The National Telegraph - Wyatt Claypool - April 27, 2025


Polls show clear path to Conservative Victory! Carney Liberals not confident

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Wyatt Claypool
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Mark Carney Polyev Justin Trudeau Donald Trump Robert Beans Barbara Ball Sikh Canadians Maxime Bernier Jagmeet Singh Richmond Hill Chandra Aria Toronto Star David Coletto Doug Ford Danforth Burnaby Surrey
Liberals' new attack on Pierre Poilievre backfires in seconds! Liberal election LIES have become intolerable!

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, Wyatt Claypool breaks down the current polling numbers on the eve of Canada's federal election. The polls are very tight, but there are some bright spots for the Conservatives. Is it possible that the Conservative base is actually turning out in droves?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
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00:00:00.000 Hey guys, Wyatt Claypool here. Because this is my show, of course, we're going to be breaking down the state of the polls in Canada on the eve of Canada's federal election. To put it in a nutshell for people who don't want to watch the entire video, the polls are very tight, but there are some very bright spots for the Conservatives. This is going to be a turnout election. Who can turn out their base more than the other party in the regions that matter?
00:00:27.520 Now, the Conservatives have generally been trailing in the polls the entire election. At the same time, though, whenever you do confidence intervals, or like I'm about to show, whenever you ask people who's your neighbor voting for, the Conservatives are doing much better.
00:00:41.660 I think that this election has the capacity to have one of the biggest national polling misses in Canadian political history, because there is just so many pressures to not say you're voting Conservative, and the Conservative base has actually become very minority-heavy, people who are very unlikely to take polls, and I don't think pollsters have properly adapted to this.
00:01:02.080 Before I get into the polling details, I just want to remind you guys, if you like my show, if you've been liking my federal election coverage, make sure to leave a like on this video, subscribe to the channel if you're not yet a subscriber, help me get to 100,000 subscribers by mid-December of this year, and leave a comment with what you think, or how you think the election is going to go, what do you think the popular vote percentage is going to be, what do you think the seat count is going to be between the Conservatives and the Liberals?
00:01:29.760 I would say my prediction right now is that the Conservatives could win anywhere from 135 seats, which would obviously be a loss, up to around 165 seats.
00:01:42.440 The Conservatives could win a majority, I just don't think the Liberals or Conservatives are going to win a majority.
00:01:47.700 I think there is a 10% shot in this election that either of the parties pass the point where they have a majority government.
00:01:54.240 I actually would think that the Liberals have a better chance at a majority, but again, we're talking about in a 10% shot, maybe it's a 6 out of that 10 for the Liberals compared to a 4 out of 10 for the Conservatives to win the majority.
00:02:08.980 And again, same thing goes for the Liberals.
00:02:10.780 I think they could lose a bunch of ridings and come in with only 130, or they could come in all the way up at like 167.
00:02:19.480 But now, let's get into some polls I've talked about before, because they're going to flavor the other data we're going to go over today.
00:02:26.160 And first up is the Juno News neighbor poll.
00:02:29.940 Why I want to talk about this is when we get into other polls that are very tight, remember that this is how things tend to shake out when you ask a slightly different question.
00:02:38.520 In Juno News in their final normal poll, just asking people, who are you voting for?
00:02:43.600 It came down to 39 Liberal, 39 Conservative, and like 10 NDP.
00:02:48.900 When you ask people, who's your neighbor going to vote for?
00:02:51.600 Which tends to overcome the shy Tory effect, Conservatives not wanting to say they're voting Conservative or they're not picking up the phone, and also minority voters who are very unlikely to take a poll.
00:03:02.460 This kind of overcomes it because you're asking someone in the community, well, who's the person next to you?
00:03:06.520 Who do you think they're voting for?
00:03:08.520 And right now, the Juno News poll had it at 40% Conservative, 38 Liberal, 11 NDP when you ask that question.
00:03:16.960 And then Abacus Data, who their final poll has been plus two for the Liberal Party, when they asked people, who is your neighbor voting for?
00:03:26.240 The results turned into Conservative Party, 44% Liberal Party, 40%, which is far better than the original result of 40 Conservative and 42 Liberal.
00:03:37.420 So yes, I think that this is actually going to be very, I think this is actually going to play out on Election Day.
00:03:44.580 I do, if I am ballparking the chances for the Conservative minority government, I think it's a little bit better than a 50% chance for them.
00:03:52.460 The thing that the Liberals have the advantage of is when you actually look at age demographics, it's just true that older voters tend to be more likely to vote Liberal.
00:04:01.680 If you're an older voter and you're watching this video, obviously you're voting Conservative, but many boomer age people are voting Liberal and they tend to turn out and vote more than younger voters.
00:04:11.460 So we need very, very good middle age turnout and youth turnout tomorrow, as well as it would be good for basically everyone to turn out, because if we can keep it tight with older voters, then we are in business because we have a very strong lead with people between the ages of 35 and 45 and 46 and 55.
00:04:32.240 Those voters are very Conservative.
00:04:33.960 And so now I want to jump over to some other stats and some new polls that have just come out recently.
00:04:40.060 Let's actually first start with this new poll from Innovative Research, who's kind of been a little bit all over the place in the last few days, but that's okay.
00:04:48.200 It just happens with the sample sometimes.
00:04:49.900 I think they generally do a good job.
00:04:51.680 Sometimes they might just have a more Liberal-heavy sample one day.
00:04:54.940 But they did specifically a poll of Chinese-Canadian voters in British Columbia.
00:05:01.020 And this is extremely encouraging information.
00:05:04.160 This guy, Christie, says Innovative did polling of Chinese-Canadians in B.C. specifically and their voting intentions linked below.
00:05:12.520 And look at this.
00:05:14.180 Conservatives are at 43% with Chinese-Canadians in B.C.
00:05:19.260 Liberals are at 34%.
00:05:21.320 That is fantastic news for the Conservatives.
00:05:24.220 Because do you know how much Chinese-Canadians voted for the Liberal Party back in 2021?
00:05:30.160 They voted for the Liberals with a margin of about 13 to 15 points.
00:05:34.920 So 15 points higher than what the Conservatives got is what the Liberals got with Chinese-Canadian voters.
00:05:41.300 In this election in B.C., where the most CCP pressure would probably be on Chinese-Canadians to vote Liberal,
00:05:48.640 the Liberals are falling behind the Conservatives by 9 points.
00:05:52.440 This is fantastic.
00:05:54.240 And again, I could even see this being a bit of an undershoot for the Conservatives.
00:05:58.740 Because if you're in the Chinese-Canadian diaspora, do you want to admit that you're voting Conservative on the phone 1.00
00:06:05.120 if you don't exactly know how polls and their data privacy works,
00:06:09.120 considering that you could have family back in China and the CCP might come after you and put pressure on you for voting Conservative?
00:06:14.600 So this is fantastic.
00:06:15.880 This, specifically, is going to free up a lot of ridings in B.C. for the Conservatives that they have not won in quite a while.
00:06:23.520 Both Richmond ridings are in play.
00:06:25.500 Delta is in play.
00:06:26.880 Burnaby is definitely in play.
00:06:28.340 My goodness, Jagmeet Singh is going to lose his seat.
00:06:31.260 This means in Ontario, if we assume the Chinese-Canadian polling results in B.C. are going to be similar to Ontario,
00:06:38.600 this means Markham is in play, Danforth, Richmond Hill, and many other smaller municipalities with significant Chinese-Canadian populations.
00:06:48.440 Some of them have pluralities, some of them, like in Richmond, are actually majority Chinese or Asian-Canadian.
00:06:54.420 So that is fantastic.
00:06:55.820 And this is also the big strength the Conservatives have going into Election Day.
00:07:00.260 They have gotten new minority group voters who are very in favor of their programs on crime, on social issues, on economics,
00:07:07.940 that are in concentrated areas where the Liberals usually won the ridings handily.
00:07:12.900 I even have some personal experience in the riding of Nepean, where Mark Carney is running against the Conservative candidate Barbara Ball.
00:07:20.520 Mark Carney, of course, kicked out Chandra Aria for that seat so that he could run in it, 1.00
00:07:25.080 which actually has also ticked off a lot of Hindu-Canadians in the riding.
00:07:28.120 We're not going to vote Liberal now.
00:07:29.960 But there is this big section in the southwest of the riding of Nepean that is plurality, or very at least significantly Chinese-Canadian.
00:07:38.940 And that riding, that part of the riding, that poll area, those several polls, went very, very liberal in the 2021 election.
00:07:47.540 It's the reddest part of the riding.
00:07:49.420 I have heard in this election that big southwest chunk of the riding is going blue, like deep blue,
00:07:56.560 because Chinese-Canadians, like many, but especially Chinese-Canadians,
00:08:00.840 hate the drug policies of the Liberals and they hate the crime policies of the Liberals.
00:08:04.260 And it's been very beneficial that Barbara Ball has experience as a police officer with over 20 years on the force.
00:08:11.180 So that is some good news there.
00:08:13.560 And now let's move up to some other stats, some new polling that's just come out.
00:08:18.360 This was an interesting thing that this Robert Benzie guy had posted just this morning, or actually last night.
00:08:25.020 He had said,
00:08:25.560 New, the signal, the Toronto Star's polling aggregator, has been updated.
00:08:31.420 April 26th has this race, 40.8% Liberal, 40.1% Conservative, 8.8 NDP, 6.7 Block, 1.8 Green, 1.1 PPC.
00:08:44.000 This is fantastic results for the Conservatives, because if they are this close with the Liberals and the Bloc is at 6.7,
00:08:52.480 it means the Liberals are getting a bunch of new votes in Quebec, but they're not winning any new seats,
00:08:58.280 which means in the rest of the country, they're going to be well below 40% of the vote, probably around, you know, 36, 35%.
00:09:05.940 Whereas the Conservatives who don't do that well in Quebec, although they do win seats in concentrated areas,
00:09:11.340 they'll probably get 23, 24% Quebec, but they'll be at like 45% or 43% in the rest of the country.
00:09:20.100 So if this is true, based on all the 338 simulators I've done, the Conservatives would be doing very well.
00:09:26.760 Because again, remember, that 6.7% of the Bloc is all concentrated in Quebec,
00:09:31.200 and 6.7% would result in them getting over 30% of the vote, which is enough to keep the Liberals boxed into Montreal
00:09:38.460 and basically winning no new votes.
00:09:41.060 Let's actually just quickly, just for the fun of it, plug all this stuff into the 338 simulator so I can show you what I mean here.
00:09:48.320 I'm going to bring this back up. So it's 40.1 for the Conservatives.
00:09:55.100 I'll actually just bring this up on screen so you guys can see it as I'm doing it.
00:09:59.600 I don't want to keep you in the dark.
00:10:01.200 So I have the Liberals at 40.8. The Conservatives are at 40.1.
00:10:08.640 Let's move the NDP as Robert has it to 8.8, which is actually a little bit higher.
00:10:15.520 They have the Greens, Toronto Star, at 1.8.
00:10:19.560 So they get a decimal point higher.
00:10:22.200 We have the Bloc at 6.7.
00:10:25.880 And we have the PPC at 1.1.
00:10:28.780 And there's still a margin of 0.7% of the vote that's not going to any of the major parties.
00:10:33.760 And that's to be expected.
00:10:35.020 There's always a bunch of independents that run.
00:10:36.940 There's a bunch of other small minor parties like the Christian Heritage, Libertarians, Marxist-Leninists
00:10:41.720 who get a smattering of votes here and there.
00:10:44.300 So let's see what the results are with this seat projection.
00:10:46.940 About what I had actually kind of expect from this election.
00:10:51.320 148 seats Liberal, 154 Conservative, 10 NDP, 1 Green, and 30 for the Bloc Québécois.
00:10:58.580 So based on the polling projections of the Toronto Star as of yesterday, things are going quite well for the Conservatives.
00:11:06.040 But now let's go over to the recent poll by David Coleto and Abacus Research, which has this as a very tight race, leaning a little bit Liberal.
00:11:21.320 But remember, I just went over their neighbor polling.
00:11:24.260 When the Liberals are two points up, when you ask people who their neighbor's voting for, the Conservatives are actually four points up.
00:11:30.920 So this is how the course of the election has gone since late March.
00:11:34.640 Started off with a slight Conservative lead, Liberals pulled ahead, Conservatives pulled ahead, Liberals pulled ahead, a tide, Liberals pulled ahead.
00:11:41.340 And now it looks like basically we are back in that stage of the election where the Conservatives are coming up and the Liberals are coming back down.
00:11:50.820 So this is a big turnout election, as I keep saying.
00:11:54.800 If the Conservatives can turn their people out in the places that matter, if minority voters show up for the Conservatives,
00:12:00.600 like in the Chinese community in Richmond, in Markham, like with the Indo community, Hindu Canadians and Sikh Canadians in Brampton, in Mississauga, in Surrey,
00:12:12.060 there is a very clear path to victory.
00:12:13.740 The Conservatives already have some clear pickups they can get on Vancouver Island.
00:12:17.280 They can get clear pickups in the southwest of Ontario.
00:12:19.940 I think they're going to grab up a couple of seats in Ottawa.
00:12:22.180 And if they can even keep it tight, even keep it within 10 points of the Liberals winning.
00:12:27.920 So if the Liberals win Atlantic Canada by 10 points, that's actually not a good result for the Liberals because they want to win Atlantic Canada by like 15 points, 17 points.
00:12:37.580 If it comes within 10, that means rural Maritimes probably are going Conservative.
00:12:41.760 So yeah, right now, I would just encourage all of you, make sure you go out and vote.
00:12:48.440 Let's look at some of these results that have come up, some of the detailed results.
00:12:52.680 I think this is kind of interesting.
00:12:54.820 Central argument for the Conservatives, when you ask Conservative voters or you ask voters in general, what is the Conservatives' message?
00:13:01.940 It's actually a little bit all over the place, but not in a bad way.
00:13:05.080 It's all about reform, about economic prosperity, about freedom, all that sort of thing.
00:13:10.600 But when you ask Liberal voters and Conservatives what the Liberal campaign is all about, it's only about Trump.
00:13:16.540 I find that so sad in an election that should be taken seriously, that there are people in this country who will vote because they think it might make Donald Trump upset.
00:13:27.500 If you're a Liberal out there, it's not going to make Donald Trump cry if you vote for Mark Carney.
00:13:32.260 He, in fact, endorsed the Liberal Party, not once, not twice, but thrice.
00:13:37.280 So, why are you voting for the party that Donald Trump would rather deal with? 0.98
00:13:42.200 It's almost like he's indicating they're pathetic and he couldn't get a better trade deal out of them. 0.96
00:13:46.500 Carney can't even keep straight what Trump says on the phone because he keeps flip-flopping whether he was respectful or he was disrespectful, depending on how his polls are going that day. 0.98
00:13:55.620 It's silly. 0.95
00:13:56.760 It's maddening. 0.83
00:13:57.280 Now, I just want to jump up to the preferred prime minister polls as well.
00:14:02.860 Actually, you know, let's go to the accessible voters, actually preferred prime minister.
00:14:07.520 This is the one that's actually gotten quite tight since the beginning.
00:14:11.080 Polyev has always been trailing in this metric, but you saw in the middle of the race, Carney take a very big lead at one point, leading Polyev on the preferred prime minister rating by nine points.
00:14:21.180 Now, they're within three, and remember, you're always going to get a bunch of block and NDP voters saying, oh, of course I prefer Carney, because they know their guy's not actually going to become the prime minister, so they'll pick the next best thing if you're on the left, which would be Mark Carney.
00:14:38.920 And so, the fact that Polyev is that close is a very, very good result for him.
00:14:42.880 Now, there's just one more thing I want to talk about, and that is the accessible voter pools, because it is quite good for the conservatives.
00:14:52.720 Here are accessible voters between the two parties from, this is November 15, all the way up till now.
00:15:02.240 So, in November of 2015, shortly after Justin Trudeau was elected, the liberals had 70% of people willing to consider voting for them, only 42% for the conservatives.
00:15:13.280 But now, let's jump ahead to December, the mid-December, when Justin Trudeau was in trouble.
00:15:20.100 The liberals dipped their accessible voter pool all the way down to only 36%, and the conservatives were at 52%, and by the next week, they were at 55%.
00:15:28.240 Since then, obviously, the liberals had a big rocketing up effect, because Trudeau stepped down, and there's a leadership race, and the liberals get to pretend they're any different.
00:15:37.860 But as you'll see, it then starts to fall back down to earth as more people realize the liberals have not changed.
00:15:43.840 The funny thing is, you take December's numbers for the conservatives, and you go to now, the conservatives' accessible voter pool has not changed.
00:15:52.460 Despite all of the rhetoric that people do not like pure Polyev, and they can't vote for him,
00:15:58.240 still half of Canadians are considering voting for them.
00:16:01.000 And remember, the liberals always tend to have the advantage on accessible voter pools,
00:16:05.540 because they have the Greens and the liberals in the bloc who are more ideologically similar to them,
00:16:10.560 so naturally, those voters are more likely to say they'll consider voting liberal compared to Canadians on the right.
00:16:16.320 And even some conservatives will consider voting liberal if they're particularly middle-of-the-road red Tory.
00:16:22.700 So yeah, all this is looking quite good for the conservatives.
00:16:25.520 I will remind you, guys, if you're thinking about voting for the PPC, because I'm going to stick it to the system.
00:16:31.420 The PPC aren't even running candidates in over two-thirds of the ridings.
00:16:35.160 So if you live in a riding and there's no PPC candidate, guys, vote conservative.
00:16:39.540 Because you can't say, well, Polyev would have messed up anyways if he was prime minister.
00:16:43.340 Let him be prime minister so that you can prove us wrong.
00:16:48.460 Because even if you think he's still not good enough for you, is he better than Mark Carney and Trudeau?
00:16:54.280 Because you're never going to find utopia in the electoral system.
00:16:58.440 You're never going to find the perfect candidate.
00:17:00.480 In fact, Maxime Bernier isn't even trying.
00:17:02.820 So if you're voting PPC, my goodness, you're voting for a guy who takes your donations,
00:17:07.180 doesn't actually campaign hard, literally sits in his hotel rooms most of the time,
00:17:11.000 and just because he has good things to post on the website, you're going to support him instead.
00:17:15.560 I guess more power to you if you want to do that.
00:17:18.280 It's kind of a serious election, and I would say this to anyone,
00:17:21.860 considering voting for the Libertarians or the Christian Heritage Party
00:17:25.520 or some sort of Freedom Party or the United Party of Canada.
00:17:30.500 You're not doing anything here.
00:17:32.300 You're voting for people who aren't actually building anything.
00:17:35.180 I don't even mind small parties.
00:17:36.500 I support small parties in other elections.
00:17:38.760 Like in Ontario, I support the new Blue Party.
00:17:41.440 I even flew out on my own expense to help them.
00:17:44.940 Paid for my own flight, my own hotel, or my own food.
00:17:47.500 And then I got a lift from people to drive around,
00:17:50.140 dropping lid on doors and talking to people.
00:17:52.420 Because I support small parties when they're trying to build something real,
00:17:56.240 and when they're opposed to conservative alternatives who are just not good.
00:18:00.520 Like Doug Ford's just not conservative.
00:18:02.340 There's no argument for him being really any better than the Liberals.
00:18:05.620 Truly.
00:18:05.980 You don't have to be hyperbolic to make that case.
00:18:08.760 Where I find the PPC guys constantly have to delve into hyperbole,
00:18:13.060 frankly twisting the truth, and just making up stuff about Polyev that isn't true.
00:18:16.700 Oh, he's WEF.
00:18:17.800 His name was once on the website.
00:18:19.780 Yeah.
00:18:20.260 Because they syndicated an article he wrote for the Financial Post one time,
00:18:24.120 because the WEF likes to do that so they can put people's bios on their website
00:18:27.400 as if they have an association. 0.99
00:18:29.360 The WEF is a pathetic grifter organization 0.95
00:18:31.900 who will try and use people's good names that they did not never lent to them. 0.80
00:18:36.500 Anyway, so that should be it for me today, guys.
00:18:39.660 Vote.
00:18:40.180 That is the only message of the day.
00:18:41.880 Vote.
00:18:42.300 If you have younger kids who are not voting, make them vote.
00:18:46.120 Get them to show up and vote.
00:18:47.340 If you're going to go and drive out to the polling station
00:18:49.660 and you're not sure if a family member's going to go on their own,
00:18:52.440 make sure you bring them with you.
00:18:54.720 So that's it for me today, guys.
00:18:57.340 Thank you for watching the show.
00:18:58.600 Thank you for subscribing, doing all that great stuff.
00:19:01.080 And I will be back later with another video.
00:19:03.760 Thank you.