In this episode, Wyatt Claypool breaks down the current polling numbers on the eve of Canada's federal election. The polls are very tight, but there are some bright spots for the Conservatives. Is it possible that the Conservative base is actually turning out in droves?
00:00:00.000Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Because this is my show, of course, we're going to be breaking down the state of the polls in Canada on the eve of Canada's federal election. To put it in a nutshell for people who don't want to watch the entire video, the polls are very tight, but there are some very bright spots for the Conservatives. This is going to be a turnout election. Who can turn out their base more than the other party in the regions that matter?
00:00:27.520Now, the Conservatives have generally been trailing in the polls the entire election. At the same time, though, whenever you do confidence intervals, or like I'm about to show, whenever you ask people who's your neighbor voting for, the Conservatives are doing much better.
00:00:41.660I think that this election has the capacity to have one of the biggest national polling misses in Canadian political history, because there is just so many pressures to not say you're voting Conservative, and the Conservative base has actually become very minority-heavy, people who are very unlikely to take polls, and I don't think pollsters have properly adapted to this.
00:01:02.080Before I get into the polling details, I just want to remind you guys, if you like my show, if you've been liking my federal election coverage, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a subscriber, help me get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December of this year, and leave a comment with what you think, or how you think the election is going to go, what do you think the popular vote percentage is going to be, what do you think the seat count is going to be between the Conservatives and the Liberals?
00:01:29.760I would say my prediction right now is that the Conservatives could win anywhere from 135 seats, which would obviously be a loss, up to around 165 seats.
00:01:42.440The Conservatives could win a majority, I just don't think the Liberals or Conservatives are going to win a majority.
00:01:47.700I think there is a 10% shot in this election that either of the parties pass the point where they have a majority government.
00:01:54.240I actually would think that the Liberals have a better chance at a majority, but again, we're talking about in a 10% shot, maybe it's a 6 out of that 10 for the Liberals compared to a 4 out of 10 for the Conservatives to win the majority.
00:02:08.980And again, same thing goes for the Liberals.
00:02:10.780I think they could lose a bunch of ridings and come in with only 130, or they could come in all the way up at like 167.
00:02:19.480But now, let's get into some polls I've talked about before, because they're going to flavor the other data we're going to go over today.
00:02:26.160And first up is the Juno News neighbor poll.
00:02:29.940Why I want to talk about this is when we get into other polls that are very tight, remember that this is how things tend to shake out when you ask a slightly different question.
00:02:38.520In Juno News in their final normal poll, just asking people, who are you voting for?
00:02:43.600It came down to 39 Liberal, 39 Conservative, and like 10 NDP.
00:02:48.900When you ask people, who's your neighbor going to vote for?
00:02:51.600Which tends to overcome the shy Tory effect, Conservatives not wanting to say they're voting Conservative or they're not picking up the phone, and also minority voters who are very unlikely to take a poll.
00:03:02.460This kind of overcomes it because you're asking someone in the community, well, who's the person next to you?
00:03:08.520And right now, the Juno News poll had it at 40% Conservative, 38 Liberal, 11 NDP when you ask that question.
00:03:16.960And then Abacus Data, who their final poll has been plus two for the Liberal Party, when they asked people, who is your neighbor voting for?
00:03:26.240The results turned into Conservative Party, 44% Liberal Party, 40%, which is far better than the original result of 40 Conservative and 42 Liberal.
00:03:37.420So yes, I think that this is actually going to be very, I think this is actually going to play out on Election Day.
00:03:44.580I do, if I am ballparking the chances for the Conservative minority government, I think it's a little bit better than a 50% chance for them.
00:03:52.460The thing that the Liberals have the advantage of is when you actually look at age demographics, it's just true that older voters tend to be more likely to vote Liberal.
00:04:01.680If you're an older voter and you're watching this video, obviously you're voting Conservative, but many boomer age people are voting Liberal and they tend to turn out and vote more than younger voters.
00:04:11.460So we need very, very good middle age turnout and youth turnout tomorrow, as well as it would be good for basically everyone to turn out, because if we can keep it tight with older voters, then we are in business because we have a very strong lead with people between the ages of 35 and 45 and 46 and 55.
00:04:33.960And so now I want to jump over to some other stats and some new polls that have just come out recently.
00:04:40.060Let's actually first start with this new poll from Innovative Research, who's kind of been a little bit all over the place in the last few days, but that's okay.
00:04:48.200It just happens with the sample sometimes.
00:06:28.340My goodness, Jagmeet Singh is going to lose his seat.
00:06:31.260This means in Ontario, if we assume the Chinese-Canadian polling results in B.C. are going to be similar to Ontario,
00:06:38.600this means Markham is in play, Danforth, Richmond Hill, and many other smaller municipalities with significant Chinese-Canadian populations.
00:06:48.440Some of them have pluralities, some of them, like in Richmond, are actually majority Chinese or Asian-Canadian.
00:06:55.820And this is also the big strength the Conservatives have going into Election Day.
00:07:00.260They have gotten new minority group voters who are very in favor of their programs on crime, on social issues, on economics,
00:07:07.940that are in concentrated areas where the Liberals usually won the ridings handily.
00:07:12.900I even have some personal experience in the riding of Nepean, where Mark Carney is running against the Conservative candidate Barbara Ball.
00:07:20.520Mark Carney, of course, kicked out Chandra Aria for that seat so that he could run in it,
00:07:25.080which actually has also ticked off a lot of Hindu-Canadians in the riding.
00:10:58.580So based on the polling projections of the Toronto Star as of yesterday, things are going quite well for the Conservatives.
00:11:06.040But now let's go over to the recent poll by David Coleto and Abacus Research, which has this as a very tight race, leaning a little bit Liberal.
00:11:21.320But remember, I just went over their neighbor polling.
00:11:24.260When the Liberals are two points up, when you ask people who their neighbor's voting for, the Conservatives are actually four points up.
00:11:30.920So this is how the course of the election has gone since late March.
00:11:34.640Started off with a slight Conservative lead, Liberals pulled ahead, Conservatives pulled ahead, Liberals pulled ahead, a tide, Liberals pulled ahead.
00:11:41.340And now it looks like basically we are back in that stage of the election where the Conservatives are coming up and the Liberals are coming back down.
00:11:50.820So this is a big turnout election, as I keep saying.
00:11:54.800If the Conservatives can turn their people out in the places that matter, if minority voters show up for the Conservatives,
00:12:00.600like in the Chinese community in Richmond, in Markham, like with the Indo community, Hindu Canadians and Sikh Canadians in Brampton, in Mississauga, in Surrey,
00:12:12.060there is a very clear path to victory.
00:12:13.740The Conservatives already have some clear pickups they can get on Vancouver Island.
00:12:17.280They can get clear pickups in the southwest of Ontario.
00:12:19.940I think they're going to grab up a couple of seats in Ottawa.
00:12:22.180And if they can even keep it tight, even keep it within 10 points of the Liberals winning.
00:12:27.920So if the Liberals win Atlantic Canada by 10 points, that's actually not a good result for the Liberals because they want to win Atlantic Canada by like 15 points, 17 points.
00:12:37.580If it comes within 10, that means rural Maritimes probably are going Conservative.
00:12:41.760So yeah, right now, I would just encourage all of you, make sure you go out and vote.
00:12:48.440Let's look at some of these results that have come up, some of the detailed results.
00:12:54.820Central argument for the Conservatives, when you ask Conservative voters or you ask voters in general, what is the Conservatives' message?
00:13:01.940It's actually a little bit all over the place, but not in a bad way.
00:13:05.080It's all about reform, about economic prosperity, about freedom, all that sort of thing.
00:13:10.600But when you ask Liberal voters and Conservatives what the Liberal campaign is all about, it's only about Trump.
00:13:16.540I find that so sad in an election that should be taken seriously, that there are people in this country who will vote because they think it might make Donald Trump upset.
00:13:27.500If you're a Liberal out there, it's not going to make Donald Trump cry if you vote for Mark Carney.
00:13:32.260He, in fact, endorsed the Liberal Party, not once, not twice, but thrice.
00:13:37.280So, why are you voting for the party that Donald Trump would rather deal with?
00:13:42.200It's almost like he's indicating they're pathetic and he couldn't get a better trade deal out of them.
00:13:46.500Carney can't even keep straight what Trump says on the phone because he keeps flip-flopping whether he was respectful or he was disrespectful, depending on how his polls are going that day.
00:13:57.280Now, I just want to jump up to the preferred prime minister polls as well.
00:14:02.860Actually, you know, let's go to the accessible voters, actually preferred prime minister.
00:14:07.520This is the one that's actually gotten quite tight since the beginning.
00:14:11.080Polyev has always been trailing in this metric, but you saw in the middle of the race, Carney take a very big lead at one point, leading Polyev on the preferred prime minister rating by nine points.
00:14:21.180Now, they're within three, and remember, you're always going to get a bunch of block and NDP voters saying, oh, of course I prefer Carney, because they know their guy's not actually going to become the prime minister, so they'll pick the next best thing if you're on the left, which would be Mark Carney.
00:14:38.920And so, the fact that Polyev is that close is a very, very good result for him.
00:14:42.880Now, there's just one more thing I want to talk about, and that is the accessible voter pools, because it is quite good for the conservatives.
00:14:52.720Here are accessible voters between the two parties from, this is November 15, all the way up till now.
00:15:02.240So, in November of 2015, shortly after Justin Trudeau was elected, the liberals had 70% of people willing to consider voting for them, only 42% for the conservatives.
00:15:13.280But now, let's jump ahead to December, the mid-December, when Justin Trudeau was in trouble.
00:15:20.100The liberals dipped their accessible voter pool all the way down to only 36%, and the conservatives were at 52%, and by the next week, they were at 55%.
00:15:28.240Since then, obviously, the liberals had a big rocketing up effect, because Trudeau stepped down, and there's a leadership race, and the liberals get to pretend they're any different.
00:15:37.860But as you'll see, it then starts to fall back down to earth as more people realize the liberals have not changed.
00:15:43.840The funny thing is, you take December's numbers for the conservatives, and you go to now, the conservatives' accessible voter pool has not changed.
00:15:52.460Despite all of the rhetoric that people do not like pure Polyev, and they can't vote for him,
00:15:58.240still half of Canadians are considering voting for them.
00:16:01.000And remember, the liberals always tend to have the advantage on accessible voter pools,
00:16:05.540because they have the Greens and the liberals in the bloc who are more ideologically similar to them,
00:16:10.560so naturally, those voters are more likely to say they'll consider voting liberal compared to Canadians on the right.
00:16:16.320And even some conservatives will consider voting liberal if they're particularly middle-of-the-road red Tory.
00:16:22.700So yeah, all this is looking quite good for the conservatives.
00:16:25.520I will remind you, guys, if you're thinking about voting for the PPC, because I'm going to stick it to the system.
00:16:31.420The PPC aren't even running candidates in over two-thirds of the ridings.
00:16:35.160So if you live in a riding and there's no PPC candidate, guys, vote conservative.
00:16:39.540Because you can't say, well, Polyev would have messed up anyways if he was prime minister.
00:16:43.340Let him be prime minister so that you can prove us wrong.
00:16:48.460Because even if you think he's still not good enough for you, is he better than Mark Carney and Trudeau?
00:16:54.280Because you're never going to find utopia in the electoral system.
00:16:58.440You're never going to find the perfect candidate.
00:17:00.480In fact, Maxime Bernier isn't even trying.
00:17:02.820So if you're voting PPC, my goodness, you're voting for a guy who takes your donations,
00:17:07.180doesn't actually campaign hard, literally sits in his hotel rooms most of the time,
00:17:11.000and just because he has good things to post on the website, you're going to support him instead.
00:17:15.560I guess more power to you if you want to do that.
00:17:18.280It's kind of a serious election, and I would say this to anyone,
00:17:21.860considering voting for the Libertarians or the Christian Heritage Party
00:17:25.520or some sort of Freedom Party or the United Party of Canada.