The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - March 06, 2025


Polls Reverse! Conservatives open BIG lead over Liberals (7% to 13%)

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Wyatt Claypool
Mentioned
Mark Carney Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Jagmeet Singh Burnaby North Seymour Yves-Francois Blanchet Michael Ignatieff Burnaby Central Jim Flaherty Yara Sachs Jagmeesik Surrey Leger
Mark Carney banned me from his event! His campaign knows he sucks Jagmeet Singh runs away from No Confidence vote he promised!

Episode Stats


Length

21 minutes

Words per minute

184.12

Word count

3,909

Sentence count

259

Harmful content

Misogyny

8

sentences flagged

Toxicity

15

sentences flagged

Hate speech

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, I discuss some new polling trends that seem to prove my theory that the rise in the polls for the Liberals over the past month was all a result of a response bias. I talk about how the Tories are losing ground to the Liberals, and why I think we are at the "high water mark" for the party.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. I want to talk today about some new polling trends we're seeing come out that I think prove my point I've been making over the past month, that the rise in the polls for the Liberals, in some cases actually eclipsing the Conservatives in support, was all a response bias.
00:00:20.160 It was Liberals being more likely to pick up the phone and take a poll than they usually would be, so although the Liberals had a small bump in support, maybe they went from 21% to 28%, they were never at 35%.
00:00:35.060 It's just that Liberals became 90% likely to take a poll, while the rest of Canadians supporting other parties were maybe only like 60% likely to take a poll.
00:00:44.020 So, I want to take you guys through what the current polls are showing, because now the Conservatives, with many of the pollsters, are back to wide leads.
00:00:53.200 Some just 7%, but others going up to 13%. It looks like we are at the high water mark for Mark Carney as Liberal leader.
00:01:02.980 I know he's not Liberal leader yet, what everyone is assuming he is, and basically baking that into their decisions when it comes to who they're voting for.
00:01:11.420 Anyways, before I get into this guys, I just want to remind you, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel, I'm trying to get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December,
00:01:21.800 and leave a comment on where you think this whole election is going to land, whether it's going to be later in the year, and who you think is going to win, whether majority or minority.
00:01:32.700 Please subscribe to the channel if you're not a subscriber.
00:01:34.740 This is my fourth time making this video, because of how messed up StreamYards has been every time I've recorded it.
00:01:41.420 Anyways, let's get into our first poll, and this should be the tightest one.
00:01:47.520 Ooh, actually, it's not this one. It is actually this one.
00:01:51.700 Polera now has a 10-point lead for the Conservative Party of Canada.
00:01:56.620 42% for pure poly of Conservatives, to 32% for the Liberals.
00:02:01.280 That is a generic Liberal party, but again, most people who are politically in tune and are taking polls realize it's pretty much going to be Mark Carney,
00:02:10.280 and there's a sliver of a chance that Chrystia Freeland may be leading the Liberals. 0.95
00:02:14.780 This Polera poll is, in fact, probably still over-polling how well the Liberals are going to do in the next election.
00:02:22.800 I do not think the Liberals are currently a 32% party nationally, and I don't think as badly run as the NDP is under Jagmeesik.
00:02:32.080 He is an abysmal politician. Terrible.
00:02:34.460 There's still not, in my mind, an 11% party.
00:02:39.000 I think we're going to see the NDP land somewhere around 13 to 15 points.
00:02:44.480 Everyone is currently just very down on the NDP because the Liberals are the cool, shiny new toy on the left again.
00:02:51.440 Once Mark Carney is the leader and really gets the shine ripped off him, you're going to see some progressives migrate back over to the NDP and park their vote with Jagmeet Singh once again.
00:03:03.240 But let's move on to the next poll.
00:03:05.160 That Polera poll, again, a 10-point spread for the Conservatives.
00:03:08.920 That's very good considering Polera before was showing a very tight race within one or two points.
00:03:14.580 Now we have Innovation.
00:03:17.320 Now, Innovation's last poll did have the Conservatives leading by nine points, and this current one is only showing them leading by seven.
00:03:25.280 But again, I think this is a high watermark, and there's already a lot of other, I think, evidence to prove that the Conservatives are both doing better and the Liberals are probably doing worse.
00:03:35.720 The Bloc Québécois being only at 6% doesn't feel realistic to me.
00:03:40.440 Yves-Francois Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois haven't really done anything to embarrass themselves or alienate any of their voters.
00:03:47.120 And in fact, separatist sentiments are rising in Quebec, nowhere near where they were in the 90s.
00:03:53.020 But even them just improving a little bit should at least maintain where the Bloc was in 2021, if not expand their support.
00:04:00.880 I think we're going to see the Bloc Québécois at seven to nine points, not at six.
00:04:05.840 That would be them probably losing a dozen seats.
00:04:08.380 I don't think that's currently in the cards, and I also don't think the CPC would ever be at 38%.
00:04:14.420 I think it has become a solidly 41% and above party right now.
00:04:19.980 But still, compared to what we had been seeing for the last three weeks from most pollsters,
00:04:25.780 and this is still what I consider a high watermark for the Liberals in innovation research, this is a big improvement.
00:04:31.780 But now, let us get to the real big news, and that is Leger, who, mind you, had the Liberals and Conservatives within three points.
00:04:42.640 The Conservatives only leading by three points in their last poll about a week ago.
00:04:47.460 And now, they have the Conservatives leading by 13 points, 43 to 30, and the NDP at 13, and the Bloc at six.
00:04:57.640 Reminder, I think the Bloc's probably going to be more like seven, eight, or even nine.
00:05:02.320 And that's really going to eat mostly into the Liberals polling in Quebec,
00:05:07.060 because the Conservatives don't really have anything you can take from them in Quebec.
00:05:10.540 There's a couple seats the Conservatives can win, but for the most part, where the Conservatives currently have seats,
00:05:16.360 they're very Anglo, Conservative-friendly, very capitalist areas, where all of the areas that the Bloc have,
00:05:23.240 either it's rural riding that the Bloc's never going to lose, or it's Montreal and Quebec City,
00:05:27.980 where the Bloc Québécois has the ability to start eating into the Liberals' sort of red island of Montreal.
00:05:34.440 The Liberals may be technically popular in Quebec, but really, are they?
00:05:40.260 They are popular in, you know, somewhere like Gatineau.
00:05:45.560 They're popular in Montreal.
00:05:47.980 They're popular in Quebec City.
00:05:50.180 Even Quebec City's on a little bit of a knife's edge.
00:05:53.040 And so, with the polls moving a little bit away from them,
00:05:56.300 or even if the Liberals gained a lot in the polls,
00:05:58.360 they're really just holding on to Montreal harder than they usually would have.
00:06:01.540 But if they slip, and the Bloc Québécois starts getting 8% or 9% nationally,
00:06:06.820 which would translate into high 30s,
00:06:09.100 that's when they start eating around the suburban Montreal areas,
00:06:12.960 and the Liberals start losing seats in an area that they cannot afford to lose seats.
00:06:18.020 That is the problem.
00:06:19.500 And I want to get into the specific data behind this poll.
00:06:23.500 Hopefully, the data actually displays properly every time I make this video.
00:06:28.160 Afterwards, I look at the footage, and even though I saw it correctly,
00:06:31.000 the first time, whenever I show something on screen,
00:06:34.160 for some reason, it's just a blank screen.
00:06:36.100 This should be displaying properly, if it's not, forgive me.
00:06:39.460 But here's the top-line numbers, as you've already seen.
00:06:42.000 43 for the Conservatives, 30 for the Liberals.
00:06:45.040 As you can see, since the last poll, the Conservatives have gained 5,
00:06:47.820 the Liberals have lost 5, NDP have lost 1,
00:06:50.480 the Bloc have lost 1,
00:06:51.480 and then the Green Party and the PPC are staying where they're at.
00:06:54.680 Here is where I'm basically talking about why it's impossible right now for the Liberals to win.
00:07:03.200 Right now, Pierre Polyev, and that's this top number here,
00:07:06.480 and this bottom number is the Liberals.
00:07:08.460 This is Atlantic Canada that we're looking at right now.
00:07:11.400 In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are at 33,
00:07:14.640 and the Liberals are at 37,
00:07:16.640 with Justin Trudeau as the generic leader in this poll.
00:07:20.220 We'll get to how Mark Carney polls as a leader a bit later,
00:07:23.040 and why I don't think that's going to hold up over time.
00:07:25.560 But the Liberals are currently leading in Atlantic Canada by 4 points.
00:07:29.840 And usually, that would be cool.
00:07:32.020 That would be pretty neat for the Liberals to be leading,
00:07:34.440 because they've gotten so used to trailing hard, even in Atlantic Canada.
00:07:39.100 The problem is, let's go back to 2015.
00:07:43.240 The Liberals did a clean sweep of Atlantic Canada, literally won every seat.
00:07:47.380 Since then, the Conservatives have grabbed a seat here or there,
00:07:50.220 I think the NDP might have gotten one.
00:07:52.400 The Greens in one of the elections got one.
00:07:54.780 Now it's back to being Liberal.
00:07:56.820 For the most part, though,
00:07:58.740 that's with the Liberals getting mid-40s to almost high 40s in their support.
00:08:04.820 37 to 33 is death.
00:08:07.400 They cannot be in a knife fight with the Conservatives
00:08:10.200 in somewhere like the Maritimes.
00:08:11.920 They need to be far ahead in order to be winning.
00:08:15.840 Now let's move over to Ontario.
00:08:17.680 In Ontario, the Conservatives are at 44%.
00:08:23.160 Liberals are at 33.
00:08:24.920 This is the number where basically the Liberals lose every single swing riding.
00:08:28.660 They lose every single swing riding,
00:08:30.520 and all they start to hold on to is maybe they get to keep Kingston and the islands.
00:08:34.800 Maybe they keep a London seat.
00:08:36.620 Maybe they keep a couple Mississaugas and a Brampton. 0.79
00:08:39.220 But it's basically just downtown core Toronto that they're holding on to,
00:08:42.780 and maybe even they lose some seats then with an 11-point spread depending on the demographics.
00:08:48.420 Especially Jewish-heavy neighborhoods are really not happy with the Liberals
00:08:52.280 on just how tolerant they have been of terrorism and basically anti-Semitism in the streets.
00:08:58.780 So yeah, that's shaky.
00:09:00.240 I don't think Yara Sachs wins.
00:09:01.800 11-point spread.
00:09:02.900 That's really bad.
00:09:03.860 But let me now take you in the nightmare fuel numbers for the Liberals.
00:09:08.600 Again, they've been trailing sometimes more than 13 points.
00:09:14.500 We saw back like four months ago, they were trailing by 20 points, 23 points.
00:09:19.440 The problem is that was usually the Conservatives just running the score up
00:09:23.120 even harder than they usually do in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
00:09:25.980 So sometimes that throws it off.
00:09:27.500 But the 13-point spread here is in all of the worst places for the Liberals.
00:09:31.780 Because remember, the swing provinces in this country are the Atlantic provinces,
00:09:35.980 Ontario, and then you have BC.
00:09:40.040 Look at BC.
00:09:41.940 In BC, Conservatives are at 49%, Liberals at 32%, and the NDP are at 15%,
00:09:49.460 which should make you not wonder at all why Jagmeet Singh doesn't want an election.
00:09:54.180 That guy's going to lose a seat in Burnaby,
00:09:56.440 and I think there's a good chance he tries to swap into a different riding that he has a better chance in.
00:10:00.700 His riding, in fact, got cut in half after the 2021 election.
00:10:05.020 So he has to choose where he wants to run.
00:10:07.680 Either, I believe, Burnaby North Seymour, or he has to run in Burnaby Centre.
00:10:12.580 Burnaby Centre is the better chance, but it's still a 50-50 shot.
00:10:16.180 And if they're polling at only 15% in BC, he's dead.
00:10:19.080 There's just no Jagmeet Singh is done.
00:10:21.060 He's got to find a new riding or he's going to lose.
00:10:22.920 But 32% for the Liberals, a 17% trail is insane.
00:10:29.300 And here's the other number that's crazy.
00:10:31.280 So BC, that would basically be the Liberals holding on to some downtown Vancouver ridings,
00:10:36.680 maybe a Surrey riding or two, maybe a riding in Victoria.
00:10:39.200 That's it.
00:10:39.800 They're done.
00:10:41.340 Their hubs of support are gone.
00:10:43.360 That's the problem.
00:10:44.300 A few of them are holding up.
00:10:45.480 Montreal is holding up.
00:10:47.060 Toronto is holding up.
00:10:47.960 Some areas of the urban centres around Atlantic Canada will hold up.
00:10:52.560 BC is a complete write-off at this point.
00:10:54.600 For the Liberals, they can't win.
00:10:56.800 Men, this is the real reason the Liberals are losing.
00:11:00.480 Yes, women are tighter, and technically the Liberals could take a big lead with women at some point. 1.00
00:11:06.200 But men are being won by the Conservatives 49%, almost a majority.
00:11:12.260 And I believe this is including undecided, so they probably are winning a majority.
00:11:16.100 And only 30% is going towards the NDP.
00:11:20.740 Sorry, the Liberals.
00:11:21.460 There's only 8% going to the NDP, my goodness.
00:11:23.960 30% going to the Liberals.
00:11:26.320 And I'm going to show you in a second.
00:11:28.220 It doesn't get better with Mark Carney at all.
00:11:32.340 Again, if those stats aren't displaying properly, my goodness, please help me stream yards to stop screwing up the data.
00:11:38.240 But 30% to 49% is the death of the Liberals.
00:11:44.180 And especially, it's men under 45 who will not vote Liberal.
00:11:48.000 There's no ad campaign.
00:11:49.460 There's no policy they could announce.
00:11:51.940 There's nothing.
00:11:52.680 There's no marketing scheme that they can use to win men back. 1.00
00:11:55.340 Because men feel disrespected by the NDP and the Liberals.
00:11:59.300 If you combine the Liberals and the NDP together with men, they are still trailing by 11 points. 0.97
00:12:06.060 That's ridiculous.
00:12:07.900 It's because, again, the Liberals have become a metropolitan, socially progressive, will create a giant social safety net under you to protect you because daddy government needs to be there for you. 0.81
00:12:19.600 And that has very much turned off younger men who are working in the trades especially, who are part of private sector unions in construction and development and all that stuff and maintenance.
00:12:30.760 Those guys will not vote for the Liberals.
00:12:33.140 And even the innovation research polls have proven business Liberals will not vote for the Liberals, especially business Liberal men.
00:12:40.080 Men who work in finance, who are involved in tech startups and whatnot, many of them will not vote Liberal.
00:12:47.620 They might be technically progressives.
00:12:48.600 They may be culturally more liberal.
00:12:51.420 They may like the social programs of Canada. 0.95
00:12:54.320 But the economy sucks so bad they can't vote for you.
00:12:56.920 That is where the Liberals are falling apart. 0.97
00:12:59.280 They can win back women. 1.00
00:13:01.120 They can kind of carve around the sides of some of these regions.
00:13:05.500 But the problem is it's the suburban areas.
00:13:08.400 It's suburban men who will not be showing up for the Liberals at all. 0.62
00:13:12.120 The demographics, the thing is that Conservatives can win women. 1.00
00:13:15.360 Conservatives can eat in to the amount of women that the Liberals are winning easier than the Liberals can eat into the men that the Conservatives are winning.
00:13:24.380 That is the problem.
00:13:25.620 The Liberals are behind and they seek to lose more than the Liberals can.
00:13:30.220 Sorry, the Conservatives have less of a chance of losing their support than the Liberals do, and the Liberals are already trailing.
00:13:37.480 Here is Mark Carney.
00:13:38.880 When you poll Mark Carney, things barely get any better.
00:13:42.400 So assuming he's the leader, the Liberals then go up to 33%.
00:13:45.680 The block stays at 6%, the Conservatives fall a couple points to 41%, and the NDP fall another point to 12%.
00:13:51.780 I don't even think this is accurate.
00:13:54.560 I think there are a lot of people who don't actually know much about Mark Carney. 0.97
00:13:58.980 He is a sucking void that is the color beige. 1.00
00:14:02.040 He is a boring incompetent. 1.00
00:14:04.520 He has no charisma. 1.00
00:14:06.040 He is a gaffe machine. 1.00
00:14:07.640 He is a braggart. 0.99
00:14:08.880 And I think a lot of people are going to grow to hate him. 0.85
00:14:10.760 But even in this poll, it shows that a lot of people are kind of figuring out there's not that much different with Mark Carney in charge.
00:14:17.040 And so in previous polls, when you've said Mark Carney's the leader, the Liberals would jump up 8 to 12 points.
00:14:22.760 It was crazy that if you said it was Mark Carney, then suddenly they're doing really well.
00:14:26.760 And that didn't make sense because his name recognition isn't actually that high.
00:14:30.000 I think it's because nobody knows who he is.
00:14:32.760 When you say, what about Mark Carney's leader?
00:14:35.060 A bunch of people say, I don't know who that is.
00:14:37.280 I'm just going to assume it's someone competent.
00:14:39.180 And then they are more willing to vote Liberal, especially those who maybe voted Liberal in 2021.
00:14:44.520 If you say Mark Carney, I don't know who that is.
00:14:46.300 I'm just going to assume it's 10 times better than Trudeau.
00:14:48.440 So maybe I will vote Liberal.
00:14:50.380 As Mark Carney's propensity to lie has been coming out as many times as his French is displayed to be terrible.
00:14:59.600 That's why I cannot see the bloc doing bad.
00:15:02.200 Mark Carney's French is awful.
00:15:03.440 And compared to other very fluent leaders, his French is kind of clunky.
00:15:10.400 And a lot of people in French debates nationally are going to find it grating.
00:15:14.480 But so moving on, though, what we have is that the Liberals, even with Mark Carney, are not doing any better where it matters.
00:15:23.780 Because Atlantic Canada, they actually only do 1% better, and actually the Conservatives start crawling up on them.
00:15:29.080 In Ontario, he does a little, he does much better.
00:15:32.260 It's still trailing by six points.
00:15:35.280 Yeah, it's fair enough.
00:15:36.260 He's doing better.
00:15:36.820 But in BC, he is still 17 points behind.
00:15:39.900 It does not improve in BC.
00:15:40.980 So really, by putting Mark Carney in, you are betting that somehow Quebecers are somehow going to start liking him all of a sudden.
00:15:47.920 This one does show he gets a pop over Trudeau. 0.84
00:15:49.980 But again, most people don't know his French sucks and that he's from Edmonton. 0.97
00:15:54.980 Especially men. 0.98
00:15:55.860 Look, with men, Liberals are doing 3% better. 0.63
00:15:59.740 Conservatives are doing 3% worse.
00:16:01.340 But that is still a 13% lead with men.
00:16:05.040 And actually, with women, the Conservatives start doing better if Mark Carney is in. 0.98
00:16:12.260 Because there's a lot of women who like Justin Trudeau, and that was part of Justin Trudeau's progressive, orange, liberal base.
00:16:19.420 A lot of women liked how progressive Trudeau was.
00:16:21.880 And as soon as you swap out Trudeau with someone less overtly progressive, even though Mark Carney is more of a radical on so many issues,
00:16:29.400 a lot of women go away because they see this as like a betrayal. 1.00
00:16:33.620 Certain very progressive women see this as a betrayal. 1.00
00:16:36.440 And I think they actually might go NDP.
00:16:38.540 Again, that hasn't shaken out yet because I think NDP supporters are so depressed because they just don't care about this election.
00:16:44.300 We have seen polls where literally more than half of NDP supporters think Jagmeet Singh is a complete putz and they don't want to show up.
00:16:50.980 That will change as the election gets closer.
00:16:53.000 A lot of people tend to just go back with their default party.
00:16:55.740 And that's why I think it's pretty ridiculous to think the NDP is only in a clock and at 11%.
00:17:00.640 They're going to do better than that.
00:17:02.740 And I think Mark Carney ends up trying to upgrade the liberals.
00:17:06.660 Like, again, I'm a conservative.
00:17:08.660 I want to see these guys lose.
00:17:10.160 I'm just trying to analyze this from an objective perspective of really trying to dig into what motivates voters.
00:17:18.320 This is what I was saying before they even got rid of Trudeau.
00:17:20.920 I don't think you gain support by getting rid of Trudeau because you trade Trudeau's socially progressive voters who are really going to show up hard because they like how socially progressive Trudeau is.
00:17:31.800 When you get rid of him and you swap in Mark Carney, yeah, you get some of the nervous middle class voters who usually vote liberal may be back willing to vote liberal again because Mark Carney seems like a competent economic manager.
00:17:44.280 He's not. He's been the economic advisor for four years. He sucked.
00:17:47.820 But some of those people come back. 0.98
00:17:49.820 But, you know, I guess a good way of putting it, if you know who she is, the Dina Sharif, the crazy activist left liberals will stop showing up if Trudeau is no longer the prime ministerial candidate, which means this entire liberal leadership race has been a practice in futility.
00:18:06.280 The best it's done for the liberals is maybe help them raise more money, but who cares?
00:18:10.700 You're going to have to basically spend a bunch of money just to rebrand the party for Mark Carney.
00:18:15.160 And again, you don't know if the guy's gaffes are going to catch up to him so badly that you'll wish you had Justin Trudeau because you're going to lose anyways, at least lose with Justin Trudeau.
00:18:23.660 And at least then he can't threaten to come back to take over your party again because he can claim that, well, I never lost, so why not run me again in eight years?
00:18:32.400 Sounds a bit preposterous, but what else is Justin Trudeau going to do?
00:18:36.240 He'll take one term off to go surfing or whatever, and then I think he actually might try and come back.
00:18:40.800 And so with Carney, I think it's almost too obvious of a move.
00:18:48.600 People don't like the economy.
00:18:50.360 People lost confidence in government on health care and on crime.
00:18:54.260 So let's have a button-down accountant be the leader of the party to bring people back because, you know, he looks like a calculator, so maybe he knows how to do the public finances.
00:19:03.820 He doesn't, he's terrible, and I think people are going to realize when all of his other semiconductor comments that, ooh, America actually relies on Canada for most of its semiconductors and we import 0.8% of their semiconductors to them, a lot of that's going to start coming up.
00:19:20.460 The fact that he has been a radical in policy, he backs central bank digital currency, he backs, you know, carbon tax tariffs, he backs, you know, he's backed UBI in the past.
00:19:31.680 He was the guy who was the architect behind the GST-HST freeze.
00:19:36.080 He can't run away from that forever.
00:19:37.640 He can keep trying to steal credit for other things, but even that has caused him scandals where Harper has to come out and say, no, you're not going to stand on the grave of Jim Flaherty and pretend you did all the stuff that he in fact did.
00:19:50.760 So yeah, I think Polyev is going to basically clean this guy's clock.
00:19:54.500 The polling shows that the momentary sugar high the liberals had upon thinking maybe we could get a super good leader by getting rid of Trudeau is mostly subsiding and people are realizing that they are basically getting a beige colored work portfolio as their new leader.
00:20:12.040 He is just not anybody that anyone is going to, you know, fight hard for at the doors, and that's the problem.
00:20:19.080 You needed charisma, and they end up rolling the dice for somebody to give them that, like, academic feel.
00:20:25.960 And they did that with Michael Ignatieff, and they fell on their faces hard, and I think we're about to see a repeat of that.
00:20:32.000 Anyways, so that's it for me today, guys.
00:20:34.600 Hopefully the video came out well this time.
00:20:36.440 My goodness, I've done this so many times, and I'm being driven up the wall.
00:20:39.680 So hopefully it worked out, and you guys actually saw the data I wanted to screen share.
00:20:44.840 I tried to find another way of showing the other data in the beginning of the video through screenshots I uploaded.
00:20:52.120 Hopefully it worked.
00:20:53.360 I want to tear my hair out trying to make this video.
00:20:55.900 Literally one of the versions of it was like 25 minutes, then the next one was 17, then the next one was 19.
00:21:00.960 All three of those were corrupted, and this is my fourth time shooting this.
00:21:04.400 And there have been retakes even in these versions.
00:21:06.780 So like the video, subscribe the channel, leave a comment, and I'll see you guys next time.