 gotten their signatures, given them lawn signs, given them literature. And so this time people

01:49:32.520 were truly signing up just so there was a name on the ballot. And guess what? Every party was doing

01:49:37.320 that. Even the PCs were scrambling to get their last 25 or 30 candidates when Ford called the election.

01:49:44.280 So that in some of these writings where the PCs know they can't win, at least they had somebody on

01:49:49.960 the ballot down in like Spadina. Um, okay. Oh, Hey, thank you, Paul. $50 super chat from Paul,

01:50:00.360 proud Canadian. Another one of our great heroes of the chat helping keep the machine of the national

01:50:06.280 telegraph alive. Hello, Wyatt. Why is pure poly of being so low key regarding his own campaign?

01:50:12.760 The Trudeau liberals continue to perpetuate their lies and radical left policies,

01:50:16.760 influencing uninformed Canadians. Could this threaten the federal election outcome?

01:50:21.800 I've been doing a lot of videos or I need some tea.

01:50:27.080 I've been doing a lot of videos recently on why I don't think the liberals are really catching up

01:50:32.440 as much as people think they're getting a polling bump because people are coming back a little bit

01:50:37.960 towards the liberals. Now that Trudeau is no longer the leader. I don't think that the,

01:50:45.560 I think the conservatives are still going to win. And if you're detecting that the conservatives are

01:50:49.480 being a bit more low key, I think it's that they're having to pivot their messaging a bit

01:50:54.040 because so much of their messaging was kind of reliant on Justin Trudeau being the leader of the

01:50:59.400 liberals still. So they've done a lot of stuff in the past a little bit on rebranding towards the

01:51:05.080 Canada first platform direction and away from this whole sort of carbon tax election stuff.

01:51:10.680 I didn't even like the carbon tax election rather before because I thought it was weak. It felt

01:51:16.040 shallow. The election needs to be more than both about more than the carbon tax. So if anything,

01:51:21.720 it was good for the conservatives to have this switch up take place because it forced them to

01:51:26.200 say a little bit more of what they're going to do. I think they still need to reduce immigration more. 0.99

01:51:30.520 I think Polly of saying he would put a cap on immigration at 250,000. Yes, that's better than 1.00

01:51:36.680 what the liberals were doing by more than a hundred thousand. I think they're lowering,

01:51:40.120 that's basically lowering it by another like 130,000 for where the liberals put the cap to,

01:51:45.880 because the liberals lowered it to like 395,000. Now the conservatives are saying 250,000. I think it

01:51:51.720 needs to be 100,000 capped in order to make up the ground. But I think there are some Canadians

01:51:59.560 who could be swayed by Carney or whatever. But I think that for the most part, a lot of the liberal

01:52:05.800 hype is mostly just hype. It's just that it's not substantial support. Dave M. Thank you for the

01:52:13.880 1999 super chat. Thanks for the great channel. Thank you for being a great viewer, Dave.

01:52:21.480 Veronica Taylor, you're good at deciphering the polls, Wyatt. And the thing is, I'm not a polling

01:52:25.880 expert exactly. I know how to read a poll. And I think that's good enough that I'm not

01:52:30.520 looking at top line numbers and setting my hair on fire rather than looking at the regionals

01:52:34.760 and saying, hey, these regionals make no sense. I'm discounting this poll because

01:52:38.840 if regionals are swinging hard and somehow like ECOS is an easy example, if ECOS has the

01:52:45.800 liberals catching up, but they have the liberals at 36% in Alberta and they have the Greens at 10%

01:52:51.240 in Atlantic Canada, you know that that's probably not real because there's no way that the liberals

01:52:57.320 are actually doing that well in Alberta or the Greens are doing that well in Atlantic Canada.

01:53:02.520 There's nothing in Canadian society to suggest that these parties would be moving like this.

01:53:08.360 But that's why I follow Brian Berguet on Twitter, on X. He does a great job talking about polls.

01:53:14.680 David Coletto from Abacus Data does a great job presenting poll numbers.

01:53:19.480 People like Chris at the Great Canadian Bagel, who I've been linking, he's very good, but yeah.

01:53:31.080 Oh, Mario Francis is undergoing a nomination race in Burnaby Seymour. Voting stopped at 8pm.

01:53:36.360 Well, I think I've talked to Mario Francis before. I assume he was going to win because

01:53:40.520 I didn't hear any of other big candidates in the riding. Yeah, but I've met him a few times

01:53:45.000 because he was obviously very involved in the BC Conservatives.

01:53:47.720 Yeah, like Mario Francis very much reminds me of like another kind of Harman Bangu type guy who's

01:53:55.560 the conservative BC MLA for, what is it? It's Langley Abbotsford.

01:54:03.320 Hey, Ariel says, hey Wyatt, I just wanted to ask if the Ontario election is a good sign for Pierre.

01:54:12.440 I think it just doesn't matter. I think Ontario's provincial politics has become a pure bubble.

01:54:18.200 Ford got in, and this is the funny thing. Ford gets reelected off of the backs of a lot of federal

01:54:24.360 liberals. There are a lot of federal liberal but provincial PC voters in Ontario, and a lot of

01:54:30.280 federal conservatives, like a good portion of the party, sits out those elections because they hate

01:54:34.600 Ford. Like not like 50% of federal conservatives, but like a good quarter of federal conservatives

01:54:41.320 probably can't stand Ford and they refuse to vote. So Ford backfills himself with a lot of

01:54:46.200 Justin Trudeau's people. David Edward, $10 super chat. Thank you. Scott Reed on CTV

01:54:53.160 saying the CPC is in trouble with 41% and in the same 10 minutes, and in the same 10 minutes,

01:55:02.680 aid Ford was sailing to a majority with the exact same number. The bias is hilarious. New

01:55:08.680 blue conservatives are falling for it. Newbie conservatives are falling for it. I would agree 1.00

01:55:15.400 partially. 40% federally can be a little bit more dangerous because of how votes are spread out. I think

01:55:22.600 the conservatives are going to be able to end up at 43%, 42% conservative federally, and I think

01:55:28.280 that's going to be enough for a majority. They could even punch 44%, 45% because I think especially

01:55:33.320 with young men and middle-aged married couples very heavily swinging towards conservatives, it's going to

01:55:40.360 be hard to stop them. But federally, it could be tighter simply because the blocs, 7% is all concentrated

01:55:49.400 in Quebec, and the liberals are very concentrated in Ontario, and the NDP is very concentrated in

01:55:56.200 Winnipeg and Vancouver Island and Vancouver. That's where it can be a little bit hairier,

01:56:03.000 is because the conservatives have a less efficient vote than the Ontario PCs, and they definitely have

01:56:10.040 a less efficient vote than their competitors in the federal liberals and the NDP and the Greens and the

01:56:14.920 block where I think they've averaged it out. For like a conservative to win a riding, on average,

01:56:21.800 you need like 27,000 votes for the average win a conservative has, where a liberal needs like

01:56:28.200 23,000 votes for a win, and the NDP needs like 14,000 votes in terms of how many federal votes do they

01:56:35.000 need before they win a seat? Conservatives need a lot of votes in order to win because their votes,

01:56:40.760 it's hard to say, but like the liberals win a lot of like up the middle victories around the GTA,

01:56:49.560 they win a lot of seats with like 36% of the vote, not a massive win, where the conservatives vote is

01:56:55.480 eaten up in northern Alberta, where it's winning dictatorship numbers, and I mean like 85% of the

01:57:00.760 vote goes to the federal conservatives, but that 85% in Athabasca doesn't really matter to the rest of the country.

01:57:08.040 Anyways, I'm probably gonna have to wrap up here a bit because I'm literally almost going for two hours here.

01:57:23.880 Yeah, so I see a lot of people are agreeing with the 100,000 cap and saying like, and also we need

01:57:29.400 very strict standards on who can come in. It's not just any one up to 100,000, it's you have to have

01:57:36.040 a very good score on a point system with a values test attached to it, and you can't bring too many

01:57:40.920 dependents with you. Hugh Jazz says, thank you for that name, did New Blue get any votes? Yes,

01:57:48.600 they did, and I think they still got their average probably two and a half percent of the vote,

01:57:53.240 which for a small party is great considering most small parties in their first several elections

01:57:57.720 don't even get one percent. So this wasn't even, and again, I said it at the very start of this stream,

01:58:03.240 I don't consider this New Blue second election, and oh goodness, they failed to grow. This isn't

01:58:10.120 their second election, this is like the first election part two, because it's so, it's been,

01:58:16.360 you know, because it's basically a by-election. Nobody's showing up and voting, so few people

01:58:20.840 are engaged, New Blue didn't have any lead-up time, and so that's the problem.

01:58:24.440 Sully Canuck says, for a $10 super chat, thank you for that. I voted New Blue in Elgin Middlesex,

01:58:33.320 London. They did reasonably well. What do you think? And I would agree, in a lot of these

01:58:37.400 Southwest ridings, like again, Rhonda Jubinville got eight percent in her riding. Belinda Carajalio 0.94

01:58:44.600 still got five percent in her riding. I believe the one you're talking about Elgin Middlesex, London,

01:58:49.320 they're getting like 4.5 or three percent or six percent, and that doesn't sound like a lot,

01:58:55.800 but the fact that you're not a party on most people's radar, and by talking to some people,

01:59:01.080 you were able to scrape up 1500 votes is pretty good, and what you then do is take that as your

01:59:07.080 hardcore base, mine those people for new volunteers so that you can hit the ground with 50 volunteers.

01:59:12.760 You want to keep using data mining tactics, running petitions and whatnot, getting people on side,

01:59:18.360 helping out school board trustee and council candidates with the deal that, hey, if I help

01:59:23.560 you out, you have to help us out, then you can actually start being in business.

01:59:29.880 The Cryptic Stench says, for a $6.99 super chat, thank you for that. Hi Wyatt, has there been any word on the

01:59:38.120 JCCS prorogation challenge, haven't heard anything since Northern Perspective covered it. That's where

01:59:45.800 I have to assume that people saying NP mean Northern Perspective now, not National Post.

01:59:51.240 I haven't heard anything about it, and this is one of my controversial takes. I don't support that

01:59:56.520 lawsuit because I think that a government's allowed to prorogate. I think that's perfectly fine,

02:00:01.880 it's been a precedent in Canadian politics, you can use prorogation,

02:00:08.120 the main thing about prorogation, the main thing, the thing that you risk when you prorogate is

02:00:19.720 all of your legislation goes through out the window, you have to reintroduce all of it,

02:00:23.880 and Canadians hate it. I think there's already enough negative stuff attached to the fact that

02:00:29.400 you prorogate, that you don't need a, because the problem with the judge coming in and saying you

02:00:33.640 can't prorogate because you're shutting down parliament or whatever, technically in Canada's

02:00:37.800 constitution, the only thing you have to do is have parliament open for a single day to pass

02:00:43.480 the spending bill, basically pass the budget, and that's it. And then you can run the entire

02:00:47.800 government on executive power. That's allowed, that would also be extremely unpopular so nobody does

02:00:53.080 it, and that's why politicians don't tend to prorogate all the time, because for the most part it's

02:00:57.480 very risky to do, and I think the liberals only hurt themselves by doing it. I don't like the JCCF

02:01:03.320 lawsuit, because now if they were to win, it's basically saying a judge can tell your government

02:01:09.560 what it has to do. A judge should really only be stepping in to say you can't do that,

02:01:15.960 and prorogation is a perfectly fine tool. A judge is now saying I get to decide whether your

02:01:20.760 prorogation feels political or not. Every prorogation is political. What are people saying?

02:01:25.880 Everything in politics is political. And the JCCF has been citing a case from the UK, and I'm like,

02:01:34.040 guys, have you seen the UK? The UK is ruled by authoritarian judges who are constantly saying,

02:01:41.080 no, no, you have to do this. No, no, no, DEI programs must be implemented. No, you have to let

02:01:47.640 the Islamists take over the streets for their prayer demonstrations. This is the problem with that 0.98

02:01:55.400 court challenge. It's basically saying judges have more power over what parliament does

02:02:00.200 than our own elected officials, which means that the people have less power in our parliament than

02:02:04.920 judges do. But yeah. Jared Walsh for $5, thank you for that, says he's just barely won Whitby and

02:02:14.040 Pickering-Uxbridge as well, almost won Oshawa. So Bonnie lost her seat. Is this a good win for Ford or not?

02:02:20.840 I don't think any win is good for Ford because he's going to keep doubling down on being extremely

02:02:26.200 liberal. Doug Ford spends, even correcting for inflation, even correcting for COVID's era spending,

02:02:33.080 Doug Ford spends more than Kathleen Wynne. He hasn't gotten rid of DEI. He hasn't got rid of ESG. In fact,

02:02:39.000 he's doubled down on it. He has not gotten the crazy sex ed curriculum out of the schools. He just

02:02:43.880 doesn't care. And that's the problem. Doug Ford is just not conservative. He doesn't care to be.

02:02:49.080 He uses conservative rhetoric like every once in a while saying, oh, I'm in favor of capital

02:02:52.680 punishment. I'm a conservative red meat eating man. But then he acts like he's Bonnie Crombie

02:02:57.640 or he's Fat Trudeau. There's a reason why he is Fat Trudeau on pretty much every stupid green 1.00

02:03:05.080 boondoggle because he agrees with him. He's not doing this for fun. He's doing this because he is 0.99

02:03:10.040 fundamentally left on so many issues. But anyway, so I'm having to move on here. I'm sorry if I'm having

02:03:18.520 to skip through some stuff. I've been on for two hours and I'm becoming dehydrated.

02:03:23.000 Yeah, Ford's a traitor. I agree with that. 0.99

02:03:30.920 Here's something I can mention at the end. Hey, by the way, congratulations to Danielle Smith

02:03:35.720 for lowering taxes, or at least her finance minister has leaked the idea that they might

02:03:40.840 be lowering taxes this year. Good. Now, if I was going to the UCPAGM and this was something

02:03:46.680 and there was another leadership review, I would now vote yes on Danielle Smith. Before I was annoyed

02:03:51.800 because why are you not cutting taxes? It's been two years. Please cut taxes. And there wasn't really

02:03:56.280 any indication they were going to do it before. They finally did it. Good. Now they can call Nahid Nenshii 0.72

02:04:03.000 a tax and spend liberal in the future Alberta provincial election. Before when they weren't cutting taxes,

02:04:08.280 it's like, guys, you can't call them a tax and spend liberal when you guys are tax and spend liberals.

02:04:13.080 So good. We got it done. We did it, boys. And now I can actually say nicer things about

02:04:18.760 Danielle Smith now. She did a good job on the border. That was good. Yeah.

02:04:26.120 Ruthie says to Proba Fett as a response, I don't believe the polls, just abacus. 0.82

02:04:31.880 I would say check out Innovation Research. They do a great job because they balance voters very

02:04:38.840 well, showing that they're not just pulling a bunch of leftist hippies. They actually show

02:04:42.760 that, hey, we have the populist right we polled, we have these people. And so it demonstrates that

02:04:48.280 it's not a response bias because if core left in their polls went from 18% to 27%, I don't think 27%

02:04:56.120 of Canadians are core leftists. So they can kind of see that their poll is off because people's

02:05:01.880 personalities don't change as quickly as their voting patterns do. But yeah.

02:05:06.680 Uh, anyway, so I'm probably gonna have to leave it here. Um,

02:05:15.880 Mr. C. White, if you could pick any of the 81 genders other than OG2, which one would you pick

02:05:22.120 and why? I don't know. Isn't there something called like omni gender or something like that? I want to

02:05:27.480 say, I want to pick something that makes me sound like a transformer. I will be transformer gender. 0.83

02:05:31.960 Oh, hey, I'm a core leftist here to provide balance. Hey, there's Frank Vaughn.

02:05:39.080 Speak of the devil, even though I haven't actually mentioned him yet. You know what,

02:05:42.280 guys, before I end this, please go and subscribe to Frank Vaughn. I'm gonna

02:05:47.400 link his channel in the description below. He does a great show every single day, uh, talks about a lot

02:05:52.520 of sovereignty topics about Canada, as well as a lot of, uh, stuff regarding Trump, the border, and the

02:06:00.040 problems with money laundering and terrorism funding in Canada. So yeah, go check out Frank Vaughn.

02:06:06.360 He's really great. I'll just keep spamming that link just so it doesn't get buried by people

02:06:10.120 talking. But yeah, go follow that guy. Go follow the great Canadian bagel, Chris. And then I'll

02:06:15.240 also just leave one last link for you guys to ponder, um, on the way out of this live stream for

02:06:21.400 my website. If you want to sign up on the website for nominations recommendations. Frank Vaughn says,

02:06:27.320 you don't have to do that, man. Thank you. You're a great channel. Like I watch Frank every day. So

02:06:31.400 it'd be weird if I watch Frank's show every day. And I, when me and Frank disagree on some stuff,

02:06:35.880 we agree on a lot of stuff. He's just an interesting channel. I think he has a great

02:06:39.560 perspectives on stuff and he deep dives on issues that I don't deep dive on. So yeah,

02:06:45.400 I need a chow. I'm glad conservatives want no Anita, but they're not conservative. That's the problem. 0.94

02:06:50.120 I can't stand Doug Ford. He's just not going to do anything like literally so little has changed

02:06:55.080 under Doug Ford from Kathleen Wynne. It's, it's ridiculous. 0.95

02:07:01.080 Uh, anyways. Okay. So that's it for today, guys. I'm terrible at ending videos. You'll notice that 0.62

02:07:08.120 in all the videos I do for my channel. Normally I get to like the point where I've talked through

02:07:12.840 a topic and then I'm like, well, I guess that's it. And then I throw some like other stuff I'm

02:07:18.200 talking, uh, then I even usually keep rambling on and then I eventually end it, which is basically

02:07:22.760 what I'm doing here. But yeah, so I'll see you guys all later. I'm going to Nanaimo tomorrow.

02:07:28.200 I'll probably film something tonight. So I have something to release while I'm in the air or when

02:07:34.040 I'm in Nanaimo driving around. So that's going to be fun. Uh, I don't like to leave it like where I

02:07:39.160 have nothing for a day. I always try and also upload on the weekends. Cause I think it's weird.

02:07:43.800 Like nobody else is making content on the weekends. Why don't I? So, uh, so yeah, I'll see you guys

02:07:48.840 later. I'll be in Nanaimo. I'll do some reports out from how things go with the BC Conservatives

02:07:53.560 videos and I'll see you guys next time.

The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - February 28, 2025

Polls, Liberal leadership, and Ontario Election

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